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Is there any way back for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    Well, yes. I mean, isn't there some law against putting people up in Premier Inns?
    Tip. When you are about to post your one-liners, pause and ask yourself if they fall into the category of facetious or, worse, snide rather than funny.

    xx
    I did.

    And it was still a fair comment.

    Never had a decent night's sleep in a Premier Inn.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    The whole point of the Braverman performance was to tick every hard right box imaginable, using the most inflammatory language, and so to make it impossible for Sunak to sack her without major political repercussions. Her message to him is basically: "If I go, you do too". And Sunak's problem is that she could well be right.

    The thing is, she knows she is right; the current level of boat people is unsustainable, and when you know there's no comeback, you can go completely ham on something and challenge people to oppose you.

    What is more challenging for her is solving the damn thing.
    It's a classic dividing line issue, thought, because the Left - and plenty of (most?) liberal centrists too - refuse to accept it's even an issue, and to the extent they do they argue to make it easier, and therefore cede the entire terrain to the Conservatives - even though they have abjectly failed to solve it.

    It's clever politics. It's risky for the Conservatives only if they get outflanked to the Right.

    They have to deliver. That's the risk.

    They don't, as long as they have someone to blame for the failure- probably Human Rights Lawyers. In fact for some people, solving the problem would render them obsolete and that would never do.

    It's horrible, but the retail politics makes sense.

    Rhetoric without delivery after 12 years of power will not reap rewards. Most people are not hate-filled Daily Mail readers who view refugees as sub-human scum who deserve firebombing, diphtheria and detention. They just want solutions. If the Tories are not providing any they will look elsewhere.
    They want solutions which don't involve shelling out £200/person/night indefinitely, though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Sunak and the tories heading in the right direction.

    Still, a very long way to go before depriving labour of a majority.

    There is a long way to go but Rishi has made a positive start and is anyone really confident Starmer has sealed the deal with the public
    Can I put my hand up and say absolutely yes - more confident with each new poll.

    Can you not see how under Sunak the Tory share is firming up around 26 or 27%?

    And if you can see it, do you think they improve from there once honeymoon is over?

    Before the Starmergasm Truss had a new leader bounce, well uptick about same as Rishi’s. she had consistent 35’s with Techne and 34 from Opinium with Labour just 5 ahead. Getting rid of Truss it’s not bounced back to Boris polling in this honeymoon period.

    These Sunak honeymoon polls are more remarkable than the Starmergasm drop, in how so many voters just arn’t coming back despite removal of Truss, her budget and economic philosophy.

    What Sunak’s honeymoon polls so far tell us is Tory drop into the mid 20s now looks long term thing.
    I’m less confident about that. I just don’t think we can meaningfully project the current polls forward into a likely trend, at this point in time.

    Perfectly possible the tories head deep into the teens, or pull it back to become borderline-competitive with labour, going into the next election campaign.

    I wouldn’t put it more likely than 50/50 that the tories will still be in the mid 20’s, this time next year.

    In betting terms, I think there’s value in laying your certainty. If you get what I mean.
    It’s hard to argue with the Mighty Ping - I will definitely have you in my first government, if we can’t afford the wage I’ll bung you a K and swanky grace and favour lodgings.

    But my argument is, why would it be such a shock Sunak isn’t listened to and the Tory vote doesn’t recover from 27% between now and the election? As a precedent, Towards the end Brown got stuck in the 20s and could not move the dial, why should this time be different? If anything the Tory government crimes and collapse are greater, and the pre-election economic outlook polling will be taken against even bleaker.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited October 2022
    I see that Leon is back after the shortest ban on any forum anywhere in the world.

    So I'm off here for the evening. That's what Sean T does to this place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    HYUFD said:
    Under attack from the "globalists". hmmmm
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited October 2022
    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I don't know what you are getting so het up about. It seems to me the argument is not whether it is the correct form for a letter in general, but whether it is the correct form for Prime Ministerial letters accepting resignations. Multiple examples were dug out demonstrating that it apparently is.

    Weird, but many conventions are weird. The examples are right there apparently, it wasn't Truss messing up.

    It's certainly not like Truss, Boris or any other PM writes the letters themselves, someone will have put it into a template.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
  • TresTres Posts: 2,700

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    It's Hodges, he's the Roger of blue-tick kitchen obsessed London journos.
  • Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    Well, yes. I mean, isn't there some law against putting people up in Premier Inns?
    Tip. When you are about to post your one-liners, pause and ask yourself if they fall into the category of facetious or, worse, snide rather than funny.

    xx
    Strange hill to die on. Are you the CEO/a receptionist/cleaner for Premier Inns?
  • ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    Well, yes. I mean, isn't there some law against putting people up in Premier Inns?
    Tip. When you are about to post your one-liners, pause and ask yourself if they fall into the category of facetious or, worse, snide rather than funny.

    xx
    I did.

    And it was still a fair comment.

    Never had a decent night's sleep in a Premier Inn.
    I'd hate to think facetious or snide one-liners are no longer permitted. Adding a second line would rarely improve them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited October 2022

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
    Who is she blaming for this outrage?

    Priti Patel?
    Grant Shapps?
    Herself?

    She is literally the Home Secretary, the buck stops with her.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    Also closing the lorry routes had a significant effect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    HYUFD said:
    Under attack from the "globalists". hmmmm
    Person A: We stand for globalism and not nationalism.
    Person B: I'm against globalism.
    Person A: You can't say that; it's a dog whistle!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I don't know what you are getting so het up about. It seems to me the argument is not whether it is the correct form for a letter in general, but whether it is the correct form for Prime Ministerial letters accepting resignations. Multiple examples were dug out demonstrating that it apparently is.

    Weird, but many conventions are weird.

    It's certainly not like Truss, Boris or any other PM writes the letters themselves, someone will have put it into a template.
    Who's getting het up? The person who made a passing joke about Liz Truss, or the people indignantly queueing up to say there is a special convention for replying to resignation letters, used by every prime minister that ever was - on the basis of a couple of examples written by Boris Johnson?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    Truss shook us out of our denial.
    If there was denial, it was cross-party, cross-media, and supported by analysts.

    Sounds plausible to me. Economic forecasting seems a futile profession to be in.
    They should have been fixing the roof when the sun was shining for sure!

    When was it actually broken?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    Off topic, we went out for a stroll earlier and the local estate was mobbed with Trick or Treaters. Disappointing lack of mums in witches outfits, however.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    Also closing the lorry routes had a significant effect.
    Are you sure?
    Because lorry traffic is back up (I think), but the asylum crossings are still escalating.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:
    Under attack from the "globalists". hmmmm
    Person A: We stand for globalism and not nationalism.
    Person B: I'm against globalism.
    Person A: You can't say that; it's a dog whistle!
    There’s something odd about this post.
    Something just doesn’t feel right.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    Well, yes. I mean, isn't there some law against putting people up in Premier Inns?
    Tip. When you are about to post your one-liners, pause and ask yourself if they fall into the category of facetious or, worse, snide rather than funny.

    xx
    Strange hill to die on. Are you the CEO/a receptionist/cleaner for Premier Inns?
    Perhaps she doesn’t like snobbery.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
    Who is she blaming for this outrage?

    Priti Patel?
    Grant Shapps?
    Herself?

    She is literally the Home Secretary, the buck stops with her.
    She seems to be blaming Priti which makes me wonder if Priti is about to jump ship to team Farage. The only big beast of Boris time not to feature under either Rishi or Truss
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    Could happen, but who are the extra "record breaking" early voters supporting?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8oC1pd7XcM
    Georgia surpasses 1 million early votes cast ahead of Election Day
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8oC1pd7XcM
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I've already provided a link showing that it is indeed the convention for this type of letter.

    e.g., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1088366/Letter_to_Sajid_Javid.pdf
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Nigelb said:

    I like the Japanese “low key Halloween” tradition.
    https://twitter.com/makiwi/status/1322494883802828800

    We've 'done' Halloween for the first time this year. I've resisted it so far, but this year I gave in. We've carved pumpkins before, but we've never lit one up outside out front door (the village's sign that you're taking part). So far we've had about a hundred people at our front door in a wide variety of outfits; from Harry Potter to a blow-up Samuraa suit. And it's been tremendous fun. The little 'uns loved it.

    Pretty expensive in sweets, but the smiles are worth the cost. :)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    I see that Leon is back after the shortest ban on any forum anywhere in the world.

    So I'm off here for the evening. That's what Sean T does to this place.

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Bloody hell, has a weaker point ever been made? Because you don't get to be the Magnificent Seven till you have seen off the bad guys, and we know that Suella has NO ANSWER AT ALL to the problem. What's she gonna do, Apache gunships in the channel? Cram them into multi storey mass graves at Manston and sod the Courts? What?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Off topic, we went out for a stroll earlier and the local estate was mobbed with Trick or Treaters. Disappointing lack of mums in witches outfits, however.

    Wife has secured treats in case anyone calls round, but the weather outside suggests we will be eating them ourselves.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Leon said:

    The Dinghy People Thing is approaching crisis status. I have yet to see even the vaguest suggestion of a solution - from anyone (Tories or Labour or anyone). Apart from Rwanda. Which has not even been tried, and which might likely fail, but we won’t know til we try

    When Labour become the government in 2024 (as they surely will) this will be their problem. I wonder what they will do, with so many on their side saying, in effect “just let them all in”

    Since you’re back, I’ll repost this for you, before you go on to explaining your own solution to the Channel problem.

    Did you get around to apologising for peddling the smears ?

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1586799992978776065
    According to @NBCNews’ @anblanx : Police say on the record that Paul Pelosi and his suspected attacker did not know each other prior to the attack. It was a break-in.

    This directly contradicts conspiracy theories pushed by (and since deleted by) Twitter owner Elon Musk.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    Also closing the lorry routes had a significant effect.
    Are you sure?
    Because lorry traffic is back up (I think), but the asylum crossings are still escalating.

    Sorry, wasn’t clear. It’s much harder to get in via the back of a lorry than before. I didn’t mean the actual flows of lorries.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    edited October 2022
    Early evening all :)

    While we await any final polls from Denmark where they vote tomorrow, some interesting developments in Austria where they won't be voting (presumably) until 2024.

    The latest poll for the Puls 24 as follows (changes from the 2019 election):

    Social Democrats: 25% (+4)
    Freedom Party: 24% (+8)
    People's Party: 19% (-18)
    Beer Party: 10% (new)
    NEOS: 10% (+2)
    Greens: 8% (-6)

    The governing People's Party/Green Coalition has fallen from 51% to 27% (an almost UK Conservative fall in support).

    Some of the more observant may havr noticed the Beer Party on 10%. As a satirical "party", it's been around in 2014 - its current leader, one Dominik Wlazny, known professionally as Marco Pogo, stood in the recent Austrian presidential election and finished third, albeit a very long way behind but in Vienna he finished second with 10.5% albeit again well behind Van der Bellen (the Green candidate supported by the Social Democrats and People's Party) who won with 47% of the vote.

    The Beer Party's main campaigning aims as follows (from the 2020 elections):

    A beer fountain for Vienna replacing the Hochstrahlbrunnen
    Allow outdoor dining in winter
    Mandatory aptitude test for politicians
    Cover fixed pandemic-related costs to save the culture scene
    Abolish mandatory closing times for restaurants and bars
    Abolish tax on drinks in bars/restaurants and compensate with a new 50% tax on Radlers and "other atrocities"
    Universal monthly provision of a barrel of beer to all Austrian households (50L per adult and 20L per child)
    Banning Radlers in Vienna and instituting a Radler buyback program exchanging Radlers for beer
    Increasing voter turnout by allowing voters to "return the seriousness to Austrian politics that it deserves"
    A person is a person, live and let live (except for Radler-drinkers)


    There seems to be an issue with Radlers and its drinkers but there's one or two ideas in the above to which I'm sure we could all sign up.

    Without the Beer Party (or assuming they're too busy in the Gasthaus to campaign):

    Social Democrats: 27%
    Freedom Party: 25%
    People's Party: 20%
    NEOS: 11%
    Greens: 11%
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
    It might actually be mildly interesting to know whether this peculiar way of letter-writing is a recent innovation or whether it really predates the advent of mass illiteracy. But only mildly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited October 2022

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters and 35% of Remainers think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 88% of Conservative voters and 85% of Leavers agreeing with that. Her position has some popular appeal and will also be very popular with Tory members who will elect the next Tory leader, probably then Leader of the Opposition
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Could happen, but who are the extra "record breaking" early voters supporting?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8oC1pd7XcM
    Georgia surpasses 1 million early votes cast ahead of Election Day
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8oC1pd7XcM
    Less clear cut this time than the Covid divide in 2020 i think, but earlies would favour democrats usually
  • HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I wonder if this was the headline Braverman’s critics were hoping for:

    Braverman reveals they are up to 4 STAR hotels for migrants. Says bad use of public money. Gobsmacking.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1587140334852661249?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Nigelb said:

    I like the Japanese “low key Halloween” tradition.
    https://twitter.com/makiwi/status/1322494883802828800

    We've 'done' Halloween for the first time this year. I've resisted it so far, but this year I gave in. We've carved pumpkins before, but we've never lit one up outside out front door (the village's sign that you're taking part). So far we've had about a hundred people at our front door in a wide variety of outfits; from Harry Potter to a blow-up Samuraa suit. And it's been tremendous fun. The little 'uns loved it.

    Pretty expensive in sweets, but the smiles are worth the cost. :)
    Again, that apostrophe. It is uns, not 'uns, unless of course you see them as little 'un's?

    I'm cogitating how small, cheap, and easily inserted into a Quality Street a tab of LSD is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    They’re BACK


    “EXCLUSIVE: New classified report to Congress says only HALF of UFO sightings can be properly explained, leaving nearly 200 mysteries unsolved - as critics say investigators 'glossed over' unknown cases”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11373603/New-classified-report-congress-says-HALF-UFO-sightings-properly-explained.html

    Why do the mods give you a pass time after time after time? I thought after yesterday's appalling post that would be it. But no, not even a new nom de plume...
    Well that’s where you’re wrong
    Ah well. The pics you crib off other people's IG accounts are nice though.

    Why Thankyou. On that subject I had this today for the first time

    Hakarl. Rotting fermented shark meat buried underground for 3 months to purge most of the urine

    It is as disgusting as it sounds. In a lifetime of professionally sampling horrible exotic foods this went straight into the top ten




    I was once advised never to sample local 'delicacies', on the basis those that are not awful are probably literally offal.

    I'm sure many are a surprise on the upside, but if that description is right it sounds like starvation food only.

    Oh no, always sample local delicacies, you can discover wonderful things

    Admittedly many of them ARE offal, but they can be nice - like the late night tripe sandwiches in Florence - and, yes, sometimes you literally want to throw up, but I don’t see the point in travelling - to see new things - then not trying new foods. Isn’t that the point? Newness. We travel for the New

    OTOH some of them might be a piss-take (so to speak in this shark case) by the locals perpetrated upon the tourists. Like deep-fried Mars bars in Edinburgh.
    I thought there was an echt and original deep fried mars bar? As in, they really were a local delicacy in some benighted chippy in Dundee or wherever?

    I accept that they are now a wider, national joke viewed ironically on all sides, but I believe there is authenticity at the heart

    Cf deep fried pizza slices
    Definitely a tourist thing in Edinburgh - I was there at the time and saw the notices go up in a Grassmarket chippie and thought wtf?! Precisely the place to catch the young tourist trade with the hostels in the Cowgate and Grassmarket.

    Oh, the pizza slices are battered and deep-fried as routine. (I remmber some Italian graduate students at a conference discovering this too late ...). Scots chippies do the deep-frying with almost everything - I remember deep-fried steak pie ca 1970. But they have diversified - organic wholefood stuff, steamed fish and olives and salad and all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
    It might actually be mildly interesting to know whether this peculiar way of letter-writing is a recent innovation or whether it really predates the advent of mass illiteracy. But only mildly.
    I'm surprised people are surprised.

    image

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    Nigelb said:

    I like the Japanese “low key Halloween” tradition.
    https://twitter.com/makiwi/status/1322494883802828800

    We've 'done' Halloween for the first time this year. I've resisted it so far, but this year I gave in. We've carved pumpkins before, but we've never lit one up outside out front door (the village's sign that you're taking part). So far we've had about a hundred people at our front door in a wide variety of outfits; from Harry Potter to a blow-up Samuraa suit. And it's been tremendous fun. The little 'uns loved it.

    Pretty expensive in sweets, but the smiles are worth the cost. :)
    Pissing down with rain here in the Midlands boondocks and so the quota of knocks on the door has been reduced to zero so far.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
    It might actually be mildly interesting to know whether this peculiar way of letter-writing is a recent innovation or whether it really predates the advent of mass illiteracy. But only mildly.
    I think I've seen that form used in early to mid C19 letters, come to think of it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I've already provided a link showing that it is indeed the convention for this type of letter.

    e.g., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1088366/Letter_to_Sajid_Javid.pdf
    Well, again, it would be mildly - though only mildly - interesting to know when this peculiarity got started and where it is used. From other examples online, it's nothing to do with resignation letters. It has been used for other prime ministerial correspondence. There is a Margaret Thatcher example from 1982 online. So contrary to what I would have expected it doesn't seem to be a recent innovation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    25m
    What is the policy solution to the migrant small boats crisis?

    ===

    Nobody knows, otherwise it would be being done frankly.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    I wonder if this was the headline Braverman’s critics were hoping for:

    Braverman reveals they are up to 4 STAR hotels for migrants. Says bad use of public money. Gobsmacking.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1587140334852661249?

    I don't think people are necessarily going to be blaming the immigrants, though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
    Mmm.

    This is a brief and digestible primer.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-creepiest-and-most-dystopian-things-pushed-world-economic-forum-wef

    I don't subscribe to the views of the author, or endorse the site by the way, but I do think the WEF is a group of very stupid people and the garbage they come out with has the potential to be quite damaging.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
    It might actually be mildly interesting to know whether this peculiar way of letter-writing is a recent innovation or whether it really predates the advent of mass illiteracy. But only mildly.
    Jesus. Are you a sexton by trade?

    If you calm down and tyhink about it you will see that it is a relic of the days before window envelopes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited October 2022

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    Well, yes. I mean, isn't there some law against putting people up in Premier Inns?
    Tip. When you are about to post your one-liners, pause and ask yourself if they fall into the category of facetious or, worse, snide rather than funny.

    xx
    Strange hill to die on. Are you the CEO/a receptionist/cleaner for Premier Inns?
    Perhaps she doesn’t like snobbery.
    Apart frrom anything else, it was Premier Inns which made the top in the Which survey this year. I don't think they are credibly a nasty bit of what the Tories plan [edit].
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The whole point of the Braverman performance was to tick every hard right box imaginable, using the most inflammatory language, and so to make it impossible for Sunak to sack her without major political repercussions. Her message to him is basically: "If I go, you do too". And Sunak's problem is that she could well be right.

    The thing is, she knows she is right; the current level of boat people is unsustainable, and when you know there's no comeback, you can go completely ham on something and challenge people to oppose you.

    What is more challenging for her is solving the damn thing.
    It's a classic dividing line issue, thought, because the Left - and plenty of (most?) liberal centrists too - refuse to accept it's even an issue, and to the extent they do they argue to make it easier, and therefore cede the entire terrain to the Conservatives - even though they have abjectly failed to solve it.

    It's clever politics. It's risky for the Conservatives only if they get outflanked to the Right.

    They have to deliver. That's the risk.

    They don't, as long as they have someone to blame for the failure- probably Human Rights Lawyers. In fact for some people, solving the problem would render them obsolete and that would never do.

    It's horrible, but the retail politics makes sense.

    Rhetoric without delivery after 12 years of power will not reap rewards. Most people are not hate-filled Daily Mail readers who view refugees as sub-human scum who deserve firebombing, diphtheria and detention. They just want solutions. If the Tories are not providing any they will look elsewhere.
    They want solutions which don't involve shelling out £200/person/night indefinitely, though.
    So do I!

    Absurd to pretend that the only choices are £200/night hotel rooms and disease incubating tent camps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I've already provided a link showing that it is indeed the convention for this type of letter.

    e.g., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1088366/Letter_to_Sajid_Javid.pdf
    Well, again, it would be mildly - though only mildly - interesting to know when this peculiarity got started and where it is used. From other examples online, it's nothing to do with resignation letters. It has been used for other prime ministerial correspondence. There is a Margaret Thatcher example from 1982 online. So contrary to what I would have expected it doesn't seem to be a recent innovation.
    Probably a clerical error which someone was too timid to question, and others assumed it was the convention. Which it became.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
    The truth is, The actual damage on the government is the fact it has needlessly come to £600 hotel rooms - because experts and officials correctly predicted the rise in crossings, but boosting processing centre capacity and processing speed of claims never happened. The tardy government did not do its job in boosting processing centre capacity and speeding up claims when given the predicted rise in forecasts, allowing itself to be distracted by other things, internal party leaking against each other etc, hence it comes to these costs to tidy up the needless mess, they are now trying to campaign against?

    The actual invasion causing this crisis we should wave our fists at, is an invasion of Whitehall by incompetent government ministers, not reacting to what proved accurate official forecasts, and improving neither processing centre capacity, nor the speed of dealing with claims, despite given years and years to improve these things!

    You could not invent a more dysfunctional political party, as the Tories have become right now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I've already provided a link showing that it is indeed the convention for this type of letter.

    e.g., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1088366/Letter_to_Sajid_Javid.pdf
    Well, again, it would be mildly - though only mildly - interesting to know when this peculiarity got started and where it is used. From other examples online, it's nothing to do with resignation letters. It has been used for other prime ministerial correspondence. There is a Margaret Thatcher example from 1982 online. So contrary to what I would have expected it doesn't seem to be a recent innovation.
    In fact, after a minute or two more Googling, I am now thinking it's actually the old way of writing letters - with the recipient's name and sometimes address at the bottom left rather than above the body of the letter - rather than anything to do with prime ministers or resignations.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    stodge said:

    Early evening all :)

    While we await any final polls from Denmark where they vote tomorrow, some interesting developments in Austria where they won't be voting (presumably) until 2024.

    The latest poll for the Puls 24 as follows (changes from the 2019 election):

    Social Democrats: 25% (+4)
    Freedom Party: 24% (+8)
    People's Party: 19% (-18)
    Beer Party: 10% (new)
    NEOS: 10% (+2)
    Greens: 8% (-6)

    The governing People's Party/Green Coalition has fallen from 51% to 27% (an almost UK Conservative fall in support).

    Some of the more observant may havr noticed the Beer Party on 10%. As a satirical "party", it's been around in 2014 - its current leader, one Dominik Wlazny, known professionally as Marco Pogo, stood in the recent Austrian presidential election and finished third, albeit a very long way behind but in Vienna he finished second with 10.5% albeit again well behind Van der Bellen (the Green candidate supported by the Social Democrats and People's Party) who won with 47% of the vote.

    The Beer Party's main campaigning aims as follows (from the 2020 elections):

    A beer fountain for Vienna replacing the Hochstrahlbrunnen
    Allow outdoor dining in winter
    Mandatory aptitude test for politicians
    Cover fixed pandemic-related costs to save the culture scene
    Abolish mandatory closing times for restaurants and bars
    Abolish tax on drinks in bars/restaurants and compensate with a new 50% tax on Radlers and "other atrocities"
    Universal monthly provision of a barrel of beer to all Austrian households (50L per adult and 20L per child)
    Banning Radlers in Vienna and instituting a Radler buyback program exchanging Radlers for beer
    Increasing voter turnout by allowing voters to "return the seriousness to Austrian politics that it deserves"
    A person is a person, live and let live (except for Radler-drinkers)


    There seems to be an issue with Radlers and its drinkers but there's one or two ideas in the above to which I'm sure we could all sign up.

    Without the Beer Party (or assuming they're too busy in the Gasthaus to campaign):

    Social Democrats: 27%
    Freedom Party: 25%
    People's Party: 20%
    NEOS: 11%
    Greens: 11%

    Christ, can we get a Beer Party here too, please?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Tres said:

    Tories gone full UKIP. Nasty nasty party.

    It isn't nasty to be against illegal migration.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    stodge said:

    Early evening all :)

    While we await any final polls from Denmark where they vote tomorrow, some interesting developments in Austria where they won't be voting (presumably) until 2024.

    The latest poll for the Puls 24 as follows (changes from the 2019 election):

    Social Democrats: 25% (+4)
    Freedom Party: 24% (+8)
    People's Party: 19% (-18)
    Beer Party: 10% (new)
    NEOS: 10% (+2)
    Greens: 8% (-6)

    The governing People's Party/Green Coalition has fallen from 51% to 27% (an almost UK Conservative fall in support).

    Some of the more observant may havr noticed the Beer Party on 10%. As a satirical "party", it's been around in 2014 - its current leader, one Dominik Wlazny, known professionally as Marco Pogo, stood in the recent Austrian presidential election and finished third, albeit a very long way behind but in Vienna he finished second with 10.5% albeit again well behind Van der Bellen (the Green candidate supported by the Social Democrats and People's Party) who won with 47% of the vote.

    The Beer Party's main campaigning aims as follows (from the 2020 elections):

    A beer fountain for Vienna replacing the Hochstrahlbrunnen
    Allow outdoor dining in winter
    Mandatory aptitude test for politicians
    Cover fixed pandemic-related costs to save the culture scene
    Abolish mandatory closing times for restaurants and bars
    Abolish tax on drinks in bars/restaurants and compensate with a new 50% tax on Radlers and "other atrocities"
    Universal monthly provision of a barrel of beer to all Austrian households (50L per adult and 20L per child)
    Banning Radlers in Vienna and instituting a Radler buyback program exchanging Radlers for beer
    Increasing voter turnout by allowing voters to "return the seriousness to Austrian politics that it deserves"
    A person is a person, live and let live (except for Radler-drinkers)


    There seems to be an issue with Radlers and its drinkers but there's one or two ideas in the above to which I'm sure we could all sign up.

    Without the Beer Party (or assuming they're too busy in the Gasthaus to campaign):

    Social Democrats: 27%
    Freedom Party: 25%
    People's Party: 20%
    NEOS: 11%
    Greens: 11%

    Christ, can we get a Beer Party here too, please?
    We used to, when the LDs were the political wing of CAMRA.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    They can, it's an agreement with France that stands in the way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The issue is stopping them at source, something the new Italian Meloni government is keen on ie in Africa or the Mediterrenean ultimately. All European nations need to take some genuine humanitarian refugees but we cannot just take in unlimited numbers of economic migrants
  • HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    25m
    What is the policy solution to the migrant small boats crisis?

    ===

    Nobody knows, otherwise it would be being done frankly.

    That's very flawed logic. There are manifold reasons why the right solutions aren't applied to situations, especially in politics. 'Nobody knowing' would come very far down that list.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
    Mmm.

    This is a brief and digestible primer.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-creepiest-and-most-dystopian-things-pushed-world-economic-forum-wef

    I don't subscribe to the views of the author, or endorse the site by the way, but I do think the WEF is a group of very stupid people and the garbage they come out with has the potential to be quite damaging.
    ... but ...

    It's Zerohedge.

    Ignore.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
    This isn't the blame game. The dividing line is whether you think the government is to blame for not preventing the numbers from getting so large, or whether the government is to blame for not doing more to facilitate such large numbers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Of course no-one thinks we should pay £600 a night for hotel rooms. It is just that some of us will blame the people in power for the last 12 years whereas others prefer to blame everyone else.
    The truth is, The actual damage on the government is the fact it has needlessly come to £600 hotel rooms - because experts and officials correctly predicted the rise in crossings, but boosting processing centre capacity and processing speed of claims never happened. The tardy government did not do its job in boosting processing centre capacity and speeding up claims when given the predicted rise in forecasts, allowing itself to be distracted by other things, internal party leaking against each other etc, hence it comes to these costs to tidy up the needless mess, they are now trying to campaign against?

    The actual invasion causing this crisis we should wave our fists at, is an invasion of Whitehall by incompetent government ministers, not reacting to what proved accurate official forecasts, and improving neither processing centre capacity, nor the speed of dealing with claims, despite given years and years to improve these things!

    You could not invent a more dysfunctional political party, as the Tories have become right now.
    Yet all the PB Tories are back on board.

    To quote Theresa May, “Nothing has Changed”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    "In 2018, the UK received a total of 37,453 asylum applications, and made 5,510 outgoing transfer requests under Dublin III. Of these 5,510 requests, 209 migrants were transferred out of the UK under Dublin III, whilst 1,215 came in, making the UK a net recipient in 2018. "

    Only 4% of Dublin requests were accepted in 2018. 4%. 209 people.

    It's an utter irrelevance.


  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The issue is stopping them at source, something the new Italian Meloni government is keen on ie in Africa or the Mediterrenean ultimately. All European nations need to take some genuine humanitarian refugees but we cannot just take in unlimited numbers of economic migrants
    No, at some crazy level that's true, but the UK can take in the current number with hardly any impact on the average person's life at all, let alone a negative impact overall in the short or long term. So the spend is all about gestures, made by desperate politicians unable to deliver anything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    They can, it's an agreement with France that stands in the way.
    And if Le Pen keeps rising in the polls then Macron will need to do something to, Meloni is certainly keen for an agreement
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2022
    Oh FFS! If the right wingers REALLY want to stop immigration, they would dig a funeral pit and execute all illegal immigrants / channel crossers into it and broadcast it on BBC World Service. I guarantee you it would stop mass immigration.

    But nobody is going to do that so these people are going to keep arriving and you are going to have to spend money on solving the problem instead of listening to total w*nkers like Farage, Braverman and the other loons.

    Grow up and wipe the drool of your chins and the spittle off your screens. And while we are at it, just remember that if we had stayed in the EU we could have forced immigrants to be resettled back on the continent.

    And after that post I think I could do with some time away from politics and the utter whinge-fest and self-serving denial of reality from our own PB loons that passes for "solutions".

    Good night and good luck!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    I've already provided a link showing that it is indeed the convention for this type of letter.

    e.g., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1088366/Letter_to_Sajid_Javid.pdf
    Well, again, it would be mildly - though only mildly - interesting to know when this peculiarity got started and where it is used. From other examples online, it's nothing to do with resignation letters. It has been used for other prime ministerial correspondence. There is a Margaret Thatcher example from 1982 online. So contrary to what I would have expected it doesn't seem to be a recent innovation.
    It's standard form for Downing Street letters. No, I don't know why.

    What I do know is that it was a bloody stupid attack line - mostly propagated by people who should have known better.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Tiny bit of encouragement for Democrats after lots of poor polls.

    Georgia - after 6 polls in a row with Walker ahead (one was a tie), Sienna College (A+ pollster per 538) has Warnock +3.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    I like the Japanese “low key Halloween” tradition.
    https://twitter.com/makiwi/status/1322494883802828800

    We've 'done' Halloween for the first time this year. I've resisted it so far, but this year I gave in. We've carved pumpkins before, but we've never lit one up outside out front door (the village's sign that you're taking part). So far we've had about a hundred people at our front door in a wide variety of outfits; from Harry Potter to a blow-up Samuraa suit. And it's been tremendous fun. The little 'uns loved it.

    Pretty expensive in sweets, but the smiles are worth the cost. :)
    Again, that apostrophe. It is uns, not 'uns, unless of course you see them as little 'un's?

    I'm cogitating how small, cheap, and easily inserted into a Quality Street a tab of LSD is.
    The fact this drives you so insane that you need to comment on it every time, says a great deal about you.

    It's a term of affection. If you don't like it, the door is over there. ----->
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
    Mmm.

    This is a brief and digestible primer.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-creepiest-and-most-dystopian-things-pushed-world-economic-forum-wef

    I don't subscribe to the views of the author, or endorse the site by the way, but I do think the WEF is a group of very stupid people and the garbage they come out with has the potential to be quite damaging.
    ... but ...

    It's Zerohedge.

    Ignore.
    And authored by Vigilant Citizen, who's even whackier. But it's basically a resume of the WEF's own public statements; there's no allegation of conspiracy.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    In Edinburgh we're housing homeless people in Premier Inns too which makes me wonder what Premier Inns are really for.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Another canary in the economic coal mine: the bunny crisis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/31/giant-rabbits-looking-for-new-homes-northumberland-rescue

    'Jan Ormiston, an RSPCA trustee and volunteer, said the charity had more than twice the number of rabbits in shelters than before the pandemic. At the Northumberland West shelter, there would normally be about a dozen rabbits, she said, but there were now about 30.

    Ormiston said: “We have a rabbit crisis at the minute. We just have so many rabbits that have come into our care. It is unbelievable.” [...] many owners have given up their rabbits after realising they require as much care as a cat – and vet’s bills are just as expensive.'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    DJ41 said:

    🚨| BREAKING: Rishi Sunak in a major crisis as ‘Deeply unhappy’ Tory MPs are ALREADY drafting letters of no confidence in him.

    https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1587051559011160064?s=46&t=cCAoGMtV-HrWMD0Uh-dCiQ

    And so it begins.

    Why would an MP fuss over "drafting" a no confidence letter?

    All it needs to say is

    "Dear Graham, I have no confidence in Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party. Kind regards, [Forename] [Surname], MP for [Constituency]".


    Well, if it were Liz Truss, for example, she'd really need to take her time and check everything very carefully, to avoid those mistakes that are so easy to fall into - such as signing it "Rishi Sunak".
    Liz didn't make any mistakes in her written responses to resignations - she used the correct form as every PM before her had done. I wouldn't want you to make yourself look stupid by unwittingly repeating a falsehood.
    If that's the "correct form" for signing a letter I'm a Dutchman!
    Goedenavond heer.

    It was the correct form and was not, of course, a signature.
    True it wasn't a signature. Absurd to claim it was the "correct form" for a letter.
    Except it is.
    Have you ever used it?
    Has he ever accepted the resignation of a Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    I take it that means you haven't ever used the "correct form" for a letter either.

    Shocking!
    Here’s Johnson’s reply to Javid’s resignation. with Javid’s name at the bottom…




    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sajid-javids-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response
    It might actually be mildly interesting to know whether this peculiar way of letter-writing is a recent innovation or whether it really predates the advent of mass illiteracy. But only mildly.
    Jesus. Are you a sexton by trade?

    If you calm down and tyhink about it you will see that it is a relic of the days before window envelopes.
    I'm doubtful about the relevance of window envelopes, but certainly the receipient's name at the bottom is nothing to do with resignation letters as you implied it was earlier.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    "In 2018, the UK received a total of 37,453 asylum applications, and made 5,510 outgoing transfer requests under Dublin III. Of these 5,510 requests, 209 migrants were transferred out of the UK under Dublin III, whilst 1,215 came in, making the UK a net recipient in 2018. "

    Only 4% of Dublin requests were accepted in 2018. 4%. 209 people.

    It's an utter irrelevance.


    But Channel migrants have exploded since 2021.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

    They're not the ones taking large salaries and spending even larger sums of our taxes.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    eek said:

    Just booked a weekend away to do some Christmas Markets and a bit of museum visiting

    I'm under strict instructions not to reveal to Mrs Eek where we are going - but I keep on wanting to sing an Ultravox song.

    This means nothing to me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    An example of how out of touch Twitter is: #BringBackMasks is trending at the moment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    They can, it's an agreement with France that stands in the way.
    You mean…like the Dublin Agreement?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The Dinghy People Thing is approaching crisis status. I have yet to see even the vaguest suggestion of a solution - from anyone (Tories or Labour or anyone). Apart from Rwanda. Which has not even been tried, and which might likely fail, but we won’t know til we try

    When Labour become the government in 2024 (as they surely will) this will be their problem. I wonder what they will do, with so many on their side saying, in effect “just let them all in”

    Since you’re back, I’ll repost this for you, before you go on to explaining your own solution to the Channel problem.

    Did you get around to apologising for peddling the smears ?

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1586799992978776065
    According to @NBCNews’ @anblanx : Police say on the record that Paul Pelosi and his suspected attacker did not know each other prior to the attack. It was a break-in.

    This directly contradicts conspiracy theories pushed by (and since deleted by) Twitter owner Elon Musk.
    Dearie me. I will repost my response. If my boyfriend beat me up with a hammer while my wife was out for the evening I would deny knowing him, I would persuade him with if necessary cash inducements to deny knowing me, and the police would say "on the record" that we didn't know each other. How would they actually know, given the obvious can't-prove-a-negative issue? And I have on several occasions broken into the houses of people I know, and never into those of people I don't.

    And what is this prissy fucking nonsense about demanding rhat other posters apologise for things? Are you the site governess?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    "In 2018, the UK received a total of 37,453 asylum applications, and made 5,510 outgoing transfer requests under Dublin III. Of these 5,510 requests, 209 migrants were transferred out of the UK under Dublin III, whilst 1,215 came in, making the UK a net recipient in 2018. "

    Only 4% of Dublin requests were accepted in 2018. 4%. 209 people.

    It's an utter irrelevance.


    But Channel migrants have exploded since 2021.

    Suicide bombers now?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Totally normal….

    John Gibbs is one of several Republican House hopefuls facing a formidable obstacle: their own past statements.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/31/michigan-john-gibbs-statements-00064104
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

    They're not the ones taking large salaries and spending even larger sums of our taxes.
    They want to be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    "The system is broken. Illegal migration is out of control"

    Braverman

    Yet the party has had twelve years. Only twelve years to fix this.

    While that’s partly fair, the boat crossings aspect is much more recent than 12 years ago. It is a global problem, and probably needs global change.
    I was just looking at the stats.

    Seems to have taken off in 2021, perhaps in response to Britain exiting the Dublin Agreement in January 21.

    I’m surprised more has not been made of this connection.
    "In 2018, the UK received a total of 37,453 asylum applications, and made 5,510 outgoing transfer requests under Dublin III. Of these 5,510 requests, 209 migrants were transferred out of the UK under Dublin III, whilst 1,215 came in, making the UK a net recipient in 2018. "

    Only 4% of Dublin requests were accepted in 2018. 4%. 209 people.

    It's an utter irrelevance.


    But Channel migrants have exploded since 2021.

    Because the method was tested during Covid and found to be effective. They were told Brexit would put an end to crossings, and that's been disproven, so the business model is being run for all it's worth.

    Dublin would, at best, perhaps return 1-2% of those coming across - and I'm being very generous there.
  • Oh FFS! If the right wingers REALLY want to stop immigration, they would dig a funeral pit and execute all illegal immigrants / channel crossers into it and broadcast it on BBC World Service. I guarantee you it would stop mass immigration.

    But nobody is going to do that so these people are going to keep arriving and you are going to have to spend money on solving the problem instead of listening to total w*nkers like Farage, Braverman and the other loons.

    Grow up and wipe the drool of your chins and the spittle off your screens. And while we are at it, just remember that if we had stayed in the EU we could have forced immigrants to be resettled back on the continent.

    And after that post I think I could do with some time away from politics and the utter whinge-fest and self-serving denial of reality from our own PB loons that passes for "solutions".

    Good night and good luck!

    How could we force immigrants to be resettled back to the continent if we were in the EU

    I utterly reject the right but to suggest money and being in the EU would solve the problem is simply unrealistic

    Maybe you could detail exactly how you would prevent these terrible crossings rather than a rant

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    edited October 2022

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
    Mmm.

    This is a brief and digestible primer.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-creepiest-and-most-dystopian-things-pushed-world-economic-forum-wef

    I don't subscribe to the views of the author, or endorse the site by the way, but I do think the WEF is a group of very stupid people and the garbage they come out with has the potential to be quite damaging.
    ... but ...

    It's Zerohedge.

    Ignore.
    And authored by Vigilant Citizen, who's even whackier. But it's basically a resume of the WEF's own public statements; there's no allegation of conspiracy.
    Don't you understand little concepts like presentation and context?

    Zerohedge may, occasionally, have some truth in it. On days on the fifteenth month ending in Z. But for most of the time, people presenting it as sources, or 'primer', are fully enveloped in the cesspit.

    With such sites, use them as a potential source to get more information from more reliable sites, not as any form of evidence in themselves.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Sunak and Hunt say everyone will have to pay more tax in the years ahead - not just the wealthy.

    Fiscal black hole is “eye-watering”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/sunak-hunt-say-it-s-inevitable-all-britons-will-pay-more-tax

    Odd that literally nobody was talking about austerity three months ago, and now it’s become grim necessity all of a sudden.

    World Economic Forum.
    Ok. Got any material to share on that argument?
    Mmm.

    This is a brief and digestible primer.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-creepiest-and-most-dystopian-things-pushed-world-economic-forum-wef

    I don't subscribe to the views of the author, or endorse the site by the way, but I do think the WEF is a group of very stupid people and the garbage they come out with has the potential to be quite damaging.
    Thanks for sharing, but even with your caveats, the content is unmitigated bollocks.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

    It would help even more if those in power listened to and acted on timely advice from officials who explained capacity needed to be expanded by this summer to avoid this predicted processing crisis, and if the government of 12 years hadn’t built such a crisis backlog by never getting a grip on processing claims quickly enough.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    They can, it's an agreement with France that stands in the way.
    You mean…like the Dublin Agreement?
    I've eviscerated this argument of yours upthread.

    Please don't persist with it, and embarrass yourself.

    You're not thick.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Monkeys said:

    In Edinburgh we're housing homeless people in Premier Inns too which makes me wonder what Premier Inns are really for.

    Keeping them out of the North British and Caledonian? At least the buggers are building council homes up here - though not enough.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Andy_JS said:

    An example of how out of touch Twitter is: #BringBackMasks is trending at the moment.

    Yet we have Tweeters like Nigel Farage and Dan Hodges touted as reliable sources on what average people think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MikeL said:

    Tiny bit of encouragement for Democrats after lots of poor polls.

    Georgia - after 6 polls in a row with Walker ahead (one was a tie), Sienna College (A+ pollster per 538) has Warnock +3.

    I think the Democrats will probably win Georgia. Their problems are more in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania.
  • Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

    They're not the ones taking large salaries and spending even larger sums of our taxes.
    For any opposition seeking to go into government there need practical and credible answers to these questions
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Would be interesting to see polling on this:

    If Suella Braverman’s critics have a killer fact, they’d better deploy it fast. Because if there are many more debates like this - in which she can frame herself as the person preventing immigrants checking into £600 pound hotel rooms - she’s going to end up a national heroine.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1587149352614649856

    Note 31% of Labour voters and 35% of LD voters think boats carrying migrants should be turned back in the channel before they reach UK shores. As well as 84% of Conservative voters. Her position has some popular appeal
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/10/187e0/1?utm_source=twitter &utm_medium=daily_questions &utm_campaign=question_1
    The problem is they can't be.

    The real problem is nobody has a workable solution and that is across all parties
    The problem is the government is looking for others to blame.
    It would help if labour and others had a feasible answer which they simply do not

    They're not the ones taking large salaries and spending even larger sums of our taxes.
    They want to be.
    But they're not the ones being completely useless at great cost. (Not yet, perhaps, admittedly.)
This discussion has been closed.