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Trump’s going to struggle if he thinks he can take on Murdoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    Maybe they could poach it off the meat budget!
    For too long we've laboured under the yolk of the meat lobby. The government need to shell out.
  • Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Bit of a catfight with Gill Keegan!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    eek said:

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Yep but the Tories have had 12 years to fix things and they really haven't.

    The idea that a Tory will be able to blame Labour for the mess they find themselves explaining when they stand for election in 2024 is just not going to work.
    As a matter of interest, who on Labour's front bench today was in Gordon Brown's government?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    There’s a reasonable chance energy suppliers will start offering fixed deals below the new £3k cap, I recon.

    Why would they? Easy money to stick it at £3k and make huge profits.
    They still need to compete for market share.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Oh dear, oh dear, and you complain that I write rubbish. Welcome to the club.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Yep but the Tories have had 12 years to fix things and they really haven't.

    The idea that a Tory will be able to blame Labour for the mess they find themselves explaining when they stand for election in 2024 is just not going to work.
    As a matter of interest, who on Labour's front bench today was in Gordon Brown's government?
    Pat McFadden at BEIS
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
    She absolutely looks the part.

    Shouldn't matter I guess, but it does.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
  • MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    There’s a reasonable chance energy suppliers will start offering fixed deals below the new £3k cap, I recon.

    Why would they? Easy money to stick it at £3k and make huge profits.
    They still need to compete for market share.
    Not really, companies have realised that they don't really need to if they all just do nothing. The cost and barriers of setting up a competitor are too high so energy companies can sit on their hands. It is a fundamentally broken market.
  • mwadams said:

    eek said:

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Yep but the Tories have had 12 years to fix things and they really haven't.

    The idea that a Tory will be able to blame Labour for the mess they find themselves explaining when they stand for election in 2024 is just not going to work.
    As a matter of interest, who on Labour's front bench today was in Gordon Brown's government?
    Ed Miliband.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    I wholeheartedly disagree with your purblind post.

    The poorest are struggling with food inflation and milk and eggs. Food banks are struggling. There needs to be an intervention on milk and eggs for the very poorest.

    Your laissez faire post paints you as the villain from a Dicken’s novel - The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Let the markets decide.

    The next six months the government will subsidise the heating of private swimming pools whilst the poor struggle for milk and eggs.

    That’s your card marked.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Hunt looks like the real leader sitting next to Sunak.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    edited November 2022
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
    There's like 15m people with ISAs. Any government that fucks with them will be out of power for a generation.
    The ISA allowance is ridiculous. I'm on a pretty good salary and cannot save anywhere near that per year. Deeply regressive.

    You don't need to shaft people retrospectively - just limit it to £10k per annum, or even £5k if you are a homeowner.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Talk of a Silicon ValleyRoundabout is back again.

    Happening this weekend. https://www.siliconmilkroundabout.com/
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    Not sure about all this 'trans' malarkey what about some trains for the rest of us?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
  • MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    Has the bar ever been lower, though?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    3% in cushy, cosseted academia :disappointed:

    (to be fair, up to 9% for the very lowest paid and no doubt double figures for some VCs)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Isn't (newish) Morrisons private equity owners play already really about the value in the real estate rather than really caring about winning in the incredibly difficult supermarket sector?

    I am always interested in what the Issas brothers / TDR Capital play in buying up some much retail recently.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s no way anyone is going to cancel HS2. Last Sunday when out with my older daughter in Bucks I drove under a completed section of the track with cranes building more

    It is ABSOLUTELY BLOODY ENORMOUS

    Both me and the kiddo said “omg what’s that”?

    It was so big, looming out of the autumn mist, it looked otherworldly. A vast alien structure landing on earth

    It’s too far gone to cancel

    Agreed. Anyone who says now to cancel doesn't live nearby. We live about 5 miles from the HS2 route in Bucks. If you go and stand on top of Coombe Hill in Bucks, right next to Chequers, you can see the line of building works scythe through the land. I think it was the wrong thing to do for a number of reasons but there is no point stopping it now.
    SUNK COST FALLACY KLAXON

    Use the resources being burnt up by HS2 to do Northern Powerhouse or more Nuke plants or whatever.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
    There's like 15m people with ISAs. Any government that fucks with them will be out of power for a generation.
    The ISA allowance is ridiculous. I'm on a pretty good salary and cannot save anywhere near that per year. Deeply regressive.

    You don't need to shaft people retrospectively - just limit it to £10k or even £5k if you are a homeowner.
    Very short sighted to just focus on salaries - if you get say a £100k windfall from an inheritance, it would take you 10 or 20 years to get it into the wrappers, rather than 5.

    Anyway, all tax free savings incentives are going to be regressive, more or less by definition. It's like saying that any random changes to the tax and benefits system will harm the poorest the most: it's so obviously true that pointing it out doesn't make you clever.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
    You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Nothing about Berlin's constitutional court ordering a rerun of the elections to the Berlin state parliament because of screwups?
    Should give hope to the Kari Lake supporters
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited November 2022

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Oh dear, oh dear, and you complain that I write rubbish. Welcome to the club.
    For someone who never reads my posts, you reply to an awful lot of them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
    Thatcherite Policies
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    At first glance, no major howlers in the budget, which is an improvement on recent performance, but feels a lot like a crisis wasted.

    For all the rhetoric of placing the burden on those with the broadest shoulders there was very little to raise money from those who have done best since the GFC - asset owners and wealthy pensioners.

    Announcing the extension of the freeze on tax allowances to 2028 has an air of unreality about it. That's the pre-re-election period for the next Labour government. Bit of a fantasy to be using policy then to close a deficit that exists now.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    ping said:

    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
    Of course that would generate miles more revenue - but they wouldn't do it as it would be seen as retrospective.

    Much more likely the £20k annual limit gets massively reduced. How many ordinary people can chuck £20k into an ISA each year.

    I'd imagine they reduce the limit to about £5k.

    Couple that with CGT rates = IT rates and you have a real change.

    And a change middle class Con supporters complaining about today's announcement really won't like.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    edited November 2022

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
    Apart from a small part time job after having brought up our 3 children she receives a pension of £4,576 pa at the age of 83
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.

    He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    It's been on the cards for about 10 years at least:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Powerhouse_Rail

    Both parties nominally support it. But there's a big gap between 'support' and 'fund'.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    You think Labour are blameless from this budget and potential housing and stock exchange crashes next year (or even next week)?

    They are not.

    Labour had two parliaments printing the fake money to get the country in this mess.

    It’s not all Labours fault, but they share the blame.
    Oh dear, oh dear, and you complain that I write rubbish. Welcome to the club.
    For someone who never reads my posts, your reply to an awful lot of them.
    Only the short ones.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    Endillion said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    MikeL said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    But that's why Labour will keep a small CGT threshold - no point in generating admin on small transactions.
    Probably more lucrative and less hassle for them to keep the current thresholds and unwrap isas etc, if they really want/need to raise revenue.
    There's like 15m people with ISAs. Any government that fucks with them will be out of power for a generation.
    The ISA allowance is ridiculous. I'm on a pretty good salary and cannot save anywhere near that per year. Deeply regressive.

    You don't need to shaft people retrospectively - just limit it to £10k or even £5k if you are a homeowner.
    Very short sighted to just focus on salaries - if you get say a £100k windfall from an inheritance, it would take you 10 or 20 years to get it into the wrappers, rather than 5.

    Anyway, all tax free savings incentives are going to be regressive, more or less by definition. It's like saying that any random changes to the tax and benefits system will harm the poorest the most: it's so obviously true that pointing it out doesn't make you clever.
    I didn't claim to be clever ;)

    If you get £100k from inheritance I'm not going to be terribly upset if you get taxed a bit on it.

    You'll know from my comment history that I think there should be a huge pivot to reducing taxes on working people (particularly with children) and increasing them on wealth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
    You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
    No I didn’t. I said it was a truck

    I might have explored other possibilities - as one should - but I never wavered from thinking a truck was most likely. Because it is. Occam’s razor

    This is such a bizarre argument. I can’t even remember why some PBers were so religiously attached to alternative explanations. It’s not like it changes anything
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
    Thatcherite Policies
    Zzzzzzzz
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    Trouble is there is pensioners and then there is pensioners. My folks don't really need the extra cash, just as they don't need the winter fuel allowance. They still get it though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    So as expected tough decisions by Hunt to deal with the deficit.

    Freeze in income tax threshold, reduction in additional rate threshold and an reduction in energy bills support a major contrast to Kwarteng's mini budget.

    However state pensioners and those on benefits and with tax credits will still see a rise in line with inflation.

    Little doubt too a future Labour government would face similar tough choices
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    .
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    BBC are all about the energy support ending in April - where the **** have they been - this was announced and taken as done WEEKS AGO. In the meantime Starmer says it’s the right decision it ends in April - leaving Martin Lewis out on his own.

    I think Martin Lewis is pretty rubbish. If he cared about the vulnerable why doesn’t he now get behind these struggling people targeting policy points instead
    1 moratorium on court action to collect energy debts
    2 a winter ban on energy companies forcibly switching customers to prepayment meters including smart prepay.
    3 Support for low income households which takes into account their actual energy bills due to their family size and need, regardless of receipt of means tested benefits.
    4 Increase Local Housing Allowance.
    5 An obviously up-rate benefits to reflect the inflation rate, but food inflation is 16% where low income households struggle across essentials. can government look at subsidies and interventions to help poorer families have better access to milk and eggs this winter? those key items food banks are now struggling to provide?

    I know PB laughs at “for everyone a free owl” but “for everyone a free egg” would be amazing right now. That’s my policy position.

    Similarly, universal free school meals.
    The benefit/cost ratio of that would be very high.
    Universal FSM is a subsidy of rich families by poor families.

    I can see a case for extending it to all families on UC, but not beyond that.
    No, it isn't, since the cost would be borne from taxation.

    The costs would not be extraordinary, and are outweighed by the benefits (more so n the universal case).
    In any event, an analysis of both ideas here:
    https://urbanhealth.org.uk/insights/reports/expanding-free-school-meals-a-cost-benefit-analysis
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
    You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
    No I didn’t. I said it was a truck

    I might have explored other possibilities - as one should - but I never wavered from thinking a truck was most likely. Because it is. Occam’s razor

    This is such a bizarre argument. I can’t even remember why some PBers were so religiously attached to alternative explanations. It’s not like it changes anything
    I think it might be the issue of it being a potential suicide bombing which is the issue. After all its nasty islamic terrorists who do suicide bombs, not nice, cuddly freedom fighting Ukranians.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Big budget. Biggest of this Parliament. The budgets up to end of this Parliament will be small change compared with this.

    Growth forecasts as bad as feared. We can only hope that these forecasts prove pessimistic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Some Tory MP on politics live has just blamed the Last Labour Government for the coming hate budget.

    That's amazing if where we are is down to Labour after 12 years of the Conservatives in power.
    Brown. The Man. The Legend. The Legacy :wink:
    Oh yes. Transformational politician. We are all of us Gordon's children.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    A fairly uncontroversial budget in the circumstances.

    The biggest error is the triple lock. Expect strikes to continue across the public sector as nurses etc have real term pay cuts versus protecting pensioners (including wealthy ones).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
    Apart from a small part time job after having brought up our 3 children she receives a pension of £4,576 pa at the age of 83
    So for 23 years, in todays terms she has had £105,248 out despite paying very little in?

    Not that bad really in PB Tory mindset surely.

    Your daughters and Granddaughters if you have them will have a much worse deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Confirmed the Republicans have retaken the House of Representatives even if the Democrats held the Senate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63629003
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    Have you undergone some sort of metamorphosis in the last couple of days ?
    That's at least the second time I've agreed with you.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Ghedebrav said:

    Hunt looks like the real leader sitting next to Sunak.

    He is a solid resident of Number 11. Can safely allow Rishi to get on with the non-economy politics.

    Budget seems not as horrible as the economic situation might have warranted.



    And we haven’t even got to the regressive stealth taxes yet
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
  • Oh Dear. Chief Secretary now on Politics Live. Claims the reason for the black hole is because of Covid and Russia. They then play a clip of Sunak in August saying how he will cut taxes. Faisal Islam asks what might have happened between August and now....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,788
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    MikeL said:

    The key thing about CGT is the rates.

    Reducing the allowances is just loose change.

    If you sell a 2nd home or investment property what matters is the CGT rate. Whether 3k or 12k is tax free is peanuts.

    I'm sure Labour will immediately equalise CGT and IT rates.

    Agree for 2nd homes, but matters when selling shares and will cause a hell of a lot of admin for small sales.
    As I said, most typical middle class investors have their investments in tax shelters. Those with large portfolios outside of an ISA or SIPP are the minority and can presumably afford it.
    I wasn't thinking of the tax take, I was thinking of the admin. For the vast majority of people with small shareholdings they have had since privatisation CGT has been irrelevant. Most won't even do tax returns. It is madness to start bringing small shareholdings into CGT. It brings in next to nothing and causes masses of admin.
    Just to provide some examples of this:

    a) I have umpteen modest shareholdings that I have had for donkey's years. Since buying them there have been rights issues, capital consolidations, etc and I have no idea what I paid for them now.

    b) My wife purchased shares via her payroll every month since 2007 and got matching shares and all in Swiss Francs. So a total of over 150 separate purchases at a price in Swiss francs at the exchange rate at an unknown date around her pay date.

    When the limit moves down to £3000 how the hell do we calculate the CGT? There is a reason for ignoring small shareholdings and that is it is not worth collecting for the effort involved.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    This is just Northern Powerhouse Rail mate. Discussed at length on here in the past (particularly links to HS2 and going over to Hull, I think).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.

    He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
    Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
    Thatcherite Policies
    Zzzzzzzz
    Yes that too

    On a par with SKS
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
    You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
    No I didn’t. I said it was a truck

    I might have explored other possibilities - as one should - but I never wavered from thinking a truck was most likely. Because it is. Occam’s razor

    This is such a bizarre argument. I can’t even remember why some PBers were so religiously attached to alternative explanations. It’s not like it changes anything
    I think it might be the issue of it being a potential suicide bombing which is the issue. After all its nasty islamic terrorists who do suicide bombs, not nice, cuddly freedom fighting Ukranians.
    Yes. I’ve actually found my comment which kicked off this mad debate

    “They’ve lost the moral high ground tho

    There are Ukrainian govt officials on Twitter complaining about “Russian terror attacks on civilians”

    Er, what was the Kerch bridge?! Civilians died. It was probably a truck bomb, possibly by suicide. It was a terror attack on Russia by that definition”

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/10881/at-evens-lab-looks-value-for-a-commons-majority-politicalbetting-com/p4

    I say time and again “probably a truck, possibly suicide” and people get angry and say I’m “shilling for Putin”. So that’s why the debate took a weird turn

    On that same thread I also say “this quite likely ends in nukes”. Let’s hope that I was WRONG about that. As things stand I think I will be wrong about that. Putin has either lost his nuclear nerve or his army is refusing to press the red button
  • glw said:

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    I completely agree, given what is happening this is about as rational a response as you could hope for, though I still think the triple lock has to go when circumstances improve.
    Yes. The triple lock is a daft policy in the long term, because of its ratchet effect. It should be abandoned as soon as politically possible (which may be never, unfortunately).

    However (and there's huge confusion about this), the fact that the triple lock is a bad idea in the long term doesn't at all mean that state pensions shouldn't increase, along with working-age benefits, in line with inflation in the short term. The two are completely separate points. Anyone dependent on the state pension is by definition on a low or very low income, and therefore in present circumstances exceedingly vulnerable to inflation - especially since inflation at the moment is especially high for energy and food, which are not only non-discretionary but also form a disproportionately large part of the spending of the low-paid.

    So Hunt is right to up both state pensions and benefits by inflation in this budget.

    Of course, pensioners as a whole are not getting anything like an inflation-linked increase in their incomes. Those with defined-contribution pensions will typically have bought a fixed annuity, and get no increase at all in that part of their income. Even those on defined benefit schemes will typically not get the full 10.1% - many schemes are capped at 5%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Talk of a Silicon ValleyRoundabout is back again.

    Just as Silicon Valley looks set to go ex-growth.
    The premise of investment into high growth high new technology is a good one, though. As always, it's whether government can intervene effectively or not.
  • ICYMI BBC4 started reshowing the original House of Cards last night. It is on iplayer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    "Given the starting position..."
    Who gave it to us ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.

    He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
    Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
    The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.

    They are already playing out their plan...

    Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.

    The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.

    Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    edited November 2022

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
    Apart from a small part time job after having brought up our 3 children she receives a pension of £4,576 pa at the age of 83
    So for 23 years, in todays terms she has had £105,248 out despite paying very little in?

    Not that bad really in PB Tory mindset surely.

    Your daughters and Granddaughters if you have them will have a much worse deal.
    She only qualified for her pension when I retired in 2009 and seems you think she should be grateful for a state pension of £4,576 pa

    It is a good job that I saved into my company pension for decades
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    glw said:

    At first sight this looks to be a good and well-balanced budget, given the starting position.

    I completely agree, given what is happening this is about as rational a response as you could hope for, though I still think the triple lock has to go when circumstances improve.
    Yes. The triple lock is a daft policy in the long term, because of its ratchet effect. It should be abandoned as soon as politically possible (which may be never, unfortunately).

    However (and there's huge confusion about this), the fact that the triple lock is a bad idea in the long term doesn't at all mean that state pensions shouldn't increase, along with working-age benefits, in line with inflation in the short term. The two are completely separate points. Anyone dependent on the state pension is by definition on a low or very low income, and therefore in present circumstances exceedingly vulnerable to inflation - especially since inflation at the moment is especially high for energy and food, which are not only non-discretionary but also form a disproportionately large part of the spending of the low-paid.

    So Hunt is right to up both state pensions and benefits by inflation in this budget.

    Of course, pensioners as a whole are not getting anything like an inflation-linked increase in their incomes. Those with defined-contribution pensions will typically have bought a fixed annuity, and get no increase at all in that part of their income. Even those on defined benefit schemes will typically not get the full 10.1% - many schemes are capped at 5%.
    The state pension is a benefit like any other and should be treated as such. Increase by inflation - but means test it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Eabhal said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s no way anyone is going to cancel HS2. Last Sunday when out with my older daughter in Bucks I drove under a completed section of the track with cranes building more

    It is ABSOLUTELY BLOODY ENORMOUS

    Both me and the kiddo said “omg what’s that”?

    It was so big, looming out of the autumn mist, it looked otherworldly. A vast alien structure landing on earth

    It’s too far gone to cancel

    Agreed. Anyone who says now to cancel doesn't live nearby. We live about 5 miles from the HS2 route in Bucks. If you go and stand on top of Coombe Hill in Bucks, right next to Chequers, you can see the line of building works scythe through the land. I think it was the wrong thing to do for a number of reasons but there is no point stopping it now.
    SUNK COST FALLACY KLAXON

    Use the resources being burnt up by HS2 to do Northern Powerhouse or more Nuke plants or whatever.
    Would take our governments about a decade and a half just to do the cost benefit analysis of any such move...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    edited November 2022
    Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    Shocking
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
    Forgive me for not keeping up with the politics of this, but…

    Isn’t the main stumbling block that we need to build a big expensive tunnel under the Pennines?

    Is this bit, now, being funded?

    There’s a great sim game, very old now, called “railroad tycoon 3” which had very advanced economic modelling.

    On the UK map, it always ended up making long term financial sense for your railway company to borrow a huge amount of money and fork out for a tunnel under the Pennines!
  • Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    I understand a £300 addition fuel allowance to all pensioners
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    DavidL said:

    Big budget. Biggest of this Parliament. The budgets up to end of this Parliament will be small change compared with this.

    Growth forecasts as bad as feared. We can only hope that these forecasts prove pessimistic.

    Hope?

    Or ask why do we already have growth problems, and then expect the worst?



    What is Islam suggesting the differential is, incompetent Tory government, Brexit? The mess left by the last Labour government?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706

    Oh Dear. Chief Secretary now on Politics Live. Claims the reason for the black hole is because of Covid and Russia. They then play a clip of Sunak in August saying how he will cut taxes. Faisal Islam asks what might have happened between August and now....

    A significant part of it is that the Govt has retained Truss's NI cut.

    So we have other tax rises to fund the NI cut.

    Of course the NI cut was only reversing the NI rise last April but it is a cut if you compare to a September baseline.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158

    Regardless of the content of the budget, any sensible Tory must be surely thinking "why the f**k haven't we had Hunt as PM for the last 5 years?" Smooth, unruffled, serious, heavyweight. Compare with Johnson, Truss and yes, even Sunak and he's way, way better.

    You Tories must be bonkers.

    Not able to inhabit Brexit fantasy island. This is a life changing disability in the Conservative Party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited November 2022

    DavidL said:

    Big budget. Biggest of this Parliament. The budgets up to end of this Parliament will be small change compared with this.

    Growth forecasts as bad as feared. We can only hope that these forecasts prove pessimistic.

    Hope?

    Or ask why do we already have growth problems, and then expect the worst?

    What is Islam suggesting the differential is, incompetent Tory government, Brexit? The mess left by the last Labour government?
    What's Germany's excuse / problem? They seem to be doing a lot worse than France and Italy, which basically no growth either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale

    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    It's been on the cards for about 10 years at least:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Powerhouse_Rail

    Both parties nominally support it. But there's a big gap between 'support' and 'fund'.
    Imagine if government had issued bonds to fund it a decade ago.

    Or if Cameron had done it, rather than holding a referendum on Brexit...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    This is just Northern Powerhouse Rail mate. Discussed at length on here in the past (particularly links to HS2 and going over to Hull, I think).
    Indeed. But I’ve only just grasped how much it makes sense

    Generally I don’t get involved in PB railway infrastructure debates. Not my field
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    MikeL said:

    Oh Dear. Chief Secretary now on Politics Live. Claims the reason for the black hole is because of Covid and Russia. They then play a clip of Sunak in August saying how he will cut taxes. Faisal Islam asks what might have happened between August and now....

    A significant part of it is that the Govt has retained Truss's NI cut.

    So we have other tax rises to fund the NI cut.

    Of course the NI cut was only reversing the NI rise last April but it is a cut if you compare to a September baseline.
    Another significant part of it is the cost of bucking the energy markets till April.

    Another significant part of it was Sunak not being honest back in August.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
    Apart from a small part time job after having brought up our 3 children she receives a pension of £4,576 pa at the age of 83
    So for 23 years, in todays terms she has had £105,248 out despite paying very little in?

    Not that bad really in PB Tory mindset surely.

    Your daughters and Granddaughters if you have them will have a much worse deal.
    She only qualified for her pension when I retired in 2009 and seems you think she should be grateful for a state pension of £4,576 pa

    It is a good job that I saved into my company pension for decades
    I dont think she should necessarily be grateful but I suggest she should have the self awareness that future generations have got and will continue to get a worse deal.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    Well, yes. But they should have been fast tracking this for years before now. The fact that they haven’t is because their sensibilities are not in line with spending significant amounts of money in the north. They had a golden opportunity to show they were different and they fudged it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706

    Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    Shocking

    Correct - the media haven't really reported the £400 much.

    Average household energy going from £2,100 to £3,000.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal constituencies…
    Well, yes. But they should have been fast tracking this for years before now. The fact that they haven’t is because their sensibilities are not in line with spending significant amounts of money in the north. They had a golden opportunity to show they were different and they fudged it.

    Yes. A fuck up

    But anyway. Get it done NOW
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.


    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I

    saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
    Do tell…

  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    ping said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
    Forgive me for not keeping up with the politics of this, but…

    Isn’t the main stumbling block that we need to build a big expensive tunnel under the Pennines?

    Is this bit, now, being funded?
    Um that's completely and utterly gone. Northern Power Rail is currently some minor signal improvements in few places and a couple of miles of additional tracks at one log jam point.

    The original build a new cross Pennine route via including Bradford disappeared years ago.

    Currently the biggest issue is that HS2 and NPR can't have a tunnel in Manchester and viaducts will be used instead which blocks off whole areas from sane redevelopment.
  • MaxPB said:

    Anything interesting? I've been in meetings all morning.

    Triple lock kept.

    In short you and I are going to pay more taxes for pensioners to live in luxury.
    Luxury?

    Really??

    Most pensioners survive on less than your annual shoe budget.
    My wife's pension is £4,576 per annum
    Why?
    Apart from a small part time job after having brought up our 3 children she receives a pension of £4,576 pa at the age of 83
    So for 23 years, in todays terms she has had £105,248 out despite paying very little in?

    Not that bad really in PB Tory mindset surely.

    Your daughters and Granddaughters if you have them will have a much worse deal.
    She only qualified for her pension when I retired in 2009 and seems you think she should be grateful for a state pension of £4,576 pa

    It is a good job that I saved into my company pension for decades
    I dont think she should necessarily be grateful but I suggest she should have the self awareness that future generations have got and will continue to get a worse deal.
    She never complains or mentions it but I made sure throughout my working lifetime I invested into my own company's pension scheme which secured our retirement

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    MikeL said:

    Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    Shocking

    Correct - the media haven't really reported the £400 much.

    Average household energy going from £2,100 to £3,000.
    So when he talks about those with the broadest shoulders he means everyone except Pensioners and those on means tested benefits

    The RMT, RCN, CWU, UCU all need to up their pay demands.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited November 2022

    Reeves is great.

    PM in the making.

    Deep voice, short hair, business-like attire. It all fits.
    Thatcherite Policies
    Zzzzzzzz
    Yes that too

    On a par with SKS
    You could probably get a GCSE computer science pupil (predicted grade: D) to devise you an Owls algorithm.

    Save you the bother of posting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    HYUFD said:

    So as expected tough decisions by Hunt to deal with the deficit.

    Freeze in income tax threshold, reduction in additional rate threshold and an reduction in energy bills support a major contrast to Kwarteng's mini budget.

    However state pensioners and those on benefits and with tax credits will still see a rise in line with inflation.

    Little doubt too a future Labour government would face similar tough choices

    Etc. But I fear the "high wage high skill economy" remains the remotest of prospects. It's become something you just say out of custom before moving onto the substance. A bit like "how are you?"
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.

    He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
    Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
    The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.

    They are already playing out their plan...

    Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.

    The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.

    Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
    £150m isn't going to make any difference to the level of debt Morrisons now has.

    And unless I'm mistaken the plans to sell off food manufacturing and the other bits that made Morrisons decent have failed to find buyers stupid enough to pay the prices being asked.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    edited November 2022
    kinabalu said:



    Etc. But I fear the "high wage high skill economy" remains the remotest of prospects. It's become something you just say out of custom before moving onto the substance. A bit like "how are you?"

    "Working tirelessly".
    How about you ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    I now await apologies from the “it was a missile” mob and the “it was a boat” brigade

    I still have no idea why they were all so fucking desperate for it not to be a truck.
    Me neither. It became some religion dispute. Quite bizarre!

    The simplest, easiest, most obvious explanation was: a truck. It’s not exactly amazing it turned out to be: a truck

    Why all the fuss?
    You were the one who posted up links to evidence which you said was persuasive that it was done by a guided missile, and you also said that if it was a boat operation that would be impressive. As usual you have all the bases covered and would appear to be arguing with yourself!
    No I didn’t. I said it was a truck

    I might have explored other possibilities - as one should - but I never wavered from thinking a truck was most likely. Because it is. Occam’s razor

    This is such a bizarre argument. I can’t even remember why some PBers were so religiously attached to alternative explanations. It’s not like it changes anything
    You seem to be the only one arguing about it.
    Leon said:


    It could of course have been a combo of several events. Pillars weakened by sabotage, limpet bombs underneath, the truck explodes simultaneously

    Leon said:


    This military dude thinks it was a missile

    "Kerch Bridge Missile Pictures: All the evidence you need that the Kerch Bridge was hit by a missile and not a truck bomb as Russian media claims.

    Pay attention to where you see the light from the explosion, it’s not coming from the truck.

    First, .1 seconds before"

    https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1578739132838207488?s=20&t=LBmX9csAkFlUd-v3OuNv9g

    Leon said:


    If it was a clever SBS style waterborne attack that is highly impressive. And suggests that Ukraine might have been responsible the the Nordstream explosion

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    Shocking

    Hunt cannot afford to pay everyone’s fuel bills. Nor can the tax payer. The current scheme is not sustainable so more of the costs have to be borne by households not on benefits.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited November 2022
    The OBR are saying (I think) that real household incomes will be back to 2013 levels. The strange thing is that in 2013 we didn't all feel especially poor; children didn't live on boiled gravel; foodbanks were a fad.

    Is this all being a bit overdone?

    BTW, generally Tory I currently plan to vote Labour, along with a few million others. But.

    It may make no difference overall, but the Labour front bench have no-one who can sound as if they know what they are talking about on fiscal, monetary, tax, spend, economic policy matters. It's their big weakness. Reeves today was just dire.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    ping said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
    Forgive me for not keeping up with the politics of this, but…

    Isn’t the main stumbling block that we need to build a big expensive tunnel under the Pennines?

    Is this bit, now, being funded?
    AIUI, having not seen links to tech specs, but countless glossy brochures, is that the NPR option being pushed for goes approximately.

    Liv - (new) - MCR Airport - Pic - (upgraded Ordsall Chord) - Vic - (upgraded Calder Valley) - Bradford - Leeds

    which is not a very straight line

    but could als be some ambition for new route Pic - Bradford or could fall back onto further upgraded Transpennine Route via Huddersfield if government get their way.

    I'm.not sure there is a full public technical proposal, only high level options.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    eek said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Benefits rise with inflation

    Food inflation hurting the poorest is 16%. There needs to be an intervention on eggs and milk.
    No there doesn't. The government can't step in for everything and everyone. Even this level of intervention in the energy market is too much. Wages are rising at 10% for minimum wage workers and about 6-7% for everyone else. It's time to let the market dictate prices and people be responsible for their own spending again. The state clearly can't take on the burden and if we want to get inflation under control there will need to be a level of demand destruction, impossible to do that if the state intervenes and subsidises consumers and industry.
    Remember that the food price crisis is partly from rising commodity and production prices, and partly from interest rates buggering the venture capital deals that have broken Asda and Morrisons. They literally can't afford to invest into price because they are in very deep shit. And with them leaving prices high the market price is established for Tesco and Sainsburys to follow.

    Meanwhile, smart shoppers flock to Aldi and Lidl. Both of whom are also buncing profit margins by being able to set prices lower than the higher market price of the big boys. Hence the whopping profit just announced by Lidl.
    As I said previously, one or both of Morrisons and Asda will fall early next year. The lenders will take over and float the businesses once they stabilise them.
    Both are utterly and truly fucked. Trading with them is entertaining. An example from a former member of my team who had an online meeting with her Morrisons buyer on Tuesday.

    He was physically summoned from the online meeting he was in and disappeared. Following day: "Sorry. Something big happened internally. We were all pulled into a meeting for the rest of the day and not allowed to communicate with anyone outside the building". And "are there any jobs going with you"
    Got to say Morrisons is dire - to the extent that I now go to Sainsburys instead (and I hate the layout of the local Sainsburys). And if Morrisons are getting rid of their buyers things aren't going to improve.
    The Private Equity owners didn't buy Morrisons to make it a stellar supermarket. Morrisons aren't the same company they were under their tight Yorkshire founder.

    They are already playing out their plan...

    Morrisons plans to sell-off some of its supermarkets in an effort to raise cash.

    The grocer‘s owner CD&R is seeking to sell and lease back five Morrisons supermarkets for £150 million in what will be the first such deal to be sanctioned in its 123-year history. Morrisons owns 86% of its 497 supermarkets – a higher proportion than any of its major grocery rivals.

    Its the classic asset stripping model, sell the real estate, lease it back, pay yourself out, f##k the actual business.
    £150m isn't going to make any difference to the level of debt Morrisons now has..
    No, but there are another 400 or so after that five.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    edited November 2022
    ping said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mr. Leon, you think they're building HS2 to Leeds?

    Yes, that’s a different question

    The one thing we really should do is build a trans-pennine high speed rail linking Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manc Liverpool

    I cannot think of anything that would be more transformative. An Elizabeth Line for the North
    100%. Well said.

    I am amazed that Labour hasn't seen this opportunity for investment.

    The trains up north that don't go to London are almost universally shite.
    Wasn’t this one of the Truss/Kwarteng plans? Liz Line for the North?

    Either way it is an excellent idea. If any government is serious about Levelling Up this is what they should do. Turn all the northern cities into one mighty conurbation. Seize the Economies of scale


    It would also be pretty popular in some marginal


    constituencies…
    I reckon you could get journey times from Newcastle (at one end) to Liverpool (at the other end) down to under two hours, even if you stopped at Sheffield which would of course be a detour.

    Biggest issue is getting cross Manchester - but I saw interesting plans on that earlier this week.
    Forgive me for not keeping up with the politics of this, but…

    Isn’t the main stumbling block that we need to build a big expensive tunnel under the Pennines?

    Is this bit, now, being funded?
    Perhaps.

    The problem with NPR is that it can mean one of a number of things.

    In its current form, the bits across the Pennines are simply using existing alignments via Hope Valley and Diggle.

    There are other proposals, though. And if NPR goes to Bradford - which was once the preferred solution and now appears to be swinging back in favour - that implies, if not a massive tunnel, then some pretty expensive and non-straightforward engineering.

    Worth saying though that tunnelling isn't actually that expensive. Ideally of course you'd just build a railway over a featureless plain, but once you get to the stage of having to address ownerships, demolitions, watercourses, landscape features, utilities, local pressure groups, environmental designations ... just putting it underground starts to look a lot less unattractive.


    EDIT: However Hunt appears to be confirming 'core' NPR rather than 'full' NPR which I infer as Manchester-Leeds via the existing Diggle route rather than via Bradford.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    DavidL said:

    Has Hunt just put non pensioners energy bills up by a further £900 PA unless they are on means tested benefits?

    No £400 and cap raised from £2.5k to £3k

    Shocking

    Hunt cannot afford to pay everyone’s fuel bills. Nor can the tax payer. The current scheme is not sustainable so more of the costs have to be borne by households not on benefits.
    Yup, there's simply no need for the government to subsidise my energy bills.
This discussion has been closed.