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If New Hampshire flips the the Republicans are in for good night – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    House results in GOP 22 Dems 13
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,174
    Where is the exit poll information available?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Governors:

    Hofmeiseter (D) leading in OK

    O'Rourke (D) in TX

    Both by significant margins - albeit may be early vote

    Abrams (D) just 1% behind in GA
  • MikeL said:

    Governors:

    Hofmeiseter (D) leading in OK

    O'Rourke (D) in TX

    Both by significant margins - albeit may be early vote

    Abrams (D) just 1% behind in GA

    I think the suburbs around Atlanta (certainly Fulton) have reported a high %.

    Certainly Walker seems to be eating into Warnock's lead ATM
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    OH Senate - D 57/43 - 29% in
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    HYUFD said:
    It’s fascinatingly close
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited November 2022
    If O'Rourke did win the governors race in Texas it would probably be the biggest upset of the night and make him a contender for 2024 on the Democratic side, as the Florida governor result has made DeSantis a contender on the GOP side. Though having said that Abbott has just taken the lead
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    GOP candidates catching up
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    But this is definitely not a mad Republican landslide
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Leon said:

    GOP candidates catching up

    I think the GOP will be feeling pretty relaxed generally
  • HYUFD said:

    If O'Rourke did win the governors race in Texas it would probably be the biggest upset of the night and make him a contender for 2024 on the Democratic side, as the Florida governor result has made DeSantis a contender on the GOP side. Though having said that Abbott has just taken the lead
    No chance.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Betfair Senate Rep 1.8
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Georgia 47% in

    Warnock (D) 50%
    Walker (R) 48%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Pennsylvania 8% in

    Fetterman (D) 77%
    Oz (R) 21%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Remember in 2020 Pres, last votes to be counted were strongly Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    House 21 Democrats 40 Republicans called so far
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679

    Leon said:

    GOP candidates catching up

    I think the GOP will be feeling pretty relaxed generally
    Feels like a good but not incredible night for the GOP

    That said, CNN are getting animated about seats swinging red in New England
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Big big win for De Santis in Fla. He will believe he can win the presidency

    Gotta push The Donald under the bus first tho...
    Indeed

    🙏

    DeSantis worse than Trump.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GOP candidates catching up

    I think the GOP will be feeling pretty relaxed generally
    Feels like a good but not incredible night for the GOP

    That said, CNN are getting animated about seats swinging red in New England
    NH looks for the Ds at the moment.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Beasley +2.5% - 61% in
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GOP candidates catching up

    I think the GOP will be feeling pretty relaxed generally
    Feels like a good but not incredible night for the GOP

    That said, CNN are getting animated about seats swinging red in New England
    Southern Texas also swinging. The House is a very solid GOP gain, its all on the Senate races
  • MikeL said:

    Beasley +2.5% - 61% in

    That lead is slipping with every % coming in - at 51% of the vote, I think it around 6 or 7%. Don't see NC turning Blue.
  • MikeL said:

    Beasley +2.5% - 61% in

    FYI from CNN

    In North Carolina’s Senate race, Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley is leading her opponent, Republican Ted Budd — but most of those results are coming from early voting.

    The polls closed at 7:30 p.m. ET and these early voting numbers show about 53% of the estimated vote being reported, CNN’s David Chalian said in analysis. Of the current votes that are in, 96% are coming from early voting.

    “At the end of the day we think in North Carolina, only 55% is going to be pre-election vote,” Chalian explained, adding that generally, early voting tends to favor Democrats. “So right now most of what you are seeing there is pre-election vote.”
    Here’s how the results break down even further:

    Among people who voted by mail, Beasley leads by 46%, with still about 24% of ballots left to be counted.
    For those who voted early, Beasley also leads by 6.2%, with about 5% still to be counted.
    Budd, however, leads by more than 37% in votes cast on Election Day — but there is still a lot left to go. More than 95% of Election Day votes have not been counted yet.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    Democrats have flipped the Governor in Massachusetts, not really a surprise, but still.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2022
    Reasons not to get a smart meter #759;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63554879

    “A rising number of households are having their energy smart meters remotely switched to prepayment meters, the energy regulator has said.
    Energy firms use the technology to swap customers who are in debt to the more costly plan without needing a warrant.

    Ofgem said it had received reports of "vulnerable customers being left without power for days or even weeks".
    Kelly, from South London, whose meter was switched, said: "I suddenly only had £3 on my electric until payday."

    Once a smart meter is installed, it is a much simpler process for a supplier to swap the customer into prepay mode at the push of a button, rather than having to apply for a warrant and install a physical box.”

    —-

    One the one hand, it isn’t unreasonable to expect people to actually pay for the energy they use, on the other, this does seem like it’s giving up a significant level of control to these companies and their incompetent and very lightly regulated admin processes.

    Screw ‘em, I say. Resist the smart meters!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    The needle is down.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 2022
    Remember 2020 Pres, it looked bad for Biden midway through night.

    Rural Counties often count more first.

    So potential for double turn:

    Dems lead heavily on early vote
    Then Reps do well as rural counties count faster
    Then Dems finish better in big cities
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Georgia now extremely tight
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Leon said:

    Georgia now extremely tight

    Dekalb
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited November 2022
    Nate Cohn (NYT):

    So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment

    https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590158583064559616?s=46&t=rKi-F_0EvxiKInB3Kf9k2Q
  • MikeL said:

    Remember 2020 Pres, it looked bad for Biden midway through night.

    Rural Counties often count more first.

    So potential for double turn:

    Dems lead heavily on early vote
    Then Reps do well as rural counties count faster
    Then Dems finish better in big cities

    It depends place by place.

    In NC, the early votes get counted first. Hence why Beasley was ahead but Budd is now in the lead
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Georgia now red
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 2022
    GA - Warnock jumped to +5% having been behind - was DeKalb
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Georgia is going to come down to Atlanta turnout, like it did in 2020.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Andy_JS said:
    They’ve taken down all their predictions?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:
    They’ve taken down all their predictions?
    Was hardcoded with a democrat bias. Typical MSM.

    ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    Leon said:

    Georgia now red

    Unless either candidate is over 50%, then it's going to runoff.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Georgia now red

    Unless either candidate is over 50%, then it's going to runoff.
    How was your meeting Robert?
  • Brutal


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    Wow.

    Glancing at NYTimes, the numbers look pretty decent for the Dems.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491

    Nate Cohn (NYT):

    So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment

    https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590158583064559616?s=46&t=rKi-F_0EvxiKInB3Kf9k2Q

    boads well for DeSantis
  • Georgia is going to come down to Atlanta turnout, like it did in 2020.

    Interestingly, with almost all the same number of votes in, Kemp is running ahead of Walker, just under 4%.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Need great care - people watching in person offsetting early vote but forgetting rural countries count faster

    There are two twists in the trend
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    Brutal


    Not really. Elections in European countries are discussed at length here, too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    CO - Dem +19, 31% in
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    BigRich said:

    Nate Cohn (NYT):

    So far, Democrats are running ahead of our expectations outside of Florida (in places with meaningful vote, which may still be contaminated with early votes); they're way running behind in Florida. It's almost entirely cancelling out at the moment

    https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590158583064559616?s=46&t=rKi-F_0EvxiKInB3Kf9k2Q

    boads well for DeSantis
    Good for DeSantis, bad for Trump?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Georgia now red

    Unless either candidate is over 50%, then it's going to runoff.
    Are the Georgia runoffs for all Georgia elections where nobody gets over 50%?

    or just state-wide elections?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Georgia now red

    Unless either candidate is over 50%, then it's going to runoff.
    Are the Georgia runoffs for all Georgia elections where nobody gets over 50%?

    or just state-wide elections?
    I don't know.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Warnock +4.4%, 64% in
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Wow.

    Glancing at NYTimes, the numbers look pretty decent for the Dems.

    In the words of someone from the 1960s.... they would say that wouldn't that wouldn't they? ;)

    Meanwhile I'm wondering what you and Smithson The Elder are proposing to do to protect the users on your website from mad stalkers and harassers?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Georgia now red

    Unless either candidate is over 50%, then it's going to runoff.
    How was your meeting Robert?
    Excellent, thank you.
  • MikeL said:

    CO - Dem +19, 31% in

    +15% now at 36% in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    Georgia is going to come down to Atlanta turnout, like it did in 2020.

    Interestingly, with almost all the same number of votes in, Kemp is running ahead of Walker, just under 4%.

    I would expect Kemp to win by 8, so that would suggest GA is going to end up about level.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Vance overtakes in Ohio
  • GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow.

    Glancing at NYTimes, the numbers look pretty decent for the Dems.

    In the words of someone from the 1960s.... they would say that wouldn't that wouldn't they? ;)

    Meanwhile I'm wondering what you and Smithson The Elder are proposing to do to protect the users on your website from mad stalkers and harassers?
    She's harmless. Looks like a bit of a Tweeter - which tells you all you need to know.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Georgia is going to come down to Atlanta turnout, like it did in 2020.

    Interestingly, with almost all the same number of votes in, Kemp is running ahead of Walker, just under 4%.

    I would expect Kemp to win by 8, so that would suggest GA is going to end up about level.
    Interestingly in PA, Mastrano is only around 3% in share behind Oz at the same (early) stage. Would have expected a bigger gap.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,960
    Still more evidence of growing geographic polarization:

    "This year, there are considerably more districts with no Democratic nominee than with no Republican. Specifically, there are 23 House districts with no Democrat on the ballot but 12 with no Republican. Moreover, the districts with no Democratic nominee tend to be more competitive than those with no Republican one, meaning that Democrats are sacrificing more votes."

    (Footnote omitted.)

    Troubling, even allowing for the top-two effects.

    source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-3-big-questions-i-still-have-about-election-day/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited November 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow.

    Glancing at NYTimes, the numbers look pretty decent for the Dems.

    In the words of someone from the 1960s.... they would say that wouldn't that wouldn't they? ;)

    Meanwhile I'm wondering what you and Smithson The Elder are proposing to do to protect the users on your website from mad stalkers and harassers?
    Let me put this very, very simply @rcs1000 @MikeSmithson

    I'm having to post on here at 2am as I know the user that is harassing me is almost certainly going to be passed out drunk right now so it's the only time I know I'm safe to join conversation without being harassed and stalked...

    BUT

    This isn't a sustainable position. As website owners you both have a duty of care to every user on your website and you should have policy for dealing with harassers and stalkers. The response I got on Saturday night after I'd been the victim of harassment on your website (some lame joke about banning TSE) was totally and utterly inadequate to me so I'll leave it with you and see what you come up with going forwards.

    Have a good night.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    CNN project CO Senate for Dems - pretty early call
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    RON DESANTIS VICTORY SPEECH: "We chose facts over fear. We chose education over indoctrination."

    https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1590165855123697664
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    In Georgia Walker is closing the gap, 48.9% against 49.2%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    My forecast of one party doing substantially better than the polls looks completely incorrect.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
    Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
    Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
    WHITMER
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    My forecast of one party doing substantially better than the polls looks completely incorrect.
    The "stretch" Republican targets of New Hampshire and Colorado both look to be Dem holds. (And it looks like the pollsters are broadly right.)

    Right now, my guess is that the Dems grab PA narrowly, the Republicans lead in GA but it goes to runoff in December. And we don't have data on Nevada or Arizona yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    My forecast of one party doing substantially better than the polls looks completely incorrect.
    Yes it’s not a great republican triumph (Florida being a notable exception)

    It’s worth watching the De Santis acceptance speech. Vindicated and emphatic. Impressive. He wants the job in 2024
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,491
    WillG said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
    Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
    WHITMER
    She needs to win Michigan first!!

    I have a small amount of Gavin Newson, he clearly wants to try and has the money and national profile to give it a go. will he get the nomination, depends on who else tyres, but if he does, I think Ron would start as the foveate.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    RON DESANTIS VICTORY SPEECH: "We chose facts over fear. We chose education over indoctrination."

    https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1590165855123697664
    Sure they did.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/florida-homework-trump-bias/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    BigRich said:

    WillG said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We might already have had the big news of the night: De Santis’ crushing victory in Florida

    He’s a winner. He’s not crazy. He’s chosen by God

    The Republicans need to get behind him and dump Trump. De Santis would thrash Biden or Harris in 2024

    A poll last month had Trump beating Harris but Harris beating DeSantis.

    De Santis is a traditional, social and fiscal conservative, some of the blue-collar voters who voted for Trump might not back De Santis.

    Same with the redwall voters who voted for Boris the Tories have now lost

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    I don’t believe for a second that Harris would beat De Santis
    Nore do I, but I also don't think Harris will be the candit, or at least is unlikely, unless Biden dies and she becomes a sitting president before the election.
    WHITMER
    She needs to win Michigan first!!

    I have a small amount of Gavin Newson, he clearly wants to try and has the money and national profile to give it a go. will he get the nomination, depends on who else tyres, but if he does, I think Ron would start as the foveate.
    Trump will kick the shit out if DeSantis. DeSantis runs a good culture war, but nothing on Trump. And Trump is more charismatic. DeSantis is also pumped up by the fact that Florida man is crazy. It's a fucked up culture there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Is there anything noteworthy in the Iowa numbers so far?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Vance well ahead now
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Vance well ahead now

    So depressing when he is such an obvious fraud. A complete politician that will say anything to win.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Senate Rep Maj goes odds AGAINST - 2.02
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Doubts that the GOP will even take the House?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...

    Agree with that.

    I still think the GOP will keep PA - there is a history of ticket splitting in PA and I suspect Fetterman's health issues will prove too much for some voters. I'd put money on the GOP winning NV as well.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Doubts that the GOP will even take the House?

    Looks good to me. They only need about 5 more seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
    PA - likely D gain
    GA - likely run-off
    AZ - ???
    NV - ???

    If the Dems hold one of AZ and NV (and it's far too early to know), then it will all be down to the run-off.

    But.

    It's entirely possible that the Republicans gain both AZ and NV.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    rcs1000 said:

    I think the NYTimes is mistaken in assuming control will be determined tonight. It's a decent possibility that it will be dependent on Georgia, where the Republicans will be leading... But not over the line...

    Agree with that.

    I still think the GOP will keep PA - there is a history of ticket splitting in PA and I suspect Fetterman's health issues will prove too much for some voters. I'd put money on the GOP winning NV as well.
    Fetterman is overperfoming Biden so far.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    NYT now predicting the GOP will narrowly snatch the Senate

    It will likely all come down to Georgia given the Dems lead in GOP held Pennsylvania and the GOP likely take Democrat held Nevada and otherwise no change. Georgia likely goes to a runoff as neither candidate over 50%, so the Senate would be decided in January not tonight
    PA - likely D gain
    GA - likely run-off
    AZ - ???
    NV - ???

    If the Dems hold one of AZ and NV (and it's far too early to know), then it will all be down to the run-off.

    But.

    It's entirely possible that the Republicans gain both AZ and NV.
    If Arizona votes for a white nationalist psycho over a deal making, moderate, war hero astronaut then it just shows Americans are fucking morons.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Kari Lake LOSING in Arizona
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Kari Lake LOSING in Arizona

    Hahaha. The Queen of the Karens getting what she deserves I hope.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    DeSantis is only running two points ahead of Rubio, so think it's more of a Florida going right trend than any magic by him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Fuck, I should have bet on Katie Hobbs at 5/1!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Now Senate Rep Maj 2.4

    How many PBers went in at 1.33 at 10pm last night (UK time)?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    GA 81% in but Fulton only 70%

    Dems will finish strong
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    If Kari Lake loses that rules her out as a VP

    Trump might offer the slot to De Santis, but he should turn it down and fight for the GOP nomination
  • MikeL said:

    GA 81% in but Fulton only 70%

    Dems will finish strong

    Too early to call and the question is whether it gets Warnock over 50% even if it does happen.
This discussion has been closed.