Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Another demonstration of Tory ruthlessness – politicalbetting.com

16791112

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So far I’ve not seen a single Scot given a roll.

    Okay, there are only six of them, but c’mon, one or two are not as useless as some of the English MPs given government jobs. Honourable mention: Lamont. (Borderline sentient being: Mundell. Four cro-magnons.)

    Gove was born and raised in Scotland and is the new Levelling up Secretary, Ben Wallace was an MSP and is Defence Secretary again.
    It's the people who were actually elected by Scottish constituencies that we are concerned with. Mr Wallace isn't one now. It's about as relevant as winning a Blue Peter badge from 1968.
    In fairness the original opening did not specify consitutuencies, but 'a single Scot given a roll'.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    Doesn't the Rwanda policy cost £120mn? That's a hefty price tag for Owning the Libs. I'm sure there are cheaper ways of winding us up.
    It's a cracking deal.

    For Rwanda..
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Scotland - Jack stays
  • Options

    What are the odds on Gillian Keegan being next Tory leader?

    I'll tell you something, I would love it if that happens, love it.
  • Options

    I give that about 3/10. Stunningly tactical and narrow political thinking.

    Maybe that's what we'll get from Sunak: economic competence but stunningly narrow political thinking.

    2/10

    And the jury’s out on “economic competence”.
    The jury is always out on that issue you political and economic illiterate. It's deliberations at the moment seem to be rather likely to give the benefit of the doubt and indeed the markets seem to be settling.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,144

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    Doesn't the Rwanda policy cost £120mn? That's a hefty price tag for Owning the Libs. I'm sure there are cheaper ways of winding us up.
    It's a cracking deal.

    For Rwanda..
    I thought the airline involved had already pulled out of the deal?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    mwadams said:

    Eabhal said:

    OT But I'm quite pissed Ford is stopping production of the Focus and Fiesta, going for SUVs only.

    I hate this trend of massive cars. We aren't the US, you don't need one and our streets aren't built for them. The German's have a good word - Wankpanzers

    If I remember correctly, is it not because Ford basically doesn't make any money making these small cars. They are incredibly reliant on the F-150 as the big driver of profitability.
    I suspect Ford are heading towards another existential crisis.
    If they're abandoning the excellent Fiesta for their revolting outsize SUVs they bloody deserve it.

    That's nearly as dumb as making Braverman HS.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    TimS said:

    I was worried that Sunak may be a serious threat to Labour, that he really would focus on stability, competence and integrity, and make the narrative all about there being no alternative to austerity. Without being in any way complacent, I am less concerned than I was.

    Right?

    Look at all the appointments and you realise it’s the same old same old. He’s not going to bring in anyone on the left of the party - insofar as they still exist - so by default he’s fishing in a very limited pool.

    These are almost all, with the possible exception of Badenoch, the usual suspects who’ve been in and out of cabinet for years. It shows a Tory party that is fatigued and stale.

    I’d also worried this would be a reset, but no. Like the Russian military he has a limited and dwindling range of weaponry at his disposal and most of it has been blown up in ammunition depots already.
    Im sorry but thats horse doings.
    Hunt aside almost none of these had served in cabinet before May, most of them werent elected till 2010 or 2015.
  • Options
    MikeL said:

    Scotland - Jack stays

    If he hadn't it could have been:

    Scotland: Jack off.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,803
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So far I’ve not seen a single Scot given a roll.

    Okay, there are only six of them, but c’mon, one or two are not as useless as some of the English MPs given government jobs. Honourable mention: Lamont. (Borderline sentient being: Mundell. Four cro-magnons.)

    Gove was born and raised in Scotland and is the new Levelling up Secretary, Ben Wallace was an MSP and is Defence Secretary again.
    It's the people who were actually elected by Scottish constituencies that we are concerned with. Mr Wallace isn't one now. It's about as relevant as winning a Blue Peter badge from 1968.
    In fairness the original opening did not specify consitutuencies, but 'a single Scot given a roll'.
    Point taken, it is amibguous, but you can go blood and soil, or you can go proper parliamentary democracy, and I prefer to use the latter (Scottish voters/reperesentatives).
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714
    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    Sunak will have lost a lot of goodwill today. Very disappointing. Braverman was a huge, huge mistake, as was ridding Mordaunt. Apart from Hunt I can't see that this cabinet is any more competent than the second rate ones that have came before.

    What we have is a cabinet designed primarily to appease the very people who have got us into this mess in the first place.
    He's lost goodwill from people who never would have voted Conservative anyway.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Wales - David TC Davies
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303

    MikeL said:

    Scotland - Jack stays

    If he hadn't it could have been:

    Scotland: Jack off.
    Or Jocks: Jack Off?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,803
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Scotland - Jack stays

    If he hadn't it could have been:

    Scotland: Jack off.
    Or Jocks: Jack Off?
    Doesn't construe. The two names are sister variants. It's like saying Taffies: David off.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    When I was in France a few weeks ago they were virtually running Braverman's boast about sending asylum seekers to Rwanda on a loup. Do you really think our international reputation is of so little importance it's worth losing it as long as we piss of Guardian reading lefties?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    So far I’ve not seen a single Scot given a roll.

    Okay, there are only six of them, but c’mon, one or two are not as useless as some of the English MPs given government jobs. Honourable mention: Lamont. (Borderline sentient being: Mundell. Four cro-magnons.)

    Gove was born and raised in Scotland and is the new Levelling up Secretary, Ben Wallace was an MSP and is Defence Secretary again.
    Oh, the Franco Fan is doing “blood n soil” nationality today. Quelle surprise.
    I thought you Natz like that kind of thing. It is normally you that disdainfully refers to "the English" as though we are all some kind of uniform un-diverse collection of beings worthy of the derision of the oh so superior tartan volk.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    MikeL said:

    Wales - David TC Davies

    Er - really?

    Out of 14 Welsh MPs, even allowing for the fact one's a pervert, one's a drunk, one is mad as a box of frogs and one is Chief Whip, surely they could have found one who could have been better suited to the role than him?

    Stephen Crabbe springs to mind.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,906
    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Eabhal said:

    OT But I'm quite pissed Ford is stopping production of the Focus and Fiesta, going for SUVs only.

    I hate this trend of massive cars. We aren't the US, you don't need one and our streets aren't built for them. The German's have a good word - Wankpanzers

    If I remember correctly, is it not because Ford basically doesn't make any money making these small cars. They are incredibly reliant on the F-150 as the big driver of profitability.
    I suspect Ford are heading towards another existential crisis.
    If they're abandoning the excellent Fiesta for their revolting outsize SUVs they bloody deserve it.

    That's nearly as dumb as making Braverman HS.
    My fiesta is so good. 1.0l ecoboost is great.

    I can get 4 mountaineers, wetsuits, tents, bikes and everything into/on it. I might go up to a Focus next time if I get a dog.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    The cabinet does make me realise though - crikey, do they need a bit of time to recharge and restock in opposition. The lack of talent on display here is pretty telling.

    I will give them Hunt, Gove, Wallace, Badenoch and Penny. Beyond that, there’s nobody of any great skill and/or substance.
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    And that's the worst of it. Even on its own terms, the policy can't work, because of arithmetic.

    But this government is at the point where it's happy to persist with a cruel trick on its supporters. Partly because it annoys the right people, and partly because it makes sadists horny.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Eabhal said:

    OT But I'm quite pissed Ford is stopping production of the Focus and Fiesta, going for SUVs only.

    I hate this trend of massive cars. We aren't the US, you don't need one and our streets aren't built for them. The German's have a good word - Wankpanzers

    If I remember correctly, is it not because Ford basically doesn't make any money making these small cars. They are incredibly reliant on the F-150 as the big driver of profitability.
    I suspect Ford are heading towards another existential crisis.
    If they're abandoning the excellent Fiesta for their revolting outsize SUVs they bloody deserve it.

    That's nearly as dumb as making Braverman HS.
    My fiesta is so good. 1.0l ecoboost is great.

    I can get 4 mountaineers, wetsuits, tents, bikes and everything into/on it. I might go up to a Focus next time if I get a dog.
    THey're dropping that as well, which is a shame because the modern Focus was a brilliant car. You'll have to have a Puma.
  • Options
    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    When I was in France a few weeks ago they were virtually running Braverman's boast about sending asylum seekers to Rwanda on a loup. Do you really think our international reputation is of so little importance it's worth losing it as long as we piss of Guardian reading lefties?
    Are they also talking about the Danes?

    Denmark to Send Immigrants to Rwanda

    September 12, 2022

    Denmark to Send Immigrants to Rwanda.

    Rather than allowing immigrants to live in Denmark, they will be sent to Rwanda, where Danish officials will manage their asylum cases.

    In a joint declaration on bilateral cooperation, the two nations stated that they were “exploring the establishment of a program through which spontaneous asylum seekers arriving in Denmark may be transferred to Rwanda for consideration of their asylum applications.”

    The statement added that it would also offer “the option of settling in Rwanda.” The declaration was made public on the website of the Danish Ministry of Immigration and Integration.

    The fact that Rwanda now explicitly indicates that it wishes to receive Danish asylum seekers takes the collaboration agreement beyond the two nations’ prior announcement of a partnership arrangement in 2021.

    Denmark‘s intention to construct an offshore or “third-country” refugee center was discussed in earlier statements in more general terms.

    Kaare Dybvad Bek and Flemming Miller Mortensen, Danish foreign development and immigration ministers, are currently in Rwanda, where they conducted a news conference on Friday to announce the new deal.

    The ruling Social Democratic Party has long expressed a desire to establish an offshore asylum center. The Danish Foreign Ministry has declared the opening of a local office in Kigali, where two of the ministry’s diplomats would be stationed beginning later this year.

  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,962
    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    When I was in France a few weeks ago they were virtually running Braverman's boast about sending asylum seekers to Rwanda
    on a loup. Do you really think our international reputation is of so little importance it's worth losing it as long as we piss of Guardian reading lefties?
    Why were they running the story on a wolf? Was it on French Fox News?
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,906
    edited October 2022
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Eabhal said:

    OT But I'm quite pissed Ford is stopping production of the Focus and Fiesta, going for SUVs only.

    I hate this trend of massive cars. We aren't the US, you don't need one and our streets aren't built for them. The German's have a good word - Wankpanzers

    If I remember correctly, is it not because Ford basically doesn't make any money making these small cars. They are incredibly reliant on the F-150 as the big driver of profitability.
    I suspect Ford are heading towards another existential crisis.
    If they're abandoning the excellent Fiesta for their revolting outsize SUVs they bloody deserve it.

    That's nearly as dumb as making Braverman HS.
    My fiesta is so good. 1.0l ecoboost is great.

    I can get 4 mountaineers, wetsuits, tents, bikes and everything into/on it. I might go up to a Focus next time if I get a dog.
    I'm not sure if I'm going to get rinsed by DA or not. Holding my breath...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,022
    Andy_JS said:

    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    Sunak will have lost a lot of goodwill today. Very disappointing. Braverman was a huge, huge mistake, as was ridding Mordaunt. Apart from Hunt I can't see that this cabinet is any more competent than the second rate ones that have came before.

    What we have is a cabinet designed primarily to

    appease the very people who have got us into this mess in the first place.
    He's lost goodwill from people who never would have voted Conservative anyway.
    You are starting to sound like a Blue Corbynite
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    Shame that it's administratively disastrous.

    I was hoping for sound government,* not stupid politics.

    *Or at least, not totally unsound government as we had in the last three and a half years.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,862
    Andy_JS said:

    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    Sunak will have lost a lot of goodwill today. Very disappointing. Braverman was a huge, huge mistake, as was ridding Mordaunt. Apart from Hunt I can't see that this cabinet is any more competent than the second rate ones that have came before.

    What we have is a cabinet designed primarily to appease the very people who have got us into this mess in the first place.
    He's lost goodwill from people who never would have voted Conservative anyway.
    Remainer leaning Tories in southern seats aren’t going to be loving Bravermans appointment . This might appeal to the Red Wall but against that there’s no money to splash .

    Immigration alone won’t keep those Red Wall seats .

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Leader of House of Lords - Lord True stays
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    By the way - pile on Kemi for next leader again:

    1. Stays in post but with the equalities brief giving her more of a platform for the anti-woke red meat.

    2. International Trade is a great little springboard - look at all the positive press it gave to Liz Truss (albeit I appreciate not necessarily someone to emulate!)

    3. Suella likely to come unstuck at Home Office one way or another.

    4. Kemi has a safe seat - should keep hold of it even if there is a rout.
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    It is pure politics and as a direct result of horse trading once Johnson stood down

    It will unite the party and lets see how Sunak deals with the Braverman appointment at PMQ's tomorrow when Starmer almost certainly raises it
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    MikeL said:

    Leader of House of Lords - Lord True stays

    Ironic name given so many of his cabinet colleagues are incorrigible liars.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    MikeL said:

    Leader of House of Lords - Lord True stays

    Say it isn’t True!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited October 2022
    We seem to be putting a huge amount of stock in who is Home Secretary or at Defra or whatever
    Did Merlyn Rees or Kenneth Baker swing a lot of votes in 79 or 92?
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.

    This sounds like a good line from one of the better Blackadder episodes. I can hear Rowan Atkinson speaking it.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714
    On topic, if the Tories are still below 30% in 12 months' time Sunak might find his position coming under pressure.
  • Options

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Why would the French agree to most of those? A processing centre yes. Joint patrols yes. But the rest? If we allowed a legal route for Syrians / Afghans etc to come here then we would have a defence. As we don't, the French and the rest of civilisation hear our "we are full of migrants" whining and rightly conclude that we're twunts.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303

    ydoethur said:

    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.

    This sounds like a good line from one of the better Blackadder episodes. I can hear Rowan Atkinson speaking it.
    Well, it was inspired by Blackadder's line about Olaf the Hairy and the battle helmets. But the words were all my own.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    Not sure I agree. Cleverly could and should have been dropped - maybe moved to Transport. Raab has been risible in Justice, he could have been DPM without keeping that, and I think Mordaunt's treatment was harsh.

    I very, very reluctantly agree that Braverman was probably the price of Not Boris, but I'm not happy about it.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    It is pure politics and as a direct result of horse trading once Johnson stood down

    It will unite the party and lets see how Sunak deals with the Braverman appointment at PMQ's tomorrow when Starmer almost certainly raises it
    Precisely.
    The Tory Party is as much of an unstable coalition of mutually opposed instincts as it was six months ago.
    The problem was far from being the previous two leaders alone.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, if the Tories are still below 30% in 12 months' time Sunak might find his position coming under pressure.

    I find it… quite unbelievable… that they would actually go through all this again before the next GE.

    I think they are going into the next election with Sunak now, for better or worse.

    … though I was the one who was scoffing about them getting rid of Truss before a GE, so perhaps I am giving them too much credit…
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Why would the French agree to most of those? A processing centre yes. Joint patrols yes. But the rest? If we allowed a legal route for Syrians / Afghans etc to come here then we would have a defence. As we don't, the French and the rest of civilisation hear our "we are full of migrants" whining and rightly conclude that we're twunts.
    Because of (4) to (8)
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, if the Tories are still below 30% in 12 months' time Sunak might find his position coming under pressure.

    I find it… quite unbelievable… that they would actually go through all this again before the next GE.

    I think they are going into the next election with Sunak now, for better or worse.

    … though I was the one who was scoffing about them getting rid of Truss before a GE, so perhaps I am giving them too much credit…
    Sunak is going nowhere despite those who long for the bad old days of Johnson and Truss
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.

    This sounds like a good line from one of the better Blackadder episodes. I can hear Rowan Atkinson speaking it.
    Well, it was inspired by Blackadder's line about Olaf the Hairy and the battle helmets. But the words were all my own.
    He could have appointed Harold the Horny Hunter to cabinet.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited October 2022

    ydoethur said:

    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.

    This sounds like a good line from one of the better Blackadder episodes. I can hear Rowan Atkinson speaking it.
    Its completely meaningless and inaccurate though. Not liking the appointnents is not commensurate with it being incompetence. A cabinet has been formed in one afternoon with no refusals or public rows. There is therefore no incompetence
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,165

    By the way - pile on Kemi for next leader again:

    1. Stays in post but with the equalities brief giving her more of a platform for the anti-woke red meat.

    2. International Trade is a great little springboard - look at all the positive press it gave to Liz Truss (albeit I appreciate not necessarily someone to emulate!)

    3. Suella likely to come unstuck at Home Office one way or another.

    4. Kemi has a safe seat - should keep hold of it even if there is a rout.

    If the India trade deal happens it would certainly help boost her reputation.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,862
    edited October 2022

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Not sure no 10 would be willing to accept 10-20k a year . There are some good suggestions there but no 3 would be politically very hard for Macron to sell to the French public .
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Why would the French agree to most of those? A processing centre yes. Joint patrols yes. But the rest? If we allowed a legal route for Syrians / Afghans etc to come here then we would have a defence. As we don't, the French and the rest of civilisation hear our "we are full of migrants" whining and rightly conclude that we're twunts.
    This is inverted exceptionalism. Does the rest of Europe think the Danes are twunts?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980

    What are the odds on Gillian Keegan being next Tory leader?

    I'll tell you something, I would love it if that happens, love it.
    She’s gotta go to Middlesbrough and get something.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, if the Tories are still below 30% in 12 months' time Sunak might find his position coming under pressure.

    I find it… quite unbelievable… that they would actually go through all this again before the next GE.

    I think they are going into the next election with Sunak now, for better or worse.

    … though I was the one who was scoffing about them getting rid of Truss before a GE, so perhaps I am giving them too much credit…
    Sunak is going nowhere despite those who long for the bad old days of Johnson and Truss
    Same old. Same old. BigG your earlier misgivings on Sunak seems to be realised. How long was that honeymoon? Five hours?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, if the Tories are still below 30% in 12 months' time Sunak might find his position coming under pressure.

    Looking at the Redfield red wall poll i doubt they'll be consistently under 30 in a fortnight, but they may well drop back under later
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    edited October 2022

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Striking a deal with France sounds like a remoaner woke talk.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030

    HYUFD said:

    So far I’ve not seen a single Scot given a roll.

    Okay, there are only six of them, but c’mon, one or two are not as useless as some of the English MPs given government jobs. Honourable mention: Lamont. (Borderline sentient being: Mundell. Four cro-magnons.)

    Gove was born and raised in Scotland and is the new Levelling up Secretary, Ben Wallace was an MSP and is Defence Secretary again.
    Oh, the Franco Fan is doing “blood n soil” nationality today. Quelle surprise.
    As opposed to Scottish Nationalists who applaud Yes SNP supporters like Brian Cox and Alan Cumming and the late Sir Sean Connery as true Scots from NYC and the Bahamas but apparently Scottish born UK government Cabinet Ministers don't count
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    It is pure politics and as a direct result of horse trading once Johnson stood down

    It will unite the party and lets see how Sunak deals with the Braverman appointment at PMQ's tomorrow when Starmer almost certainly raises it
    Precisely.
    The Tory Party is as much of an unstable coalition of mutually opposed instincts as it was six months ago.
    The problem was far from being the previous two leaders alone.
    We do need to accept we are all political obsessives on here but the public are not

    The danger for labour, and Starmer especially, is that if they turn the debate onto Braverman Sunak will just pile into Starmer as a human rights lawyer opposing action to stop the channel crossings which will not play well in red wall seats

    I am not suggesting Braverman's appointment was correct but pointing out the raw politics in this
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,898
    FPT
    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    glw said:

    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.

    It drives me nuts when I hear claims like that, and all too often from politicians and campaigners who should know better. It is not just misleading it is simply lying. That the media lap this stuff up and rarely challenge such claims makes me even angrier.
    Yes, me too.
    What has been achieved over the last 30 years has been astonishing. Why won't we celebrate this?
    It doesn't fit the usual media/NGO narrative of everything is terrible and getting worse. Saying that the UK is moving away from fossil fuels to renewable sources at a steady pace, and that we have already reached milestones like renewables providing a majority of electricity at times isn't as exciting as someone saying "nothing has been done and we are doomed".

    I'll tell you something else that's noticeable, you see a lot of cars with green flashes on the number plates now. EVs have gone from being rare, to few but hard to spot, to something you can see in ever increasing numbers. I've no doubt I'll be hearing campaigners saying "nothing is being done" when a majority of cars I see on the road have the green plates.
    This was posted at lunchtime but I couldn't reply then and I feel strongly about this.
    It is true that there have been great strides forward in renewable energy, electric cares and the rest of it. But this is not yet making any dent in the one thing that really, really matters.

    The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing. We are burning just as much coal/oil/gas as we ever were.

    It is great that Western Europe is doing so well at reducing direct emissions, but we have to reduce indirect emissions (buying things manufactured elsewhere) as well and get the rest of the world to follow in reducing direct emissions. Otherwise every ton of coal not burnt in Europe will result in an extra ton of coal being burnt somewhere else.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Why would the French agree to most of those? A processing centre yes. Joint patrols yes. But the rest? If we allowed a legal route for Syrians / Afghans etc to come here then we would have a defence. As we don't, the French and the rest of civilisation hear our "we are full of migrants" whining and rightly conclude that we're twunts.
    Because of (4) to (8)
    You are seeing immigration control through the prism of the UK's interest.

    (4) to (8) just reinforce things we want the French to do which help us. Save for the money but France isn't South Sudan so I'm not sure that will fly.
  • Options
    Fresh from my Truss winnings I’m going to invest some of them on the Sunak out before the GE markets.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    What are the odds on Gillian Keegan being next Tory leader?

    I'll tell you something, I would love it if that happens, love it.
    She’s gotta go to Middlesbrough and get something.
    She's the second best appointment by Sunak, and there's no higher praise than that.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    This has been the most imposing display of incompetence in cabinet building since an attempt was made to assemble a glass cabinet using only a sledgehammer.

    This sounds like a good line from one of the better Blackadder episodes. I can hear Rowan Atkinson speaking it.
    Well, it was inspired by Blackadder's line about Olaf the Hairy and the battle helmets. But the words were all my own.
    He could have appointed Harold the Horny Hunter to cabinet.
    But he had an enormous horn. Not a good look for the more sensitive voter.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?

    Williamson has gone in and not come out
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    nico679 said:

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Not sure no 10 would be willing to accept 10-20k a year . There are some good suggestions there but no 3 would be politically very hard for Macron to sell to the French public .
    At the moment, we are taking up to 60k a year. The optics are also terrible.

    Some of them are legit, most are economic migrants exploiting a loophole with people traffickers.

    My estimate is that approx 1/6th to 1/4th are legit (max) and we should work to take our share of those, whilst working with France to boot out the rest.

    We both help each other secure each other's borders, in other words.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    kle4 said:

    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?

    Williamson has gone in and not come out
    Big error (well, several), make the last one a good appointment people will remember. It's not like Williamson sets the right wing pulses racing like Braverman even.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    I'm slightly surprised to see people shocked that Braverman is back, this is the cost of doing business for Rishi. We all said how massively significant it was that she backed him instead of Boris, was anyone really that naïve that they thought it was a freebie?

    Politics is a messy business and sometimes getting down in the mud is the only way to win. Rishi showed he was a grown up rather than playing student politics by getting political enemies like SB on side. Is it ideal? Obviously not, but the alternative is Boris bringing back Priti or SB for HS. SB was the kingmaker, this was her price.

    If Braverman genuinely held the fate of the PM in her hands, then he's pretty useless as PM anyway.
    There's no good way to spin it.
    Whether or not that's true is irrelevant because the alternative would be Boris as PM and probably Braverman as home secretary.
    But there is not going to be a member's vote now. Boris is gone and we still have Suella "Rwanda" Braverman back in post.
    Whatever else it is, it's clever politics. There won't be any rebellions from the right now.
    That is my overall impression. It's a politically astute set of appointments.
    It is pure politics and as a direct result of horse trading once Johnson stood down

    It will unite the party and lets see how Sunak deals with the Braverman appointment at PMQ's tomorrow when Starmer almost certainly raises it
    Precisely.
    The Tory Party is as much of an unstable coalition of mutually opposed instincts as it was six months ago.
    The problem was far from being the previous two leaders alone.
    We do need to accept we are all political obsessives on here but the public are not

    The danger for labour, and Starmer especially, is that if they turn the debate onto Braverman Sunak will just pile into Starmer as a human rights lawyer opposing action to stop the channel crossings which will not play well in red wall seats

    I am not suggesting Braverman's appointment was correct but pointing out the raw politics in this
    I live in the Red Wall. I don't know anyone else who knows who Braverman is.
    Nor do I know people obsessed with Channel crossings either.
    It's all rent, energy, food and how the heck to pay for it.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Striking a deal with France sounds like a remoaner woke talk.
    Short of taking control of the French north coast ourselves, or going on chevauchée again, we don't really have much of a choice.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303

    kle4 said:

    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?

    Williamson has gone in and not come out
    You know, if he has locked Williamson in an oubliette I might just be willing to forgive him the rest.

    I'll still stand as an independent in South Staffs just to piss everyone off, but it would be a big, big move.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Fresh from my Truss winnings I’m going to invest some of them on the Sunak out before the GE markets.

    If there is another contest, Boris is will definitely win. He will find that prospect utterly irresistible. So unless his career is finished by the committee, it’s not a bad shout. He has form.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,144

    kle4 said:

    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?

    Williamson has gone in and not come out
    Is he tomorrow's Prime Minister, then?
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So far I’ve not seen a single Scot given a roll.

    Okay, there are only six of them, but c’mon, one or two are not as useless as some of the English MPs given government jobs. Honourable mention: Lamont. (Borderline sentient being: Mundell. Four cro-magnons.)

    Gove was born and raised in Scotland and is the new Levelling up Secretary, Ben Wallace was an MSP and is Defence Secretary again.
    It's the people who were actually elected by Scottish constituencies that we are concerned with. Mr Wallace isn't one now. It's about as relevant as winning a Blue Peter badge from 1968.
    In fairness the original opening did not specify consitutuencies, but 'a single Scot given a roll'.
    did somebody say scotch roll?

    https://scottishscran.com/scottish-morning-rolls-recipe/
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    kle4 said:

    Ok seriously, have they just forgotten about Transport or did I miss it?

    Williamson has gone in and not come out
    Just a wind up. Send for Hancock!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    edited October 2022
    Incidentally France is suspending Schengen from November 1st, supposedly until next summer.

    https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen-borders-and-visa/schengen-area/temporary-reintroduction-border-control_en
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333

    nico679 said:

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Not sure no 10 would be willing to accept 10-20k a year . There are some good suggestions there but no 3 would be politically very hard for Macron to sell to the French public .
    At the moment, we are taking up to 60k a year. The optics are also terrible.

    Some of them are legit, most are economic migrants exploiting a loophole with people traffickers.

    My estimate is that approx 1/6th to 1/4th are legit (max) and we should work to take our share of those, whilst working with France to boot out the rest.

    We both help each other secure each other's borders, in other words.
    Both help to secure our borders?

    Are France worried about a lot of men of Kent making their way over to Boulogne?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    Just seen a clip of Truss leaving Downing Street. She got into a car, but it looks like her daughters had to catch the Tube?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    By the way - pile on Kemi for next leader again:

    1. Stays in post but with the equalities brief giving her more of a platform for the anti-woke red meat.

    2. International Trade is a great little springboard - look at all the positive press it gave to Liz Truss (albeit I appreciate not necessarily someone to emulate!)

    3. Suella likely to come unstuck at Home Office one way or another.

    4. Kemi has a safe seat - should keep hold of it even if there is a rout.

    If the India trade deal happens it would certainly help boost her reputation.
    I very much doubt that will happen.

    Modi can only sell it and boost his popularity at home by saying he's stuck it to their former colonial masters, hence all the demands for huge migration concessions and the shit about the Koh-i-Noor diamond.

    Surprised he hasn't asked for Shashi Tharoor's propaganda to be compulsory reading in schools, as well.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 784
    Sunak will be a nice change because he won't be either 1) a compulsive liar; or 2) aiming to win the 'destroy your economy in 30 days' competition.

    His political instinct is otherwise untested, but my suspicion is he will struggle to deliver a decisive change in direction on policy beyond Hunt's correction of Truss's economic mess.

    And in his defence, it'll be difficult to do so in two years with no money to spend.
  • Options
    Heh.


  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    This site is very good at convincing itself that its consensus is (or will be) the national consensus.

    I think Sunak will be quite warmly welcomed and, based on the fundamentals around the number of seats Starmer needs to win, could win the next election or certainly deny Labour a majority and be ready to pick up the pieces of a minority Labour Government.

    Not an outcome I want, because 14 years is already too much for any party, but one I think is more likely than many price in.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Heh.


    Slick. Dancing on the (debt) ceiling.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,330
    The Braverman appointment placates the Right and shows that Sunak really intends to tackle unwanted migration

    That is infuriates a bunch of liberals, who fear and loathe the Tories anyway, is a useful byproduct

    It is also a sign that Sunak is weak. Because he is. He has not won an election. He has not even won a membership vote or an official vote of MPs

    He needs to advance with caution. I can see him leading the Tories to respectable defeat, which is an improvement on total annihilation under Truss

    Right. That’s my beef jerky and Pepsi break over, here in the Arizona desert. Onwards to Phoenix!
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347

    The deal that needs to be struck with France:

    (1) Enhanced French security on channel coast
    (2) Agree British/French drone patrols/ intelligence sharing
    (3) Agree that any boats intercepted by UK can get towed straight back to Calais
    (4) Agree a joint British/French asylum processing centre in the Pas-de-Calais
    (5) Agree we will take 10-20k vulnerable migrants pa (only those that haven't been trafficked/are legit)
    (6) UK/France jointly help deport the rest back to wherever they came from, or anywhere frankly
    (7) UK/France both help jointly navy patrol the Med & tackle the problem at MENA source
    (8) Bung 'em some money...

    Tories would jump up 5% in the polls within weeks.

    Striking a deal with France sounds like a remoaner woke talk.
    Short of taking control of the French north coast ourselves, or going on chevauchée again, we don't really have much of a choice.
    Tell me more about the “invade France” option. It appeals to me.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    Jonathan said:

    Fresh from my Truss winnings I’m going to invest some of them on the Sunak out before the GE markets.

    If there is another contest, Boris is will definitely win. He will find that prospect utterly irresistible. So unless his career is finished by the committee, it’s not a bad shout. He has form.
    I agree that if another contest does arise, the existing parliamentary party (in utter desperation) will probably roll the dice on him once more.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    We seem to be putting a huge amount of stock in who is Home Secretary or at Defra or whatever
    Did Merlyn Rees or Kenneth Baker swing a lot of votes in 79 or 92?

    Well exactly. Ninety percent of people probably neither know nor care who the Home Secretary is, let alone what they do.

    PM and Chancellor, that's probably about it for general knowledge. Unless there's a "character" in the position as when Johnson was FS, for example. Or they've hung around for so long they're part of the furniture.

    When was the last time a party lost an election because the HS was a bit shit. Or a bit divisive? Answers on a postcard to a PO Box in Rwanda.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,667

    What are the odds on Gillian Keegan being next Tory leader?

    You're expecting her to do for school meals what Thatcher did for milk ?
  • Options

    Just seen a clip of Truss leaving Downing Street. She got into a car, but it looks like her daughters had to catch the Tube?

    The car was taking her to the Palace to resign to Charles so no doubt her children went home
  • Options
    I have to admit for the first time in weeks I am looking forward to PMQ's tomorrow
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MikeL said:

    The public are not remotely interested in details like how Braverman breached security.

    Walk down the street now and ask 100 people why Braverman was sacked. Literally nobody would have the faintest idea. 60% of people wouldn't have even heard of her. 80% wouldn't know she had been sacked.

    Everyone is far too geeky on here.

    Good thinking Robin. Let's all keep quiet about it......
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,311

    We seem to be putting a huge amount of stock in who is Home Secretary or at Defra or whatever
    Did Merlyn Rees or Kenneth Baker swing a lot of votes in 79 or 92?

    The thing that makes a difference are unity, a sense of purpose, party management, and being able to advocate for the government in public. That and not causing a massive crisis in your department.

    These are all reasons why having a good [shadow] Cabinet team are important, and so the details can matter.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    biggles said:

    This site is very good at convincing itself that its consensus is (or will be) the national consensus.

    I think Sunak will be quite warmly welcomed and, based on the fundamentals around the number of seats Starmer needs to win, could win the next election or certainly deny Labour a majority and be ready to pick up the pieces of a minority Labour Government.

    Not an outcome I want, because 14 years is already too much for any party, but one I think is more likely than many price in.

    People who follow politics closely also tend to overestimate how much people care about cabinet appointments. Most voters have never heard of Suella Braverman.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Suella_Braverman?content=all
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,997

    The cabinet does make me realise though - crikey, do they need a bit of time to recharge and restock in opposition. The lack of talent on display here is pretty telling.

    I will give them Hunt, Gove, Wallace, Badenoch and Penny. Beyond that, there’s nobody of any great skill and/or substance.

    That doesn’t just apply to the Cabinet. It applies to the whole parliamentary party.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,009



    Not sure no 10 would be willing to accept 10-20k a year . There are some good suggestions there but no 3 would be politically very hard for Macron to sell to the French public .

    2 is bollocks as well because UAS that can operate in civvie controlled airspace (like that above the Channel) are very expensive. MQ-9B/Protector RG.1 = £63m each and the tories delayed the delivery of the British ones by two years to save money.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,144

    We seem to be putting a huge amount of stock in who is Home Secretary or at Defra or whatever
    Did Merlyn Rees or Kenneth Baker swing a lot of votes in 79 or 92?

    Well exactly. Ninety percent of people probably neither know nor care who the Home Secretary is, let alone what they do.

    PM and Chancellor, that's probably about it for general knowledge. Unless there's a "character" in the position as when Johnson was FS, for example. Or they've hung around for so long they're part of the furniture.

    When was the last time a party lost an election because the HS was a bit shit. Or a bit divisive? Answers on a postcard to a PO Box in Rwanda.
    It's not about the HS per se. It is about the ability to portray Sunak's government as the same old corrupt, self serving Tories as we had under Truss and Johnson. It is a simple line to repeat and I expect Labour to do so. Braverman provides an easy example to make if required.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    When I was in France a few weeks ago they were virtually running Braverman's boast about sending asylum seekers to Rwanda
    on a loup. Do you really think our international reputation is of so little importance it's worth losing it as long as we piss of Guardian reading lefties?
    Why were they running the story on a wolf? Was it on French Fox News?
    Forgive my spelling!
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    The Braverman appointment placates the Right and shows that Sunak really intends to tackle unwanted migration

    That is infuriates a bunch of liberals, who fear and loathe the Tories anyway, is a useful byproduct

    It is also a sign that Sunak is weak. Because he is. He has not won an election. He has not even won a membership vote or an official vote of MPs

    He needs to advance with caution. I can see him leading the Tories to respectable defeat, which is an improvement on total annihilation under Truss

    Right. That’s my beef jerky and Pepsi break over, here in the Arizona desert. Onwards to Phoenix!

    I think, charitably, he was trying to avoid the Trussian “sweep into office like a bull in a China shop” feeling. He’s kept most senior people in their roles (or reappointed them), the changes have largely been at the junior end.

    I completely understand the Braverman appointment, I just don’t think at the end of the day it is smart politics because it becomes the story - and the story should be “stability, constancy, unity”. If he needed to bring her back to cabinet as a campaign pledge, she should have been given a more junior role (bashing the BBC at Culture or something) and then depending on events she could have worked her way back up.

  • Options
    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory fresh start was Mordaunt. This is continuity.

    With respect one unwise appointment in Braverman does not make this continuity from Truss and Johnson

    I agree with Sky that he wants to hit the ground running, and in his confirmation of Hunt as COE you will see next Monday a complete rejection of all things Truss
    Only one unwise appointment?
    To be honest I am content with most of the appointments so far
    Braverman has your full support. Do you share her dreams?
    You clearly have not read my comments and please do not put words into my mouth

    Braverman is the wrong appointment but the wider picture is Johnson and Truss have gone and in Sunak and Hunt we have the best chance to reassure the markets
    They are in fact, already reassured. Look at Gilts and the pound.
    Yes I am aware of how positively the markets have reacted even to some building societies reducing their mortgage rates

    On Braverman her hard line stance on the channel crossings will go down well in the red wall seats, but not sure how the idea we need more immigration to aid growth sits with her stance
    It’s not happening now . Sunak and the witch are on the same page .
    A stirring conviction politician, Braverman is.

    "I have a dream that one day in this great nation of ours every person who tries to get in without a visa will be deported immediately to Rwanda."

    I'm very disappointed to see her back. 2 possibilities, neither good. Sunak wants to send out some anti-migrant, strong borders, hard brexit vibe to try and appeal to that part of Johnson's 2019 voting coalition. Or she is such a power in the party that he felt he had to do this.
    Yes, but the reason "Rwanda" is persisted with as a policy and gets traction is because it annoys and infuriates all the people it's supposed to on the Left, who fall for it every time.

    Not a single person has been deported to Rwanda. Meanwhile, landings here might double to 60,000 by the end of the year.
    When I was in France a few weeks ago they were virtually running Braverman's boast about sending asylum seekers to Rwanda
    on a loup. Do you really think our international reputation is of so little importance it's worth losing it as long as we piss of Guardian reading lefties?
    Why were they running the story on a wolf? Was it on French Fox News?
    Forgive my spelling!
    You didn't respond to the Danes I notice

    Denmark to Send Immigrants to Rwanda

    September 12, 2022

    Denmark to Send Immigrants to Rwanda. Credit: Erich Jacobi/ Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 4.0
    Rather than allowing immigrants to live in Denmark, they will be sent to Rwanda, where Danish officials will manage their asylum cases.

    In a joint declaration on bilateral cooperation, the two nations stated that they were “exploring the establishment of a program through which spontaneous asylum seekers arriving in Denmark may be transferred to Rwanda for consideration of their asylum applications.”

    The statement added that it would also offer “the option of settling in Rwanda.” The declaration was made public on the website of the Danish Ministry of Immigration and Integration.

    The fact that Rwanda now explicitly indicates that it wishes to receive Danish asylum seekers takes the collaboration agreement beyond the two nations’ prior announcement of a partnership arrangement in 2021.

    Denmark‘s intention to construct an offshore or “third-country” refugee center was discussed in earlier statements in more general terms.

    Kaare Dybvad Bek and Flemming Miller Mortensen, Danish foreign development and immigration ministers, are currently in Rwanda, where they conducted a news conference on Friday to announce the new deal.

    The ruling Social Democratic Party has long expressed a desire to establish an offshore asylum center. The Danish Foreign Ministry has declared the opening of a local office in Kigali, where two of the ministry’s diplomats would be stationed beginning later this year.

  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Transport and Chief Secretary to the Treasury appear to be the two main roles still outstanding.
This discussion has been closed.