I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
I think that's a little harsh: India, Canada and the US are all pretty large in their own ways and manage democracy.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
Russia´s problem is not geography, but culture.
Russia only has one problem?
Not long until it has 99 problems but a Vladimirovich ain’t one.
We need a market in where Putin would go if he flees and pays a govt a lot of money to give him sanctuary.
My favourites are China, Saudi, South Africa and France to shack up with Roman Polanski and Roger.
Can’t see him choosing India and now Berlusconi has gone there’s no dolce vita on the horizon. Northern Cyprus to spend time with his cash - can’t see Erdogan wanting that hassle on his plate.
Any ideas?
A lamp post.
Will leave for the night shift with an idea though. If Putin has headed out of the city, who advised this and is this really a good idea? Your C in C jumps ship....keep him out of the local loop...
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
In general, I think you’d want to crush a rebellion as swiftly as possible, with overwhelming force, rather than let the rebels reach the capital.
Then again, if they are 200 kilometres away from the rebels they can't enter into face to face talks about defecting, can they?
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Well, if you are going to start quoting facts, I'm out of here. Fanciful conspiracies are so much more entertaining.
The "facts" quoted are indisputable when it comes to the dates of the invasions both in 2014 and 2022 and who was the party of the US presidency at the time of each invasion. Beyond that William"s facts prove nothing. They do not dispel my assertion that Trump was enabled by Putin, and NATO and tacitly Ukraine would be much weakened were Trump in power in the last 15 months.
Gardener's idea that Putin has deliberately let him get to Mosow to avoid engaging seems very far-fetched, to me.
Why show that much weakness in the cause of not starting a civil war ? He would never recover in terms of credibility, and he's not thick.
Its a bit like thinking Big Dom was always playing 4d chess.....
Well, he usually thought he was.
He just wasn't very good at it.
I am actually surprised he didn't have something left to fire at Boris when partygate report came out.
He seems to love the limelight, one reason he made a terrible adviser, so if he had anything we'd have heard about it. His time has come and gone I guess.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
We need a market in where Putin would go if he flees and pays a govt a lot of money to give him sanctuary.
My favourites are China, Saudi, South Africa and France to shack up with Roman Polanski and Roger.
Can’t see him choosing India and now Berlusconi has gone there’s no dolce vita on the horizon. Northern Cyprus to spend time with his cash - can’t see Erdogan wanting that hassle on his plate.
Any ideas?
Iran seems like a contender to me - nice spot overlooking the Red Sea? I don't see China wanting the hassle given the already fractious relations with the US. S.A similar.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
That the Conservatives have taken millions in donations from Russian sources is a matter of public record. That the civil service and apparently ministers took the right decisions re: Ukraine is not the same as saying that they took the right decisions concerning Russia. There is certainly legitimate questions to answer The same applies to Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage and their relationship with RT. To deny that their are legitimate questions is complacent and dangerous.
I got told off on here once for suggesting something about Farage & his wee mate Arron Banks and Russia. It was just one word but apparently bit legal.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
Word is that the Russian Federation forces haven't managed to deploy any tanks to Moscow either. The forces defending Moscow may well be outmatched by Wagner.
An argument over whether those forces should have met Wagner on the road south of Moscow, or are right to fortify positions in the city itself, is kinda academic if they'll lose such a fight wherever it happens.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
That the Conservatives have taken millions in donations from Russian sources is a matter of public record. That the civil service and apparently ministers took the right decisions re: Ukraine is not the same as saying that they took the right decisions concerning Russia. There is certainly legitimate questions to answer The same applies to Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage and their relationship with RT. To deny that their are legitimate questions is complacent and dangerous.
To the extent that could have conceivably influenced the Conservatives I suspect it would be on Russian oligarch business interests and policy thereof (like NonDoms, wealth taxes etc.) and not geopolitical policy.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
We need a market in where Putin would go if he flees and pays a govt a lot of money to give him sanctuary.
My favourites are China, Saudi, South Africa and France to shack up with Roman Polanski and Roger.
Can’t see him choosing India and now Berlusconi has gone there’s no dolce vita on the horizon. Northern Cyprus to spend time with his cash - can’t see Erdogan wanting that hassle on his plate.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
Dominic Cummings is a moron and nobody can tell me otherwise.
Actually I maintain the entire Tory election team has been utterly awful since Cameron left, they've just a Labour opposition that actively tried to repel their own voters so they looked like they knew what they were doing.
They are trusting Isaac Levido, the man who lost the Oz election by going on about woke issues when voters couldn't afford to eat advising the Tories to go on about woke issues whilst voters can't afford to eat.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
Word is that the Russian Federation forces haven't managed to deploy any tanks to Moscow either. The forces defending Moscow may well be outmatched by Wagner.
An argument over whether those forces should have met Wagner on the road south of Moscow, or are right to fortify positions in the city itself, is kinda academic if they'll lose such a fight wherever it happens.
The fact that Wagner has some tanks means diddle in Moscow, its down to motivation, numbers & training. You don't need armour to defeat a handful of armour. If you had hundreds of tanks versus no tanks, thats different but there is no evidence of that. Wagner strength is entirely unclear, suggestions range from 5k in Rostov through to claims of about 20k+ under arms. If either of those are right, The National Guard. FSB paramilitaries and military in and around Moscow would be a lot bigger and not at all badly equipped vs Wagner kit.
Wagner, based on those numbers, alone are unlikely to be able to pull this off, its going to take other actors to sit it out or come on side.
Reuters report Lukashenka negotiating with Wagner.
Interesting idea - even if they agree to de-escalte what does that mean moving forward? Prigohzin is facing charges, and even if Wagner forces return from whence they came, they can hardly be trusted by the MOD.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
I think we should all be grateful that you've give the wee terrier Bart his chew for today, otherwise he'd be yapping and peeing everywhere.
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · 17m Who is Dmitry Utkin, who reportedly leads the Wagner convoy headed toward Moscow now?
Born on June 11, 1970, Dmitry Utkin is a Russian intelligence special forces officer. He is considered to be the founder of the Wagner private military company.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
That the Conservatives have taken millions in donations from Russian sources is a matter of public record. That the civil service and apparently ministers took the right decisions re: Ukraine is not the same as saying that they took the right decisions concerning Russia. There is certainly legitimate questions to answer The same applies to Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage and their relationship with RT. To deny that their are legitimate questions is complacent and dangerous.
Bollocks, Salmond's production company sold independent prrogrammes to RT, a straight business transaction. Nothing like the Tories accepting millions for favours , visas and HOL seats.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
Word is that the Russian Federation forces haven't managed to deploy any tanks to Moscow either. The forces defending Moscow may well be outmatched by Wagner.
An argument over whether those forces should have met Wagner on the road south of Moscow, or are right to fortify positions in the city itself, is kinda academic if they'll lose such a fight wherever it happens.
Mark Galeotti in the Times this afternoon
"He [P] claims to have 25,000 Wagner fighters, but in the past has demonstrated a flair for spin and a tenuous grasp of mathematics. This is perhaps accurate if one includes the many Wagner deployments across Africa, but his force in Ukraine and Russia is closer to perhaps 10,000, and while it is possible there have been some defections to his side, it is also probable that there are mercenaries who decide not to join his quixotic cause."
I have not the first idea how many National Guard troops are in Moscow, but Galeotti again
"There are several military units based around the capital, including the 4th Guards “Kantemir” Tank Division and the 2nd Guards “Taman” Motorised Rifle Division. Both are relatively elite forces and even if many of their troops have been deployed to Ukraine, at least a regiment of each remains on base.
Beyond that, the paramilitary National Guard has the oversized 1st Separate Operational Purpose Division, also known as the Dzerzhinsky Division, based in the outskirts of the city and there are also numerous armed police and security units. Finally, the Federal Protection Service controls the Presidential Regiment, also known as the Kremlin Guard. Put all these together, and Prigozhin is already outnumbered, even before reinforcements are mustered and airpower deployed."
We must resist confusing what we want to happen with what we think will happen.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
That the Conservatives have taken millions in donations from Russian sources is a matter of public record. That the civil service and apparently ministers took the right decisions re: Ukraine is not the same as saying that they took the right decisions concerning Russia. There is certainly legitimate questions to answer The same applies to Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage and their relationship with RT. To deny that their are legitimate questions is complacent and dangerous.
That a large amount of this money from "Russian sources" is also from Ukrainian sources and has been from people lobbying against Putin and in favour of giving more support to Ukraine is also a matter of public record. There is a lot of xenophobia lurking behind claims of foreign influence in British politics.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
That the Conservatives have taken millions in donations from Russian sources is a matter of public record. That the civil service and apparently ministers took the right decisions re: Ukraine is not the same as saying that they took the right decisions concerning Russia. There is certainly legitimate questions to answer The same applies to Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage and their relationship with RT. To deny that their are legitimate questions is complacent and dangerous.
That a large amount of this money from "Russian sources" is also from Ukrainian sources and has been from people lobbying against Putin and in favour of giving more support to Ukraine is also a matter of public record. There is a lot of xenophobia lurking behind claims of foreign influence in British politics.
If this "Russian money" was supposed to buy influence, then it really has had the worst return on investment imaginable.
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
Prigozhin gives order to turn back due to "risk of blood being spilt." Reuters.
Confirmed now on BBC that Prigozhin has said that.
Disappointing anticlimax.
I could have sworn someone said on here that "Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all."
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
I got told off on here once for suggesting something about Farage & his wee mate Arron Banks and Russia. It was just one word but apparently bit legal.
Aaron Banks sues. PB is still owned (so to speak) by Mike Smithson, a British national and resident. Lawyers including Carter-Ruck have had a word in @OGH's shell-like in the past. Options such as re-establishing PB in places with a free-speech law (such as California) have not been pursued, so PB remains liable to E&W libel laws, which are harsh.
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · 17m Who is Dmitry Utkin, who reportedly leads the Wagner convoy headed toward Moscow now?
Born on June 11, 1970, Dmitry Utkin is a Russian intelligence special forces officer. He is considered to be the founder of the Wagner private military company.
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
"The state has long ceased to exist. Putin deliberately destroyed all the institutions of statehood. Corruption has finished off the rest. The end of this feast of life is imminent. Undermining bridges will not stop what is inevitable. Justice will prevail"
It is no longer just about the "military leadership" but Putin being personally attacked.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
I think it's imported via French/Latin rather than English.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
Nice try, Donald, but your master has already ushered in a real chamber of horrors both in Russia and in Ukraine. Real horrors, not your fictional, imagined horrors.
And 50m dead Russians is just as nonsensical as diminishing Ukraine's losses to supposedly just 7 Ukrainians dead rather than the plethora of war crimes and unspeakable horrors that have actually happened.
I don't know what happened to you, Donald, but your moral compass has been destroyed in making excuses and belittling the unspeakable horrors that have actually occurred in the real world in the past 16 months and longer.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
Always funny how Putinbots create ridiculous thought experiments rather than deal with actual reality.
What's been happening in the oil and natural gas markets? Traders must be trying to figure out how to price these events into future prices. (And I am very glad I don't have those problems to work on.)
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
An odd argument. Because it does not look to the future.
You are suggesting that the Second World War should not have been fought, because a lot of Germans were killed?
Prigozhin, if he's not removed, now looks very powerful.
He can now launch an attempted coup, and survive.
His survival remains to be seen. If I were him I'd avoid sushi, high windows and tea he doesn't make himself for the next few years.
I imagine he realised he didn't have the men as most units of the Russian state remained loyal to Putin, but we'll have to wait at least a few days and maybe years to see if I'm right or not.
Anyway, back to obsessing about random opinion polls and by-elections.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
"...No, I was genuinely being serious on betting. If the liquidity was big enough and I could open an account in time I'd put down a grand, on the grounds that stupid odds like that don't happen often. I want Prigozhin to cut off Putin's balls and eat them in front of him before throwing him into the lava, but betting is betting and 300/1 is badly mispriced. But the liquidity is only 10K and I don't do online. ..."
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
I think it's imported via French/Latin rather than English.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
Always funny how Putinbots create ridiculous thought experiments rather than deal with actual reality.
Always funny how stupid stupid people are at understanding the value of ridiculous thought experiments in illuminating actual reality.
Let me guess, you think Schrodinger was a real shit, putting that poor cat in that box?
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
A wholly peaceful demonstration march that shot down several helicopters and an aircraft?
Was this all a Kremlin black op, designed to make Vlad look omnipotent?
It hasn't done that though. He went on TV to declare, essentially, that he'd lost control, Wagner kept going, and now the Belarussians have had to bail him out.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I didn't conflate it. The example was to show the absurdity of your vacuous posturing.
Whatever, Donald.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
You seem to be losing it completely now. I think I preferred the vacuous posturing. Can we get back to that?
Sorry Donald, I have no respect for your apologism of Putin.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
It depends on scale, nature and outcomes. Eg just to illustrate not a literal prediction: a Russian civil war kills 50m Russians and lays waste to the country and ushers in a chamber of horrors there, but it hastens the liberation of Ukraine. That's only a no brainer good thing to somebody lacking one. A working moral compass will not consider Russian lives to be worthless purely because Putin is an evil dictator who has unleashed terror on Ukraine.
Nice try, Donald, but your master has already ushered in a real chamber of horrors both in Russia and in Ukraine. Real horrors, not your fictional, imagined horrors.
And 50m dead Russians is just as nonsensical as diminishing Ukraine's losses to supposedly just 7 Ukrainians dead rather than the plethora of war crimes and unspeakable horrors that have actually happened.
I don't know what happened to you, Donald, but your moral compass has been destroyed in making excuses and belittling the unspeakable horrors that have actually occurred in the real world in the past 16 months and longer.
Gosh you make me sound terrible. I'd give myself a rollicking too if any part of this were anything but the ravings of a juvenile posturing phony.
Was this all a Kremlin black op, designed to make Vlad look omnipotent?
"Hey Vlad! I'll get a hard bastard to invade Russia! You shit your pants and fuck off to Saint Petersburg whilst Lukashenko - no, stay with me - Lukashenko negotiates with him and gets him to leave, then after a decent interval when you've changed your pants you can came out and look really heroic, if a bit smelly-poo-bottom. Whaddya think?"
@kinabalu is not a Russian bot just because you disagree with him you know.
No, he's a Putin apologist because he trivialises the war crimes happening in Ukraine equating it to just "7 deaths" and thinks its better to have Russians killing Ukrainians than other Russians.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
A wholly peaceful demonstration march that shot down several helicopters and an aircraft?
@kinabalu is not a Russian bot just because you disagree with him you know.
No, he's a Putin apologist because he trivialises the war crimes happening in Ukraine equating it to just "7 deaths" and thinks its better to have Russians killing Ukrainians than other Russians.
I haven't seen him say there are only 7 deaths in Ukraine. All I've seen him say is that he'd rather needless lives were not lost in a bloody civil war. I tend to agree with that POV if it can be avoided.
I think Putin is a thoroughly wicked man but just because he is, it doesn't mean I'd like to see Russians killed.
War is tragic - and that doesn't excuse any of his actions nor all the people he has killed in Ukraine, before I get accused of being a Russian stooge too.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Wonder if 'according to plan' is a deliberate slip, or just an odd translation.
No, it's a pretty accurate translation. He said "согласно плану".
What sort of useless peasant language has to borrow "plan" from English?
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
A wholly peaceful demonstration march that shot down several helicopters and an aircraft?
Comments
He just wasn't very good at it.
Will leave for the night shift with an idea though. If Putin has headed out of the city, who advised this and is this really a good idea? Your C in C jumps ship....keep him out of the local loop...
So facts. Huh?
Large amounts of salt required at the moment.
An argument over whether those forces should have met Wagner on the road south of Moscow, or are right to fortify positions in the city itself, is kinda academic if they'll lose such a fight wherever it happens.
There is no absurdity and no vacuity except your excuses.
Ukraine hasn't lost 7 people in this conflict, Donald. Stop praising Putin's "genius".
Farage and Salmond could be a different ballgame.
https://twitter.com/cjingrassia/status/1672648040199356417?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Hence Lukashenko might be the one now making the decisions, as Progozhin gets nearer and nearer to Moscow.
If after all the war crimes, all the genocide, all the atrocities and all the fatalities you still won't accept that Russians fighting Ukrainians is worse than Russians fighting Russians, then your moral compass is completely destroyed.
Actually I maintain the entire Tory election team has been utterly awful since Cameron left, they've just a Labour opposition that actively tried to repel their own voters so they looked like they knew what they were doing.
They are trusting Isaac Levido, the man who lost the Oz election by going on about woke issues when voters couldn't afford to eat advising the Tories to go on about woke issues whilst voters can't afford to eat.
Wagner, based on those numbers, alone are unlikely to be able to pull this off, its going to take other actors to sit it out or come on side.
Not as much movement north from Tula, and Lukashenko apparently in talks. Maybe he could even take over, as I mentioned yesterday.
@Gerashchenko_en
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17m
Who is Dmitry Utkin, who reportedly leads the Wagner convoy headed toward Moscow now?
Born on June 11, 1970, Dmitry Utkin is a Russian intelligence special forces officer. He is considered to be the founder of the Wagner private military company.
It was his call sign.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en
====
Looks a right thug frankly.
Remember the earlier posts, the Kremlin has been in communication with Prigozhin so don't rule it out that something is going on there.
Its all too fluid for any certainty.
Reuters.
"He [P] claims to have 25,000 Wagner fighters, but in the past has demonstrated a flair for spin and a tenuous grasp of mathematics. This is perhaps accurate if one includes the many Wagner deployments across Africa, but his force in Ukraine and Russia is closer to perhaps 10,000, and while it is possible there have been some defections to his side, it is also probable that there are mercenaries who decide not to join his quixotic cause."
I have not the first idea how many National Guard troops are in Moscow, but Galeotti again
"There are several military units based around the capital, including the 4th Guards “Kantemir” Tank Division and the 2nd Guards “Taman” Motorised Rifle Division. Both are relatively elite forces and even if many of their troops have been deployed to Ukraine, at least a regiment of each remains on base.
Beyond that, the paramilitary National Guard has the oversized 1st Separate Operational Purpose Division, also known as the Dzerzhinsky Division, based in the outskirts of the city and there are also numerous armed police and security units. Finally, the Federal Protection Service controls the Presidential Regiment, also known as the Kremlin Guard. Put all these together, and Prigozhin is already outnumbered, even before reinforcements are mustered and airpower deployed."
We must resist confusing what we want to happen with what we think will happen.
The whole episode has not been great for his credibility .
He was killed in the war.
In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Disappointing anticlimax.
@wartranslated
Prigozhin says it's over:
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540
He can now launch an attempted coup, and survive.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all."
Substantively, it probably just means "according to *our* plan - to stage a wholly peaceful demonstration march on Moscow to ensure that our truth was heard
Props to @kinabalu if he did place that bet - vvp back in from 300 to 1.7.
A lot at stake in the short-term.
"The state has long ceased to exist. Putin deliberately destroyed all the institutions of statehood. Corruption has finished off the rest. The end of this feast of life is imminent. Undermining bridges will not stop what is inevitable. Justice will prevail"
It is no longer just about the "military leadership" but Putin being personally attacked.
@michaelh992
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3m
Replying to
@michaelh992
The only thing, Prigozhin had going for him, was time.
He was moving very fast, at a time when the Russian army still seemed stunned and disorganized.
The moment he loses this advantage, he is as good as dead to me - just a matter of (again) time.
And 50m dead Russians is just as nonsensical as diminishing Ukraine's losses to supposedly just 7 Ukrainians dead rather than the plethora of war crimes and unspeakable horrors that have actually happened.
I don't know what happened to you, Donald, but your moral compass has been destroyed in making excuses and belittling the unspeakable horrors that have actually occurred in the real world in the past 16 months and longer.
You are suggesting that the Second World War should not have been fought, because a lot of Germans were killed?
I imagine he realised he didn't have the men as most units of the Russian state remained loyal to Putin, but we'll have to wait at least a few days and maybe years to see if I'm right or not.
Anyway, back to obsessing about random opinion polls and by-elections.
That's why I think he might step in, especially as Putin is weakened now.
"..That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs? https://smarkets.com/event/42623628/politics/europe/2025/01/01/00-00/russia/2024/04/07/12-00/2024-russian-presidential-election ..."
Comment by viewcode 4:23PM
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4448717#Comment_4448717
"...No, I was genuinely being serious on betting. If the liquidity was big enough and I could open an account in time I'd put down a grand, on the grounds that stupid odds like that don't happen often. I want Prigozhin to cut off Putin's balls and eat them in front of him before throwing him into the lava, but betting is betting and 300/1 is badly mispriced. But the liquidity is only 10K and I don't do online.
Comment by viewcode 4:30PM
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4448727#Comment_4448727
He's had to go on national tv to plead for stability, as in an emergency.
Let me guess, you think Schrodinger was a real shit, putting that poor cat in that box?
@wartranslated
·
6m
You won't believe it but some Wagner guys seem really mad about this.
Prigozhin may be Kornilov, but Putin definitely looks like the panicky and indecisive Kerensky.
I think Putin is a thoroughly wicked man but just because he is, it doesn't mean I'd like to see Russians killed.
War is tragic - and that doesn't excuse any of his actions nor all the people he has killed in Ukraine, before I get accused of being a Russian stooge too.
Lukashenko takes over ?