One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
I've been struggling with my mental health on and off ever since Lockdown II, to the point where, to be honest with you, full time work is hard - and I may part-time it for the forseeable, at whatever cost that is to the economy and the exchequer vs what I was earning before.
I was actually starting to feel better this summer and considering a return to full time work, but I've been on the downward slide since October and the last couple of brutal weeks of weather have really rammed the depression home. It's hard at the moment to even get out of bed, let alone work.
My mental health has not been the same since lockdown and every day is a struggle. I've never tested positive for Covid, but I'm still suffering the effects of lockdown years later.
Wonder how many people there are out there like me.
Similar story here.
There was a post on my local subreddit just asking something like 'Anyone else suffering after lockdowns?' and there was an outpouring of people replying with all the - sometimes small, sometimes huge - mental health issues on the back of it. Sometimes just a little 'tick' like still washing their hands with sanitiser after touching something 'from the outside', sometimes people basically unable to leave home, sometimes.... on and on.
It was quite an eye-opening read.
It was the first time I'd been properly depressed.
Lockdown 3 was utterly miserable and should never have happened.
It also took an absurdly long time to end, and I really didn't give a shit by the end - I was ignoring it as much as I could.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
I've been struggling with my mental health on and off ever since Lockdown II, to the point where, to be honest with you, full time work is hard - and I may part-time it for the forseeable, at whatever cost that is to the economy and the exchequer vs what I was earning before.
I was actually starting to feel better this summer and considering a return to full time work, but I've been on the downward slide since October and the last couple of brutal weeks of weather have really rammed the depression home. It's hard at the moment to even get out of bed, let alone work.
My mental health has not been the same since lockdown and every day is a struggle. I've never tested positive for Covid, but I'm still suffering the effects of lockdown years later.
Wonder how many people there are out there like me.
Similar story here.
There was a post on my local subreddit just asking something like 'Anyone else suffering after lockdowns?' and there was an outpouring of people replying with all the - sometimes small, sometimes huge - mental health issues on the back of it. Sometimes just a little 'tick' like still washing their hands with sanitiser after touching something 'from the outside', sometimes people basically unable to leave home, sometimes.... on and on.
It was quite an eye-opening read.
I have quite a lot of sympathy for people saying it was a hard period and discussion/therapy is needed for healing. I have a lot less sympathy for people using it as a reason to say we should have allowed hundreds of thousands more deaths.
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
I'm a big fan of tidal, but I doubt if it would wean us off gas in anything but the fairly long term.
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
I'm a big fan of tidal, but I doubt if it would wean us off gas in anything but the fairly long term.
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
Glad you are onboard for some solar, wind and tide power. Not to mention nuclear.
There isn't enough oil or gas at any price, and the coal is inextracable at almost any price either.
I fancy France to win. Psychologically Argentina are in a bad place.
When the Netherlands did this to the Argies they went back to their defensive style. I don't think the French will, they look as if they have their second wind.
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
I'm a big fan of tidal, but I doubt if it would wean us off gas in anything but the fairly long term.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
I fancy France to win. Psychologically Argentina are in a bad place.
When the Netherlands did this to the Argies they went back to their defensive style. I don't think the French will, they look as if they have their second wind.
I’m a Markle skeptic, but Jeremy Clarkson’s despicable comments in the Sun have somehow pushed me into Camp Meghan.
Much of the article was spot on, she and her husband have spent the last week whinging like ungrateful brats from their California mansion for Netflix millions trashing the family that made them and even the British public.
They even had the audacity to mock the Kensington and Chelsea house they were gifted by the Queen
Yes we always had unimpeachable royals before an American with the wrong skin tone turned up. And I bet she didn't vote Trump!
I believe the biggest scandal is Markle's unprovoked attack on the Daily Mail and the Sun. Two of Britain's greatest bastions of truth.
I'm being snarky. If she and Harry brought the whole sorry edifice down, I'd doff my cap to 'em.
They won’t for starters both are almost as unpopular as Prince Andrew with the British public now.
Plus without their royal links they are just a dim ex captain with poor A levels and a C- list actress
You are comparing the alleged villainy of a man accused of sex offences with a couple who have a beef with the Daily Mail and are critical of the palace for not being supportive.
Anyway what's his educational qualifications got to do with anything? And correct me if I am wrong but this mere Captain saw more hostile fire than you did in Afghanistan.
Really? I’d be very surprised if Harry was let anywhere near the enemy
He flew 100 missions, mostly operating the weapons systems as co-pilot, including close combat air support:
There has to be a slight question mark on that if he says he was scared by his brother's shouting.
A former very senior officer of the Royal Navy once told me that having played tag with Brezhnev's subs throughout the 1970s he'd never been more scared in his life than when a maths teacher got mad at him in a meeting about school finances.
It wasn't until much later that he explained this was partly because he knew one of the other people in the room, who stands 6 ft 4 and is built in proportion, was frequently physically violent and was triggered by people shouting.
Why would a submariner getting violent make people on the same sub be less scared?
I fancy France to win. Psychologically Argentina are in a bad place.
When the Netherlands did this to the Argies they went back to their defensive style. I don't think the French will, they look as if they have their second wind.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Mad game. What a tournament this has been. So often the final is a poor game.
Setting apart the rottenness of Qatar’s bid and associated hosting issues - from a purely footballing POV this has been a belter of a tournament. I loved 2014 and 2006 too (and 94, but mostly because that was the first tournament I really got into).
I’m a Markle skeptic, but Jeremy Clarkson’s despicable comments in the Sun have somehow pushed me into Camp Meghan.
Much of the article was spot on, she and her husband have spent the last week whinging like ungrateful brats from their California mansion for Netflix millions trashing the family that made them and even the British public.
They even had the audacity to mock the Kensington and Chelsea house they were gifted by the Queen
Yes we always had unimpeachable royals before an American with the wrong skin tone turned up. And I bet she didn't vote Trump!
I believe the biggest scandal is Markle's unprovoked attack on the Daily Mail and the Sun. Two of Britain's greatest bastions of truth.
I'm being snarky. If she and Harry brought the whole sorry edifice down, I'd doff my cap to 'em.
They won’t for starters both are almost as unpopular as Prince Andrew with the British public now.
Plus without their royal links they are just a dim ex captain with poor A levels and a C- list actress
You are comparing the alleged villainy of a man accused of sex offences with a couple who have a beef with the Daily Mail and are critical of the palace for not being supportive.
Anyway what's his educational qualifications got to do with anything? And correct me if I am wrong but this mere Captain saw more hostile fire than you did in Afghanistan.
Really? I’d be very surprised if Harry was let anywhere near the enemy
He flew 100 missions, mostly operating the weapons systems as co-pilot, including close combat air support:
There has to be a slight question mark on that if he says he was scared by his brother's shouting.
A former very senior officer of the Royal Navy once told me that having played tag with Brezhnev's subs throughout the 1970s he'd never been more scared in his life than when a maths teacher got mad at him in a meeting about school finances.
It wasn't until much later that he explained this was partly because he knew one of the other people in the room, who stands 6 ft 4 and is built in proportion, was frequently physically violent and was triggered by people shouting.
Why would a submariner getting violent make people on the same sub be less scared?
It wasn't a submariner that would be getting potentially violent.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
I’m a Markle skeptic, but Jeremy Clarkson’s despicable comments in the Sun have somehow pushed me into Camp Meghan.
Much of the article was spot on, she and her husband have spent the last week whinging like ungrateful brats from their California mansion for Netflix millions trashing the family that made them and even the British public.
They even had the audacity to mock the Kensington and Chelsea house they were gifted by the Queen
Yes we always had unimpeachable royals before an American with the wrong skin tone turned up. And I bet she didn't vote Trump!
I believe the biggest scandal is Markle's unprovoked attack on the Daily Mail and the Sun. Two of Britain's greatest bastions of truth.
I'm being snarky. If she and Harry brought the whole sorry edifice down, I'd doff my cap to 'em.
They won’t for starters both are almost as unpopular as Prince Andrew with the British public now.
Plus without their royal links they are just a dim ex captain with poor A levels and a C- list actress
You are comparing the alleged villainy of a man accused of sex offences with a couple who have a beef with the Daily Mail and are critical of the palace for not being supportive.
Anyway what's his educational qualifications got to do with anything? And correct me if I am wrong but this mere Captain saw more hostile fire than you did in Afghanistan.
Really? I’d be very surprised if Harry was let anywhere near the enemy
He flew 100 missions, mostly operating the weapons systems as co-pilot, including close combat air support:
There has to be a slight question mark on that if he says he was scared by his brother's shouting.
A former very senior officer of the Royal Navy once told me that having played tag with Brezhnev's subs throughout the 1970s he'd never been more scared in his life than when a maths teacher got mad at him in a meeting about school finances.
It wasn't until much later that he explained this was partly because he knew one of the other people in the room, who stands 6 ft 4 and is built in proportion, was frequently physically violent and was triggered by people shouting.
Why would a submariner getting violent make people on the same sub be less scared?
It wasn't a submariner that would be getting potentially violent.
Which kind of glue should I use to stick your leg back on?
Mad game. What a tournament this has been. So often the final is a poor game.
Setting apart the rottenness of Qatar’s bid and associated hosting issues - from a purely footballing POV this has been a belter of a tournament. I loved 2014 and 2006 too (and 94, but mostly because that was the first tournament I really got into).
Yes, a lot to be said for a Winter World Cup to widen possible hosts.
I’m a Markle skeptic, but Jeremy Clarkson’s despicable comments in the Sun have somehow pushed me into Camp Meghan.
Much of the article was spot on, she and her husband have spent the last week whinging like ungrateful brats from their California mansion for Netflix millions trashing the family that made them and even the British public.
They even had the audacity to mock the Kensington and Chelsea house they were gifted by the Queen
Yes we always had unimpeachable royals before an American with the wrong skin tone turned up. And I bet she didn't vote Trump!
I believe the biggest scandal is Markle's unprovoked attack on the Daily Mail and the Sun. Two of Britain's greatest bastions of truth.
I'm being snarky. If she and Harry brought the whole sorry edifice down, I'd doff my cap to 'em.
They won’t for starters both are almost as unpopular as Prince Andrew with the British public now.
Plus without their royal links they are just a dim ex captain with poor A levels and a C- list actress
You are comparing the alleged villainy of a man accused of sex offences with a couple who have a beef with the Daily Mail and are critical of the palace for not being supportive.
Anyway what's his educational qualifications got to do with anything? And correct me if I am wrong but this mere Captain saw more hostile fire than you did in Afghanistan.
Really? I’d be very surprised if Harry was let anywhere near the enemy
He flew 100 missions, mostly operating the weapons systems as co-pilot, including close combat air support:
There has to be a slight question mark on that if he says he was scared by his brother's shouting.
A former very senior officer of the Royal Navy once told me that having played tag with Brezhnev's subs throughout the 1970s he'd never been more scared in his life than when a maths teacher got mad at him in a meeting about school finances.
It wasn't until much later that he explained this was partly because he knew one of the other people in the room, who stands 6 ft 4 and is built in proportion, was frequently physically violent and was triggered by people shouting.
Why would a submariner getting violent make people on the same sub be less scared?
It wasn't a submariner that would be getting potentially violent.
Which kind of glue should I use to stick your leg back on?
I tend to use gorilla glue, on the basis it's a bugger for pulling off.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Jesus really got it wrong, didn't he?
"Judge as many people as you can at every opportunity. It gives you such a warm feeling of smug superiority."
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
It is still worth looking at what is most effective at supporting Ukraine, and what was less useful.
Of course. But we know that’s not our Putin-loving companion’s objective
I find it rather pathetic when having a fairly reasoned debate with questions and answers back and forth, when 'Putin-loving' gets dusted down. It signals a great lack of confidence in your own argument.
You are an apologist for an evil regime.
“On the one hand, on the other… it’s only fair to take Russian lies at face value until they are disproven… maybe MH17 wasn’t actually shot down by them…”
Motives matter.
Meanwhile the actual professional on the site is (usually) a lot more subtle about it.
But I think I do understand LuckyGuy’s world view. In my book it’s a category error: it’s founded on the idea “they’re all as bad as each other” and the US is an international bully that needs counterbalancing. This leads to a form of realpolitik. I get that, but I think it presupposes Russia is fundamentally just a flawed but normal state. I don’t think it is.
It is not an assumption that Russia is better than it is. It is a dispassionate assessment of its relative threat to the UK, starting from the perspective that the purpose of the UK State is to promote the security, wellbeing and prosperity of UK citizens.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
I've been struggling with my mental health on and off ever since Lockdown II, to the point where, to be honest with you, full time work is hard - and I may part-time it for the forseeable, at whatever cost that is to the economy and the exchequer vs what I was earning before.
I was actually starting to feel better this summer and considering a return to full time work, but I've been on the downward slide since October and the last couple of brutal weeks of weather have really rammed the depression home. It's hard at the moment to even get out of bed, let alone work.
My mental health has not been the same since lockdown and every day is a struggle. I've never tested positive for Covid, but I'm still suffering the effects of lockdown years later.
Wonder how many people there are out there like me.
Similar story here.
There was a post on my local subreddit just asking something like 'Anyone else suffering after lockdowns?' and there was an outpouring of people replying with all the - sometimes small, sometimes huge - mental health issues on the back of it. Sometimes just a little 'tick' like still washing their hands with sanitiser after touching something 'from the outside', sometimes people basically unable to leave home, sometimes.... on and on.
It was quite an eye-opening read.
It was the first time I'd been properly depressed.
Lockdown 3 was utterly miserable and should never have happened.
It also took an absurdly long time to end, and I really didn't give a shit by the end - I was ignoring it as much as I could.
Yes, me too. First time I've had to seek medical help for my mental state. Thiugh happily having done so I made a fairly swift recovery amd have been on, if anything, a steadier keel since. It wasn't covid itself, so much as the determination by various parties to keep locking down on the flimsiest of pretences. It felt like lockdown was a solution searching for a problem. It felt like there were a lot of people, includinh many in power, who were determined to effect a significant transfer of powers from individual to state and had spied the perfect oppprtunity to do so with the backing of the population.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
I've been struggling with my mental health on and off ever since Lockdown II, to the point where, to be honest with you, full time work is hard - and I may part-time it for the forseeable, at whatever cost that is to the economy and the exchequer vs what I was earning before.
I was actually starting to feel better this summer and considering a return to full time work, but I've been on the downward slide since October and the last couple of brutal weeks of weather have really rammed the depression home. It's hard at the moment to even get out of bed, let alone work.
My mental health has not been the same since lockdown and every day is a struggle. I've never tested positive for Covid, but I'm still suffering the effects of lockdown years later.
Wonder how many people there are out there like me.
Similar story here.
There was a post on my local subreddit just asking something like 'Anyone else suffering after lockdowns?' and there was an outpouring of people replying with all the - sometimes small, sometimes huge - mental health issues on the back of it. Sometimes just a little 'tick' like still washing their hands with sanitiser after touching something 'from the outside', sometimes people basically unable to leave home, sometimes.... on and on.
It was quite an eye-opening read.
Yep. I've had similar conversations with friends and the mental health cost of lockdown looks high.
A friend teaches at uni and noted how the 19 year olds feel more like 16 year olds, in terms of their development, emotionally speaking.
I think it's going to take a while for the mental health costs of lockdown to be recognised, but once they are, it will be widely accepted that they are much greater than the costs of contracting a disease not much worse than the flu.
And we haven't even started counting the economic costs (Hint: There's a reason why inflation is 11%)
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
She is by her own admission, a participant in rape and the slave trade. With a side order of war crimes. While being, herself, an adult.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
I've been struggling with my mental health on and off ever since Lockdown II, to the point where, to be honest with you, full time work is hard - and I may part-time it for the forseeable, at whatever cost that is to the economy and the exchequer vs what I was earning before.
I was actually starting to feel better this summer and considering a return to full time work, but I've been on the downward slide since October and the last couple of brutal weeks of weather have really rammed the depression home. It's hard at the moment to even get out of bed, let alone work.
My mental health has not been the same since lockdown and every day is a struggle. I've never tested positive for Covid, but I'm still suffering the effects of lockdown years later.
Wonder how many people there are out there like me.
Similar story here.
There was a post on my local subreddit just asking something like 'Anyone else suffering after lockdowns?' and there was an outpouring of people replying with all the - sometimes small, sometimes huge - mental health issues on the back of it. Sometimes just a little 'tick' like still washing their hands with sanitiser after touching something 'from the outside', sometimes people basically unable to leave home, sometimes.... on and on.
It was quite an eye-opening read.
Yep. I've had similar conversations with friends and the mental health cost of lockdown looks high.
A friend teaches at uni and noted how the 19 year olds feel more like 16 year olds, in terms of their development, emotionally speaking.
I think it's going to take a while for the mental health costs of lockdown to be recognised, but once they are, it will be widely accepted that they are much greater than the costs of contracting a disease not much worse than the flu.
And we haven't even started counting the economic costs (Hint: There's a reason why inflation is 11%)
I heard the same from a professorial friend. Says the covid cohort is borderline retarded
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
Glad you are onboard for some solar, wind and tide power. Not to mention nuclear.
There isn't enough oil or gas at any price, and the coal is inextracable at almost any price either.
I am very much on board with tidal.
Wind we must make the best of, as we now have so f***ing much of it. We need storage now, pumped hydro in Wales and Scotland for a start. Cut off contraint payments and watch how fast we get storage.
Nuclear I find concerning, given events in Ukraine, Japan etc.
Solar I'm happy with it on buildings etc., but solar farms I don't think have a future in the UK. I am pretty sure the only avowedly 'unsubsidised' solar farm in the UK just went tits up. Putting floating ones on reservoirs is quite a cute idea.
We also need more waste from energy - we should be burning 100% of non recyclable waste, not 75%.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
And you're talking about grit in the same breath as cheerleading the state.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
She is by her own admission, a participant in rape and the slave trade. With a side order of war crimes. While being, herself, an adult.
And many of the groomed girls in Rotherham etc helped groom others.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
OK, let's make it purely about health. It looks pretty likely to me that farore life years will be lost as a result of lockdowns - the opportunities missed, the impoverishment brought, the negative health impacts, the ability to fund a future health servuce forgone - than would havebeen lost directly as extra excess deaths from not locking down ( not least because lockdown was a pretty blunt tool for preventing deaths). I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
What about the teenagers in 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend? Groomed certainly. Enthusiastic war criminals, equally certain.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
OK, let's make it purely about health. It looks pretty likely to me that farore life years will be lost as a result of lockdowns - the opportunities missed, the impoverishment brought, the negative health impacts, the ability to fund a future health servuce forgone - than would havebeen lost directly as extra excess deaths from not locking down ( not least because lockdown was a pretty blunt tool for preventing deaths). I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
The health service did not lockdown, it pivoted and redeployed. The adverse health impacts are because of the disease (and underlying capacity issues) not lockdown.
The psychiatrist working as an ICU nurse wasn't running a mental health service, but wasn't locked down.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
She is by her own admission, a participant in rape and the slave trade. With a side order of war crimes. While being, herself, an adult.
And many of the groomed girls in Rotherham etc helped groom others.
It's complicated in reality.
And those girls that groomed others, knowing what they were facilitating and not under coercion, don't deserve our sympathy. Which was the situation for Begum.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
She is by her own admission, a participant in rape and the slave trade. With a side order of war crimes. While being, herself, an adult.
And many of the groomed girls in Rotherham etc helped groom others.
It's complicated in reality.
Do you think Thomas Mair or that bloke that shot the people in the Christchurch Mosque were groomed?
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
OK, let's make it purely about health. It looks pretty likely to me that farore life years will be lost as a result of lockdowns - the opportunities missed, the impoverishment brought, the negative health impacts, the ability to fund a future health servuce forgone - than would havebeen lost directly as extra excess deaths from not locking down ( not least because lockdown was a pretty blunt tool for preventing deaths). I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
Can't imagine why the government never commissioned one.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
What about the teenagers in 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend? Groomed certainly. Enthusiastic war criminals, equally certain.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
The fact she has a "story" is down to good PR.
She wouldn't even have a podcast on BBC sounds were there not people helping her.
She doesn't have a podcast.
An investigative journalist has a podcast about her, including interviews.
She doesn't have editorial control.
And she will have been advised what to say and how to say it, just as she's done throughout her numerous appeals, by those close to her and helping her. For all we know they brokered the investigative journalist to do the podcast series interviews with her.
To suggest this is just happenstance stretches credibility, I'm afraid.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
What about the teenagers in 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend? Groomed certainly. Enthusiastic war criminals, equally certain.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
OK, let's make it purely about health. It looks pretty likely to me that farore life years will be lost as a result of lockdowns - the opportunities missed, the impoverishment brought, the negative health impacts, the ability to fund a future health servuce forgone - than would havebeen lost directly as extra excess deaths from not locking down ( not least because lockdown was a pretty blunt tool for preventing deaths). I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
The health service did not lockdown, it pivoted and redeployed. .
That's an interesting way of spinning "the NHS became the National Covid Service".
What evidence is there the uk security services knew before she went? I might have missed this?
AFAIK, the Canadians had a paid informer who was a people smuggler, but they were playing every side so not trustworthy, and they were the ones that took her to Syria.
Once she was there the UK security services became aware of her and have many instances of terrible things she was allegedly involved in.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
I’m more sympathetic than most to Shamima Begum but this analogy is really inappropriate.
Vulnerable kids get ‘groomed’ for many different purposes - criminal gangs being another one - but the institutional blind eye turned to the poor girls in Rotherham and all the many other places was a colossal failure of the state and society. There is still nowhere near enough outrage about this. There should be prison terms.
I am not sure why the PB consensus seems to be that we should no longer even subject our foreign policy toward Ukraine to any form of cost/benefit analysis. It would be a colossal dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to analyse this. If the reason is humanitarian, can anyone tell me why it's perfectly acceptable to leave Afghans to the tender mercies of the Taliban?
There’s no point because the strategic costs of Russia winning a so horrendous that it is a waste of time analysing. We are all in.
How do you work that one out? Russian 'victory' even over the entirety of Ukraine would mean possession for Russia of a rebellious, resentful colony with a population that largely detests it. It would be a deeply unfortunate outcome but not one where I can see any unthinkable strategic cost to UK interests.
Do you think the Russians would stop there?
I am sure factions within Russia would want to carry on invading places, and other factions would want to consolidate its gains. It is also highly probable in that instance that the West would sponsor a Ukrainian resistance movement and the status of Ukraine as Russian would not be settled for decades if ever. The nations surrounding Russian Ukraine would also end up being heavily garrisoned by NATO forces. None of that is satisfactory, but it isn't a doomsday scenario for Britain either.
What I am afraid is a doomsday scenario is energy prices at their current levels, which simply make our economy unworkable - unable to compete with other economies. That will just eviscerate us and leave us incapable of fighting Russia or anyone else.
Except that energy prices are now falling on the world markets. Especially LNG futures.
I am pleased and relieved to hear that. I can only imagine how dynamic our economy would be if energy prices were at US levels. It is the crux of everything.
No, not everything. It is a considerable impact on short term economics though. Which is why depending on Russia is for lunatics.
The fall is caused by more US operations coming back on line, various LNG projects coming on line and a flood of new* LNG tanker are entering the market.
*The initial batches are reconditioned tankers and existing construction that has been accelerated. The first all new LNG tankers from the wave sparked by the Ukraine war are still building.
Depending on anyone else is lunacy. And unnecessary.
Glad you are onboard for some solar, wind and tide power. Not to mention nuclear.
There isn't enough oil or gas at any price, and the coal is inextracable at almost any price either.
I am very much on board with tidal.
Wind we must make the best of, as we now have so f***ing much of it. We need storage now, pumped hydro in Wales and Scotland for a start. Cut off contraint payments and watch how fast we get storage.
Nuclear I find concerning, given events in Ukraine, Japan etc.
Solar I'm happy with it on buildings etc., but solar farms I don't think have a future in the UK. I am pretty sure the only avowedly 'unsubsidised' solar farm in the UK just went tits up. Putting floating ones on reservoirs is quite a cute idea.
We also need more waste from energy - we should be burning 100% of non recyclable waste, not 75%.
Yes, I think that's about right. Though I'd note that only about one house in 20 has solar panels. And still in June we manage to produce around 10% of our electricity ftom solar (I think?). Even in unsunny Britain, we have the potential to be pretty much self-sufficient in electricity between March and October from Solar alone.
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
She is by her own admission, a participant in rape and the slave trade. With a side order of war crimes. While being, herself, an adult.
And many of the groomed girls in Rotherham etc helped groom others.
It's complicated in reality.
Do you think Thomas Mair or that bloke that shot the people in the Christchurch Mosque were groomed?
I have no idea as I don't know their back story, but quite possibly so.
One problem with voluntary lockdown is what we saw time and again in the UK, given half an inch people were very quick to make full use of any relaxations, while always taking advantage of those until the very last second (remember all the people piling down the pubs on the night each night it was announced they would have to be closed).
Basically by the time people really got scared during each wave it was already too late and it was well spread...people reacted when their WhatsApp groups starting pinging that yet another member had COVID, which is too late because you probably now have it too.
After the initial lockdown, I think we need to have a set of rules that we just stuck with i.e. none of this moving between tiers / in and out of lockdowns.
Questions around schools I think are the really valid things. Yes kids will have spread it among themselves, but all that disruption for 2 years have caused so much damage.
We must never have any types of lockdowns ever again IMO. If vulnerable people want to isolate themselves, they can choose to do so.
Indeed. And we are only now just beginning to see the damage they have done. To everything. From mental health to cancer care to kids educations to public finances to city centres to public services - and on and on
I wonder what history will make of us, and this
Kids education is the only one that could possibly be considered a greater cost than an extra 100-200k+ dead, which would have happened with no lockdown.
Lockdown was the correct policy, though we should probably have not applied it to kids education.
As for all this mental health complaining, whatever happened to having a bit of grit? Mental health can recover. People can't come back from the dead.
I’m guessing you are one of those introverts with a proper house and garden and family at hand. Like so many of the lockdown fans
The psychological damage wrought by lockdown is enormous
I am an extrovert and the only socializing I did for about a year was sitting across the street from my neighbours in deckchairs. Yes, I have a family, but looking after a baby and a toddler with no parental or babysitter support made lockdown harder not easier.
I am not a "fan" of lockdown in the same way I would not have been a "fan" of blackouts during the Blitz. I do, however, accept that mental hardship is not a greater cost than being dead. Which is what people ranting at the state were happy for others to do rather than face some adversity themselves.
The dead would have been mainly old fat unhealthy people
We shattered and impoverished society to save a bunch of 80 year olds. It was a disastrous error
You're making a great case for killing a load of old people so you can have a better time.
OK, let's make it purely about health. It looks pretty likely to me that farore life years will be lost as a result of lockdowns - the opportunities missed, the impoverishment brought, the negative health impacts, the ability to fund a future health servuce forgone - than would havebeen lost directly as extra excess deaths from not locking down ( not least because lockdown was a pretty blunt tool for preventing deaths). I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
The health service did not lockdown, it pivoted and redeployed. .
That's an interesting way of spinning "the NHS became the National Covid Service".
Of course! Didn't you know there was a pandemic that impacted on elective care?
I doubt that. She is a story, and whether it is sympathetic or not we'll have to wait to find out.
I still find it astonishing the number of people who simultaneously believe 16 year olds are mature enough to choose governments but 15 year olds aren't mature enough to know that torturers and sex slavers are bad.
Previously, she was being used by a group of people for their own ends - she willingly participated, though
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
Was she groomed more or less than the teenage girls of Rotherham?
What a fucking disgraceful analogy
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
Indeed. And many victims of such horrific behaviour regard with disgust the whole "But I was a victim tooooo" stuff.
Many too refused to give evidence against their "boyfriends". Groomers suck people in and gaslight them.
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
What about the teenagers in 12th SS Panzer Division Hitlerjugend? Groomed certainly. Enthusiastic war criminals, equally certain.
Yes, as I said, reality is complicated.
The Cultural Revolution too. States and warlords have long used kids to do nasty stuff. Look at the endless mess in D.R. Congo and its neighbours.
Comments
Lockdown 3 was utterly miserable and should never have happened.
It also took an absurdly long time to end, and I really didn't give a shit by the end - I was ignoring it as much as I could.
There isn't enough oil or gas at any price, and the coal is inextracable at almost any price either.
When the Netherlands did this to the Argies they went back to their defensive style. I don't think the French will, they look as if they have their second wind.
And that goes for sport too.
(Except cricket, obvs.)
Setting apart the rottenness of Qatar’s bid and associated hosting issues - from a purely footballing POV this has been a belter of a tournament. I loved 2014 and 2006 too (and 94, but mostly because that was the first tournament I really got into).
She is now being used by a group of people for their own ends - and she is still a willing participant.
"Judge as many people as you can at every opportunity. It gives you such a warm feeling of smug superiority."
She wouldn't even have a podcast on BBC sounds were there not people helping her.
2 Arg
2 Fr
Begum willingly joined a death cult of rapists and had a Yazidi sex slave in her house. And said she did not regret it years later
The girls of Rotherham and around the UK were raped and tortured continuously over many years as the police looked the other way
It wasn't covid itself, so much as the determination by various parties to keep locking down on the flimsiest of pretences. It felt like lockdown was a solution searching for a problem. It felt like there were a lot of people, includinh many in power, who were determined to effect a significant transfer of powers from individual to state and had spied the perfect oppprtunity to do so with the backing of the population.
A friend teaches at uni and noted how the 19 year olds feel more like 16 year olds, in terms of their development, emotionally speaking.
I think it's going to take a while for the mental health costs of lockdown to be recognised, but once they are, it will be widely accepted that they are much greater than the costs of contracting a disease not much worse than the flu.
And we haven't even started counting the economic costs (Hint: There's a reason why inflation is 11%)
Begum was certainly groomed, and it does seem as if our security services knew and turned a blind eye.
Whether she can ever be other than a damaged person and security risk we cannot know.
Your bet is currently worth £50.
Wind we must make the best of, as we now have so f***ing much of it. We need storage now, pumped hydro in Wales and Scotland for a start. Cut off contraint payments and watch how fast we get storage.
Nuclear I find concerning, given events in Ukraine, Japan etc.
Solar I'm happy with it on buildings etc., but solar farms I don't think have a future in the UK. I am pretty sure the only avowedly 'unsubsidised' solar farm in the UK just went tits up. Putting floating ones on reservoirs is quite a cute idea.
We also need more waste from energy - we should be burning 100% of non recyclable waste, not 75%.
It's complicated in reality.
I'venot seen any attempt at a thorough analysis, though.
An investigative journalist has a podcast about her, including interviews.
She doesn't have editorial control.
That’s what Begum watched and still went to Syria
The psychiatrist working as an ICU nurse wasn't running a mental health service, but wasn't locked down.
To suggest this is just happenstance stretches credibility, I'm afraid.
AFAIK, the Canadians had a paid informer who was a people smuggler, but they were playing every side so not trustworthy, and they were the ones that took her to Syria.
Once she was there the UK security services became aware of her and have many instances of terrible things she was allegedly involved in.
Other than that, have I missed something?
Vulnerable kids get ‘groomed’ for many different purposes - criminal gangs being another one - but the institutional blind eye turned to the poor girls in Rotherham and all the many other places was a colossal failure of the state and society. There is still nowhere near enough outrage about this. There should be prison terms.
Though I'd note that only about one house in 20 has solar panels. And still in June we manage to produce around 10% of our electricity ftom solar (I think?). Even in unsunny Britain, we have the potential to be pretty much self-sufficient in electricity between March and October from Solar alone.
6 goals for golden shoe winner, which should be par for that contest.
Now, I can level up!