It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
We do not have a free trade deal with the EU. The hit to GDP is because we have imposed a one-way barrier on trade. UK companies have had to offshore back into the EU to maintain any kind of cost-effective presence there, and a stack of EU business no longer sells to GB.
Our deal was predicated on having checks on both sides of the border. We abandoned our bit because we're grossly incompetent, yet have left the deal in place one-sided.
Anyone who wasn't an ideologue would look at that and say "that's ridiculously unfair". It is massively harming to our economy without any reciprocity the other way. So why don't we?
When Brexiteers railed against foreign powers and foreign courts they very specifically meant the EU. They have just signed a deal to let foreign companies sue the UK government in foreign courts. That is OK apparently. Which means the argument isn't sovereignty at all, its just with the EU.
So its nationalism. Our culture war against France and Germany. What else can it be? And we've essentially surrendered. France is already better than we are and we're receding off below them. Top job guys.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
No, its not about the EU, it is simply an irrelevance, not even a rounding error on our future prosperity.
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.
You seriously suggest HMG should not pursue trade deals around the world
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
We do want to trade freely with the EU. Unfortunately that is not the limit of what the EU want. If it had been we would never have left.
My experience as a Financial Adviser ( Chartered) For 20 plus years , is that younger people up until the forties believe the state pension is not of any particular value and so its proposed deferral is an issue they will deal with in the future. It's only when people get past mid fifties they realise what an important part of the future income that the state pension represents, Hence unless the Government takes a benefit that has already budgeted for the likely response is resignation , Its only when it's likely to impact those who have budgeted for ( perhaps the WASPI 's ) that you get organised resistance.
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
But surely it means a certain loss of our Soveriegnity, Big G?
The CPTPP is a trading organisation of individual countries who agree their terms of trade but without any political alignment
Specifically, being in CPTPP doesn't stop us doing our own trade deals with anyone else, right?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
Yes and no. Clearly it's not a move towards becoming a single country with Canada, Japan etc. It does however close off a number of options in how we conduct trade, making it effectivrely impossible for a future elected government to deviate without huge disruption. If one thinks that maximum free trade is unequivocally good, even if it means importing goods made in ways that would be illegal in Britain, then no problem. If not, then it's a trade-off which has democratic downsides.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
With not much on Services, but free trade in manufactured goods it may well be a better deal for consumers wanting cheap goods than our exporters. Look forward to more fast fashion.
Wasn't a Brexit bonus, more domestic manufacturing and less foreign ****? And today by PB Brexiteers we are being sold the notion that we will eventually have access to all the Chinese **** our hearts desire.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
We do not have a free trade deal with the EU. The hit to GDP is because we have imposed a one-way barrier on trade. UK companies have had to offshore back into the EU to maintain any kind of cost-effective presence there, and a stack of EU business no longer sells to GB.
Our deal was predicated on having checks on both sides of the border. We abandoned our bit because we're grossly incompetent, yet have left the deal in place one-sided.
Anyone who wasn't an ideologue would look at that and say "that's ridiculously unfair". It is massively harming to our economy without any reciprocity the other way. So why don't we?
When Brexiteers railed against foreign powers and foreign courts they very specifically meant the EU. They have just signed a deal to let foreign companies sue the UK government in foreign courts. That is OK apparently. Which means the argument isn't sovereignty at all, its just with the EU.
So its nationalism. Our culture war against France and Germany. What else can it be? And we've essentially surrendered. France is already better than we are and we're receding off below them. Top job guys.
We no have a deal with growing Asian and Pacific markets as well as the EU.
We also have a points system for immigration rather than free movement from both
My experience as a Financial Adviser ( Chartered) For 20 plus years , is that younger people up until the forties believe the state pension is not of any particular value and so its proposed deferral is an issue they will deal with in the future. It's only when people get past mid fifties they realise what an important part of the future income that the state pension represents, Hence unless the Government takes a benefit that has already budgeted for the likely response is resignation , Its only when it's likely to impact those who have budgeted for ( perhaps the WASPI 's ) that you get organised resistance.
I'm in my early 40s and don't expect to ever get a state pension. They brought in workplace pensions for a reason.
With Trump, this surely is Good News for his campaign. For his supporters this is more evidence that government is corrupt and needs Trump to cleanse it. The allegations don't matter as they are all false, what matters is that someone has to stand up for their values over the government, and that man is Trump.
Remember the claim - "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". Likely true. And the same is true with this.
As someone noted on twitter re. shooting someone on 5th Av, yeah, but you’d be even more certain to be indicted.
I’m trying to remember the name of the Saki story where someone is on trial for blowing up a public building. He freely admits his guilt and openly plans his next bombing in court. But the government is desperate to lose the case because of political effects.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
No, its not about the EU, it is simply an irrelevance, not even a rounding error on our future prosperity.
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.
You seriously suggest HMG should not pursue trade deals around the world
Its a view but not one most would recognise
Err, I have not said that, I said it is extremely low priority and importance, nothing to get excitied about. It is not significant in our future either way. Possibly worth doing at the margins but largely symbolic and for domestic political reasons to reassure the likes of yourself.
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
Because Theresa May was a Remainer who thought she had to look tough to Leavers.
And because Cameron didn't allow us a vote on the EEA as well as the EU.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
Not all trade deals are equal though. For example, the UK-EU trade deal is less useful to the UK economy than being in the Single Market and Customs Union was. Perhaps more ideologically congenial (especially if you don't think you need the money) but not as economically useful.
My experience as a Financial Adviser ( Chartered) For 20 plus years , is that younger people up until the forties believe the state pension is not of any particular value and so its proposed deferral is an issue they will deal with in the future. It's only when people get past mid fifties they realise what an important part of the future income that the state pension represents, Hence unless the Government takes a benefit that has already budgeted for the likely response is resignation , Its only when it's likely to impact those who have budgeted for ( perhaps the WASPI 's ) that you get organised resistance.
I'm in my early 40s and don't expect to ever get a state pension. They brought in workplace pensions for a reason.
It will be mostly means tested. There will (probably) still be some universal pension element but most of the resources will have to go to the equivalent of pension credit.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before. The CPTPP is a basically a huge question mark of creating industries where none previously existed and treasury modelling is worse than useless for it. It's the same modelling that drives us to not bother investing in having an EV industry because we don't already have one.
Where no existing trade occurs these models say it will never exist and that's why in 10 years this 0.08% forecast is going to be hilariously wrong.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
We do not have a free trade deal with the EU. The hit to GDP is because we have imposed a one-way barrier on trade. UK companies have had to offshore back into the EU to maintain any kind of cost-effective presence there, and a stack of EU business no longer sells to GB.
Our deal was predicated on having checks on both sides of the border. We abandoned our bit because we're grossly incompetent, yet have left the deal in place one-sided.
Anyone who wasn't an ideologue would look at that and say "that's ridiculously unfair". It is massively harming to our economy without any reciprocity the other way. So why don't we?
When Brexiteers railed against foreign powers and foreign courts they very specifically meant the EU. They have just signed a deal to let foreign companies sue the UK government in foreign courts. That is OK apparently. Which means the argument isn't sovereignty at all, its just with the EU.
So its nationalism. Our culture war against France and Germany. What else can it be? And we've essentially surrendered. France is already better than we are and we're receding off below them. Top job guys.
France is currently in a real mess. The "experst" giving us forecasts have so far downplayed the UKs prospects and bigged up France and Germany. The UK will avoid a recession while Germany is currently on track to have one. God knows what will happen in France - when you cant buy diesel in country where 80% of cars are diesel its not a good outlook for the economy.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Most Americans think this is politically motivated (62%), but most Americans also think this should preclude Trump from running again (57%) Those two stats together are quite something. Means at least 19% of Americans think a politically motivated indictement should preclude someone from running for office....
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
I would be happy to have a Norway style deal with the EU but it is fair to say that both Sunak and Starmer actively want a closer relationship with the EU and this has been seen over the WF and of course Sunak and Macron's desire to develop the EPC
CPTPP is separate to this discussion and should be welcomed as a sensible move towards the hugely important future Indo-Pacific markets
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
Becasue there are several trade options and we can pick what suits us best.Being now in a new bloc may actually work to our benefit as the EU no longer thinks we have nowhere else to go.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
With not much on Services, but free trade in manufactured goods it may well be a better deal for consumers wanting cheap goods than our exporters. Look forward to more fast fashion.
Wasn't a Brexit bonus, more domestic manufacturing and less foreign ****?
No. It has almost certainly fncked our car industry, for example.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Most Americans think this is politically motivated (62%), but most Americans also think this should preclude Trump from running again (57%) Those two stats together are quite something. Means at least 19% of Americans think a politically motivated indictement should preclude someone from running for office....
The poll question was whether the charges are “mainly motivated by politics”, so you can believe that there is some validity to them, but that they’re mainly driven by politics. I guess.
@NickPalmer to answer your question, if I thought we had a leader who was fantastically competent, but also corrupt, I’d swallow my bile and back that leader.
Trump, fortunately, does not create such a dilemma, as he is incompetent as well as venial.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
Yes and no. Clearly it's not a move towards becoming a single country with Canada, Japan etc. It does however close off a number of options in how we conduct trade, making it effectivrely impossible for a future elected government to deviate without huge disruption. If one thinks that maximum free trade is unequivocally good, even if it means importing goods made in ways that would be illegal in Britain, then no problem. If not, then it's a trade-off which has democratic downsides.
Morning Nick
I dont think maximum free trade is is unequivocally good. I believe in free trade but not to the point were were stupid about it.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
But surely it means a certain loss of our Soveriegnity, Big G?
The CPTPP is a trading organisation of individual countries who agree their terms of trade but without any political alignment
Not strictly true; even if we don't consider the softer exercise of power through the forum there are for instance restrictions on what can be done with state-owned enterprises; and the ability to take member governments to court. Yes, these are the things that are most obviously "trade adjacent". But 4-5 years since its founding, we all know that is the start of the long and winding road. Let's see what happens when China's application is forced into serious consideration. What are the constraints that are going to be imposed by those who don't want them in? They will undoubtedly be more self-evidently political.
And yes, it is likely that these "political" things will be better aligned to the "it's just trade" worldview than the EU's historically Franco-German statism - such that you are able to call them non-political, because you (perhaps perversely?) consider "trade" non-political. I might prefer that flavour too (though I'm suspicious of anything which aligns with US law - it's still too French in spirit for my liking #joke)
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before. The CPTPP is a basically a huge question mark of creating industries where none previously existed and treasury modelling is worse than useless for it. It's the same modelling that drives us to not bother investing in having an EV industry because we don't already have one.
Where no existing trade occurs these models say it will never exist and that's why in 10 years this 0.08% forecast is going to be hilariously wrong.
Thank goodness that 'our' ardent leavers are strangers to groupthink.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Most Americans think this is politically motivated (62%), but most Americans also think this should preclude Trump from running again (57%) Those two stats together are quite something. Means at least 19% of Americans think a politically motivated indictement should preclude someone from running for office....
The poll question was whether the charges are “mainly motivated by politics”, so you can believe that there is some validity to them, but that they’re mainly driven by politics. I guess.
Of course they're motivated by politics. That doesn't mean they aren't valid - that'll be up to the jury that hears the evidence to decide. Oh, a jury. Jury selection is going to be fun, isn't it?
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
Report of newly released (but dated 7-10.3) @PanelbaseMD polling of #indyref2 vi, plus Westminster and Holyrood. election voting is at https://bit.ly/3ouYAz0
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
I very much doubt the Chinese would accept the IP conditions of the CPTPP, given how much they gain from nicking everybody else's tech.
Taiwan is a much more likely candidate, and China would probably drop its application if Taiwan were admitted.
With Trump, this surely is Good News for his campaign. For his supporters this is more evidence that government is corrupt and needs Trump to cleanse it. The allegations don't matter as they are all false, what matters is that someone has to stand up for their values over the government, and that man is Trump.
Remember the claim - "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". Likely true. And the same is true with this.
As someone noted on twitter re. shooting someone on 5th Av, yeah, but you’d be even more certain to be indicted.
I’m trying to remember the name of the Saki story where someone is on trial for blowing up a public building. He freely admits his guilt and openly plans his next bombing in court. But the government is desperate to lose the case because of political effects.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before. The CPTPP is a basically a huge question mark of creating industries where none previously existed and treasury modelling is worse than useless for it. It's the same modelling that drives us to not bother investing in having an EV industry because we don't already have one.
Where no existing trade occurs these models say it will never exist and that's why in 10 years this 0.08% forecast is going to be hilariously wrong.
Probably will be wrong! Forecasts are always wrong, that's why they are a forecast. My question is how wrong. A factor of 10 means CPTPP is worth 0.8% in 10 years. So they need to be out by a factor of 100 to deliver 4% in 5 years and thus replace today's Brexit loss (which will be more than 4% by the time we get there as it grows all the time).
The OBR will be wrong with this forecast. But they won't be that wrong. Not 100x wrong.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
Like electric vehicles, for example ? This doesn't help with that. Much of that growth is in manufacturing, where we're decidedly weak. As you usually agree.
Don't get me wrong, I welcome the deal, but I don't think its significance is all that great.
Report of newly released (but dated 7-10.3) @PanelbaseMD polling of #indyref2 vi, plus Westminster and Holyrood. election voting is at https://bit.ly/3ouYAz0
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
We do not have a free trade deal with the EU. The hit to GDP is because we have imposed a one-way barrier on trade. UK companies have had to offshore back into the EU to maintain any kind of cost-effective presence there, and a stack of EU business no longer sells to GB.
Our deal was predicated on having checks on both sides of the border. We abandoned our bit because we're grossly incompetent, yet have left the deal in place one-sided.
Anyone who wasn't an ideologue would look at that and say "that's ridiculously unfair". It is massively harming to our economy without any reciprocity the other way. So why don't we?
When Brexiteers railed against foreign powers and foreign courts they very specifically meant the EU. They have just signed a deal to let foreign companies sue the UK government in foreign courts. That is OK apparently. Which means the argument isn't sovereignty at all, its just with the EU.
So its nationalism. Our culture war against France and Germany. What else can it be? And we've essentially surrendered. France is already better than we are and we're receding off below them. Top job guys.
France is currently in a real mess. The "experst" giving us forecasts have so far downplayed the UKs prospects and bigged up France and Germany. The UK will avoid a recession while Germany is currently on track to have one. God knows what will happen in France - when you cant buy diesel in country where 80% of cars are diesel its not a good outlook for the economy.
France is joyously French. When they have a mess they have a proper mess. Setting fire to city hall protesting about a proposed pension change nothing to do with the city authorities is very French.
But they remain a bigger economy, better services, longer life-expectancy. And we're continually shagging ours to make that gap bigger. I have a real problem with the French professionally at the moment, so don't think me an advocate for the bastards. But you can't argue with adding. And the numbers are clear.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does.
So much the better, we could have provided that innovation and thus become the dominant player in the EU.
Terrible news management by the government over CPTPP. This was supposed to be the crowning pinnacle of Brexit, but it's been reduced to a hollow mockery by the 0.08% figure. That's all anyone is talking about. Rishi must be fuming with Badenoch in the way she's allowed the OBR to whizz on his parade. And surely any future leadership ambitions she had are now in tatters.
Report of newly released (but dated 7-10.3) @PanelbaseMD polling of #indyref2 vi, plus Westminster and Holyrood. election voting is at https://bit.ly/3ouYAz0
Are you sure that house price deflation is optimal with elements of the economy reliant on drawing down house value equity?
And avoiding a technical recession is somewhat meaningless with food price inflation at circa 15%.
It is never ever optimal for house prices to rise, fall, or stay the same. That's one of the rules of the media and public discourse.
Whereas, under the same rules, it is generally optimal for interest rates to fall but sub-optimal for them to rise.
Another rule is that it is generally optimal for popular groups of workers (midwives, nurses; doctors used to be on the list but I think they have been disqualified) to receive large pay increases but forbidden to mention any group, whether popular or unpopular whose pay falls relatively in comparison with them.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Can we please all stop with this tedious false dichotomy?
The choice is CPTPP vs not-CPTPP, not CPTPP vs EU.
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
I would be happy to have a Norway style deal with the EU but it is fair to say that both Sunak and Starmer actively want a closer relationship with the EU and this has been seen over the WF and of course Sunak and Macron's desire to develop the EPC
CPTPP is separate to this discussion and should be welcomed as a sensible move towards the hugely important future Indo-Pacific markets
The Good Thing about CPTPP is that it is compatible with free trade within the EEA. As our standards are EEA standards - we wrote most of them - and those standards are not incompatible with CPTPP standards, we have an opportunity to bridge the world with free trade.
But that only works if we regain free trade with the EEA. Otherwise we have given up something big and replaced it with something small. Yes the small thing will grow. But 0.08% needs to grow a lot before it is 4%. And the 4% hit to our economy continues to grow...
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning.
It is amusing to read. They can't decide whether it's a complete waste of time or an outrageous infringement on our sovereignty similar to the EU.
Just as they couldn't decide whether the Brexit vote was an outrageous act of fascism by lunatics and neo-Nazis or a justifiable cry of despair from the marginalised after years of austerity.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Can you tell me about the dispute mechanism process for the CPTPP?
We complain about the UK being a gerontocracy, but the French out-geront everyone. Massive state pensions paid fir by massive taxes on the working age population.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning.
It is amusing to read. They can't decide whether it's a complete waste of time or an outrageous infringement on our sovereignty similar to the EU.
Just as they couldn't decide whether the Brexit vote was an outrageous act of fascism by lunatics and neo-Nazis or a justifiable cry of despair from the marginalised after years of austerity.
I find it very easy to decide that you're talking bollocks.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
I very much doubt the Chinese would accept the IP conditions of the CPTPP, given how much they gain from nicking everybody else's tech.
Taiwan is a much more likely candidate, and China would probably drop its application if Taiwan were admitted.
As the French have taught us (but we repeatedly fail to learn) you can sign up to any conditions you have no intention of respecting.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Can we please all stop with this tedious false dichotomy?
The choice is CPTPP vs not-CPTPP, not CPTPP vs EU.
Not entirely. We could easily reduce trade barriers with the EU without rejoining it.
But yes, of course, to a tiny extent, verging on negligible, given that we've already damaged the economy so badly through Brexit, CPTPP might give a small improvement over non-CPTPP. So it's a good thing, sure. Just not a big deal, and possibly complicating efforts to make much bigger improvements in trade with our neighbours.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
Terrible news management by the government over CPTPP. This was supposed to be the crowning pinnacle of Brexit, but it's been reduced to a hollow mockery by the 0.08% figure. That's all anyone is talking about. Rishi must be fuming with Badenoch in the way she's allowed the OBR to whizz on his parade. And surely any future leadership ambitions she had are now in tatters.
The numbers were always there, but the appetite for Brexit Good News is much lower than before and the appetite for Bad News is much higher. It's a variant on the old "the teacher appears when the pupil is ready" adage.
All politicians ride public opinion much more than they shape it. The dangerous ones (Johnson for example) know that and lean into it.
We complain about the UK being a gerontocracy, but the French out-geront everyone. Massive state pensions paid fir by massive taxes on the working age population.
Yes, and the weird thing is that it's the working-age population who are ripping up the paving stones and setting fire to town halls. You do have to wonder who they think is paying for these pensions.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Can you tell me about the dispute mechanism process for the CPTPP?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
This gives me the opportunity to raise again one of my favourite clerihews. After the 1997 general election, someone at the Telegraph - probably Craig Brown - wrote a series of clerihews for the prominent Tory MPs who had lost their seats. One which sticks in the memory is:
Sir Nicholas Bonsor By God, he gone sir! Not to worry because I was never entirely certain which one he was.
Now that we are in the CPTPP, why can the EU join? I'm not sure whether French Polynesia, New Caledonia and Wallis & Futuna are sufficiently within the EU to count?
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
We shall see. The one thing this issue does do is to remind everyone what a sleazy shit Trump is - quite how evangelical christians can support him is beyond me.
It also depends on how it plays out from here. If the type of gun-toting loonies that tried to invade Congress on Jan 6 start acting up, attacking Justice buildings & personnel then that will repel all but the Trump fanatics.
As all judges are political elected and appointed in the US it is very easy to claim that any prosecution of a politician is "politically motivated". That should not provide a let out for any political that thinks they are above the law.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
I don't think what's left of the UK car industry would be too pleased with the consequences of tariff free imports from the Chinese megacorps like SAIC, Geely, etc. You'd be able to buy a Trumpchi GS8 for buttons.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Does it do that much, or is it yet another Ulster Brake that turns out not to be attached to anything?
Deep Brapprochment will mean taking a decision, but but that's some way off. And any country can walk out of CPTPP by giving six months' notice.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
Why does it do that? Sure, if we were to rejoin we'd have to give it up, but that wasn't a problem in the 70s.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and which will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
No, its not about the EU, it is simply an irrelevance, not even a rounding error on our future prosperity.
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.
Bit like finding a penny when you are a pound short for a cup of coffee
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
The EEA is not. Why are we not members of the EEA like other non-EU states are? Why are we at the very least in a free trade relationship with the EEA?
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
I would be happy to have a Norway style deal with the EU but it is fair to say that both Sunak and Starmer actively want a closer relationship with the EU and this has been seen over the WF and of course Sunak and Macron's desire to develop the EPC
CPTPP is separate to this discussion and should be welcomed as a sensible move towards the hugely important future Indo-Pacific markets
The Good Thing about CPTPP is that it is compatible with free trade within the EEA. As our standards are EEA standards - we wrote most of them - and those standards are not incompatible with CPTPP standards, we have an opportunity to bridge the world with free trade.
But that only works if we regain free trade with the EEA. Otherwise we have given up something big and replaced it with something small. Yes the small thing will grow. But 0.08% needs to grow a lot before it is 4%. And the 4% hit to our economy continues to grow...
I don't think we disagree too much on this neither do I expect Sunak or Starmer
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
You’re missing the point:
The NY DA is a fervent Democrat
He wants to rile up Trump and the GOP base but not take him off the board
So you choose a minor case like this…
Yes, having partisan politicallly affiliated elected prosecutors is a bad idea. This guy campaigned on finding sh!t on Trump, it’s not a good way to do things, and may have the opposite effect of emboldening Trump’s supporters.
I agree that prosecutors should not be elected but the MAGA's make exactly the same attacks on the GOP lawmakers that are going for him in Georgia.
It is what it is so given the situation that exists do you believe that politicians should not be able to be prosecuted by someone who is elected from another party?
At the end of the day it's all the usual MAGA smokescreen, the facts of the case will come out eventually and I am sure that Trump will have the best legal team to win if there is no truth in the indictment.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
No, its not about the EU, it is simply an irrelevance, not even a rounding error on our future prosperity.
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.
Bit like finding a penny when you are a pound short for a cup of coffee
Although if you can't afford the coffee you won't need to spend a penny.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
I don't think what's left of the UK car industry would be too pleased with the consequences of tariff free imports from the Chinese megacorps like SAIC, Geely, etc. You'd be able to buy a Trumpchi GS8 for buttons.
We can already buy Chinese-made MGs for buttons. If the west allows China free reign then it will happily supply us *everything*. So TikTok has been declared spyware. Not that big a deal. But what if the laptop I am working on was also found to be Chinese spyware? My router? My keyboard? My car?
The UK has given up on making cars. The big manufacturers in Europe won't because they are either privately owned or state backed. But they still need to compete, and even the most patriotic consumers will struggle to justify buying a domestic Stellantis vehicle which is way more expensive and not as high tech as the cheap Chinese import.
And yet "we may get free trade with China!!!" seems to be one of the positive spin lines about CPTPP. Be careful what you wish for.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
Remind me again who was first off the mark with the development of an effective and innovative Covid vaccine?
A reminder that there is one constant feature of recent UK economic statistics.
Economic growth is almost always better than the initial estimates suggest. Between 1976-80, and 1985-90, the economy grew at almost double the rate that initial estimates had suggested. The loss of output from peak to trough, in 2008-09, was -4.5%, and not -7% as originally thought, and the "triple dip recession" of 2012 never happened.
Business investment numbers up to 2021 have recently been sharply revised upwards, which will impact on the GDP numbers.
One of our current projects involves Vietnamese supply to a Hungarian customer so the best thing from my perspective would be for the CPTTPP and EU to merge. One currency and interest rates across the world would work well too - though doubtless the city boys who make a living from currency trading wouldn't be happy. Back in the real/likely possible world, joining the CPTTPP whilst undoubtedly a positive for our business doesn't replace losing EU membership.
One of our current projects involves Vietnamese supply to a Hungarian customer so the best thing from my perspective would be for the CPTTPP and EU to merge. One currency and interest rates across the world would work well too - though doubtless the city boys who make a living from currency trading wouldn't be happy.
One currency and interest rate which covered both Vietnam and Hungary sounds, er, risky! It's caused enough problems to do that with economies as different as Greece and Germany.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
Remind me again who was first off the mark with the development of a new and innovative Covid vaccine?
And it's Belgium that supplies S Korea and Taiwan with the highest tech lithography machines. And Italy, Tesla's 5000t machine presses.
While it's true that Europe is somewhat sclerotic (as is the UK), it has some very real strengths in modern manufacturing. Rather more than does the UK.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
Yes and no. Clearly it's not a move towards becoming a single country with Canada, Japan etc. It does however close off a number of options in how we conduct trade, making it effectivrely impossible for a future elected government to deviate without huge disruption. If one thinks that maximum free trade is unequivocally good, even if it means importing goods made in ways that would be illegal in Britain, then no problem. If not, then it's a trade-off which has democratic downsides.
While in the EU we had to import goods made in ways which would be illegal in britain. Think foie gras
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Is not the most significant aspect of joining the CPTTPP that it gives the U.K. a veto over the future accession of China? Would the U.K. accept their membership if both the US and EU were opposed?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
Think big
EU joins the CPTPP - why not?
There is no major incompatibility between their trading standards!
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
It's in the spirit of Brexit itself - a decision that in 250 years or so might look smart if you crane your neck and squint.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Can we please all stop with this tedious false dichotomy?
The choice is CPTPP vs not-CPTPP, not CPTPP vs EU.
It was the Brexiters who went on about having new trade deals independent of the EU.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
Remind me again who was first off the mark with the development of an effective and innovative Covid vaccine?
A large share of the most innovative businesses come out of Europe - not just in life sciences but tech and fintech, food science (that mammoth meatball was from a Dutch company), agricultural technology, automotive and even public sector - look at Estonia's electronic citizenship.
Where Europe (including the UK) isn't successful is in throwing the billions of VC and then scale up capital at those innovations to turn them into global monopolistic giants, like the Americans can.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
Think big
EU joins the CPTPP - why not?
There is no major incompatibility between their trading standards!
Or the CPTPP members join the EU. Thinking even bigger there.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
Remind me again who was first off the mark with the development of an effective and innovative Covid vaccine?
Comments
Our deal was predicated on having checks on both sides of the border. We abandoned our bit because we're grossly incompetent, yet have left the deal in place one-sided.
Anyone who wasn't an ideologue would look at that and say "that's ridiculously unfair". It is massively harming to our economy without any reciprocity the other way. So why don't we?
When Brexiteers railed against foreign powers and foreign courts they very specifically meant the EU. They have just signed a deal to let foreign companies sue the UK government in foreign courts. That is OK apparently. Which means the argument isn't sovereignty at all, its just with the EU.
So its nationalism. Our culture war against France and Germany. What else can it be? And we've essentially surrendered. France is already better than we are and we're receding off below them. Top job guys.
Its a view but not one most would recognise
And don't say "foreign laws". We just signed over a load of power to foreign laws with CPTPP.
We also have a points system for immigration rather than free movement from both
I was headhunted by Deutsche Bank.
And because Cameron didn't allow us a vote on the EEA as well as the EU.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65135405
Recession avoided in 2022 though
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65128313
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before. The CPTPP is a basically a huge question mark of creating industries where none previously existed and treasury modelling is worse than useless for it. It's the same modelling that drives us to not bother investing in having an EV industry because we don't already have one.
Where no existing trade occurs these models say it will never exist and that's why in 10 years this 0.08% forecast is going to be hilariously wrong.
outlook for the economy.
Those two stats together are quite something. Means at least 19% of Americans think a politically motivated indictement should preclude someone from running for office....
CPTPP is separate to this discussion and should be welcomed as a sensible move towards the hugely important future Indo-Pacific markets
I wonder which is the world’s filthiest bank. Many of them seem to compete for that title.
But that remains to be seen.
And avoiding a technical recession is somewhat meaningless with food price inflation at circa 15%.
It has almost certainly fncked our car industry, for example.
Trump, fortunately, does not create such a dilemma, as he is incompetent as well as venial.
I dont think maximum free trade is is unequivocally good. I believe in free trade but not to the point were were stupid about it.
And yes, it is likely that these "political" things will be better aligned to the "it's just trade" worldview than the EU's historically Franco-German statism - such that you are able to call them non-political, because you (perhaps perversely?) consider "trade" non-political. I might prefer that flavour too (though I'm suspicious of anything which aligns with US law - it's still too French in spirit for my liking #joke)
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1641718082593869824?s=20
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 40% (-5)
Labour 33% (+5)
Conservatives 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
Seats projection (current boundaries, changes measured from 2019 result): SNP 35 (-13), Labour 17 (+16), Liberal Democrats 4 (-), Conservatives 3 (-3)
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-panelbase-poll_30.html?m=1
Taiwan is a much more likely candidate, and China would probably drop its application if Taiwan were admitted.
The OBR will be wrong with this forecast. But they won't be that wrong. Not 100x wrong.
This doesn't help with that.
Much of that growth is in manufacturing, where we're decidedly weak. As you usually agree.
Don't get me wrong, I welcome the deal, but I don't think its significance is all that great.
But they remain a bigger economy, better services, longer life-expectancy. And we're continually shagging ours to make that gap bigger. I have a real problem with the French professionally at the moment, so don't think me an advocate for the bastards. But you can't argue with adding. And the numbers are clear.
This makes a Lab OM much more likely.
Lucky General, Starmer.
Whereas, under the same rules, it is generally optimal for interest rates to fall but sub-optimal for them to rise.
Another rule is that it is generally optimal for popular groups of workers (midwives, nurses; doctors used to be on the list but I think they have been disqualified) to receive large pay increases but forbidden to mention any group, whether popular or unpopular whose pay falls relatively in comparison with them.
The choice is CPTPP vs not-CPTPP, not CPTPP vs EU.
But that only works if we regain free trade with the EEA. Otherwise we have given up something big and replaced it with something small. Yes the small thing will grow. But 0.08% needs to grow a lot before it is 4%. And the 4% hit to our economy continues to grow...
Just as they couldn't decide whether the Brexit vote was an outrageous act of fascism by lunatics and neo-Nazis or a justifiable cry of despair from the marginalised after years of austerity.
https://globalarbitrationreview.com/review/the-asia-pacific-arbitration-review/2023/article/dispute-settlement-mechanisms-under-the-cptpp-and-the-rcep
It's certainly more balanced than that for the EU - but obviously there's also a lot less at stake.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
But yes, of course, to a tiny extent, verging on negligible, given that we've already damaged the economy so badly through Brexit, CPTPP might give a small improvement over non-CPTPP. So it's a good thing, sure. Just not a big deal, and possibly complicating efforts to make much bigger improvements in trade with our neighbours.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
All politicians ride public opinion much more than they shape it. The dangerous ones (Johnson for example) know that and lean into it.
For 0.08% of trade.
But, ignore the idle wonderings of a remainer, musing idly to no particular conclusion on the costs / benefits of different trade arrangements.
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2023/03/30/sir-nicholas-bonsor-eurosceptic-mp-death-obituary/
This gives me the opportunity to raise again one of my favourite clerihews. After the 1997 general election, someone at the Telegraph - probably Craig Brown - wrote a series of clerihews for the prominent Tory MPs who had lost their seats. One which sticks in the memory is:
Sir Nicholas Bonsor
By God, he gone sir!
Not to worry because
I was never entirely certain which one he was.
It also depends on how it plays out from here. If the type of gun-toting loonies that tried to invade Congress on Jan 6 start acting up, attacking Justice buildings & personnel then that will repel all but the Trump fanatics.
As all judges are political elected and appointed in the US it is very easy to claim that any prosecution of a politician is "politically motivated". That should not provide a let out for any political that thinks they are above the law.
Deep Brapprochment will mean taking a decision, but but that's some way off. And any country can walk out of CPTPP by giving six months' notice.
It is what it is so given the situation that exists do you believe that politicians should not be able to be prosecuted by someone who is elected from another party?
At the end of the day it's all the usual MAGA smokescreen, the facts of the case will come out eventually and I am sure that Trump will have the best legal team to win if there is no truth in the indictment.
The UK has given up on making cars. The big manufacturers in Europe won't because they are either privately owned or state backed. But they still need to compete, and even the most patriotic consumers will struggle to justify buying a domestic Stellantis vehicle which is way more expensive and not as high tech as the cheap Chinese import.
And yet "we may get free trade with China!!!" seems to be one of the positive spin lines about CPTPP. Be careful what you wish for.
Economic growth is almost always better than the initial estimates suggest. Between 1976-80, and 1985-90, the economy grew at almost double the rate that initial estimates had suggested. The loss of output from peak to trough, in 2008-09, was -4.5%, and not -7% as originally thought, and the "triple dip recession" of 2012 never happened.
Business investment numbers up to 2021 have recently been sharply revised upwards, which will impact on the GDP numbers.
One currency and interest rates across the world would work well too - though doubtless the city boys who make a living from currency trading wouldn't be happy.
Back in the real/likely possible world, joining the CPTTPP whilst undoubtedly a positive for our business doesn't replace losing EU membership.
And Italy, Tesla's 5000t machine presses.
While it's true that Europe is somewhat sclerotic (as is the UK), it has some very real strengths in modern manufacturing.
Rather more than does the UK.
EU joins the CPTPP - why not?
Where Europe (including the UK) isn't successful is in throwing the billions of VC and then scale up capital at those innovations to turn them into global monopolistic giants, like the Americans can.