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A LAB majority edges up in the election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And indeed most of the second page.

    Perhaps I'll start talking to myself about knitting patterns, the latest series of the Great British Sewing Bee and the best recipe for banana bread.

    A welcome addition.

    I suggest using bananas.
    And bread.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    Macron accused of promoting toxic masculinity for downing a bottle of beer.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1671133519517474816

    Of all the people to be accused of promoting any kind of masculinity.
    I don't know, I've heard he's a fan of masculine men.
    Well he seems to like Putin and Xi.

    Okay not really like. Just being different to everyone else in his diplomatic approach because he's French.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    You don't come back from the sort of calamitous drop in support that she initiated. She sank her own intentions before they had a chance.

    Going with a steady as she goes strategy from the start might have been ok. Going with a we need change strategy (despite running as the continuity Boris candidate, which is contradictory to that) might have been ok if done competently.

    They've gone with the worst of both worlds by ineptly doing a we need change strategy, then switching to a steady as she goes strategy part way.

    What they probably needed was Sunak to stop the rot, then be able to initiate his own bold plans once steadied. But they've never really recovered enough and his position is too weak even if he were inclined to try something now and have a year's run in to a GE.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited June 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    Macron accused of promoting toxic masculinity for downing a bottle of beer.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1671133519517474816

    Of all the people to be accused of promoting any kind of masculinity.
    I don't know, I've heard he's a fan of masculine men.
    Oh, we're doing a Sturgeon again? Nodding and winking at rumors of sexualities without actually saying it out loud? When do we graduate to "ringing doors and running away"?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,626

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    How would things have played out if she'd stuck to her guns on no energy bailouts and been a bit more strategic about her tax cuts instead?

    Perhaps she was always doomed to unravel because of her style, but it would have been interesting to see a more competent version of Trussism implemented.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    Macron accused of promoting toxic masculinity for downing a bottle of beer.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1671133519517474816

    Of all the people to be accused of promoting any kind of masculinity.
    I don't know, I've heard he's a fan of masculine men.
    Oh, we're doing a Sturgeon again? Nodding and winking at rumors of sexualities without actually saying it out loud? When do we graduate to "ringing doors and running away"?
    Next Thursday.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Cyclefree said:

    EXC with @hzeffman

    Labour is drawing up plans to appoint dozens of new peers

    Despite Starmer criticism of Johnson honours and commitment to abolish Lords, party insiders say new working age peers will be needed if he is to govern effectively

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1671262625039265792

    OH FUCK OFF KEIR

    Didn't he say a few days ago that there would be no more honours while he was PM?
    No, he said he wouldn't ask for resignation honours jimself when in due course he stepped down.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,425
    edited June 2023
    ...
    kle4 said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    You don't come back from the sort of calamitous drop in support that she initiated. She sank her own intentions before they had a chance.

    Going with a steady as she goes strategy from the start might have been ok. Going with a we need change strategy (despite running as the continuity Boris candidate, which is contradictory to that) might have been ok if done competently.

    They've gone with the worst of both worlds by ineptly doing a we need change strategy, then switching to a steady as she goes strategy part way.

    What they probably needed was Sunak to stop the rot, then be able to initiate his own bold plans once steadied. But they've never really recovered enough and his position is too weak even if he were inclined to try something now and have a year's run in to a GE.
    This was always Sunak's plan; the Truss interregnum didn't change his economic misery plan at all; though admittedly it gave him the mood music to get away with it.

    And I think we can stop calling him some kind of steady eddy competent technocrat now that he's left Trussian gilt yield levels eating his dust. He and Hunt are the rot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Eh? Under Truss the Tories were heading for under 50 seats ie less than the LDs in 2001, 2005 and 2010.

    Even now Sunak is heading for at worst about 1997 levels of Tory seats
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2023
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    Macron accused of promoting toxic masculinity for downing a bottle of beer.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1671133519517474816

    Of all the people to be accused of promoting any kind of masculinity.
    I don't know, I've heard he's a fan of masculine men.
    Oh, we're doing a Sturgeon again? Nodding and winking at rumors of sexualities without actually saying it out loud? When do we graduate to "ringing doors and running away"?
    Sturgeon's marriage was always as fake as f*ck.

    As for Macron, let's hand it to him. Not only has he made Marine Le Pen look like a liberal, but he's had a drink named after him - Lockdown Knockdown Ginger Beer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2023

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
    "Freedom!"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Meanwhile, an interesting tactic tomorrow. The Government dropped its proposal to ban live exports, saying that Labour was adding tiresome amendments, and they'd come back to it when there was time in the next session. Labour has now used its Opposition Day to put forward the identical Bill, with no amendments whatever, and a proposed date for all stages of July 12.

    The Government can try to vote it down, but they'd then be voting against the Bill they put forward themselves, without the excuse that it would waste Government time or that there might be tiresome amendments. If they do, they risk a substantial Tory revolt - the influential Conservative Animal Welfare Foundation with 50+ MPs may have the votes to swing it. Or the Government can just give way gracefully and get the issue done with.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65964989

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/tory-mps-expected-to-back-labour-plans-to-reintroduce-animal-welfare-bill

    Good luck, Nick. Give 'em hell! (HMG not the critters.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    Macron accused of promoting toxic masculinity for downing a bottle of beer.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1671133519517474816

    Of all the people to be accused of promoting any kind of masculinity.
    I don't know, I've heard he's a fan of masculine men.
    Oh, we're doing a Sturgeon again? Nodding and winking at rumors of sexualities without actually saying it out loud? When do we graduate to "ringing doors and running away"?
    Next Thursday.
    I'll try to fit it in.

    Fnaar, Fnarr.

    :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,425

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    Rishi Sunak cannot differentiate himself convincingly from Starmer in any meaningful way, or vice versa. Both offer a veneer of competence masking complete inability and/or disinclination to face up to the UK's problems, and both have a nationally-suicidal approach to Net Zero that literally no other Government in the world would even dream of adopting. Starmer will win (in the absence of a meaningful challenge from the right) because it so happens that Sunak is carrying the can at the moment.

    Even coming in now, Truss would stand a better chance of victory, even if she had to start from her polling nadir. All she (or anyone else) would have to do would be to present completely obvious policies that neither Starmer nor Sunak are brave enough to do.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    HYUFD said:

    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    @malcolmg , will you tell him about the Highland Clearances or shall I? I lack your gift for invective.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,425
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2023
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    @malcolmg , will you tell him about the Highland Clearances or shall I? I lack your gift for invective.

    That was 300 years ago, it has about as much relevance to today's aristocracy as Wallace sacking much of Northern England.

    Carnyx has already involved himself in disrespecting those on the sub in the Atlantic because they are rich he doesn't need to be encouraged anymore in his puerile repulsive class war usual chippyness by attacking today's aristocracy too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
    As it takes time to undo the damage she and Kwarteng wrecked on the economy, crashing the £, massively expanding borrowing and the deficit and starting the shift to much higher interest rates.

    As I said, Truss would have led the Tories to Canada 1993 style wipeout, even a 1997 level defeat for Sunak would be better than that
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,957
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
    William Wallace was just the type of yeoman minor nobility (Scotch version) that people like you adulate. Turning one of his enemy's skins into a baldric is just the sort of behaviour he could have learned at a minor public school, if they had existed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,425
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
    As it takes time to undo the damage she and Kwarteng wrecked on the economy, crashing the £, massively expanding borrowing and the deficit and starting the shift to much higher interest rates.

    As I said, Truss would have led the Tories to Canada 1993 style wipeout, even a 1997 level defeat for Sunak would be better than that
    1. Oh dear. That makes zero sense as any sort of attempted explanation. The markets officially have less confidence in the UK's ability to pay its debts after Sunak has been working his economic charm for the best part of a year, than they did in the immediate aftermath of the so-called catastrophic mini budget. Just let that sink in.

    2. No. Polls are a snapshot not a prediction. It is almost inconceivable that polling levels for the Tories wouldn't have reverted nearer average, whether Truss had stayed or gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
    As it takes time to undo the damage she and Kwarteng wrecked on the economy, crashing the £, massively expanding borrowing and the deficit and starting the shift to much higher interest rates.

    As I said, Truss would have led the Tories to Canada 1993 style wipeout, even a 1997 level defeat for Sunak would be better than that
    1. Oh dear. That makes zero sense as any sort of attempted explanation. The markets officially have less confidence in the UK's ability to pay its debts after Sunak has been working his economic charm for the best part of a year, than they did in the immediate aftermath of the so-called catastrophic mini budget. Just let that sink in.

    2. No. Polls are a snapshot not a prediction. It is almost inconceivable that polling levels for the Tories wouldn't have reverted nearer average, whether Truss had stayed or gone.
    Under Truss the final Yougov poll under her premiership had the Tories heading for just 28 seats. The latest Yougov has them on
    157 seats
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8w0a2xhvy8/TheTimes_VI_Results_221021_W.pdf

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=23&LAB=51&LIB=9&Reform=3&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17.4&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=1.4&SCOTGreen=2.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=37.8&display=AllMajoritySorted&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ig7p3wh5fs/TheTimes_VI_230607_W.pdf


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=26&LAB=42&LIB=11&Reform=7&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17.4&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=1.4&SCOTGreen=2.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=37.8&display=AllMajoritySorted&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,253
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    Were there many non-bastard medieval monarchs though?
    Perhaps aye, perhaps naw.

    I just find it a stretch to say that Sunak's government is the worst ever.
    William the Bastard was egregiously bad, even for the time, though. I can't say confidently he was the worst, but possibly the worst of the famous ones.
    William Rufus was so unpopular, that in an age where accidentally injuring the king meant an unpleasant death, they all just said that the chap who shot him… was the real victim. And did nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
    William Wallace was just the type of yeoman minor nobility (Scotch version) that people like you adulate. Turning one of his enemy's skins into a baldric is just the sort of behaviour he could have learned at a minor public school, if they had existed.
    No he was a thuggish Scottish Nationalist who quite happily sacked most of northern England.

    And given recent events amongst senior SNP figures you hardly are in a position to lecture about moral behaviour!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,957
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
    William Wallace was just the type of yeoman minor nobility (Scotch version) that people like you adulate. Turning one of his enemy's skins into a baldric is just the sort of behaviour he could have learned at a minor public school, if they had existed.
    No he was a thuggish Scottish Nationalist who quite happily sacked most of northern England.

    And given recent events amongst senior SNP figures you hardly are in a position to lecture about moral behaviour!
    I'm not lecturing anyone about 'moral behaviour' whatever the feck that might be, just making the obvious point that you'll drop your petit bourgeois drawers at any sniff of nobility.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278
    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    WillG said:
    What a very peculiar post.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.

    I mean, the Titanic lay undiscovered for 73 years. What do you think is left of the people?
    Nothing. The sea took them long ago (probably within the first year in most cases) but... don't you think there's something kind of macabre about wanting to go 13,000 feet underwater to view what is in effect an enormous coffin/grave at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.

    I mean, the Titanic lay undiscovered for 73 years. What do you think is left of the people?
    Nothing. The sea took them long ago (probably within the first year in most cases) but... don't you think there's something kind of macabre about wanting to go 13,000 feet underwater to view what is in effect an enormous coffin/grave at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean?
    The Titanic partakes in a number of categories. Grave is one of them. But it's also a wreck, an icon of an era, a symbol of hubris, and so much more. It's intrinsically interesting beyond its status as grave.

    If someone goes there just hoping to see a body, I'd find them strange. But if someone went there because hey -- it's the Titanic! -- then that's something I can perfectly well understand.

    People visit sites of battles and places like the Tower of London without it necessarily being macabre.
    Well I wouldn't want to visit... but each to their own I guess. 😂

    Anyway, hopefully the submarine is found and everyone survives this latest Titanic drama... 🙏
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cyclefree said:

    EXC with @hzeffman

    Labour is drawing up plans to appoint dozens of new peers

    Despite Starmer criticism of Johnson honours and commitment to abolish Lords, party insiders say new working age peers will be needed if he is to govern effectively

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1671262625039265792

    OH FUCK OFF KEIR

    Didn't he say a few days ago that there would be no more honours while he was PM?
    Since Boris removed any notion of honour from the grant of a peerage, he's in the clear to pack the HoL ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    The backdrop behind this vile individual is no great surprise.
    A BBC investigation has uncovered an international network of people paying Indonesians to torture & kill baby monkeys on film

    “The Torture King", American Mike McCartney, was reportedly a key distributor of the videos in the US.

    Here is “The Torture King" at home in Virginia.

    https://twitter.com/ChaoticVegasMan/status/1671197639386484736
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Cyclefree said:

    EXC with @hzeffman

    Labour is drawing up plans to appoint dozens of new peers

    Despite Starmer criticism of Johnson honours and commitment to abolish Lords, party insiders say new working age peers will be needed if he is to govern effectively

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1671262625039265792

    OH FUCK OFF KEIR

    Didn't he say a few days ago that there would be no more honours while he was PM?
    No, he said he wouldn't ask for resignation honours jimself when in due course he stepped down.
    In the real world there is hardly going to be a political penalty for breaking a promise that he can keep right up until the day he steps down - especially since almost every PM is already discredited at that point anyway!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Nigelb said:

    The backdrop behind this vile individual is no great surprise.
    A BBC investigation has uncovered an international network of people paying Indonesians to torture & kill baby monkeys on film

    “The Torture King", American Mike McCartney, was reportedly a key distributor of the videos in the US.

    Here is “The Torture King" at home in Virginia.

    https://twitter.com/ChaoticVegasMan/status/1671197639386484736

    It really is bizarre what some people get off on.

    There was a case in the U.K. 20 years ago of a group of people who filmed themselves stamping on insects and mice and torturing animals for sexual gratification.

    You just think why ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,580
    edited June 2023

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.

    I mean, the Titanic lay undiscovered for 73 years. What do you think is left of the people?
    Probably nothing. There will not even be skeletons. There is a little known fact that below a certain depth pressure and temperature causes calcium carbonate to redissolve into the seawater. It is known as the carbonate compensation depth or CCD. The seawater is depleted in Carbonate so it causes bone and shell to dissolve into it. I am not sure exactly what depth it occurs at as it varies but I think the Titanic is probably below that depth.
    I've only seen one picture that has any evidence of human bodies at the Titanic wreck It was of two boots on the seabed, a couple of feet apart, and angled slightly away from each other, as if the wearer had been lying on his side, with his legs apart. The body has decomposed leaving no trace, but the treated leather of the boots remains.

    It was incredibly poignant.

    Edit: from a quick google, it might be a myth that the boots were on a body.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.

    I mean, the Titanic lay undiscovered for 73 years. What do you think is left of the people?
    Nothing. The sea took them long ago (probably within the first year in most cases) but... don't you think there's something kind of macabre about wanting to go 13,000 feet underwater to view what is in effect an enormous coffin/grave at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean?
    The Titanic partakes in a number of categories. Grave is one of them. But it's also a wreck, an icon of an era, a symbol of hubris, and so much more. It's intrinsically interesting beyond its status as grave.

    If someone goes there just hoping to see a body, I'd find them strange. But if someone went there because hey -- it's the Titanic! -- then that's something I can perfectly well understand.

    People visit sites of battles and places like the Tower of London without it necessarily being macabre.
    Every time across the Atlantic by ship, you get an announcement if it’s not dead of the night and the ship passes anywhere near the spot.

    Nowadays it seems a most unlikely spot for an iceberg to be knocking about in April.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,580
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder if this missing submarine might bring to an end people going down to the wreck of Titanic to view and scout the sight?

    I've always felt there's something in rather bad taste about people constantly visiting this site... To me it's almost like digging up someone's grave to see what's in their coffin...

    Optimum result for me is that the submarine is found and everyone is saved, and then the US government put a 100 year moratorium on people visiting Titanic... And the ship and all those that perished in 1912 are finally allowed to rest in peace.

    The mythos of the Titanic is such that it was inevitable that people would search for it until it was found. And once found, that the wreck would be thoroughly surveyed - like, say, the Bismarck.

    Yet other deep wrecks don't seem to have this 'tourism' angle. I'm also uneasy about stuff being brought up from the wreck - but having said that, I did go to an exhibition at the museum in Greenwich which featured objects raised from the Titanic, and it was fascinating. So perhaps I'm part of the problem.

    Incidentally, a friend paid a lot of money to go to dive on HMS Repulse, on which 500+ people died. It is a deep, technical dive. When he arrived on the boat and was aclimatising, he got food poisoning and could not dive...

    The wreck of Repulse is being destroyed by scrap metal dealers, so diving is hardly the worst sin on that war grave.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,247

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have
    exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
    Roughly speaking gilts have 3 components

    - the base cost of money
    - A policy premium (to control inflation)
    - A risk premium (for crazy government)

    What has happened is that Truss had a high risk premium but a low policy premium

    But the market has woken up to the fact that Bailey is a bit crap. Inflation is not going down as quickly as expected to the policy premium is higher (interest rates will need to be higher for longer).

    This offsets the risk premium on the government side, sp the overall gilt rate is similar
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited June 2023
    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should have kept Truss. She was a disaster but there was a tiny chance she could have won.

    Sunak is too boring, unimaginative and geeky to not lose in a big way.

    Cut your losses vs. go for broke.

    Sunak's premiership bakes in a hefty defeat, and every month that passes makes it harder to explain why 1997 isn't providing the fundamental base map for thinking about the next election.

    By throwing everything up in the air, Truss opened the door to a small possibility of a remarkable triumph, albeit with the downside of a high probability of utter disaster. I'm not sure it's a gamble I want tried in a country I'm living in.

    The reason it's called going for broke is that's how you mostly end up.
    She also crashed the markets with her Chancellor and helped cause the high interest rates we now have for mortgage holders.

    There is a possibility had she remained PM the Tories would have come 4th behind the LDs and SNP as well as Labour, at least on seats if not votes.

    After all why vote for a libertarian Liberal like Truss who crashes the markets when you can vote for an Orange Book Liberal Democrat like Davey who is more sensible and was part of Cameron's coalition government too anyway?
    Do explain why gilt yields under Sunak have
    exceeded the levels they went to under Truss?
    Roughly speaking gilts have 3 components

    - the base cost of money
    - A policy premium (to control inflation)
    - A risk premium (for crazy government)

    What has happened is that Truss had a high risk premium but a low policy premium

    But the market has woken up to the fact that Bailey is a bit crap. Inflation is not going down as quickly as expected to the policy premium is higher (interest rates will need to be higher for longer).

    This offsets the risk premium on the government side, sp the overall gilt rate is similar
    And, picking up the conv overnight, Truss only offers a theoretical chance of victory due to the high randomness assumed to apply to her electoral prospects. The mean, median and modal outcomes, had she stuck around, are all surely worse than Sunak’s.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    Beginning to think these figures are meaningless. Everyone's inflation rate is different. It depends what you buy... or don't buy.
    And above whose expectations.....
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited June 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    CPI unchanged at 8.7%

    Core inflation up from 6.8% to 7.1%.

    Described as "very bad news" by analyst on Times Radio, who added that interest rates are now more likely to go up by 50 basis points.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    0.7% month-on-month inflation.

    Really quite bad numbers. Expect short-end gilt yields to sell off (increase) today. Wonder if it brings a 0.5% rate hike tomorrow onto the table, rather than just 0.25%.

    The UK is failing to get inflation under control so far.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Highest core inflation since 1992
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    Beginning to think these figures are meaningless. Everyone's inflation rate is different. It depends what you buy... or don't buy.
    And above whose expectations.....
    Well I can only assume you are an extremely wealthy individual with no mortgage, tone deaf, or trolling?

    Jeez. Seriously? I do my weekly shop and it's awful. And many of my closest relatives are in despair over their mortgage situation.*

    And you think this is 'meaningless'?

    * I don't have a mortgage because I don't own a house. I rent.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    IanB2 said:

    Highest core inflation since 1992

    Wasn't this the month that was meant to be quite good as the energy price shock started to fall out of the calculation?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    IanB2 said:

    Highest core inflation since 1992

    Wasn't this the month that was meant to be quite good as the energy price shock started to fall out of the calculation?
    Yes, although core inflation excludes energy prices as well as food.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706

    IanB2 said:

    Highest core inflation since 1992

    Wasn't this the month that was meant to be quite good as the energy price shock started to fall out of the calculation?
    That happened in April 2023 when CPI fell from 10.1% to 8.7% - energy price cap had risen on 1 April 2022 so that rise dropped out of comparator in April 2023.

    (As per above post, energy is only in headline CPI, not core CPI).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 2023
    Ratters said:

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    0.7% month-on-month inflation.

    Really quite bad numbers. Expect short-end gilt yields to sell off (increase) today. Wonder if it brings a 0.5% rate hike tomorrow onto the table, rather than just 0.25%.

    The UK is failing to get inflation under control so far.
    These are really bad figures.

    The markets aren't going to be happy. Likely to be further serious trouble with LIBOR and it's now certain the BoE will put up interest rates again, perhaps by 0.5% rather than the expected 0.25%.

    I can't begin to describe the despair I'm hearing from homeowners needing to renew their mortgages.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Henry VI and Richard II were remarkable for their incompetence, as was Stephen.

    And don't get me started on John (serial rapist) and Richard III (infanticide).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    BBC: As per the Office for National Statistics, here's some more detail on that headline inflation figure.

    - Rising prices for air travel, recreational and cultural goods and services, and second-hand cars resulted in the largest upward contributions
    - Falling prices for motor fuel led to the largest downward contribution
    - Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in May 2023 but by less than in May 2022
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Oooh Starmer is showing me some leg and using the principle of the Windsor Agreement as some of us predicted.

    Labour will go through Britain’s Brexit trade deal “page by page” to renegotiate closer economic ties with Brussels, the shadow foreign secretary has pledged.

    In a speech to business leaders David Lammy said a future Labour government would seek a deal to cut checks on British food exports by agreeing to uphold EU veterinary standards.

    He also suggested Labour was ready to look again at freedom of movement and would aim to strike a flexible mobility agreement to allow EU and UK citizens the right to travel for short-term business trips without requiring a visa.

    The UK’s trade and co-operation agreement with the EU is due to be reopened in 2026, and Labour’s proposals would greatly increase its scope.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-could-tear-up-brussels-deal-to-forge-closer-economic-links-with-europe-kbc6kvlmv
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Henry VI and Richard II were remarkable for their incompetence, as was Stephen.

    And don't get me started on John (serial rapist) and Richard III (infanticide).
    Edward VIII was an actual Nazi.

    King James II, when he was Duke of York, branded slaves with his initials, however he wasn't the worst Duke of York.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    The figures aren't great.
    There has been a certain breezy insouciance that they'll come down quickly and soon.
    They aren't doing either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    The things I spend a lot of money on are going up a lot, clothes & footwear, recreation & culture, and hotels & restaurants.

    It's a struggle on the breadline.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Meanwhile, the Tory tax is that £1 supermarket items are now £1.25

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/grocery-supermarket-inflation-great-britain-eases-remains-high-kantar

    A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.

    “The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”

    This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.

    Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    The figures aren't great.
    There has been a certain breezy insouciance that they'll come down quickly and soon.
    They aren't doing either.
    Sunak, all mouth and no trousers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Oooh Starmer is showing me some leg and using the principle of the Windsor Agreement as some of us predicted.

    Labour will go through Britain’s Brexit trade deal “page by page” to renegotiate closer economic ties with Brussels, the shadow foreign secretary has pledged.

    In a speech to business leaders David Lammy said a future Labour government would seek a deal to cut checks on British food exports by agreeing to uphold EU veterinary standards.

    He also suggested Labour was ready to look again at freedom of movement and would aim to strike a flexible mobility agreement to allow EU and UK citizens the right to travel for short-term business trips without requiring a visa.

    The UK’s trade and co-operation agreement with the EU is due to be reopened in 2026, and Labour’s proposals would greatly increase its scope.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-could-tear-up-brussels-deal-to-forge-closer-economic-links-with-europe-kbc6kvlmv

    If Labour is willing to sign up to some EU standards, such as the veterinary ones, then hopefully the current fiasco and paperwork maze for people travelling abroad with their pets will soon be brought to an end :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Henry VI and Richard II were remarkable for their incompetence, as was Stephen.

    And don't get me started on John (serial rapist) and Richard III (infanticide).
    Edward VIII was an actual Nazi.

    King James II, when he was Duke of York, branded slaves with his initials, however he wasn't the worst Duke of York.
    Edward VIII wasn't however 'the government.'
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Oooh Starmer is showing me some leg and using the principle of the Windsor Agreement as some of us predicted.

    Labour will go through Britain’s Brexit trade deal “page by page” to renegotiate closer economic ties with Brussels, the shadow foreign secretary has pledged.

    In a speech to business leaders David Lammy said a future Labour government would seek a deal to cut checks on British food exports by agreeing to uphold EU veterinary standards.

    He also suggested Labour was ready to look again at freedom of movement and would aim to strike a flexible mobility agreement to allow EU and UK citizens the right to travel for short-term business trips without requiring a visa.

    The UK’s trade and co-operation agreement with the EU is due to be reopened in 2026, and Labour’s proposals would greatly increase its scope.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-could-tear-up-brussels-deal-to-forge-closer-economic-links-with-europe-kbc6kvlmv

    It's interesting. I think a majority of people would take closer economic ties if it was made clear it would lead to 1. lower inflation and 2. mortgage relief

    @RochdalePioneers has also just made a very good point about business so let's make that point 3.

    If the Daily Mail think frothing about this is where their readership are at, then they are badly mistaken. You touch a person's home and you're politically finished.

    This is no longer just about where we shop. It's about where we live.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Henry VI and Richard II were remarkable for their incompetence, as was Stephen.

    And don't get me started on John (serial rapist) and Richard III (infanticide).
    Edward VIII was an actual Nazi.

    King James II, when he was Duke of York, branded slaves with his initials, however he wasn't the worst Duke of York.
    Edward VIII wasn't however 'the government.'
    I know, I was adding some colour to the debate.

    Would you say the abdication crisis was the UK's last proper constitutional crisis?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    The figures aren't great.
    There has been a certain breezy insouciance that they'll come down quickly and soon.
    They aren't doing either.
    Sunak, all mouth and no trousers.
    To be fair, there isn't a simple solution. It isn't low interest rates that is causing inflation.

    A more realistic offer on pay settlements is needed though, and most importantly a truly independent pay board rather than one stuffed with government lackeys.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
    Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.

    Guess, this is the same everywhere?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
    Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.

    Guess, this is the same everywhere?
    Inflation is 8.7%, it should be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Henry VI and Richard II were remarkable for their incompetence, as was Stephen.

    And don't get me started on John (serial rapist) and Richard III (infanticide).
    Edward VIII was an actual Nazi.

    King James II, when he was Duke of York, branded slaves with his initials, however he wasn't the worst Duke of York.
    Edward VIII wasn't however 'the government.'
    I know, I was adding some colour to the debate.

    Would you say the abdication crisis was the UK's last proper constitutional crisis?
    I would have thought the Brexit crisis of 2017-19 would qualify. There were quite a few constitutional issues involved.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Taz said:

    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
    Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.

    Guess, this is the same everywhere?
    Inflation is 8.7%, it should be.
    It should be what?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Bad inflation figures and that CPI is a real concern . The BOE and no 10 have completely lost control of this . The pressure for a 0.5 rate rise is growing .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
    Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.

    Guess, this is the same everywhere?
    Junior doctors got 2% last year, Consultants 4.75%. No offer has been made for this year yet at all, hence the strikes.

    Provisional date for the BMA consultant strike is 20-21 July, though I am on Leave that week anyway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Meanwhile, the Tory tax is that £1 supermarket items are now £1.25

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/grocery-supermarket-inflation-great-britain-eases-remains-high-kantar

    A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.

    “The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”

    This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.

    Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...

    People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.

    Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.

    As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    edited June 2023
    Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.

    Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Slept like a log. Cognac is today's destination, along the river all day.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Argh that inflation figure is bad.

    It's both a cost of living AND mortgage crisis

    I've been banging on about the mortgage disaster for a couple of months and now it's hitting the headlines.

    Really grim :(

    A friend of mine is a Chartered Accountant specialising in businesses in distress. He advises that as well as the mortgage disaster, worse will be the business disaster. Too many businesses up to their eyeballs in debt post-Covid who will be demolished by the end of their current low interest rate financing.
    Expect the strikes to continue too.

    BMA Consultants strike ballot closes this week.

    (I am not in the BMA so not voting)
    Where I work there is a talk of a 2% pay settlement. The unions will throw it back at the clowns at the top and industrial action will follow.

    Guess, this is the same everywhere?
    Inflation is 8.7%, it should be.
    It should be what?
    The same everywhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,253
    Nigelb said:

    The backdrop behind this vile individual is no great surprise.
    A BBC investigation has uncovered an international network of people paying Indonesians to torture & kill baby monkeys on film

    “The Torture King", American Mike McCartney, was reportedly a key distributor of the videos in the US.

    Here is “The Torture King" at home in Virginia.

    https://twitter.com/ChaoticVegasMan/status/1671197639386484736

    Without clicking the link - profound interest in Nazi memorabilia?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    DavidL said:

    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.

    It takes a while for mortgage prices to hit spending. In the meantime there is a perverse logic to buy now and beat the price rise.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,424
    Wow. Next administration looks of supremely high quality.

    "One party source said: “It’s ironic they talk so much about abolishing the Lords because we’re going to need to appoint a dozen peers on day one to do big junior ministerial jobs that the MPs shadowing them aren’t up to doing.”

    A shadow cabinet minister added: “Over the past two elections there have perhaps been ten Labour MPs who meet the standards you would expect of ministerial office. There are maybe two or three in the 2019 intake. Keir will need to make up that shortfall of experience and quality somehow.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-house-of-lords-new-peers-plan-2023-klqzkh637?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Best of Times 2023 June 21&utm_term=audience_BEST_OF_TIMES

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    nico679 said:

    Bad inflation figures and that CPI is a real concern . The BOE and no 10 have completely lost control of this . The pressure for a 0.5 rate rise is growing .

    Rishi Sunak, when he tried to piggy back the expected fall in inflation over the year, by proclaiming he would halve the rate of inflation may very well have made a tactical error.

    Inflation is incredibly stick and shows no sign of falling. Core inflation is increasing.

    What an utter shambles.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    This version of the Tories are the worst Government in British political history.

    William the Bastard was a few degrees worse.
    Incorrect.
    Literal ethnic cleansing!

    Apparently when he wanted to marry Matilda, she refused. So her dragged her out of mass and beat her. Later, when they were married and he was stressed about the upcoming war of conquest he was about to engage in, he kicked her. With his spurs. His wife. He kicked his wife with his spurs.

    And then there's the ethnic cleansing. Did I mention the ethnic cleansing?
    William the Utter Bastard
    A boat person, though. Illegal immigrant across the English Channel. So I don't know why our more lickspittle Tories are so keen to cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era. Not exactly consistent.
    'To cringe to "aristocrats" descended from the most murderous boat people of that era?'

    Even most of the Lords now aren't descended from William the Conqueror's top earls and commanders.

    The King has more Stuart and Tudor and Hanoverian and greek blood than Plantagenet and Norman
    You said the other day most of the Lords aren't "toffs" so didn't count. Sou your reply is irrelevant. We're talking about so-called "aristicrats" here. Not the un-posh peers we get in the HoL/.
    Less than 20% of the Lords are now from the old hereditary peerage. So there is nothing to cringe to as you switch from your vile and pathetic class war mockery of those trapped in the sub in the Atlantic as they happen to be rich to attacking the remaining hereditary peers who are more likely to be running their estates and preserving them for future generations than in the House of Lords.
    Your deranged fantasy. I haven't said anything about the crew of the sub.

    And as for hereditary peers - I'm not attacking them. I'm commenting on youjr Tory fantasies about the nobility of the thuggish boat people of 1066.
    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    I may as well condemn you for lauding the thuggish William Wallace
    When have I criticised the aristocracy themselves? I'm criticising the slavish and irrational deference you so helpfully display yet again to those who are 'aristocrats' simply because they are descended from the right sort of boat people and foreign criminals, in contrast to the wrong sort of boat people which your party is always attacking. .

    And when have I said that about Wallace?

    I am just about to drink a glass of water. Yes, water. Is that going to trigger you yet again?


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    DavidL said:

    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.

    This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MaxPB said:

    Import price inflation is close to zero and producer price inflation is under 3%, yet CPI is still 8.7% - the UK economy is fundamentally broken. There's not enough competition in key areas and everyone is paying the price for 20 years of consolidation and the competition regulator allowing for oligopolies and monopolies to take root.

    Everything else is much less important than fixing the uncompetitive domestic market.

    See for a really obvious example - petrol station fuel prices.

    Remember Asda used to lead the price cuts now it's owned by EG who have always been expensive.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Good morning, everyone.

    Those inflation stats look weird. Most of the upward pressure is of less essential stuff, while food's down.

    Why is inflation proving stickier here than elsewhere?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Wow. Next administration looks of supremely high quality.

    "One party source said: “It’s ironic they talk so much about abolishing the Lords because we’re going to need to appoint a dozen peers on day one to do big junior ministerial jobs that the MPs shadowing them aren’t up to doing.”

    A shadow cabinet minister added: “Over the past two elections there have perhaps been ten Labour MPs who meet the standards you would expect of ministerial office. There are maybe two or three in the 2019 intake. Keir will need to make up that shortfall of experience and quality somehow.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-house-of-lords-new-peers-plan-2023-klqzkh637?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Best of Times 2023 June 21&utm_term=audience_BEST_OF_TIMES

    10 MPs of ministerial standard is strong progress from the current government!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Good morning, everyone.

    Those inflation stats look weird. Most of the upward pressure is of less essential stuff, while food's down.

    Why is inflation proving stickier here than elsewhere?

    Lack of competition, companies feel comfortable keeping prices high because they know people have got no choice and business regulations are so onerous there's no risk of new entrants coming along and stealing their lunch.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Spectacularly bad inflation numbers.

    The Government and Bank Of England have really lost control of this situation!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.

    This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
    Lots of French and Italians too from the languages I heard. And those bloody campervans on the A9. I blame Nicola for that one, started a trend so she did.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of the aristocracy are educated, cultured and care about the land and estates they manage and the people they employ.

    @malcolmg , will you tell him about the Highland Clearances or shall I? I lack your gift for invective.

    The peasants turned out to be Liberal voters (no wonder, so Don't Count in HYUFD-land. Or they went off to become Anglo-Saxons in Canada etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.

    This has, so far, been a bumper year for travel across Europe, particularly by Americans who seem to have been slower to overcome their covid-related fear of being abroad and of course with a currently strong $. CNN had a piece on it recently, and there are tons of anecdotes from crowded tourist spots.
    Lots of French and Italians too from the languages I heard. And those bloody campervans on the A9. I blame Nicola for that one, started a trend so she did.
    I take the joke - but interestingly it was the local trade association that started up the NC500 thing. Rather too successfully.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited June 2023
    Just listening to R4 about the cricket. I find it difficult to believe that anyone cares. What a boring game.

    And now they are inventing new terms ("bazball" ffs, like teens using edgy slang in the vain attempt to appear cool) to try and make it even slightly more less boring.

    But I know I'm pushing at an open door here on PB so I won't go on about it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Spectacularly bad inflation numbers.

    The Government and Bank Of England have really lost control of this situation!

    Totally and utterly.

    Shambolic.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Taz said:

    Meanwhile, the Tory tax is that £1 supermarket items are now £1.25

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/grocery-supermarket-inflation-great-britain-eases-remains-high-kantar

    A key point: “People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.

    “The most prominent change we’ve seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients.”

    This may not be a bad thing - simpler food with less added crap would be good for our overall health. But its being done through desperation rather than positive choice.

    Meanwhile in restaurants world, the same is being done. The amount of downgrading of ingredients on restaurant menus is mind-boggling. That the cheaper ingredient is being combined with a price rise for the diner just rubs salt in the wound...

    People are not mugs. They will just stop dining out. Our local dining out facebook page used to be full of nice meals in local restaurants now its full of "Look at what I got for £15.00 !!!!" posts.

    Recessions and economic downturns are great for dining and drinking at home. In 2008 I was working for a company that made machinery for food production. Our order book went from strength to strength as a consequence.

    As for Food inflation being a Tory tax, food inflation is high all over but is coming down. It is a stretch to blame the Tories for that in its entirity. I have noticed some of my regular food purchases are starting to decrease in price too so I am more optimistic.
    So having just quoted you actual industry data, you think that your personal experience is more correct / valid? It is of course correct that even in the middle of this inflation bomb the supermarkets are competing and trying to out-position on price. But the odd price cut is not prices falling - they are making the money back on the rest of the basket which is rising.

    So in any given basket of items, a couple with the prices dropping and the rest with the prices rising means the overall cost to buy it is rising. A lot. If you only buy the two items that are mega price competitive and dropped, good for you. Doesn't mean you have any right to be optimistic about the items you are not buying though.
This discussion has been closed.