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A LAB majority edges up in the election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,032
edited June 2023 in General
imageA LAB majority edges up in the election betting – politicalbetting.com

Above is the latest betting chart from the Smarkets exchange on the general election outcome. As can be seen a LAB majority is edging back up again and stands at nearly a 60% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    First like Labour!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited June 2023
    Second like England in this match.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.
    Just a holding pattern until Anderson and Broad rip through the batting with the new ball.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    edited June 2023
    Why do England not employ me as a commentator?

    Edit - however, Cummins will look to thrash the bowling. Not lots of runs to play with.

    Edit to edit - Khawaja gutted there, really dragging himself off. Understandable, but I think he's being hard on himself.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Ben Stokes - yes
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.
    I think that was reverse psychology
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    It was the New Thread that did it.

    Quick, change the thread again.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 670
    That's the wicket that matters.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.

    Well done that man!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    GOT HIM!!!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,468
    ydoethur said:

    Why do England not employ me as a commentator?

    Edit - however, Cummins will look to thrash the bowling. Not lots of runs to play with.

    I'd imagine mainly because they don't employ commentators.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.
    You legend.

    Ahem - now let's see Cummings and the tail whack a bunch of sixes...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why do England not employ me as a commentator?

    Edit - however, Cummins will look to thrash the bowling. Not lots of runs to play with.

    I'd imagine mainly because they don't employ commentators.
    Well that's a stupid gap in their Bazball strategy.

    There was a fabulous example of this armchair criticism having a glorious effect on form from Gloucestershire years ago:

    https://thejessoptavernview.blogspot.com/2012/07/hamish-bandwagon-is-heading-to-cardiff.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Not reallys surprised to see Lab chances edge up, but it's impressive how little chance people think the Tories have of holding on nonetheless - the scale of the achievement even getting to NOM is easily overlooked.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,468
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why do England not employ me as a commentator?

    Edit - however, Cummins will look to thrash the bowling. Not lots of runs to play with.

    I'd imagine mainly because they don't employ commentators.
    Well that's a stupid gap in their Bazball strategy.

    There was a fabulous example of this armchair criticism having a glorious effect on form from Gloucestershire years ago:

    https://thejessoptavernview.blogspot.com/2012/07/hamish-bandwagon-is-heading-to-cardiff.html
    But as they don't actually employ commentators... you can see that you may be arguing a hopeless case.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    MikeL said:

    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?

    Definitely England’s to lose from here.

    But we’ve all seen that happen before!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    MikeL said:

    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?

    No matter how much it is unusual (and bearing in mind the rain scuppered much of the day), we cannot help every time to look at the runs needed and overs remaining and assuming it should be easier than it is.

    They might yet still do it, but we always underestimate 4th innings impacts.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,396
    Australia's required run rate now up to 3 an over.

    Shame Cummins is going to hit 4s and over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Khawaja single-handedly getting a third of the Australian runs, over the two innings.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    MikeL said:

    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?

    The pitch is flat.

    They bat very deep.

    England's bowling attack is rather one-paced and they don't have a proper spinner.

    The ground is wet so the ball won't swing.

    Batsmen play with a more attacking mindset than before.

    So, it was not unreasonable to think Aus would chase this.

    They still can. Cummins can bat.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,396
    MikeL said:

    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?

    Successful run chases are a misleading tally as if you required a smaller amount and get it the match is instantly over.

    Many smaller 4th Innings always could have got more.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Second like England in this match.

    They're not even trying now. Root bowling pies and Stokes bowling wide.
    Meh, its cricket. Not like a really good sport like football. 7-0!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,396
    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja single-handedly getting a third of the Australian runs, over the two innings.

    Batted on all 5 days.

    I wonder how frequent that is?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,512
    edited June 2023
    update on trip: Torrential rain storm yesterday. Road flooded. Couldn't see. Lost companion. We found we were both sheltering only 10 metres apart. Dried out over the day and made it to il d'Aix by ferry. Spa in hotel appreciated. Went out for dinner and met German couple who invited us back to their house for drinks, while he played rock stuff on his guitar and she showed us her loom!!! Got back to hotel at 1 am. Today miserable. Very wet but then the sun came out so all is good. Saw a crayfish on our cycle path. Can't explain that. It was very angry. Both yesterday and todays location beautiful. No idea of distance yesterday as water wiped out all electrics. Today was just over 60 km. Rural France is beautiful and unihabited.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,396
    3 reviews remaining, may as well review it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja single-handedly getting a third of the Australian runs, over the two innings.

    Batted on all 5 days.

    I wonder how frequent that is?
    Not very.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/records/batting-on-each-day-of-a-five-day-match-283161
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Well, that wasn't easy but Root will be disappointed he didn't hold on.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MikeL said:

    I've been surprised by the odds all day.

    History shows significant totals are very rarely chased successfully in Test cricket.

    This would be the 2nd highest successful run chase in any Test at Edgbaston.

    Yet Australia favourites for most of the innings?

    Successful run chases are a misleading tally as if you required a smaller amount and get it the match is instantly over.

    Many smaller 4th Innings always could have got more.
    I think there have only been about 10 successful 4th innings run chases of any size at Edgbaston - in well over 100 years of Test cricket.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    My God what a game
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,738
    edited June 2023
    The decline in the Scots Nats, if sustained, will also significantly reduce the chance of a hung Parliament, with all the weakness and instability that entails. Of course, getting rid of the Northern Irish would reduce it much further, as well as saving the English taxpayer a fortune, but sadly there is no hope of that at the moment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    They are responding in kind. And good for them. Bazball is the only possible future for Test cricket. Draws and dull games are way too common
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    They need to get some more runs before the new ball turns up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Sandpit said:

    They need to get some more runs before the new ball turns up.

    I would have thought a hard new ball might actually make scoring easier.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    edited June 2023
    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    Rain on radar for 6.45 pm according to TMS

    If so draw price very attractive
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,019
    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    Rain on radar for 6.45 pm according to TMS

    If so draw price very attractive
    Ben Stokes fans please explain.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Mike said: "The Tories will no doubt do their best portray Starmer in as negative a manner as possible and maybe they could get some traction.

    How could the Tories make Starmer appear more negative than their party? Seriously! :D

    Truss. May. Johnson. Partygate. Cummings. Barnard Castle. And now the utterly weak Sunak. Add in a mortgage crisis and inflation and the Tories will be toast for a generation - and that is before people like me use Brexit against them too.

    Starmer would need to appear on stage in a Prime Ministerial debate with his trousers falling down around his ankles whilst addressing the back of the studio instead of the audience with a "kick me" sign stuck to his back.

    If the Tories can make Starmer do that, they might have a chance...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    edited June 2023
    Worth noting that apparently if England do win this it will be a record for bowling teams out in successive matches - they don't just whack the ball about, they close matches.

    Root deserves a wicket - his batting average is higher than his bowling average, so he's practically an allrounder.
    Fishing said:

    The decline in the Scots Nats, if sustained, will also significantly reduce the chance of a hung Parliament, with all the weakness and instability that entails. Of course, getting rid of the Northern Irish would reduce it much further, as well as saving the English taxpayer a fortune, but sadly there is no hope of that at the moment.

    It's one of those things that a lot of people curiously regard as inevitable ('tis an island you know, so it's only right it be unified), but also seems far off given the glacified politics at play there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    TimS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    Rain on radar for 6.45 pm according to TMS

    If so draw price very attractive
    Ben Stokes fans please explain.
    Deists please explain
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Root drops catch

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    TimS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    Rain on radar for 6.45 pm according to TMS

    If so draw price very attractive
    Ben Stokes fans please explain.
    He cannot control the weather.

    Yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    edited June 2023
    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
    Corbyns i think about to show Root how to catch a stormer
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    The decline in the Scots Nats, if sustained, will also significantly reduce the chance of a hung Parliament, with all the weakness and instability that entails. Of course, getting rid of the Northern Irish would reduce it much further, as well as saving the English taxpayer a fortune, but sadly there is no hope of that at the moment.

    It's one of those things that a lot of people curiously regard as inevitable ('tis an island you know, so it's only right it be unified), but also seems far off given the glacified politics at play there.
    I fully expect Westminster to betray the DUP and Stormont at some point. Labour has never been keen on keeping NI, it was always the Tories to whom Unionism looked for support. Now the Tories are barking mad thanks to Brexit Purity and throwing NI to their more rabid supporters would probably be popular.

    They could say "Let's get rid of N.I. and save £millions per week and spend it on mortgage interest relief"

    It would look great on the side of a bus...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    Rooot
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    He hangs on at last! And it's Carey!

    If we just get Cummins now...he's the one man who can still do it for Aus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    WOO!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    Yes!!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    Rooooot!!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Root yess
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    My goodness Carey was annoyed with himself there.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,396
    Root deserved that! He's been fantastic.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,019
    Root canal surgery.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    I’m claiming that one. I missed it because I went to the loo.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Last night's Newsnight was a good taste of what we can expect under a Labour Govt.

    First an excellent, crystal clear piece of analysis from Ben Chu setting out costs and savings of Labour move to green energy. Costs exceed savings until 2044.

    Then Victoria Derbyshire interviews Ed Miliband - Ed going on about savings, lower bills etc. Victoria to her credit challenges him and he says "Of course there will be costs" (!)

    Ed was doing his absolute best not to be clear and straightforward with the public. In summary the public will be paying extra for the next 20 years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    tlg86 said:

    I’m claiming that one. I missed it because I went to the loo.

    Get back in that bog now!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
    No thats Labour being a cesspit with a hierarchy of racism nowt to do with the cricket
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    edited June 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    I’m claiming that one. I missed it because I went to the loo.

    Get back in that bog now!
    I've got to go out to play snooker, does that count?

    Edit - I've cancelled, I'm in for the long haul here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Naa na na, na na na na, na na na na, Joe Root!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    94 balls 2 wkts requred
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    Sandpit said:

    Naa na na, na na na na, na na na na, Joe Root!

    I prefer that chant of 'You're just a shit Moeen Ali' to Nathan Lyon.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,426
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Aus are attacking far too much.

    It's 6pm, they have 3 wickets left, irrespective of overs there is always a chance of bad light.

    People are used now to fast scoring - if you just block it's hard to get people out - eg Cardiff 2009.

    Rain on radar for 6.45 pm according to TMS

    If so draw price very attractive
    Ben Stokes fans please explain.
    He cannot control the weather.

    Yet.
    Shower is near Leominster and is some way off. Its evening so these showers start dying off with the lack of direct heating.

    I think the match will be completed, one way or the other.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,019
    Australia 54 to win with 2 wickets. A reminder they lost by 3 runs on this ground in 2005 chasing pretty much the same total but the last 2 wickets put on over 100 runs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    bigjohnowls said:

    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
    No thats Labour being a cesspit with a hierarchy of racism nowt to do with the cricket
    Lol Give yerself an evening off pal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Matt nails it again

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1671205803246727185
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    MikeL said:

    Last night's Newsnight was a good taste of what we can expect under a Labour Govt.

    First an excellent, crystal clear piece of analysis from Ben Chu setting out costs and savings of Labour move to green energy. Costs exceed savings until 2044.

    Then Victoria Derbyshire interviews Ed Miliband - Ed going on about savings, lower bills etc. Victoria to her credit challenges him and he says "Of course there will be costs" (!)

    Ed was doing his absolute best not to be clear and straightforward with the public. In summary the public will be paying extra for the next 20 years.

    The alternative being another 5 years of continued Tory "success"?

    Public disclaimer: I used to vote Conservative....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
    No thats Labour being a cesspit with a hierarchy of racism nowt to do with the cricket
    Lol Give yerself an evening off pal.
    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Benpointer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Root drops catch

    Starmer's fault
    No thats Labour being a cesspit with a hierarchy of racism nowt to do with the cricket
    Lol Give yerself an evening off pal.
    I was talking cricket till you arrived PAL
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Ugh. Cummins looking far too good here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    14 OFF 3 BALLS

    37 needed
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    This over has cost England the match.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This over has cost England the match.

    Cue jokes about Yorkshire...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    Time for Broad and Anderson.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Buttler 66no in t20 vs Worc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    dixiedean said:

    Time for Broad and Anderson.

    With the new nut.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    OMG.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    That would have been some catch.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,571
    Oh no Stokes so close

    What a thriller
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    👿👿👿
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,019
    Bloody hell, the phone reception on the WCML is worse than I remembered. A clear reason why we need HS2.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    Root & Stokes have cost England this match in the last eight balls.

    Drop them for the next match.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    edited June 2023
    Edited, brain fade.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Thing is, Aus don't need to take risks now. Just drop it in the gaps and run a couple of singles per over.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338
    Bloody I hell, I just went to the loo and it's all gone down the pan!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Why are they not bowling at the stumps? They're not going to get them out bowling short and wide.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Ok, so will this go off the pitch faster and allow them to score?

    This could be over very quickly...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    Benpointer said:

    Bloody I hell, I just went to the loo and it's all gone down the pan!

    Good to know your flush loo works....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    Bloody I hell, I just went to the loo and it's all gone down the pan!

    Good to know your flush loo works....
    We are now all privy to this information.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,322
    Am I imagining things or has there not been a single run-out this match?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    edited June 2023
    If we not had the England declaration, we would have had a boring draw by now....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Oh Crawley...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    21 to win. Australia have this in the bag....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited June 2023
    Well this isn’t going to be a draw.

    Cricinfo comment: "Had a job interview earlier and it was the least stressful part of this afternoon"
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    Not giving up yet
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    Bloody I hell, I just went to the loo and it's all gone down the pan!

    Good to know your flush loo works....
    We are now all privy to this information.
    Should have stayed in the closet :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,140
    Very interesting Trump polling

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/cnn-poll-trump-indictment-republicans-2024/index.html

    Tl:Dr

    Indictment has impacted Trump among primary voters, but not enough to change outcome. Currently.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    londonpubman said:

    Not giving up yet

    England clearly have.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    WinViz: England 59%

    Betfair: England 3.25
This discussion has been closed.