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Trump’s going to struggle if he thinks he can take on Murdoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    Oh you gullible fool.

    You actually believe anything written in The New York Times?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited November 2022
    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Yep but the Tories have had 12 years to fix things and they really haven't.

    The idea that a Tory will be able to blame Labour for the mess they find themselves explaining when they stand for election in 2024 is just not going to work.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    Suicide bomb? Remote driver?
    Still uncertain. Arguments both ways

    But very definitely a truck
    Quite important to know surely? Are Ukranians likely to have deployed a suicide bomber?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    :waves from the land of no income tax, no capital gains tax, and no corporation tax:
    No duty on alcohol, though. (Or so I imagine. Perhaps wrongly.)
    At my local, it’s about £12 a pint. £9 in “happy” hour. You rationalise it by remembering the 40% income tax you’re not paying!

    The local state-run offie has a 30% tax on it, but cheaper shops are an hour away in the next Emirate.
    £9-12 a drink, sounds like London prices....
    Morning all.

    Pint of what - champagne?
    £8 (+15% service charge) for a run of the mill 330ml beer at places like Savoy and Harvey Nics Cafe. So not even a pint.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    And the timing.

    Accountants gonna be very for the next 4 months.

    It’ll juice the govts books a bit, in the short term.

    It’s not fair, though. He should have upped the rates and made it immediate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,660
    Hunt is going to bring back a former Labour Health Secretary* to advise on improving NHS efficiency. That is a pretty damning verdict on the last 12 years of Tory Health Secs, including himself!

    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1593212574753255427?t=8bJMpnGI8jwDK_G0oaE1fw&s=19

    *quite possible the worst Health Sec of my professional career too.
  • HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"
  • So where are the cuts actually coming then?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Hunt says we need to focus on energy efficiency

    But still the Gov't is pocketing VAT from my solar battery investment !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    WillG said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
    I wouldn’t do it myself, but it isn’t necessarily illogical - you might take the view that being an EU member was an upside of living in the UK, whereas the damage of Brexit has added to the downside, compared to which your alternative of moving the the US or Australia becomes relatively better.
  • Talk of a Silicon ValleyRoundabout is back again.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    A fairer distribution of migrants is looming with migrants due to be sent to small towns and rural areas.

    This is excellent news. It is not right to keep dumping these vulnerable people in a handful of areas.

    Every part of the nation needs to do its bit.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/asylum-seekers-to-be-sent-to-rural-areas-for-fairer-distribution-of-migrants/ar-AA14cNsv?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=25d075e11a9346289a19256cd1e9f0c5

    A positive step forward. Though I note that they quote that political giant Jonathan Gullis who angrily says Stoke is full of migrants. What he means - and what many local voters think - is that they ALL should be sent somewhere else.

    Whilst sending asylum seekers to all parts of the country makes sense, it will not be an easy time for the poor sods being sent to places who already view outsiders with suspicion. And by "outsiders" I mean people "who weren't born here and will never understand here". A direct quote from the Mayor of Thornaby-on-Tees as an example of the parochial bigotry which blights this country.
    And yet for every gobby prick who pretends to be speaking for the locals, there will be ten people in the background just quietly getting on with making refugees welcome. We saw it locally with the Afghans who have been at one of the country hotels for the last year and there has been a very well supported effort to make them welcome and comfortable with people supplying all manner of gifts and essentials to make their lives as normal as possible. It rarely makes the news but I get the impression it is happening right across the country under the very noses of the bigots.
    I recommend the excellent film "Limbo" about a group of asylum seekers in an isolated part of rural Scotland. Both the grinding insensitivity of the bureaucracy and the kindness of strangers are well shown. One of the best British films of recent years.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9138170/
    And I recommend you, and @Richard_Tyndall, for example looking at Alicia Kearn's facebook post about asylum seekers being housed in Scalford Hall (7 Nov).

    Of the 82 comments I struggle to find any supportive ones.

    Typical of the genre:

    "Totally disgusting the public don't want this to happen so please don't say we do you don't speak for us anymore sooner conservative party is voted out the better."


    I mean I know it's social media and I know that for those 82 there could easily by 820 people quietly getting on with welcoming them but it is a relatively significant response if one believes that whereas there may be 10 people per gobshite who disagree, there will be X people per gobshite who agree.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337

    Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    Oh you gullible fool.

    You actually believe anything written in The New York Times?
    This follows a pattern. Something weird happens in Ukraine/Russia. Multiple theories float about, some apparently sown to provoke division and confusion in Moscow (or fear in Kyiv if they come from Russia)

    Once the utility of the psy-ops is exhausted, the NYT quietly says what really happened. Cf the Darya Dugina bomb, which was initially blamed on renegade Russians, then the NYT belatedly revealed it was a Ukrainian attack

    It was a truck
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    As others have said - you are very trusting of the NYT. Have you not seen their view of the UK?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
  • WillG said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
    I was thinking of Ireland.
  • Ester McVey won't be a happy bunny.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    As others have said - you are very trusting of the NYT. Have you not seen their view of the UK?
    They did a great bit on Sam Bankman Fried the other day...oh wait, it was total horseshit....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    Suicide bomb? Remote driver?
    Disposable asset would be the simplest way to do it and therefore the most likely.
  • Just on 12 years: it's worth noting the Coalition had to try and recover after the very severe recession. And since 2020 we've had the pandemic and ensuing economic consequences.

    That's not to ignore the self-obsessed incompetence of Boris Johnson and other problems (Coalition was mostly good but the slashing of judicial system spending was shortsighted). But pretending or implying the Conservatives, including Coalition, started with a blank slate rather than inheriting a vast deficit and debt from Labour, or that the pandemic hasn't affected things massively, is not reasonable.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    Oh you gullible fool.

    You actually believe anything written in The New York Times?
    This follows a pattern. Something weird happens in Ukraine/Russia. Multiple theories float about, some apparently sown to provoke division and confusion in Moscow (or fear in Kyiv if they come from Russia)

    Once the utility of the psy-ops is exhausted, the NYT quietly says what really happened. Cf the Darya Dugina bomb, which was initially blamed on renegade Russians, then the NYT belatedly revealed it was a Ukrainian attack

    It was a truck
    I'd need a stronger source than The New York Times.

    Did you know this truck used what.three.words to position the optimum place to cause the most damage?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    As I said, most typical middle class investors have their investments in tax shelters. Those with large portfolios outside of an ISA or SIPP are the minority and can presumably afford it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    As others have said - you are very trusting of the NYT. Have you not seen their view of the UK?
    The NYT’s reporting of the Ukraine war is exemplary, and puts most UK newspaper coverage to shame. But the NYT has more resources, of course
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,660
    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    The key is to make like an MP, and change your primary residence to the second home, and sell your primary residence CGT free.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Been down to the police cordon apparently its 38c
    So it was just a storm in a C-cup?
    Oh, so not a certain Tory politician trying to attract the Red Wall.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    While I don't think I expressed an opinion either way (all I've seen is a video, which is quite inconclusive) I'd want more direct evidence than 'the NYT says' to accept something. For example, a summary of the experts' analyses showing the damage is consistent with a bomb delivered from above the roadway in a truck and why it is inconsistent with other possible causes.

    I'm sure such reports could be put into a fairly accessible format by a competent journalist - e.g. this bit bends this way, which wouldn't happen is explosion was here. Here are images from missile blasts, look how they differ etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Tbf this approach of not cutting capital projects is correct long term I think. There's more of an argument for power projects compared to rail now though imv.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Leon said:

    Well here’s one mystery solved

    The Kerch bridge explosion. We had a stramash on PB about this. With quite a few people claiming it was done by a missile or a boat crew underneath

    Some of us - including me - told them they were silly. And it was a truck bomb

    The NYT has the verdict. It was a truck


    The NYT piece does not afaics even address the possibility of a boat bomb - just a missile fired from a boat- and a truck bomb is assessed as "most likely".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Been down to the police cordon apparently its 38c
    In November? Hotting up in Chesterfield! :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    eek said:

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Yep but the Tories have had 12 years to fix things and they really haven't.

    The idea that a Tory will be able to blame Labour for the mess they find themselves explaining when they stand for election in 2024 is just not going to work.
    I’m not saying it will work, I’m just pointing out the true history not to be lost here. It was a twenty year economic mistake, and Labour were in for eight of them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    WillG said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
    I was thinking of Ireland.
    Kerry or Mayo?
  • HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
    No.
    Prior to the 1980s we understood that investment on targeted capex delivers a return on investment.
    Post 1980s we understood that investing is stupid when you can flog it off and make a profit now as the middle man.
    Boris understood the old way - invest, build things people need, give people jobs and thus money to circulate through the economy and we all gain. The BR/Truss lunacy wanted to slash everything. They lasted 50 days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    £10.42 min living wage from April 2023
  • Security minister Tom Tugendhat banned from driving over phone use

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-63662624
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Benefits rise with inflation
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827
    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.
  • MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    England got smashed by Australia in the cricket.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Triple lock stays
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited November 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Lot of truck enthusiasts on here who would be saddened by deliberate destruction? Just be grateful no one suggested it was the train :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    So where are the cuts actually coming then?

    From Labour after the next election. Big G was right about what today is really all about.

    This budget kicks the cuts the country must make till after the next general election.

    Those insults Big G got for predicting this before the speech don’t look so clever now do they.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Sounds about right.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
  • WillG said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
    I was thinking of Ireland.
    Kerry or Mayo?
    Donegal, no wait, Dublin.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
    No.
    Prior to the 1980s we understood that investment on targeted capex delivers a return on investment.
    Post 1980s we understood that investing is stupid when you can flog it off and make a profit now as the middle man.
    Boris understood the old way - invest, build things people need, give people jobs and thus money to circulate through the economy and we all gain. The BR/Truss lunacy wanted to slash everything. They lasted 50 days.
    What bit does the 'no' relate to?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    We’ve reached the bit with the bass drum and cymbals…

    Now Reeves to reply
  • Does this budget add up? They have flagged the mahoosive black hole from Loony Liz and Covid, but they're throwing vast buckets of cash at all and sundry. Yes, public services will crumble faster due to cuts, but he could have cut *everything* as demanded by BT/Trussite tories. And he hasn't.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    You obviously paid not attention to yesterdays PMQs. Taxes up to pay for HS2 is not universally popular in this Parliament.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Foxy said:

    Hunt is going to bring back a former Labour Health Secretary* to advise on improving NHS efficiency. That is a pretty damning verdict on the last 12 years of Tory Health Secs, including himself!

    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1593212574753255427?t=8bJMpnGI8jwDK_G0oaE1fw&s=19

    *quite possible the worst Health Sec of my professional career too.

    Alun Milburn was the worst in my 36 years in the NHS closely followed by Andrew Lansley
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Everything in line with what has been trailed. Patricia Hewitt appointed to conduct a review on improving NHS efficiency is the only thing worthy of an eyebrow raise.
  • HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
    My understanding was that the New Deal did help stimulate economic activity but it was quite limited and had to be watered down after the failed attempt to pack the court. The real Keynesian stimulus was the war.
  • HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
    No.
    Prior to the 1980s we understood that investment on targeted capex delivers a return on investment.
    Post 1980s we understood that investing is stupid when you can flog it off and make a profit now as the middle man.
    Boris understood the old way - invest, build things people need, give people jobs and thus money to circulate through the economy and we all gain. The BR/Truss lunacy wanted to slash everything. They lasted 50 days.
    What bit does the 'no' relate to?
    The question "is this not what the New Deal was in the 30s?"
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    Identifies that we have a major problem with people leaving the workforce so increases the state pension and working age benefits? Weird.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    There’s a reasonable chance energy suppliers will start offering fixed deals below the new £3k cap, I recon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    From the NYT analysis


    Rough estimates based on the size of the fireball indicate that there was a large quantity of explosives in the truck — at least a few tons, depending on the type of explosive, said Nick Glumac, an engineering professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Other blast experts said that a smaller charge, of a ton or less, might have been sufficient.

    When the bomb went off, the downward force of the blast put tremendous pressure on the bridge’s girders, the steel beams that hold up the roadway. The blast was perfectly placed in the middle of a span, where it is most prone to flex under pressure, making the beams especially vulnerable.

    Some images of the wreckage suggest that the truck exploded directly over one of those beams, which could also have ripped away part of the steel. They gave way, and the span buckled.

    But the damage was far more extensive than that one spot. That’s because the roadway underneath the bomb was a continuous structure over five of the piers, covering about 900 feet, according to engineers.

    The span overwhelmed by the explosion happened to be near the center of that stretch of road. When the span fell, it pulled the road toward it in both directions. The free ends of the road at the joints on either side slid off the piers on which they rested and fell toward the water.”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    edited November 2022
    Fiscal Conservatives can rejoice knowing the effects of paying higher tax and NI and cutting Public Services will mean that government debt will fall from from 97.6% of GDP in 2025-6 to 97.3% in 2027-8.
  • Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827
    ping said:

    There’s a reasonable chance energy suppliers will start offering fixed deals below the new £3k cap, I recon.

    Why would they? Easy money to stick it at £3k and make huge profits.
  • Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    Fair comment
  • Don't think keeping the triple lock is correct.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    I've always assumed that finding big projects employs lots of people, who then spend money. Is this not what the New Deal was in the 30's?
    No.
    Prior to the 1980s we understood that investment on targeted capex delivers a return on investment.
    Post 1980s we understood that investing is stupid when you can flog it off and make a profit now as the middle man.
    Boris understood the old way - invest, build things people need, give people jobs and thus money to circulate through the economy and we all gain. The BR/Truss lunacy wanted to slash everything. They lasted 50 days.
    What bit does the 'no' relate to?
    The question "is this not what the New Deal was in the 30s?"
    So what was the new deal then? I thought capital spending projects such as the Hoover Dam were involved? Mt history is probably hazy on this!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited November 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.

    Where’s the free egg?
  • Fiscal Conservatives can rejoice knowing the effects of paying higher tax and NI and cutting Public Services will mean that government debt will fall from from 97.6% of GDP in 2025-6 to 97.3% in 2027-8.

    It is better than that, they can rejoice knowing that the effects of paying higher tax and NI and cutting Public Services will mean that optimistic projections of government debt will fall from from 97.6% of GDP in 2025-6 to 97.3% in 2027-8.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    He does have a potential China problem, if things hot up between the West & Xi.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    WillG said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    Presumably you would be emigrating to a country in the European Union? I am always amused by people who leave "because of Brexit", to go to other Anglophone countries that aren't part of political unions with neighbouring states.
    I was thinking of Ireland.
    Kerry or Mayo?
    Donegal, no wait, Dublin.
    There's a 5-bed house in the SW Dublin suburbs that the Irish government would probably be willing to sell to you at a discount if you want it.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    Is the answer "there was no vacancy because the front benches were full of national security risks, bullies, and fondlers, who weren't going to step down."
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    There’s a reasonable chance energy suppliers will start offering fixed deals below the new £3k cap, I recon.

    Why would they? Easy money to stick it at £3k and make huge profits.
    Because there are hundreds of thousands of households (Inc me) who moved from their fix to a variable for the first time, and would jump at a 12 month fix below the cap?

    First mover advantage
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Muchísimas gracias! :smiley::wink:
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    As I said, most typical middle class investors have their investments in tax shelters. Those with large portfolios outside of an ISA or SIPP are the minority and can presumably afford it.
    I wasn't thinking of the tax take, I was thinking of the admin. For the vast majority of people with small shareholdings they have had since privatisation CGT has been irrelevant. Most won't even do tax returns. It is madness to start bringing small shareholdings into CGT. It brings in next to nothing and causes masses of admin.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    edited November 2022

    Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    To be fair that was his choice. He was offered a Cabinet post by Johnson after he lost the leadership race but decided to return to the back benches. He said at the time he would only have stayed if he could have kept his job as FS.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-hunt-out-cabinet/
  • At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297

    Don't think keeping the triple lock is correct.

    The only lock that is going to apply for a while is inflation... and I don't think you can realistically expect pensioners to take the hit on that at 11%.

  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022
    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    There’s no way anyone is going to cancel HS2. Last Sunday when out with my older daughter in Bucks I drove under a completed section of the track with cranes building more

    It is ABSOLUTELY BLOODY ENORMOUS

    Both me and the kiddo said “omg what’s that”?

    It was so big, looming out of the autumn mist, it looked otherworldly. A vast alien structure landing on earth

    It’s too far gone to cancel
  • IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    As I said, most typical middle class investors have their investments in tax shelters. Those with large portfolios outside of an ISA or SIPP are the minority and can presumably afford it.
    More likely, they are the least well advised.
  • Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    Because the party went bonkers.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    HS2 and NPR not getting cut. Its a radical idea, but investing in projects which deliver a return on investment is a Good Thing.

    We need to drop the idiocy of "who will pay for it" and I'm glad he has resisted the idiots on the right saying "just fill the holes"

    HS2 has a boondogglish whiff, but I think we're beyond the sunk-cost-fallacy point where dropping it would be viable.

    Northern English cities desperately need a better train service though, and have done for decades. I'm travelling across the Pennines regularly at the mo and it's a bloody nightmare.

    The WCML under Avanti is dogshit too, but that's a separate thing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thinking of emigrating.

    High taxing Brexit UK doesn't seem the appealing to me.

    :waves from the land of no income tax, no capital gains tax, and no corporation tax:
    No duty on alcohol, though. (Or so I imagine. Perhaps wrongly.)
    At my local, it’s about £12 a pint. £9 in “happy” hour. You rationalise it by remembering the 40% income tax you’re not paying!

    The local state-run offie has a 30% tax on it, but cheaper shops are an hour away in the next Emirate.
    £9-12 a drink, sounds like London prices....
    Morning all.

    Pint of what - champagne?
    £8 (+15% service charge) for a run of the mill 330ml beer at places like Savoy and Harvey Nics Cafe. So not even a pint.
    Hardly typical venues. I'm sure you could find similar prices in Manchester, Edinburgh and Leeds if you tried that hard.

    Why don't you come down to London, it might surprise you on the upside?
  • Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited November 2022

    Don't think keeping the triple lock is correct.

    The most likely lock to be dropped is the link with earnings, so it would make no difference to this state pension increase in line with inflation. There is no political benefit and no cash saving to be made from dropping the triple lock at this time.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    Yes. I thought Hunt was really very good. The best budget speech for ages. However the circumstances are awful and much of what Reeves is saying is correct. She's very good too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    Maybe they could poach it off the meat budget!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022

    Question for my mouth-foaming Tory friends. Jeremy Hunt is a very good communicator and political operator. He isn't a risk to national security, or a bully, or a fondler.

    Why on earth was he banished to the back benches for so long?

    To be fair that was his choice. He was offered a Cabinet post by Johnson after he lost the leadership race but decided to return to the back benches. He said at the time he would only have stayed if he could have kept his job as FS.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-hunt-out-cabinet/
    Also he got elected to Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, so wasn't exactly sitting on the backbenches picking his nose (especially when COVID came around).

    You could say the same on the other side for people like Yvette Cooper. She didn't get the call up from the sub bench for a year after Starmer took charge.

    Its the silly game of internal politics that all parties play.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827
    ping said:

    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
    There's like 15m people with ISAs. Any government that fucks with them will be out of power for a generation.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    It was always going to be the case of wait for three days on this one though, as it’s going to be stuffed with stealth taxes - the question being how progressive or regressive are those stealth taxes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    But people will literally die if everything isn't exactly the same as it was before.. where have you been?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    There’s no way anyone is going to cancel HS2. Last Sunday when out with my older daughter in Bucks I drove under a completed section of the track with cranes building more

    It is ABSOLUTELY BLOODY ENORMOUS

    Both me and the kiddo said “omg what’s that”?

    It was so big, looming out of the autumn mist, it looked otherworldly. A vast alien structure landing on earth

    It’s too far gone to cancel

    Agreed. Anyone who says now to cancel doesn't live nearby. We live about 5 miles from the HS2 route in Bucks. If you go and stand on top of Coombe Hill in Bucks, right next to Chequers, you can see the line of building works scythe through the land. I think it was the wrong thing to do for a number of reasons but there is no point stopping it now.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    I completely agree, given what is happening this is about as rational a response as you could hope for, though I still think the triple lock has to go when circumstances improve.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Not you surely as you are emigrating
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827
    Will have a proper read through the OBR numbers after lunch. At first glance the inflation forecasts look too high, there's a glut of supply coming over the next two years so I don't see how inflation stays at elevated levels for that long. By mid 2024 we'll be talking about rate cuts because inflation is falling too fast.
  • Omnium said:

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    Yes. I thought Hunt was really very good. The best budget speech for ages. However the circumstances are awful and much of what Reeves is saying is correct. She's very good too.
    She is. And what I think really resonates is that the Tories are having to take this action because of the lunacy of the Tories, as it did in the mid 90s.

    Lets remember back. Ken Clark was a good chancellor (and a genuinely decent bloke working for another genuinely decent PM). And the Tories got eviscerated for the actions of his predecessor. It doesn't matter how gently Jeremy Hunt does this, he will be the fall guy.
This discussion has been closed.