Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Why do we trust him anymore than Putin? Bizarre.
Trust has nothing to do with it, but it should be obvious that Prigozhin has a better handle on the reality of the situation at the moment than Putin.
People used to say that about Putin. I don't believe a word any of them say.
Prigozhin is no friend of Ukraine or the West, but at least he would be in a position to end the war in Ukraine without personal loss. Unlike Putin.
Prigozhin has been lobbing insults at Russia’s military leadership for many weeks, mocking Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Minister of Defense, as lazy, and describing the chief of the general staff as prone to “paranoid tantrums.” On Friday, he broke with the official narrative and directly blamed them, and their oligarch friends, for launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine did not provoke Russia on February 24, he said: Instead, Russian elites had been pillaging the territories of Donbas they’ve occupied since 2014, and became greedy for more. His message was clear: The Russian military launched a pointless war, ran it incompetently, and killed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers unnecessarily.
This is exactly the narrative that will end the war in Ukraine. Not anti-war protesters, but right wing nationalists saying it was a fool's errand. As we saw with Iraq, it will cause a sea change in opinion in Russia as everything spills out. Ukraine will break through the Russian lines in the chaos and then the six month recruits will abandon their posts.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Is that twitter account somewhat reliable? I'm always a little suspect of handles on there ending with about 10 numbers.
I have no idea. Cannot warrant for quality. I'll have a look.
Had a look. Cannot tell if kosher. Please feel free to ignore. https://liveuamap.com still good tho.
Cheers. I had a scout round for news about martial law announcements and could only find this kind of thing so _possibly_ an honest bit of confusion by the tweeter. Possibly.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Why do we trust him anymore than Putin? Bizarre.
Trust has nothing to do with it, but it should be obvious that Prigozhin has a better handle on the reality of the situation at the moment than Putin.
If only Twitter had a global curation team of multi-lingual ex-journalists whose job it is to verify & fact check events. They could even create moments/provide trend descriptions to help users make informed assessments about what is really happening… can you imagine!
Deputy secretary of Russia's security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of 'bandits' - TASS https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672624098059354112
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Isn't the working hypothesis that Putin supports both sides of the culture war? None of it actually matters to him, it's just a way of maximising division.
Deputy secretary of Russia's security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of 'bandits' - TASS https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672624098059354112
Is that twitter account somewhat reliable? I'm always a little suspect of handles on there ending with about 10 numbers.
I have no idea. Cannot warrant for quality. I'll have a look.
Had a look. Cannot tell if kosher. Please feel free to ignore. https://liveuamap.com still good tho.
Cheers. I had a scout round for news about martial law announcements and could only find this kind of thing so _possibly_ an honest bit of confusion by the tweeter. Possibly.
"Russia: Putin signs law permitting 30 day detention for breaking martial law regime"
Gulfnews is a local paper here in Dubai. Generally sound on international stories. BBC have reported the same about Putin signing a law allowing detention.
Tanks or nukes? I cannot remember which were to be used on the Scots and which on the French.
The nukes were for the Spanish if they tried to reclaim Gib, as I recall. Rather odd as he is generally very pro the right wing in Spain for whom that is a cardinal policy.
Twitter used to be so good for following events like this. It was relatively easy to establish the credibility of different accounts. Now its just reams and reams of blue check crap as the replies to each good post.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
NYT live blog (3min ago) - Belarus, Russia’s neighbor and close ally, urged Russians to hear “the voice of reason,” warning that the “the future of the Slavic world, the fate of millions of our people is being decided” by the unfolding turmoil. A statement issued by the country's Security Council avoided apportioning blame but said that “what is happening is not worth the consequences, the losses that emotional decisions and illegal actions can lead to.”
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Isn't the working hypothesis that Putin supports both sides of the culture war? None of it actually matters to him, it's just a way of maximising division.
Its not a working hypothesis. There was clear evidence that this is exactly what was happening prior to 2016. Obama's hire to look into this found that they were setting up facebook groups targeted at various demographics and then would on a regular basis ensure a story showing the out-group doing something bad got lots of traction.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Twitter used to be so good for following events like this. It was relatively easy to establish the credibility of different accounts. Now its just reams and reams of blue check crap as the replies to each good post.
Wages of Musk kowtowing to Trump . . . Erdogan . . . Putin.
What will be interesting is whether this will replace the figurehead or the regime? In other words, will there be purges, revelations of what really went on, trials and denunciations? Or not? The former might make many overseas figures less than comfortable.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
The Ukrainian military has officially officially confirmed the liberation of a small area near Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since 2014
NYT live blog (3min ago) - Belarus, Russia’s neighbor and close ally, urged Russians to hear “the voice of reason,” warning that the “the future of the Slavic world, the fate of millions of our people is being decided” by the unfolding turmoil. A statement issued by the country's Security Council avoided apportioning blame but said that “what is happening is not worth the consequences, the losses that emotional decisions and illegal actions can lead to.”
If only Twitter had a global curation team of multi-lingual ex-journalists whose job it is to verify & fact check events. They could even create moments/provide trend descriptions to help users make informed assessments about what is really happening… can you imagine!
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Isn't the working hypothesis that Putin supports both sides of the culture war? None of it actually matters to him, it's just a way of maximising division.
This view again overstates his ability to have a direct influence on Western societies. The impact of sending a bit of money to BLM as well as a bit of money to the NRA is marginal because they have no shortage of organic support.
When I say Putin is taking sides, I don't mean in terms of providing active support but in terms of his own positioning with things like referring to JK Rowling in his speeches.
An incredible vaccination roll-out, the biggest upgrade in America infrastructure since the New Deal, the repatriation of the semiconductors industry from China, the first major gun safety bill in decades, and now the collapse of Putin.
Joe Biden has had an incredibly successful presidency.
Can I add my tuppence to say how good this forum's been for collating the info and how far ahead it's been of "conventional" news.
I know they need to verify things, but have had Sky News rolling in the background all day and they've basically said the same 2 or 3 things all day, really - here's Rostov, there's a bit of an oil depot fire in Voronezh, Wagner moving north, who is this guy Prigozhin? When I've flicked to BBC news it's not been much different.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Isn't the working hypothesis that Putin supports both sides of the culture war? None of it actually matters to him, it's just a way of maximising division.
This view again overstates his ability to have a direct influence on Western societies. The impact of sending a bit of money to BLM as well as a bit of money to the NRA is marginal because they have no shortage of organic support.
When I say Putin is taking sides, I don't mean in terms of providing active support but in terms of his own positioning with things like referring to JK Rowling in his speeches.
The Wikileaks releases on Clinton's emails definitely made the difference in her loss to Trump.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
The Ukrainian military has officially officially confirmed the liberation of a small area near Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since 2014
The withdrawal of Wagner and Chechen troops into Russia is denuding the so-called "blocking troops", i.e. the troops who fire at their own front line if they retreat or attempt to surrender. I think we will now see large changes in the line over the next week.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
Isn't the working hypothesis that Putin supports both sides of the culture war? None of it actually matters to him, it's just a way of maximising division.
This view again overstates his ability to have a direct influence on Western societies. The impact of sending a bit of money to BLM as well as a bit of money to the NRA is marginal because they have no shortage of organic support.
When I say Putin is taking sides, I don't mean in terms of providing active support but in terms of his own positioning with things like referring to JK Rowling in his speeches.
Personally I’m looking forward to that moment when one of those Russian tv arseholes goes full Kent Brockman and welcomes his new Wagner overlords on live prime time tv.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
Can I add my tuppence to say how good this forum's been for collating the info and how far ahead it's been of "conventional" news.
I know they need to verify things, but have had Sky News rolling in the background all day and they've basically said the same 2 or 3 things all day, really - here's Rostov, there's a bit of an oil depot fire in Voronezh, Wagner moving north, who is this guy Prigozhin? When I've flicked to BBC news it's not been much different.
It is the same for the BBC. Lots of not particularly insightful commentary but very little breaking news. Twitter used to be excellent at this but now it has just become full of crap.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
When the troops in Moscow make that calculation it’s them with no experience v a load of violent crims who’ve just spent months fighting brutal house to house, street to street combat.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Prigozhin needs to seize the control of the state broadcaster.
Latvia and Estonia have completely closed their borders with Russia, forces on high alert. Chaos in Russian airports and railway stations. Panic and disintegration everywhere.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Prigozhin needs to seize the state broadcaster.
No, he needs to kill Putin. Everything else follows.
The Ukrainian military has officially officially confirmed the liberation of a small area near Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since 2014
The withdrawal of Wagner and Chechen troops into Russia is denuding the so-called "blocking troops", i.e. the troops who fire at their own front line if they retreat or attempt to surrender. I think we will now see large changes in the line over the next week.
Not really. The Ukrainians often only announce progess days after it occurs, its been a feature of their OPSEC even though rumours do pop up ahead. The lack of informal feedback from the Ukrainian side can often be a sign that things are moving, not that they are going badly. Breakthroughs on the battlefield are just as likely driven by the fact that the Ukrainians have, in some areas, started to really degrade Russian artillery (a big area of Russian quantitative if not qualitative advantage still) and are homing in a lot on the logistics chain to some effect. Once you start to strangle those advantages you look to push your brgades not involved yet. The problem of Russian tactical aviation, however, mainly in the form of attack helicopters remains.
The situation in Russia is a joker card that is impossible to say what difference it will make to Russian disposition and motivation in Ukraine but its unlikely to be positive.
Can I add my tuppence to say how good this forum's been for collating the info and how far ahead it's been of "conventional" news.
I know they need to verify things, but have had Sky News rolling in the background all day and they've basically said the same 2 or 3 things all day, really - here's Rostov, there's a bit of an oil depot fire in Voronezh, Wagner moving north, who is this guy Prigozhin? When I've flicked to BBC news it's not been much different.
It is the same for the BBC. Lots of not particularly insightful commentary but very little breaking news. Twitter used to be excellent at this but now it has just become full of crap.
Twitter was always full of crap.
This site has always been excellent for filtering the good from the crap.
NYT live blog (3min ago) - Belarus, Russia’s neighbor and close ally, urged Russians to hear “the voice of reason,” warning that the “the future of the Slavic world, the fate of millions of our people is being decided” by the unfolding turmoil. A statement issued by the country's Security Council avoided apportioning blame but said that “what is happening is not worth the consequences, the losses that emotional decisions and illegal actions can lead to.”
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Unless Putin flees of course.
If Putin hasn't fled, I don't think he lives to tomorrow morning.
If he has, then he might live a bit longer but once he's out of Moscow, his power is gone with him.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Unless Putin flees of course.
If Putin hasn't fled, I don't think he lives to tomorrow morning.
If he has, then he might live a bit longer but once he's out of Moscow, his power is gone with him.
I don't know whether he's fled or not. But the Mayor of Moscow seems to be taking the decisions on the practicalities for ordinary Muscovites.
A old mardy-arse with a bad temper shows up Putin as being the Wizard from the land of Oz, staning on his box with a megaphone in hand. Putin will probably win in the end but his credibility is shot.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Unless Putin flees of course.
If Putin hasn't fled, I don't think he lives to tomorrow morning.
If he has, then he might live a bit longer but once he's out of Moscow, his power is gone with him.
I don't know whether he's fled or not. But the Mayor of Moscow seems to be taking the decisions on the practicalities for ordinary Muscovites.
If he introduces ULEZ then it will mess up Wagner’s plans as they won’t be able to bring their vehicles in as all their cash was seized today.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
Surely they would have used the air force long before now if they could.
They have done, to an extent, but the claim is that the Wagner column is moving too fast. The airforce is tasked to hit it at a point, but when they get there Wagner have gone already - this is a feature of the slow target acquisition to command issued that we've seen in the war already.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Unless Putin flees of course.
If Putin hasn't fled, I don't think he lives to tomorrow morning.
If he has, then he might live a bit longer but once he's out of Moscow, his power is gone with him.
I'm not a great believer in heaven and hell so I can only hope that when Putin dies it hurts.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
When the troops in Moscow make that calculation it’s them with no experience v a load of violent crims who’ve just spent months fighting brutal house to house, street to street combat.
What would you do if you were a troop in Moscow right now? Personally, I'd be trying to find a way, legal or otherwise, of being as far from Moscow as possible.
PM. The radio show, not Rishi, much better in summarising the situation. 500 troops in this column. And three planes shot down by it. Chechens in a stand off in Rostov. Prigozhin still in Rostov.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
Surely they would have used the air force long before now if they could.
They have done, to an extent, but the claim is that the Wagner column is moving too fast. The airforce is tasked to hit it at a point, but when they get there Wagner have gone already - this is a feature of the slow target acquisition to command issued that we've seen in the war already.
I can't believe they wouldn't have hit a few more times if they could.
Latvia and Estonia have completely closed their borders with Russia, forces on high alert. Chaos in Russian airports and railway stations. Panic and disintegration everywhere.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
That's only true if you see this through the eyes of "trans". If you look at it from a homosexual rights perspective, then it's not true at all.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
When the troops in Moscow make that calculation it’s them with no experience v a load of violent crims who’ve just spent months fighting brutal house to house, street to street combat.
What would you do if you were a troop in Moscow right now? Personally, I'd be trying to find a way, legal or otherwise, of being as far from Moscow as possible.
I would put on my full Armchair General dress and retire to my computer somewhere very far away!
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
Surely they would have used the air force long before now if they could.
They have done, to an extent, but the claim is that the Wagner column is moving too fast. The airforce is tasked to hit it at a point, but when they get there Wagner have gone already - this is a feature of the slow target acquisition to command issued that we've seen in the war already.
I can't believe they wouldn't have hit a few more times if they could.
I don't think Putin has the support.
Which is why the claim just made on the BBC that they shot three planes down might make some sense. Haven't heard that elsewhere. They tried. But got beaten.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Prigozhin needs to seize the control of the state broadcaster.
My guess is, he's already read, and re-read, THE handbook:
Abrupt and destructive separation of alliance between Kremlin and Wagner will have major ramifications for Moscow's projection of power and influence in:
The Ukrainian military has officially officially confirmed the liberation of a small area near Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since 2014
The withdrawal of Wagner and Chechen troops into Russia is denuding the so-called "blocking troops", i.e. the troops who fire at their own front line if they retreat or attempt to surrender. I think we will now see large changes in the line over the next week.
Not really. The Ukrainians often only announce progess days after it occurs, its been a feature of their OPSEC even though rumours do pop up ahead. The lack of informal feedback from the Ukrainian side can often be a sign that things are moving, not that they are going badly. Breakthroughs on the battlefield are just as likely driven by the fact that the Ukrainians have, in some areas, started to really degrade Russian artillery (a big area of Russian quantitative if not qualitative advantage still) and are homing in a lot on the logistics chain to some effect. Once you start to strangle those advantages you look to push your brgades not involved yet. The problem of Russian tactical aviation, however, mainly in the form of attack helicopters remains.
The situation in Russia is a joker card that is impossible to say what difference it will make to Russian disposition and motivation in Ukraine but its unlikely to be positive.
Not sure what you are trying to say here. Of course the ZSU are mashing all the site you suggest and more, but losing the Russian "blocking" troops will allow the Russian frontlines either to surrender of collapse. Ed Lucas also thinks that a very large amount of territory will be dumped on Ukraine all at once.
NYT live blog - The Russian ruble slid to its weakest level against the dollar in more than a year on Friday, before the trading markets closed, and at least one currency exchange service halted ruble transfers because of uncertainty about the price of the currency.
The ruble fell to a value of 84 per U.S. dollar on Friday, with the Russian business newspaper RBK later reporting that the domestic Tinkoff Bank was offering customers an exchange rate of 94.9 rubles per U.S. dollar. On Saturday, Wise, an international currency transfer service, had a note on its website that it had temporarily suspended ruble transfers. “We’re working hard on reopening this route,” the note said.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
One day, Russian hear knock on door. ”Who is?” Russian say. ”Is potato man. I come give free potato.” Russian is very excite and open door. Is not potato man. Is Wagner mercenary.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Horseshit.
It's true. People see the scapegoating of Russia for the 2016 loss, the corruption of the Biden family's business dealings and put 2 and 2 together to make 5.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 38m You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
How many of the security forces in Moscow will fight ? They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
When the troops in Moscow make that calculation it’s them with no experience v a load of violent crims who’ve just spent months fighting brutal house to house, street to street combat.
What would you do if you were a troop in Moscow right now? Personally, I'd be trying to find a way, legal or otherwise, of being as far from Moscow as possible.
It's called French leave (no intentional aspersions caste on our fine Gallic neighbours)
Comments
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd09366-25db-4057-a41d-0ea04b659d97
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 22% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 8% (-)
REF: 7% (-)
via @YouGov, 20 - 21 Jun
25 point lead.
Reasonable chance my 30 point lead guess comes true
Moscow has tank holidays....
Prigozhin has been lobbing insults at Russia’s military leadership for many weeks, mocking Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Minister of Defense, as lazy, and describing the chief of the general staff as prone to “paranoid tantrums.” On Friday, he broke with the official narrative and directly blamed them, and their oligarch friends, for launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine did not provoke Russia on February 24, he said: Instead, Russian elites had been pillaging the territories of Donbas they’ve occupied since 2014, and became greedy for more. His message was clear: The Russian military launched a pointless war, ran it incompetently, and killed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers unnecessarily.
This is exactly the narrative that will end the war in Ukraine. Not anti-war protesters, but right wing nationalists saying it was a fool's errand. As we saw with Iraq, it will cause a sea change in opinion in Russia as everything spills out. Ukraine will break through the Russian lines in the chaos and then the six month recruits will abandon their posts.
https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/russia-putin-signs-law-permitting-30-day-detention-for-breaking-martial-law-regime-1.96598023
"Russia: Putin signs law permitting 30 day detention for breaking martial law regime"
https://twitter.com/NicKeaney/status/1672630888411144194
Thanks Elon
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672624098059354112
Which ones ?
The world needs peace!
Moscow should cede territory to Wagner and not prolong this needless suffering
https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1672603535035228160
Also, thoughts & prayers for Trump.
@PhillipsPOBrien
·
38m
You know that everyone around Putin is now desperately calculating the odds….
If that's correct, as Sandpit says, maybe this lot have a come from somewhere much nearer than Rostov-on-Don, because it's only about 77 miles.
https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1672610527200043010
In other words, will there be purges, revelations of what really went on, trials and denunciations?
Or not?
The former might make many overseas figures less than comfortable.
The Ukrainian military has officially officially confirmed the liberation of a small area near Donetsk, which had been under Russian control since 2014
It was recaptured a week ago but its wasn't reported due to info security reasons.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1672613117547761666
When I say Putin is taking sides, I don't mean in terms of providing active support but in terms of his own positioning with things like referring to JK Rowling in his speeches.
Joe Biden has had an incredibly successful presidency.
I know they need to verify things, but have had Sky News rolling in the background all day and they've basically said the same 2 or 3 things all day, really - here's Rostov, there's a bit of an oil depot fire in Voronezh, Wagner moving north, who is this guy Prigozhin? When I've flicked to BBC news it's not been much different.
They probably don't have that many heavy weapons.
There's still the airforce, perhaps.
"Russia: Putin's Kremlin targets LGBT in new crackdown" - 23rd January 2023.
I don't know how accurate Rai News is, ofcourse, but I know they've got a much better reputation for credibility than the ex-Berlusconi channels.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1672633154853650433
"Moscow's mayor tells people to stay at home as rebel mercenary vehicles seen on road to Russia's capital "
THREAD. List of Wagner military atrocities and war crimes in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine.
1. The Moura Massacre, Mali. Wagner murdered up to 500 civillians and buried them in mass graves. March 27, 2022 – March 31, 2022....
https://twitter.com/DrewPavlou/status/1672593390226251776
It won't be an improvement over Putin, even if it ends the war.
Ukraine in NATO remains an urgent priority.
I think this might be all over by then
A complete psychopathic-type character, but also more pragmatic, and not so prone to flights of dreaming or fancy as Putin.
https://www.ft.com/content/fd870fa9-007a-4cd4-bffc-d72aa2a35767
The situation in Russia is a joker card that is impossible to say what difference it will make to Russian disposition and motivation in Ukraine but its unlikely to be positive.
This site has always been excellent for filtering the good from the crap.
If Putin hasn't fled, I don't think he lives to tomorrow morning.
If he has, then he might live a bit longer but once he's out of Moscow, his power is gone with him.
Well done your wife having such a major influence at such a pivotal time.
But the Mayor of Moscow seems to be taking the decisions on the practicalities for ordinary Muscovites.
A old mardy-arse with a bad temper shows up Putin as being the Wizard from the land of Oz, staning on his box with a megaphone in hand. Putin will probably win in the end but his credibility is shot.
Romanian Armed forces on general alert.
500 troops in this column. And three planes shot down by it.
Chechens in a stand off in Rostov.
Prigozhin still in Rostov.
I don't think Putin has the support.
That would make sense, as Sandpit says, considering how fast it seems to be.
Haven't heard that elsewhere.
They tried. But got beaten.
https://www.amazon.com/Coup-dÉtat-Practical-Handbook-Revised/dp/0674737261
@HenryJFoy
Abrupt and destructive separation of alliance between Kremlin and Wagner will have major ramifications for Moscow's projection of power and influence in:
Mali
CAR
Libya
Sudan
Mozambique
and Syria
This is not just about Russia and Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1672545272377798657
The ruble fell to a value of 84 per U.S. dollar on Friday, with the Russian business newspaper RBK later reporting that the domestic Tinkoff Bank was offering customers an exchange rate of 94.9 rubles per U.S. dollar. On Saturday, Wise, an international currency transfer service, had a note on its website that it had temporarily suspended ruble transfers. “We’re working hard on reopening this route,” the note said.
Provided it's Russians that do it.
”Who is?” Russian say.
”Is potato man. I come give free potato.”
Russian is very excite and open door.
Is not potato man. Is Wagner mercenary.