"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
I must say it feels very outlierish, as did the previous one showing Labour's lead slumping to 15.
I'm convinced nothing will change between now and the General Election bar a lot of froth and HYUFD claiming otherwise.
The dye is cast and people's minds are already made up.
Labour will win a landslide.
People said the same this time in 2009 that Cameron would win a landslide
And although I think he'll lose, Sunak is a more dangerous opponent than Brown. He's young, articulate and comparatively new at the top level. Brown was old, had a weird speaking manner and was deeply involved in all of New Labour's years in office.
I think 33/37 would be very plausible and I'm pretty sure that would be a hung Parliament.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
If Trump is convicted hard to see how he ends up nominee even if he only gets a suspended sentence.
The GOP nomination would likely be between DeSantis and Pence, with Trump probably endorsing his former VP reluctantly as he now despises DeSantis even more
The life expectancy of a woman aged 65 in 1841 was 11.5 years and reached 20.9 years in 2011. For men of the same age it was 10.9 years in 1841 and 18.3 years in 2011. But how has this affected how long pensions need to last?
In 1908 when the State Pension was first introduced for those aged 70 and over, a woman of this age was expected to live on average an additional 9.3 years, and a man 8.4 years (1901), meaning pensions needed to last around 9 years. However, compare this to the latest figures and we see how pensions need to last longer. The current state pension age for men is 65 and for women it will reach 65 by November 2018. In 2011 men and women at this age were expected to live for approximately 20 more years, meaning we need to make our pensions last more than twice as long as when they were first introduced.
As your graph demonstrates, the rise and indeed acceleration of the rate of increase in life expectancy during the term of the last Labour government was most impressive.
As was the rise in public satisfaction with the NHS over the same period, to the highest level since records began.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
Nope, the BMA have repeatedly said they are putting no preconditions on talks including their opening demand.
Incidentally Barclay has made no offer of the same deal as NHS other staff either.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
I would expect the most serious of the charges will be some version of tax evasion.
If the business had profits of $1m, he put through an expense of $100k hush money and therefor paid tax on profits of only $900k, that is a real crime unless he can show that the hush money was primarily for the business rather than his own ego, which is doubtful.
In that scenario I suppose his lawyer could make a case that anything damaging to Trump was damaging to the company and therefore a legitimate use of company funds.
It falls down a bit when you remember Trump had a reputation for hanging out with various whores and indeed their pimps including traffickers for years. Including Epstein. So it's hard to see how it could damage his reputation further even if she had told all.
I don't think he will be convicted and it is a mistake to go after him, but equally I think the idea it is for the companys benefit, not his own, is fanciful - possibly sufficient to get him off, but still fanciful.
Not a tax expert and definitely not a US/NY tax expert but in the UK if something like a laptop at home benefits both company and worker the tax can be split across the company and worker, but the company does have to report the personal benefits to the worker and pay NI on the value to the worker still.
It is perhaps just about valid that a hush payment is similarly split across business/employee but AIUI that has not happened either.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Govt Energy rebate larger than the increase in bills people are seeing?
Something that's been a trivial bonus for some (especially here) has been really quite substantial for others.
Two nations.
I wonder how much the energy rebate has underpinned Conservative ratings over the last six months, and what consequences that has for the next six?
(It's why the government's one-off bonus approach to public sector pay makes no sense to me. The effect in bank accounts will be matching(ish) inflation this year, than almost nothing at all next. Most people navigate by cash in the bank vs. days in the month, I'm sure.)
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Or you could provide links to the evidence that Joe Biden received these payments so we could assess the credibility of the evidence.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Simple fact is most MAGA Trumpite Americans think this is politically motivated. But they can't tell shit from Shinola.
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
The apparent course of yield curve de-inversion implies a strong recession in 2024 not now. Starmer the lucky general!
Twitter suggests the Trump indictment is 34 counts which would mean more than just the Stormy payment, but since the documents are sealed this may be wishful speculation
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election.
Trump himself is very litigious - I think out of many the thousands of cases involving Trump, in more than half Trump (or one of his companies) was the plaintiff.
Yes, his argument is actually going to be that his lawyer generally pays whores to keep quiet all the time, and that there was no specific instruction from Trump himself, related to this specific whore, at the time when it would be a breach of campaign finance regulations.
There has been a lot of confusing reporting of the raising of pension age from 62 to 64. In many countries this means the oldest age at which you can start to collect a state pension.
In France 62 is the *youngest* age, but you need to have worked enough years full time to qualify for it. There is a maximum age, when you can collect a pension even if you do not have enough years, I forget exactly but I think I heard 65. Anyone who has studied or has taken time out of paid employment in France, maybe a couple of years abroad, does not meet the extra requirements at 62. Most of these people are hardly affected by the proposed changes.
The result is that the burden of extra years work almost completely falls on the lower economic classes, who also are unlikely to have private pensions, again unlike many who have studied. I can understand that many are angry, because it is the worst off in society who are being asked to pay extra, while the better off aren't
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
If Trump is convicted hard to see how he ends up nominee even if he only gets a suspended sentence.
The GOP nomination would likely be between DeSantis and Pence, with Trump probably endorsing his former VP reluctantly as he now despises DeSantis even more
I'm not sure his conviction would be a bar. He and his supporters certainly would not view it is a real charge or conviction. If there's some kind of regulatory issue around criminal conviction, the GOP would change or ignore the rules.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election...
No doubt, but the timing of the payment, and that it was made through his then campaign manager, are awkward for him.
The life expectancy of a woman aged 65 in 1841 was 11.5 years and reached 20.9 years in 2011. For men of the same age it was 10.9 years in 1841 and 18.3 years in 2011. But how has this affected how long pensions need to last?
In 1908 when the State Pension was first introduced for those aged 70 and over, a woman of this age was expected to live on average an additional 9.3 years, and a man 8.4 years (1901), meaning pensions needed to last around 9 years. However, compare this to the latest figures and we see how pensions need to last longer. The current state pension age for men is 65 and for women it will reach 65 by November 2018. In 2011 men and women at this age were expected to live for approximately 20 more years, meaning we need to make our pensions last more than twice as long as when they were first introduced.
As your graph demonstrates, the rise and indeed acceleration of the rate of increase in life expectancy during the term of the last Labour government was most impressive.
As was the rise in public satisfaction with the NHS over the same period, to the highest level since records began.
Might anything have changed since then?
I certainly recall being advised by the actuaries of our pension scheme that there had been a marked slowdown in the rate at which life expectancy was growing with quite significant financial implications for the fund. I think we see the same in the government’s deferral of the increase in the qualifying age for the state pension.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Simple fact is most MAGA Trumpite Americans think this is politically motivated. But they can't tell shit from Shinola.
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
The argument that NYC shouldn’t indict Trump in case it riles up his base is from the same school of complicit cowardice that dare not supply weapons to Ukraine in case it makes Putin a bit cross.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Simple fact is most MAGA Trumpite Americans think this is politically motivated. But they can't tell shit from Shinola.
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
Trump cannot win a presidential the election without the traditional republicans and the christian right. His politics don't really fit with either of these groups, but he managed to persuade them that he was republican enough that most voted for him anyway. Being found guilty of fals election accounting will certainly put off quit a few traditional republicans and the christian right will not vote for him next time. The Christians even more because it's associated with a sex.
If there are more court cases that follow, even more from this group will be put off voting for him.
With Trump, this surely is Good News for his campaign. For his supporters this is more evidence that government is corrupt and needs Trump to cleanse it. The allegations don't matter as they are all false, what matters is that someone has to stand up for their values over the government, and that man is Trump.
Remember the claim - "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". Likely true. And the same is true with this.
As someone noted on twitter re. shooting someone on 5th Av, yeah, but you’d be even more certain to be indicted.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Simple fact is most MAGA Trumpite Americans think this is politically motivated. But they can't tell shit from Shinola.
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
It’s astounding that he still has such a thing.
They seem a lot more tenacious than the die hard Boris fans, who seem to have melted away faster than the spring snow in the last 2 weeks.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election...
No doubt, but the timing of the payment, and that it was made through his then campaign manager, are awkward for him.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election...
No doubt, but the timing of the payment, and that it was made through his then campaign manager, are awkward for him.
Was his campaign manager involved?
Sorry, lawyer.
The evidence we know about is from Cohen: ...In August 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to eight criminal charges, including a campaign finance violation for Daniels's payment. He stated under oath that he paid her "in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office". Cohen was sentenced to three years in federal prison on various charges, and was disbarred.. But there will likely he other evidence.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
Halving inflation looked the easiest of Sunak’s promises, a walk in the park according to the OBR, but inflation is already looking a lot stickier than forecast. Energy prices are static to falling but food prices are rising fast.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
Trump cannot win a presidential the election without the traditional republicans and the christian right. His politics don't really fit with either of these groups, but he managed to persuade them that he was republican enough that most voted for him anyway. Being found guilty of fals election accounting will certainly put off quit a few traditional republicans and the christian right will not vote for him next time. The Christians even more because it's associated with a sex.
If there are more court cases that follow, even more from this group will be put off voting for him.
I think that ship sailed when the pussy grabbing incident did not move his ratings in the slightest.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
In any case, lots of bills go up on or about 1 April. Often inflation linked and sometimes with a bit added, so shite if you haven't hadn an inflation-linked pay rise.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
Anecdotal evidence from PB sqillionaires doesn't match with my experience on the high street or when heating and lighting Castell Pete.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
Trump cannot win a presidential the election without the traditional republicans and the christian right. His politics don't really fit with either of these groups, but he managed to persuade them that he was republican enough that most voted for him anyway. Being found guilty of fals election accounting will certainly put off quit a few traditional republicans and the christian right will not vote for him next time. The Christians even more because it's associated with a sex.
If there are more court cases that follow, even more from this group will be put off voting for him.
I think that ship sailed when the pussy grabbing incident did not move his ratings in the slightest.
You are right.
Last year I stayed with a lovely South African family - hardworking, God-fearing Christians all of them. They were solidly behind Trump, because he was the only one out there defending their beliefs. They were therefore able to ignore everything that was said about him.
If you think he's 'one of us', nothing else matters.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
In any case, lots of bills go up on or about 1 April. Often inflation linked and sometimes with a bit added, so shite if you haven't hadn an inflation-linked pay rise.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
Halving inflation looked the easiest of Sunak’s promises, a walk in the park according to the OBR, but inflation is already looking a lot stickier than forecast. Energy prices are static to falling but food prices are rising fast.
Two thoughts/questions.
Has inflation ever not been sticky? The feedback loop between pay rises and price rises looks pretty hard to break, especially in the run-up to an election.
In a globalised economy, is it easier or harder to do the necessary reset job?
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
If Trump is convicted hard to see how he ends up nominee even if he only gets a suspended sentence.
The GOP nomination would likely be between DeSantis and Pence, with Trump probably endorsing his former VP reluctantly as he now despises DeSantis even more
I'm not sure his conviction would be a bar. He and his supporters certainly would not view it is a real charge or conviction. If there's some kind of regulatory issue around criminal conviction, the GOP would change or ignore the rules.
An interesting thought experiment for people of all persuasions is how you would feel if a party leader actively campaigned for EVERYTHING you believed in and had an excellent record of delivering it, but you also conceded that they'd committed an offence or a serious rules breach - breached lockdown rules, paid off a hooker, lied to the Commons, etc. Would you vote to get rid of them in favour of someone whose policies you rather disliked? I've found that many people who are fiercely opposed to someone (Trump, Johnson, etc.) but who also dislike them on ideological grounds go "hmm..." when asked that.
That's the inconsistency that MAGA fans detect. They completely get that Trump does bad things and makes indefensible comments. But they feel he's their guy, and they think many of his critics are hypocrites who would let him off if they didn't hate his politics.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
I know you like to be positive about anything HMG (London) do, but here, UK is handing over sovereignty to foreigners. Bloody odd thing for Brexiters to do. And it damages links with the EU.
'The TUC’s general secretary, Paul Nowak, said: “This deal allows multinational corporations to sue the UK government in secret courts for introducing policies which threaten their profits – this could include an increase in the minimum wage or bringing energy companies back into public ownership.”
[...]
Some trade experts said joining the CPTPP bloc would harm the UK’s ability to rejoin the EU at a later date, arguing that harmonising trade rules with the CPTPP countries would drive a wedge between Brussels and London.
[...]
Allowing secret courts to govern trade disputes between CPTPP members and the UK is expected to spark protests similar to those that helped scupper trade talks between the EU and Washington in 2016.'
I had an early night last night, have I missed any major news wise?
The King spoke German. The First Minister had a dodgy fountain pen. The former president still hasn't been arrested. So no, nothing important has happened.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election.
Trump himself is very litigious - I think out of many the thousands of cases involving Trump, in more than half Trump (or one of his companies) was the plaintiff.
The various cases which touch upon his finances make them look like a absolute mess of confusion, which even if there was no intent to commit a crime makes it so much harder for him and his accountants to keep track of what is what. If the convolutedness is not part of any criminal actions on his part it seems unnecessarily aggravating to himself, even accepting rich people will have complex arrangements.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
If Trump is convicted hard to see how he ends up nominee even if he only gets a suspended sentence.
The GOP nomination would likely be between DeSantis and Pence, with Trump probably endorsing his former VP reluctantly as he now despises DeSantis even more
I'm not sure his conviction would be a bar. He and his supporters certainly would not view it is a real charge or conviction. If there's some kind of regulatory issue around criminal conviction, the GOP would change or ignore the rules.
An interesting thought experiment for people of all persuasions is how you would feel if a party leader actively campaigned for EVERYTHING you believed in and had an excellent record of delivering it, but you also conceded that they'd committed an offence or a serious rules breach - breached lockdown rules, paid off a hooker, lied to the Commons, etc. Would you vote to get rid of them in favour of someone whose policies you rather disliked? I've found that many people who are fiercely opposed to someone (Trump, Johnson, etc.) but who also dislike them on ideological grounds go "hmm..." when asked that.
That's the inconsistency that MAGA fans detect. They completely get that Trump does bad things and makes indefensible comments. But they feel he's their guy, and they think many of his critics are hypocrites who would let him off if they didn't hate his politics.
Yeah there is a small element of that. But Trump is too extreme, public and prolific in his rule breaking for it to be significant. I think probably the left and certainly the centre/centre left would rather lose an election than have a Trumpite version win it for them.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
Halving inflation looked the easiest of Sunak’s promises, a walk in the park according to the OBR, but inflation is already looking a lot stickier than forecast. Energy prices are static to falling but food prices are rising fast.
The comedy bit is that they are saying "inflation is falling" when inflation is rising. It is this disconnection from reality which is our downfall.
Good start for Useless, asked the Boss for a lollipop on the phone and got chased, what an absolute tool.
First Minister Humza Yousaf says he has formally ‘demanded’ a section 30 order in a conversation with the Prime Minister requesting the powers to hold a second independence referendum.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Simple fact is most MAGA Trumpite Americans think this is politically motivated. But they can't tell shit from Shinola.
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
Oh, there's no question at all that it's politically motivated. That doesn't mean it's not justified.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
"More than 6 in 10 Americans (62 percent) think the Manhattan District Attorney's case involving former President Donald Trump is mainly motivated by politics, while 32 percent think the case is mainly motivated by the law."
"Americans 57 - 38 percent think criminal charges should disqualify former President Donald Trump from running for president again, if charges are filed against him as a result of multiple state and federal criminal investigations, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today."
"Nearly 8 in 10 Republican voters (79 percent) consider themselves supporters of the MAGA movement, while 18 percent do not."
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and which will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Can you tell me about the dispute mechanism process for the CPTPP?
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Indeed, it certainly compliments the EU by the implicit comparison.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
No aside from the joy of trading with your home nation already a member of the CPTPP, the 10 year horizon will likely see other members join if any of USA, China or India join, that;s one big trading block. And they have all expressed interest in it.
G7 now has 3 EU members, 3CPTPP members and 1 USA. On that basis it;s a good place to be.
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
Im beginning to warm to Sunak, he;s actually doing useful things
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
Yes, signing up to a trading block the other side of the world rather than one on one's doorstep makes perfect sense.
Are you saying we shouldn’t have signed up to CPTPP because we aren’t in the single market? So cut off our noses to spite our faces?
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Can you tell me about the dispute mechanism process for the CPTPP?
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
With not much on Services, but free trade in manufactured goods it may well be a better deal for consumers wanting cheap goods than our exporters. Look forward to more fast fashion.
Good start for Useless, asked the Boss for a lollipop on the phone and got chased, what an absolute tool.
First Minister Humza Yousaf says he has formally ‘demanded’ a section 30 order in a conversation with the Prime Minister requesting the powers to hold a second independence referendum.
With the polls where they are what would be the point? Lets say that Sunak had a senior moment and said yes, have your referendum. So we have another year of divisive debate, with the different factions of the SNP tearing itself apart with Yousless et all unable to say the word "Euro". No wins comfortably.
Surely you need to make the case for independence, cement that as the clear will of the people and then hold a referendum? Because a second no would be fatal for nationalism.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
With not much on Services, but free trade in manufactured goods it may well be a better deal for consumers wanting cheap goods than our exporters. Look forward to more fast fashion.
I'm already very worried about UK food security, the way things have already gone. This is not going to help.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
But the deal is worse than what we had before.
Is it, with the unaccountable laws and the unlimited immigration?
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
But surely it means a certain loss of our Soveriegnity, Big G?
The CPTPP thing is interesting. There is clear alignment between their standards and EU standards as we have been able to join the former whilst being almost entirely aligned to the latter. Alignment is a Good Thing - we want to remove pointless trading barriers.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Theres more to life than money,
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
But the deal is worse than what we had before.
"I have ALTERED the deal, Calrissian! Pray I don't alter it further!"
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and which will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
It's nothing like 'buying a start up'; that's just political flannel. In reality we already have trade agreements with almost everyone in the partnership except Malaysia. Which is why the forecast economic benefit is so small.
On balance probably a good thing, but for the foreseeable future, it's of little more than PR significance.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
It's definitely not a recession. I pointed this out in October and November that the on the ground feeling of the economy was very different from what the media narrative was. On here I just kept being told it's a London thing, it's close to Christmas or that people were dipping into their savings. In fact the savings rate increased to 9.3% and RHDI has increased by 1.3% in the quarter.
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
Your economy is doing rather well. Millions of other's economy is doing rather badly. The wealth in your economy is enough to hold the overall balance just about in the black.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
And yet the actual data proves me right and you wrong. Households have more disposable income and are saving more. Whatever nonsense you come up with doesn't change that.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
No, its not about the EU, it is simply an irrelevance, not even a rounding error on our future prosperity.
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
But there’s already a trade deal with the EU. The CP-TPP is extra.
But the deal is worse than what we had before.
What we had before was the threat of no deal at all.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
Ah yes
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
So 0.08% growth over ten years could be wildly optimistic. Experts, eh?
Now now, you've got to give Brexiteers their rare victories.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
OBR forecasts it will add 0.08% to the size of our economy.....over 10 years.
The importance of this block is future growth in membership and of course China has already applied
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and high will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
Just think, if it really accelerates, in 20 years time it might even add 0.5% to the size of our economy.
Many will be cynical maybe as some see it as a threat to our relationship with the EU but that would be wrong
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
But surely it means a certain loss of our Soveriegnity, Big G?
The CPTPP is a trading organisation of individual countries who agree their terms of trade but without any political alignment
Comments
I think 33/37 would be very plausible and I'm pretty sure that would be a hung Parliament.
It's not the colour you might think
White collar workers stand and cheer
The Labour government is here
We'll change the country bit by bit
So nobody will notice it
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
The cloth cap and the woolen scarf
Are images outdated
For we're the party's avant garde
And we are educated
So raise the rolled umbrella high
The college scarf, the old school tie
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
https://everything2.com/title/The+People%27s+Flag+is+Palest+Pink
This, IMO, is why economics is a pile of wank as a discipline. None of them actually seem to spend any time in the real world and on the rare occasion they get evidence, they'll fit it to their model rather than fit the model to the evidence.
By most major economic models the UK entered a recession last quarter, and quite a bad one too that is supposed to last until the end of this year. Anyone who actually spent time in the real economy, will have revised that prediction in October/November as I did. Most didn't.
The GOP nomination would likely be between DeSantis and Pence, with Trump probably endorsing his former VP reluctantly as he now despises DeSantis even more
As your graph demonstrates, the rise and indeed acceleration of the rate of increase in life expectancy during the term of the last Labour government was most impressive.
As was the rise in public satisfaction with the NHS over the same period, to the highest level since records began.
Might anything have changed since then?
Incidentally Barclay has made no offer of the same deal as NHS other staff either.
Not a tax expert and definitely not a US/NY tax expert but in the UK if something like a laptop at home benefits both company and worker the tax can be split across the company and worker, but the company does have to report the personal benefits to the worker and pay NI on the value to the worker still.
It is perhaps just about valid that a hush payment is similarly split across business/employee but AIUI that has not happened either.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1641682297983234048
Something that's been a trivial bonus for some (especially here) has been really quite substantial for others.
Two nations.
I wonder how much the energy rebate has underpinned Conservative ratings over the last six months, and what consequences that has for the next six?
(It's why the government's one-off bonus approach to public sector pay makes no sense to me. The effect in bank accounts will be matching(ish) inflation this year, than almost nothing at all next. Most people navigate by cash in the bank vs. days in the month, I'm sure.)
He will lose the rational independent part of his voter base though.
Headhunters are starting to contact me again.
In France 62 is the *youngest* age, but you need to have worked enough years full time to qualify for it. There is a maximum age, when you can collect a pension even if you do not have enough years, I forget exactly but I think I heard 65. Anyone who has studied or has taken time out of paid employment in France, maybe a couple of years abroad, does not meet the extra requirements at 62. Most of these people are hardly affected by the proposed changes.
The result is that the burden of extra years work almost completely falls on the lower economic classes, who also are unlikely to have private pensions, again unlike many who have studied. I can understand that many are angry, because it is the worst off in society who are being asked to pay extra, while the better off aren't
What evidence of blackmail do you have that no one else does ?
Or are you just repeating a Trump smear ?
There's a Wikipedia page, in case you're interested.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stormy_Daniels–Donald_Trump_scandal
Whatever else Trump did, he's already admitted lying about the payment, so he's perhaps not the most convincing witness in his own defence.
Underneath that balancing point there are a ridiculous number of people underwater. Inflation is still galloping away on the things they buy, wages aren't covering them. The problem for the government is that it needs people to feel better to vote for them.
You can't lie to people. You can't tell people inflation is going down when inflation is going up. You can't tell them they are statistically better off when they are demonstrably worse off. The Lee Anderson approach only ends in tears - his.
If there are more court cases that follow, even more from this group will be put off voting for him.
The evidence we know about is from Cohen:
...In August 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to eight criminal charges, including a campaign finance violation for Daniels's payment. He stated under oath that he paid her "in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office". Cohen was sentenced to three years in federal prison on various charges, and was disbarred..
But there will likely he other evidence.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/31/uk-national-price-hike-day-what-to-expect-and-how-to-lessen-blow
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gp-crisis-nhs-burnout-patient-numbers-uk-2023-6twwn0992 (£££)
Last year I stayed with a lovely South African family - hardworking, God-fearing Christians all of them. They were solidly behind Trump, because he was the only one out there defending their beliefs. They were therefore able to ignore everything that was said about him.
If you think he's 'one of us', nothing else matters.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/31/people-uk-april-bill-rises-council-tax-energy-water-telecoms
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/31/rising-bills-and-tax-hikes-to-make-uk-families-hundreds-of-pounds-worse-off
joining the CPTPP is a positive step for the UK
It seems we are joining the CPTPP of 11 other nations and unlike the EU it is a pure trading block not political
Our influence in this hugely important trading area and with AUKUS is welcome, and while it is not yet as important as trading with the EU it is where the fastest growth is expected
Jim McFadden, Shadow Secretary to the treasury, did reference CPTPP as a fast growth area and labour would support our membership as well as encouraging closer relationship with the EU
I would just comment this is not CPTPP good, EU bad, but both are important and Sunak’s closer relationship with the EU is a prerequisite to putting behind the Johnson/ Truss negative attitudes and I expect Starmer would continue much in the same vein to both trading blocks
Has inflation ever not been sticky? The feedback loop between pay rises and price rises looks pretty hard to break, especially in the run-up to an election.
In a globalised economy, is it easier or harder to do the necessary reset job?
That's the inconsistency that MAGA fans detect. They completely get that Trump does bad things and makes indefensible comments. But they feel he's their guy, and they think many of his critics are hypocrites who would let him off if they didn't hate his politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-65093237
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/31/uk-joins-asia-pacific-cptpp-trade-bloc-that-includes-japan-and-australia
'The TUC’s general secretary, Paul Nowak, said: “This deal allows multinational corporations to sue the UK government in secret courts for introducing policies which threaten their profits – this could include an increase in the minimum wage or bringing energy companies back into public ownership.”
[...]
Some trade experts said joining the CPTPP bloc would harm the UK’s ability to rejoin the EU at a later date, arguing that harmonising trade rules with the CPTPP countries would drive a wedge between Brussels and London.
[...]
Allowing secret courts to govern trade disputes between CPTPP members and the UK is expected to spark protests similar to those that helped scupper trade talks between the EU and Washington in 2016.'
the people who cant forecast to save their lives
if they cant forecast the next 10 weeks what chance accuracy over 10 years ?
The EU isnt just a trading bloc it is a commitment to a political project. If youre in you take on all the other shit.
CPTPP is just about trading. Suits me.
First Minister Humza Yousaf says he has formally ‘demanded’ a section 30 order in a conversation with the Prime Minister requesting the powers to hold a second independence referendum.
FM says Sunak “did not agree”. @SkyNews
"More than 6 in 10 Americans (62 percent) think the Manhattan District Attorney's case involving former President Donald Trump is mainly motivated by politics, while 32 percent think the case is mainly motivated by the law."
"Americans 57 - 38 percent think criminal charges should disqualify former President Donald Trump from running for president again, if charges are filed against him as a result of multiple state and federal criminal investigations, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today."
"Nearly 8 in 10 Republican voters (79 percent) consider themselves supporters of the MAGA movement, while 18 percent do not."
Remember when this app basically was the entire news for a few weeks?
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1641711548895772674/photo/1
As Badenoch has just commented, it is strategic for the future as in about 7 years 40% of the global middle class will be in the Indo-Pacific
She went on to say it is more like buying a start up and which will become huge in the future and commented this is not about replacing the EU but complimenting it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MnFTrS-Vr4
G7 now has 3 EU members, 3CPTPP members and 1 USA. On that basis it;s a good place to be.
As for the "amazing opportunity" piece, perhaps it is. But its a very small one. 0.08% over a decade. Lets assume they are out as @Alanbrooke suggests - perhaps by a factor of 10 if we really want to stick it to the OBR spoilsports.
Now the CPTPP is worth 0.8% of GDP. Wooooooooooo. Meanwhile the hit from exiting the EEA is already 4% in just a few years. So even if the OBR are wusses we're still only recovering a fraction of what we have lost.
If free trade and global trade are Good Things, why are we so desperate not to trade freely with our largest market? If non-domestic law is so bad, why have we signed a deal allowing foreign corporates to sue the UK government in foreign courts?
All I want is some consistency. Outside of politics some of us have to be able to add up and make reasoned proposals for a living. CPTPP replacing the EEA is neither.
Replacing the EU with the CPTPP is a bit like replacing a male porn star with a eunuch but hey ho.
There is no way on earth we could rejoin the single market for some time however hard people close their eyes and wish desperately so again would you rather we hadn’t signed up to make a point?
Also I think it was yesterday or day before where people were moaning about short termism - the CPTPP is a trading block of countries that are likely to grow much faster than Europe and they have China and South Korea in the queue which will enhance it further.
If we hadn’t joined now then in ten years when people are complaining we missed out on this it would have been a wasted opportunity for very little cost - even Minette Batters was approving of it from the farmers angle this morning.
It is good Labour are supporting it and that opportunities for trade are opening up worldwide
Sounds good,
Surely you need to make the case for independence, cement that as the clear will of the people and then hold a referendum? Because a second no would be fatal for nationalism.
Could we be reducing low gas prices a little early ?
The EU is a political project primarily, run for the benefit of its original members.
In reality we already have trade agreements with almost everyone in the partnership except Malaysia. Which is why the forecast economic benefit is so small.
On balance probably a good thing, but for the foreseeable future, it's of little more than PR significance.
https://twitter.com/StansaidAirport/status/1641559581938655233
It is not in the top 50 things the government should be doing. Perhaps it is in the 50-100 category but it is nothing to be excited by.