Compare and contrast UK pension policy with what is happening in France – politicalbetting.com
Over the past few weeks we have seen extraordinary TV pictures from France of the demonstrations that are taking place against the decision by the Macron government to try to increase the pensionable age up from 64.
Inevitable with the change in demographics with longer lives, and decreasing fertility. It's only immigration that keeps the population pyramid stable.
It is a worldwide issue and with fertility rates now below 1 in parts of Asia like South Korea is going to be a big drag on economies that cannot adapt.
The life expectancy of a woman aged 65 in 1841 was 11.5 years and reached 20.9 years in 2011. For men of the same age it was 10.9 years in 1841 and 18.3 years in 2011. But how has this affected how long pensions need to last?
In 1908 when the State Pension was first introduced for those aged 70 and over, a woman of this age was expected to live on average an additional 9.3 years, and a man 8.4 years (1901), meaning pensions needed to last around 9 years. However, compare this to the latest figures and we see how pensions need to last longer. The current state pension age for men is 65 and for women it will reach 65 by November 2018. In 2011 men and women at this age were expected to live for approximately 20 more years, meaning we need to make our pensions last more than twice as long as when they were first introduced.
It is interesting that the only significant protests here in recent years about pensions have been about ironing out something that was completely indefensible and a scandal for decades, namely the huge and unjustifiable sexism in the system against men. While the raising of the retirement age, which it is far easier to oppose, as it is not really possible to say that retirement at 66 will cripple the country while 67 will save it, passes with barely a murmur.
To me it shows that the wisdom in Lord Lawson's saying that a great deal of governing is telling the difficult from the disastrous. It is clearly very difficult to do and there's lots of luck involved. And, of course, even the luckiest politician will eventually run out - as Mrs Thatcher and Tony Blair did.
I'm one of those (just) after 1979 and I. expect I'll be waiting until 69 or 70 for my state pension. Not sure I necessarily disagree with it either.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
Same here, born late ‘77 and expecting to be at least 69. Not that it’s stopping me paying additional NICs to make up for a decade of working abroad, and saving like crazy with a plan for us to stop full-time work at 60.
I'm one of those (just) after 1979 and I. expect I'll be waiting until 69 or 70 for my state pension. Not sure I necessarily disagree with it either.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
Same here, born late ‘77 and expecting to be at least 69. Not that it’s stopping me paying additional NICs to make up for a decade of working abroad, and saving like crazy with a plan for us to stop full-time work at 60.
I was lucky. I received my state pension at 65. My wife will have to wait till 66yrs 5 months.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Worth noting life expectancy tends to correlate highly with prosperity but the relationship is far from precise.
Look at America. Or, Hungary (I believe) in the 1950s, after a crushed uprising. Economically, things grew significantly. Life expectancy declined, however.
I'm one of those (just) after 1979 and I. expect I'll be waiting until 69 or 70 for my state pension. Not sure I necessarily disagree with it either.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
Similar age here.
Essentially my retirement plan already involves treating the stage pension like a helpful bonus and trying to get to a place where I can do it entirely on my private pension. I honestly don't know if the maths of that completely stack up but it seems increasingly dodgy to rely on the state pension.
The US clearly has things worked out - feed the population on sugary highly processed fast food and make sure they can’t walk anywhere, and wait for nature to do the rest…
The US clearly has things worked out - feed the population on sugary highly processed fast food and make sure they can’t walk anywhere, and wait for nature to do the rest…
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve no idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The life expectancy of a woman aged 65 in 1841 was 11.5 years and reached 20.9 years in 2011. For men of the same age it was 10.9 years in 1841 and 18.3 years in 2011. But how has this affected how long pensions need to last?
In 1908 when the State Pension was first introduced for those aged 70 and over, a woman of this age was expected to live on average an additional 9.3 years, and a man 8.4 years (1901), meaning pensions needed to last around 9 years. However, compare this to the latest figures and we see how pensions need to last longer. The current state pension age for men is 65 and for women it will reach 65 by November 2018. In 2011 men and women at this age were expected to live for approximately 20 more years, meaning we need to make our pensions last more than twice as long as when they were first introduced.
Also of course the original old age pension was somewhat less than it is now. If memory serves it was 5s a week for a single person and 7/6 for a married couple.
Admittedly on national income share that was actually slightly more generous than the current state pension, but in terms of its official value it’s less than a sixth of it.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve no idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
That is true.
However when you have two groups making contrary statements and one of them is a friend and colleague of Boris Johnson, you start with the assumption that that person is less likely to be telling the truth.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve no idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
That is true.
However when you have two groups making contrary statements and one of them is a friend and colleague of Boris Johnson, you start with the assumption that that person is less likely to be telling the truth.
The Easter strike is going to be quite a shutdown.
Between large numbers on leave for Easter, Ramadan, and decreasing goodwill from staff, it is proving quite hard to cover.
Parliament isn't sitting, and I am sure that Barclay's constituents could spare him for a day or two next week to have talks, but he seems to prefer confrontation.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
The problem is, that isn't a 'settlement.' Because the other side won't accept it. We have the same problem in teaching where the NEU have already rejected a similar 'final' offer and NASUWT will reject it after thinking about it.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
I find this an odd one. It's a case of whether I *trust* the government or the BMA more. I distrust both.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
I'm one of those (just) after 1979 and I. expect I'll be waiting until 69 or 70 for my state pension. Not sure I necessarily disagree with it either.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
Same here, born late ‘77 and expecting to be at least 69. Not that it’s stopping me paying additional NICs to make up for a decade of working abroad, and saving like crazy with a plan for us to stop full-time work at 60.
Yes, and worth a reminder that the temporary scheme to relax the restrictions on additional NICs has been extended for a short period AIUI.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
That's going to mess with Labour's attack lines...
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
The problem is, that isn't a 'settlement.' Because the other side won't accept it. We have the same problem in teaching where the NEU have already rejected a similar 'final' offer and NASUWT will reject it after thinking about it.
It’s not a settlement until there’s agreement… it’s a negotiating position. They are trying to frame the structure of any settlement
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
The Trump Organization is still a company. There are still restrictions on what you can spend its money on. And in any case, false accounting and laundering money are crimes.
I think you're not seeing this very clearly. The issue is not be what happened at the start it's how he responded to it.
And how will millions of Americans see it? That he paid off a whore and lied to them about it? I think again you need to wonder how this will look to them...
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Will disposable income be higher partly due to the governments energy support measures?
I'm one of those (just) after 1979 and I. expect I'll be waiting until 69 or 70 for my state pension. Not sure I necessarily disagree with it either.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
Same here, born late ‘77 and expecting to be at least 69. Not that it’s stopping me paying additional NICs to make up for a decade of working abroad, and saving like crazy with a plan for us to stop full-time work at 60.
Yes, and worth a reminder that the temporary scheme to relax the restrictions on additional NICs has been extended for a short period AIUI.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Govt Energy rebate larger than the increase in bills people are seeing?
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
You’re missing the point:
The NY DA is a fervent Democrat
He wants to rile up Trump and the GOP base but not take him off the board
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
I would expect the most serious of the charges will be some version of tax evasion.
If the business had profits of $1m, he put through an expense of $100k hush money and therefor paid tax on profits of only $900k, that is a real crime unless he can show that the hush money was primarily for the business rather than his own ego, which is doubtful.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
The problem is, that isn't a 'settlement.' Because the other side won't accept it. We have the same problem in teaching where the NEU have already rejected a similar 'final' offer and NASUWT will reject it after thinking about it.
It’s not a settlement until there’s agreement… it’s a negotiating position. They are trying to frame the structure of any settlement
'the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)'
That precondition is unacceptable to the BMA so they're not willing to negotiate on that basis.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
I find this an odd one. It's a case of whether I *trust* the government or the BMA more. I distrust both.
That’s an odd word to use.
I assume that both parties are staking out a position favourable to themselves. I don’t have a dog in this hunt, so don’t have to “trust” or “distrust” either side
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
The Trump Organization is still a company. There are still restrictions on what you can spend its money on. And in any case, false accounting and laundering money are crimes.
I think you're not seeing this very clearly. The issue is not be what happened at the start it's how he responded to it.
And how will millions of Americans see it? That he paid off a whore and lied to them about it? I think again you need to wonder how this will look to them...
The millions that think this is worthy of sending an ex president (and future candidate) to jail didn't and wouldn’t vote for him. No, it’s an absolute ballsup. If there are far more serious indictments down the line, it’s almost a conspiracy level error to have come out with this one first.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
Liquidation of assets at the higher end?
No, it's an income measure not asset wealth.
This doesn’t feel like a recession despite the media narrative
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
But perhaps, once he is indicted on this, with fingerprints and mugshots, others will come forward on the stuff that will send him down for serious time?
Rather stupid move on indicting Trump. Simple fact is most Americans think this is politically motivated. And for those who go "no one is above the law", remember in the UK the CPS can decide not to prosecute if it's not in the public interest which covers such events.
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
You’re missing the point:
The NY DA is a fervent Democrat
He wants to rile up Trump and the GOP base but not take him off the board
So you choose a minor case like this…
Yes, having partisan politicallly affiliated elected prosecutors is a bad idea. This guy campaigned on finding sh!t on Trump, it’s not a good way to do things, and may have the opposite effect of emboldening Trump’s supporters.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
I would expect the most serious of the charges will be some version of tax evasion.
If the business had profits of $1m, he put through an expense of $100k hush money and therefor paid tax on profits of only $900k, that is a real crime unless he can show that the hush money was primarily for the business rather than his own ego, which is doubtful.
In that scenario I suppose his lawyer could make a case that anything damaging to Trump was damaging to the company and therefore a legitimate use of company funds.
It falls down a bit when you remember Trump had a reputation for hanging out with various whores and indeed their pimps including traffickers for years. Including Epstein. So it's hard to see how it could damage his reputation further even if she had told all.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
Surely on A), it is only proceeds of a crime (blackmail) by Stormy Daniels? I don't see what Trump is guilty of.
Only if you believe the BMAs position uncritically (as you do).
I’ve know idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
The BMA has stated many times that they have put no preconditions of any sort on talks.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
My understanding is that the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
The problem is, that isn't a 'settlement.' Because the other side won't accept it. We have the same problem in teaching where the NEU have already rejected a similar 'final' offer and NASUWT will reject it after thinking about it.
It’s not a settlement until there’s agreement… it’s a negotiating position. They are trying to frame the structure of any settlement
'the government has said that any settlement will only be on a similar basis to other proposals (ie an increase and a one time bonus)'
That precondition is unacceptable to the BMA so they're not willing to negotiate on that basis.
And the BMA has said they will only negotiate if the 35% pay rise is on the table.
That precondition is unacceptable to the government so they’re not willing to negotiate on that basis
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
The Trump Organization is still a company. There are still restrictions on what you can spend its money on. And in any case, false accounting and laundering money are crimes.
I think you're not seeing this very clearly. The issue is not be what happened at the start it's how he responded to it.
And how will millions of Americans see it? That he paid off a whore and lied to them about it? I think again you need to wonder how this will look to them...
The millions that think this is worthy of sending an ex president (and future candidate) to jail didn't and wouldn’t vote for him. No, it’s an absolute ballsup. If there are far more serious indictments down the line, it’s almost a conspiracy level error to have come out with this one first.
Are you saying New York should ignore a possible crime on the basis Georgia might later indict him for a more serious one? That isn't how the legal system works. States have both autonomy and the duty to prosecute their own crimes.
Weinstein springs to mind as another example - the more serious charges were actually in California. But New York went ahead, put him on trial and locked him up anyway.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
You think the inflamed boil of Trump supporters wouldn’t erupt if he was indicted for ‘something proper’? In any case the proper stuff is mounting up. My fave is the gross orange **** actually on record ordering a state official to find several thousand votes.
On Trump it is slightly bewildering that the indictment for retention of top secret documents is taking so long. There is no defence to that on the known facts.
"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer came storming back as the voter’s choice to be the Prime Minister with an incredible turnaround from last week, when he fell behind for the first time this year:
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
Surely on A), it is only proceeds of a crime (blackmail) by Stormy Daniels? I don't see what Trump is guilty of.
and C) may still be applicable.
If it's money paid for a crime, it's the proceeds of crime and therefore laundering.
To put it another way, since his correct course of action if she *was* blackmailing him was to have her arrested, and it's ludicrous to suggest he couldn't have done it given his enormous power and wealth, even if he is technically a victim he's made the wrong choices.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
Surely on A), it is only proceeds of a crime (blackmail) by Stormy Daniels? I don't see what Trump is guilty of.
and C) may still be applicable.
The objection seems to be making the 130grand tax deductible. So he says he was unaware of the payment from his company but is happy to pay 20 grand to correct the record. And in the meantime has rocket boosters put under his campaign.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
This is all true; but as he's grasped from the start, the hardcore MAGAs don't care about truth, criminality or anything; they'd support him if he literally tortured and killed their own children in front of them.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
Public figure sleeps with escort. Escort blackmails him for six figures. Public figure seeks to hide that he was blackmailed and goes to jail.
Is that about it?
Let's hope so...
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
Hilarious? Seems like a ridiculously inflammatory move to me. Doesn’t even sound like it should be a crime. Yuuge error not indicting him for something proper rather than this sham.
If he paid her money not to testify about a crime he had committed, or lied under oath about what he's done, he's committed a crime.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
I don’t have a dog in this race which perhaps means I can see things more clearly than you. Indicting him for giving into blackmail from a prozzer is a Lee Dixon-from-the/halfway-line level own goal by the US establishment. If they don’t have very strong evidence on actual serious crimes then they’ve just opened a pretty dangerous box
See above.
It was money from “his” company, not a public company right? You need to consider how this looks to tens of millions of Americans. The ones with the guns unfortunately.
The Trump Organization is still a company. There are still restrictions on what you can spend its money on. And in any case, false accounting and laundering money are crimes.
I think you're not seeing this very clearly. The issue is not be what happened at the start it's how he responded to it.
And how will millions of Americans see it? That he paid off a whore and lied to them about it? I think again you need to wonder how this will look to them...
The millions that think this is worthy of sending an ex president (and future candidate) to jail didn't and wouldn’t vote for him. No, it’s an absolute ballsup. If there are far more serious indictments down the line, it’s almost a conspiracy level error to have come out with this one first.
In the UK false accounting for campaign expenditure has sanctions on being able to stand for public office again. No idea if the US is the same but it may be that the penalties here are more significant than they would first appear.
On checking carefully, the alleged sequence of events is this:
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels. 2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject. 3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out. 4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee. 5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered B )He has taken money improperly from a company C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
I think the issue of the money being secretly used to help his election campaign is also significant - and perhaps a weakness if the case relies on it, Trump could argue that he has paid lots of people off to keep quiet even when he wasn't running for election.
Trump himself is very litigious - I think out of many the thousands of cases involving Trump, in more than half Trump (or one of his companies) was the plaintiff.
Disposable income increased in Q4 by 1.3% and looks set to go up again in Q1. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. Either people's pay rises are a lot higher than is being measured or real inflation for households is lower than is being measured.
That certainly matches up with my ridiculed anecdotal thoughts from a month ago. Discretionary spending seems to be robust..
With Trump, this surely is Good News for his campaign. For his supporters this is more evidence that government is corrupt and needs Trump to cleanse it. The allegations don't matter as they are all false, what matters is that someone has to stand up for their values over the government, and that man is Trump.
Remember the claim - "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". Likely true. And the same is true with this.
Comments
Inevitable with the change in demographics with longer lives, and decreasing fertility. It's only immigration that keeps the population pyramid stable.
It is a worldwide issue and with fertility rates now below 1 in parts of Asia like South Korea is going to be a big drag on economies that cannot adapt.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/22/south-koreas-birthrate-sinks-to-fresh-record-low-as-population-crisis-deepens
It may well be that world population peaks by 2050. Probably good for the planet, but requires adjustment to a lot of the ways we live and work.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go-off-as-feared-finds-study?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
While life expectancy is increasing, disability free life much less so. As well as working longer, we have to able to adapt workplaces appropriately.
Reference for disability free life expectancy being static or worsening, while life expectancy stagnated. Note these figures are pre-pandemic.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2018to2020
https://twitter.com/BMA_JuniorDocs/status/1641489891816091657?t=uiFYKJq66N93k3t1r4IhmQ&s=19
I was really hoping this would be the lead.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1641630739702636545
https://mobile.twitter.com/joshcarlosjosh/status/1641587442170974209
In 1908 when the State Pension was first introduced for those aged 70 and over, a woman of this age was expected to live on average an additional 9.3 years, and a man 8.4 years (1901), meaning pensions needed to last around 9 years. However, compare this to the latest figures and we see how pensions need to last longer. The current state pension age for men is 65 and for women it will reach 65 by November 2018. In 2011 men and women at this age were expected to live for approximately 20 more years, meaning we need to make our pensions last more than twice as long as when they were first introduced.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/articles/howhaslifeexpectancychangedovertime/2015-09-09
To me it shows that the wisdom in Lord Lawson's saying that a great deal of governing is telling the difficult from the disastrous. It is clearly very difficult to do and there's lots of luck involved. And, of course, even the luckiest politician will eventually run out - as Mrs Thatcher and Tony Blair did.
Don't get me wrong, I don't actually need to know what something is to form an opinion about it.
There's a fair explanation of the likely case here:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/30/trump-indictment-legal-faqs-00089864
It's not the strongest of cases which he might face.
But, from 60 onwards I shall certainly be working flexibly and part-time, if I can.
People live longer, pension age rises. Makes sense.
The dye is cast and people's minds are already made up.
Labour will win a landslide.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-falling-behind-other-countries-on-life-expectancy-measure-12834986
and:
https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o1056
Generally linked to the UK's slide in economic prosperity. Of the G7 countries only the USA is faring worse than the UK.
#MUKGA
In practice a lot of folk will be stopping work at the same age as now, but on disability benefit rather than pension.
Look at America. Or, Hungary (I believe) in the 1950s, after a crushed uprising. Economically, things grew significantly. Life expectancy declined, however.
Essentially my retirement plan already involves treating the stage pension like a helpful bonus and trying to get to a place where I can do it entirely on my private pension. I honestly don't know if the maths of that completely stack up but it seems increasingly dodgy to rely on the state pension.
Edit
Julius Caesar, who I believe said it originally, was clearly very sensible to go round already dressed in dark purple.
It shrouded oft our matyred dead...
Obviously should be washed seperately.
I’ve no idea whether it’s a misrepresentation or not. But you are asserting as a fact that Barclay did something wrong based purely on an allegation by his opponents
Admittedly on national income share that was actually slightly more generous than the current state pension, but in terms of its official value it’s less than a sixth of it.
I an not a BMA supporter BTW. I am in the HCSA.
However when you have two groups making contrary statements and one of them is a friend and colleague of Boris Johnson, you start with the assumption that that person is less likely to be telling the truth.
Between large numbers on leave for Easter, Ramadan, and decreasing goodwill from staff, it is proving quite hard to cover.
Parliament isn't sitting, and I am sure that Barclay's constituents could spare him for a day or two next week to have talks, but he seems to prefer confrontation.
https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/5085063/doing-laundry-right-way-separate-clothes-symbols/
Not as red as most folks think.
The BMA has said that is unacceptable and that they won’t move from their initial starting position of 35%
Both are putting preconditions on the meeting - actually both are already negotiating.
My criticism is not that (although I think the BMA is negotiating poorly). My criticism is that you immediately jumped to Barclay “misleading parliament”
I shall bid y'all good morning and a pleasant weekend.
xx
All else is Commie poo.
Although, TBF he did say his spelling was rubbish.
Is that about it?
Would be actually hilarious if Trump ended up in jail for one of his lesser crimes.
And remember, as with Al Capone it's not always what they've done but what you can prove at the right moment that counts.
You don’t pay them for sex, you pay them to go away in the morning - Charlie Sheen?
Trump apparently has evidence that the lawyer paid Stormy of his own volition, and therefore there’s no campaign finance violation.
1) Trump had sex with inter alia Stormy Daniels.
2) She was preparing a book/TV deal on the subject.
3) He paid her off instead to stop the details, er, coming out.
4) However, he embezzled that money from his company and paid it through a false nominee.
5) Which means he possibly has been blackmailed BUT
A) therefore that money is the proceeds of a crime and has been laundered
B )He has taken money improperly from a company
C) He is guilty of false accounting.
So in a stroke of sheer genius not given to all men he has turned what could have been a story of him as the victim into a story of he's committed a crime.
Very Donald Trump...
Given how that last sentence tails off I hope Mike is OK.
I think you're not seeing this very clearly. The issue is not be what happened at the start it's how he responded to it.
And how will millions of Americans see it? That he paid off a whore and lied to them about it? I think again you need to wonder how this will look to them...
Closes in July, worth doing if you’ve worked abroad or for any other reason taken an NI holiday.
The NY DA is a fervent Democrat
He wants to rile up Trump and the GOP base but not take him off the board
So you choose a minor case like this…
If the business had profits of $1m, he put through an expense of $100k hush money and therefor paid tax on profits of only $900k, that is a real crime unless he can show that the hush money was primarily for the business rather than his own ego, which is doubtful.
That precondition is unacceptable to the BMA so they're not willing to negotiate on that basis.
I assume that both parties are staking out a position favourable to themselves. I don’t have a dog in this hunt, so don’t have to “trust” or “distrust” either side
I suspect one of the reasons Joe wants to run again is he is worried he could be in the shit himself. Given one of his ex-associates has said on record Biden received payments from China and Ukraine via the whole Hunter Biden set up, Joe may have his own case to answer
PS before anyone goes tinfoil etc, you were all proven to be wrong when you claimed the whole Hunter laptop thing was a Russian plot so maybe best not to strain your credibility further.
It falls down a bit when you remember Trump had a reputation for hanging out with various whores and indeed their pimps including traffickers for years. Including Epstein. So it's hard to see how it could damage his reputation further even if she had told all.
and C) may still be applicable.
That precondition is unacceptable to the government so they’re not willing to negotiate on that basis
Weinstein springs to mind as another example - the more serious charges were actually in California. But New York went ahead, put him on trial and locked him up anyway.
And *then* he was tried in California.
In any case the proper stuff is mounting up. My fave is the gross orange **** actually on record ordering a state official to find several thousand votes.
To put it another way, since his correct course of action if she *was* blackmailing him was to have her arrested, and it's ludicrous to suggest he couldn't have done it given his enormous power and wealth, even if he is technically a victim he's made the wrong choices.
I still don't think he'll be next president - the normal people outnumber the crackers ones - but there's also a non-zero possibility of genuine armed uprisings and so on; worse than the 6th Jan one.
Trump himself is very litigious - I think out of many the thousands of cases involving Trump, in more than half Trump (or one of his companies) was the plaintiff.
Remember the claim - "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". Likely true. And the same is true with this.