People want cake. But the population is more aware of the trade offs now than before the referendum. I expect a large proportion of the 60% are perfectly aware that rejoining means free movement. As for the single market, that was always seen overwhelmingly as a positive, even by many brexiteers.
No the Tony Blair institute thingy did polling on this, and even Remainers were overall opposed to free movement.
70% of people think we should have a closer relationship with the EU, but only a third of peole want to be in the Single Market. So really despite Rejoin polling, what most people mean by Rejoin is probably not the EEA or EU, but something less than that.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
The revealing thing about the CPTPP is that the second 'P' stands for Pacific, an ocean that every member country apart from the UK borders. It is also worth pointing out that the two largest Pacific economies are not members of the CPTPP, which further limits its usefulness to us. Membership is a nice thing to have but it is an order of magnitude less useful to us than being in the EU, as is obvious to anyone with a passing knowledge of global trade or maths.
Report of newly released (but dated 7-10.3) @PanelbaseMD polling of #indyref2 vi, plus Westminster and Holyrood. election voting is at https://bit.ly/3ouYAz0
So the SNP were starting to go down the pan whilst Stugeon was at the helm. Now they have someone useless at the wheel,we are likely talking crossover this year. Nothing would please me more than to see a substantial Labour majority in Scotland if only to.preserve the Union
Ms Sturgeon had made her resignation klnown well before that.
Resigned 15th Feb not surprising effect seen a few weeks later.
But you were speaking as if she was fully in control for the foreseeable future. Which she was not at the time of polling.
She was at the helm until the 29th iirc.
But everyone knew she was on her way out. That's the point. So the starting point you invoke didn't exist - things were already changed.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
We did do it, of course, but then had to hand everything back.
Ah yes. When we ruled the waves. Simpler times and alas not coming back.
Then we stamped out the Atlantic Slave Trade. Nowadays we can't stamp out the cross-channel people trade.
To be fair a lot of stamping out the alantic slave trade involved shooting at boats, not being the greek navy we can't get away with that nowadays
I am reminded on the book of letters I found in an old second hand book shop near the British Museum.
They were between a very young RN midshipman and his sisters. It had been put together as a memorial after his death, I think. He was on an anti-slavery patrol and the slavers fired on the small boat he was commanding. The book ended with a copper plate handwriting letter from his Captain, and one from the senior hand in the boat.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
The revealing thing about the CPTPP is that the second 'P' stands for Pacific, an ocean that every member country apart from the UK borders. It is also worth pointing out that the two largest Pacific economies are not members of the CPTPP, which further limits its usefulness to us. Membership is a nice thing to have but it is an order of magnitude less useful to us than being in the EU, as is obvious to anyone with a passing knowledge of global trade or maths.
Being slightly pedantic the UK has Pacific territories in the Pitcairn Islands.
Also, the pacific is really really big, so many of the existing members are not close to each other. The UK is about the same average distance from CPTPP members as existing members are from each other.
The sour grapes over CPTPP here today could start a vinegar factory.
Not reading any sour grapes. Haven't we all said its worth doing?
I was just on a conference call with the DBT - the new dept made of bits of BEIS and DIT - covering CPTPP as well as updates on other negotiations (they do regular sessions updating industry panels on progress).
Perfectly decent agreement and good news so long as it doesn’t inhibit future integration with the EU, which it shouldn’t do. But even they were quick to emphasise the limited nature of the benefits. It’s a nice to have. And largely important for geopolitical and soft power reasons, which shouldn’t be underestimated.
That sounds about right. The civil servants are always happy to talk about the reality even if the politicians who run the department are not. Stuff like "just incorporate in the EU to keep trading" was openly part of Department for International Trade presentations. The politicians insisted it wasn't true and their lies were happily parroted, and yet there it was on the slides.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Deltapoll this week was 42/41 to rejoin
The 60% was from Omnisis yesterday
The old story of homing in on the poll you like
Generous of you to provide an example of that behaviour.
You mean like the Nits using subsamples....
HYUFD is a nationalist?
(But then he is. And so are you, going on about saving the union.)
I am not a nationalist in the sense you suggest. I believe in the Union. If anything I am anti individual nationalism.
The Nits in the form of Stuart Dickson.. have been using subsamples for years to try and make points.
It's all nationalism. And nationalism always comes in layers - small units, larger units etc.
We've got Socts Nationalists, British Nationalist, EU nationalists, Welsh Nationalists, NATO nationalists etc on here. Also the occasional Russian Nationalist (until @rcs1000 wields the hammer)
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
We did do it, of course, but then had to hand everything back.
Ah yes. When we ruled the waves. Simpler times and alas not coming back.
Then we stamped out the Atlantic Slave Trade. Nowadays we can't stamp out the cross-channel people trade.
To be fair a lot of stamping out the alantic slave trade involved shooting at boats, not being the greek navy we can't get away with that nowadays
I am reminded on the book of letters I found in an old second hand book shop near the British Museum.
They were between a very young RN midshipman and his sisters. It had been put together as a memorial after his death, I think. He was on an anti-slavery patrol and the slavers fired on the small boat he was commanding. The book ended with a copper plate handwriting letter from his Captain, and one from the senior hand in the boat.
Quite. A lot of them also died from disease - 'Beware the Bight of Benin' and all that.
They did get head money for the poor people they liberated, which was a definite change from the wartime prize money sales of cargo from enemy ships!
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Depends what you do with the Don't Knows, of course...
4/ #Brexit sentiment appears to have stabilised, with little significant movement this week:
Right. So 49% said they want to rejoin, not 60%. You could perhaps net off the DKs and claim that Rejoin would win a referendum tomorrow by 60-40, but you can't claim that 60% "want to rejoin" because you're including in that 11% who explicitly don't know if they want to rejoin.
True enough, Driver, but these are just different ways of saying the same thing.
A lot of people who thought Brexit was a good idea are now not so sure. Who'd have thunk it?
The latest poll from PeoplePolling has the conservatives on 24%, which is their highest equal rating for this polling company since the special fiscal event in September last year.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
The revealing thing about the CPTPP is that the second 'P' stands for Pacific, an ocean that every member country apart from the UK borders. It is also worth pointing out that the two largest Pacific economies are not members of the CPTPP, which further limits its usefulness to us. Membership is a nice thing to have but it is an order of magnitude less useful to us than being in the EU, as is obvious to anyone with a passing knowledge of global trade or maths.
Yes, but CPTPP also has fewer costs and fewer threats to us. The EU has considerable potential benefits, but also considerable potential costs. Leave won, because the benefits weren't seen to outweigh the costs. (And that remains my personal view). With CPTPP, my perception is that the benefits of membership outweigh the costs.
It's not EU or CPTPP. It's two separate yes/no decisions.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Deltapoll this week was 42/41 to rejoin
The 60% was from Omnisis yesterday
The old story of homing in on the poll you like
Generous of you to provide an example of that behaviour.
You mean like the Nits using subsamples....
HYUFD is a nationalist?
(But then he is. And so are you, going on about saving the union.)
I am not a nationalist in the sense you suggest. I believe in the Union. If anything I am anti individual nationalism.
The Nits in the form of Stuart Dickson.. have been using subsamples for years to try and make points.
It's all nationalism. And nationalism always comes in layers - small units, larger units etc.
We've got Socts Nationalists, British Nationalist, EU nationalists, Welsh Nationalists, NATO nationalists etc on here. Also the occasional Russian Nationalist (until @rcs1000 wields the hammer)
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Depends what you do with the Don't Knows, of course...
4/ #Brexit sentiment appears to have stabilised, with little significant movement this week:
Right. So 49% said they want to rejoin, not 60%. You could perhaps net off the DKs and claim that Rejoin would win a referendum tomorrow by 60-40, but you can't claim that 60% "want to rejoin" because you're including in that 11% who explicitly don't know if they want to rejoin.
True enouth, Driver, but these are just different ways of saying the same thing.
A lot of people who thought Brexit was a good idea are now not so sure. Who'd have thunk it?
Obvious this was going to happen. A flaw with referenda. If we rejoined, polls would appear showing a majority for a 2nd exit. And so on.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
We did do it, of course, but then had to hand everything back.
Ah yes. When we ruled the waves. Simpler times and alas not coming back.
Then we stamped out the Atlantic Slave Trade. Nowadays we can't stamp out the cross-channel people trade.
To be fair a lot of stamping out the alantic slave trade involved shooting at boats, not being the greek navy we can't get away with that nowadays
I am reminded on the book of letters I found in an old second hand book shop near the British Museum.
They were between a very young RN midshipman and his sisters. It had been put together as a memorial after his death, I think. He was on an anti-slavery patrol and the slavers fired on the small boat he was commanding. The book ended with a copper plate handwriting letter from his Captain, and one from the senior hand in the boat.
Quite. A lot of them also died from disease - 'Beware the Bight of Benin' and all that.
They did get head money for the poor people they liberated, which was a definite change from the wartime prize money sales of cargo from enemy ships!
I recall some people here were a bit shocked by what was in the last letter (from the boat crew) - he'd been a popular officer. So when he was killed, they gave no quarter when they boarded the slaver.
The head money meant that the best and brightest of the RN headed there after the Napoleonic wars were over. And were very, very keen on the job.
The other thing that was a surprise was what they did when it was found that slavers were buying back the captured slave ships at auction. The RN destroyed the ships and paid the prize money out of Navy funds. Given the parsimony with government money at the time, that was a sign of how strongly the policy was supported.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Deltapoll this week was 42/41 to rejoin
The 60% was from Omnisis yesterday
The old story of homing in on the poll you like
Generous of you to provide an example of that behaviour.
You mean like the Nits using subsamples....
HYUFD is a nationalist?
(But then he is. And so are you, going on about saving the union.)
I am not a nationalist in the sense you suggest. I believe in the Union. If anything I am anti individual nationalism.
The Nits in the form of Stuart Dickson.. have been using subsamples for years to try and make points.
It's all nationalism. And nationalism always comes in layers - small units, larger units etc.
We've got Socts Nationalists, British Nationalist, EU nationalists, Welsh Nationalists, NATO nationalists etc on here. Also the occasional Russian Nationalist (until @rcs1000 wields the hammer)
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Depends what you do with the Don't Knows, of course...
4/ #Brexit sentiment appears to have stabilised, with little significant movement this week:
Right. So 49% said they want to rejoin, not 60%. You could perhaps net off the DKs and claim that Rejoin would win a referendum tomorrow by 60-40, but you can't claim that 60% "want to rejoin" because you're including in that 11% who explicitly don't know if they want to rejoin.
True enough, Driver, but these are just different ways of saying the same thing.
Not really. In the same way that I think it's important to look at the plus and minus figures on leadership ratings, not just the net, I also think it's important to include the DKs in referendum question polling. Excluding them loses you information. 49-32 is not the same as 57-38, even though both net out to 60-40.
Or, looking at the other poll, 42-41 is not the same as 48-47.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
I'm sure you're right about Vietnam (particularly as you've been there and I haven't), but even medium-long term what will be the tangible/measurable effect on the UK? In other words how will that dynamism transfer to the raddled old UK (or 'shithole' as one PBer recently described it)?
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
I'm supportive of joining CPTPP. You want to make the most of the opportunities you have available to you, even if if those opportunities have been severely reduced by Brexit. So why not join CPTPP at least for the time being?
CPTPP seems to tick some boxes: large trading area; some growth; mostly countries we approve of. But is there more to it than that?
The big downside apparently is that it'll make rejoining the EU much more difficult. I cant remember why. I just found the whole thing so depressing
If the UK decides later to sensibly reintegrate with the EU in some form, and if membership of CPTPP blocks that move, CPTPP will be dropped without hesitation. I am sure of that.
It would. Unless we somehow transcend geography and move thousands of miles to somewhere more exotic. But this seems unlikely. If it were possible I think we'd have already done it. We've been pretty much stuck where we are for a long long time.
We did do it, of course, but then had to hand everything back.
Ah yes. When we ruled the waves. Simpler times and alas not coming back.
Then we stamped out the Atlantic Slave Trade. Nowadays we can't stamp out the cross-channel people trade.
Having started it. Or at least profiting more from it than anyone else.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Remember too that Rejoiners does not include the likes of me who voted Remain and thought Brexit was a dumb idea but believe we now have to just learn to live with it, and rejoining would do little more than make us look silly.
Is not the most significant aspect of joining the CPTTPP that it gives the U.K. a veto over the future accession of China? Would the U.K. accept their membership if both the US and EU were opposed?
A UK veto is redundant in that situation because Japan would be vetoing already.
Good point, does that mean it’s misleading to suggest that the deal is potentially worth more than 0.08% on GDP because China will join in the future?
The premise for my response was that the US was opposed. I think the current environment is that they would be opposed, and Japan would say no. Long-term nobody knows what China will be like, but if I'd run a simulation on the assumption that China would join then I'd definitely also want to run one on the assumption that China wouldn't join.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
One interesting reaction to the CPTPP news I've seen from some hardcore Remainers is sheer disbelief because in their mental model, Britain had become an outcast that nobody wanted to have anything to do with.
It's biggest impact on sentiment might be simply puncturing the irrational negativity on which some people's views are based.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular PARTLY because it is confused with the 2019-2023 period as a lived experience. Which even the most ardent Brexiteer would grant has some drawbacks. I support Brexit, but of course I'd very happily go back to a time when we were in the EU if it could stop covid and the Ukraine invasion happening. But only absolute nutters blame Brexit for those.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Because the surveys are generally not the full picture. Asking 'Rejoin, yes or no' is not what would be the reality. The EU isn't going to let us back in under the same terms we left. It would be see the UK with no rebate, paying more in, and reduced voting rights. Now people may still opt for that, but thats not what they are polling on.
In which case those in charge should be charged with treason. They have dragged the country into an extremely damaging situation without even an exit route. Generals have faced firing squads for less.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Then politicians need to start explaining that "reversing it", in the sense of reverting to the previous terms of membership", is not going to be on the table.
Leave being undefined in 2016 proved to be a major problem in the following three years - that error can't be repeated in reverse.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I think we agreed beforehand that the rule of thumb in referenda is that the status quo normally wins. Leave had an uphill battle. It also had a fairly unusual set of circumstances in its favour with, amongst other things, Corbyn being LOTO.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
The benefit is going to be cultural, it will force British companies to compete in Asia. That alone is worth the price of entry. I love Europe, it's a great place to visit and live, it isn't, however, particularly dynamic and as we see across the whole continent (including the UK) entitlement culture has taken over. Europeans seem to believe we are owed a living.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
Doubt it, the way UK life expectation is going. Edit: sorry, mean increasing pension age. I don't know if you saw the report that Gmt has halted the latest proposed increase for thsat reason.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
Yep, we’re only a short step away from Remain should have saved us Leavers from ourselves.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
No, it really wasn't.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Then politicians need to start explaining that "reversing it", in the sense of reverting to the previous terms of membership", is not going to be on the table.
Leave being undefined in 2016 proved to be a major problem in the following three years - that error can't be repeated in reverse.
This 'Rejoin' business is all academic though, isn't it - what on earth makes anyone think they would have us back?
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
What, civil war, US intervention, and decimation of the population ?
Drastic, but I see your long term thinking.
You need to go there
The optimism is deliciously intoxicating. Unlike the “Chateau Dalat wine”
Also I had the best sandwich in the world, here
Optimism IS intoxicating. I am rather enjoying watching films from the periods when America wasn't wracked with self loathing (largely pre-Vietnam, and also roughly 1980-2001). It's quite jarring. You keep waiting for the snark which doesn't happen.
The best sandwich I ever had was at Trent Bridge, last summer. Just a grilled cheese sandwich, but wow. Up until then, the best sandwich I had ever had was a roast beef and marmalade sandwich I had in January 2008 in one of the little arcades of Briggate in Leeds.
If Labour screw over the young as it seems they are intent on doing, the young will never forgive them. They will not exist in thirty years time.
They do have the Scottish Greens and the SNP tdo vote for. No other parties bar the E&W Greens (I think the same party but I could be wrong) seems so oriented towards the younger voters.
Edit: I'm OAP but share your concern re the old vs young issue.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I was involved, at local level, with the Stay In campaign in 1975. It was a great deal better organised and run than 2016’s. One big difference was that the Conservative organisation, in South Essex at least, was wholly in favour.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
I'm sure you're right about Vietnam (particularly as you've been there and I haven't), but even medium-long term what will be the tangible/measurable effect on the UK? In other words how will that dynamism transfer to the raddled old UK (or 'shithole' as one PBer recently described it)?
This is a big win for Scottish whisky which will see zero tariffs across the block (Malaysia is currently 80%)
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I think we agreed beforehand that the rule of thumb in referenda is that the status quo normally wins. Leave had an uphill battle. It also had a fairly unusual set of circumstances in its favour with, amongst other things, Corbyn being LOTO.
Well there are more than one rule of thumbs. Eg another one is heart rules head. I have a minority view that Leave in essence won by miles. That 52/48 underplays the strength of the mood. Which is what it principally was - a 'mood'.
The latest poll from PeoplePolling has the conservatives on 24%, which is their highest equal rating for this polling company since the special fiscal event in September last year.
That said, the Brexit Party managed 2.1% in 2019 even when standing in less than half the seats (276 out of 650 including NI) because they chose not to contest Conservative held seats in order to get Brexit through. So the starting position, assuming that next time they contest all seats including Conservative ones, is effectively at least double that of 2019, at 4%. Then you need to add in the fact that the vote they got even in the (mainly Labour) seats that they did contest was squeezed tactically by pressure to elect a Brexit-supporting Conservative in often marginal seats, a tactical imperative that has disappeared now Brexit is not in play. And take account too of the massive unpopularity of the Conservatives now compared to then, plus what they may specifically see as "betrayal" of their beloved Johnson, and also the general dissatisfaction at the Conservatives' cock-eyed implementation of Brexit amongst Leave as well as Remain voters.
In those circumstances, I can envisage Reform reaching 6% if not 8%. Roughly 50% up on 2019 levels in the seats they contested in 2019, and polling at a roughly similar level in the then Conservative-held seats that they didn't contest.
The latest poll from PeoplePolling has the conservatives on 24%, which is their highest equal rating for this polling company since the special fiscal event in September last year.
That said, the Brexit Party managed 2.1% in 2019 even when standing in less than half the seats (276 out of 650 including NI) because they chose not to contest Conservative held seats in order to get Brexit through. So the starting position, assuming that next time they contest all seats including Conservative ones, is effectively at least double that of 2019, at 4%. Then you need to add in the fact that the vote they got even in the (mainly Labour) seats that they did contest was squeezed tactically by pressure to elect a Brexit-supporting Conservative in often marginal seats, a tactical imperative that has disappeared now Brexit is not in play. And take account too of the massive unpopularity of the Conservatives now compared to then, plus what they may specifically see as "betrayal" of their beloved Johnson, and also the general dissatisfaction at the Conservatives' cock-eyed implementation of Brexit amongst Leave as well as Remain voters.
In those circumstances, I can envisage Reform reaching 6% if not 8%. Roughly 50% up on 2019 levels in the seats they contested in 2019, and polling at a roughly similar level in the then Conservative-held seats that they didn't contest.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
The benefit is going to be cultural, it will force British companies to compete in Asia. That alone is worth the price of entry. I love Europe, it's a great place to visit and live, it isn't, however, particularly dynamic and as we see across the whole continent (including the UK) entitlement culture has taken over. Europeans seem to believe we are owed a living.
Will it?
How?
I'm a long way from the world of business, but if British business is told "become more dynamic or else", I imagine that quite a lot of them will sell up and retire on the proceeds.
And that's before we get to the views of the British electorate.
I overtook an MG3 (on the inside, LOL) last week and despite the 80mph speed difference I could see that the alignment was so far out it was practically going down the road sideways. It was on a 71 plate...
Just traded my GSX-R1000R (CPTPP) for a new M1000RR (EU).
Finally accepting middle age. Not an easy choice I'm sure.
DA will be buying a Maxi at this rate.
Puch Maxi, perhaps.
I had one of those
Who didn't?
Me. My initial bike trajectory was FS-1E -> RD250LC -> ZX-7R (did a Kawasaki France racing livery on it in my parents' garage and got overspray on my dad's XJ12 but it came out mint)
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
Doubt it, the way UK life expectation is going. Edit: sorry, mean increasing pension age. I don't know if you saw the report that Gmt has halted the latest proposed increase for thsat reason.
Yes I did see that but also that the pension age will need to rise to 70 over the coming years
If Labour screw over the young as it seems they are intent on doing, the young will never forgive them. They will not exist in thirty years time.
They do have the Scottish Greens and the SNP tdo vote for. No other parties bar the E&W Greens (I think the same party but I could be wrong) seems so oriented towards the younger voters.
Edit: I'm OAP but share your concern re the old vs young issue.
Yes, but that rather assumes younger votes are driven primarily by identity politics and fashionable causes, rather than a long term economic future. And of course, many are. But I suspect rather more really just want the opportunity to have a home and a family like their parents could.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
The benefit is going to be cultural, it will force British companies to compete in Asia. That alone is worth the price of entry. I love Europe, it's a great place to visit and live, it isn't, however, particularly dynamic and as we see across the whole continent (including the UK) entitlement culture has taken over. Europeans seem to believe we are owed a living.
Will it?
How?
I'm a long way from the world of business, but if British business is told "become more dynamic or else", I imagine that quite a lot of them will sell up and retire on the proceeds.
And that's before we get to the views of the British electorate.
Not just the bosses will jack it in . The workers might have a view too. Note that the new deal reportedly enables foreigh companies to challenge UKG on such things as minimum wage. How this works I am not clear. But the courts are secret, unlike the European ones.
If Labour screw over the young as it seems they are intent on doing, the young will never forgive them. They will not exist in thirty years time.
They do have the Scottish Greens and the SNP tdo vote for. No other parties bar the E&W Greens (I think the same party but I could be wrong) seems so oriented towards the younger voters.
Edit: I'm OAP but share your concern re the old vs young issue.
Yes, but that rather assumes younger votes are driven primarily by identity politics and fashionable causes, rather than a long term economic future. And of course, many are. But I suspect rather more really just want the opportunity to have a home and a family like their parents could.
But those parties are not, at present, advocating the hard-on pampering of the elderly Tory voter in the home counties. Land tax reform, for instance, is one measure which can help balance matters.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
The benefit is going to be cultural, it will force British companies to compete in Asia. That alone is worth the price of entry. I love Europe, it's a great place to visit and live, it isn't, however, particularly dynamic and as we see across the whole continent (including the UK) entitlement culture has taken over. Europeans seem to believe we are owed a living.
Will it?
How?
I'm a long way from the world of business, but if British business is told "become more dynamic or else", I imagine that quite a lot of them will sell up and retire on the proceeds.
And that's before we get to the views of the British electorate.
Not just the bosses will jack it in . The workers might have a view too. Note that the new deal reportedly enables foreigh companies to challenge UKG on such things as minimum wage. How this works I am not clear. But the courts are secret, unlike the European ones.
‘Minimum wage’ in Vietnam is a different animal to that in UK. Or Australia for that matter!
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Because the surveys are generally not the full picture. Asking 'Rejoin, yes or no' is not what would be the reality. The EU isn't going to let us back in under the same terms we left. It would be see the UK with no rebate, paying more in, and reduced voting rights. Now people may still opt for that, but thats not what they are polling on.
In which case those in charge should be charged with treason. They have dragged the country into an extremely damaging situation without even an exit route. Generals have faced firing squads for less.
You can execute 52% of the population if you want, I guess.
@carlbildt It’s a good move by 🇬🇧 to join the CPTPP large Asia-Pacific trade agreement, and one that in my opinion 🇪🇺 would be wise to follow to complement its different free trade agreements in the region.
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
The benefit is going to be cultural, it will force British companies to compete in Asia. That alone is worth the price of entry. I love Europe, it's a great place to visit and live, it isn't, however, particularly dynamic and as we see across the whole continent (including the UK) entitlement culture has taken over. Europeans seem to believe we are owed a living.
Will it?
How?
I'm a long way from the world of business, but if British business is told "become more dynamic or else", I imagine that quite a lot of them will sell up and retire on the proceeds.
And that's before we get to the views of the British electorate.
Not just the bosses will jack it in . The workers might have a view too. Note that the new deal reportedly enables foreigh companies to challenge UKG on such things as minimum wage. How this works I am not clear. But the courts are secret, unlike the European ones.
That supposed 0.08% will not be just winners. We always forget the losers and just see a 'positive' aggregate.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Then politicians need to start explaining that "reversing it", in the sense of reverting to the previous terms of membership", is not going to be on the table.
Leave being undefined in 2016 proved to be a major problem in the following three years - that error can't be repeated in reverse.
This 'Rejoin' business is all academic though, isn't it - what on earth makes anyone think they would have us back?
Oh, they would if they could guarantee we wouldn't leave again.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
The "idea" behind Brexit was democracy.
Remainers feel really, really sore because they thought they had right on their side. Right up until the point where democracy said "Nope...." But that is what you get, Remainers, when you spend 40 years shrinking from democracy. And in the process, shrinking democracy.
The great idea behind Brexit was that for the UK, democracy was top trumps to the EU and the technocrats' distaste of asking people what they want. And on that, it has delivered.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
Doubt it, the way UK life expectation is going. Edit: sorry, mean increasing pension age. I don't know if you saw the report that Gmt has halted the latest proposed increase for thsat reason.
Yes I did see that but also that the pension age will need to rise to 70 over the coming years
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
What, civil war, US intervention, and decimation of the population ?
Drastic, but I see your long term thinking.
You need to go there
The optimism is deliciously intoxicating. Unlike the “Chateau Dalat wine”
Also I had the best sandwich in the world, here
Optimism IS intoxicating. I am rather enjoying watching films from the periods when America wasn't wracked with self loathing (largely pre-Vietnam, and also roughly 1980-2001). It's quite jarring. You keep waiting for the snark which doesn't happen.
The best sandwich I ever had was at Trent Bridge, last summer. Just a grilled cheese sandwich, but wow. Up until then, the best sandwich I had ever had was a roast beef and marmalade sandwich I had in January 2008 in one of the little arcades of Briggate in Leeds.
The famous “smoked eel sandwich” at Quo Vadis in Soho is phenomenal
I used to adore Pret A Manger’s All Day Breakfast sandwich - soaked in Kikkoman’s soy sauce. But they stopped selling them! 😨
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
Doubt it, the way UK life expectation is going. Edit: sorry, mean increasing pension age. I don't know if you saw the report that Gmt has halted the latest proposed increase for thsat reason.
Yes I did see that but also that the pension age will need to rise to 70 over the coming years
Or the triple lock goes to prevent this raising, which is John Cridlands view.
I'm enjoying the groupthink on the CPTPP from our ardent remainers this morning. The same failed treasury models that suggest we shouldn't ever invest money in the North of England that they rage about all the time are predicting 0.08% GDP gain from the deal. If you think the treasury models are wrong about investment outside of the SE and London then you also should think that they are wrong about the impact of the trade deal.
Simply, the treasury, OBR and others have models which don't calculate the possibility of something existing where there was nothing before...
Given we have existing trade agreements with almost all the partners, that's simply not true.
Again, it's not about the trade deals, it's that the models don't take into account entirely new industries and trade and being a member of a very fast growing and innovative trade grouping gives us a much better opportunity to benefit from these new industries, those that simply don't exist today.
A weird argument. If it is the case there will be mysterious new industries and opportunities for the UK at some indeterminate point in the future, then why on earth would we be in a better position to exploit them with customers the other side of the world rather than with the mega market right on our doorstep, with which we would have had extremely low trade friction if we hadn't erected barriers for ideological reasons?
Because the EU doesn't do new innovative industries in the same way Asia does. Without the UK the EU struggles badly when it comes to the 'innovation economy', it's still stuck in the mid 20th century.
Remind me again who was first off the mark with the development of an effective and innovative Covid vaccine?
That would be the uk a non eu country wouldn't it
I assume they were thinking Biontech, although it's true AZ got approval first. The original Europe vs Asia innovation point was nonsense anyway.
The EU is actively sabotaging the tech sector with laws even as we speak.....think of the ban on GM products and the heinous digital services act for a start. Though its true the uk is trying to catch up with the malevolent online safety bill
Having just been to Vietnam I can say the energy, dynamism and potential there is palpable. It is the future
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term (About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
What, civil war, US intervention, and decimation of the population ?
Drastic, but I see your long term thinking.
You need to go there
The optimism is deliciously intoxicating. Unlike the “Chateau Dalat wine”
Also I had the best sandwich in the world, here
Optimism IS intoxicating. I am rather enjoying watching films from the periods when America wasn't wracked with self loathing (largely pre-Vietnam, and also roughly 1980-2001). It's quite jarring. You keep waiting for the snark which doesn't happen.
The best sandwich I ever had was at Trent Bridge, last summer. Just a grilled cheese sandwich, but wow. Up until then, the best sandwich I had ever had was a roast beef and marmalade sandwich I had in January 2008 in one of the little arcades of Briggate in Leeds.
The famous “smoked eel sandwich” at Quo Vadis in Soho is phenomenal
I used to adore Pret A Manger’s All Day Breakfast sandwich - soaked in Kikkoman’s soy sauce. But they stopped selling them! 😨
Sainsbury's Brie, Bacon and Chili Chutney.
The Bacon and Brie from the food van at Rest and be thankful is phenomenal.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
The "idea" behind Brexit was democracy.
Remainers feel really, really sore because they thought they had right on their side. Right up until the point where democracy said "Nope...." But that is what you get, Remainers, when you spend 40 years shrinking from democracy. And in the process, shrinking democracy.
The great idea behind Brexit was that for the UK, democracy was top trumps to the EU and the technocrats' distaste of asking people what they want. And on that, it has delivered.
I don’t feel that I live in a more ‘democratic’ state, with less technocratic control, now than before. In fact, given the current changes to the system, I think it’s less democratic!
*Seats defined by R&W as "[...]more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum"
Is that right? Seats as much as five-and-a-bit points more Leave than the country as a whole? And you're characterising them as "remain friendly"?
By "remain friendly" I was describing the group as a whole. If that does not satisfy you I am quite happy for your benefit to amend that to read "mostly remain-friendly". The point being that since the minimum remain-voting % was at most only 6% below the UK average, with no limit on how much it was above the UK average, the mean remain % vote in those seats will clearly have been well above that for the UK as a whole.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
What do you see as the big win with CPTPP, bearing in mind the UK has free trade agreements with most of the members already, which are in any case marginal in terms of trade facilitation?
If I could answer for him. He's doing what so many Leavers have been doing on here in recent weeks. Trying to find any justification they can to excuse what was an insane decision.
They had a piece on the CPTPP on one of the financial programs last night and as you suggest it's almost a complete waste of time. We have those deals anyway and it's value to the UK is negligible compared to the free trade agreement we had with the EU and that's before any sane person starts looking at the geography....
It's not a complete waste of time, Roger.
It will have the effect of making any rapprchement with the EU, never mind rejoining, rather more difficult. It helps to cut off the route back.
The 52% will therefore welcome it.
I thought it was the 40% these days ?
Yes 60% want to rejoin with not a single (serviceable) party to represent them
Don't talk bollocks no where near 60% has been polled for rejoin
Redfield & Wilton, February this year, found 56% for rejoin, against 36% for stay out and 8% for neither. Excluding neithers, that's 61% for rejoin. That, however, is the highest figure I've seen. Excluding neithers, the figure is usually around 55%.
Hence the seagull-on-unattended-chips excitement of the recent poll that put Rejoin "only" 1 percent ahead.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
Then politicians need to start explaining that "reversing it", in the sense of reverting to the previous terms of membership", is not going to be on the table.
Leave being undefined in 2016 proved to be a major problem in the following three years - that error can't be repeated in reverse.
This 'Rejoin' business is all academic though, isn't it - what on earth makes anyone think they would have us back?
Watch the only two parties who would have to negotiate the matter. Neither Lab nor Con has given the tiniest indication of the subject being anywhere near the table, while lots of people who won't have to deal with it (LDs, SNP, SDLP, SF) have strong views the other way.
At some point a bubble can burst - when perhaps it is obvious that the status quo is not that great.
At which point the inflexibility of the EU kicks in. EU membership and Brexit are both outcomes which, for good reasons, most people regard as sub-optimal.
(Most people don't want FoM, most people do want SM and CU - the one deal that, irrationally, can't be had. If FoM is as great as the EU thinks, then surely allowing a UK derogation only harms the UK).
Getting to that point is a UK political failure -mostly Major and Blair but others too - as well as lack of vision from the EU.
The young generation will never vote for any of this lot.
Give it two Parliaments of a Labour government feathering the nests of pensioners and you would be surprised at how things might change.
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The two things Labour will do is commit to the triple lock and undoubtedly increase the pension age to 69 then 70
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
Doubt it, the way UK life expectation is going. Edit: sorry, mean increasing pension age. I don't know if you saw the report that Gmt has halted the latest proposed increase for thsat reason.
Yes I did see that but also that the pension age will need to rise to 70 over the coming years
Or the triple lock goes to prevent this raising, which is John Cridlands view.
It is certainly fairer to the young.
I agree but Starmer backs the triple lock as does Reeves
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
I think the mood was there but not picked up. Eg Cameron, he went the Blair route of succumbing to belief in his own hype as a communicator and winner.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
I'd be surprised if there was unanimity to let China in any time soon.
I don't think what's left of the UK car industry would be too pleased with the consequences of tariff free imports from the Chinese megacorps like SAIC, Geely, etc. You'd be able to buy a Trumpchi GS8 for buttons.
We can already buy Chinese-made MGs for buttons. If the west allows China free reign then it will happily supply us *everything*. So TikTok has been declared spyware. Not that big a deal. But what if the laptop I am working on was also found to be Chinese spyware? My router? My keyboard? My car?
The UK has given up on making cars.
I thought we did that one before - vehicle output is down 30-50% from peak across car manufacturing in Europe, including the UK.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
No, it really wasn't.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
Yea, but they didn't have Russian bot factories on their side. Oh, hang on, we must believe the "Russia Report" and believe that social media manipulation did not take place, and of course it is obvious that Vlad wanted to respect our democratic process.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
The "idea" behind Brexit was democracy.
Remainers feel really, really sore because they thought they had right on their side. Right up until the point where democracy said "Nope...." But that is what you get, Remainers, when you spend 40 years shrinking from democracy. And in the process, shrinking democracy.
The great idea behind Brexit was that for the UK, democracy was top trumps to the EU and the technocrats' distaste of asking people what they want. And on that, it has delivered.
I don’t feel that I live in a more ‘democratic’ state, with less technocratic control, now than before. In fact, given the current changes to the system, I think it’s less democratic!
Surely new restrictions on the right to protest, the government openly saying its proposed new legislation is likely illegal and reducing the chance of the poorest voting in elections should give you ample confidence in our democratic progress?
I think the French pension crisis is about both how it's been done, and what's been done.
Listening in, the package hits manual workers harder, and they aren't happy.
Plus Macron is a traditional arrogant French ENA bureaucrat given the powers of a monarch, trying too hard not to be one, and does not have much political subtlety - as we have seen ad infinitum as he has trashed almost everything he has touched.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
I think the mood was there but not picked up. Eg Cameron, he went the Blair route of succumbing to belief in his own hype as a communicator and winner.
I think Leave did run a better campaign than Remain. But they did have inherent advantages. The big problem for the pro-EUers, then and now, is that it is very difficult to create a positive argument and vision for the EU that chimes with reality and most of the electorate. The vision of a USE is a coherent one but doesn't appeal beyond a small minority.
"We should work closely with our neighbours?" "Sure, but don't non-EU states also do that?"
"It makes better laws than the UK does" "That seems rather anti-British, and I am proud of being British"
"It overcomes the divisions of the world wars" "The division of the last world war is because Germany was run by a genocidal regime, it wasn't the fault of Britain's actions"
"It allows us to travel freely round Europe" "Yeah but it also means anyone from Europe can come here, and I manage to travel to non-EU countries just fine"
The same will be the case in any future Rejoin referemdum.
"One in 25 American five-year-olds today will not make it to their 40th birthday. No parent should ever have to bury their child, but in the US one set of parents from every kindergarten class most likely will" -@jburnmurdoch
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
No, it really wasn't.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
Well of course we got plenty of "are you for or against Brexit?" - Brexit was the proposition. I bet in 1975 we heard lots of "are you for or against joining the Common Market?" in the pubs and clubs and fish markets and factory canteens all over this land (that we love).
@carlbildt It’s a good move by 🇬🇧 to join the CPTPP large Asia-Pacific trade agreement, and one that in my opinion 🇪🇺 would be wise to follow to complement its different free trade agreements in the region.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
No, it really wasn't.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
Yea, but they didn't have Russian bot factories on their side. Oh, hang on, we must believe the "Russia Report" and believe that social media manipulation did not take place, and of course it is obvious that Vlad wanted to respect our democratic process.
The idea that an election of 34 million votes was affected by randoms on Twitter is ridiculous. The fact you lot are still trying to find excuses and can't self-criticize is why you would lose again.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
No, it really wasn't.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
Yea, but they didn't have Russian bot factories on their side. Oh, hang on, we must believe the "Russia Report" and believe that social media manipulation did not take place, and of course it is obvious that Vlad wanted to respect our democratic process.
Putin doesn't care which way people in the West vote.
He does care that people in the West distrust their democracies because of his (real or perceived) manipulations.
Whatever he did in 2016, it didn't swing the vote - don't do his dirty work for him.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
That's not the old Liberal version I have, which goes:
The people's flag is slightly pink, It's not as red as most folks think. We must not let the people know What socialists thought long ago.
Chorus: Don't let the scarlet banner float. We want the middle classes vote. Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer, We'll stay in power for many a year.
Some years ago the flag was red; No-one knew then what was ahead. It witnessed many a deed and vow - We cannot use that colour now. Chorus
It well recalled the triumphs past, It gave the hope of peace at last But once in government it's plain The red flag none shall see again. Chorus
With heads uncovered once we swore Always to bear it on before. With power now our first concern We have to let the red flag burn. Chorus
The damage is done afterwards when a narrow win is interpreted as "total victory" and the careers of the vanquished are put to the sword. Mr Yousaf seems to be rushing to make similar mistakes with Scotland and the SNP to those made by the Conservative leadership after 23 June 2016.
Mr Yousaf has not tried for consensus in his party. Nine out of 10 of the top jobs in the Scottish government including his own have gone to his supporters.
None of the 11 MSPs who endorsed Kate Forbes have been appointed. Keith Brown, the elected depute leader of the party, has been sacked as veterans and justice minister. Mr Brown did not take sides in the recent leadership contest, he was elected number two in the party in 2018 by 55%, a bigger margin than Yousaf.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
I think the mood was there but not picked up. Eg Cameron, he went the Blair route of succumbing to belief in his own hype as a communicator and winner.
I think Leave did run a better campaign than Remain. But they did have inherent advantages. The big problem for the pro-EUers, then and now, is that it is very difficult to create a positive argument and vision for the EU that chimes with reality and most of the electorate. The vision of a USE is a coherent one but doesn't appeal beyond a small minority.
"We should work closely with our neighbours?" "Sure, but don't non-EU states also do that?"
"It makes better laws than the UK does" "That seems rather anti-British, and I am proud of being British"
"It overcomes the divisions of the world wars" "The division of the last world war is because Germany was run by a genocidal regime, it wasn't the fault of Britain's actions"
"It allows us to travel freely round Europe" "Yeah but it also means anyone from Europe can come here, and I manage to travel to non-EU countries just fine"
The same will be the case in any future Rejoin referemdum.
No, it wouldn't.
Rejoin could promise any old shit, like Leave did last time around. Stay out would be stuck with the reality we're living in.
How long will it be before someone proposes a two-tier retirement system, with manual workers being able to retire earlier? The probably is how you define manual work, because some people will do jobs that are a mixture of manual and non-manual.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
I think the mood was there but not picked up. Eg Cameron, he went the Blair route of succumbing to belief in his own hype as a communicator and winner.
I think Leave did run a better campaign than Remain. But they did have inherent advantages. The big problem for the pro-EUers, then and now, is that it is very difficult to create a positive argument and vision for the EU that chimes with reality and most of the electorate. The vision of a USE is a coherent one but doesn't appeal beyond a small minority.
"We should work closely with our neighbours?" "Sure, but don't non-EU states also do that?"
"It makes better laws than the UK does" "That seems rather anti-British, and I am proud of being British"
"It overcomes the divisions of the world wars" "The division of the last world war is because Germany was run by a genocidal regime, it wasn't the fault of Britain's actions"
"It allows us to travel freely round Europe" "Yeah but it also means anyone from Europe can come here, and I manage to travel to non-EU countries just fine"
The same will be the case in any future Rejoin referemdum.
BIB: That is it in a nutshell, and it's why we weren't allowed to vote on Maastricht or the euro or the Constitution or Lisbon. If there's anything missing from your analysis it's that the USE is explicitly the aim of the EU and so it will always be the elephant in the room, ignoring which made the Remain campaign lose credibility (and the same would likely happen to a Rejoin campaign).
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
I'm weary of the 'Remain blew it with a crap campaign' line because it implies Leave knows they only won because they managed a better campaign on the day, but are unable to point to any demonstrable good to have come out of Brexit. Or to put it another way, 'Leave blew it with a really bad idea.'
The "idea" behind Brexit was democracy.
Remainers feel really, really sore because they thought they had right on their side. Right up until the point where democracy said "Nope...." But that is what you get, Remainers, when you spend 40 years shrinking from democracy. And in the process, shrinking democracy.
The great idea behind Brexit was that for the UK, democracy was top trumps to the EU and the technocrats' distaste of asking people what they want. And on that, it has delivered.
But it's all twaddle isn't it? The democratic aspect of Brexit is that people could and did ensure change through a vote, no matter how sensible or stupid. I didn't vote to stay in the EU because I had right on my side but because it was in the interests of my country to do so. A marginally larger number of people disagreed, at the time. That's democracy.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Horses for courses
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
But there's a terrible price for not being in it.
That was the extent of the Remain campaign's argument in 2016, which is why they lost. And if Rejoiners can't find a better argument, they'll never win.
Mmm, much better off in than out - terrible argument.
The Remain campaign argument wasn't "better in than out", it was "worse out than in". Which is why they lost.
Meaningless semantics. There's no absolute case for EU membership unless you're in the tiny band of USE idealists. The argument for the British public only exists relative to not being a member. And this is - not 'the' but 'a' - reason why Remain lost. Because there IS an absolute case for Leave that could be made in addition to the relative one. I'm talking about the purist case around sovereignty. It requires a noddy antiquated view of what sovereignty means but nevertheless it's an argument you can make and it was made to great effect.
No, it's anything but meaningless semantics. Votes aren't only won by logic, they're also won by appealing to emotion. That's why "better in than out", although mathematically equivalent to "worse out than in", is much better at winning votes.
The message was better in than out.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
But that’s shite
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
I think the mood was there but not picked up. Eg Cameron, he went the Blair route of succumbing to belief in his own hype as a communicator and winner.
I think Leave did run a better campaign than Remain. But they did have inherent advantages. The big problem for the pro-EUers, then and now, is that it is very difficult to create a positive argument and vision for the EU that chimes with reality and most of the electorate. The vision of a USE is a coherent one but doesn't appeal beyond a small minority.
"We should work closely with our neighbours?" "Sure, but don't non-EU states also do that?"
"It makes better laws than the UK does" "That seems rather anti-British, and I am proud of being British"
"It overcomes the divisions of the world wars" "The division of the last world war is because Germany was run by a genocidal regime, it wasn't the fault of Britain's actions"
"It allows us to travel freely round Europe" "Yeah but it also means anyone from Europe can come here, and I manage to travel to non-EU countries just fine"
The same will be the case in any future Rejoin referemdum.
Exactly. There was no serious mileage in making the idealist EU case. Hence the argument had to be the practical and relative one - we are better off in than out. Which was the argument made. The notion the Remain side missed a trick by not getting pumped up and dewy-eyed over Ode to Joy and a common European identity/vision is horseshit. I'm truly surprised by how often it gets said. Ok, some of it is Leaver gaslighting, and that's easy to spot, but plenty seem to actually believe it.
Comments
70% of people think we should have a closer relationship with the EU, but only a third of peole want to be in the Single Market. So really despite Rejoin polling, what most people mean by Rejoin is probably not the EEA or EU, but something less than that.
They were between a very young RN midshipman and his sisters. It had been put together as a memorial after his death, I think. He was on an anti-slavery patrol and the slavers fired on the small boat he was commanding. The book ended with a copper plate handwriting letter from his Captain, and one from the senior hand in the boat.
“It's the first time we've joined a bloc like this in about 50 years, there's strength in numbers..”
We've got Socts Nationalists, British Nationalist, EU nationalists, Welsh Nationalists, NATO nationalists etc on here. Also the occasional Russian Nationalist (until @rcs1000 wields the hammer)
https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/notes-on-nationalism/
They did get head money for the poor people they liberated, which was a definite change from the wartime prize money sales of cargo from enemy ships!
A lot of people who thought Brexit was a good idea are now not so sure. Who'd have thunk it?
The EU has considerable potential benefits, but also considerable potential costs.
Leave won, because the benefits weren't seen to outweigh the costs. (And that remains my personal view).
With CPTPP, my perception is that the benefits of membership outweigh the costs.
It's not EU or CPTPP. It's two separate yes/no decisions.
It will do sod-all for our economy in the short term
(About 0.08%?) but in the medium-long term it is absolutely the way to go, for us
There have been a few announcements from Labour recently that demonstrate that they: recognise how high the average age of a British voter is; are 100% focused on winning elections as opposed to changing the country; will consequently disappoint anyone hoping for a rebalancing between the generations.
The big picture has been the same for most of the last year though;
Brexit as a lived experience is unpopular. The "with hindsight" question is running at about 53 bad idea/33 good idea/15 don't know.
The rejoin/stay out question is running at a smaller lead, mostly mid 40s plays mid 30s plays 20ish don't know.
Although Brexit is unpopular, it's still more popular than the Conservative Party. While that continues, I can see why other parties don't want to give them a "Brexit is in peril, only we will save it" opening.
But if the Will of the People settles at "we don't like this and want to reverse it", what should happen?
https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/what-id-tell-keir-starmer?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=858965&post_id=111806900&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
The head money meant that the best and brightest of the RN headed there after the Napoleonic wars were over. And were very, very keen on the job.
The other thing that was a surprise was what they did when it was found that slavers were buying back the captured slave ships at auction. The RN destroyed the ships and paid the prize money out of Navy funds. Given the parsimony with government money at the time, that was a sign of how strongly the policy was supported.
Drastic, but I see your long term thinking.
Or, looking at the other poll, 42-41 is not the same as 48-47.
But anyway, as explained, Leave had the noddy absolutist case about Sovereignty plus they could promise sunlit uplands (the relative case) plus they could appeal to Little Englander emotion. They had the easier sell but they also did it well. Should have won. Did win.
This "Remain blew it with a crap campaign' is just yet more 'blame Brexit on Remainers' drivel. I'm rather weary of it tbh.
It's biggest impact on sentiment might be simply puncturing the irrational negativity on which some people's views are based.
The optimism is deliciously intoxicating. Unlike the “Chateau Dalat wine”
Also I had the best sandwich in the world, here
But only absolute nutters blame Brexit for those.
Leave being undefined in 2016 proved to be a major problem in the following three years - that error can't be repeated in reverse.
Not good news if you are both from 1980 on
It also had a fairly unusual set of circumstances in its favour with, amongst other things, Corbyn being LOTO.
Or, if it was, then the Remain campaign was even more crap that I gave it credit for, because the message heard was "worse out than in". For example, all the discussion I heard in the real world in the months leading up to the referendum was pitched in terms of "are you for or against Brexit?"
And, yes, the Remain campaign's crapness absolutely should be blamed as a major factor for them losing the referendum. They had everything going for them - status quo bias, fear of the unknown, and the government putting their thumbs on the scale just as much as they thought they could get away with. Their failure was immense.
I am rather enjoying watching films from the periods when America wasn't wracked with self loathing (largely pre-Vietnam, and also roughly 1980-2001). It's quite jarring. You keep waiting for the snark which doesn't happen.
The best sandwich I ever had was at Trent Bridge, last summer. Just a grilled cheese sandwich, but wow.
Up until then, the best sandwich I had ever had was a roast beef and marmalade sandwich I had in January 2008 in one of the little arcades of Briggate in Leeds.
Edit: I'm OAP but share your concern re the old vs young issue.
I'm off to Korea for a couple of weeks or so in September, but that will have to be it, I'm afraid.
Cameron confidently boasted to Merkel he would win the referendum “no problem”. Remainers on here gloated that they would win “70/30”. All the pundits polls suggested - at first - that Remain would coast home
If Leave “should have won anyway” all the above makes no sense. But it does make sense because Remain should have won, not Leave
That this result did not occur is because the Remain campaign was poor and the Leave campaign was good, sometimes brilliant
One big difference was that the Conservative organisation, in South Essex at least, was wholly in favour.
That said, the Brexit Party managed 2.1% in 2019 even when standing in less than half the seats (276 out of 650 including NI) because they chose not to contest Conservative held seats in order to get Brexit through. So the starting position, assuming that next time they contest all seats including Conservative ones, is effectively at least double that of 2019, at 4%. Then you need to add in the fact that the vote they got even in the (mainly Labour) seats that they did contest was squeezed tactically by pressure to elect a Brexit-supporting Conservative in often marginal seats, a tactical imperative that has disappeared now Brexit is not in play. And take account too of the massive unpopularity of the Conservatives now compared to then, plus what they may specifically see as "betrayal" of their beloved Johnson, and also the general dissatisfaction at the Conservatives' cock-eyed implementation of Brexit amongst Leave as well as Remain voters.
In those circumstances, I can envisage Reform reaching 6% if not 8%. Roughly 50% up on 2019 levels in the seats they contested in 2019, and polling at a roughly similar level in the then Conservative-held seats that they didn't contest.
How?
I'm a long way from the world of business, but if British business is told "become more dynamic or else", I imagine that quite a lot of them will sell up and retire on the proceeds.
And that's before we get to the views of the British electorate.
It’s a good move by 🇬🇧 to join the CPTPP large Asia-Pacific trade agreement, and one that in my opinion 🇪🇺 would be wise to follow to complement its different free trade agreements in the region.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1641709044317421570
Remainers feel really, really sore because they thought they had right on their side. Right up until the point where democracy said "Nope...." But that is what you get, Remainers, when you spend 40 years shrinking from democracy. And in the process, shrinking democracy.
The great idea behind Brexit was that for the UK, democracy was top trumps to the EU and the technocrats' distaste of asking people what they want. And on that, it has delivered.
I used to adore Pret A Manger’s All Day Breakfast sandwich - soaked in Kikkoman’s soy sauce. But they stopped selling them! 😨
It is certainly fairer to the young.
Euro cloud providers react to MS potentially cutting deal on antitrust
https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/30/microsoft_euro_complaints/
#BREAKING OpenAI's ChatGPT blocked in Italy: privacy watchdog
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1641754618932723713?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The Bacon and Brie from the food van at Rest and be thankful is phenomenal.
In fact, given the current changes to the system, I think it’s less democratic!
At some point a bubble can burst - when perhaps it is obvious that the status quo is not that great.
At which point the inflexibility of the EU kicks in. EU membership and Brexit are both outcomes which, for good reasons, most people regard as sub-optimal.
(Most people don't want FoM, most people do want SM and CU - the one deal that, irrationally, can't be had. If FoM is as great as the EU thinks, then surely allowing a UK derogation only harms the UK).
Getting to that point is a UK political failure -mostly Major and Blair but others too - as well as lack of vision from the EU.
I think the French pension crisis is about both how it's been done, and what's been done.
Listening in, the package hits manual workers harder, and they aren't happy.
Plus Macron is a traditional arrogant French ENA bureaucrat given the powers of a monarch, trying too hard not to be one, and does not have much political subtlety - as we have seen ad infinitum as he has trashed almost everything he has touched.
"We should work closely with our neighbours?"
"Sure, but don't non-EU states also do that?"
"It makes better laws than the UK does"
"That seems rather anti-British, and I am proud of being British"
"It overcomes the divisions of the world wars"
"The division of the last world war is because Germany was run by a genocidal regime, it wasn't the fault of Britain's actions"
"It allows us to travel freely round Europe"
"Yeah but it also means anyone from Europe can come here, and I manage to travel to non-EU countries just fine"
The same will be the case in any future Rejoin referemdum.
(article not yet up on ft.com)
https://twitter.com/stefanfschubert/status/1641572948573057024
Ahem.
He does care that people in the West distrust their democracies because of his (real or perceived) manipulations.
Whatever he did in 2016, it didn't swing the vote - don't do his dirty work for him.
The people's flag is slightly pink,
It's not as red as most folks think.
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago.
Chorus:
Don't let the scarlet banner float.
We want the middle classes vote.
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer,
We'll stay in power for many a year.
Some years ago the flag was red;
No-one knew then what was ahead.
It witnessed many a deed and vow -
We cannot use that colour now.
Chorus
It well recalled the triumphs past,
It gave the hope of peace at last
But once in government it's plain
The red flag none shall see again.
Chorus
With heads uncovered once we swore
Always to bear it on before.
With power now our first concern
We have to let the red flag burn.
Chorus
Mr Yousaf has not tried for consensus in his party. Nine out of 10 of the top jobs in the Scottish government including his own have gone to his supporters.
None of the 11 MSPs who endorsed Kate Forbes have been appointed. Keith Brown, the elected depute leader of the party, has been sacked as veterans and justice minister. Mr Brown did not take sides in the recent leadership contest, he was elected number two in the party in 2018 by 55%, a bigger margin than Yousaf.
https://news.sky.com/story/precedent-suggests-winner-takes-all-interpretation-of-humza-yousafs-52-48-victory-will-only-be-start-of-difficulties-12845848
Rejoin could promise any old shit, like Leave did last time around.
Stay out would be stuck with the reality we're living in.
How long before CPTPP replaces the EU in second?