Bad inflation figures and that CPI is a real concern . The BOE and no 10 have completely lost control of this . The pressure for a 0.5 rate rise is growing .
I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.
Really grim
A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
Expect the strikes to continue too.
BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.
(I am not in the BMA so not voting)
Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.
Guess, this is the same everywhere?
Junior doctors got 2% last year, Consultants 4.75%. No offer has been made for this year yet at all, hence the strikes.
Provisional date for the BMA consultant strike is 20-21 July, though I am on Leave that week anyway.
A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.
“The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”
This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.
Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.
Really grim
A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
Expect the strikes to continue too.
BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.
(I am not in the BMA so not voting)
Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.
The backdrop behind this vile individual is no great surprise. A BBC investigation has uncovered an international network of people paying Indonesians to torture & kill baby monkeys on film
“The Torture King", American Mike McCartney, was reportedly a key distributor of the videos in the US.
Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.
The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.
I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.
Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.
It takes a while for mortgage prices to hit spending. In the meantime there is a perverse logic to buy now and beat the price rise.
Wow. Next administration looks of supremely high quality.
"One party source said: “It’s ironic they talk so much about abolishing the Lords because we’re going to need to appoint a dozen peers on day one to do big junior ministerial jobs that the MPs shadowing them aren’t up to doing.”
A shadow cabinet minister added: “Over the past two elections there have perhaps been ten Labour MPs who meet the standards you would expect of ministerial office. There are maybe two or three in the 2019 intake. Keir will need to make up that shortfall of experience and quality somehow.”
Bad inflation figures and that CPI is a real concern . The BOE and no 10 have completely lost control of this . The pressure for a 0.5 rate rise is growing .
Rishi Sunak, when he tried to piggy back the expected fall in inflation over the year, by proclaiming he would halve the rate of inflation may very well have made a tactical error.
Inflation is incredibly stick and shows no sign of falling. Core inflation is increasing.
This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.
William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
Incorrect.
Literal ethnic cleansing!
Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.
And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
William the Utter Bastard
A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'
Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.
The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.
And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.
I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
When have I criticised the aristocracy themselves? I'm criticising the slavish and irrational deference you so helpfully display yet again to those who are 'aristocrats' simply because they are descended from the right sort of boat people and foreign criminals, in contrast to the wrong sort of boat people which your party is always attacking. .
And when have I said that about Wallace?
I am just about to drink a glass of water. Yes, water. Is that going to trigger you yet again?
Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.
The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.
I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.
Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.
This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
See for a really obvious example - petrol station fuel prices.
Remember Asda used to lead the price cuts now it's owned by EG who have always been expensive.
Wow. Next administration looks of supremely high quality.
"One party source said: “It’s ironic they talk so much about abolishing the Lords because we’re going to need to appoint a dozen peers on day one to do big junior ministerial jobs that the MPs shadowing them aren’t up to doing.”
A shadow cabinet minister added: “Over the past two elections there have perhaps been ten Labour MPs who meet the standards you would expect of ministerial office. There are maybe two or three in the 2019 intake. Keir will need to make up that shortfall of experience and quality somehow.”
Those inflation stats look weird. Most of the upward pressure is of less essential stuff, while food's down.
Why is inflation proving stickier here than elsewhere?
Lack of competition, companies feel comfortable keeping prices high because they know people have got no choice and business regulations are so onerous there's no risk of new entrants coming along and stealing their lunch.
Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.
The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.
I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.
Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.
This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
Lots of French and Italians too from the languages I heard. And those bloody campervans on the A9. I blame Nicola for that one, started a trend so she did.
Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.
The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.
I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.
Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.
This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
Lots of French and Italians too from the languages I heard. And those bloody campervans on the A9. I blame Nicola for that one, started a trend so she did.
I take the joke - but interestingly it was the local trade association that started up the NC500 thing. Rather too successfully.
Just listening to R4 about the cricket. I find it difficult to believe that anyone cares. What a boring game.
And now they are inventing new terms ("bazball" ffs, like teens using edgy slang in the vain attempt to appear cool) to try and make it even slightly more less boring.
But I know I'm pushing at an open door here on PB so I won't go on about it.
A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.
“The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”
This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.
Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
So having just quoted you actual industry data, you think that your personal experience is more correct / valid? It is of course correct that even in the middle of this inflation bomb the supermarkets are competing and trying to out-position on price. But the odd price cut is not prices falling - they are making the money back on the rest of the basket which is rising.
So in any given basket of items, a couple with the prices dropping and the rest with the prices rising means the overall cost to buy it is rising. A lot. If you only buy the two items that are mega price competitive and dropped, good for you. Doesn't mean you have any right to be optimistic about the items you are not buying though.
BBC: As per the Office for National Statistics, here's some more detail on that headline inflation figure.
- Rising prices for air travel, recreational and cultural goods and services, and second-hand cars resulted in the largest upward contributions - Falling prices for motor fuel led to the largest downward contribution - Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in May 2023 but by less than in May 2022
So the four largest contributors to the inflation stats, are all discretionary spending. Meanwhile food price inflation is lower, and fuel prices are actually falling.
Not great figures overall, but could be a lot worse. The worry now is that the inflation is showing itself to be sticky, which means interest rates up probably 50bps, and feeding into pay rises.
Politically, it is looking less and less likely that Sunak will achieve his target of halving inflation this year. And there will be another high triple lock increase to approve while working families struggle.
Starmer probably needs to spend less time campaigning and more time hiring economic advisors to help him work out how to fix our economic mess once he's in power.
BBC: As per the Office for National Statistics, here's some more detail on that headline inflation figure.
- Rising prices for air travel, recreational and cultural goods and services, and second-hand cars resulted in the largest upward contributions - Falling prices for motor fuel led to the largest downward contribution - Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in May 2023 but by less than in May 2022
So the four largest contributors to the inflation stats, are all discretionary spending. Meanwhile food price inflation is lower, and fuel prices are actually falling.
Not great figures overall, but could be a lot worse. The worry now is that the inflation is showing itself to be sticky, which means interest rates up probably 50bps, and feeding into pay rises.
Food inflation is past its peak but it is still way higher than the CPI rate. There is really not much of a silver lining on these figures this morning.
BBC: As per the Office for National Statistics, here's some more detail on that headline inflation figure.
- Rising prices for air travel, recreational and cultural goods and services, and second-hand cars resulted in the largest upward contributions - Falling prices for motor fuel led to the largest downward contribution - Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in May 2023 but by less than in May 2022
So the four largest contributors to the inflation stats, are all discretionary spending. Meanwhile food price inflation is lower, and fuel prices are actually falling.
Not great figures overall, but could be a lot worse. The worry now is that the inflation is showing itself to be sticky, which means interest rates up probably 50bps, and feeding into pay rises.
Food price inflation is about 15-20% and more in the real world of the economy shopping basket. Only so far one can go in cutting out ingredients in some pretty plain meals cooked up from the economy own brand ranges.
Sunak thought he was being clever making halving inflation one of his five priorities, even though it’s not something the government can control. In doing it, though, he took full ownership of the number and the cost of living. He’s not very good at politics.
Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
Despite being an economist by training I don’t really understand inflation right now. To try to understand more, can I test some ideas that seem logical to me. Please (anyone) do challenge these if there is good evidence or theory against them: - Inflation in basics like food and fuel is fairly sticky - as prices rise people will often (have to) borrow to fund basics rather than reduce consumption. - Therefore putting up interest rates doesn’t have much effect on this sort of inflation, at least in the short term (hence today’s news not being that surprising). - The biggest impact of the BoE’s current course of rises is to bake in (with a delay of 6-18 months or so) a bunch of defaults on mortgages and business debt - At that point the economy is likely to crash, and we will be left with (a) permanently proportionately higher prices on basics like food and fuel and (b) permanently less money to afford these basics.
Seems like some poor choices are being made - but I can see they might be the least bad choices. Are there any alternatives?
Politically, it is looking less and less likely that Sunak will achieve his target of halving inflation this year. And there will be another high triple lock increase to approve while working families struggle.
Starmer probably needs to spend less time campaigning and more time hiring economic advisors to help him work out how to fix our economic mess once he's in power.
This serves Sunak right for trying to claim, what he expected would be an easy win, as his own endeavour when it is pretty much the remit of the inept BOE
Sunak thought he was being clever making halving inflation one of his five priorities, even though it’s not something the government can control. In doing it, though, he took full ownership of the number and the cost of living. He’s not very good at politics.
He’s been hopeless since day one with Eat Out to Spread Covid About. He is completely out of his depth.
Those inflation stats look weird. Most of the upward pressure is of less essential stuff, while food's down.
Why is inflation proving stickier here than elsewhere?
Food is not down Morris, it is rising at nearly twice the overall rate of inflation. The fact that this is a modest improvement over the last 3 months does not make it good. Food seems to me the one that is really hurting and going to hurt the poorer members of our society.
Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
Despite being an economist by training I don’t really understand inflation right now. To try to understand more, can I test some ideas that seem logical to me. Please (anyone) do challenge these if there is good evidence or theory against them: - Inflation in basics like food and fuel is fairly sticky - as prices rise people will often (have to) borrow to fund basics rather than reduce consumption. - Therefore putting up interest rates doesn’t have much effect on this sort of inflation, at least in the short term (hence today’s news not being that surprising). - The biggest impact of the BoE’s current course of rises is to bake in (with a delay of 6-18 months or so) a bunch of defaults on mortgages and business debt - At that point the economy is likely to crash, and we will be left with (a) permanently proportionately higher prices on basics like food and fuel and (b) permanently less money to afford these basics.
Seems like some poor choices are being made - but I can see they might be the least bad choices. Are there any alternatives?
Profit driven inflation seems to be increasingly popular as an explanation, and not just on the left.
Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations
Beginning to think these figures are meaningless. Everyone's inflation rate is different. It depends what you buy... or don't buy. And above whose expectations.....
Well I can only assume you are an extremely wealthy individual with no mortgage, tone deaf, or trolling?
Jeez. Seriously? I do my weekly shop and it's awful. And many of my closest relatives are in despair over their mortgage situation.*
And you think this is 'meaningless'?
* I don't have a mortgage because I don't *own a house. I rent.
On mortgages the problem is too many people over leveraged themselves.
Although Labour have a pretty uninspired front bench Reeves and McFadden do give the impression of being pretty competent even if they went to dip into pension pots to "boost Britain", I expect they would be measured.
The next election will come down to the economy, it won't be woke, it won't be the circus of the vote on Monday, it will be the economy and the fact our living standards have stagnated.
Inflation not coming down and pay rises being mediocre won't improve that.
Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
See for a really obvious example - petrol station fuel prices.
Remember Asda used to lead the price cuts now it's owned by EG who have always been expensive.
Good morning
Talking of Asda their diesel dropped below petrol last week at £1.36 to £1.37 for petrol
With his stupid pledges he’s written the next Labour campaign for them, a man so utterly out of his depth he makes Johnson look vaguely competent.
What an absolute joke.
What an absurd statement. Rishi Sunak is not a terrible PM, and he does not make Boris look vaguely competent.
Hope you going Taz?
I stand by what I said. Weak Rishi is failing by every measure he asked us to judge him on. He is completely useless. Johnson was much better at politics.
Although Labour have a pretty uninspired front bench Reeves and McFadden do give the impression of being pretty competent even if they went to dip into pension pots to "boost Britain", I expect they would be measured.
The next election will come down to the economy, it won't be woke, it won't be the circus of the vote on Monday, it will be the economy and the fact our living standards have stagnated.
Inflation not coming down and pay rises being mediocre won't improve that.
Spot on.
Keir has played the long game into Downing Street. His team thought the economy would become the defining issue once again and they have been walking that line from day one. They’ve been lucky for all of the ducks to align but they’ve also played the game very well indeed.
BBC: As per the Office for National Statistics, here's some more detail on that headline inflation figure.
- Rising prices for air travel, recreational and cultural goods and services, and second-hand cars resulted in the largest upward contributions - Falling prices for motor fuel led to the largest downward contribution - Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in May 2023 but by less than in May 2022
So the four largest contributors to the inflation stats, are all discretionary spending. Meanwhile food price inflation is lower, and fuel prices are actually falling.
Not great figures overall, but could be a lot worse. The worry now is that the inflation is showing itself to be sticky, which means interest rates up probably 50bps, and feeding into pay rises.
The backdrop behind this vile individual is no great surprise. A BBC investigation has uncovered an international network of people paying Indonesians to torture & kill baby monkeys on film
“The Torture King", American Mike McCartney, was reportedly a key distributor of the videos in the US.
A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.
“The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”
This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.
Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
So having just quoted you actual industry data, you think that your personal experience is more correct / valid? It is of course correct that even in the middle of this inflation bomb the supermarkets are competing and trying to out-position on price. But the odd price cut is not prices falling - they are making the money back on the rest of the basket which is rising.
So in any given basket of items, a couple with the prices dropping and the rest with the prices rising means the overall cost to buy it is rising. A lot. If you only buy the two items that are mega price competitive and dropped, good for you. Doesn't mean you have any right to be optimistic about the items you are not buying though.
I assume part of the food inflation is supermarkets rebuilding margins - they have historically been miles below the US, for example.
Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations
Beginning to think these figures are meaningless. Everyone's inflation rate is different. It depends what you buy... or don't buy. And above whose expectations.....
Unless you're arguing that official stats are useless and shouldn't be published, they're the best estimate available of the overall position. If you're talking about individual perception, there's a pretty broad consensus - regardless of political persuasion - that prices are going up rapidly. You can argue that it's not the Tories' fault, but arguing that it's all illusory is Bourbon-scale insouciance.
A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.
“The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”
This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.
Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
So having just quoted you actual industry data, you think that your personal experience is more correct / valid?
It is to my personal rate of inflation, of course it is to me. So no need to be so condescending (as if you wouldn't pass that opportunity up) and, yes, we are all aware of the difference between deflation and inflation.
I have said food inflation is coming down, it is.
I have not said it is deflation which you seem to think and yes I am optimistic that food inflation has peaked for a variety of reasons.
You are not the only one, as I have said before, whose work involved the food and beverage industry and, quite frankly, the fact you see food inflation as a "Tory Tax" hardly makes you the most rational of observers given food inflation is prevalent across the whole of Europe.
Viewcode the guy is not the full shilling , be like talking to a brick. Not even a moronic half witted neanderthal could believe such obvious bullshit.
A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.
“The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”
This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.
Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
So having just quoted you actual industry data, you think that your personal experience is more correct / valid? It is of course correct that even in the middle of this inflation bomb the supermarkets are competing and trying to out-position on price. But the odd price cut is not prices falling - they are making the money back on the rest of the basket which is rising.
So in any given basket of items, a couple with the prices dropping and the rest with the prices rising means the overall cost to buy it is rising. A lot. If you only buy the two items that are mega price competitive and dropped, good for you. Doesn't mean you have any right to be optimistic about the items you are not buying though.
I assume part of the food inflation is supermarkets rebuilding margins - they have historically been miles below the US, for example.
But perhaps you have a better view?
Look at Tesco's number this year and last year. They are struggling to maintain margins.
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Provisional date for the BMA consultant strike is 20-21 July, though I am on Leave that week anyway.
They are pay cuts.
Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.
As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
"One party source said: “It’s ironic they talk so much about abolishing the Lords because we’re going to need to appoint a dozen peers on day one to do big junior ministerial jobs that the MPs shadowing them aren’t up to doing.”
A shadow cabinet minister added: “Over the past two elections there have perhaps been ten Labour MPs who meet the standards you would expect of ministerial office. There are maybe two or three in the 2019 intake. Keir will need to make up that shortfall of experience and quality somehow.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-house-of-lords-new-peers-plan-2023-klqzkh637?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Best of Times 2023 June 21&utm_term=audience_BEST_OF_TIMES
Inflation is incredibly stick and shows no sign of falling. Core inflation is increasing.
What an utter shambles.
And when have I said that about Wallace?
I am just about to drink a glass of water. Yes, water. Is that going to trigger you yet again?
Remember Asda used to lead the price cuts now it's owned by EG who have always been expensive.
Those inflation stats look weird. Most of the upward pressure is of less essential stuff, while food's down.
Why is inflation proving stickier here than elsewhere?
The Government and Bank Of England have really lost control of this situation!
And now they are inventing new terms ("bazball" ffs, like teens using edgy slang in the vain attempt to appear cool) to try and make it even slightly more less boring.
But I know I'm pushing at an open door here on PB so I won't go on about it.
Shambolic.
So in any given basket of items, a couple with the prices dropping and the rest with the prices rising means the overall cost to buy it is rising. A lot. If you only buy the two items that are mega price competitive and dropped, good for you. Doesn't mean you have any right to be optimistic about the items you are not buying though.
Not great figures overall, but could be a lot worse. The worry now is that the inflation is showing itself to be sticky, which means interest rates up probably 50bps, and feeding into pay rises.
Starmer probably needs to spend less time campaigning and more time hiring economic advisors to help him work out how to fix our economic mess once he's in power.
With his stupid pledges he’s written the next Labour campaign for them, a man so utterly out of his depth he makes Johnson look vaguely competent.
What an absolute joke.
https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/cost-of-cooking-a-family-meal-soars-by-up-to-27-as-price-of-some-ingredients-doubles-aA3K74w0eh7b
- Inflation in basics like food and fuel is fairly sticky - as prices rise people will often (have to) borrow to fund basics rather than reduce consumption.
- Therefore putting up interest rates doesn’t have much effect on this sort of inflation, at least in the short term (hence today’s news not being that surprising).
- The biggest impact of the BoE’s current course of rises is to bake in (with a delay of 6-18 months or so) a bunch of defaults on mortgages and business debt
- At that point the economy is likely to crash, and we will be left with (a) permanently proportionately higher prices on basics like food and fuel and (b) permanently less money to afford these basics.
Seems like some poor choices are being made - but I can see they might be the least bad choices. Are there any alternatives?
The next election will come down to the economy, it won't be woke, it won't be the circus of the vote on Monday, it will be the economy and the fact our living standards have stagnated.
Inflation not coming down and pay rises being mediocre won't improve that.
Talking of Asda their diesel dropped below petrol last week at £1.36 to £1.37 for petrol
I stand by what I said. Weak Rishi is failing by every measure he asked us to judge him on. He is completely useless. Johnson was much better at politics.
US and UK wage prices, world food prices, European energy prices...just add Brexit
Not that it has anything much to do with him anyway.
Keir has played the long game into Downing Street. His team thought the economy would become the defining issue once again and they have been walking that line from day one. They’ve been lucky for all of the ducks to align but they’ve also played the game very well indeed.
But perhaps you have a better view?
I have said food inflation is coming down, it is.
I have not said it is deflation which you seem to think and yes I am optimistic that food inflation has peaked for a variety of reasons.
You are not the only one, as I have said before, whose work involved the food and beverage industry and, quite frankly, the fact you see food inflation as a "Tory Tax" hardly makes you the most rational of observers given food inflation is prevalent across the whole of Europe.
Viewcode the guy is not the full shilling , be like talking to a brick. Not even a moronic half witted neanderthal could believe such obvious bullshit.