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Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,799
    edited October 2022
    Sunak gave a number a very good statements to the public (and interviews) where he talked "human" during COVID. He was much better than boosterer Boris who was all over the place, where he managed to be neither convincing, reassuring or motivating.

    However, its much easier when you are giving out sweeties rather than taking them away.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    alex_ said:

    Sh*t just realised. A significant milestone in my life has passed (not a good one). First time that the PM has been younger than me… :(

    Sunak is younger than me but Biden is older than my Dad.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    I think Sunak holding out an olive branch to Truss was a mistake.

    He needs to blame her and bury her.

    Perhaps that’s his plan, but I don’t think it is.

    She’s going to haunt the Conservative Party for decades, now. Opposition parties will use her and her ideology to whip Sunak and the tories. And rightly so.

    Sorry, but politics is brutal.

    He needed/needs to cauterise the wound.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Geoffrey Clinton-Brown (member of 1922 Committee) said on camera on Sky News (about 20 mins ago) that Boris did have the 100 nominations required and voluntarily withdrew.

    Gary Gibbon on C4 News said the aggregate number of claimed nominations exceeded the total number of Tory MPs by 32.
    But we know many switched from Boris to Penny.

    ie They were in the Boris 100 and then also in however many (approx 90?) Penny claimed today.

    Sunak 200
    Boris 100
    Penny 90

    Total 390

    Say 50 switched from Boris to Penny, giving

    340 MPs nominated someone out of 357 total MPs.
    I think you forgot to subtract the first number you thought of. Or possibly that someone in one of the "campaign teams" thought of.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    My parents' bank manager, back when there were such things, was a Mr Frank Money.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ping said:

    I think Sunak holding out an olive branch to Truss was a mistake.

    He needs to blame her and bury her.

    Perhaps that’s his plan, but I don’t think it is.

    She’s going to haunt the Conservative Party for decades, now.

    It was for the party not the country.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    I had some dealings a few years ago with a firm of solicitors named Cheethams.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Is Crackpot Cruella still Home Secretary?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,631
    edited October 2022

    IanB2 said:

    Margaret Beckett on R4 PM - I thought she was dead.

    Not a flicker of acknowledgment let alone guilt or shame from the old dinosaur for being personally responsible for all of this!

    Didn't we resolve the other day that Kenny Dalglish was responsible for all of this?
    Here was me thinking it was Ed Miliband.
    You have to go back a few steps before that.

    Kenny Dalglish > Dennis Canavan > Eric Joyce (Stuart Andrew) > Ed Miliband > Margaret Beckett > Jeremy Corbyn > David Cameron > Theresa May > Boris Johnson > Liz Truss > Rishi Sunak

    (or something like that)
    Ah, I see. Ed was just one of the chain.

    Trump, the Ukrainian war, Boris and Brexit. All on Kenny Dalglish.

    Should have stayed as a goalkeeper. None of this would have happened.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    IanB2 said:

    Margaret Beckett on R4 PM - I thought she was dead.

    Not a flicker of acknowledgment let alone guilt or shame from the old dinosaur for being personally responsible for all of this!

    Didn't we resolve the other day that Kenny Dalglish was responsible for all of this?
    Here was me thinking it was Ed Miliband.
    You have to go back a few steps before that.

    Kenny Dalglish > Dennis Canavan > Eric Joyce (Stuart Andrew) > Ed Miliband > Margaret Beckett > Jeremy Corbyn > David Cameron > Theresa May > Boris Johnson > Liz Truss > Rishi Sunak

    (or something like that)
    Ah, I see. Ed was just one of the chain.

    Trump, the Ukrainian war, Boris and Brexit. All on Kenny Dalglish.

    Should have stayed as a goalkeeper. None of this would have happened.
    Indeed. Wise, wise words.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,364
    pm215 said:

    darkage said:

    I've been watching the TV and seeing that people in the 'red wall' are complaining about how hard it is, cost of living crisis, how things are desperate etc, going to food banks etc.
    However, the minimum wage is £9.50 and there is something close to full employment. Both things that this 'tory' government have done.
    £9.50 an hour is a take home pay of £1384 per month.... after tax. Thats for 37.5 hours per week.
    If you have a double income of £2700 per month (ie two people on the minimum wage) how can anyone in this position seriously regard themselves as poor? That is before you add on tax breaks etc. You don't really pay much tax at this level anyway.

    You're rather stacking the deck there... Not everybody is in a two-person family. Not everybody in employment is in full-time employment. Not everybody without a job is counted in the official "unemployment rate" stat (check the 'economic inactivity rate' in these official stats, for instance: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9366/ ).
    All that is true.... and of course the government cannot provide for every circumstance. But the rise in the minimum wage and full employment is a major positive delivered by Brexit and the Conservative party post 2019; in a lot of way this is delivering for the red wall.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022

    MikeL said:

    Geoffrey Clinton-Brown (member of 1922 Committee) said on camera on Sky News (about 20 mins ago) that Boris did have the 100 nominations required and voluntarily withdrew.

    Then Boris needs to show us the list.

    Gary Gibbon on C4 News said the aggregate number of claimed nominations exceeded the total number of Tory MPs by 32.
    Presumably when Boris said he was withdrawing some rushed to nominate Rishi instead? So it is possible.
    Source for a maximum of one nomination per MP being allowed? These aren't votes, after all.

    Commentators being harsh on Sunak I think for his stiff and short acceptance speech.

    This is the moment the enormity of what they are taking on descends on the speech giver. Cut him some slack.

    If its still crap next week we can always fit another contest in before Bonfire Night.

    It is reported he will address the nation tomorrow in Downing Street after his trip to see Charles. An opportunity to give a better speech.
    And to use a normal lectern rather than the one Truss used.

    It's kinda funny that most of the Tories who said "nobody ever recovers from a 30% poll deficit" a few days ago will change their soiled underwear and say something completely different now.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,074
    The big unknown to me is whether Sunak will try to stamp his authority on the party or try to pander to the lunatics where he can.

    He is in a very strong position because the Party won't dare being him down for fear of Boris getting back in next time. But my sneaking suspicion is he will try to appease the right wing of the party.
  • Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    I had some dealings a few years ago with a firm of solicitors named Cheethams.
    Dewey, Cheatham and Howe

    Fine old Boston (Mass) firm, made infamous by "Click & Clack" aka the Magliozzi Bros Tom & Ray.
  • DougSeal said:

    alex_ said:

    Sh*t just realised. A significant milestone in my life has passed (not a good one). First time that the PM has been younger than me… :(

    Sunak is younger than me but Biden is older than my Dad.
    "Boris knew my mother / Mother knew BoJo!"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Ratters said:

    The big unknown to me is whether Sunak will try to stamp his authority on the party or try to pander to the lunatics where he can.

    He is in a very strong position because the Party won't dare being him down for fear of Boris getting back in next time. But my sneaking suspicion is he will try to appease the right wing of the party.

    The authoritarian right yes. The libertarian right no. That bunch of loons will need to be expunged from the record.

    He needs an authoritarian in the Home Office for a start.
  • IanB2 said:

    Margaret Beckett on R4 PM - I thought she was dead.

    Not a flicker of acknowledgment let alone guilt or shame from the old dinosaur for being personally responsible for all of this!

    Didn't we resolve the other day that Kenny Dalglish was responsible for all of this?
    Here was me thinking it was Ed Miliband.
    You have to go back a few steps before that.

    Kenny Dalglish > Dennis Canavan > Eric Joyce (Stuart Andrew) > Ed Miliband > Margaret Beckett > Jeremy Corbyn > David Cameron > Theresa May > Boris Johnson > Liz Truss > Rishi Sunak

    (or something like that)
    Ah, I see. Ed was just one of the chain.

    Trump, the Ukrainian war, Boris and Brexit. All on Kenny Dalglish.

    Should have stayed as a goalkeeper. None of this would have happened.
    I blame Keir - Keir Hardie.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855
    .
    Alistair said:

    Just got fifty quid on Fetterman @ evens in Pennsylvania. I know it's tight but it's not that tight.

    If rust belt polling is going to stab me in the back again then so be it - I had vowed not to put money on these midterms for the same reason I didn't in 2018 (high voter engagement rendering polling turnout models useless) but that is a value bet in my estimation.

    EDIT: I suppose I'm continually drawn back to the Kansas abortion referendum. The polling had Yes winning (checks notes) 52/48. In the end No won 41/59.

    There is, though, the recent concerning poll which (irrationally, IMO) shows voters give Republicans more than a 10% lead on economic competence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855
    kinabalu said:

    alex_ said:

    Sh*t just realised. A significant milestone in my life has passed (not a good one). First time that the PM has been younger than me… :(

    DC for me. You get over it but it does take time.
    Once I realised that my kids were smarter than me, such little things didn’t seem important at all.
  • DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    My parents' bank manager, back when there were such things, was a Mr Frank Money.
    When I was a kid, most of my school clothes were obtained via J(ohn) C(ash) Penney.

    I was NOT alone.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    Alistair said:

    Just got fifty quid on Fetterman @ evens in Pennsylvania. I know it's tight but it's not that tight.

    If rust belt polling is going to stab me in the back again then so be it - I had vowed not to put money on these midterms for the same reason I didn't in 2018 (high voter engagement rendering polling turnout models useless) but that is a value bet in my estimation.

    EDIT: I suppose I'm continually drawn back to the Kansas abortion referendum. The polling had Yes winning (checks notes) 52/48. In the end No won 41/59.

    There is, though, the recent concerning poll which (irrationally, IMO) shows voters give Republicans more than a 10% lead on economic competence.
    Rational IF you think Cost of Living is something POTUS is accountable for. As most US voters always have done.
  • I know everything might still fall apart very quickly and they deserve a whole lot of opprobrium for the shit show of 2022 to date but it does feel like the Tory party took a collective decision to at least try and grow up, govern and help us all get through this this week. A million miles to go but it is something of an initial relief

    But, crucially, the members were excluded from that "collectve" decision.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,030

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🗺️ NEW MRP | Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (21-23 Oct)

    Starmer: 389 wins in constituencies
    Sunak: 127 constituencies
    'Not sure': 116 constituencies

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/24/mrp-starmer-wins-best-prime-minister-389-seats-sun https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720/photo/1

    Ridiculous polling

    He isn't PM until tomorrow and any change in polling will take time

    Let's see where we are next April/ May
    The nation gave Truss 40 days. Things move quickly these days. I can't recall you asking for more time for Truss.
    Truss behaviour and mini budget condemned her in days

    Sunak/ Hunt combination has steadied the markets and been welcomed especially the bond market

    Next Monday is Hunt's statement produced alongside the OBR which will be responsible and I expect substantial energy and bank windfall taxes

    Johnson is gone and my relief is palpable, and I expect a very different government going forward
    You do realise Sunak worked quite happily for Johnson and presided over the creation of the economic problems we now face. You can blame Truss for many things, but she just lit the touch paper on the charges that Sunak had laid before she entered no10.
    Sunak was the architect of the hugely successful furlough scheme and in case you have forgotten introduced a windfall tax on energy

    You clearly do not like him but maybe opposition supporters protest too much, as they see a very different decent and honest PM taking the fight to labour
    I just think you are glad that you got anyone but Boris. I don't blame you. But dig a little deeper and there are a few question marks over Sunak.
    Silly, a few question marks is as good as it gets with any politician. Boris and Liz, there were no question marks at all. Just !s.

    You are butt hurt because SKS is going to have to work a lot harder. Me, I am rejoicing not as a Tory, W*k*h*m*st, or Oxford man but as a citoyen du Royaume Uni that Borliz iz history.

    My butt is just peachy, no germaloids required.
    Please. Tell us more about your butt.

    Ah hem, please no "us". You're implying that people other than you want butt info, and I'm sad to say that I don't think that's true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855
    Roger said:

    …But I might be wrong…

    Say it ain’t so, Roger !
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I know everything might still fall apart very quickly and they deserve a whole lot of opprobrium for the shit show of 2022 to date but it does feel like the Tory party took a collective decision to at least try and grow up, govern and help us all get through this this week. A million miles to go but it is something of an initial relief

    But, crucially, the members were excluded from that "collectve" decision.
    Probably why it feels more like adult behaviour
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854

    Is Crackpot Cruella still Home Secretary?

    Narrow it down....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855
    Nice bunch.

    Ever wonder how Russian cruise missiles find their way into Ukrainian playgrounds, power stations, and apartment buildings? Well thanks to
    @bellingcat’s @christogrozev wonder no more. It’s time to meet the team behind the targeting of Russian missiles on civilian infrastructure.

    https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1584607815968395264
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Ratters said:

    The big unknown to me is whether Sunak will try to stamp his authority on the party or try to pander to the lunatics where he can.

    He is in a very strong position because the Party won't dare being him down for fear of Boris getting back in next time. But my sneaking suspicion is he will try to appease the right wing of the party.

    The authoritarian right yes. The libertarian right no. That bunch of loons will need to be expunged from the record.

    He needs an authoritarian in the Home Office for a start.
    Er, why?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🗺️ NEW MRP | Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (21-23 Oct)

    Starmer: 389 wins in constituencies
    Sunak: 127 constituencies
    'Not sure': 116 constituencies

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/24/mrp-starmer-wins-best-prime-minister-389-seats-sun https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720/photo/1

    Ridiculous polling

    He isn't PM until tomorrow and any change in polling will take time

    Let's see where we are next April/ May
    The nation gave Truss 40 days. Things move quickly these days. I can't recall you asking for more time for Truss.
    Truss behaviour and mini budget condemned her in days

    Sunak/ Hunt combination has steadied the markets and been welcomed especially the bond market

    Next Monday is Hunt's statement produced alongside the OBR which will be responsible and I expect substantial energy and bank windfall taxes

    Johnson is gone and my relief is palpable, and I expect a very different government going forward
    You do realise Sunak worked quite happily for Johnson and presided over the creation of the economic problems we now face. You can blame Truss for many things, but she just lit the touch paper on the charges that Sunak had laid before she entered no10.
    Sunak was the architect of the hugely successful furlough scheme and in case you have forgotten introduced a windfall tax on energy

    You clearly do not like him but maybe opposition supporters protest too much, as they see a very different decent and honest PM taking the fight to labour
    I just think you are glad that you got anyone but Boris. I don't blame you. But dig a little deeper and there are a few question marks over Sunak.
    Silly, a few question marks is as good as it gets with any politician. Boris and Liz, there were no question marks at all. Just !s.

    You are butt hurt because SKS is going to have to work a lot harder. Me, I am rejoicing not as a Tory, W*k*h*m*st, or Oxford man but as a citoyen du Royaume Uni that Borliz iz history.

    My butt is just peachy, no germaloids required.
    Please. Tell us more about your butt.

    Ah hem, please no "us". You're implying that people other than you want butt info, and I'm sad to say that I don't think that's true.
    Hey, Mod! What's the big idea, butting in like that? When you should be turning the other cheek!

    This site is hitting bottom - best get cracking! What you might call a fundamental challenge for PB.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,258
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🗺️ NEW MRP | Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (21-23 Oct)

    Starmer: 389 wins in constituencies
    Sunak: 127 constituencies
    'Not sure': 116 constituencies

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/24/mrp-starmer-wins-best-prime-minister-389-seats-sun https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720/photo/1

    Ridiculous polling

    He isn't PM until tomorrow and any change in polling will take time

    Let's see where we are next April/ May
    The nation gave Truss 40 days. Things move quickly these days. I can't recall you asking for more time for Truss.
    Truss behaviour and mini budget condemned her in days

    Sunak/ Hunt combination has steadied the markets and been welcomed especially the bond market

    Next Monday is Hunt's statement produced alongside the OBR which will be responsible and I expect substantial energy and bank windfall taxes

    Johnson is gone and my relief is palpable, and I expect a very different government going forward
    You do realise Sunak worked quite happily for Johnson and presided over the creation of the economic problems we now face. You can blame Truss for many things, but she just lit the touch paper on the charges that Sunak had laid before she entered no10.
    Sunak was the architect of the hugely successful furlough scheme and in case you have forgotten introduced a windfall tax on energy

    You clearly do not like him but maybe opposition supporters protest too much, as they see a very different decent and honest PM taking the fight to labour
    I just think you are glad that you got anyone but Boris. I don't blame you. But dig a little deeper and there are a few question marks over Sunak.
    Silly, a few question marks is as good as it gets with any politician. Boris and Liz, there were no question marks at all. Just !s.

    You are butt hurt because SKS is going to have to work a lot harder. Me, I am rejoicing not as a Tory, W*k*h*m*st, or Oxford man but as a citoyen du Royaume Uni that Borliz iz history.

    My butt is just peachy, no germaloids required.
    Please. Tell us more about your butt.

    Ah hem, please no "us". You're implying that people other than you want butt info, and I'm sad to say that I don't think that's true.
    I heard this evening about fake butts for doctors to practice rectal exams on, but apparently there was a problem when they had to use male butts with prostates, instead of the female butts they were supposed to be using.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Alistair said:

    Just got fifty quid on Fetterman @ evens in Pennsylvania. I know it's tight but it's not that tight.

    If rust belt polling is going to stab me in the back again then so be it - I had vowed not to put money on these midterms for the same reason I didn't in 2018 (high voter engagement rendering polling turnout models useless) but that is a value bet in my estimation.

    EDIT: I suppose I'm continually drawn back to the Kansas abortion referendum. The polling had Yes winning (checks notes) 52/48. In the end No won 41/59.

    There is, though, the recent concerning poll which (irrationally, IMO) shows voters give Republicans more than a 10% lead on economic competence.
    Yeah, it's been a terrible week and a half of polling for the Dems. But it hasn't been _that_ terrible.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272
    I think Bozo has burned his bridges with some of the Tory cult members in parliament.

    Jetting in and then only realizing 3 days later the bleeding obvious re how much support he had has left a bad taste .

  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,122
    darkage said:

    pm215 said:

    darkage said:

    I've been watching the TV and seeing that people in the 'red wall' are complaining about how hard it is, cost of living crisis, how things are desperate etc, going to food banks etc.
    However, the minimum wage is £9.50 and there is something close to full employment. Both things that this 'tory' government have done.
    £9.50 an hour is a take home pay of £1384 per month.... after tax. Thats for 37.5 hours per week.
    If you have a double income of £2700 per month (ie two people on the minimum wage) how can anyone in this position seriously regard themselves as poor? That is before you add on tax breaks etc. You don't really pay much tax at this level anyway.

    You're rather stacking the deck there... Not everybody is in a two-person family. Not everybody in employment is in full-time employment. Not everybody without a job is counted in the official "unemployment rate" stat (check the 'economic inactivity rate' in these official stats, for instance: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9366/ ).
    All that is true.... and of course the government cannot provide for every circumstance. But the rise in the minimum wage and full employment is a major positive delivered by Brexit and the Conservative party post 2019; in a lot of way this is delivering for the red wall.
    Unfortunately for the government, people are unlikely to give them credit for "it got some small % easier for me to get a job", because they'll assume it was their own merits that got them that job. Whereas they are pretty firmly assigning the blame for the recent rise in their cost of living to the government (the government having just rather splashily hung that albatross round their own neck, even if some of the drivers are the global situation and not their fault).
  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    My parents' bank manager, back when there were such things, was a Mr Frank Money.
    There’s an estate agents in Kidderminster called Doolittle & Dalley, and just down the road in Bromsgrove the local butchers were called Badham & Grizzel. Both longstanding businesses running for generations.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,732
    nico679 said:

    I think Bozo has burned his bridges with some of the Tory cult members in parliament.

    Jetting in and then only realizing 3 days later the bleeding obvious re how much support he had has left a bad taste .

    Getting a rush notice whilst on holiday. Economizing in with the kids (I guess all that was available). Genuinely being urged to stand, and realising it was a fool's errand - it depends how you portray these things.

    Actually running would have been a very poor choice. As it is, not so bad.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272
    The myth surrounding the GOP on economic competence seems to continue and the vomit inducing hypocrisy where they green light tax cuts for the wealthy and don’t care about the national debt when they have Congress , and then want to hold the raising of the debt ceiling hostage to force cuts to Medicare and social security where they suddenly care about the debt .

    And yet still you get them being rewarded by those who they’re acting against . Quite bizarre and truly depressing .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Ratters said:

    The big unknown to me is whether Sunak will try to stamp his authority on the party or try to pander to the lunatics where he can.

    He is in a very strong position because the Party won't dare being him down for fear of Boris getting back in next time. But my sneaking suspicion is he will try to appease the right wing of the party.

    The authoritarian right yes. The libertarian right no. That bunch of loons will need to be expunged from the record.

    He needs an authoritarian in the Home Office for a start.
    Er, why?
    To keep his voters on side.
  • Bit of GOOD news for Democrats as we approach Election Day + 2 weeks

    Politico.com - Republicans launch rescue mission in Oklahoma governor race
    The deep-red state has seen unusually close polling — and unusually high spending — in this year's gubernatorial election.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/21/ads-oklahoma-governor-race-00062945

    Donald Trump won Oklahoma by over 30 points in 2020 — but Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt is still getting last-minute help to close out his reelection bid.

    Stitt has been deadlocked in a string of recent public polls in the state with Democrat Joy Hofmeister, the state superintendent of education, who switched parties at the end of last year to launch her gubernatorial bid. Some surveys released since the beginning of the month have even shown Hofmeister with a narrow lead over the incumbent governor.

    Against that backdrop, the Republican Governors Association announced a “seven figure” ad buy in support of Stitt — the second time the committee has rushed money into the state this cycle, after a group affiliated with the RGA bought ad time boosting him during the primary.

    Stitt has faced a surprisingly robust wave of television ads attacking him over the last two years, which his allies point to as the reason why he is locked in a close contest. According to data from AdImpact, an ad tracking firm, over $7 million in advertising has been booked by groups either attacking Stitt or boosting Hofmeister in the general election, with an additional $1 million from her campaign. That’s on top of the at least $6 million more that other organizations spent against Stitt in the GOP primary, which he ultimately won comfortably.

    And in an unusual display of unity in the state, the leaders of Oklahoma’s five largest Native American tribes all endorsed Hofmeister earlier this month, calling this year’s gubernatorial contest “the most important in generations for all Oklahomans” in a joint statement.

    “We are a community that cares deeply about sovereign tribal nations, who care deeply about Oklahoma,” Hofmeister said in a brief interview, saying the backing of the tribes is something that has been “resonating across the state.”

    The source of much of the funding battering Stitt has been shrouded in mystery, because it has been run through “dark money” groups that don’t disclose their donors. But Stitt and his allies have placed the blame on the state’s Native American tribes, which have repeatedly clashed with the governor. (Stitt himself is a member of the Cherokee Nation.)

    “It’s the big casino bosses,” Stitt told The Oklahoman. “It’s the big tribes.” An ad from his campaign also alluded to this, saying the “insiders and the casino bosses” were attacking Stitt.

    SSI - Democratic victory in Sooner State seems incredibly unlikely. My guess is that OK tribes are sending the Gov a message more than hoping to upend him. Though hope, they say, DOES spring eternal in the human breat.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,913
    Nigelb said:

    Nice bunch.

    Ever wonder how Russian cruise missiles find their way into Ukrainian playgrounds, power stations, and apartment buildings? Well thanks to
    @bellingcat’s @christogrozev wonder no more. It’s time to meet the team behind the targeting of Russian missiles on civilian infrastructure.

    https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1584607815968395264

    Christo Grozev is a hero.
  • One consideration for mid-term punters: the extent and composition of early Early Voting, including absentees.

    Don't have numbers at hand, but they are bigger than a breadbox. Certainly spiked since 2018 mid-terms, though down from 2020, though much of THAT differential due to reduced turnout overall compared to presidential election.

    Just got my own ballot in mail this weekend. Finished marking it today, will return it to Election Dept tomorrow.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🗺️ NEW MRP | Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (21-23 Oct)

    Starmer: 389 wins in constituencies
    Sunak: 127 constituencies
    'Not sure': 116 constituencies

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/24/mrp-starmer-wins-best-prime-minister-389-seats-sun https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720/photo/1

    Ridiculous polling

    He isn't PM until tomorrow and any change in polling will take time

    Let's see where we are next April/ May
    The nation gave Truss 40 days. Things move quickly these days. I can't recall you asking for more time for Truss.
    Truss behaviour and mini budget condemned her in days

    Sunak/ Hunt combination has steadied the markets and been welcomed especially the bond market

    Next Monday is Hunt's statement produced alongside the OBR which will be responsible and I expect substantial energy and bank windfall taxes

    Johnson is gone and my relief is palpable, and I expect a very different government going forward
    You do realise Sunak worked quite happily for Johnson and presided over the creation of the economic problems we now face. You can blame Truss for many things, but she just lit the touch paper on the charges that Sunak had laid before she entered no10.
    Sunak was the architect of the hugely successful furlough scheme and in case you have forgotten introduced a windfall tax on energy

    You clearly do not like him but maybe opposition supporters protest too much, as they see a very different decent and honest PM taking the fight to labour
    I just think you are glad that you got anyone but Boris. I don't blame you. But dig a little deeper and there are a few question marks over Sunak.
    Silly, a few question marks is as good as it gets with any politician. Boris and Liz, there were no question marks at all. Just !s.

    You are butt hurt because SKS is going to have to work a lot harder. Me, I am rejoicing not as a Tory, W*k*h*m*st, or Oxford man but as a citoyen du Royaume Uni that Borliz iz history.

    My butt is just peachy, no germaloids required.
    Please. Tell us more about your butt.

    Ah hem, please no "us". You're implying that people other than you want butt info, and I'm sad to say that I don't think that's true.
    I heard this evening about fake butts for doctors to practice rectal exams on, but apparently there was a problem when they had to use male butts with prostates, instead of the female butts they were supposed to be using.
    There's a boy across the river with a bottom like a peach
    Alas! I cannot swim.

    Pathan love song.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Barney said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    My parents' bank manager, back when there were such things, was a Mr Frank Money.
    There’s an estate agents in Kidderminster called Doolittle & Dalley, and just down the road in Bromsgrove the local butchers were called Badham & Grizzel. Both longstanding businesses running for generations.
    My greatest regret is that Standard & Poor never took a Mr Goode into partnership with them.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Barney said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    My parents' bank manager, back when there were such things, was a Mr Frank Money.
    There’s an estate agents in Kidderminster called Doolittle & Dalley, and just down the road in Bromsgrove the local butchers were called Badham & Grizzel. Both longstanding businesses running for generations.
    There are a plethora of amusing names at Bekonscot Model Village. Worth a visit if you like that sort of thing.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,964

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    A couple of friends with interesting surnames - I tried to persuade them to start a financial services firm.

    1) Conn, Fidler & Dodge would have *owned* the personal finance market. Just on the name.
    2) Legally fireproof. Can you imagine? The Judge - “So you give me to understand that your clients invested with a firm named… {checks notes, moves glasses to the end of his nose}…..

    Sadly they wouldn’t do it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Been out all day and have just caught up. Saw the speech and was pretty underwhelmed but that's okay.

    Rishi is going to be dull, and the General Election will be a borefest between two dull leaders which won't please Leondamus one bit.

    But that's quite alright by me to be honest. I've had it with flamboyant liars and incompetents. So has the country. We need stability and good governance. We need to try and get through the colossal challenges we face. We may get some way towards achieving that with Rishi so let's give him a chance, and I write that as a leftie.

    He should be fine.

    Rishi is not yet Prime Minister. That might explain a certain diffidence in public speaking. The King was not at home today. Appointing the new Prime Minister might happen tonight, tomorrow, or possibly even Wednesday. Until then, Liz Truss remains Prime Minister, our bets remain unsettled, and tomorrow's Cabinet will have a slightly odd feel.
    Tomorrow morning, apparently, so presumably before that Cabinet (if indeed it happens at all).
    Hmm, BBC News tells me I am wrong. That will be a bizarre meeting.


    Only an hour to prep for PMQs?

    Edit: This feels like a long week already...
    Its the following day
    Indeed. But tomorrow will see a Cabinet meeting, a quick change in Prime Ministers, followed, one imagines, by appointment of a new Cabinet. It really does look as if Number 10 and Buckingham Palace were both expecting a contested election that would run until Friday.
    To be honest Charles should have been in London from this morning no matter

    He was only at Sandringham
    I was here when everyone on PB was getting pissy at the Queen for not coming down from Balmoral. The woman was at death's door.

    What's the rush anyway?
    It’s beneficial that PMs realise they aren’t that important.

    Memento Mori
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    James Cleverly.

    Has anyone had a more inappropriate surname?

    I used to work with a surgeon named Mr Payne, and was at Medical School with Sandra De'Ath...
    Used to have a landlord named Rooks, a lawyer no less. Aptly named.
    There is a law firm (if I remember correctly in Warwick) called Wright Hassall
    Our local solicitors are A J Careless
This discussion has been closed.