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Polling matters – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    We ain’t seen nothing yet!

    Censure by the Privileges Committee, a massive recall petition, and then either he slinks away, or goes down in a historic by-election defeat and is expunged from our politics for ever more.

    I actually think this scenario is in the Conservatives’ best interests, as well as catharsis for our long-suffering country, since having Johnson so brutally dispatched from our politics will help Sunak pull off their usual trick of projecting his administration as “new” and blaming our ills on the disreputable scoundrels who governed before….
    Personal and professional standards should matter. Yes, even if you are funny and good at winning elections.

    His fans see it as outrageous to be held to standards at all, but those are the rules of being an MP, in theory.

    I still think he might wriggle out with a sanction under the trigger threshold.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    .

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    Just a formality.
    To reflect on their achievements?
    They've got a guaranteed entry in any future edition of The Book of Heroic Failures.

    That's an achievement most of us would enjoy.
    Heroic ?
    Stephen Pile's 1979 epic read...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Heroic_Failures
    I get the reference, and I'd agree Liz qualifies.
    But the rest of the no-marks ?
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    algarkirk said:

    Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.

    In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.

    Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.

    Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.

    Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.

    If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them

    But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.

    No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.

    They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.


    If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
    I’m centre right but not a Tory. I engage with politicians in my own terms. (Although even if I was it doesn’t make me unable to be objective - as @Casino_Royale has proved time and again).

    I disagree with your assessment. The polling move was so fast and violent that it strikes me as shallow. A lot of it was Tories moving to don’t know although there was an unusual level of direct Tory to Labour switching which I would interpret as a desire to kick the Tories where it hurts.

    My guess is as things stabilise then politics will normalise and people will return to the Tories. That doesn’t mean the Tories will win - I think that’s unlikely - but in my view the polls are more likely to return to a sustainable 10-15% Labour lead and then close further as the election sharpens the focus. Overall result between Labour largest party and small majority, but most likely a Labour government from mid 2024 onwards.

    Of course this assumes that the Tories manage to deliver a drama free couple of years of vaguely competent government



    My view is that current Labour leads are unsustainable simply became not that large a proportion of the electorate are left-wing.

    I reckon we'll be back to 40%:30% - which was HY's benchmark of a truly bad result, before things got a whole lot worse - pretty quickly. Thereafter, we'll have to see - but don't Labour need a 7% lead for a workable majority, if I'm remembering right?
    I would take a truly bad result now, rather than the extinction level event Truss was heading for
    The peak of Truss's new leader bouncelet was about C33 L42 on the Wikipedia graph. Right now, the same wiggly line is at C20 L55. So a bounce back the undoes the Truss effect is big, but not crazy (Major managed C+10 L-10).

    The bigger challenge for the Conservatives is the gentle but steady drift from blue to red that's been happening since summer 2021. It's only a point per month, you have to step back to see it in all the noise, but Team Sunak needs to find a way of stopping it. (If, as I suspect, it's increasing numbers of people running out of money before they run out of month, that might be tricky.)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    To say goodbye and apologise for ruining their careers?
    Cabinet Ministers like JRM probably need to be walked through the redundancy payment rules. People like Hunt and Wallace can skip that bit and wait next door for Sunak.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    I can't recall who but someone pointed out that included SNP seats?

    I'd say Sunak/TCTC go Tory and Starmer loses 35 seats to SNP on current numbers.

    So that points to something like 240 Tory seats and 350 Labour, or similar, atm.
    It’s not a voting intention poll though. It’s a two way popularity survey. Yes, I totally accept that leader ratings are incredibly important, as OGH rightly emphasises from time to time, but they’re not the be all and end all. A binary MRP poll like this doesn’t factor extrinsic factors like other parties (esp the SNP but also the LDs), personal vote of local MP, popularity of governing party etc has very limited predictive value.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Just checking, is Brexit done yet?



    Brexit's going to take a generation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    Just a formality.
    To reflect on their achievements?
    They've got a guaranteed entry in any future edition of The Book of Heroic Failures.

    That's an achievement most of us would enjoy.
    Heroic ?
    Stephen Pile's 1979 epic read...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Heroic_Failures
    I get the reference, and I'd agree Liz qualifies.
    But the rest of the no-marks ?
    An entry under The Least Successful Government would cover them all!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    I still have faith in my Oct Tory polling lead bet coming in to recover my losses on my Sept Tory polling lead. I’m sure we’ll see one this weekend.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    Sunak doing remarkably well in the Midlands. For example, Cannock Chase: Sunak +5%. Nuneaton: Sunak +2%.
    I think that's a decent map for Sunak to start from, I assume Truss vs Starmer would have been all red bar perhaps some grey over lincolnshire and essex.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,402
    Victoria Atkins sent out to bat this morning.

    Must be making a comeback to government.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Tory polling deficit to the SNP in last 5 polls (proper Scottish polls):

    26 points
    30 points
    33 points
    31 points
    29 points

    (Tory deficit to the SNP at UK GE 2019 = 19.9%)

    When was the last of those polls?
    7-11 October, Panelbase/Alba Party

    (Personally, I don’t think polls commissioned by political parties or organisations like Scotland in Union should be listed. In Sweden, we don’t even list polls where there is no client, which would omit eg Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and Omnisis. Polls by political parties are so universally ignored that I cannot recall ever seeing one published or listed.)
    Thanks. That'd be difficult to implement in the UK, given the nature of the DT and DM ... anyway, we will have to see what the Sunak effect is - and not least in the interactions between the parties. Especially after the winter.
    Agreed.

    The winter is going to be absolutely dire, but the next UK GE is almost certainly two years away. Sunak is 99% certain to lead the Tories at that GE. Douglas Ross is 80% certain not to be leading the Scottish Tories at that GE. I for one will not be paying too much attention to opinion polling in the UK until April/May. And if we’re honest, they will not be very useful until spring 2024.

    My gut feeling is that the economic basics are going to remain very poor for approximately a decade. That slow realisation is going to hinder the Tories. Obviously.

    I think Sunak will improve with experience and that by autumn 2024 Starmer will be struggling.

    I look forward to a professional but cool relationship between the FMs and the PM. Which is an immense improvement on the Truss and Oaf buffoonery.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    Great news!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2022
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    We ain’t seen nothing yet!

    Censure by the Privileges Committee, a massive recall petition, and then either he slinks away, or goes down in a historic by-election defeat and is expunged from our politics for ever more.

    There is a myth developing among the grassroots that Rishi deposed BoZo to seize the crown for himself.

    BoZo has done nothing to dispel it thus far.

    Bit like Trump and Pence.
    It’s worse than that, in that he did the same to Liz Truss.

    Some of us speculated over the summer, that the hyperbolic language coming from the Sunak camp gave the suggestion that they would not want to work with Truss, and so it came to pass. What we didn’t expect, was the speed at which the Sunak supporters, in the Parliamentary party and the media, sabotaged the Truss government, in order to steal that crown for themselves. The average member will be furious today, at the way these events played out.
    The "sabotage" of Truss was self-inflicted in the mini budget. Sunak had predicted repeatedly in their debates what would happen to such policies, as he had in the Mais lecture. Saying "I told you so" is not sabotage.
    There's a couple of problems with the sabotage theory re Truss.

    By the end more MPs backed her than Sunak. Sunak himself I dont recall saying a word since her victory. She was not brought down because Sunak supporters refused to work with her, she was brought down because her actions brought about economic turmoil and a plummeting poll rating. That meant even her own side abandoned her.

    Sunak and co may have intended to sabotage her, but they never got the chance!

    Now, some will manufacture a conspiracy about it, I know someone who thinks Sunak orchestrated everything, but the simple thing is had Truss not been lazy but properly prepared her party and government for her plans, rather than going out before it was worked out, she would still be there today.

    As for the members, toughen up. MPs make a lot of mistakes but they are the ones who have to make actual decisions, their views are more valid and they cannot run everything by members.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    Yeah, but if you want to piss on their chips, remind them Charles still has the Koh-i-Noor...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Scott_xP said:

    Last outing for the Jenga lectern.

    Apparently each PM gets their own different version.

    Really? I didn’t know that. Seems a terrible waste.

    I hope the jenga lectern is rehomed to a museum where for decades to come parents will have to explain to their kids who Liz Truss was….
    I know it's only a couple of quid in the grand scheme of things but there seems to be an endless stream of areas where the country could save bank.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    I was wondering the same.
    She is still PM until she sees the King.
    The last time she met a monarch on a transfer of power there were - subsequent events.

    She wouldn't though.

    Would she?

    She couldn't...

    Or do we now prepare for Menai Bridge as well?

    (Speaking of which, the Menai Bridge is in such a dangerous state it has been shut:

    Menai Bridge: Immediate closure for Anglesey crossing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63348053 )
    We will see if Charles shakes hands with her :wink:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,402

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    20 GW of CCGT and a bit of coal and OCGT on the bars this morning. Wind at around half capacity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,029
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    I was wondering the same.
    Thank them all for their service during her brief time in office ?
    I guess but if KCIII had been available yesterday afternoon this could all have been done then.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited October 2022
    Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    When Rishi meets Charles, he should pat him on the head and give him a tenner.

    “Indian humour”
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Heathener said:

    algarkirk said:

    Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.

    In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.

    Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.

    Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.

    Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.

    If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them

    But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.

    No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.

    They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.


    If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
    I’m centre right but not a Tory. I engage with politicians in my own terms. (Although even if I was it doesn’t make me unable to be objective - as @Casino_Royale has proved time and again).

    I disagree with your assessment. The polling move was so fast and violent that it strikes me as shallow. A lot of it was Tories moving to don’t know although there was an unusual level of direct Tory to Labour switching which I would interpret as a desire to kick the Tories where it hurts.

    My guess is as things stabilise then politics will normalise and people will return to the Tories. That doesn’t mean the Tories will win - I think that’s unlikely - but in my view the polls are more likely to return to a sustainable 10-15% Labour lead and then close further as the election sharpens the focus. Overall result between Labour largest party and small majority, but most likely a Labour government from mid 2024 onwards.

    Of course this assumes that the Tories manage to deliver a drama free couple of years of vaguely competent government



    My view is that current Labour leads are unsustainable simply became not that large a proportion of the electorate are left-wing.
    If we look at the final YouGov before Truss took over that had a Labour lead of 43-28, and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was Tory: Labour:Don't Know/Refused/Won't Vote of 48:9:31.

    The latest YouGov, likely the last under Truss, has a Labour lead of 56-19 and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was 34:14:36.

    It will be interesting to see how those change. It's possible that the voters who have taken the larger step of saying they'll vote Labour will be harder to win back, more committed to their change of view, or they might rapidly become disenchanted with something Starmer says.

    I think I will try and keep an eye on this breakdown. I think it's more important than the headline poll numbers.
  • Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    Yeah, but if you want to piss on their chips, remind them Charles still has the Koh-i-Noor...
    Or you can remind Charles that India chose to become a republic in 1950....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    As a pedant, I feel compelled to point out that had he not turned over the Crown’s assets to the nation in exchange for the sovereign grant, that would not be true. The theoretical wealth of our Crown remains quite staggering compared to people and not countries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ping said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Times of India made a cheeky little comment stating that the Times estimate that the combined wealth of the Sunaks is about double that of King Charles and Queen Camilla.

    Rishi Sunak, Akshata Murty's combined fortune double of King Charles III
    The Times of London estimated the couple's combined wealth was worth double that of King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla. They are also among the 250 wealthiest British people or families. Now, Sunak will be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy No. 10 Downing St. The two are together worth more than $800 million. By comparison, King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla has an estimated combined wealth of $340-$395 million.


    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/800-million-rishi-sunak-and-wifes-combined-wealth-double-of-king-charles-iii/articleshow/95075109.cms

    When Rishi meets Charles, he should pat him on the head and give him a tenner.

    “Indian humour”
    He prefers to accept cash in an unmarked briefcase.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    I was wondering the same.
    She is still PM until she sees the King.
    The last time she met a monarch on a transfer of power there were - subsequent events.

    She wouldn't though.

    Would she?

    She couldn't...

    Or do we now prepare for Menai Bridge as well?

    (Speaking of which, the Menai Bridge is in such a dangerous state it has been shut:

    Menai Bridge: Immediate closure for Anglesey crossing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63348053 )
    We will see if Charles shakes hands with her :wink:
    Dear oh dear.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    Sunak doing remarkably well in the Midlands. For example, Cannock Chase: Sunak +5%. Nuneaton: Sunak +2%.
    I think that's a decent map for Sunak to start from, I assume Truss vs Starmer would have been all red bar perhaps some grey over lincolnshire and essex.
    Baxtering recent polling (!) has Labour taking South Holland and the Deepings, where no-one ever votes Labour at all. This was Tories winning Bootle territory in reverse and isn't going to happen. (Ie, Tories on ZERO seats

    So current polling, with extraordinary rapidity, says something which bears scant relation to any sort of real assessment.

    But SFAICS a few million people in the last and next few days will mentally shift Tories from 'Never and over my dead body' to 'Wait and see'. At least there is a slight chance that Labour would have to find a way of winning next time, rather than just waiting for the Tories to default and winning by a walkover.

    And that, affirmatively winning, is what Labour will find hard, as is obvious from their deafening silence on real solutions.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    As an aside, although I appreciate there was far more of a run up last time, I am glad that we are not getting cabinet positions briefed out far in advance.

    It seemed wrong somehow that we knew most of Liz’s senior cabinet before she became PM.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    They're only the 'rules' if you're a stupid git.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    Sunak doing remarkably well in the Midlands. For example, Cannock Chase: Sunak +5%. Nuneaton: Sunak +2%.
    I think that's a decent map for Sunak to start from, I assume Truss vs Starmer would have been all red bar perhaps some grey over lincolnshire and essex.
    The grey on that map is interesting. The biggest expanses are red wallish and white van southern analogues (North Notts and Lincs, Essex for instance), but also a few places that would not be regarded as red
    wall.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Heathener said:

    algarkirk said:

    Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.

    In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.

    Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.

    Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.

    Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.

    If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them

    But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.

    No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.

    They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.


    If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
    I’m centre right but not a Tory. I engage with politicians in my own terms. (Although even if I was it doesn’t make me unable to be objective - as @Casino_Royale has proved time and again).

    I disagree with your assessment. The polling move was so fast and violent that it strikes me as shallow. A lot of it was Tories moving to don’t know although there was an unusual level of direct Tory to Labour switching which I would interpret as a desire to kick the Tories where it hurts.

    My guess is as things stabilise then politics will normalise and people will return to the Tories. That doesn’t mean the Tories will win - I think that’s unlikely - but in my view the polls are more likely to return to a sustainable 10-15% Labour lead and then close further as the election sharpens the focus. Overall result between Labour largest party and small majority, but most likely a Labour government from mid 2024 onwards.

    Of course this assumes that the Tories manage to deliver a drama free couple of years of vaguely competent government



    My view is that current Labour leads are unsustainable simply became not that large a proportion of the electorate are left-wing.
    If we look at the final YouGov before Truss took over that had a Labour lead of 43-28, and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was Tory: Labour:Don't Know/Refused/Won't Vote of 48:9:31.

    The latest YouGov, likely the last under Truss, has a Labour lead of 56-19 and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was 34:14:36.

    It will be interesting to see how those change. It's possible that the voters who have taken the larger step of saying they'll vote Labour will be harder to win back, more committed to their change of view, or they might rapidly become disenchanted with something Starmer says.

    I think I will try and keep an eye on this breakdown. I think it's more important than the headline poll numbers.
    Those “don’t know” numbers are fascinating. Thanks, I’ve been wondering about that but I’ve been too lazy to search.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    Sunak doing remarkably well in the Midlands. For example, Cannock Chase: Sunak +5%. Nuneaton: Sunak +2%.
    I think that's a decent map for Sunak to start from, I assume Truss vs Starmer would have been all red bar perhaps some grey over lincolnshire and essex.
    Baxtering recent polling (!) has Labour taking South Holland and the Deepings, where no-one ever votes Labour at all. This was Tories winning Bootle territory in reverse and isn't going to happen. (Ie, Tories on ZERO seats

    So current polling, with extraordinary rapidity, says something which bears scant relation to any sort of real assessment.

    But SFAICS a few million people in the last and next few days will mentally shift Tories from 'Never and over my dead body' to 'Wait and see'. At least there is a slight chance that Labour would have to find a way of winning next time, rather than just waiting for the Tories to default and winning by a walkover.

    And that, affirmatively winning, is what Labour will find hard, as is obvious from their deafening silence on real solutions.

    The change from Boris/Truss to Sunak could, again, feel like a "thank fuck for that" change of Government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Those types are idiots who are counterproductive, since it just makes people think it's all hopeless and pointless if everything done counts as nothing. Your Gretas who dismiss everything as blah are wrong but at least in mixing with the powerful their whining focuses them a bit.

    The most effective climate activists I know are extremely dogged and interrogate deeply and skeptically any claimed successes, they can be harsh, and constantly demand more...but they do pay on the head every now and then and acknowledge positive actions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    The Thames estuary and around the Wash stand out as areas where I was surprised at the result. Would have expected them to be more firmly in the Tory column.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    Just a formality.
    To reflect on their achievements?
    They've got a guaranteed entry in any future edition of The Book of Heroic Failures.

    That's an achievement most of us would enjoy.
    Heroic ?
    Stephen Pile's 1979 epic read...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Heroic_Failures
    I get the reference, and I'd agree Liz qualifies.
    But the rest of the no-marks ?
    Only the leader of the cult qualifies for an entry, but KK might get an honourable mention. :smiley:
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    Heathener said:

    algarkirk said:

    Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.

    In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.

    Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.

    Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.

    Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.

    If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them

    But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.

    No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.

    They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.


    If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
    I’m centre right but not a Tory. I engage with politicians in my own terms. (Although even if I was it doesn’t make me unable to be objective - as @Casino_Royale has proved time and again).

    I disagree with your assessment. The polling move was so fast and violent that it strikes me as shallow. A lot of it was Tories moving to don’t know although there was an unusual level of direct Tory to Labour switching which I would interpret as a desire to kick the Tories where it hurts.

    My guess is as things stabilise then politics will normalise and people will return to the Tories. That doesn’t mean the Tories will win - I think that’s unlikely - but in my view the polls are more likely to return to a sustainable 10-15% Labour lead and then close further as the election sharpens the focus. Overall result between Labour largest party and small majority, but most likely a Labour government from mid 2024 onwards.

    Of course this assumes that the Tories manage to deliver a drama free couple of years of vaguely competent government



    My view is that current Labour leads are unsustainable simply became not that large a proportion of the electorate are left-wing.
    If we look at the final YouGov before Truss took over that had a Labour lead of 43-28, and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was Tory: Labour:Don't Know/Refused/Won't Vote of 48:9:31.

    The latest YouGov, likely the last under Truss, has a Labour lead of 56-19 and the breakdown of the Tory 2019 vote was 34:14:36.

    It will be interesting to see how those change. It's possible that the voters who have taken the larger step of saying they'll vote Labour will be harder to win back, more committed to their change of view, or they might rapidly become disenchanted with something Starmer says.

    I think I will try and keep an eye on this breakdown. I think it's more important than the headline poll numbers.
    Exactly right. Since Patersongate I would have consistently replied 'Labour' to a GE pollster (for the first time in nearly 50 years). At this moment I would suspend judgement as there is just a faint chance of a Tory government that is One Nation, reasonably honourable, sane, long term solution seeking and holding the ghastly party's MPs together.

    This could all be shattered in a week of course.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    As an aside, although I appreciate there was far more of a run up last time, I am glad that we are not getting cabinet positions briefed out far in advance.

    It seemed wrong somehow that we knew most of Liz’s senior cabinet before she became PM.

    Well, we knew she was going to win so got a bit bold with the leaks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, zealots are bloody tedious to deal with.
  • PB Brains Trust!

    Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.

    I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.

    Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    The Thames estuary and around the Wash stand out as areas where I was surprised at the result. Would have expected them to be more firmly in the Tory column.
    Mortgages + house prices.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    Talking of attention seekers:

    https://twitter.com/gowdavy/status/1583496116389019651?s=46&t=VZBy-xCeCpeFQmFH2RE2Fg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    algarkirk said:

    Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.

    In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.

    Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.

    Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.

    Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.

    The biggest imponderable is whether the Party will unite behind him or continue its fractious ways.

    I'd have thought it would be unity, but Boris's ungracious withdrawal suggests maybe not. If he gets unity, then I think he can hope for a small defeat at the next election. Otherwise, it will be a shitshow.

    I rather like the odds of 2.4 a Labour Majority, but I wouldn't go big on it and I'd watch developments closely.
    The divisions over policy are too stark for unity to last. Desperation and an economic straitjacket might keep them in place for a bit is all
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is the point of Truss holding a cabinet meeting this morning?

    I was wondering the same.
    She is still PM until she sees the King.
    The last time she met a monarch on a transfer of power there were - subsequent events.

    She wouldn't though.

    Would she?

    She couldn't...

    Or do we now prepare for Menai Bridge as well?

    (Speaking of which, the Menai Bridge is in such a dangerous state it has been shut:

    Menai Bridge: Immediate closure for Anglesey crossing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63348053 )
    The closure of the old Menai Bridge is a worry as there is no other way of Anglesey when the Britannia Bridge closes as well as it does on occasions
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    The Thames estuary and around the Wash stand out as areas where I was surprised at the result. Would have expected them to be more firmly in the Tory column.
    Did you see how poorly Labour are doing in the West Midlands? Blank areas where you'd expect red.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Interesting polling.

    Sharp fall in China’s global standing as poll shows backing for Taiwan defence
    Survey finds pro-China sentiment has collapsed in many nations while positive opinion of US has rebounded
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/23/sharp-fall-in-chinas-global-standing-as-poll-shows-backing-for-taiwan-defence

    Hopefully, Xi's installation as (effectively) President for life might encourage him to take the long view on reacquiring Taiwan.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2022
    Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.

    Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The absolute state of the comments on order-order, Lol!

    Their ludicrosity has cheered me up no end. How the Tory headbangers are hurting this morning!

    It seems to have cornered the market in batshit-crazies.
    Guido has had to call out his own comment section several times in the past. Not sure hes a fan of all the fans.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Tory polling deficit to the SNP in last 5 polls (proper Scottish polls):

    26 points
    30 points
    33 points
    31 points
    29 points

    (Tory deficit to the SNP at UK GE 2019 = 19.9%)

    When was the last of those polls?
    7-11 October, Panelbase/Alba Party

    (Personally, I don’t think polls commissioned by political parties or organisations like Scotland in Union should be listed. In Sweden, we don’t even list polls where there is no client, which would omit eg Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and Omnisis. Polls by political parties are so universally ignored that I cannot recall ever seeing one published or listed.)
    Thanks. That'd be difficult to implement in the UK, given the nature of the DT and DM ... anyway, we will have to see what the Sunak effect is - and not least in the interactions between the parties. Especially after the winter.
    Agreed.

    The winter is going to be absolutely dire, but the next UK GE is almost certainly two years away. Sunak is 99% certain to lead the Tories at that GE. Douglas Ross is 80% certain not to be leading the Scottish Tories at that GE. I for one will not be paying too much attention to opinion polling in the UK until April/May. And if we’re honest, they will not be very useful until spring 2024.

    My gut feeling is that the economic basics are going to remain very poor for approximately a decade. That slow realisation is going to hinder the Tories. Obviously.

    I think Sunak will improve with experience and that by autumn 2024 Starmer will be struggling.

    I look forward to a professional but cool relationship between the FMs and the PM. Which is an immense improvement on the Truss and Oaf buffoonery.
    Do you agree with my hung parliament prediction?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited October 2022
    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    It has been interesting to see the reaction from red wall Conservatives.

    I hadn't fully appreciated their love for Boris and their sense of embittered rage at what has happened. For some reason, probably partly racist, they have it in for Rishi as the architect of Boris Johnson's downfall.

    Of course, the real architect of Boris Johnson's downfall was Boris Johnson. A deeply, painfully, flawed individual who has got his comeuppance.

    But I don't see the red wall warming to Rishi I'm afraid. They won't come back to vote for him.

    So I think Labour leads in the 20%+ range to start with, perhaps possibly a 15%. And then as things start to bite through the winter, Labour will regularly be back up to 25%+

    They are going to win a landslide. Nothing now will change it.

    Perhaps you clever folks can piece it together for me. But as far as I see, Rishi largely shores up the blue wall in the south and midlands, from both labour and the Lib Dems, with perhaps the loss of a handful of seats to the yellows in their traditional hunting grounds and the reds on the coast.

    Scotland stays SNP.

    And before we start, the boundary review tips what was a majority of 80 to 100-110.

    Now don’t get me wrong, it’s increasingly hard to see how Sunak wins a majority or is even largest party. But do we really think the map is set up for Starmer to win “a landslide”? How? I don’t think many of believe Labour will carry a 25 point poll lead on the day.

    I largely concur. I think Sunak is going to do well in the Home Counties - the Tory heartland. He is going to do poorly in Wales, Scotland and northern England. The big question marks are London, the Midlands and south western England. It will take 6-18 months before we get a good feel for his geographical appeal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Just checking, is Brexit done yet?



    Depends who is asking.

    Running out of road on the refusal policy, but no plan other than to keep on going.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_xP said:

    Roger said:

    I agree. Nothing like a ritual sacrifice to reset the clock. The complete humiliation of Johnson would do the country a power of good. It might even start to heal the wounds of Brexit.

    It will only fuel the myth of martyrdom
    Perhaps so, but if that's what his actions demand, so be it.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    They're only the 'rules' if you're a stupid git.
    You're awfully het up over a photo you have no idea of who it's meant to be.
    I have my stupid git rules, you your sanctimonious twat ones, chacun à son goût.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I think Sunak may be forced to spend more on defence whether he likes it or not.

    His selection of Foreign Secretary will be a very important choice.

    Been run by a bunch of turkeys in the past so any loser could be put in there now. Given just about everyone in the world hates UK and are laughing their socks off , why would it matter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    I think actually Sunak's instincts were right about covid.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited October 2022

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    Talking of attention seekers:

    https://twitter.com/gowdavy/status/1583496116389019651?s=46&t=VZBy-xCeCpeFQmFH2RE2Fg
    Poor old Liz, she never worked out the difference between attention and scrutiny.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Having only really been an adult under conservative led governments (my first GE vote was in 2010) - I remember quite clearly the argument at the time of austerity being "we need to sort government spending out and provide an economy that works for people, promotes growth, and keeps us safe when the next crisis hits". Well, 12 years down the line and people are still saying the economy is weak, that economic growth is poor and that the previous crisis broke government spending and the next one is just around the corner. So either the Cameron / Osborne project didn't actually do any of those things, or if it was on the pathway to doing that the successive May / Johnson / Truss governments stopped doing it. Either way - what is it that Tories really stand for or plan on doing if they are constantly saying the economy isn't good enough, but they're in control?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Liz Truss is currently 26 on Ladbrokes to be the next Conservative leader.

    I am not planning on backing that.

    Err yes. If you want to send me the money I'll give you 30-1. Not happening in a million years.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    Talking of attention seekers:

    https://twitter.com/gowdavy/status/1583496116389019651?s=46&t=VZBy-xCeCpeFQmFH2RE2Fg
    If only she had done 44 pictures... :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    Sunak doing remarkably well in the Midlands. For example, Cannock Chase: Sunak +5%. Nuneaton: Sunak +2%.
    Even 127 is a lot better than the thirty or so the party was heading for, under Truss.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    The Thames estuary and around the Wash stand out as areas where I was surprised at the result. Would have expected them to be more firmly in the Tory column.
    Did you see how poorly Labour are doing in the West Midlands? Blank areas where you'd expect red.
    I've become used to the Midlands being an area of strength for the post-Brexit Tory party, so it didn't particularly surprise me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    Talking of attention seekers:

    https://twitter.com/gowdavy/status/1583496116389019651?s=46&t=VZBy-xCeCpeFQmFH2RE2Fg
    That's brilliant!
  • pingping Posts: 3,724

    PB Brains Trust!

    Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.

    I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.

    Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?

    AIUI, smart home stuff is going to get a lot better over the next couple of years, with the “matter” standard. Might be an idea to wait…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Mr. kle4, zealots are bloody tedious to deal with.

    I know a bit of zeal can be a useful thing, but temperamentally I'm not well suited to such.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. grss, to be fair, the pandemic was a black swan of some significance.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    nico679 said:

    Gas prices at the pump falling again in the USA which might give the Dems some help in the run-up to the mid-terms.

    If they continue to fall at the current rate they could hit 8 month lows towards Election Day .

    It's probably too late to help the Democrats now. The wave in favour of the Republicans is too strong.

    What it (and the Roe v Wade decision) will do is limit the scale of their defeat.
  • Roger said:

    Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.

    Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.

    Sky were suggesting he is to be made an envoy to Ukraine but I have no idea if that is just lazy journalism
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
    We need to look at CFCs and the ozone hole. The Montreal Protocol was agreed in ?1988?, ten to fifteen years after the mechanism was first proposed, and only three years after the fist solid evidence was discovered by the British Antarctic Survey. It was amazingly fast work; industry adapted, and the problem has (mostly) been solved.

    Likewise, the vast majority of governments around the world agree that climate change is a problem. Most of those are working towards 'fixing' the problem; but it is a slow process, especially when technological solutions are not in place. But there is a will, and there is progress. It's just that the CFC issue was many orders of magnitude easier to solve.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    Devi Sridhar's a Scottish (or at least, Scottish based) version of Susan Michie with extra paranoia. Probably best ignored.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    We ain’t seen nothing yet!

    Censure by the Privileges Committee, a massive recall petition, and then either he slinks away, or goes down in a historic by-election defeat and is expunged from our politics for ever more.

    There is a myth developing among the grassroots that Rishi deposed BoZo to seize the crown for himself.

    BoZo has done nothing to dispel it thus far.

    Bit like Trump and Pence.
    It’s worse than that, in that he did the same to Liz Truss.

    Some of us speculated over the summer, that the hyperbolic language coming from the Sunak camp gave the suggestion that they would not want to work with Truss, and so it came to pass. What we didn’t expect, was the speed at which the Sunak supporters, in the Parliamentary party and the media, sabotaged the Truss government, in order to steal that crown for themselves. The average member will be furious today, at the way these events played out.
    The "sabotage" of Truss was self-inflicted in the mini budget. Sunak had predicted repeatedly in their debates what would happen to such policies, as he had in the Mais lecture. Saying "I told you so" is not sabotage.
    There was a constant stream of anonymous briefing from MPs, from the very start and rising to fever pitch near the end, not about the mini budget, but about everything else - casting even the most innocuous meetings like Liz speaking to the 22 as humungous cataclysms. You don't do Sunak's team any favours by this sort of specious half-remembering.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Tory polling deficit to the SNP in last 5 polls (proper Scottish polls):

    26 points
    30 points
    33 points
    31 points
    29 points

    (Tory deficit to the SNP at UK GE 2019 = 19.9%)

    When was the last of those polls?
    7-11 October, Panelbase/Alba Party

    (Personally, I don’t think polls commissioned by political parties or organisations like Scotland in Union should be listed. In Sweden, we don’t even list polls where there is no client, which would omit eg Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and Omnisis. Polls by political parties are so universally ignored that I cannot recall ever seeing one published or listed.)
    Thanks. That'd be difficult to implement in the UK, given the nature of the DT and DM ... anyway, we will have to see what the Sunak effect is - and not least in the interactions between the parties. Especially after the winter.
    Agreed.

    The winter is going to be absolutely dire, but the next UK GE is almost certainly two years away. Sunak is 99% certain to lead the Tories at that GE. Douglas Ross is 80% certain not to be leading the Scottish Tories at that GE. I for one will not be paying too much attention to opinion polling in the UK until April/May. And if we’re honest, they will not be very useful until spring 2024.

    My gut feeling is that the economic basics are going to remain very poor for approximately a decade. That slow realisation is going to hinder the Tories. Obviously.

    I think Sunak will improve with experience and that by autumn 2024 Starmer will be struggling.

    I look forward to a professional but cool relationship between the FMs and the PM. Which is an immense improvement on the Truss and Oaf buffoonery.
    Do you agree with my hung parliament prediction?
    If you are referring to this post - I'm 90% convinced the next election will deliver a hung parliament, which will probably mean a Lab/LD coalition - the my answer is: NOM at 5/4 is reasonable value 😉 (Nearly crossover incidentally.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    malcolmg said:

    I think Sunak may be forced to spend more on defence whether he likes it or not.

    His selection of Foreign Secretary will be a very important choice.

    Been run by a bunch of turkeys in the past so any loser could be put in there now. Given just about everyone in the world hates UK and are laughing their socks off , why would it matter.
    Well, it would matter because many nations are hated but they still must be interacted with, from your tinpot dictatorships to your superpower autocracies.

    The UK is a developed (if creaking) nation with a significant population and plenty of complex diplomatic relationships. Others may laugh at us, but they arent so foolish as to not deal with us seriously.

    Hence a good Foreign Secretary is a good thing, even if the role is not as important as it was now PMs act as chief diplomat.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,459
    edited October 2022
    148grss said:

    Having only really been an adult under conservative led governments (my first GE vote was in 2010) - I remember quite clearly the argument at the time of austerity being "we need to sort government spending out and provide an economy that works for people, promotes growth, and keeps us safe when the next crisis hits". Well, 12 years down the line and people are still saying the economy is weak, that economic growth is poor and that the previous crisis broke government spending and the next one is just around the corner. So either the Cameron / Osborne project didn't actually do any of those things, or if it was on the pathway to doing that the successive May / Johnson / Truss governments stopped doing it. Either way - what is it that Tories really stand for or plan on doing if they are constantly saying the economy isn't good enough, but they're in control?

    Well I went off you before finishing the first line. My thirties were the happiest time of my life. Fit enough to do stuff and enough money to do it. Enjoy.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.

    It drives me nuts when I hear claims like that, and all too often from politicians and campaigners who should know better. It is not just misleading it is simply lying. That the media lap this stuff up and rarely challenge such claims makes me even angrier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    We ain’t seen nothing yet!

    Censure by the Privileges Committee, a massive recall petition, and then either he slinks away, or goes down in a historic by-election defeat and is expunged from our politics for ever more.

    There is a myth developing among the grassroots that Rishi deposed BoZo to seize the crown for himself.

    BoZo has done nothing to dispel it thus far.

    Bit like Trump and Pence.
    It’s worse than that, in that he did the same to Liz Truss.

    Some of us speculated over the summer, that the hyperbolic language coming from the Sunak camp gave the suggestion that they would not want to work with Truss, and so it came to pass. What we didn’t expect, was the speed at which the Sunak supporters, in the Parliamentary party and the media, sabotaged the Truss government, in order to steal that crown for themselves. The average member will be furious today, at the way these events played out.
    The "sabotage" of Truss was self-inflicted in the mini budget. Sunak had predicted repeatedly in their debates what would happen to such policies, as he had in the Mais lecture. Saying "I told you so" is not sabotage.
    There was a constant stream of anonymous briefing from MPs, from the very start and rising to fever pitch near the end, not about the mini budget, but about everything else - casting even the most innocuous meetings like Liz speaking to the 22 as humungous cataclysms. You don't do Sunak's team any favours by this sort of specious half-remembering.
    None of that would have mattered, indeed it would have died away, had her plans not demolished the poll rating.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
    We need to look at CFCs and the ozone hole. The Montreal Protocol was agreed in ?1988?, ten to fifteen years after the mechanism was first proposed, and only three years after the fist solid evidence was discovered by the British Antarctic Survey. It was amazingly fast work; industry adapted, and the problem has (mostly) been solved.

    Likewise, the vast majority of governments around the world agree that climate change is a problem. Most of those are working towards 'fixing' the problem; but it is a slow process, especially when technological solutions are not in place. But there is a will, and there is progress. It's just that the CFC issue was many orders of magnitude easier to solve.
    On the Telegraph Ukraine podcast yesterday one of their economics correspondents reported from Germany on how industry has been adapting to high gas prices. A BMW car plant in Munich has cut its gas use in half, as has a major chemicals plant.

    These are huge strides forward and you wonder what might have been achieved over the last couple of decades if the same focus and determination had been applied then that is now coming to bear to deal with the gas crisis.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

    He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.

    He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demeaned-boris-johnson-was-begging-for-votes-says-senior-tory-7vf70jft2

    Good morning all.

    The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.

    He has been made to look a complete fool.

    For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
    Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.

    I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
    I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
    What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.


    ‘I name this bulk carrier..’
    Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM?
    Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'.
    Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.

    No?
    Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.

    Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
    They're only the 'rules' if you're a stupid git.
    You're awfully het up over a photo you have no idea of who it's meant to be.
    I have my stupid git rules, you your sanctimonious twat ones, chacun à son goût.
    (Sighs theatrically)

    You miss the point. You posted a picture of a woman in a swimsuit. Your comment was one about her weight - when the picture, although unflattering, did not show her to be particularly fat.

    There were plenty of other things you could have said with that picture (e.g. the way it seems to mirror her political hopes). But you concentrated on her looks - when your comment seems very incorrect.

    And deep in what passes for your soul, I think you know that - which is why you just throw stupid insults at me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.

    It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
    We need to look at CFCs and the ozone hole. The Montreal Protocol was agreed in ?1988?, ten to fifteen years after the mechanism was first proposed, and only three years after the fist solid evidence was discovered by the British Antarctic Survey. It was amazingly fast work; industry adapted, and the problem has (mostly) been solved.

    Likewise, the vast majority of governments around the world agree that climate change is a problem. Most of those are working towards 'fixing' the problem; but it is a slow process, especially when technological solutions are not in place. But there is a will, and there is progress. It's just that the CFC issue was many orders of magnitude easier to solve.
    On the Telegraph Ukraine podcast yesterday one of their economics correspondents reported from Germany on how industry has been adapting to high gas prices. A BMW car plant in Munich has cut its gas use in half, as has a major chemicals plant.

    These are huge strides forward and you wonder what might have been achieved over the last couple of decades if the same focus and determination had been applied then that is now coming to bear to deal with the gas crisis.
    I'd agree, *if* the BMW plant is managing to produce exactly the same amount despite the reduction in gas usage, and it can manage that reduction permanently (i.e. it is not doing things like drawing down on stocks, despite JIT). Ditto the chemical plant.

    But yes, there is lots industry and commerce can do. Heck, there's lots *we* can do as well. I just don't expect miracles.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,536

    It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.

    It’s always someone else’s fault with these people .
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.

    It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
    Mad and wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    Devi Sridhar's a Scottish (or at least, Scottish based) version of Susan Michie with extra paranoia. Probably best ignored.
    I'm certainly open to criticism of Sunaks covid positions, but her reference to his wealth makes it seem like a normal political attack which undermines the criticism by making it seem less academic and more partisan. Its adding in an unnecessary political guess about his motivations, when if he did badly that can stand as proof on it's own.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited October 2022
    148grss said:

    Having only really been an adult under conservative led governments (my first GE vote was in 2010) - I remember quite clearly the argument at the time of austerity being "we need to sort government spending out and provide an economy that works for people, promotes growth, and keeps us safe when the next crisis hits". Well, 12 years down the line and people are still saying the economy is weak, that economic growth is poor and that the previous crisis broke government spending and the next one is just around the corner. So either the Cameron / Osborne project didn't actually do any of those things, or if it was on the pathway to doing that the successive May / Johnson / Truss governments stopped doing it. Either way - what is it that Tories really stand for or plan on doing if they are constantly saying the economy isn't good enough, but they're in control?

    To be generous to Osborne and Cameron (and Clegg), they did manage to stabilise the British economy, whilst keeping unemployment low and reducing taxes for the low paid.

    The unforced error of Brexit plays a large role in what followed. We also cannot completely ignore external factors (the biggest being covid and the war in Ukraine).

    Though I very much take your point and am happy to say not everything the Tories have done has been right or successful, there was a plan there.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926
    ydoethur said:

    Really, they urgently need a new suspension bridge with a dual carriageway and proper wind damping measures to replace both bridges. Keep the Menai Bridge for cyclists and pedestrians and the Britannia Bridge for rail traffic, as it's going to be a bastard to electrify it with the road deck in the way.

    Would make the lions a bit less sadly hidden away if they took the road deck back off the Britannia Bridge...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Ishmael_Z said:

    It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.

    It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
    Mad and wrong.
    If you can provide a counter example, I'm all ears.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    I think actually Sunak's instincts were right about covid.
    He wanted us back in the office in October 2020. It was his instincts that lead to the disasterous Autumn/Winter 2020 handling.

    Then a year later when winter 2021 came round he fucked off to his holiday home in California.

    He really doesn't want his Covid actions examined in too much detail.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.

    Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.

    A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.

    For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.

    https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu
    Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
    The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.

    Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
    And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.

    I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
    Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
    We need to look at CFCs and the ozone hole. The Montreal Protocol was agreed in ?1988?, ten to fifteen years after the mechanism was first proposed, and only three years after the fist solid evidence was discovered by the British Antarctic Survey. It was amazingly fast work; industry adapted, and the problem has (mostly) been solved.

    Likewise, the vast majority of governments around the world agree that climate change is a problem. Most of those are working towards 'fixing' the problem; but it is a slow process, especially when technological solutions are not in place. But there is a will, and there is progress. It's just that the CFC issue was many orders of magnitude easier to solve.
    On the Telegraph Ukraine podcast yesterday one of their economics correspondents reported from Germany on how industry has been adapting to high gas prices. A BMW car plant in Munich has cut its gas use in half, as has a major chemicals plant.

    These are huge strides forward and you wonder what might have been achieved over the last couple of decades if the same focus and determination had been applied then that is now coming to bear to deal with the gas crisis.
    I'd agree, *if* the BMW plant is managing to produce exactly the same amount despite the reduction in gas usage, and it can manage that reduction permanently (i.e. it is not doing things like drawing down on stocks, despite JIT). Ditto the chemical plant.

    But yes, there is lots industry and commerce can do. Heck, there's lots *we* can do as well. I just don't expect miracles.
    Given the Telegraph's normal slant on things (anti-Green and anti-German) I'd have expected the story to have been pretty clear on "car production down due to high gas prices" if that had been the case, though it was an obvious thing I thought of that they didn't say explicitly.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Roger said:

    Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.

    Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.

    Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.

    (Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited October 2022
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    I think actually Sunak's instincts were right about covid.
    He wanted us back in the office in October 2020. It was his instincts that lead to the disasterous Autumn/Winter 2020 handling.

    Then a year later when winter 2021 came round he fucked off to his holiday home in California.

    He really doesn't want his Covid actions examined in too much detail.
    He still gets credit in some quarters for furlough though (I acknowledge it was not a universally applauded idea as implemented - I include myself in the detractors). That allows him to get a hearing from some people that he otherwise would not.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.

    https://twitter.com/hannah_gary/status/1584790781902356481?s=46&t=b7qMuVgYtDOibR9Z-4LSrA
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Sandpit said:

    In positive news, Ukraine is doing well in Kherson, as the Russians there evacuate themselves. The enemy also appears to have stopped with the khamikhazi drones, having run out of them.

    Hopefully, the new PM can be a lot more unequivocal in his support, than he was over the summer.

    Iran had an accident with their drone assembly factory in Syria. Lucky Strike is really back, as a brand.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.

    It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
    You mean like how Sunak paid generous tribute to Truss yesterday?

    And Truss didn’t when she assumed office.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2022
    I do love polling sometimes. Just did a survey, which opened asking if I'd heard of various sporting bodies (FA, ECB etc), and didn't select the options about horses. It then asks something like 'Just to check, have you heard of the Jockey Club?', and I select no, and then it is asking about my attitudes to horseracing. I can almost feel the disappointment in the survey that I have heard nothing, know nothing, and care nothing about horse racing (and cannot suggest how it might grab my interest).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Kieran Pedley on BBC News. Didn't he used to post on here?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov MRP.

    Starmer wins 389 seats, Sunak 127 seats. 116 still too close to call between them

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720?s=20&t=uUu-HKpc10Cpm2dQcClk5w

    I can't recall who but someone pointed out that included SNP seats?

    I'd say Sunak/TCTC go Tory and Starmer loses 35 seats to SNP on current numbers.

    So that points to something like 240 Tory seats and 350 Labour, or similar, atm.
    You have to remember that the options in the poll were very limited, so it's not a GE voting intention equiovalent at all.
    Unsurprisingly, Mini Franco is pretending it is.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Kieran Pedley on BBC News. Didn't he used to post on here?

    He wrote some interesting articles on details of the polling.
This discussion has been closed.