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Starmer extends his approval lead over Sunak – politicalbetting.com
Starmer extends his approval lead over Sunak – politicalbetting.com
As well as the regular general election voting intention polls we should not ignore the leader approval numbers and the latest weekly numbers from R&W sees both Sunak and Starmer taking a bit of a tumble.
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Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
: Labour lead at 16 🚨
Labour 44% (-5 from March)
Con 28% (+2)
Lib Dem 13% (+2)
Green 5% (nc)
Other 8% (nc)
F/W 10-16 May (changes from March)
“In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”
+++
It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst
Phenomenally creepy
I just checked the runners and riders again (from the first contest, the one he lost). JFC.
The same director did “Capturing the Friedmans” which is equally as good / disturbing.
I think 2029 will be winnable for CON after 2024 but they could go spiraling off to a decade or more in the wilderness if the ERG are the dominant grouping after they are defeated.
Given how the party is behaving at the moment I wouldn't be overly surprised if we have a decade of Labour government from 2024 despite the fact I think they will become unpopular quite quickly...
So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.
To give myself as an example: I'm no fan of the Tories, but my view is that in most of the ways Labour have been critical of the Tories, the actual solutions they propose are worse (SKS's lockdown enthusiasm being an obvious example). Many on the right will conclude the same.
It's easy to say 'that lot are crap' but hard to find a proposition around which a majority can say 'that sounds much better'.
That's not a direct criticism of Labour, just a recognition that the electorate is diverse and very difficult to get to agree with you.
2024 is one of those “turnings” you see occasionally, like 2010, 1997, 1979, 1964.
I urge you to watch Capturing the Friedmans with a stiff drink.
If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
EDIT: Though I wouldn't say the ERG should have no influence whatsoever as that doesn't seem very democratic given their views represent a chunk of the electorate. But obviously if/when CON get back into government it will be from the center right as always...
“The problem comes when one actually watches The Jinx. The series is so manipulative, so plodding, so pointlessly morbid, so self-congratulatory, so obviously geared to deliver one, single news-making/ratings-grabbing moment “
https://www2.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/sight-sound-magazine/reviews-recommendations/tv/jinx-not-my-documentary-renaissance
Lol. They are such twats. Sight and Sound magazine. God help them
What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
In some respects it doesn't make much difference who the new leader is of a party that has lost power if the new government does a good job on the economy. Ken Clarke would still have lost to Blair in 2001 and David Miliband still likely have lost to Cameron in 2015 even if it had been closer.
We had regular changes of government in 1964, 1970, 1974 and then 1979 though as neither the Heath nor Wilson/Callaghan governments could manage the economy effectively until Thatcher won and finally got a grip on it
Harry Sussex loses his appeal against the Home Secretary, over the process for denying him police protection.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/05/23/prince-harry-loses-second-legal-challenge-home-office/
Now what will the judge do with costs, must be over a million?
We should get much better news on inflation tomorrow and of course everyone lives and breathes the latest IMF forecast so the Tories will get a massive boost from that as newspapers and media who majored on their original figures reverse course (lol).
By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.
Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.
Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.
The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.
The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
What kind of depraved individual orders a decaf latte?
Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right
You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance
He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted
I fiercely hope I’m wrong
The Tories have simply run out of road
https://lookstranger.substack.com/p/speech-unspun
Oh no siree.
There is one who can save them.
THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE
Even if you allow for the possibility that Brexit has objectively been a good thing, the steadily growing will of the people is to regard it as a mistake. Doesn't Matter- the public are right, even when they're wrong. And the people who persuaded the public to do this in the first place are pretty much all diminished in the public's eyes.
To take a popular analogy, the country is not only back on the pill, but it's got a headache.
“The truth is very different. In fact, the migration statistics reflect something that is rare indeed in the UK right now – a successful policy implemented efficiently and effectively and, even rarer, the crystallisation of a genuine “Brexit opportunity””
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/23/panic-immigration-brexit-wages-uk-economy
“In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”
Well I never
You should have known that, ask your mate Sean for clarification. He would have understood that.
1) That the argument has been 'won' by remain. This is not a given. Without rehashing all the old rubbish part of the reason Brexit is seen in such bad light is effects of covid and the CoL crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine. People are associating rising prices in Tesco's with Brexit, gleefully egged on by those who should (and do) know better. Brexit so far has been poor economically, but it is not the only economic headwind.
2) That your cohort of leave voters should apologise. Much of the rage about Brexit involves the idea that Leavers told lies and that the lies were believed. If this is the case, many of the leave voters should not need to apologise - they were fooled, taken in, deceived.
3) Both sides
liedpredicted the future with very poor levels of accuracy. For every 'easiest trade deal in history' I give you 'immediate recesssion, millions unemployed'."...In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services..." [link]
Whatever the point of Brexit was, I'm pretty sure "drive down workers' wages by importing cheap labour from elsewhere" wasn't it.
But seriously, I wonder what the split actually is now. Are there more living people who voted Leave than voted Remain? That's quite an interesting question, isn't it. We can probably work it out to a reasonable confidence level from the data available. I might have a bash.
IMHO a combination of career politicians, a toxic media, loud online campaign groups, and a combination of major world events over the past 15 years that leave very little room for manoeuvre financially.
"Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".
Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
All those moaning Minnies who decry the playoff system can get in the sea/bin. They’re brilliant and make for fantastic occasions.
The guardian has turned. Brexit = good
In the course of a lecture, he remarked in passing that such-and-such a statement was obviously true. A student nervously raised his hand and said "Is that really obvious?". The lecturer looked puzzled, pondered for a few minutes and then left the room.
Half an hour later he returned, looking relieved. "Yes, it is obvious!" he announced, and continued the lecture without further comment.
Turns out he's not actually swimming the channel, he's part of a relay.
Now its still a good effort - open water swimming in the English Channel is tough, but its not 'swimming the channel' in my eyes. This is not the first time I've seen this - Alex Brooker did this with Channel 4 a while back.
You'd never say you'd run a marathon if in fact you had done a few miles of a relay, would you?
https://standard.co.uk/news/uk/epidermolysis-bullosa-butterfly-skin-graeme-souness-debra-charity-b1082876.html
Am I just a curmudgeonly old git?
A county judge says Lake provided no evidence that mail-in ballot signature verification wasn’t conducted during the 2020 Arizona General Election.
Katie Hobbs is rightfully Arizona’s 24th governor, a county judge ruled for the second time Monday.
Following three days of trial asking whether the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election was stolen from former television news anchor Kari Lake based on her claim that mail-in ballot signature verification wasn't conducted, Maricopa County Judge Peter Thompson has ruled against Lake.
Lake, who claimed the election was stolen before the results were even counted, sued Hobbs, the Arizona Secretary of State and Maricopa County on seven claims of mass voter fraud soon after losing to Hobbs by roughly 17,000 votes. The case made its way to the Arizona Supreme Court before being sent back to trial court on one remaining claim dealing with mail-in ballot signatures. . . .
To win, Lake needed to prove “by a competent mathematical basis” that signature verification wasn’t conducted and the lack of verification affected the outcome of the election. This was a concession from her original intent to call into question a specific number of ballots that were fraudulently counted, which Thompson said would have been “a herculean evidentiary endeavor.”
Lake’s legal team relied on testimony of two whistleblowers who worked in the first of a three-level signature verification process for Maricopa County. While the former election workers expressed concerns over whether the process was being done correctly, both testified to doing their jobs diligently, throwing a blanket over Lake’s claim that the process didn’t exist. . . .
Lake’s attorneys zeroed in on the number 70,000, which they say represents the number of ballots on which signatures were verified in less than two seconds. That should be impossible, they claim. But testimony from Ray Valenzuela, Maricopa County’s elections director, poked holes in their mathematical assertions. And even if the number were accurate, Thompson said it still wouldn’t sufficient to support the assertion that no verification was done. . . .
The numbers Lake’s case hinged on were compiled by expert witness Erich Speckin, a self-purported forensic document analyst and handwriting expert. . . .
Ultimately, Thompson found no “clear and convincing evidence” of any misconduct — or lack of conduct — that altered the outcome of the 2022 election. . . .
It’s unclear at this time if Lake will appeal the decision.
https://www.courthousenews.com/kari-lake-loses-election-challenge/
SSI - word on street is that Leon's latest cutie pie politico will run for US Senate in 2024.
As for possibility of being tagged as Trump's running mate in 2024 - PROVIDED that #45 actually secures his own GOP nomination for POTUS - think it is NOT likely.
Why? Because the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo does NOT like losers. EXCEPT for himself, of course!
"A time will come when politicians can tell voters that Brexit was a turkey of an idea, that it makes Britain poorer, that it doesn’t even work as an immigration-cutting retreat from the world. That time isn’t far off. But it isn’t now. Not quite."
Starmer must wait before breaking the Brexit omertà
Voters know they made a mistake. That doesn’t mean they are ready to be told so
https://www.ft.com/content/def7d504-c68e-4682-a237-192334e07034
Here's a thing and it's a real life thing so you'll like it. During the US presence in Afghanistan one of the statistics compiled (these days the US armed forces are basically big data with big guns) was GDP. This led to some bafflement when despite a rising GDP, satisfaction with the occupation fell. They eventually worked out that they should have been measuring gross/net household income or similar. GDP measures the performance of the country, but household income or similar measures the performance of the people.
It all depends on whether you think the state should service the country (an abstract concept) or the people (a concrete concept).
edit: fixed wrong acronym, apologies.
When the withdrawal agreement and FTA come up for renewal, perhaps EU and UK car manufacturers will want to permanently loosen rules of origin for EVs. But that's not what's happening now.