I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.
Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.
He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.
They are already playing out their plan...
Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.
The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.
Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
£150m isn't going to make any difference to the level of debt Morrisons now has.
And unless I'm mistaken the plans to sell off food manufacturing and the other bits that made Morrisons decent have failed to find buyers stupid enough to pay the prices being asked.
You misunderstand....the £150 million is just the start, that was just 5 supermarkets. They own 86% of the ~500 sites their supermarkets are on, that's billions. I believe they also own a load of prime warehousing sites, which with Brexit / Global Supply Chain issues etc, are in demand.
Now their plan might be shafted in the short term because of upcoming global recession, but they don't make new land so they probably won't really lose out long term.
Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?
Yes, that’s a different question
The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool
I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
100%. Well said.
I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.
The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?
Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale
It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
This is just Northern Powerhouse Rail mate. Discussed at length on here in the past (particularly links to HS2 and going over to Hull, I think).
Indeed. But I’ve only just grasped how much it makes sense
Generally I don’t get involved in PB railway infrastructure debates. Not my field
I think everyone ploughs whichever field (ahem) they wish.
I'm only really knowledgeable on Scottish mountains, child poverty and cycle infrastructure.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel; especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
This OBR is useless. This report is useless. It’s vague as anything. It’s complete waste of paper it’s printed on.
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?
No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k
Shocking
Hunt cannot afford to pay everyone’s fuel bills. Nor can the tax payer. The current scheme is not sustainable so more of the costs have to be borne by households not on benefits.
Unless he properly raised taxes, on wealth as well as income on those who actually have massively broad shoulders
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel; especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
This OBR is useless. This report is useless. It’s vague as anything. It’s complete waste of paper it’s printed on.
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
How are they supposed to forecast energy prices though?
I'm currently reading the report. A few pages in, going to take a while to take it all in. Not sure how you've got through it so quickly.
Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.
Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.
He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.
They are already playing out their plan...
Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.
The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.
Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
£150m isn't going to make any difference to the level of debt Morrisons now has.
And unless I'm mistaken the plans to sell off food manufacturing and the other bits that made Morrisons decent have failed to find buyers stupid enough to pay the prices being asked.
You misunderstand....the £150 million is just the start, that was just 5 supermarkets. They own 86% of the ~500 sites their supermarkets are on, that's billions. I believe they also own a load of prime warehousing sites, which with Brexit / Global Supply Chain issues etc, are in demand.
Now their plan might be shafted in the short term because of upcoming global recession, but they don't make new land so they probably won't really lose out long term.
As you say, that sounds as if Morrisons will be disembowelled. Our local one is still really excellent in many ways.
Since (I think) they still have a balance towards the North, that may be terminal.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Big suspicion is, what good news there is got announced in speech, first impressions matter so they are shaping the first impressions. More controversial things like the Defence Budget cut you flagged, hidden away in the budget wording, or not even clearly there, it needs someone to ask the right question to have the way forward explained publicly.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
It sounds very "first do not harm (or as little as possible)" which shouldn't be noteworthy but is.
I don't think the GBP will thank the government for their responsibility, and it's really hard to see how the public spending limits will stick.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Gruel prices of more interest to non pensioners not on means tested benefits
I suspect that will have gone up by 25% too given the price of oats, wheat, rye
Of course now I have joined the Golden Generation it should not really be of interest to me
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
It's astonishing the number of things which were so consistently priced for so long. Boots meal deals, for example. In the first 20 years of the century they must have inflated by no more than 10%.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Yeah. Same around here.
Their business is at the intersection of all the biggest cost pressures in the economy.
Massive labour shortage for part time hours low wage staff, pushing hourly wages up a lot.
Energy prices
Fish and cooking oil prices
It’s minimum £10 for cod & chips, everywhere. Even mini/smaller, or cheaper “white fish” and chips are minimum £6, double what it was, pre-pandemic.
Loads have gone out of business, here in the WM. I assume it’s the same story nationwide.
I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade
I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!
The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck
Why all the fuss?
You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
No I didn’t. I said it was a truck
I might have explored other possibilities - as one should - but I never wavered from thinking a truck was most likely. Because it is. Occam’s razor
This is such a bizarre argument. I can’t even remember why some PBers were so religiously attached to alternative explanations. It’s not like it changes anything
If it was a clever SBS style waterborne attack that is highly impressive. And suggests that Ukraine might have been responsible the the Nordstream explosion
Lol. It’s really a bug up your arse that I’m better at this stuff than you, isn’t it?
As I said, I entertained other possibilities (as one should) but anyone who reads that thread will know that I was fairly sure it was a truck
“Leon
The FT article (££) is quite persuasive that it was probably a truck, driven from Russia. That’s the conclusion of analysts, including some Ukrainians
The second possibility is a missile, but that seems less likely
The article also makes the point that the Ukes will want to blur the picture to confuse and confound Moscow”
Leon said: » show previous quotes “You’ve all gone completely mad. The idea it was a truck bomb is not some crazy Russian lie. It’s regarded as the most likely explanation, but we just don’t know. Here’s the FT today. Is it in the pay of Putin?”
Leon:
“There is no certainty from me. I’ve said a truck bomb is seen by many as the “most likely” explanation, but we just don’t know, and of course it could be several different things - truck bomb AND special forces”
Leon:
“The more interesting point is that PB hysteria has reached the stage when merely saying "a truck bomb is a likely explanation, but we don't know" apparently makes you a Muscovite shill and a fucking appeaser”
Gilt yields ticking a bit higher and pound dropping a bit now as investors start to wonder if absolutely milking the productive part of your economy to avoid making politically tough choices is really such a good idea https://twitter.com/John_Stepek/status/1593229445644505088
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
Some on here think she is marvellous
Well quite.
Similarly to algarkirk, I’m a long-time Tory voter planning to vote Labour next time, but the Labour front bench doesn’t always make it easy for me to adhere to this decision. Pat McFadden, Shadow Chief Secretary, who I imagine would agree with me that the Truss/Kwarteng budget got what it deserved, was on TV this morning telling us all that the markets would be entirely relaxed if only unfunded borrowing were used for a public spending splurge instead of for tax cuts.
Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?
Yes, that’s a different question
The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool
I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
100%. Well said.
I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.
The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?
Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale
It would also be pretty popular in some marginal
constituencies…
I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.
Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
Forgive me for not keeping up with the politics of this, but…
Isn’t the main stumbling block that we need to build a big expensive tunnel under the Pennines?
Is this bit, now, being funded?
Perhaps.
The problem with NPR is that it can mean one of a number of things.
In its current form, the bits across the Pennines are simply using existing alignments via Hope Valley and Diggle.
There are other proposals, though. And if NPR goes to Bradford - which was once the preferred solution and now appears to be swinging back in favour - that implies, if not a massive tunnel, then some pretty expensive and non-straightforward engineering.
Worth saying though that tunnelling isn't actually that expensive. Ideally of course you'd just build a railway over a featureless plain, but once you get to the stage of having to address ownerships, demolitions, watercourses, landscape features, utilities, local pressure groups, environmental designations ... just putting it underground starts to look a lot less unattractive.
EDIT: However Hunt appears to be confirming 'core' NPR rather than 'full' NPR which I infer as Manchester-Leeds via the existing Diggle route rather than via Bradford.
We've had so many U-turns on NPR it is just ridiculous. I suspect what we are getting is a slightly beefed-up version of the current upgrade of the existing Manc - Hudds - Leeds line, and nothing else. Bradford? Forget it. You've got City of Culture, what more do you want?
At the moment, it would be nice if Trans-Pennine Express could just operate something approximating to the timetabled service. And get some more Cats in service.
Higher net migration underpins OBR growth forecast. =Without these workers, Britain would face even bigger tax rises and deeper spending cuts. =Having accepted this economic reality, ministers must speak honestly to voters about economic benefits of immigration. https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1593229998055649280/photo/1
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel; especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
This OBR is useless. This report is useless. It’s vague as anything. It’s complete waste of paper it’s printed on.
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
So can you accurately forecast gas prices for the next twelve months ?
It's not useless at all, but government spending contingent on market prices is by its nature as hard to predict as are those energy prices. Spending and income are dynamically modelled on an ongoing basis, of course.
The OBR is there to provide an independent check on the government's own figures. That is a valuable service; expecting them to be some sort of miraculous oracle is unreasonable.
Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?
Yes, that’s a different question
The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool
I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
100%. Well said.
I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.
The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?
Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale
It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
Well, yes. But they should have been fast tracking this for years before now. The fact that they haven’t is because their sensibilities are not in line with spending significant amounts of money in the north. They had a golden opportunity to show they were different and they fudged it.
The significant money to be spent on the north got spent instead on Covid furlough schemes, to save private sector jobs not only in the north.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel; especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
This OBR is useless. This report is useless. It’s vague as anything. It’s complete waste of paper it’s printed on.
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
How are they supposed to forecast energy prices though?
I'm currently reading the report. A few pages in, going to take a while to take it all in. Not sure how you've got through it so quickly.
You think “support will be somewhere over £100bn” is a good enough effort considering helpful clarity they are paid to deliver?
Yes energy prices could remain volatile making very exact predictions difficult - but so much had been bought at Xx price for this coming six months already had it not. As a contracts officer signing this OBR off as acceptable, you find “ support will be somewhere over £100bn” acceptable return for the money?
The important point being, part of the market reaction from last budget was blamed on Kwarteng avoiding an OBR - but my point is a OBR on Kwarteng budget could have said “Support will be somewhere over £100bn.”
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
It sounds very "first do not harm (or as little as possible)" which shouldn't be noteworthy but is.
I don't think the GBP will thank the government for their responsibility, and it's really hard to see how the public spending limits will stick.
I think a less than rapid fall in inflation and energy prices will really hurt the outturn of the projections.
But it's a small something to have adults in charge.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
Some on here think she is marvellous
Well quite.
Similarly to algarkirk, I’m a long-time Tory voter planning to vote Labour next time, but the Labour front bench doesn’t always make it easy for me to adhere to this decision. Pat McFadden, Shadow Chief Secretary, who I imagine would agree with me that the Truss/Kwarteng budget got what it deserved, was on TV this morning telling us all that the markets would be entirely relaxed if only unfunded borrowing were used for a public spending splurge instead of for tax cuts.
So are you planning to vote Labour to punish the Tories for Truss-Kwarteng or because you think Reeves-McFadden would be better for the economy than Sunak-Hunt?
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
Some but not all plane ticket prices are now bonkers
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
Some but not all plane ticket prices are now bonkers
Yeah we did the plane ticket prices are while ago, particularly business class. That appears to be upper middle classes having money saved from COVID and YOLOing travel.
I presume events is both trying to recoup from COVID and inflation, but also feels like price gouging going on e.g. NFL London Tickets I think have doubled pre to post COVID.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel; especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
This OBR is useless. This report is useless. It’s vague as anything. It’s complete waste of paper it’s printed on.
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
So can you accurately forecast gas prices for the next twelve months ?
It's not useless at all, but government spending contingent on market prices is by its nature as hard to predict as are those energy prices. Spending and income are dynamically modelled on an ongoing basis, of course.
The OBR is there to provide an independent check on the government's own figures. That is a valuable service; expecting them to be some sort of miraculous oracle is unreasonable.
I refer the honourable avatar to the post I made some moments ago.
Yes energy prices could remain volatile making very exact predictions difficult - but so much had been bought at Xx price for this coming six months already had it not. As a contracts officer signing this OBR off as acceptable, you find “ support will be somewhere over £100bn” acceptable return for the money?
The important point being, part of the market reaction from last budget was blamed on Kwarteng avoiding an OBR - but my point is a OBR on Kwarteng budget could have said “Support will be somewhere over £100bn.”
Clarity to markets, media and all of us?
I agree the idea of an independent OBR bringing clarity is a good one, I just don’t feel this OBR is delivering that to us, the British people who are paying for this OBR report.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Still worth any price at the chip van at Tobermory Harbour.
Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.
Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.
He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.
They are already playing out their plan...
Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.
The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.
Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
£150m isn't going to make any difference to the level of debt Morrisons now has.
And unless I'm mistaken the plans to sell off food manufacturing and the other bits that made Morrisons decent have failed to find buyers stupid enough to pay the prices being asked.
You misunderstand....the £150 million is just the start, that was just 5 supermarkets. They own 86% of the ~500 sites their supermarkets are on, that's billions. I believe they also own a load of prime warehousing sites, which with Brexit / Global Supply Chain issues etc, are in demand.
Now their plan might be shafted in the short term because of upcoming global recession, but they don't make new land so they probably won't really lose out long term.
As you say, that sounds as if Morrisons will be disembowelled. Our local one is still really excellent in many ways.
Since (I think) they still have a balance towards the North, that may be terminal.
End of an era, I think.
I do my 'big shop' online with Morrisons and it's become very noticeable how much of their own-brand stuff is now unavailable. I had a sneaking suspicion it might be for 'gut the carcass' reasons, which would be a real shame as they were very good on quality and working to keep things in-house.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
Some but not all plane ticket prices are now bonkers
Yeah we did the plane ticket prices are while ago, particularly business class. That appears to be upper middle classes having money saved from COVID and YOLOing travel.
I presume events is both trying to recoup from COVID and inflation, but also feels like price gouging going on e.g. NFL London Tickets I think have double pre to post COVID.
Sure, I remember, but I've now noticed that some Economy tickets are hideously pricely. And yet not all. It feels quite random as to which have rocketed and which are still value
He's probably glad this came out today with all attention on the Autumn Statement, but what was Tugendhat thinking of when contesting the Tory leadership at a time when he had this hanging over him? Another chancer.
Surprise surprise, deregulated finance turns out to be one big fraud.
The fact they ran the trading exchange, a trading firm and were a market marker (among the 27,000 other things they got involved in) all from offshore had warning bells going way way back. How many conflicts of interest do you want.
Surprise surprise, deregulated finance turns out to be one big fraud.
The fact they ran the trading exchange, a trading firm and were a market marker (among the 27,000 other things they got involved in) all from offshore had warning bells going way way back. How many conflicts of interest do you want.
I keep reading things about FTX that make me wonder what part of 'we all lend each other money to buy non-existent assets, which drives up the price so we all get rich on the trade' *didn't* set alarm bells ringing for investors.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
My impression is that the growth since 2013 has benefitted a small subset of people, and a different group of people will now be seeing a dip in their living standards. But perhaps I'm a victim of media hysteria.
Just had my most important postbox collection so far
Perhaps it is asking Santa to deliver the Andrew Dilnot social care reforms before s/he is themselves in a care home.
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
Surprise surprise, deregulated finance turns out to be one big fraud.
The fact they ran the trading exchange, a trading firm and were a market marker (among the 27,000 other things they got involved in) all from offshore had warning bells going way way back. How many conflicts of interest do you want.
I keep reading things about FTX that make me wonder what part of 'we all lend each other money to buy non-existent assets, which drives up the price so we all get rich on the trade' *didn't* set alarm bells ringing for investors.
Its the fact they managed to screw it up so badly that is truly amazing....the trading firm allegedly had all access to the trading exchange so they could front run everything, and yet they managed to lose their shirts. And of course they made their own token that they forced other start-ups to use in order to participate in things like funding rounds and deposit the real capital with them.
They literally ran the market, made the market, traded the market with insider info and managed to lose. That's seriously impressive.
Is this even enough to save councils is the actual take out?
I can answer my own question, the answer is No - the bit of extra funding raised by and blamed on councils will not be enough, it is going to need further government intervention with tax payers money isn’t it?
Will the government interventions to councils be done fairly under these Tories?
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
Some on here think she is marvellous
Well quite.
Similarly to algarkirk, I’m a long-time Tory voter planning to vote Labour next time, but the Labour front bench doesn’t always make it easy for me to adhere to this decision. Pat McFadden, Shadow Chief Secretary, who I imagine would agree with me that the Truss/Kwarteng budget got what it deserved, was on TV this morning telling us all that the markets would be entirely relaxed if only unfunded borrowing were used for a public spending splurge instead of for tax cuts.
But see @bigjohnowls upthread: "Pat McWanker currently confirming Labour planning a period of Austerity under the next Lab Govt..."
Are they hitting a happy medium, or just going to lose votes at both ends ?
"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information."
No jokes about the Truss administration, please.
SBF is a Biden donor, isn't he?
The tentacles of connections run deep by also on both sides of the house. SBF, the family, the girlfriend very closely connected to the Democrats and the likes of Gary Gensler, a co-founder of FTX also threw big bucks at Republicans.
The fact very iffy trading of elected officials and their families hasn't ever really blown up is nuts to me. Them not having to use things like blind trusts to give even a veil of distance between themselves and their holdings.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
Some on here think she is marvellous
Well quite.
Similarly to algarkirk, I’m a long-time Tory voter planning to vote Labour next time, but the Labour front bench doesn’t always make it easy for me to adhere to this decision. Pat McFadden, Shadow Chief Secretary, who I imagine would agree with me that the Truss/Kwarteng budget got what it deserved, was on TV this morning telling us all that the markets would be entirely relaxed if only unfunded borrowing were used for a public spending splurge instead of for tax cuts.
So are you planning to vote Labour to punish the Tories for Truss-Kwarteng or because you think Reeves-McFadden would be better for the economy than Sunak-Hunt?
More because I have bought the argument that we need some serious state investment in infrastructure and the public realm and I’m more hopeful of getting it from Labour, and I accept that within reason higher taxes are needed to pay for it. But if they plan to finance higher spending by borrowing instead, I may yet reconsider my position.
I also think the Tories show every sign of being desperately in need of a spell in opposition.
Just had my most important postbox collection so far
Perhaps it is asking Santa to deliver the Andrew Dilnot social care reforms before s/he is themselves in a care home.
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
If they are like my children, you will find out later they didn't believe for quite some time but didn't want to risk the presents drying up, so kept up the pretense for many years.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
I wonder if this will actually help to beat the resale market.....
People were moaning about Eng vs NZ tix at Lords this summer. Best day I had for years and well worth the £140 per seat....bought 2 weeks before the event happened.
At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.
"Given the starting position..." Who gave it to us ?
Various idiots, including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, although to be fair the government is right to point out that a lot of the problem comes from things totally outside the UK's control.
Nice to have a grown-up Chancellor, again. Hunt is much better than Sunak was.
At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.
"Given the starting position..." Who gave it to us ?
Various idiots, including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, although to be fair the government is right to point out that a lot of the problem comes from things totally outside the UK's control.
Nice to have a grown-up Chancellor, again. Hunt is much better than Sunak was.
I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade
If you're demanding an apology from PBers for each time they get something wrong then you've got a long day of typing ahead of you.
Only joking. Because then I'd have to do the same, and seeing as I express 3000 opinions a day, many of them wrong, that would take up a lot of my drinking time
At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.
"Given the starting position..." Who gave it to us ?
Various idiots, including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, although to be fair the government is right to point out that a lot of the problem comes from things totally outside the UK's control.
Nice to have a grown-up Chancellor, again. Hunt is much better than Sunak was.
I'm very much looking forward to the managed declinist pensioner-reliant rump of the Tory party owning the next election defeat. Then we can finally put to bed Heathism and rejuvenate the party with some pro-building, pro supply-side economic reform young-uns.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
I wonder if this will actually help to beat the resale market.....
People were moaning about Eng vs NZ tix at Lords this summer. Best day I had for years and well worth the £140 per seat....bought 2 weeks before the event happened.
Hasn't worked for Peter Kay tickets ;-)
This trend for dynamic pricing though that Ticketmaster are introducing needs to be regulated against. That seems a total no-no, because unlike say airlines, there is no competition / market pressure, there isn't an EasyJet vs RyanAir vs BA etc.
An artist comes to a city for a gig and signed exclusively with now basically Live Nation (who also the same people who own Ticketmaster). In general, you can't choose to go to see the artist at a different venue nearby run where it is organised by a different company / tickets sold by a different vendor.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
I wonder if this will actually help to beat the resale market.....
People were moaning about Eng vs NZ tix at Lords this summer. Best day I had for years and well worth the £140 per seat....bought 2 weeks before the event happened.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed hikes in Fish and Chip prices?
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
Ticket prices for events are gone absolutely nuts.
I wonder if this will actually help to beat the resale market.....
People were moaning about Eng vs NZ tix at Lords this summer. Best day I had for years and well worth the £140 per seat....bought 2 weeks before the event happened.
Hasn't worked for Peter Kay tickets ;-)
£40 quid? Way to cheap......
Well if you want to pay £1000, plenty available on resale :-)
There is a serious point here, and that is the inflation the Labour Government, and the various governments since 2010, have put into the housing market and stock markets. A fear of those two markets crashing as they seek to correct themselves are like an elephant in the room not just of todays budget, but stalking many budgets over the coming years.
Government policy must be wary of asset price inflation. UK government fiscal tightening and BoE monetary QT can increase market volatility. Years of excessive QE under Labour and other governments increased the amount of money in the economy, and banks could lend more cheaply, mortgages were cheaper, coupled with housing supply not easily expanded this pushed cost of housing upward. Similarly much of this printed inflationary money was invested in stocks. Although different asset classes are affected differently by it, QE increased demand for bonds and created money to be invested in stocks with idea to hedge the trade and lock in profit. But the hedge might not always be perfect if prices go into correction, you may have to bail out and far worse if you were greedy and didn’t hedge.
I’m not forecasting another run on the £ from this budget, I am expecting government to keep close eye on markets for signs of volatility, and prevent it becoming a crash by reacting quickly. I think the inflation too much QE put into housing and stocks could lead to a crash, so maybe even worse things to still come out the woodwork overlooked today.
As you would expect I agree with Jezza #enoughisenough
A massive hole in the market for an anti Austerity Party at GE2024 No sign of one emerging
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn · 1h Jeremy Hunt's attempt to justify the last wave of austerity is an insult to all those who lost their lives to 12 years of state-sanctioned cruelty.
Even more insulting is that he expects us to simply lie down and accept it all over again.
Just had my most important postbox collection so far
Perhaps it is asking Santa to deliver the Andrew Dilnot social care reforms before s/he is themselves in a care home.
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
If they are like my children, you will find out later they didn't believe for quite some time but didn't want to risk the presents drying up, so kept up the pretense for many years.
I remember feeling like I right idiot when I discovered it was all a big lie.
I may have missed it earlier, but have we covered the OBR forecast that house prices will fall by 9% between now and autumn 2024? That would seem to be the final blow to any Tory hope of a polling recovery by the next GE.
I quite like Hunt. A grown up, but I do think it is a big mistake lowering the Dividend and Capital Gain Allowances so low as it will be a real headache for taxpayers with small shareholdings and HMRC for little return. It will drag loads into the net who don't even currently fill in tax returns. If he wanted to raise tax from these areas a change in the rate would be simpler and raise more, without any added admin.
Also amused that Russia and Covid got blamed for our state of affairs, but Truss and Brexit were missing from the list. I wonder why?
This budget is probably the best sandwich Hunt and Sunak could make out of crap, but it is still a crap sandwich, and no one likes it
Labour should now be even firmer favourites for the 2024 election. They will have to screw up enormously to lose
If inflation drops substantially as suggested by the BoE governor and the recession is not as deep or as long as predicted, than Labour might have a problem. It is a lot of "ifs", but Rishi does have the feel of a lucky general to me. The worry is that if Labour do lose next time they will swing back to the extreme left again.
I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade
If you're demanding an apology from PBers for each time they get something wrong then you've got a long day of typing ahead of you.
Only joking. Because then I'd have to do the same, and seeing as I express 3000 opinions a day, many of them wrong, that would take up a lot of my drinking time
Treasury sources confirm overall tax burden will rise to 37.5% of GDP by 24/25 - highest since WW2. Even in 27/28 it barely drops to 37.1% Add post-election plans to cut unprotected spending, and capital spending, and there's little "jam tomorrow" for JAMs [just about managings]. https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1593241701102985217
This budget is probably the best sandwich Hunt and Sunak could make out of crap, but it is still a crap sandwich, and no one likes it
Labour should now be even firmer favourites for the 2024 election. They will have to screw up enormously to lose
If inflation drops substantially as suggested by the BoE governor and the recession is not as deep or as long as predicted, than Labour might have a problem. It is a lot of "ifs", but Rishi does have the feel of a lucky general to me. The worry is that if Labour do lose next time they will swing back to the extreme left again.
You do know that inflation dropping does not make prices any cheaper?
It doesn’t make the credit crunch go away, prices don’t get any cheaper as inflation drops, households without wages and benefit uplifts will still be feeling the pinch where their income has been eroded.
Just had my most important postbox collection so far
Perhaps it is asking Santa to deliver the Andrew Dilnot social care reforms before s/he is themselves in a care home.
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
If they are like my children, you will find out later they didn't believe for quite some time but didn't want to risk the presents drying up, so kept up the pretense for many years.
I remember feeling like I right idiot when I discovered it was all a big lie.
At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.
"Given the starting position..." Who gave it to us ?
Various idiots, including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, although to be fair the government is right to point out that a lot of the problem comes from things totally outside the UK's control.
Nice to have a grown-up Chancellor, again. Hunt is much better than Sunak was.
Agreed. But it would be nice if some of the crew that have been running the show for the last decade or so, and are still in government, would occasionally say "sorry, we made mistakes", rather than "mistakes were made".
This budget is probably the best sandwich Hunt and Sunak could make out of crap, but it is still a crap sandwich, and no one likes it
Labour should now be even firmer favourites for the 2024 election. They will have to screw up enormously to lose
If inflation drops substantially as suggested by the BoE governor and the recession is not as deep or as long as predicted, than Labour might have a problem. It is a lot of "ifs", but Rishi does have the feel of a lucky general to me. The worry is that if Labour do lose next time they will swing back to the extreme left again.
I don't think many people will be happy for prices have gone up loads and now they are still going up at a decent whack (just not quite as fast as before), while your taxes have gone up (and will do more), while your pay hasn't.
The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.
Is this all being a bit overdone?
BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
A lot of pixels to say "I'll vote Tory as normal when it comes down to it".
Rachel was not "dire" in any shape or form. Even the studiously partisan @Omnium rated her response.
The key is in the final word: response. Her job today was to respond to Hunt – not lay out Labour's manifesto two years ahead of a general election.
As you would expect I agree with Jezza #enoughisenough
A massive hole in the market for an anti Austerity Party at GE2024 No sign of one emerging
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn · 1h Jeremy Hunt's attempt to justify the last wave of austerity is an insult to all those who lost their lives to 12 years of state-sanctioned cruelty.
Even more insulting is that he expects us to simply lie down and accept it all over again.
He's got another thing coming.
Excellent. Corbyn on the march again.
And you wonder why he gets name-checked every PMQs?
Just had my most important postbox collection so far
Perhaps it is asking Santa to deliver the Andrew Dilnot social care reforms before s/he is themselves in a care home.
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
If they are like my children, you will find out later they didn't believe for quite some time but didn't want to risk the presents drying up, so kept up the pretense for many years.
I remember feeling like I right idiot when I discovered it was all a big lie.
Tooth fairy. Santa. God.
All this shite I was fed when I was young.
You believed in the tooth fairy ? And I was sceptical about the whole god thing from the off.
Santa seemed much more plausible for a few years. Not sure why.
Comments
I'm disappointed that HS2 NE is still deleted, and that the Housing Market is left unreformed.
A lot of fiscal drag. Good to see some reform of top rate taxes. Hopefully the £100-£125k marginal rate will be next.
I did not hear anything on defence spending. Aha - I see 2% GDP will be maintained. That may be code for an effective reduction, depending how it is counted.
I wonder if a typical energy bill will be anywhere near pro-rata £3000 by the time we get to April.
Brave, but sensible, to go for a revaluation for business rates. A time bomb? Last time it was like stuck pigs squealing to heaven for those not paying wrt their disproportionate property price increases.
Sensible to raise Min Wage (I think to the highest net in Western Europe), and benefits / basic pensions by inflation rate.
Local Council finances look to be under threat. I missed whether these would be restricted to +5% on Council Tax this year. Those are also crying out for a re-valuation or reform.
To me (others will differ) Reeves' speech was a vacuum - about 95% pre-recorded rhetoric.
Now their plan might be shafted in the short term because of upcoming global recession, but they don't make new land so they probably won't really lose out long term.
I'm only really knowledgeable on Scottish mountains, child poverty and cycle infrastructure.
·
29m
FTX says the "fair value" of all the crypto that FTX international holds is a mere $659!
Remember that SBF has been marking it at $5.5bn: https://ft.com/content/f05fe9f8-ca0a-48d5-8ef2-7a4d813af558
It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
Some on here think she is marvellous
For example want to know how much it’s costing the British people to buck UK energy market till April? “Support will be Somewhere over £100bn.”
They might as well said somewhere over a rainbow. Utterly useless. The OBR should be disbanded.
Mine has been fantastic value for years and years, and just hoicked the prices by about 25-30%. Large fish, large peas and chips just went up to around £9-10.
$659,000
I'm currently reading the report. A few pages in, going to take a while to take it all in. Not sure how you've got through it so quickly.
https://twitter.com/kadhim/status/1593225579155058690
Since (I think) they still have a balance towards the North, that may be terminal.
End of an era, I think.
I don't think the GBP will thank the government for their responsibility, and it's really hard to see how the public spending limits will stick.
I suspect that will have gone up by 25% too given the price of oats, wheat, rye
Of course now I have joined the Golden Generation it should not really be of interest to me
Boots meal deals, for example. In the first 20 years of the century they must have inflated by no more than 10%.
Their business is at the intersection of all the biggest cost pressures in the economy.
Massive labour shortage for part time hours low wage staff, pushing hourly wages up a lot.
Energy prices
Fish and cooking oil prices
It’s minimum £10 for cod & chips, everywhere. Even mini/smaller, or cheaper “white fish” and chips are minimum £6, double what it was, pre-pandemic.
Loads have gone out of business, here in the WM. I assume it’s the same story nationwide.
As I said, I entertained other possibilities (as one should) but anyone who reads that thread will know that I was fairly sure it was a truck
“Leon
The FT article (££) is quite persuasive that it was probably a truck, driven from Russia. That’s the conclusion of analysts, including some Ukrainians
The second possibility is a missile, but that seems less likely
The article also makes the point that the Ukes will want to blur the picture to confuse and confound Moscow”
Leon said:
» show previous quotes
“You’ve all gone completely mad. The idea it was a truck bomb is not some crazy Russian lie. It’s regarded as the most likely explanation, but we just don’t know. Here’s the FT today. Is it in the pay of Putin?”
Leon:
“There is no certainty from me. I’ve said a truck bomb is seen by many as the “most likely” explanation, but we just don’t know, and of course it could be several different things - truck bomb AND special forces”
Leon:
“The more interesting point is that PB hysteria has reached the stage when merely saying "a truck bomb is a likely explanation, but we don't know" apparently makes you a Muscovite shill and a fucking appeaser”
And so on
https://twitter.com/John_Stepek/status/1593229445644505088
Similarly to algarkirk, I’m a long-time Tory voter planning to vote Labour next time, but the Labour front bench doesn’t always make it easy for me to adhere to this decision. Pat McFadden, Shadow Chief Secretary, who I imagine would agree with me that the Truss/Kwarteng budget got what it deserved, was on TV this morning telling us all that the markets would be entirely relaxed if only unfunded borrowing were used for a public spending splurge instead of for tax cuts.
And - as you say - multinationals such as BASF hit by Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Plus they have spent a ginormous amount (€200bn) for energy support.
But did not their first LNG import terminal go live?
Govt
Sounds like signing up to Tory Austerity for a minimum of first 2 years
Accepting there is a £50Bn black hole now too
Manifesto could still lose Lab the next GE in favour of any Party willing to be bolder
At the moment, it would be nice if Trans-Pennine Express could just operate something approximating to the timetabled service. And get some more Cats in service.
=Having accepted this economic reality, ministers must speak honestly to voters about economic benefits of immigration. https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1593229998055649280/photo/1
It's not useless at all, but government spending contingent on market prices is by its nature as hard to predict as are those energy prices. Spending and income are dynamically modelled on an ongoing basis, of course.
The OBR is there to provide an independent check on the government's own figures. That is a valuable service; expecting them to be some sort of miraculous oracle is unreasonable.
Yes energy prices could remain volatile making very exact predictions difficult - but so much had been bought at Xx price for this coming six months already had it not. As a contracts officer signing this OBR off as acceptable, you find “ support will be somewhere over £100bn” acceptable return for the money?
The important point being, part of the market reaction from last budget was blamed on Kwarteng avoiding an OBR - but my point is a OBR on Kwarteng budget could have said “Support will be somewhere over £100bn.”
Clarity to markets, media and all of us?
But it's a small something to have adults in charge.
I wonder what interest rates will do?
I presume events is both trying to recoup from COVID and inflation, but also feels like price gouging going on e.g. NFL London Tickets I think have doubled pre to post COVID.
Yes energy prices could remain volatile making very exact predictions difficult - but so much had been bought at Xx price for this coming six months already had it not. As a contracts officer signing this OBR off as acceptable, you find “ support will be somewhere over £100bn” acceptable return for the money?
The important point being, part of the market reaction from last budget was blamed on Kwarteng avoiding an OBR - but my point is a OBR on Kwarteng budget could have said “Support will be somewhere over £100bn.”
Clarity to markets, media and all of us?
I agree the idea of an independent OBR bringing clarity is a good one, I just don’t feel this OBR is delivering that to us, the British people who are paying for this OBR report.
Big council tax hikes coming across the country. https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1593232155907194880
Post Covid chaos plus demand, perhaps
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-63662624
Labour should now be even firmer favourites for the 2024 election. They will have to screw up enormously to lose
Admittedly not my field.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1592903044693626888
However I am currently blessed with three grandchildren, all devout believers, though not I suppose for much longer. So I am under strict instructions to keep all sarcastic and grumpy old man comments to myself.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1592458803173269506
No jokes about the Truss administration, please.
They literally ran the market, made the market, traded the market with insider info and managed to lose. That's seriously impressive.
We’re a mess. https://twitter.com/TheScepticIsle/status/1593240043841540098/photo/1
I can answer my own question, the answer is No - the bit of extra funding raised by and blamed on councils will not be enough, it is going to need further government intervention with tax payers money isn’t it?
Will the government interventions to councils be done fairly under these Tories?
"Pat McWanker currently confirming Labour planning a period of Austerity under the next Lab Govt..."
Are they hitting a happy medium, or just going to lose votes at both ends ?
The fact very iffy trading of elected officials and their families hasn't ever really blown up is nuts to me. Them not having to use things like blind trusts to give even a veil of distance between themselves and their holdings.
I also think the Tories show every sign of being desperately in need of a spell in opposition.
Also provided at least $10m to the lab leak theory guys.
Basically an equal opportunity crook.
People were moaning about Eng vs NZ tix at Lords this summer. Best day I had for years and well worth the £140 per seat....bought 2 weeks before the event happened.
Nice to have a grown-up Chancellor, again. Hunt is much better than Sunak was.
https://heavy.com/news/sam-bankman-fried-ukraine-politics-biden/
This trend for dynamic pricing though that Ticketmaster are introducing needs to be regulated against. That seems a total no-no, because unlike say airlines, there is no competition / market pressure, there isn't an EasyJet vs RyanAir vs BA etc.
An artist comes to a city for a gig and signed exclusively with now basically Live Nation (who also the same people who own Ticketmaster). In general, you can't choose to go to see the artist at a different venue nearby run where it is organised by a different company / tickets sold by a different vendor.
Government policy must be wary of asset price inflation. UK government fiscal tightening and BoE monetary QT can increase market volatility. Years of excessive QE under Labour and other governments increased the amount of money in the economy, and banks could lend more cheaply, mortgages were cheaper, coupled with housing supply not easily expanded this pushed cost of housing upward. Similarly much of this printed inflationary money was invested in stocks. Although different asset classes are affected differently by it, QE increased demand for bonds and created money to be invested in stocks with idea to hedge the trade and lock in profit. But the hedge might not always be perfect if prices go into correction, you may have to bail out and far worse if you were greedy and didn’t hedge.
I’m not forecasting another run on the £ from this budget, I am expecting government to keep close eye on markets for signs of volatility, and prevent it becoming a crash by reacting quickly. I think the inflation too much QE put into housing and stocks could lead to a crash, so maybe even worse things to still come out the woodwork overlooked today.
A massive hole in the market for an anti Austerity Party at GE2024 No sign of one emerging
Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn
·
1h
Jeremy Hunt's attempt to justify the last wave of austerity is an insult to all those who lost their lives to 12 years of state-sanctioned cruelty.
Even more insulting is that he expects us to simply lie down and accept it all over again.
He's got another thing coming.
Interesting to compare the present situation with the GFC. Wonder what the equivalent chart looks like for other countries?
Tooth fairy. Santa. God.
All this shite I was fed when I was young.
The source of the stat – the Independent Schools Council, the lobby group that represents private schools.
But the Tories’ chances of winning the next election may be dead too.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/undertaker-hunts-delayed-pain-autumn-statement-gives-labour-a-problem-1977540?ito=twitter_share_article-top
Also amused that Russia and Covid got blamed for our state of affairs, but Truss and Brexit were missing from the list. I wonder why?
Add post-election plans to cut unprotected spending, and capital spending, and there's little "jam tomorrow" for JAMs [just about managings].
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1593241701102985217
It doesn’t make the credit crunch go away, prices don’t get any cheaper as inflation drops, households without wages and benefit uplifts will still be feeling the pinch where their income has been eroded.
He has become Twitter's go-to reason why the Republicans flopped in the mid-terms.
But it would be nice if some of the crew that have been running the show for the last decade or so, and are still in government, would occasionally say "sorry, we made mistakes", rather than "mistakes were made".
Its a seriously hard sell.
Rachel was not "dire" in any shape or form. Even the studiously partisan @Omnium rated her response.
The key is in the final word: response. Her job today was to respond to Hunt – not lay out Labour's manifesto two years ahead of a general election.
And you wonder why he gets name-checked every PMQs?
And I was sceptical about the whole god thing from the off.
Santa seemed much more plausible for a few years. Not sure why.