Breaking - based on (un)reliable news reports that Wagnerian forces are in vicinity of Tul(s)a, the Governor of Oklahoma has mobilized OK National Guard.
Breaking - based on (un)reliable news reports that Wagnerian forces are in vicinity of Tul(s)a, the Governor of Oklahoma has mobilized OK National Guard.
Just wait till the people of Moscow, Idaho, hear what’s coming their way.
Breaking - based on (un)reliable news reports that Wagnerian forces are in vicinity of Tul(s)a, the Governor of Oklahoma has mobilized OK National Guard.
Probably caused by the local opera society doing the Nibelung or some such....
Breaking - based on (un)reliable news reports that Wagnerian forces are in vicinity of Tul(s)a, the Governor of Oklahoma has mobilized OK National Guard.
Just wait till the people of Moscow, Idaho, hear what’s coming their way.
Breaking - based on (un)reliable news reports that Wagnerian forces are in vicinity of Tul(s)a, the Governor of Oklahoma has mobilized OK National Guard.
Just wait till the people of Moscow, Idaho, hear what’s coming their way.
Not to mention Moscow, outside Glasgow airport.
They’re all getting out their old VHS tapes of Red Dawn and taking notes.
Russian military, going back to Soviet times, has moved its equipment by rail, using it to position forces into forward manoeuvre areas. They don’t move by road and seem completely unprepared for an assault at speed.
It's not easy writing good military history, not by any stretch, but Antony Beevor's appeal baffles me: he gets some basic stuff wrong and his books aren't particularly well written.
He must be trading off Stalingrad, his one great work.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Russian military, going back to Soviet times, has moved its equipment by rail, using it to position forces into forward manoeuvre areas. They don’t move by road and seem completely unprepared for an assault at speed.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb question.
When the nuclear armed power has been invading peaceful European nations, committing acts of genocide and war crimes and has been threatening nuclear armageddon for the past 16 months then anything that might end that situation is unequivocally a "good" thing.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Is that twitter account somewhat reliable? I'm always a little suspect of handles on there ending with about 10 numbers.
That's true, but he's given quite of a lot of accurate info previously.
Hence the reasonable-size following.
Ah - fair enough. I can't see their 'martial law' news anywhere else so I was wondering if it was just some random dude's account shoving more random stuff out. As is often the way on twitter.
It's not easy writing good military history, not by any stretch, but Antony Beevor's appeal baffles me: he gets some basic stuff wrong and his books aren't particularly well written.
He must be trading off Stalingrad, his one great work.
Beevor's appeal is his books on battles (contrast Hastings and wars). But - in my limited reading - I think James Holland is better on battles. Beevor's prose doesn't mesh with my head.
This is another quite a useful source. Unconfirmed obviously, but he seems to get a lot of things right. Perhaps intelligence agencies deliberately release a few dribs and drobs of information every now and then if it's useful for propaganda.
Certainly a fast changing and often confusing situation and that's just the racing at Ascot this afternoon.
In an ever-changing world, the Royal meeting is a beacon of continuity and downright English-ness.
As to events in Russia, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone else does either. Prigozhin doesn't strike me as our hero to be honest. It's hard to think what a Russia run by him would look like - probably not that pro-western and for all Wagner may be instrumental in Putin's downfall, they (Wagner) hardly come with clean hands.
As others have said, a civil war in a nuclear-armed state isn't something about which we can afford to be sanguine. I don't sense us being near that point - I suspect Wagner doesn't want to run Russia - they may not want Putin and the current power structure in charge but that's different.
Assuming we're all still here, RUN FOR OSCAR might be the one to follow in the concluding Royal Ascot race which will last about as long as a Russian offensive in Ukraine.
I have a UK friend who left Dubai to go and live with his wife in Russia, Doesnt look like a good call atm
Well that was a silly idea. There’s tens of thousands of Russians who made that trip the other way in the last 16 months.
Every Russian with enough money to last a year or two, and not one of the elite or subject to sanctions, has got the hell out of there since the war started.
My wife’s best friend got out of there to Europe about three years ago - her husband sold his business and left, because Putin’s goons were threatening him. He figured that change was coming, and he needed to leave. He left his house in Moscow.
No-one with money, who’s not part of Putin’s regime, is still there.
Things may not get better under Putin's successor.
Things definitely will not get better under Putin.
If its a case of definitely stay bad, or probably be bad, then it is better to go for the devil you don't know.
The odds it gets better under a new leader is basically zero. You have to be desperately naive to think otherwise.
That's not advocating to getting rid of him.
History says otherwise.
When the former Soviet Union broke up, most of the former Soviet Union got better afterwards.
A break-up of Russia would be ideal. Moscow may stay shit, and China may annex some bits at the East, but hopefully the rest of it may start to enjoy some freedom that Moscow has long denied them just as Warsaw does.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
Certainly a fast changing and often confusing situation and that's just the racing at Ascot this afternoon.
In an ever-changing world, the Royal meeting is a beacon of continuity and downright English-ness.
As to events in Russia, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone else does either. Prigozhin doesn't strike me as our hero to be honest. It's hard to think what a Russia run by him would look like - probably not that pro-western and for all Wagner may be instrumental in Putin's downfall, they (Wagner) hardly come with clean hands.
As others have said, a civil war in a nuclear-armed state isn't something about which we can afford to be sanguine. I don't sense us being near that point - I suspect Wagner doesn't want to run Russia - they may not want Putin and the current power structure in charge but that's different.
Assuming we're all still here, RUN FOR OSCAR might be the one to follow in the concluding Royal Ascot race which will last about as long as a Russian offensive in Ukraine.
I thought for a moment that backing Khaadem (albeit modestly) in the QEII Stakes was the most interesting thing happening all day, but events, dear boy, have happily trumped me.
If this is right, and again the source doesn't seem too bad, from a different side, they've already reached Kashira. That's just 77 miles away from Moscow, and actually within the Moscow Oblast. They seem to be approaching fast from a couple of directions, and apparently not meeting with much, or any, resistance :
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
Other than Ukrainians (perhaps even more than Ukrainians) it is the Russian people that have suffered the most from Putin's regime.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
Ah good news all round then since I don't think that!
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
You both denied Russians fighting Russians was better than Russians fighting Ukrainians, and you said you want no more than Russia out of Ukraine, so yes you do.
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
Things may not get better under Putin's successor.
Things definitely will not get better under Putin.
If its a case of definitely stay bad, or probably be bad, then it is better to go for the devil you don't know.
The odds it gets better under a new leader is basically zero. You have to be desperately naive to think otherwise.
That's not advocating to getting rid of him.
History says otherwise.
When the former Soviet Union broke up, most of the former Soviet Union got better afterwards.
A break-up of Russia would be ideal. Moscow may stay shit, and China may annex some bits at the East, but hopefully the rest of it may start to enjoy some freedom that Moscow has long denied them just as Warsaw does.
It literally doesn't though, as I said.
I think you're desperately naive if much will change at all if Putin goes if I am honest. Let's hope you're right and I am wrong.
I'm pretty sure things wouldn't improve in Russia. But they'd improve in Ukraine.
Indeed. While we're all amateur Kremlinologists today, surely a) Prigozhin is self interested enough to know he can't win in Ukraine but he can fill his boots by ending the war and returning to business-as-usual kleptocracy as Russia's new head of state and, b) the Russian military, who also know the war is lost, are allowing him a clear run at Moscow for the same reason - it's their 'out' from this war too.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Certainly a fast changing and often confusing situation and that's just the racing at Ascot this afternoon.
In an ever-changing world, the Royal meeting is a beacon of continuity and downright English-ness.
As to events in Russia, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone else does either. Prigozhin doesn't strike me as our hero to be honest. It's hard to think what a Russia run by him would look like - probably not that pro-western and for all Wagner may be instrumental in Putin's downfall, they (Wagner) hardly come with clean hands.
As others have said, a civil war in a nuclear-armed state isn't something about which we can afford to be sanguine. I don't sense us being near that point - I suspect Wagner doesn't want to run Russia - they may not want Putin and the current power structure in charge but that's different.
Assuming we're all still here, RUN FOR OSCAR might be the one to follow in the concluding Royal Ascot race which will last about as long as a Russian offensive in Ukraine.
I thought for a moment that backing Khaadem (albeit modestly) in the QEII Stakes was the most interesting thing happening all day, but events, dear boy, have happily trumped me.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
If this is right, and again the source doesn't seem too bad, from a different side, they've already reached Kashira. That's just 77 miles away from Moscow, and actually within the Moscow Oblast. They seem to be approaching fast from a couple of directions, and apparently not meeting with much, or any, resistance :
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
No, I was genuinely being serious on betting. If the liquidity was big enough and I could open an account in time I'd put down a grand, on the grounds that stupid odds like that don't happen often. I want Prigozhin to cut off Putin's balls and eat them in front of him before throwing him into the lava, but betting is betting and 300/1 is badly mispriced. But the liquidity is only 10K and I don't do online.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Why do we trust him anymore than Putin? Bizarre.
Trust has nothing to do with it, but it should be obvious that Prigozhin has a better handle on the reality of the situation at the moment than Putin.
Did I just hear on BBC News Laura K really ask Sunak if this was a good or bad thing that was happening?
We really don't know. Replacing Putin with another psychopath, and one who can organise, is not always good.
Under no scenario can having a nuclear armed power being destabilised by an attempted military coup undertaken by a murderous mercenary force considered "good" thing.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
Yes it can. A credible outcome is Wagner wins, and has no further interest in Ukraine. This looks to me like excellent news (and it does to everyone I know of with actual skin in the game). Lighten up.
I'm not so sure that's likely. According to the BBC, Prigozhin has criticized Putin for not being prepared to use tactical nukes in Ukraine and regards the Ukrainians as "genetically Russian". One of his main beefs seems to be that Putin hasn't pursued the war vigorously enough.
That's not really an accurate characterisation of the evolution of Prigozhin's position and especially what he has said in the past week about the war being based on lies.
Why do we trust him anymore than Putin? Bizarre.
Trust has nothing to do with it, but it should be obvious that Prigozhin has a better handle on the reality of the situation at the moment than Putin.
People used to say that about Putin. I don't believe a word any of them say.
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
Putin is out to 300 for the 2024 presidential elec on smarkets.
That is ridiculous. Prigozhin doesn't have enough troops and those Russian forces that have tipped their hand have gone to Putin. How fast can one open a smarkets account? Is Shadsy on drugs?
It doesn’t matter if Putin wins this one - he’s been exposed as being weak. There’s likely to be another, better organised & larger putsch from within the army in the next year after this even if Putin stays in post.
There was always a Wizard of Oz element to Putin's power, which is why those in the West who portrayed him as having the ability to swing elections at will have always been amongst the foremost useful idiots. It was they who did the most to discredit democracy and undermine confidence in our own systems.
Next you’ll be telling us sharing Putin’s anti-woke obsession is another characteristic of the foremost useful idiots.
Putin faces his biggest ever crisis – politicalbetting.com
Comments
Tammy Beaumont has done really well.
Oh, and some stuff is happening in Russia.
https://twitter.com/WarMach18898344
https://liveuamap.com
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672614826768494594
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
https://twitter.com/bbctms/status/1672614596027514882
No.
This assault on Moscow seems to be much better planned and more competently executed than the original assault on Kyiv.
For one, there seems to be no confusion among the Wagner troops about what the mission is.
Remarkable
May this nightmare end soon
Russian military, going back to Soviet times, has moved its equipment by rail, using it to position forces into forward manoeuvre areas. They don’t move by road and seem completely unprepared for an assault at speed.
He must be trading off Stalingrad, his one great work.
Again, about 180-190km from Moscow, and slightly north of Tula.
It all shades of shit whatever the outcome.
You get 5 minute interview with the PM and you waste every bodies time by asking such a dumb binary question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kwb_PqKs60
ETA it is all Jacob Rees-Mogg's dad's fault, apparently.
Hence the reasonable-size following.
If you think that Putin's regime remaining stable and in power unchallenged is the best thing for the Russian people, then it is you with the problem.
Other than Ukraine, it is Russians themselves that stand the most to gain from fighting to oust Putin.
https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1672618333546467330
I think people are desperately naive if they think anything is going to change in Russia if Putin goes.
And if, I highly doubt anything comes of this.
Just need Roger to back it as @Taz said
Certainly a fast changing and often confusing situation and that's just the racing at Ascot this afternoon.
In an ever-changing world, the Royal meeting is a beacon of continuity and downright English-ness.
As to events in Russia, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone else does either. Prigozhin doesn't strike me as our hero to be honest. It's hard to think what a Russia run by him would look like - probably not that pro-western and for all Wagner may be instrumental in Putin's downfall, they (Wagner) hardly come with clean hands.
As others have said, a civil war in a nuclear-armed state isn't something about which we can afford to be sanguine. I don't sense us being near that point - I suspect Wagner doesn't want to run Russia - they may not want Putin and the current power structure in charge but that's different.
Assuming we're all still here, RUN FOR OSCAR might be the one to follow in the concluding Royal Ascot race which will last about as long as a Russian offensive in Ukraine.
Every Russian with enough money to last a year or two, and not one of the elite or subject to sanctions, has got the hell out of there since the war started.
My wife’s best friend got out of there to Europe about three years ago - her husband sold his business and left, because Putin’s goons were threatening him. He figured that change was coming, and he needed to leave. He left his house in Moscow.
No-one with money, who’s not part of Putin’s regime, is still there.
Things may not get better under Putin's successor.
Things definitely will not get better under Putin.
If its a case of definitely stay bad, or probably be bad, then it is better to go for the devil you don't know.
That's not advocating to getting rid of him.
When the former Soviet Union broke up, most of the former Soviet Union got better afterwards.
A break-up of Russia would be ideal. Moscow may stay shit, and China may annex some bits at the East, but hopefully the rest of it may start to enjoy some freedom that Moscow has long denied them just as Warsaw does.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1672535538757165056
Ross Kemp had planned to film TV show on Titanic sub
https://twitter.com/MrLiamArnold/status/1672536215713710080
“Get out of my sub!” - Peggy Mitchell
(best this one dies with PT, I think)
https://twitter.com/ArnoudvDoorn/status/1672624077742145537
What's your next excuse for your apologia? That you think there'd be a peaceful transfer of power at the Russian elections?
Again, I would be happy to see the back of Putin right now but I think to say this will necessarily change anything is a bit naive.
I think you're desperately naive if much will change at all if Putin goes if I am honest. Let's hope you're right and I am wrong.
https://smarkets.com/event/42623628/politics/europe/2025/01/01/00-00/russia/2024/04/07/12-00/2024-russian-presidential-election
It does seem awfully quick to get there, one gets the impression that these are not the same people who started from Rostov-on-Don this morning.
https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/1672615598340161537
Enjoyed BBC News being very clear that the M4 the Wagner Group are travelling on is NOT the M4 motorway running from London to south Wales
That's not too far.
So far Wagner have travelled hundreds of miles meeting no resistance. Russian forces are either joining Wagner or letting them past unimpeded.
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd09366-25db-4057-a41d-0ea04b659d97