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The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    JACK_W said:

    Tories lose 16 seats as Yellow Peril take Windsor.

    King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ... :smiley:

    Well Margaret Thatcher once remarked: “The problem is the Queen is the kind of woman who could vote Social Democratic.”
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    .

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    Fans of the big two often deride votes as mere protest votes. I am often tempted and occassionally do vote Green as a protest vote and think it at least as worthy as a vote for the big two, even though I believe in little of their actual manifesto.
    I find it hard to believe that anyone could look at the Conservatives over the past few years, contrast them with the Greens, and conclude that the Conservatives are the “serious party” with a consistent message while the Greens are the flip-floppy ones. What short memories people have…
    I think the people who obsess over manifestos are choosing inevitable disappointment. At least those of us who vote tactically, occassionally get the outcome we wanted.
  • Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    Fans of the big two often deride votes as mere protest votes. I am often tempted and occassionally do vote Green as a protest vote and think it at least as worthy as a vote for the big two, even though I believe in little of their actual manifesto.
    I'm a Green Party member, done a tiny bit of activity for them. I vote Green every time now, even though as you, I don't agree with swathes of their manifesto. I can understand tactical voting, but never consider my vote wasted or as a protest vote. It's democracy init!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    JACK_W said:

    Tories lose 16 seats as Yellow Peril take Windsor.

    King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ... :smiley:

    Well Margaret Thatcher once remarked: “The problem is the Queen is the kind of woman who could vote Social Democratic.”
    The Queen also once remarked: "The problem is Margaret Thatcher."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far

    The nicest thing you can say about Sunak is that he isn’t as shit as Truss or Johnson.

    Which is a pretty low bar.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    Depends on starting points if you are going to make comparisons like that. The losses of 95 for example, did they occur after the losses of 2019? Judge on Low hanging and harder to reach fruit for example, not just numbers.

    If Starmer gets to 347 MPs he will have won more than Blair in 97
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Not sure why some Tories are so surprised. After years of slashing the public sector, indulging in NIMBYism, supporting only one demographic in the electorate (pensioners), the debacle of Johnson, Truss and the party being dominated by rabid Mogg-esque ERGers, this is where we are. Shock. Horror.

    They can’t even “stop the boats” because they’ve totally trashed the immigration system. Probably best not to promise things like that when you don’t have the basic services in place to support policy
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Chris said:

    On the stepmom index this is pretty bad for the Tories.

    Time to bring back Truss or Johnson.

    Truss and Johnson. And Uncle Tom Kwarteng and all.
    A little bit unnecessary at the end there. I see what you were trying to do with Tom Cobley but there are other interpretations involving Harriet Beecher Stowe that may not be looked at as charitably. I’d amend if you can.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Amusing that the king's senior spinner is now briefing that Charles wanted nothing to do with the 'loyalty oath'.
    Casino please explain.

    In that case I assume it was the Archbishop of Canterbury but Charles is King and he should have vetoed it

    It is simply ridiculous in these modern times

    The age of subjication is long over
    Charles had been intimately involved in the arrangements for the last decade or so.
    Slightly dishonest to spin it's nothing to do with him.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Amusing that the king's senior spinner is now briefing that Charles wanted nothing to do with the 'loyalty oath'.
    Casino please explain.

    In that case I assume it was the Archbishop of Canterbury but Charles is King and he should have vetoed it

    It is simply ridiculous in these modern times

    The age of subjication is long over
    Charles had been intimately involved in the arrangements for the last decade or so.
    Slightly dishonest to spin it's nothing to do with him.
    Can we not blame Meghan? If not, surely Starmer was involved somehow?
  • Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Amusing that the king's senior spinner is now briefing that Charles wanted nothing to do with the 'loyalty oath'.
    Casino please explain.

    It was explained on here yesterday by @Ghedebrav I think.

    Press releases and media statements changed a very subtle invitation to anyone else who wanted to join in within the order of service to something that it wasn't.

    Of course, it will be too late for that to have any resonance now. Once the meme is out it is out.
    Spinning like a Dimbleby.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far

    The nicest thing you can say about Sunak is that he isn’t as shit as Truss or Johnson.

    Which is a pretty low bar.
    With his local election campaign, Sunak says "hold my beer!"*

    * actually probably Coke, being a self confessed Coke addict.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    Well if you carry on at that rate, you will inevitably come to an election where there are no losses... because no seats to lose.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    Before all the excitement started, there were a couple of success criteria being bandied about.

    Labour needed to be 10 points ahead on NEV to be in a good position for the General Election.

    Conservatives needed to lose 1000 seats before people could point and laugh about a Terrible Night For The Tories. (Not that people should point and laugh really. Good councillors, doing well for their patch, will have been kicked out last night for wearing the wrong rosette. It's nature's way, but not nice, whoever's involved.)

    From what we've seen so far, is there a fair chance that both those boxes will be ticked?

    Looks like both measures to be met but there's a prospect of a shedload of Tory losses to the Lib Dems in the seats still to be declared, mostly in the South of England. Lib Dems are back could be the message of the day.
    The Lib Dem performance is (I hope) a fascinating omen of what could happen at the GE due to the nature of FPTP.

    The Lib Dem vote share looks like it’s stayed almost at a standstill, while the conservatives vote has declined a little. But huge numbers of seats are falling to the Lib Dems. This is the sight of the dam break in areas where the yellows came second in the last election. All it takes is a few points of Tory decline and they clean up across large swathes of the country.
    With most councils still to count it remains early in the process. But what is a very clear and unambiguous trend so far is that people are largely voting against the Tories.

    In some places that means Labour. In others LibDem. In others Green. Look at the councils where the Tories have lost them to NOC. They are not going to remain in power as a strong minority backed by the odd independent. They are out - Lab/LD/Green comfortably beats them.

    Yes the Tories still have pockets of strength. But so did the Wermacht in March 1945.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    To state the obvious, it has clearly been a very bad night for the Conservatives, though given the collapse in living standards over the last year, the Truss premiership, Sunak's lack of charisma or vision and the fact they've mostly run out of other people to blame after 13 years in power, perhaps it's surprising it hasn't been even worse.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Heathener said:

    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.

    And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far

    The nicest thing you can say about Sunak is that he isn’t as shit as Truss or Johnson.

    Which is a pretty low bar.
    With his local election campaign, Sunak says "hold my beer!"*

    * actually probably Coke, being a self confessed Coke addict.
    Is he?

    Amazing he didn't have space for Kwarteng in his cabinet, really.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Chris said:

    On the stepmom index this is pretty bad for the Tories.

    Time to bring back Truss or Johnson.

    Truss and Johnson. And Uncle Tom Kwarteng and all.
    This is the missing ingredient for Starmer at the moment. The Tories have seemed reasonably united recently and I think that’s been enough to creep back in the polls. A return to internal squabbling and briefings would be great news for LLG.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    edited May 2023
    In non-local election news, India is going to have to find another source of payment for all that oil it is buying:

    “Moscow feels rupee accumulation is 'not desirable' […] The rupee is not fully convertible”

    Or, it can keep paying with rupees.

    Or stop buying Russian oil at a discount to world prices. Looks like they have you over a barrel, Putin.

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1654168074411552768
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far

    The nicest thing you can say about Sunak is that he isn’t as shit as Truss or Johnson.

    Which is a pretty low bar.
    With his local election campaign, Sunak says "hold my beer!"*

    * actually probably Coke, being a self confessed Coke addict.
    Is he?

    Amazing he didn't have space for Kwarteng in his cabinet, really.
    Yes, here he confesses on camera...

    https://youtu.be/nO_fXajyzek
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 2023
    Mortimer said:



    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Yes I totally agree.

    One reason why I think they're going to fare even worse at the GE (and said so yesterday) is that Sunak is fading. He has literally nothing.

    During the GE campaign he will be found wanting. He not only doesn't like being put under pressure with awkward questions, he also has a fair bit of murkiness in his locker. Either way, he is empty. A manager, but devoid of political charisma.

    Again, I'm not saying Starmer is brilliant but the bar is a low one to beat.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
  • Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Is that what they said?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Foxy said:

    JACK_W said:

    Tories lose 16 seats as Yellow Peril take Windsor.

    King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ... :smiley:

    Did the King use a coin as photo ID when voting for the Lib Dem Focus Team?
    He reportedly wanted to join the Labour group at University. Not sure which side convinced him "No...just, no...."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    Before all the excitement started, there were a couple of success criteria being bandied about.

    Labour needed to be 10 points ahead on NEV to be in a good position for the General Election.

    Conservatives needed to lose 1000 seats before people could point and laugh about a Terrible Night For The Tories. (Not that people should point and laugh really. Good councillors, doing well for their patch, will have been kicked out last night for wearing the wrong rosette. It's nature's way, but not nice, whoever's involved.)

    From what we've seen so far, is there a fair chance that both those boxes will be ticked?

    Looks like both measures to be met but there's a prospect of a shedload of Tory losses to the Lib Dems in the seats still to be declared, mostly in the South of England. Lib Dems are back could be the message of the day.
    The Lib Dem performance is (I hope) a fascinating omen of what could happen at the GE due to the nature of FPTP.

    The Lib Dem vote share looks like it’s stayed almost at a standstill, while the conservatives vote has declined a little. But huge numbers of seats are falling to the Lib Dems. This is the sight of the dam break in areas where the yellows came second in the last election. All it takes is a few points of Tory decline and they clean up across large swathes of the country.
    I don't know about huge swathes.
    As @rcs1000 has pointed out before, beyond a score or so of seats, the swing (or tactical vote) required is quite large.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    Depends on starting points if you are going to make comparisons like that. The losses of 95 for example, did they occur after the losses of 2019? Judge on Low hanging and harder to reach fruit for example, not just numbers.

    If Starmer gets to 347 MPs he will have won more than Blair in 97
    In terms of Labour lead over the Conservatives, this looks the worst Conservative result since 1997, but not as bad as the results from 1993-97. In terms of vote share, it's the worst Conservative result since 2013 (which was also a bad year for Labour).

    The Conservatives' big losses in 1995 came after big losses in 1991, but the Conservatives had performed well in the local elections of 1983 and 1987 (all part of the same cycle).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Sean_F said:

    .

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    Fans of the big two often deride votes as mere protest votes. I am often tempted and occassionally do vote Green as a protest vote and think it at least as worthy as a vote for the big two, even though I believe in little of their actual manifesto.
    I find it hard to believe that anyone could look at the Conservatives over the past few years, contrast them with the Greens, and conclude that the Conservatives are the “serious party” with a consistent message while the Greens are the flip-floppy ones. What short memories people have…
    The Greens have a consistent message. It's just an unpleasant one.
    I'd vote Labour before I voted Green.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    Again, like the Lib Dems!

    Greens should always be something of a coalition though, and green issues cut across the political spectrum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    JACK_W said:

    Tories lose 16 seats as Yellow Peril take Windsor.

    King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ... :smiley:

    They are busy filling the crown jewels with yellow diamonds?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Are you planning to be recycled for the next election?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
    Exactly. This is where I have been for some time. A small Labour majority (20-50 seats) seems the most likely outcome. These results firm up that prediction in my mind but don't change it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It would be hard to read the big vote for indpendents into general election results.

    The Lib Dems are doing well, but still not really close to their performance pre-2010, let alone in the 1990's..
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,421
    edited May 2023

    Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Is that what they said?
    They were well over subscribed for what they needed in the wards around me. I could have gone on a national list i think, but to be fair, I did apply really late in the process. Next time I'll get in early.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Amusing that the king's senior spinner is now briefing that Charles wanted nothing to do with the 'loyalty oath'.
    Casino please explain.

    It was explained on here yesterday by @Ghedebrav I think.

    Press releases and media statements changed a very subtle invitation to anyone else who wanted to join in within the order of service to something that it wasn't.

    Of course, it will be too late for that to have any resonance now. Once the meme is out it is out.
    Spinning like a Dimbleby.
    Er, no. It's the facts.

    Don't be a dickhead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
    I am no fan of Starmer, but he clearly doesn't frighten the horses. Despite his lack of political experience his strategy so far has produced the results that Labour needed.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.

    I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Ghedebrav said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    Again, like the Lib Dems!

    Greens should always be something of a coalition though, and green issues cut across the political spectrum.
    We're a broad mosque in the Greens. We'll entertain anybody but chavs (rightly so).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
    In the quiet moments of today, just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Tories with PM Truss still in Downing Street, still waging her war with Mr Market....
    With Truss having struggled on as PM for seven months, the results would have been at least as bad as 1995, probably worse.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Are you planning to be recycled for the next election?
    Perhaps there might be a seat along the A4 corridor they are struggling to fill?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    dixiedean said:

    Wary of a narrative before most votes are counted, but.
    Seems the chances of a Labour majority haven't changed much.
    The chances of the Tories retaining power have receded.

    Feels like a fair assessment IMHO.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.

    And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
    A period of silence from you would be welcome.

    We are all tired of your hyberbolic bullshit and you seem to have absolutely no shame in totally changing your tune on here this morning as the results come in.

    What you should have done is admitted you got it wrong. But you don't have the integrity to do that it seems.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Breaking:

    John Curtice says local election results are ‘unambiguously bad’ for Tories and they could lose 1,000 seats

    ‘The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly’

    Their vote share is down on May 2019 so far

    It's been a terrible night for the Conservatives......
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
    In the quiet moments of today, just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Tories with PM Truss still in Downing Street, still waging her war with Mr Market....
    Electoral results would have been the least of our concerns …
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    A number of analyses so far showing differential performance of the parties by demographics. This time Brexit

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1654349653742108675?s=46

    It suggests the LLG vote is becoming much more efficient. Labour advancing most in the marginal red wall and Essex/Kent seats, Tories going backwards most in the remain areas where Lib Dems are strongest.

    An unwind of the two FPTP trends that boosted Cameron and his successors looks in the offing: Labour’s collapse in Scotland, and the Lib Dems’ 2015 post coalition collapse in the South and SW.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Are you planning to be recycled for the next election?
    I'd call it upcycling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Icarus said:

    At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!

    Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
    Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
    Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.

    But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
    No, I think the Greens are not yet looking at a national election, and do not want to be that sort of centralised national party.

    They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
    I put myself up as a paper candidate for them this year, but they didn't need me🤡
    Are you planning to be recycled for the next election?
    Perhaps there might be a seat along the A4 corridor they are struggling to fill?
    That's just a lot of wind.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
    In the quiet moments of today, just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Tories with PM Truss still in Downing Street, still waging her war with Mr Market....
    I try to but I can't imagine any circumstances in which Truss is still PM. The political and economic trajectory of her administration was so precipitous, there is no plausible scenario where she would have made it to now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Neither @SkyNews nor @BBCPolitics
    are reflecting just how seismic the result in Plymouth was. Tories just one seat of 19. Labour had 15 wins, best result since 1995, before Tony Blair became PM!

    https://twitter.com/CouncillorTudor/status/1654343437347442688
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.

    Yes, by way of comparison, Labour had a dreadful set of local election results in 1967-69, 1976-79, and 2006-09, but still recovered to a respectable defeat in each subsequent general election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    Depends on starting points if you are going to make comparisons like that. The losses of 95 for example, did they occur after the losses of 2019? Judge on Low hanging and harder to reach fruit for example, not just numbers.

    If Starmer gets to 347 MPs he will have won more than Blair in 97
    In terms of Labour lead over the Conservatives, this looks the worst Conservative result since 1997, but not as bad as the results from 1993-97. In terms of vote share, it's the worst Conservative result since 2013 (which was also a bad year for Labour).

    The Conservatives' big losses in 1995 came after big losses in 1991, but the Conservatives had performed well in the local elections of 1983 and 1987 (all part of the same cycle).
    The Conservatives tend to do very badly during/in the aftermath of an economic bust when house prices fall, and taxes go up, and there's a squeeze on the cost of living.

    That's exactly what's happened here.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.

    These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited May 2023
    I apologise to Brexiteers, I was wrong and they were right about Brexit leading to a chain reaction of other countries wanting to take back control from their unelected rulers.

    King dealt Commonwealth blow as two nations threaten to cut ties

    Jamaica and Belize hint at dropping the monarch as head of state, with the latter claiming it could hold referendum as early as 2024


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/05/04/king-charles-commonwealth-jamaica-belize-vote-cut-ties/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989

    JACK_W said:

    Tories lose 16 seats as Yellow Peril take Windsor.

    King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ... :smiley:

    They are busy filling the crown jewels with yellow diamonds?
    Funny thing about the yellow diamond: it’s arguably one of the if not the strongest most recognisable brands in electoral politics, way ahead of the popularity of the party.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    TimS said:

    A number of analyses so far showing differential performance of the parties by demographics. This time Brexit

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1654349653742108675?s=46

    It suggests the LLG vote is becoming much more efficient. Labour advancing most in the marginal red wall and Essex/Kent seats, Tories going backwards most in the remain areas where Lib Dems are strongest.

    An unwind of the two FPTP trends that boosted Cameron and his successors looks in the offing: Labour’s collapse in Scotland, and the Lib Dems’ 2015 post coalition collapse in the South and SW.

    Interesting to see if the anti Tory vote also helps Labour further vs SNP in Scotland as we get closer to the election and the Westminster govt becomes more likely to be Labour than Tory. I suspect it will.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Greg Hands - who is like a generic Tory MP created by ChatGPT - doing a plausible Comical Ali impression this morning.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Lets go with this. The Times also reporting that the Tory right are planning to make a move. So if we now have a summer of discontent, where it is clear that the Sunak ship is sinking and deportation to political Rwanda is on the horizon, what do political giants like Jonathan Gullis do to save their seats?

    It's Boris isn't it? The "cut taxes" it catastrofucked the economy, so they can't go for Truss or followers of Truss. There isn't really anyone with umph on the right / populist wing standing out as leadership material. I'd quite like to see a Tory party led by Badenoch but fat chance.

    Which leaves Boris. "Cleared" by the forthcoming report as being only guilty of being stupid (as nobody explicitly told him not to party and he didn't know it was wrong). The arch populist who will say literally anything to be liked. The man who the vox pops from wavering red wall seats want back (see the Sky piece from Stockton earlier this week).

    When it happens, remember that I called it on here ages ago. Resurrecting Boris would be mad, bad and dangerous for Britain. But when you are desperate, mad and bad sound better than unemployed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    The anti-Tory party is back. That’s the takeaway.

    I’ve been saying on here for ages that the key polling number is Labour+LibDem+Green. The results so far explain why.

    Less than 20 months to go. Good riddance to them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.

    These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
    Thatcher regularly won Langbaurgh which is South Middlesbrough
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 218
    I wonder who David Starkey voted for.

    GBnews a bit of a problem for the Tories long term as it keeps radicalising the members.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Nigelb said:

    Neither @SkyNews nor @BBCPolitics
    are reflecting just how seismic the result in Plymouth was. Tories just one seat of 19. Labour had 15 wins, best result since 1995, before Tony Blair became PM!

    https://twitter.com/CouncillorTudor/status/1654343437347442688

    It’s the trees (or absence of) what won it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Nigelb said:

    Neither @SkyNews nor @BBCPolitics
    are reflecting just how seismic the result in Plymouth was. Tories just one seat of 19. Labour had 15 wins, best result since 1995, before Tony Blair became PM!

    https://twitter.com/CouncillorTudor/status/1654343437347442688

    Local events, dear boy. You cut down our trees, we cut down your Councillors....

    Serves the sods right. Even if there was a case for doing so, the high-handed "we know best" attitude deserves being slapped down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.

    And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
    A period of silence from you would be welcome.

    We are all tired of your hyberbolic bullshit and you seem to have absolutely no shame in totally changing your tune on here this morning as the results come in.

    What you should have done is admitted you got it wrong. But you don't have the integrity to do that it seems.
    On the contrary, @Heathener is right and it is the Tory reckoning predicted.

    As the 2019 Local elections occurred in the year of Brexit paralysis, with the LDs pushing "Bollocks to Brexit", I did wonder if we may have seen high tide. It seems though that even more of Remania is moving our way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.

    These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
    Thatcher regularly won Langbaurgh which is South Middlesbrough
    Is that the Yorkshire bit?
  • I'm confused (leave it!). Tories on here seem to not actually like the party, or the people in charge. Who do you actually want in charge?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Anyhoo




  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
    Building "some goddam homes" is a manifesto commitment, not something government can do before the next election.

    Looking back, it's probably something government should have started during the pandemic (rather than, say, Eat out to help out) in order to boost the economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2023

    I apologise to Brexiteers, I was wrong and they were right about Brexit leading to a chain reaction of other countries wanting to take back control from their unelected rulers.

    King dealt Commonwealth blow as two nations threaten to cut ties

    Jamaica and Belize hint at dropping the monarch as head of state, with the latter claiming it could hold referendum as early as 2024


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/05/04/king-charles-commonwealth-jamaica-belize-vote-cut-ties/

    2 countries out of 15 Commonwealth Realms.

    By contrast most former Commonwealth Realms became Republics or got their own head of state between 1945 and 2000 ie well before Brexit
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.

    These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
    Thatcher regularly won Langbaurgh which is South Middlesbrough
    Is that the Yorkshire bit?
    The greatest Tory PM is Ted Heath for rightly taking the Smoggies out of Yorkshire.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pioneers, if they did ditch Sunak and re-install Boris Johnson then I might well end up voting Labour. I definitely wouldn't be voting Conservative.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    I'm confused (leave it!). Tories on here seem to not actually like the party, or the people in charge. Who do you actually want in charge?

    Thatcher, Cameron, and Osborne.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,662

    The anti-Tory party is back. That’s the takeaway.

    I’ve been saying on here for ages that the key polling number is Labour+LibDem+Green. The results so far explain why.

    Less than 20 months to go. Good riddance to them.
    On the doorstep it was all about how do we get the buggers out. They have to go.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.

    Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.

    Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.

    Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.

    Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.

    Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
    In the quiet moments of today, just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Tories with PM Truss still in Downing Street, still waging her war with Mr Market....
    I try to but I can't imagine any circumstances in which Truss is still PM. The political and economic trajectory of her administration was so precipitous, there is no plausible scenario where she would have made it to now.
    One thing I miss though is her PMQ performances. It was so refreshing to hear answers to the questions, rather than the evasion, bluster and playground insults of Sunak and Johnson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
    In 97 the UK was a confident country on the up, economically and culturally - Blair’s message of optimistic change and progression couldn’t have found more fertile territory.

    We’re a way off that now. Depressed, divided and uncertain. I don’t really get the parallels we here often try to draw. It’ll be GE2024, not a rerun of 97 or 92 or whatever.
    At the moment it looks more 2010 in reverse than 1997 with Starmer more Cameron or Wilson 1964 than Blair 1997
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,662

    I'm confused (leave it!). Tories on here seem to not actually like the party, or the people in charge. Who do you actually want in charge?

    Thatcher, Cameron, and Osborne.
    I reflected this morning that all the work that Cameron and Osborne did to shed the Tories of their nasty party image, look modern and be trusted enough to govern has been systematically thrown away since 2019.

    Right now the Tories look nasty, out of touch and incompetent. It's a bad cocktail.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    The anti-Tory party is back. That’s the takeaway.

    I’ve been saying on here for ages that the key polling number is Labour+LibDem+Green. The results so far explain why.

    Less than 20 months to go. Good riddance to them.
    I think that is the general feeling now.

    Sunak is much better than the two monstrosities that preceded him, but there is a limit to how far you can change the line up to clean off the bad smell.

    I just think they’ve run out of road, as all governments do in the end. In truth I think the Truss disaster was the thing that ended it for them, and there was no real way back for them at that point absent a Labour self-immolation.

    But a note of some caution: locals are different to GEs and I suspect there’ll be a number of voters who have sat on their hands this time who would still hold their nose and vote Tory in a GE. Retaining power is pretty much unthinkable right now, but the scale of the loss (and whether Labour get an overall majority) is still to be fully decided.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    Will we see Liz Truss on election night channelling her inner Thatcher and saying: "You see, I never lost a general election"?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?

    But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
    It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.

    These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
    Likely. Though status quo ante is not a result for decaying hellholes like Middlesbrough - they need rescuing. The Tories promised these red wall rust belt towns the moon on a stick. Brexit and the Oven Ready Deal would see their lives improve, put a bit more money in their pockets and see pride come back into their communities.

    And then the reverse has happened. So understandably ever larger numbers of people want the Tories out. They aren't stupid, they don't like being lied to. But then again Labour who had presided over some of these places since the Danelaw had let them go to ruin beforehand. "Its all the Tories fault, vote Labour" is no longer going to work.

    Starmer's challenge is to actually turn some of these places around. Deliver actual levelling up projects. And investment is available - an ocean of public cash spent on Teesside, its just that it's all being handed over to a small number of the right people and not the town. Boro was refused tens of millions because the council wanted the money to be accountable and the mayor said it could only go to his no scrutiny cash in brown envelope operation...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Looks like I might have undercooked it for LAB in my forecast made yesterday of a 7% lead in the Projected National Equivalent voteshare.

    Long way to go though!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    What's going on in Serbia ?

    Serbia: eight killed in second mass shooting in days, with attacker on the run
    Police searching for attacker who fired automatic weapon from a moving vehicle in town south of Belgrade, injuring a further 13
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/05/serbia-eight-killed-in-second-mass-shooting-in-days-with-attacker-on-the-run
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    The latest from Professor Thrasher

    The Conservatives have lost a third of their council seats so far – a hammering by any standard. If that trend continues the party is likely to post a final tally that rivals the debacle of 1995 that left them limping towards a massacre at the general election two years later.

    I just switched on the radio and it seems your overnight Tory optimism was misplaced. We are apparently looking at results worst than anyone rxpeced. So it's looks like it's back to the psephological drawing board....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,605
    Does anyone have the NEVs ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
    500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.

    Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
    How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
    OK in a few areas like North Norfolk

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000147
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.

    And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
    A period of silence from you would be welcome.

    We are all tired of your hyberbolic bullshit and you seem to have absolutely no shame in totally changing your tune on here this morning as the results come in.

    What you should have done is admitted you got it wrong. But you don't have the integrity to do that it seems.
    On the contrary, @Heathener is right and it is the Tory reckoning predicted.

    As the 2019 Local elections occurred in the year of Brexit paralysis, with the LDs pushing "Bollocks to Brexit", I did wonder if we may have seen high tide. It seems though that even more of Remania is moving our way.
    No, I don't think so. There's nothing in these results to imply that the Conservatives will do worse than in 1997, which is what she was predicting for a long time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.

    Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.

    And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
    A period of silence from you would be welcome.

    We are all tired of your hyberbolic bullshit and you seem to have absolutely no shame in totally changing your tune on here this morning as the results come in.

    What you should have done is admitted you got it wrong. But you don't have the integrity to do that it seems.
    On the contrary, @Heathener is right and it is the Tory reckoning predicted.

    As the 2019 Local elections occurred in the year of Brexit paralysis, with the LDs pushing "Bollocks to Brexit", I did wonder if we may have seen high tide. It seems though that even more of Remania is moving our way.
    On the contrary, @Heathener is totally wrong. He/she has been saying a total extinction/wipeout/landslide is coming with 30% leads and all sorts of crap.

    Don't encourage his/her hyperbolic spin just because you perceive someone to be on your side and the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Otherwise I will extend my perception of lack of integrity to you too.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    edited May 2023

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pioneers, if they did ditch Sunak and re-install Boris Johnson then I might well end up voting Labour. I definitely wouldn't be voting Conservative.

    You might not! And it would be *mental*. But if the ship is sinking, rats start attacking other rats...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    JACK_W said:

    I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.

    I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!

    JACK'S BACK!

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh.
    Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.

    I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
    It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.

    A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
    The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.

    That's the difference.

    Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
    In 97 the UK was a confident country on the up, economically and culturally - Blair’s message of optimistic change and progression couldn’t have found more fertile territory.

    We’re a way off that now. Depressed, divided and uncertain. I don’t really get the parallels we here often try to draw. It’ll be GE2024, not a rerun of 97 or 92 or whatever.
    Yes, and that is a real challenge for any government. Economic and social optimism is at its lowest since the late Seventies, and no North Sea Oil bonanza to fund a solution.

    We are the new Argentina, only with fewer football trophies.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Would results so far give some encouragement to those who would like a Labour led government needing LD support?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    JACK_W said:

    I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.

    I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!

    Given that the Conservatives are only defending one ward in St Albans Council, ie Harpenden South, are you expecting that ward to turn yellow as well?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Nigelb said:

    Neither @SkyNews nor @BBCPolitics
    are reflecting just how seismic the result in Plymouth was. Tories just one seat of 19. Labour had 15 wins, best result since 1995, before Tony Blair became PM!

    https://twitter.com/CouncillorTudor/status/1654343437347442688

    Felling conservatives like they felled trees in an extraordinary example of vandalism

    They got everything they deserved and good riddance
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