If O'Rourke did win the governors race in Texas it would probably be the biggest upset of the night and make him a contender for 2024 on the Democratic side, as the Florida governor result has made DeSantis a contender on the GOP side. Though having said that Abbott has just taken the lead
If O'Rourke did win the governors race in Texas it would probably be the biggest upset of the night and make him a contender for 2024 on the Democratic side, as the Florida governor result has made DeSantis a contender on the GOP side. Though having said that Abbott has just taken the lead
In North Carolina’s Senate race, Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley is leading her opponent, Republican Ted Budd — but most of those results are coming from early voting.
The polls closed at 7:30 p.m. ET and these early voting numbers show about 53% of the estimated vote being reported, CNN’s David Chalian said in analysis. Of the current votes that are in, 96% are coming from early voting.
“At the end of the day we think in North Carolina, only 55% is going to be pre-election vote,” Chalian explained, adding that generally, early voting tends to favor Democrats. “So right now most of what you are seeing there is pre-election vote.” Here’s how the results break down even further:
Among people who voted by mail, Beasley leads by 46%, with still about 24% of ballots left to be counted. For those who voted early, Beasley also leads by 6.2%, with about 5% still to be counted. Budd, however, leads by more than 37% in votes cast on Election Day — but there is still a lot left to go. More than 95% of Election Day votes have not been counted yet.
“A rising number of households are having their energy smart meters remotely switched to prepayment meters, the energy regulator has said. Energy firms use the technology to swap customers who are in debt to the more costly plan without needing a warrant.
Ofgem said it had received reports of "vulnerable customers being left without power for days or even weeks". Kelly, from South London, whose meter was switched, said: "I suddenly only had £3 on my electric until payday."
Once a smart meter is installed, it is a much simpler process for a supplier to swap the customer into prepay mode at the push of a button, rather than having to apply for a warrant and install a physical box.”
—-
One the one hand, it isn’t unreasonable to expect people to actually pay for the energy they use, on the other, this does seem like it’s giving up a significant level of control to these companies and their incompetent and very lightly regulated admin processes.
So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment
So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment
So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment
Still more evidence of growing geographic polarization:
"This year, there are considerably more districts with no Democratic nominee than with no Republican. Specifically, there are 23 House districts with no Democrat on the ballot but 12 with no Republican. Moreover, the districts with no Democratic nominee tend to be more competitive than those with no Republican one, meaning that Democrats are sacrificing more votes."
I'm having to post on here at 2am as I know the user that is harassing me is almost certainly going to be passed out drunk right now so it's the only time I know I'm safe to join conversation without being harassed and stalked...
BUT
This isn't a sustainable position. As website owners you both have a duty of care to every user on your website and you should have policy for dealing with harassers and stalkers. The response I got on Saturday night after I'd been the victim of harassment on your website (some lame joke about banning TSE) was totally and utterly inadequate to me so I'll leave it with you and see what you come up with going forwards.
I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate
My forecast of one party doing substantially better than the polls looks completely incorrect.
The "stretch" Republican targets of New Hampshire and Colorado both look to be Dem holds. (And it looks like the pollsters are broadly right.)
Right now, my guess is that the Dems grab PA narrowly, the Republicans lead in GA but it goes to runoff in December. And we don't have data on Nevada or Arizona yet.
I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
WHITMER
She needs to win Michigan first!!
I have a small amount of Gavin Newson, he clearly wants to try and has the money and national profile to give it a go. will he get the nomination, depends on who else tyres, but if he does, I think Ron would start as the foveate.
NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate
It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
WHITMER
She needs to win Michigan first!!
I have a small amount of Gavin Newson, he clearly wants to try and has the money and national profile to give it a go. will he get the nomination, depends on who else tyres, but if he does, I think Ron would start as the foveate.
Trump will kick the shit out if DeSantis. DeSantis runs a good culture war, but nothing on Trump. And Trump is more charismatic. DeSantis is also pumped up by the fact that Florida man is crazy. It's a fucked up culture there.
I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...
I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...
Agree with that.
I still think the GOP will keep PA - there is a history of ticket splitting in PA and I suspect Fetterman's health issues will prove too much for some voters. I'd put money on the GOP winning NV as well.
NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate
It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
PA - likely D gain GA - likely run-off AZ - ??? NV - ???
If the Dems hold one of AZ and NV (and it's far too early to know), then it will all be down to the run-off.
But.
It's entirely possible that the Republicans gain both AZ and NV.
I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...
Agree with that.
I still think the GOP will keep PA - there is a history of ticket splitting in PA and I suspect Fetterman's health issues will prove too much for some voters. I'd put money on the GOP winning NV as well.
NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate
It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
PA - likely D gain GA - likely run-off AZ - ??? NV - ???
If the Dems hold one of AZ and NV (and it's far too early to know), then it will all be down to the run-off.
But.
It's entirely possible that the Republicans gain both AZ and NV.
If Arizona votes for a white nationalist psycho over a deal making, moderate, war hero astronaut then it just shows Americans are fucking morons.
Comments
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=ForecastWrapper
Hofmeiseter (D) leading in OK
O'Rourke (D) in TX
Both by significant margins - albeit may be early vote
Abrams (D) just 1% behind in GA
O'Rourke 53%
Abbott 45%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-texas-governor.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=TrendingRace
Certainly Walker seems to be eating into Warnock's lead ATM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-massachusetts-governor.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=LiveAlertCard
Warnock (D) 50%
Walker (R) 48%
Fetterman (D) 77%
Oz (R) 21%
That said, CNN are getting animated about seats swinging red in New England
House forecast to be 232 Republican 203 Democrat
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar#house
Goodnight
In North Carolina’s Senate race, Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley is leading her opponent, Republican Ted Budd — but most of those results are coming from early voting.
The polls closed at 7:30 p.m. ET and these early voting numbers show about 53% of the estimated vote being reported, CNN’s David Chalian said in analysis. Of the current votes that are in, 96% are coming from early voting.
“At the end of the day we think in North Carolina, only 55% is going to be pre-election vote,” Chalian explained, adding that generally, early voting tends to favor Democrats. “So right now most of what you are seeing there is pre-election vote.”
Here’s how the results break down even further:
Among people who voted by mail, Beasley leads by 46%, with still about 24% of ballots left to be counted.
For those who voted early, Beasley also leads by 6.2%, with about 5% still to be counted.
Budd, however, leads by more than 37% in votes cast on Election Day — but there is still a lot left to go. More than 95% of Election Day votes have not been counted yet.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63554879
“A rising number of households are having their energy smart meters remotely switched to prepayment meters, the energy regulator has said.
Energy firms use the technology to swap customers who are in debt to the more costly plan without needing a warrant.
Ofgem said it had received reports of "vulnerable customers being left without power for days or even weeks".
Kelly, from South London, whose meter was switched, said: "I suddenly only had £3 on my electric until payday."
Once a smart meter is installed, it is a much simpler process for a supplier to swap the customer into prepay mode at the push of a button, rather than having to apply for a warrant and install a physical box.”
—-
One the one hand, it isn’t unreasonable to expect people to actually pay for the energy they use, on the other, this does seem like it’s giving up a significant level of control to these companies and their incompetent and very lightly regulated admin processes.
Screw ‘em, I say. Resist the smart meters!
Rural Counties often count more first.
So potential for double turn:
Dems lead heavily on early vote
Then Reps do well as rural counties count faster
Then Dems finish better in big cities
So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590158583064559616?s=46&t=rKi-F_0EvxiKInB3Kf9k2Q
In NC, the early votes get counted first. Hence why Beasley was ahead but Budd is now in the lead
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html?
Glancing at NYTimes, the numbers look pretty decent for the Dems.
There are two twists in the trend
or just state-wide elections?
Meanwhile I'm wondering what you and Smithson The Elder are proposing to do to protect the users on your website from mad stalkers and harassers?
He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God
The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024
"This year, there are considerably more districts with no Democratic nominee than with no Republican. Specifically, there are 23 House districts with no Democrat on the ballot but 12 with no Republican. Moreover, the districts with no Democratic nominee tend to be more competitive than those with no Republican one, meaning that Democrats are sacrificing more votes."
(Footnote omitted.)
Troubling, even allowing for the top-two effects.
source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-3-big-questions-i-still-have-about-election-day/
I'm having to post on here at 2am as I know the user that is harassing me is almost certainly going to be passed out drunk right now so it's the only time I know I'm safe to join conversation without being harassed and stalked...
BUT
This isn't a sustainable position. As website owners you both have a duty of care to every user on your website and you should have policy for dealing with harassers and stalkers. The response I got on Saturday night after I'd been the victim of harassment on your website (some lame joke about banning TSE) was totally and utterly inadequate to me so I'll leave it with you and see what you come up with going forwards.
Have a good night.
De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.
Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1590165855123697664
Right now, my guess is that the Dems grab PA narrowly, the Republicans lead in GA but it goes to runoff in December. And we don't have data on Nevada or Arizona yet.
It’s worth watching the De Santis acceptance speech. Vindicated and emphatic. Impressive. He wants the job in 2024
I have a small amount of Gavin Newson, he clearly wants to try and has the money and national profile to give it a go. will he get the nomination, depends on who else tyres, but if he does, I think Ron would start as the foveate.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/florida-homework-trump-bias/
I still think the GOP will keep PA - there is a history of ticket splitting in PA and I suspect Fetterman's health issues will prove too much for some voters. I'd put money on the GOP winning NV as well.
GA - likely run-off
AZ - ???
NV - ???
If the Dems hold one of AZ and NV (and it's far too early to know), then it will all be down to the run-off.
But.
It's entirely possible that the Republicans gain both AZ and NV.
How many PBers went in at 1.33 at 10pm last night (UK time)?
Dems will finish strong
Trump might offer the slot to De Santis, but he should turn it down and fight for the GOP nomination