NEW: Gavin Williamson keeps the Tory whip... for now.
Whips spox: “Sir Gavin Williamson has been clear that he will comply with the ongoing complaints process. It is right that we wait for that process to conclude.”
I have thought for some time that some (many?) Republican leaders have been lying, if only by omission, to stay away from trouble with Trump and Trumpistas.
There are many precedents for those kinds of deceptions in US politics. (And other places, so I hear.)
I can't applaud such deceptions in this situation -- but I might forgive them in the future, if they do the right things, later.
One very powerful motive: More and more Republican leaders have recognized that Trump is a loser in general elections, and are saying so. Latest big example: Mick Mulvaney.
Early data out of Maricopa pretty bleak for them too. Going to be a lonnnnnnng old night for Democrats
Is there an 'upper limit for the Repubs' number of senators that we should be sticking a few quid on? 54?
Probably 56 but thats almost impossible - hold Pa, take Ga, Az, NH, Nv and then Colorado and Washington 54 i think is upper end, 55 on a dream night for them.......
Edit - 53 looks relatively likely to me now however
Sacked as defence secretary for leaking from National Security Council. Sacked as education secretary over A-level exam chaos. Resigns as Cabinet Office minister after 2 weeks over bullying texts.
That's misleadingly simplistic. It overlooks (1) the GCSE exam chaos (2) the chaos over will they/won't they lockdown (3) the chaos over will they/won't they reopen (4) the failures over testing (5) the failure to issue timely and relevant health and safety guidelines (6) the disintegration of OFSTED under a woman who had failed cataclysmically but whose contract he extended (7) criminal breaches of health and safety law by the DfE (8) breaches of lockdown regulations by DfE staff (9) the failure to plan for the cancellation of exams even though it was obvious from October 2020 onwards that the ineptitude of the DfE would make it inevitable.
He wasn't just sacked because A-levels were in chaos. They've been in chaos ever since Spielman, Truss and Gibb between them fucked up the reforms. And two of those are still in post and one actually got promoted to be PM!
Talk about coincidence - Depp has just appeared on my tv in a scent ad. Not sporting that "hard party grandma" look as it happens. More his usual edgy jack tar.
Is that ad not 10 years old though?
Ah. Yes he did look quite fresh, come to think of it.
Phew my Ben Wallace as next out the cabinet tip is still live.
One highly unfortunate side effect of Williamson going is Braverman's position is now strengthened. Sunak can't afford to lose two ministers so soon after being elected, particularly not given there were rumblings about appointing them in the first place.
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
Managed to combine incompetence with being a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
Braverman next?
Can we please have a General Election?
The issue with that is of course a labour supporter wants a general election. We don’t need one. There is a government with a working majority. Your fun will come, you just need patience.
Rishi Sunak's letter to Gavin Williamson: "It is with great sadness that I accept your resignation... I support your decision to step back and understand why you have taken it. I would like to thank you for your personal support and loyalty." https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1590085386805841920/photo/1
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
Yes, that sounds depressingly plausuble.
That, in the end, the winner was confirmed last time did not mean things were not in big trouble, when it relied upon people holding firm against partisan fury, fury which was bound to remove many of them.
And worth pointing out it's not really about bitcoin - it's about other cryptos (mainly ftx's own token and solana, which they have a sh*t ton of, but there is zero liquidity to sell into, making it worthless if you actually try to sell it - btc doesn't have that kind of liquidity problem).
Liquidity is just about how many mugs there are willing to hope there's a bigger mug there tomorrow.
There's no revenue stream or assets underpinning the valuation. So if the stream of mugs runs dry, the liquidity vanishes.
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
Some of the stuff Kari Lake is coming out is truly chilling.
No wonders absolute roasters like Leon love her.
I wonder what first attracted Leon to the fascist?
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
Or "it's a choice of 2 evils" - the inability to distinguish a genuine threat to democracy from politics they dislike. Crazy days.
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
Some of the stuff Kari Lake is coming out is truly chilling.
No wonders absolute roasters like Leon love her.
I wonder what first attracted Leon to the fascist?
I don't think many of the republicans running today will appreciate trump getting himself in the news now with comments like that, and more generally, I suspect a lot of republicans have up to today been reluctant to critics trump to much publicly so as to not have his core supporters boycott him, but as of tomorrow I think there may be more public criticism of trump or suggestions that he is not the man to represent the party in 2024.
And worth pointing out it's not really about bitcoin - it's about other cryptos (mainly ftx's own token and solana, which they have a sh*t ton of, but there is zero liquidity to sell into, making it worthless if you actually try to sell it - btc doesn't have that kind of liquidity problem).
Liquidity is just about how many mugs there are willing to hope there's a bigger mug there tomorrow.
There's no revenue stream or assets underpinning the valuation. So if the stream of mugs runs dry, the liquidity vanishes.
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
My fear is that it’s not that people are delusional or blind to the risk - it’s that a great many of them don’t care. They actually find democracy an inconvenience now.
There must be a not insubstantial chance that the American political system fails in the next 10-20 years, to be replaced by authoritarian government or civil conflict. That is a scary thought.
I put my winnings from the Lula victory and a bit more besides on senate republican win earlier in the week. I hate the idea of the republicans winning, so if they fail I don't mind losing the money and if they win I can console myself with my second four figure win in just over a week!
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
Or that so long as someone wins an election, anything they might then do, even dismantle democratic protections, cannot be called undemocratic.
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Yesterday's John Oliver means Trump is becoming POTUS in 2025 even if the Dems win.
The day America died.
What came up?
In 2020 a lot of good GOP people stood up and stopped Trump stealing the election.
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
What's infuriating is the way people simply dismiss this as an actual threat. You have people openly standing on a platform of election stealing and its not taken seriously "they don't really mean it, they won't actually launch an assault against Democracy".
My fear is that it’s not that people are delusional or blind to the risk - it’s that a great many of them don’t care. They actually find democracy an inconvenience now.
There must be a not insubstantial chance that the American political system fails in the next 10-20 years, to be replaced by authoritarian government or civil conflict. That is a scary thought.
Scary indeed.
However, I think it’s the knock-on effects that will have the potential to cause the greatest human suffering.
An isolationist America who no longer cares for democratic norms will empower autocrats throughout the world.
And worth pointing out it's not really about bitcoin - it's about other cryptos (mainly ftx's own token and solana, which they have a sh*t ton of, but there is zero liquidity to sell into, making it worthless if you actually try to sell it - btc doesn't have that kind of liquidity problem).
Liquidity is just about how many mugs there are willing to hope there's a bigger mug there tomorrow.
There's no revenue stream or assets underpinning the valuation. So if the stream of mugs runs dry, the liquidity vanishes.
Yawn.
What, no pithy retort of how I don't understand the technology?
Or what kind of libertarian rejects pyramid scams?
A scam is a scam is a scam, even if you have Madoff with a profit.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Hasn't he already been doing so? The left of his party seem to hate him, quite frankly.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
“Beats off”? There’s a mental image I didn’t want…
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
Initially they might report WHY people voted the way they did but you won't get any detail on HOW they voted until the poll has closed in the state/house seat (11pm GMT earliest).
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
He won't be able to govern at all with a Congress controlled by a Trump infested GOP.
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
Initially they might report WHY people votes the way they did but you won't get any detail on HOW they votes until the poll has closed in the state/house seat (11pm GMT earliest).
It amazes me Americans don't burn their MSM down out of sheer frustration. And then Mike's point "many state results not expected for days."
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
The key 'women aged 32 to 35 group had 52% saying inflation was more important than Covid on Sundays' stats
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
Initially they might report WHY people votes the way they did but you won't get any detail on HOW they votes until the poll has closed in the state/house seat (11pm GMT earliest).
It amazes me Americans don't burn their MSM down out of sheer frustration. And then Mike's point "many state results not expected for days."
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Hasn't he already been doing so? The left of his party seem to hate him, quite frankly.
And there's another thing.
What's left of the American moderate right have got a choice to make. It's a really grim choice, one not to be wished on anyone, but a choice they have to make.
There's a hefty chunk of the Republican Party that only really believes in raw power. At the moment, it isn't quite the whole party, but it's damn close. And after next week, it coud be the entirety of the self-understanding of the party.
So, non-Trumpian Republicans, what is it to be? Back a party that is woker, more librtardy than you like, or back a party that doesn't really believe in democracy? Choose one.
And we thought the options open to us in 2019 were bad...
We waited 41minutes to get an answer from 111 and then got disconnected. We have now been waiting more than another 30 minutes. This is really not a health service, it is a disgrace.
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.
If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
The key 'women aged 32 to 35 group had 52% saying inflation was more important than Covid on Sundays' stats
69% of women aged 18-29 prefer the taste of whiskers than being ogled by middle aged men on their travels.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Hasn't he already been doing so? The left of his party seem to hate him, quite frankly.
And there's another thing.
What's left of the American moderate right have got a choice to make. It's a really grim choice, one not to be wished on anyone, but a choice they have to make.
There's a hefty chunk of the Republican Party that only really believes in raw power. At the moment, it isn't quite the whole party, but it's damn close. And after next week, it coud be the entirety of the self-understanding of the party.
So, non-Trumpian Republicans, what is it to be? Back a party that is woker, more librtardy than you like, or back a party that doesn't really believe in democracy? Choose one.
I think the choice has already been made. Given what the results may look like, which side will be encouraged in their choice?
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
The key 'women aged 32 to 35 group had 52% saying inflation was more important than Covid on Sundays' stats
69% of women aged 18-29 prefer the taste of whiskers than being oiled by middle aged men on their travels.
Which we know is a mixed signal for the Democrat chances in 2024
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.
If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
I go back and forwards on this point. Presently I agree with you, up until I next see a persuasive argument to always defend inalienable human rights through actions in sport.
Only a few days left until Williamson is appointed to a new role.
He is being replaced by newcomer, William Gavinson
Well at least he (your newcomer) has a proper British name. (Gavin seems an ugly name to me, but I've just checked on wikipedia, and it turns out that there are quite a few - Imagine if Williamson is your pinnacle!)
Williamson has long been top of my list as people that could cause me to leave the Conservative party should they ever become leader.
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
Initially they might report WHY people votes the way they did but you won't get any detail on HOW they votes until the poll has closed in the state/house seat (11pm GMT earliest).
It amazes me Americans don't burn their MSM down out of sheer frustration. And then Mike's point "many state results not expected for days."
We may not get the result from Georgia until December.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Hasn't he already been doing so? The left of his party seem to hate him, quite frankly.
And there's another thing.
What's left of the American moderate right have got a choice to make. It's a really grim choice, one not to be wished on anyone, but a choice they have to make.
There's a hefty chunk of the Republican Party that only really believes in raw power. At the moment, it isn't quite the whole party, but it's damn close. And after next week, it coud be the entirety of the self-understanding of the party.
So, non-Trumpian Republicans, what is it to be? Back a party that is woker, more librtardy than you like, or back a party that doesn't really believe in democracy? Choose one.
And we thought the options open to us in 2019 were bad...
The presidential race will focus the mind, I think. There are lots of people who know it can't be Trump.
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
Not much point whinging about it now. The die was cast some time ago to have homophobic dictators as hosts. I went to the 2018 one and had a great time. Homosexuality was an imprisonment offence when we hosted it here in 1966. Argentina hosted it while a dictatorship, so did China.
If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
I don't actually disagree, but that's an interesting attitude when in so many other things the spirit of the times, at least officially, is not to let things slide just because they were considered ok before.
That's why some people will feel the pressure to comment or make a protest much more than others.
Hypothesis - banging on about abortion puts off voters.
After Dobbs the GOP got all excited and started banging on about abortion bans.
This put off voters - see the Kansas referendum.
The GOP got worried and went quieter and/or more moderated about abortion.
The Dems took the wrong message from Kansas.
They thought that focussing on abortion would be good for them.
So the Dems started banging on about abortion and this has put off voters.
The reality being that most voters are more interested in other things.
And that those voters who are obsessed about abortion will be voting in any case.
The Dems really, really haven't banged on about abortion. Campaign strategist advice was to soft peddle the issue,
Its what they've been spending their advert money on:
In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Democratic strategists insisted the 2022 midterms had fundamentally shifted.
Rather than an election about the economy – focused on rising gas prices and inflation – they argued the election would now be a referendum on abortion rights and the Republicans working to limit women’s choices.
Democrats put their money where their mouth was.
In the month of October alone, Democratic campaigns and groups spent $214 million on broadcast TV ads that mentioned abortion, according to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data. That accounted for nearly half (45%) of all the ad money spent by the party over that time.
Democrats in the United States are making abortion rights a central plank of their campaigns ahead of critical midterm elections, pumping an unprecedented amount of money into advertising on the issue.
As the most intense period of campaigning begins, Democrats have already invested more than an estimated $124m this year in television advertising referencing abortion, according to an Associated Press analysis of data provided by nonpartisan research firm AdImpact.
The hope is that Biden gets a massive kick up the arse from this, stops pandering to the identarian left and starts governing like a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and beats off Trump as a result, but as a centrist.
Hasn't he already been doing so? The left of his party seem to hate him, quite frankly.
And there's another thing.
What's left of the American moderate right have got a choice to make. It's a really grim choice, one not to be wished on anyone, but a choice they have to make.
There's a hefty chunk of the Republican Party that only really believes in raw power. At the moment, it isn't quite the whole party, but it's damn close. And after next week, it coud be the entirety of the self-understanding of the party.
So, non-Trumpian Republicans, what is it to be? Back a party that is woker, more librtardy than you like, or back a party that doesn't really believe in democracy? Choose one.
And we thought the options open to us in 2019 were bad...
The presidential race will focus the mind, I think. There are lots of people who know it can't be Trump.
Of course, as has been oft pointed out even a decent night for the Republicans mid term would not presage disaster in the presidentials, in normal times. Perhaps you are right and come the election those critical people will swing behind the non-Trump candidate.
But there seem a lot of factors which make for a nervous wait. All these election denying people now in a position of power, emboldened. A fractious left which never really liked how Biden ran last time, even if it was considered necessary. A Republican party which, when push comes to shove, always bent over. Uncertainty about who will even be running, and if they can marshall support as well.
(a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms (b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular) (c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer
Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.
However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)
* Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet
According to CNN 40 minutes to first exit polls but IIRC they lie and they start telling us about little subsamples and what they might or might not show until you lose the will to live.
The key 'women aged 32 to 35 group had 52% saying inflation was more important than Covid on Sundays' stats
69% of women aged 18-29 prefer the taste of whiskers than being ogled by middle aged men on their travels.
I can well believe it given how popular moggies are with the ladies.
And worth pointing out it's not really about bitcoin - it's about other cryptos (mainly ftx's own token and solana, which they have a sh*t ton of, but there is zero liquidity to sell into, making it worthless if you actually try to sell it - btc doesn't have that kind of liquidity problem).
Liquidity is just about how many mugs there are willing to hope there's a bigger mug there tomorrow.
There's no revenue stream or assets underpinning the valuation. So if the stream of mugs runs dry, the liquidity vanishes.
Yawn.
What, no pithy retort of how I don't understand the technology?
Or what kind of libertarian rejects pyramid scams?
A scam is a scam is a scam, even if you have Madoff with a profit.
We've had this debate and I don't feel like clogging up the board with it.
You've made your point, and demonstrated your ignorance on the subject, time after time.
If you don't like it - don't buy it. Simples.
Very odd to revel in people's loss porn however. Facebook is down 70% or so from peak but I don't go round laughing at people who invested in FAANG stocks.
You're a weird obsessive on a subject you know nothing about - par for the course on PB I guess. But as I say, if you don't like it, don't buy it.
Under the proposed new boundaries I am no longer in a Newcastle seat, despite living within the city limits. Not a fan.
Which seat are you in now IYDMMA?
A simple process of identifying the only Newcastle City ward not in a Newcastle seat. And the constituency that is in. A name change to Upper Tyne might make it more palatable.
Comments
Whips spox: “Sir Gavin Williamson has been clear that he will comply with the ongoing complaints process. It is right that we wait for that process to conclude.”
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1590083328967061504
Managed to combine incompetence with being a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
Braverman next?
Can we please have a General Election?
With that said... I'd be a little cautious about reading too much into some of the early voting info.
Edit to add: WA is also possible, if unlikely.
There are many precedents for those kinds of deceptions in US politics. (And other places, so I hear.)
I can't applaud such deceptions in this situation -- but I might forgive them in the future, if they do the right things, later.
One very powerful motive: More and more Republican leaders have recognized that Trump is a loser in general elections, and are saying so. Latest big example: Mick Mulvaney.
54 i think is upper end, 55 on a dream night for them.......
Edit - 53 looks relatively likely to me now however
He wasn't just sacked because A-levels were in chaos. They've been in chaos ever since Spielman, Truss and Gibb between them fucked up the reforms. And two of those are still in post and one actually got promoted to be PM!
Today a lot of them have left and have been replaced or will be elected today who brazenly admit that Trump won the 2020 election and if a Dem wins their area/state then it is fraud by the Dems and will simply exclude Dem heavy areas from their returns.
This is a process all the way from precinct captains to the governor.
Your fun will come, you just need patience.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1590082045577162752
Always possible that the number might rise over the course of the next 53 days.
That, in the end, the winner was confirmed last time did not mean things were not in big trouble, when it relied upon people holding firm against partisan fury, fury which was bound to remove many of them.
There's no revenue stream or assets underpinning the valuation. So if the stream of mugs runs dry, the liquidity vanishes.
Which might be a factor.
No wonders absolute roasters like Leon love her.
I wonder what first attracted Leon to the fascist?
In relation to this story.
Qatar World Cup ambassador claims homosexuality is 'damage in the mind'
Former Qatar midfielder Khalid Salman made the incendiary remark in a German television interview
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/08/qatar-world-cup-2022-ambassador-claims-homosexuality-damage/
There must be a not insubstantial chance that the American political system fails in the next 10-20 years, to be replaced by authoritarian government or civil conflict. That is a scary thought.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ministers-severance-pay-cabinet-reshuffle_uk_63624e5ce4b08fd5e95766c3
That takes talent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5zXeZiHlLc
Spinal tap, eat yet hat.
Over the weekend Fifa’s leadership sent out a letter asking the participating countries to refrain from any further discussion of Qatar’s human rights record and urging them to “focus on the football”.
The message does not appear to have reached Blatter, 86, who suggested this morning that the World Cup was being held in Qatar only because of political arm-twisting from Paris.
“Qatar is a mistake,” he told the Tages-Anzeiger, a newspaper in his native Switzerland. “The choice was bad.”
Blatter, who favoured holding the tournament in the US instead, alleged that Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president at the time, had lobbied on Qatar’s behalf in return for a £12.7 billion order from Doha for French fighter jets.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/qatari-world-cup-ambassador-calls-homosexuality-damage-in-the-mind-hlv7q8ttm
A coroner has said he has seen no evidence that Archie Battersbee was taking part in an online challenge when he fatally injured himself.
Archie, 12, from Southend, died when his life support was withdrawn following his parents' legal battle with the NHS hospital treating him.
His mother has said she believed he was injured in an online challenge.
A pre-inquest review heard Essex Police had found messages on his phone reflecting a "very low mood".
A full inquest is to be held in Chelmsford on 7 February.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-63557850
Also if the GOP are doing well in Nevada then perhaps their chances are better than the 1.94 you can get on them winning in Arizona.
However, I think it’s the knock-on effects that will have the potential to cause the greatest human suffering.
An isolationist America who no longer cares for democratic norms will empower autocrats throughout the world.
That’s where we’ll see most of the damage.
Or what kind of libertarian rejects pyramid scams?
A scam is a scam is a scam, even if you have Madoff with a profit.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1590070993808244741
After Dobbs the GOP got all excited and started banging on about abortion bans.
This put off voters - see the Kansas referendum.
The GOP got worried and went quieter and/or more moderated about abortion.
The Dems took the wrong message from Kansas.
They thought that focussing on abortion would be good for them.
So the Dems started banging on about abortion and this has put off voters.
The reality being that most voters are more interested in other things.
And that those voters who are obsessed about abortion will be voting in any case.
Can't be arsed and working tomorrow.
He reckons this proves anti-trans stuff will do bugger all for the Tories when people are facing a choice between heating and eating.
What's left of the American moderate right have got a choice to make. It's a really grim choice, one not to be wished on anyone, but a choice they have to make.
There's a hefty chunk of the Republican Party that only really believes in raw power. At the moment, it isn't quite the whole party, but it's damn close. And after next week, it coud be the entirety of the self-understanding of the party.
So, non-Trumpian Republicans, what is it to be? Back a party that is woker, more librtardy than you like, or back a party that doesn't really believe in democracy? Choose one.
And we thought the options open to us in 2019 were bad...
If we restrict international tournaments to countries considered worthy then they won't be truly international. Just enjoy the footy.
I'd originally laid at 1.47 so cashed out of that and reversed it.
Williamson has long been top of my list as people that could cause me to leave the Conservative party should they ever become leader.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/27/the-next-cabinet-minister-to-go/
https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV25658077/next-cabinet-member-to-leave
Conor McGregor wants to buy Liverpool.
Really !
https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1590092459870420992?s=61&t=CqMXlM9QeKyY8DgSeBURFA
(Ducks!)
I have known about this sale for a while, professionally.
I expect DIC to make a bid.
I'd rather not be owned by a state.
Some of the people who tried to buy Chelsea are also interested.
That's why some people will feel the pressure to comment or make a protest much more than others.
In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Democratic strategists insisted the 2022 midterms had fundamentally shifted.
Rather than an election about the economy – focused on rising gas prices and inflation – they argued the election would now be a referendum on abortion rights and the Republicans working to limit women’s choices.
Democrats put their money where their mouth was.
In the month of October alone, Democratic campaigns and groups spent $214 million on broadcast TV ads that mentioned abortion, according to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data. That accounted for nearly half (45%) of all the ad money spent by the party over that time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/democrats-losing-bet-abortion/index.html
Plenty of similar stories in the media:
Voters' Top Issue Is the Economy, But Democrats Hope Abortion Will Resonate More
https://time.com/6225504/democrats-abortion-economy-midterms/
Democrats in the United States are making abortion rights a central plank of their campaigns ahead of critical midterm elections, pumping an unprecedented amount of money into advertising on the issue.
As the most intense period of campaigning begins, Democrats have already invested more than an estimated $124m this year in television advertising referencing abortion, according to an Associated Press analysis of data provided by nonpartisan research firm AdImpact.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/20/democrats-focus-on-abortion-ahead-of-us-midterms-spending-shows
But there seem a lot of factors which make for a nervous wait. All these election denying people now in a position of power, emboldened. A fractious left which never really liked how Biden ran last time, even if it was considered necessary. A Republican party which, when push comes to shove, always bent over. Uncertainty about who will even be running, and if they can marshall support as well.
(a) This is the first midterms, and parties usually get hammered in their first midterms
(b) Biden is unpopular (if not quite Trump 2018 levels unpopular)
(c) Gas prices are high, and interest rates have been rising, and everyone is feeling a bit poorer
Under those circumstances, you would expect the Dems to perform poorly, and a result not dissimilar to their performance in 2010 (down 6 in the Senate), or 1994 (down 8!) wouldn't be that unsurprising.
However... the Dems have been lucky. Firstly, abortion and Dobbs has undoubtedly motivated at least some voters. Secondly, the Republicans have picked some real crazies and charisma free candidates (see Masters, Blake; Vance, JD; Oz, Dr; and Walker, Herschel). Thirdly, the specter of Trump still hangs over the Republicans somewhat (even as some candidates seek to distance themselves.)
* Disclaimer, we don't actually know the extent of the bad time yet
You've made your point, and demonstrated your ignorance on the subject, time after time.
If you don't like it - don't buy it. Simples.
Very odd to revel in people's loss porn however. Facebook is down 70% or so from peak but I don't go round laughing at people who invested in FAANG stocks.
You're a weird obsessive on a subject you know nothing about - par for the course on PB I guess. But as I say, if you don't like it, don't buy it.
And the constituency that is in.
A name change to Upper Tyne might make it more palatable.