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If New Hampshire flips the the Republicans are in for good night – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000 said:

    The Dems are having a bad time* because:

    (a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
    (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
    (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer

    Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.

    However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)

    * Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet

    Vance is the odd one - he should have been better than he has been.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    New: Stephen Massey starting tomorrow as chairman of the Tory party, as per email to staff this evening
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1590100933005889537

    I thought Zahawi was party chair???
  • Alistair said:

    Republican Majority in the House of Representatives @1.06 is a money purchase order is it not?

    Said that last week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited November 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    New: Stephen Massey starting tomorrow as chairman of the Tory party, as per email to staff this evening
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1590100933005889537

    I thought Zahawi was party chair???

    They always have co-chairs, do they not? An MP in Cabinet, and a money man to shake down doners (and, coincidentally, usually get a knighthood at some point?)

    Edit:

    Wiki suggests not every single chair held the position jointly with someone else, but the last co-chair was certainly the money shaker.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rcs1000 said:

    The Dems are having a bad time* because:

    (a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
    (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
    (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer

    Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.

    However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)

    * Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet

    Yes, but a lot of these 'real crazes' won there Primaries in part because of millions of spending by the DNC, to ensure the most extreme republican possible was the opponent.

    If Dems hold on in these seats they can say it was worth it I suppose, but it was IMO highly irresponsible, and will look so if some/all of the extreme republicans win.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    If "the economy stupid" still holds, that's a great incentive for Putin to keep the Ukraine war going and hope the financial consequences deliver America to his fanboy Trump.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Under the proposed new boundaries I am no longer in a Newcastle seat, despite living within the city limits. Not a fan.

    Which seat are you in now IYDMMA?
    A simple process of identifying the only Newcastle City ward not in a Newcastle seat.
    And the constituency that is in.
    A name change to Upper Tyne might make it more palatable.
    At least they haven't brought back the abomination that was the Tynebridge constituency. Half in the Toon, half in the Heed. Ridiculous. I got to vote in the seat twice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    kle4 said:

    It is all the fault of the French as usual.

    Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.

    The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.

    “Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”

    Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/qatari-world-cup-ambassador-calls-homosexuality-damage-in-the-mind-hlv7q8ttm

    Who better to spot corrupt dealings than a President of Fifa?
    I used to say that the EU should have hired Chirac to lead a corruption investigation department on a basis of 20% of the money recovered.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2



    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Time for the polls where people say they're angry about everything
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Pulpstar said:

    Time for the polls where people say they're angry about everything

    Gavin Esler published a book in 1996 (which I bought at the time) called "The United States of Anger". And that was supposed to be one of the more happy decades in recent American history.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Dems are having a bad time* because:

    (a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
    (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
    (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer

    Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.

    However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)

    * Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet

    Yes, but a lot of these 'real crazes' won there Primaries in part because of millions of spending by the DNC, to ensure the most extreme republican possible was the opponent.

    If Dems hold on in these seats they can say it was worth it I suppose, but it was IMO highly irresponsible, and will look so if some/all of the extreme republicans win.
    Was that a widespread tactic by the Dems? Thought it was just in a couple of races.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    edited November 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Under the proposed new boundaries I am no longer in a Newcastle seat, despite living within the city limits. Not a fan.

    Which seat are you in now IYDMMA?
    A simple process of identifying the only Newcastle City ward not in a Newcastle seat.
    And the constituency that is in.
    A name change to Upper Tyne might make it more palatable.
    At least they haven't brought back the abomination that was the Tynebridge constituency. Half in the Toon, half in the Heed. Ridiculous. I got to vote in the seat twice.
    Indeed.
    Toon being worth almost precisely 2.5 seats doesn't make it easy.
    Given the constraints they haven't done badly in this area imho.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    Pulpstar said:

    Time for the polls where people say they're angry about everything

    I'm angry about the level of anger out there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    It is all the fault of the French as usual.

    Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.

    The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.

    “Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”

    Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/qatari-world-cup-ambassador-calls-homosexuality-damage-in-the-mind-hlv7q8ttm

    Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.

    If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
    I don't actually disagree, but that's an interesting attitude when in so many other things the spirit of the times, at least officially, is not to let things slide just because they were considered ok before.

    That's why some people will feel the pressure to comment or make a protest much more than others.
    I wouldn't go, I have ticked World Cup off my to do list.

    But we have football teams owned by Qatar, Saudi, and other Gulf States, we have teams regularly in the Gulf for winter training. We sign players from countries where attitudes to women and homosexuality are worse than 50 years ago here. We start the World Cup campaign by playing a country whose government beats teenage girls to death for wearing improper headgear.

    Let's not get too prissy about Qatars human rights record. If we are that bothered we should stop selling them weapons.

  • Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,718

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Fake news!
    Live free or die.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    "A distraction from the good work of the government."
    He may be right for once. Cos I certainly haven't noticed very much of it.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    FPT:
    biggles said:


    Heh. They will never know the pain of iteratively creating a boot disc. All part of the fun.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    It is all the fault of the French as usual.

    Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.

    The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.

    “Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”

    Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/qatari-world-cup-ambassador-calls-homosexuality-damage-in-the-mind-hlv7q8ttm

    Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.

    If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
    I don't actually disagree, but that's an interesting attitude when in so many other things the spirit of the times, at least officially, is not to let things slide just because they were considered ok before.

    That's why some people will feel the pressure to comment or make a protest much more than others.
    I wouldn't go, I have ticked World Cup off my to do list.

    But we have football teams owned by Qatar, Saudi, and other Gulf States, we have teams regularly in the Gulf for winter training. We sign players from countries where attitudes to women and homosexuality are worse than 50 years ago here. We start the World Cup campaign by playing a country whose government beats teenage girls to death for wearing improper headgear.

    Let's not get too prissy about Qatars human rights record. If we are that bothered we should stop selling them weapons.

    I'm not saying we should be prissy. But a lot of people thesedays are pretty open that these matters should be raised, at all times. Our national government or businesses selling arms seems to be beside the point, since it wasn't about government action, but individuals and groups - they are also being urged to speak out after all, regardless of whether the government does.

    I think that a lot to put on people, but I don't think it surprising that others are find to put that pressure on, even if arms are being sold to Qatar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    The polls are pretty clear about what's going to happen. Not much need for rumours.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Dems are having a bad time* because:

    (a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
    (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
    (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer

    Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.

    However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)

    * Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet

    Yes, but a lot of these 'real crazes' won there Primaries in part because of millions of spending by the DNC, to ensure the most extreme republican possible was the opponent.

    If Dems hold on in these seats they can say it was worth it I suppose, but it was IMO highly irresponsible, and will look so if some/all of the extreme republicans win.
    Was that a widespread tactic by the Dems? Thought it was just in a couple of races.
    I don't have ha full list, in NH they spent over $1,000,000 on the GOP Senet candidate, which was more than the 2 Republicans spent combined. and $250,000 on the 2 house seats.

    Here is a link to an article from The Hill about 4 govern elections, (including Lake in Arizona) and the assertion that over $10,000,000 has been spent this way.

    It might only be a few races, but then only a few races are really competitive.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    @AndyJS Cramlington and Killingworth
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited November 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
    I think they will get PA, NV and GA and AZ too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    kinabalu said:

    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
    CNN exit poll says 27% of voters are most exercised by abortion, just 2nd behind 31% worried about inflation

    That seems encouraging for Dems. But as the anchor pointed out, a bunch of that 27% could be anti abortion…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
    I think they will get PA, NV and GA. Have put in a saver bet for 54 in case they grab AZ too.
    That would be 53, PA is a defence. They need NH, CO or Wash for 54
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    I'm looking forward to the actual budget being out so we can see an end to all the endless rumours
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    I'm surprised we haven't heard more about a return of the Health and Social Care Levy. Still time...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
    CNN exit poll says 27% of voters are most exercised by abortion, just 2nd behind 31% worried about inflation

    That seems encouraging for Dems. But as the anchor pointed out, a bunch of that 27% could be anti abortion…
    Yes, those CNN meta teasers can confuse more than enlighten.

    R4 World Service special starts at 11.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    The polls are pretty clear about what's going to happen. Not much need for rumours.
    Polls are not always right. There is always room for rumour, you just cannot rely on it fully.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Andy_JS said:

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
    I think they will get PA, NV and GA. Have put in a saver bet for 54 in case they grab AZ too.
    That would be 53, PA is a defence. They need NH, CO or Wash for 54
    Surely AZ is more like than NH or CO
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    For much of the Autumn Statement run-up those working on it have been determined not to raise the rates of the 3 big taxes (NI, income, VAT).

    BUT… over weekend during talks it’s become clear how hard it is to keep that **and** protect pension triple lock + benefits price rise.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1590107503580545024
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    If he increases NI AGAIN, other than extending the scope if it to apply to all income, from all ages, both earned and unearned, then I'm voting for Keir Starmer's Labour. 🤬
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
    CNN exit poll says 27% of voters are most exercised by abortion, just 2nd behind 31% worried about inflation

    That seems encouraging for Dems. But as the anchor pointed out, a bunch of that 27% could be anti abortion…
    DO NOT LISTEN TO THE CNN EXIT POLL ABOUT ISSUES.

    They are a load of shit.

    1) The polls haven't closed yet so how can they have an accurate sample
    2) They don't have an accurate sample, exit polls have been massively off in the last 3 election cycles. They have to go through massive validated voted file reweighting to get anything useful from them.
    3) They are a load of shit.

    Don't fall for it. Don't watch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    At this rate I expect they will be hoping for public support out of sheer surprise that not every single tax is raised, and that people will be able to keep more than 75p of their own cash.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
    I think they will get PA, NV and GA. Have put in a saver bet for 54 in case they grab AZ too.
    That would be 53, PA is a defence. They need NH, CO or Wash for 54
    Surely AZ is more like than NH or CO
    AZ is already included. 53 is Ga, Nv and Az and holding Pa, for 54 one of Co, NH, Wash needed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
    CNN exit poll says 27% of voters are most exercised by abortion, just 2nd behind 31% worried about inflation

    That seems encouraging for Dems. But as the anchor pointed out, a bunch of that 27% could be anti abortion…
    Indeed, the anti-abortion crowd being more motivated has surely been a thing before, given how events played out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022
    Right off to bed. Confident that on-the-day ballot drops will win Nevada for the Dems and that late voting young first time female voters sweeps the board for the Dems across all 52 states.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    tyson said:

    A link to CNN....it goes blank for the adverts for 3 mns and then returns....

    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200/1-1-0-2

    FWIW...I genuinely think this will be one of those nights when the left have been underscored by the polls. Possible signs of "shy lefties"...or basically women who think they have a right to make decisions over their own bodies and vote likewise

    A female wave against the GOP would be an inspirational complement to what's happening in Iran. The early signs aren't great but here's hoping.
    CNN exit poll says 27% of voters are most exercised by abortion, just 2nd behind 31% worried about inflation

    That seems encouraging for Dems. But as the anchor pointed out, a bunch of that 27% could be anti abortion…
    DO NOT LISTEN TO THE CNN EXIT POLL ABOUT ISSUES.

    They are a load of shit.

    1) The polls haven't closed yet so how can they have an accurate sample
    2) They don't have an accurate sample, exit polls have been massively off in the last 3 election cycles. They have to go through massive validated voted file reweighting to get anything useful from them.
    3) They are a load of shit.

    Don't fall for it. Don't watch.
    Thanks. But I’m quite capable of sifting the news
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Leon said:

    Rumours

    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Lane is falling short, I've just seen on TikTok.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Have to say the Republicans on Fox (and there is not much else) are looking even smugger than usual. Ominous.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    “Sir Gavin said he "refuted" how his conduct had been characterised.”


    He’s not “refuting” the conduct, he has no evidence to do so, only how it’s been characterised. Only he has no evidence for that either.

    So he’s not “refuting” anything.

    Why won’t these people go away?
  • This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    I wonder if they would get more money by moving the threshold down rather than by increasing the rate at the current threshold.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    Wow, that would certainly bury Trussonomics. They do a lot of kite flying though.
  • Have to say its rather ironic if the backlash to the Tories cutting the additional rate leads to them increasing it instead.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    If he increases NI AGAIN, other than extending the scope if it to apply to all income, from all ages, both earned and unearned, then I'm voting for Keir Starmer's Labour. 🤬
    Yesterday they briefed that manifesto commitments on income, NI and VAT would be kept to.

    Today...

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    edited November 2022
    DavidL said:

    Have to say the Republicans on Fox (and there is not much else) are looking even smugger than usual. Ominous.

    Well the Democrats probably never officially win a nationwide election ever again. Would tend to make someone smug if that was what they were aiming for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited November 2022
    DavidL said:

    Have to say the Republicans on Fox (and there is not much else) are looking even smugger than usual.

    That doesn't sound healthy, for them or the world. Might we not find ourselves sucked into a smug singularity, a smugularity if you will?

    Not even light shall escape its pull.
  • Balrog said:

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    I wonder if they would get more money by moving the threshold down rather than by increasing the rate at the current threshold.
    They could reduce the threshold to £100,000 rather than £150,000 whilst leaving the rate at 45% and this would probably raise more money. However this would create a marginal rate of 65% between £100,000 and around £125,000 due to the personal allowance restriction which is unlikely to be scrapped.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    If he increases NI AGAIN, other than extending the scope if it to apply to all income, from all ages, both earned and unearned, then I'm voting for Keir Starmer's Labour. 🤬
    You'll have to ask us nicely first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not quite, since he was not afforded full status, but close enough given he was going to be important enough to attend it.
    He was supposed to be the Mandelson of this government, wasn't he?
    Truss stole his mantle.

    All looked a bit sad when the fighter hit the canvas, never to rise....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    If they increase the upper earnings limit on Employees National Insurance then I think that creates a new higher marginal tax rate in the system.
  • Dixville has voted:


    Tim Callery
    @TimCalWMUR
    Some early results coming in. @GovChrisSununu, @SenatorHassan
    and
    @RepAnnieKuster
    take the top spots in their races in Dixville.


    https://twitter.com/TimCalWMUR/status/1590070562462003200



  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    It is all the fault of the French as usual.

    Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.

    The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.

    “Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”

    Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/qatari-world-cup-ambassador-calls-homosexuality-damage-in-the-mind-hlv7q8ttm

    Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.

    If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
    I don't actually disagree, but that's an interesting attitude when in so many other things the spirit of the times, at least officially, is not to let things slide just because they were considered ok before.

    That's why some people will feel the pressure to comment or make a protest much more than others.
    I wouldn't go, I have ticked World Cup off my to do list.

    But we have football teams owned by Qatar, Saudi, and other Gulf States, we have teams regularly in the Gulf for winter training. We sign players from countries where attitudes to women and homosexuality are worse than 50 years ago here. We start the World Cup campaign by playing a country whose government beats teenage girls to death for wearing improper headgear.

    Let's not get too prissy about Qatars human rights record. If we are that bothered we should stop selling them weapons.

    I'm not saying we should be prissy. But a lot of people thesedays are pretty open that these matters should be raised, at all times. Our national government or businesses selling arms seems to be beside the point, since it wasn't about government action, but individuals and groups - they are also being urged to speak out after all, regardless of whether the government does.

    I think that a lot to put on people, but I don't think it surprising that others are find to put that pressure on, even if arms are being sold to Qatar.
    Indeed.
    Qatar has spent a lot of money trying to sportwash their reputation. If it backfires and makes lots of people change their attitude from indifference to Qatar, to positively hostile, that would be a great result. If it discourages other shitty countries from hosting world cups so much the better. Finding it hard to follow Foxy's argument here, seems to be the worst kind of cynical whataboutery in favour of apathy.
  • Trip Gabriel
    @tripgabriel

    Trump has a long history of insulting and humiliating others,
    @maggieNYT writes.

    "But now, advisers say, Trump is quicker to anger and frequently in a state of near-rage about not being president anymore."


    Eugene Daniels
    @EugeneDaniels2

    Trump on DeSantis: “If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.”
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: Stephen Massey starting tomorrow as chairman of the Tory party, as per email to staff this evening
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1590100933005889537

    I thought Zahawi was party chair???

    They always have co-chairs, do they not? An MP in Cabinet, and a money man to shake down doners (and, coincidentally, usually get a knighthood at some point?)

    Edit:

    Wiki suggests not every single chair held the position jointly with someone else, but the last co-chair was certainly the money shaker.
    A peerage if they give £3m personally
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    At this rate I expect they will be hoping for public support out of sheer surprise that not every single tax is raised, and that people will be able to keep more than 75p of their own cash.
    In total?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited November 2022
    DougSeal said:

    “Sir Gavin said he "refuted" how his conduct had been characterised.”


    He’s not “refuting” the conduct, he has no evidence to do so, only how it’s been characterised. Only he has no evidence for that either.

    So he’s not “refuting” anything.

    Why won’t these people go away?

    Unfortunately, using refute to mean rebut or reject or repudiate is very common.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Have to say its rather ironic if the backlash to the Tories cutting the additional rate leads to them increasing it instead.

    And all under the same mandate.
  • IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    To be fair, the first few times we did it the locals dealt with them for us pretty effectively. Shame they weren't able to continue that admirable record.
  • kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Dems are having a bad time* because:

    (a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
    (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
    (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer

    Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.

    However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance
    themselves.)

    * Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet

    Yes, but a lot of these 'real crazes' won there Primaries in part because of millions of spending by the DNC, to ensure the most extreme republican possible was the opponent.

    If Dems hold on in these seats they can say it was worth it I suppose, but it was IMO highly irresponsible, and will look so if some/all of the extreme republicans win.
    Was that a widespread tactic by the
    Dems? Thought it was just in a couple of races.
    The couple of seats being the swing ones.

    It was deeply irresponsible and reckless, and slightly at odds with the talk about wanting a less toxic form of politics.

    When something is wrong, it's wrong.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Trip Gabriel
    @tripgabriel

    Trump has a long history of insulting and humiliating others,
    @maggieNYT writes.

    "But now, advisers say, Trump is quicker to anger and frequently in a state of near-rage about not being president anymore."


    Eugene Daniels
    @EugeneDaniels2

    Trump on DeSantis: “If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.”

    over the last few weeks/months De Santis has been travailing the contrary's holding 'joint fundraisers with many republicans in tight races, he had made adds endorsing helping candidates, and otherwise been helpful to the GOP, trump mean while has sat on a big pile of cash that could have been used to help republicans.

    Assuming tonight is successful for republicans and it looks that way right now, I think De Santis benefits.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    edited November 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Going in on 53 GOP senate seats

    I've bet on 51 seats but not particularly confident about it.
    I think they will get PA, NV and GA. Have put in a saver bet for 54 in case they grab AZ too.
    That would be 53, PA is a defence. They need NH, CO or Wash for 54
    Surely AZ is more like than NH or CO
    Yes: but they're starting on 50. AZ, NV and GA make 53... and then you need one of NH, CO and WA to make 54.

    CO - 538 polling average has the Dems more than 8 points up, so it would need a monumental error to go R. Possible, sure, but that's a pretty big ask.

    Washington is much more likely. The race has really narrowed, and a 10 point lead a month ago is now just 5 points. Still: that would be a pretty big polling error.

    New Hampshire is closer yet. On 538, Hassan leads by just over two percentage points. It only needs the Republicans to outperform slightly to result in a gain.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    will that get her ostracised form Hollywood/pop celebrates would?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    It’s too late but I think they should have gone for:

    5% increase in state / quasi state employee wages
    5% increase in pensions and welfare payments
    5% surcharge (for one year) on top rate of tax
    1% increase in the basic rate & the higher rate
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Right it's 11pm so that's me.

    R4 US Election Special. Bring a bit of class to proceedings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    She voted for Rick Caruso, who used to be a Republican, and is now a Democrat. (Really, though, he's run on a "I'm not a politician" ticket.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    If they increase the upper earnings limit on Employees National Insurance then I think that creates a new higher marginal tax rate in the system.
    The whole 20-40 system people always think of is bunk, the real rise above 50k or whatever is 10% currently not 20%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    carnforth said:
    Very sad news. RIP.
  • BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    will that get her ostracised form Hollywood/pop celebrates would?
    I thought we established on last night's thread that she actually ended up voting Dem?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours

    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Lane is falling short, I've just seen on TikTok.
    She’s in the slow… track?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Love these first votes from Kentucky and Indiana they're always massively Republican lol
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    See. I'm dreadfully grateful we did.
  • carnforth said:
    That's sad news for us politicos.

    RIP.

    Seems to have been a slew of well known person deaths today.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    To be fair, the first few times we did it the locals dealt with them for us pretty effectively. Shame they weren't able to continue that admirable record.
    Victim blaming par excellence!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    Although let's remember Trump isn't very big on religion compared to others in the GOP.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,994
    edited November 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    This Daily Mail article mentions the possibility of the additional rate going up from 45% to 50%...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11405471/Prime-Minister-bring-levy-earners-bid-balance-countrys-finances.html

    If they increase the upper earnings limit on Employees National Insurance then I think that creates a new higher marginal tax rate in the system.
    The whole 20-40 system people always think of is bunk, the real rise above 50k or whatever is 10% currently not 20%.
    Indeed a young graduate supposedly on the 20% tax rate can be essentially paying just about the same real marginal tax rate as a non-graduate earning £99k per annum.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    will that get her ostracised form Hollywood/pop celebrates would?
    I think she was a fundy growing up anyway

  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Right it's 11pm so that's me.

    R4 US Election Special. Bring a bit of class to proceedings.

    I do wonder what the audience is for this.

    Even most of the election junkies on this site ain’t tuning in.

    Must bore the ordinary R4 listener senseless.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    It’s too late but I think they should have gone for:

    5% increase in state / quasi state employee wages
    5% increase in pensions and welfare payments
    5% surcharge (for one year) on top rate of tax
    1% increase in the basic rate & the higher rate
    Been saying for months 5% across the board could have been agreed with little issue.
    But they've let it spiral.
    2 changes of PM will do that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    She voted for Rick Caruso, who used to be a Republican, and is now a Democrat. (Really, though, he's run on a "I'm not a politician" ticket.)
    He quit the GOP 19 days ago…
  • IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    You were only supposed to establish a little farm or two and do some praying based on your sect.



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    ping said:

    kinabalu said:

    Right it's 11pm so that's me.

    R4 US Election Special. Bring a bit of class to proceedings.

    I do wonder what the audience is for this.

    Even most of the election junkies on this site ain’t tuning in.

    Must bore the ordinary R4 listener senseless.
    I think I'm going to listen to it. Wasn't planning to until I read the post.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    It’s too late but I think they should have gone for:

    5% increase in state / quasi state employee wages
    5% increase in pensions and welfare payments
    5% surcharge (for one year) on top rate of tax
    1% increase in the basic rate & the higher rate
    Been saying for months 5% across the board could have been agreed with little issue.
    But they've let it spiral.
    2 changes of PM will do that.
    Yep this is the best political solution.

    Just figure out what is fiscally viable and impose it across the board. Heavily cloak it in Osbornite “we’re all in this together” language.

    No arguments. The “fairness” issue goes away.

    Well, for a bit.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak is considering announcing a major expansion in the **top rate of income tax** next week.

    45p rate could rise or £150,000 threshold lower. National Insurance **employee** rise also being looked at. Part of scramble for more cash.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/08/rishi-sunak-could-raise-top-rate-income-tax-breaking-tories/

    It’s too late but I think they should have gone for:

    5% increase in state / quasi state employee wages
    5% increase in pensions and welfare payments
    5% surcharge (for one year) on top rate of tax
    1% increase in the basic rate & the higher rate
    Been saying for months 5% across the board could have been agreed with little issue.
    But they've let it spiral.
    2 changes of PM will do that.
    Nah, it doesn't matter what they did, there would have been an issue.

    Those who feel hard done by will always find a reason to complain. And the opposition and media will always find a way to magnify that, as its kind of their job.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    carnforth said:
    That's sad news for us politicos.

    RIP.

    Seems to have been a slew of well known person deaths today.
    Will somebody take that scythe off that man!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    She voted for Rick Caruso, who used to be a Republican, and is now a Democrat. (Really, though, he's run on a "I'm not a politician" ticket.)
    He quit the GOP 19 days ago…
    Source? Because all the campaign literature I've had from him has had "Democrat" on it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    carnforth said:
    That's sad news for us politicos.

    RIP.

    Seems to have been a slew of well known person deaths today.
    Is it a full moon?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Rumours


    WHERE ARE THE RUMOURS??

    Some people have voted GOP. Others have voted DEM :smiley:
    Katy Perry voted GOP
    She voted for Rick Caruso, who used to be a Republican, and is now a Democrat. (Really, though, he's run on a "I'm not a politician" ticket.)
    He quit the GOP 19 days ago…
    Source? Because all the campaign literature I've had from him has had "Democrat" on it.
    Ah - it's "18 days before filing for office" - see https://abc7.com/rick-caruso-karen-bass-los-angeles-mayors-race-democratic-party/12402900/

    So, back at the beginning of the year.

    (And note that he was Independent before that, and a registered Republican before that.)
  • Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    When we encouraged our religious nutters to sail west across the ocean, I am starting to feel that maybe we didn’t fully think it through?

    Although let's remember Trump isn't very big on religion compared to others in the GOP.
    He's big enough on it for the white christian nationalist whackos to vote for him despite his record as a philandering libertine whose only interest in Christ is to look at the size of the crowd who turn up for the Pope compared to his own outings.

This discussion has been closed.