Russian social media, thanks to my wife, says that it’s now impossible to get a plane ticket out of Moscow tonight, irrespective of the destination.
To be fair it's equally impossible to get a train ticket out of Manchester tonight, but that's due to Transpennine Express rather than the Wagner Group.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Horseshit.
I think Hilary and the trannies made me support Putin is a perfectly valid defence.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2021. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Biden's actions in Afghanistan played a role too. Putin saw America retreating there, and assumed that meant it had no appetite for a fight anywhere.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2021. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
Well indeed. Not to mention the complete lack of any public demonstrations or mobilisations of citizens to defend the regime.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Nevertheless, you have chosen to ignore the many, many words of praise that Trump has heaped on Putin over the years.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
No, that’s a pitiful excuse. It was their choice to side with a murderous dictator.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
"Moscow’s mayor has urged residents to stay inside as Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenary force storm to within just 250 miles of the capital.
“The situation is difficult,” said Sergei Sobyanin.
“I ask you to refrain from travelling around the city as much as possible,” he said, warning that roads may also be closed.
By around 5pm local time, Prigozhin’s forces were said to be “moving across” the Lipetsk region, some 250 miles south of Moscow, the local governor said.
The mutineers are seeking to advance to the capital and overthrow Russia’s military leadership."
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Trump-loving AND pro-UKR really does NOT compute. At least in realm of logic; un-magical dis-reality?
I have a UK friend who left Dubai to go and live with his wife in Russia, Doesnt look like a good call atm
Leaving Dubai is never a bad call.
What makes you say that? The most socially liberal city in the Gulf region
Full of ghastlies though. Is that unfair? I judge from afar.
I don't think that's fair. The Brits in Dubai I know are all perfectly pleasant, though it's a small sample. But none of them are likely to be attracting the attention that the ghastlies do.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Lord Lebedev says hello.
What nonsense and you should know better than that. Britain has been a consistent and steadfast ally of Ukraine. Don't be silly.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Not in the same way but in a different way. Corbyn would say, "NATO provoked this and intervening is wrong," whereas Trump would ask, "What's in it for us?"
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Reuters reporter (via BBC Radio news) saying fighting has started on the column heading to Moscow - air attacks via helicopter.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Horseshit.
I think Hilary and the trannies made me support Putin is a perfectly valid defence.
Never understood the hostility to pocket size radios myself...
NYT live blog - President Biden delayed his departure for Camp David on Saturday to consult with advisers and spoke with European leaders about the crisis. Those on the call included President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain. “The leaders discussed the situation in Russia,” the White House said in a statement. “They also affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine.”
"Moscow’s mayor has urged residents to stay inside as Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenary force storm to within just 250 miles of the capital.
“The situation is difficult,” said Sergei Sobyanin.
“I ask you to refrain from travelling around the city as much as possible,” he said, warning that roads may also be closed.
By around 5pm local time, Prigozhin’s forces were said to be “moving across” the Lipetsk region, some 250 miles south of Moscow, the local governor said.
The mutineers are seeking to advance to the capital and overthrow Russia’s military leadership."
So what do we really know about this stuff in Russia?
Whilst some Moscow watchers have suggested months ago that this was brewing it doesnt look to be an overwhelming common suggestion.
Its launch point in Rostov is no surprise, it was announced that Wagner forces in the Ukraine theater were going there for R&R. The rumours were that Wagner was going to send some of these abroad where the money and fun is probably a lot more interesting. Clearly they didnt disperse at all. its also a military hub so not short of kit.
The questions around whether this is going to be succesful then are:
How many people has Wagner mustered?
Whos backing this? It is likely that some within the military/security/governemnt appartus are onboard, if not actively, certainly in terms of not standling in their way. Given the distance between the supposed launch point and Moscow, you'd think the defence might be somewhat further south than it appears (and we don't know for sure). Whilst the Kadryovite forces have left Ukraine and reportedly heading to Rostov, you'd be looking to stop this well out of the way of your capital.
Where are all the Wagner forces? It would not surprise to see some forming up elsewhere, including in the capital. If we see military units come out for Prigozhin in the coming hours, Putin's issue multiplies in scale.
Who is backing Putin? The assumption at this point is that some elements of the military hierarchy are not with him/sitting in the fence as are some of the units therein. You'd assume the National Guard is onboard, it was seen to be Putins own militia but not a peep from the boss there which is interesting. FSB? No idea. The head of the SVR has come out for Putin but he hasnt got a militia.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
As of now the authorities at the Kremlin are still trying to talk to Prigozhin. They already tried to broker something (Putin included) in the last couple of days but Mr Angry didnt seem to be interested.
The motivation behind this is easy enough. Prigozhin hads big design plans and has probably assumed he is a dead man walking anyway, so fuck it.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Well, if you are going to start quoting facts, I'm out of here. Fanciful conspiracies are so much more entertaining.
So what do we really know about this stuff in Russia?
Whilst some Moscow watchers have suggested months ago that this was brewing it doesnt look to be an overwhelming common suggestion.
Its launch point in Rostov is no surprise, it was announced that Wagner forces in the Ukraine theater were going there for R&R. The rumours were that Wagner was going to send some of these abroad where the money and fun is probably a lot more interesting. Clearly they didnt disperse at all. its also a military hub so not short of kit.
The questions around whether this is going to be succesful then are:
How many people has Wagner mustered?
Whos backing this? It is likely that some within the military/security/governemnt appartus are onboard, if not actively, certainly in terms of not standling in their way. Given the distance between the supposed launch point and Moscow, you'd think the defence might be somewhat further south than it appears (and we don't know for sure). Whilst the Kadryovite forces have left Ukraine and reportedly heading to Rostov, you'd be looking to stop this well out of the way of your capital.
Where are all the Wagner forces? It would not surprise to see some forming up elsewhere, including in the capital. If we see military units come out for Prigozhin in the coming hours, Putin's issue multiplies in scale.
Who is backing Putin? The assumption at this point is that some elements of the military hierarchy are not with him/sitting in the fence as are some of the units therein. You'd assume the National Guard is onboard, it was seen to be Putins own militia but not a peep from the boss there which is interesting. FSB? No idea. The head of the SVR has come out for Putin but he hasnt got a militia.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
As of now the authorities at the Kremlin are still trying to talk to Prigozhin. They already tried to broker something (Putin included) in the last couple of days but Mr Angry didnt seem to be interested.
The motivation behind this is easy enough. Prigozhin hads big design plans and has probably assumed he is a dead man walking anyway, so fuck it.
The only way Prigozhin wins this is the very rapid defenestration of Putin. If Putin lives Prigozhin dies. He must know that. Surely he didn't start this without knowing this. Surely he has some sort of plan.
Prigozhin needs to seize the control of the state broadcaster.
My guess is, he's already read, and re-read, THE handbook:
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian. equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of Russians too in this war, committed genocidal acts, made millions homeless and committed war crimes on a scale not seen since the Nazis in World War Two.
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
NYT live blog - President Biden delayed his departure for Camp David on Saturday to consult with advisers and spoke with European leaders about the crisis. Those on the call included President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain. “The leaders discussed the situation in Russia,” the White House said in a statement. “They also affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine.”
When all this is done, NATO will have a border with Russia stretching from the Arctic Circle to the Black Sea.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Putin knows something you don´t, which is why the regime is fleeing.
What I think we’re seeing is Lutwark’s classic coup d’etat, one that is almost bloodless at the point of flagrante delicto, because the pieces have already been played.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
They've been in Ukraine since 2014! Trump specifically threw Zelensky under the bus because he wouldn't play ball with the Biden Jr's laptop thing! It was discussed at the time!
In much more important news I can report that the film Asteroid City is absolute crap. Worst film I've seen in the cinema for years (it probably beats Ad Astra solely because it was more interesting to look at).
I have a UK friend who left Dubai to go and live with his wife in Russia, Doesnt look like a good call atm
Leaving Dubai is never a bad call.
What makes you say that? The most socially liberal city in the Gulf region
Full of ghastlies though. Is that unfair? I judge from afar.
Most of the ghastlies are British “influencers”, who now populate the place during the winter.
Yes that sort of thing. I'm talking about the westerners who hang out there. That whole tacky scene. But I've never been. Maybe I'd get a pleasant surprise.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
No Russian ground units have engaged them at all so far. Not military, not National Guard, not FSB. Smells a bit
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
What Russian forces have tipped their hand to Putin so far?
So far Wagner have travelled hundreds of miles meeting no resistance. Russian forces are either joining Wagner or letting them past unimpeded.
That is weird, to be sure, but the fighting not really beginning doesn't change that he doesn't have the resources unless people start openly switching.
Seems to me, that at least some of the troops reportedly heading to Moscow, have been dispatched by orders from Kremlin, or wherever Russian Army HQ is?
Which is NOT to say how fast pro-regime forces will travel OR what they'll do when (or if) they make it to Rome III.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
Indeed, though his latest remarks about the war being based on lies to puff up Shoigu were in a different direction. And if he were to win (he won't), he'd need to sort things out domestically before spending time in Ukraine I assume, so he might need to 'temporarily' withdraw in order to come back again properly next time.
Sorry - can you explain further why this is alarming the Romanians? Genuine enquiry - not being snide.
Moldova is a 80% majority Romanian speaking country (until 1940, it was part of Romania), but it has significant other minorities, including Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish speaking Gaugauz and Bulgarians. These minorities are concentrated in two areas, the largest of which is across the Dniestr River. This is also where much of the industry and power stations of the country were situated. As the USSR fell the local army garrison of the Soviet army which switched to the Russian army, supported a breakaway republic on this territory. No none legally recognised it but it crippled the Moldovan economy and left it still politically engaged with Russia (also prevented any attempt by Moldova to rejoin Romania). The result is that Moldova is poor and pretty unstable, with at least half of the citizens of Moldova also being citizens of Romania. Meanwhile the PMR is home to all sort of criminal activity- a major part of the illegal arms trade globally, for example. So, although the Russian garrison is now maybe 1000 soldiers, it is big enough to cause a lot of trouble. The Moldovan armed forces maight struggle to cope with anything determined launched against them. So in short Romania cares because Moldova is its sister country, it has strategic interests in supporting and promoting Moldova, and has a big headache in dealing with the crims in Tiraspol, the capital of the PMR.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
They've been in Ukraine since 2014! Trump specifically threw Zelensky under the bus because he wouldn't play ball with the Biden Jr's laptop thing! It was discussed at the time!
I swear to God above, PB has no memory.
Trump blackmailing Zelensky for critical military aid was in his worse three things. An awful traitor of a man.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
I know part of the role of political commentators is to boil things down to the simplest way possible for us numbskulls, but they could still try a little harder.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
Putin would have invaded without Trump, but Trump and his followers were "useful idiots" for Putin in the same way as Corbyn and his ilk are too.
Not in the same way but in a different way. Corbyn would say, "NATO provoked this and intervening is wrong," whereas Trump would ask, "What's in it for us?"
NYT live blog - President Biden delayed his departure for Camp David on Saturday to consult with advisers and spoke with European leaders about the crisis. Those on the call included President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain. “The leaders discussed the situation in Russia,” the White House said in a statement. “They also affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine.”
When all this is done, NATO will have a border with Russia stretching from the Arctic Circle to the Black Sea.
They already have a border north of the Arctic Circle. 🙂 Lots of Norwegian "weather stations" with their dishes pointed East.
Russian social media, thanks to my wife, says that it’s now impossible to get a plane ticket out of Moscow tonight, irrespective of the destination.
To be fair it's equally impossible to get a train ticket out of Manchester tonight, but that's due to Transpennine Express rather than the Wagner Group.
Seems to me, that at least some of the troops reportedly heading to Moscow, have been dispatched by orders from Kremlin, or wherever Russian Army HQ is?
Which is NOT to say how fast pro-regime forces will travel OR what they'll do when (or if) they make it to Rome III.
Its a bit like Nappy during the Hundreds Day, where all the troops sent to stop him deserted to join him.
Sorry - can you explain further why this is alarming the Romanians? Genuine enquiry - not being snide.
Moldova is a 80% majority Romanian speaking country (until 1940, it was part of Romania), but it has significant other minorities, including Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish speaking Gaugauz and Bulgarians. These minorities are concentrated in two areas, the largest of which is across the Dniestr River. This is also where much of the industry and power stations of the country were situated. As the USSR fell the local army garrison of the Soviet army which switched to the Russian army, supported a breakaway republic on this territory. No none legally recognised it but it crippled the Moldovan economy and left it still politically engaged with Russia (also prevented any attempt by Moldova to rejoin Romania. The result is that Moldova is poor and pretty unstable, with at least have of the citizens of Moldova also being citizens of Romania. Meanwhile the PMR is home to all sort of criminal activity- a major part of the illegal arms trade globally, for example. So, although the Russian garrison is now maybe 1000 soldiers, it is big enough to cause a lot of trouble. The Moldovan armed forces maight struggle to cope with anything determined launched against them. So in short Romania cares because Moldova is its sister country, it has strategic interests in supporting and promoting Moldova, and has a big headache in dealing with the crims in Tiraspol, the capital of the PMR.
Bottom line - significant Russian military forces in Transnistra, supported by local authorities and most (but likely less today than yesterday?) Transnistrians.
Not just adjacent to Romania, but bordering Ukraine.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
For the same reason that the Ukrainians didn't let the invading forces reach Kyiv without being intercepted first.
You don't let the opposition pick your capital as the battleground.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
It's easy to forget it was not always so big. I only learned the other day about the Tuvan People's republic.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
How easy would that be given that Wagner seems to have fully functional anti-aircraft systems in the convoy as well as plenty of manpads?
Right now? Very easy, they are moving with no mobile systems deployed, the heavier kit has to stop and sit still. They have MANPADS but you'd just bomb from medium altitude and anyway if they had any sense, theyd know the countermeasures to defeat their own gear.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
I think that's a little harsh: India, Canada and the US are all pretty large in their own ways and manage democracy.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistic outlook of events for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the Siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
I think that's a little harsh: India, Canada and the US are all pretty large in their own ways and manage democracy.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
The other problem is that Russia is too much of a Muscovite Empire, where the rest of the nation is subjugated and its wealth extracted to support Moscow.
Other Oblasts are kept too weak and too impoverished to challenge Moscow's supremacy. That's not healthy and can't work in a democracy.
A democratic Russia would be nothing like the Russia that exists.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
No Russian ground units have engaged them at all so far. Not military, not National Guard, not FSB. Smells a bit
It's rife for conspiracy or smelling a set up - but Putin already had the country on as close to war footing as he could get away with, and this isn't like the potential false flag Kremlin drone situation where he benefits despite it looking a bit weak. Armed rebellion never looks good.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
For the same reason that the Ukrainians didn't let the invading forces reach Kyiv without being intercepted first.
You don't let the opposition pick your capital as the battleground.
The distribution of Russian troops now vs Ukrainian troops then makes the analogy valueless
NYT live blog - Ukraine’s most senior military commander said he had spoken by phone with Gen. Mark A. Miley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and discussed the situation on the front line “in detail.” The commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said in a statement that the conversation touched on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which he told Milley was “proceeding according to plan.”
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Based on that post it's you who has fallen into a rabbit hole. The theory that Trump and the Republicans emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine has the slight problem that he waited until after having a summit meeting with Biden and a Democrat administration before invading. Not to mention that his initial incursion and annexation of Crimea happened while Obama was in power.
They've been in Ukraine since 2014! Trump specifically threw Zelensky under the bus because he wouldn't play ball with the Biden Jr's laptop thing! It was discussed at the time!
I swear to God above, PB has no memory.
Trump blackmailing Zelensky for critical military aid was in his worse three things. An awful traitor of a man.
Yep. Although it takes a truly massive effort of research and memory and judgement to get his atrocities down to a top 3.
Hopefully one consequence of today, whether it is stamped down quickly or not, is encouraging the West to keep up with its Ukraine support, and that public sentiment for that remains strong.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
I know part of the role of political commentators is to boil things down to the simplest way possible for us numbskulls, but they could still try a little harder.
Too much meeja in the UK is patronising Bullshit. Reporters of a previous generation like Charles Wheeler, Mark Tully ,Alistair Cooke, and others assumed the listener or viewer was not a moron. Treating your audience like grown ups is a bare minimum. Dumbing down is a literal insult to the audiences intelligence.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
I think that's a little harsh: India, Canada and the US are all pretty large in their own ways and manage democracy.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
How easy would that be given that Wagner seems to have fully functional anti-aircraft systems in the convoy as well as plenty of manpads?
Right now? Very easy, they are moving with no mobile systems deployed, the heavier kit has to stop and sit still. They have MANPADS but you'd just bomb from medium altitude and anyway if they had any sense, theyd know the countermeasures to defeat their own gear.
But with the Russian military, who knows.
It does appear that they’re totally flat-footed. A handful of helicopters trying to take out individual vehicles, rather than a concerted effort to actually take out the road they’re on. It requires something of a change in mindset, to actually bomb your own country’s infrastructure.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
For the same reason that the Ukrainians didn't let the invading forces reach Kyiv without being intercepted first.
You don't let the opposition pick your capital as the battleground.
The distribution of Russian troops now vs Ukrainian troops then makes the analogy valueless
No it doesn't. Wagner's troops have travelled about 1000km in a day. Are you suggesting that Russia's troops (or aircraft) couldn't have travelled 100-200km in the same time to take the fight outside of Moscow?
It is not a sign of strength to have fighting reach your own capital. Dictator rule 1 is don't let your capital be threatened.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
There's also a fair amount of confirmation bias: Russia is big and strong; Putin is big and strong (and not a bit gay); therefore I will find some evidence showing that this will fail.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
How easy would that be given that Wagner seems to have fully functional anti-aircraft systems in the convoy as well as plenty of manpads?
Right now? Very easy, they are moving with no mobile systems deployed, the heavier kit has to stop and sit still. They have MANPADS but you'd just bomb from medium altitude and anyway if they had any sense, theyd know the countermeasures to defeat their own gear.
But with the Russian military, who knows.
It does appear that they’re totally flat-footed. A handful of helicopters trying to take out individual vehicles, rather than a concerted effort to actually take out the road they’re on. It requires something of a change in mindset, to actually bomb your own country’s infrastructure.
It shouldn't be possible for anyone to roll over the border and conceivably ride up to the capital in an armed convoy in a day, even if taken by surprise.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
I know part of the role of political commentators is to boil things down to the simplest way possible for us numbskulls, but they could still try a little harder.
Too much meeja in the UK is patronising Bullshit. Reporters of a previous generation like Charles Wheeler, Mark Tully ,Alistair Cooke, and others assumed the listener or viewer was not a moron. Treating your audience like grown ups is a bare minimum. Dumbing down is a literal insult to the audiences intelligence.
You are assuming those doing the reporting aren't morons themselves. The inability to get basic facts correct during COVID didn't fill one full of confidence that this assumption holds true.
Sorry - can you explain further why this is alarming the Romanians? Genuine enquiry - not being snide.
Moldova is a 80% majority Romanian speaking country (until 1940, it was part of Romania), but it has significant other minorities, including Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish speaking Gaugauz and Bulgarians. These minorities are concentrated in two areas, the largest of which is across the Dniestr River. This is also where much of the industry and power stations of the country were situated. As the USSR fell the local army garrison of the Soviet army which switched to the Russian army, supported a breakaway republic on this territory. No none legally recognised it but it crippled the Moldovan economy and left it still politically engaged with Russia (also prevented any attempt by Moldova to rejoin Romania). The result is that Moldova is poor and pretty unstable, with at least half of the citizens of Moldova also being citizens of Romania. Meanwhile the PMR is home to all sort of criminal activity- a major part of the illegal arms trade globally, for example. So, although the Russian garrison is now maybe 1000 soldiers, it is big enough to cause a lot of trouble. The Moldovan armed forces maight struggle to cope with anything determined launched against them. So in short Romania cares because Moldova is its sister country, it has strategic interests in supporting and promoting Moldova, and has a big headache in dealing with the crims in Tiraspol, the capital of the PMR.
However, Transnistria (for the most part) was only Romanian during the Nazi invasion and occupation of Soviet Ukraine from 1941-44. Currently, there are bits on the "right" bank that are controlled by Transnistria (which were Romanian 1918-40), and bits on the "left" bank that are controlled by Moldova (that were Soviet 1918-1940).
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
I said it depends. You said it doesn't because Ukraine is the innocent victim. So for you Russians killing 10m Russians is preferable to Russians killing 7 Ukrainians. Crazy view. Even crazier to call anybody not sharing it a Putin apologist. Get a grip.
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
Russia is too large a country for democracy to mature in. It really needs to break up a little bit more.
I think that's a little harsh: India, Canada and the US are all pretty large in their own ways and manage democracy.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
We all know how we want this to end, but we don't know. Simple as that. So lets hold our horses rather than eyeing up each others' cognitive biases, shall we?
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Woke vs anti-woke is a wholly internal Western culture war. Putin is only taking sides to try to gain some relevance and pose as an alternative to US dominance, but it's all artificial.
So those recruiting Putin to their side as an anti-woke tribune defending the family and Judeo-Christian values ARE foremost among the useful idiots? I might quibble with useful..
No, Putin is clinging on to their coat-tails rather than pulling their strings. They are not useful idiots but simply participating in democratic politics as is their right. The idiots are those who brand them Putinists and try to delegitimise them on that basis, because that is what discredits democracy.
It must take a superhuman effort to avert your eyes from the actualité. I suppose the groundwork has to be laid for a scamper in the opposite direction on the road to Damascus.
The politicisation of support for Ukraine in the US has indeed been an unfortunate consequence of using Putin as a scapegoat for Trump winning the election.
Can I help you out of that rabbit hole you've just fallen into?
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2020. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
Biden's actions in Afghanistan played a role too. Putin saw America retreating there, and assumed that meant it had no appetite for a fight anywhere.
That was a major miscalculation by Putin.
I can't disagree with the retreat from Kabul as a defeat for Biden, but before William gets too excited, it was a retreat orchestrated in the first instance by Trump.. In my view the execution of this capitulation and the failure to row back Trump's plan was an error by Biden that quite possibly emboldened Putin.
I would dispute anyone who considers the Ukrainian situation would be any better under Trump than it is under Biden.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
There's also a fair amount of confirmation bias: Russia is big and strong; Putin is big and strong (and not a bit gay); therefore I will find some evidence showing that this will fail.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
There's also a fair amount of confirmation bias: Russia is big and strong; Putin is big and strong (and not a bit gay); therefore I will find some evidence showing that this will fail.
We saw that with the presumption of the strength of the military when they invaded Ukraine & bemusement that they ended up in a massive traffic jam & lost 100s of vechicles. Then it was revealed that lots of then were fitted with cheap Chinese knock-off tyres unsuitable for the weight of the vechicles they were fitted to. Same with the ability of their tanks to withstand various weapons, etc etc etc.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
How easy would that be given that Wagner seems to have fully functional anti-aircraft systems in the convoy as well as plenty of manpads?
Right now? Very easy, they are moving with no mobile systems deployed, the heavier kit has to stop and sit still. They have MANPADS but you'd just bomb from medium altitude and anyway if they had any sense, theyd know the countermeasures to defeat their own gear.
But with the Russian military, who knows.
It does appear that they’re totally flat-footed. A handful of helicopters trying to take out individual vehicles, rather than a concerted effort to actually take out the road they’re on. It requires something of a change in mindset, to actually bomb your own country’s infrastructure.
I dont think there woudl be much hesitation there to be honest.
The most likely reason there hasnt been a noticeable response is because nobody has told the units in between Moscow & Rostov what to do and the most likely reason for that is that they just haven't. Heaven forbid they'd have some local initiative.
You can't, however, rule out that local commanders or someone giving orders centrally are consciously sitting on the fence.
We need a market in where Putin would go if he flees and pays a govt a lot of money to give him sanctuary.
My favourites are China, Saudi, South Africa and France to shack up with Roman Polanski and Roger.
Can’t see him choosing India and now Berlusconi has gone there’s no dolce vita on the horizon. Northern Cyprus to spend time with his cash - can’t see Erdogan wanting that hassle on his plate.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Times reckons wagner have 10,000 men which ain't enough without defections.
If the Russian military is demoralised and unable or unwilling to fight those men, then Putin will lose and this and soon his life is over.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
If.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
It tells us a lot. The distance Wagner's troops have travelled is insane, they ought to have been able to be intercepted by now if Putin was in full control of his military. That they've not been is not insignificant.
Your troops are in Moscow. Your objectives are 1. Defend Moscow 2. Crush wagner, who are heading towards Moscow at as you say an insane rate. Why weaken Moscows defences by leaving it, rather than let them come to you?
In general, I think you’d want to crush a rebellion as swiftly as possible, with overwhelming force, rather than let the rebels reach the capital.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistc outlook for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
One thing one of the predecessors of @Leon got right is the existence of Normalcy Bias.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
There's also a fair amount of confirmation bias: Russia is big and strong; Putin is big and strong (and not a bit gay); therefore I will find some evidence showing that this will fail.
And against that there is very powerful narrative bias: we want the story to be, wagner slays putin in his lair.
Frank Gardener giving a very optimistic outlook of events for Putin on PM, unlike Mark Urban.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the Siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
How do you "contain" someone outside something? It sounds as though Gardner is having a problem with basic English.
And if the Wagner Group wanted to hand him over, why would they go all the way to Moscow to do it?
Comments
https://twitter.com/WarMach18898344/status/1672640025362677761/photo/1
Putin assisted and allegedly, via Deutsche Bank, bankrolled Trump in 2016 in order to destabilise the West and the US in particular. Trump duly obliged, coming within a cigarette paper of a coup on January 6th 2021. I am convinced Trump and the Republican's emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
The fact that Wagner's men have nearly made it to Moscow already is a terrible sign for Putinistas. They should never have been able to get anywhere close to Moscow and the fact they've not been stopped yet speaks volumes.
That was a major miscalculation by Putin.
Not to mention the complete lack of any public demonstrations or mobilisations of citizens to defend the regime.
Not stopping them tells us relatively little, because we expect Russian troops to be in either Moscow or Ukraine not the bits in between.
“The situation is difficult,” said Sergei Sobyanin.
“I ask you to refrain from travelling around the city as much as possible,” he said, warning that roads may also be closed.
By around 5pm local time, Prigozhin’s forces were said to be “moving across” the Lipetsk region, some 250 miles south of Moscow, the local governor said.
The mutineers are seeking to advance to the capital and overthrow Russia’s military leadership."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-coup-wagner-kremlin-yevgeny-prigozhin/
As for where Russia goes after they quit Ukraine, who knows, one must hope for the best. Eg a genuine democracy, free and fair elections, a landslide for the Russian equivalent of Sir Ed Davey. See, I'm no 'realist'. Hang that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria
Whilst some Moscow watchers have suggested months ago that this was brewing it doesnt look to be an overwhelming common suggestion.
Its launch point in Rostov is no surprise, it was announced that Wagner forces in the Ukraine theater were going there for R&R. The rumours were that Wagner was going to send some of these abroad where the money and fun is probably a lot more interesting. Clearly they didnt disperse at all. its also a military hub so not short of kit.
The questions around whether this is going to be succesful then are:
How many people has Wagner mustered?
Whos backing this? It is likely that some within the military/security/governemnt appartus are onboard, if not actively, certainly in terms of not standling in their way. Given the distance between the supposed launch point and Moscow, you'd think the defence might be somewhat further south than it appears (and we don't know for sure). Whilst the Kadryovite forces have left Ukraine and reportedly heading to Rostov, you'd be looking to stop this well out of the way of your capital.
Where are all the Wagner forces? It would not surprise to see some forming up elsewhere, including in the capital. If we see military units come out for Prigozhin in the coming hours, Putin's issue multiplies in scale.
Who is backing Putin? The assumption at this point is that some elements of the military hierarchy are not with him/sitting in the fence as are some of the units therein. You'd assume the National Guard is onboard, it was seen to be Putins own militia but not a peep from the boss there which is interesting. FSB? No idea. The head of the SVR has come out for Putin but he hasnt got a militia.
Most of all, just where is the airforce? Wagner are driving in convoy up motorways. Bomb it.
As of now the authorities at the Kremlin are still trying to talk to Prigozhin. They already tried to broker something (Putin included) in the last couple of days but Mr Angry didnt seem to be interested.
The motivation behind this is easy enough. Prigozhin hads big design plans and has probably assumed he is a dead man walking anyway, so fuck it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVOnA69eX2I
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romania–Transnistria_relations
To conflate that with "killing 7 Ukrainians" is the crazy view and anyone who could utter those words is absolutely and unequivocally a Putin apologist.
Yes, Russians killing each other is better than them killing Ukrainians. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation.
I swear to God above, PB has no memory.
Which is NOT to say how fast pro-regime forces will travel OR what they'll do when (or if) they make it to Rome III.
I always though Konigsberg would have been a good place for the Jewish national home.
A small edit but a crucial one.
Not just adjacent to Romania, but bordering Ukraine.
You don't let the opposition pick your capital as the battleground.
But with the Russian military, who knows.
The real problem,I think, is that too many Russians see the job of the government to glorify Rodina, rather than to fulfill the basic needs of making the population a little better off.
Putin wants to contain him outside Moscow until the wagner group hand over Progozhin, deliberately not engaging, no defections from the Siloviki. I'm not sure that this is right.
Other Oblasts are kept too weak and too impoverished to challenge Moscow's supremacy. That's not healthy and can't work in a democracy.
A democratic Russia would be nothing like the Russia that exists.
Too many in the media seem to find the idea of Putin being challenged so alien that obviously it is Prigozhin that will be handed over, rather than Putin that ends up riddled with bullets or fleeing.
The fact that so far Prigozhin is making all the moves and hasn't met any resistance doesn't seem to affect their thinking at all.
It is not a sign of strength to have fighting reach your own capital. Dictator rule 1 is don't let your capital be threatened.
Coups on average fail https://www.statista.com/chart/6955/most-coup-attempts-in-recent-years-have-failed/
I would dispute anyone who considers the Ukrainian situation would be any better under Trump than it is under Biden.
Sir Gay!
[Please don't ban me @rcs1000 !!]
Why show that much weakness in the cause of not starting a civil war ? He would never recover in terms of credibility, and he's not thick.
The most likely reason there hasnt been a noticeable response is because nobody has told the units in between Moscow & Rostov what to do and the most likely reason for that is that they just haven't. Heaven forbid they'd have some local initiative.
You can't, however, rule out that local commanders or someone giving orders centrally are consciously sitting on the fence.
My favourites are China, Saudi, South Africa and France to shack up with Roman Polanski and Roger.
Can’t see him choosing India and now Berlusconi has gone there’s no dolce vita on the horizon. Northern Cyprus to spend time with his cash - can’t see Erdogan wanting that hassle on his plate.
Any ideas?
And if the Wagner Group wanted to hand him over, why would they go all the way to Moscow to do it?