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Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Standard approaches will prevail.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    edited October 2022
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    I can see the Tories back in the low 30s pretty quickly but that is still quite a long way behind and people will not forget the shambles of 2022 from January until today.
    I suspect that is correct.

    A honeymoon is deserved for seeing off Johnson, nonetheless Sunak has questions to answer for his own patchy tenure as CoE.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    The 2019 manifesto one.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Rishi Sunak is becoming Prime Minister. His family is loaded so caviar and lobster on the menu for me from tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/number10cat/status/1584531605305298945?s=46&t=zwJrgd_fAg5vVIbAqlOl5w
  • biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.
    I specifically noted the "honeymoon bounce". I just don't see incumbency being Sunak's friend with the economic picture and how it is looking over the next couple of years.

    Quite a few hubristic Conservatives are already doing victory laps on here and in media interviews.
    Realism is needed, but in my case it is the relief that toxic Johnson is over and at least we have a PM with decency, honesty, and integrity and the fact he is of Asian origin is the icing on the cake
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    Yes, a rerun of 2015. The government isn't popular but people trust the top team (then Dave and George, now Rishi and Hunt) to lead the nation through the difficult times rather than take a risk on Labour who will undo everything.

    It's a difficult task (I think impossible) because the Tory party shat the bed over the last few months and Truss, IMO, has completely trashed the Tory reputation on fiscal responsibility for at least 10 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

    You can't just add crisis or emergency to every issue you dislike.

    Though I understand many fans had big issues with Identity Crisis.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    England: 200 to 250
    Scotland: zilch
    Wales: zilch
    N Ireland: zilch

    The party of the Union. Ho ho.
    I would shift that a little lower, depending on what actually happens with the NeverRishi brigade.

    We can leave aside the "voting for Reform UK" nonsense. But they will be making a lot of negative noise until the election, and then sitting on their hands because, in reality, they are less angry about a Labour PM that looks like Starmer, than they are about Sunak.

    A slightly larger spread, and maybe 150-220.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    We will face the tough challenges ahead together. You with your decreasing salary, rising energy bills and soaring mortgage rates and me with my £730million fortune.
    #RishiSunak


    https://twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1584533147533778944?s=46&t=zwJrgd_fAg5vVIbAqlOl5w
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.
    Agreed. Anything can happen in the next two years and probably will.

    Meanwhile, how will financial markets respond to the Halloween budget next week?

    In Scotland, Sunak will probably have an effect on churn both to and away from the SNP:

    to the SNP:
    first group: "he's so English";
    second group: "we don't want to become even more like London";
    away from the SNP
    "at least he's not born-and-bred English".

    His aggregate effect on Scotland may turn out to be neutral. If anything, slightly in favour of the SNP.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,364
    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    I'm not celebrating as I'm not in the Conservative Party. I'm glad Boris and Truss are gone though.It is too early to judge Sunak anyway, we've got to see what he does.

    You are correct that Sunaks image of 'Mr Competent' is largely a product of the last leadership campaign. But before that, he was bought in by Cummings to serve Johnsons 'spraying money at things' economic agenda and disrupt the treasury orthodoxy. I think he will largely escape any reckoning for these decisions.

    It does pose a problem for Starmer though. He's going to have to do something better than just saying 'I will do what they are doing but better' . Unless Sunak bombs, Starmer needs a new strategy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

    Whatever can he mean?

    A look at the chap's party website offers some hints, such as a reference to Our Island Story (capitalised). "Rural Conservatism is about a deep and atavistic connection to the soil beneath our feet and to the ancestors whose footprints we now walk in." I don't think they like [edit] mass immigration, either.

    https://www.ruralconservatives.org/beliefs
    Is he local?
    Local to where? I get the impression from a quick look at twitter that he might be from Big_G country - North Wales, anyway - which will not please the latter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Congratulations @RishiSunak on being appointed as Leader of the Conservative Party and our next Prime Minister.

    You have my full support.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1584545601177686016

    Fair play for even tweeting anything.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800
    mwadams said:

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

    The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

    If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.
    It is not when the War ends, so much as when the economic restructuring around sanctions on Russia are fully absorbed. Those sanctions (and the need to remove the dependency on Russian energy) *will not* end with the end of the war.
    What are the prospects for Ukrainian gas exports to Europe? It would make sense to spend some of the EU reconstruction aid on that if it is feasible.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,258
    darkage said:

    It may have felt like the system was failing in Britain over the past year. But actually with hindsight we can see the system worked: despite a large majority two incompetent prime ministers were ejected and the cabinet member seen as the most competent installed.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584545406540972032

    On reflection I think this comment is a bit premature. We've got to wait a few months to see what Sunak actually does, how he handles certain issues, before that conclusion can be reached. But certainly he is right about Truss. She was useless and got removed, this is evidence of an effective political system that can respond to events.
    One of the major problems is that the Tories internal coalition has broken down. If we had a form of PR, and it was a proper coalition between two parties, then the failure of the coalition would have led either to a new coalition that could hold together, or to an election.

    When an internal coalition breaks apart it makes government impossible, because both sides know they are in a struggle over control of the coloured rosettes, and if they lose they face electoral oblivion.

    Sunak would have to show exceptional political and leadership talents, and the various Tory factions unexpected levels of maturity and willingness to compromise, to prevent internal divisions from dominating Sunak's period as PM.

    But, well, maybe that's the plot twist?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    There's a sit-in protest by Greenpeace going on in Central Lobby right now

    Here's the moment it happened live on
    @SkyNews, while they were mid-interview with Rebecca Pow and Laura Farris

    A policeman then came over to try to stop them from filming


    https://twitter.com/eleanormia/status/1584549797674917889

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,466

    148grss said:


    I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.

    He's certainly a huge problem, not only because of the economic mess but also because the party ructions haven't gone away. Levelling up is not going to happen anytime soon - it was a meaningless bit of Boris boosterism without any policy substance behind it, and even if the policy substance were there it would take years to show results. What makes it even more difficult is that the red wall voters Boris won over seem to want things which are directly inimical to levelling up.
    The money for levelling up got spent - everywhere - on Covid furlough and other schemes. Suspect that without the intervention of Covid, it would have been a significant priority for Boris.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited October 2022

    This will create a huge amount of interest in the most populous country in the world. Difficult to quantify the soft power effect but it shouldn't be overlooked.

    Good point.

    The problem for him may be that many of the Brexiters don't want a too-friendly deal with India. Rishi is going to have his work cut out
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,939

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Not yet.

    Depends if that numpty Zahawi ends up in Rishi's cabinet.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,933

    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.
    I specifically noted the "honeymoon bounce". I just don't see incumbency being Sunak's friend with the economic picture and how it is looking over the next couple of years.

    Quite a few hubristic Conservatives are already doing victory laps on here and in media interviews.
    Oh I don’t disagree. But I do think the next election is a hard one to pick. I can seen a “Cameron 2009/10” factor in which many expect Starmer to win outright but the fundamentals and a limited “cling to nurse” bonus prevent it (whether he goes on to win his own majority the next time will then be a matter of skill).

    Will be money to be around GE night again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    The Tories have been making inroads into the Indian vote for a long time. Not surprising in that they are statistically better off than average and there is a high percentage of businessmen and professionals. But will Rishi bring seats in Leicester, Birmingham and Harrow into play?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,076
    nico679 said:

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
    Yes her reaction was poor, ill advised but the twitter pile on is grim.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,459
    nico679 said:

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
    It really isn't. BBC journalists are supposed to be neutral.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,939
    Blimey! It was just seven days ago that I received a text from a Tory MP saying: “Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal.”
    Liz Truss was PM and the text looked like fanciful plotting. Not any more.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1584308648905318400
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    Laura Farris and Sky political reporter making the point that Rishi in stronger position than if he had won against Truss - because they have got Truss "out of their system" and will be more united and clearer about what needs to be done so easier to get programme through.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:


    I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.

    He's certainly a huge problem, not only because of the economic mess but also because the party ructions haven't gone away. Levelling up is not going to happen anytime soon - it was a meaningless bit of Boris boosterism without any policy substance behind it, and even if the policy substance were there it would take years to show results. What makes it even more difficult is that the red wall voters Boris won over seem to want things which are directly inimical to levelling up.
    I mean, what I understood levelling up to be, and I think most voters assumed it meant, was some long term infrastructure spending - not just private house building but new / improved hospitals, schools, roads, general infrastructure. Even something like a quick turn around insulation programme, to deal with cost of living / energy and to get people back working, would tick this box. Lots of parts of the country are in dire need of direct investment that will not come from the private sector. So Rishi "I'm going to take money earmarked for the poorest parts of the country and redirect it to rich Tory safe seats" Sunak... probably won't go down well.

    I also think people here overestimate how people view Sunak. Some of his policies were popular, but they were policies he was forced to take due to Covid, not ones he wanted to do. And his overall performance as a politician is not particularly good. I see people who liked Johnson as very similar to those who liked Trump - they knew he was a slimeball and crooked, but he was at least going to be a slimeball and a crook for "people like me". Whereas Sunak is just another rich posho who they won't trust.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Has Thérèse Coffey gone yet?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    nico679 said:

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
    I love the BBC's impartiality. Unable to show Johnson in 2019 cocking up laying his wreath at the Cenotaph in case it embarrassed the poor lamb, they substituted footage from 2016. Impartiality in action.

    Give Martine her job back!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    edited October 2022
    I sense PB Tories recovering their ballast and brio. A sickening development.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Not yet.

    Depends if that numpty Zahawi ends up in Rishi's cabinet.
    Sounds like you’re close.

    I look forward to your ire being returned to the Scottish self-governance movement.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578
    The Bruges Group have given us the benefit of their wisdom:

    "Rishi Sunak was rejected overwhelmingly by Conservative Party Members mere weeks ago.

    MPs are about to crown him leader regardless.

    It’s a decision which will alienate activists (upon whom MPs rely to campaign on their behalf), with significant ramifications for the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1584531598858326016?s=20&t=sv8Fxix-__t7ERHS61szeA
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.
    That requires a very drastic change in some fashion imo - the collapse of the EU vindicating brexit, the UK being the only G7 not to go into recession, a fracture and split in Labour etc etc
    Any number of things could happen which of, as of yet, are not even on anyone's radar. As well as current issues turning out to be less apocalyptic than currently assumed.

    This is even before what Labour's policies are/will be in two years to address issues happening THEN. They've thus far announced very thin gruel, if anything, and nothing even approaching a programme of Government.

    If the polls are as they are, or as you suggest, a month or two before a GE then yes, hail PM Starmer. Until then it's all still completely up in the air and any chicken-counting is interesting, but pointless.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    kinabalu said:

    Sense PB Tories recovering their ballast and brio. A sickening sight.

    They have an extremely bumpy ride between now and the assumed next election landslide.

    At least it won't be Johnson, which gives me great comfort.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,466

    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.

    I think "Trussites" sounds about as of today as Hittites.....

    Try finding one by teatime.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,030

    mwadams said:

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

    The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

    If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.
    It is not when the War ends, so much as when the economic restructuring around sanctions on Russia are fully absorbed. Those sanctions (and the need to remove the dependency on Russian energy) *will not* end with the end of the war.
    What are the prospects for Ukrainian gas exports to Europe? It would make sense to spend some of the EU reconstruction aid on that if it is feasible.
    Ukraine (when there's not a war) produces about 20BCM of gas, and consumes about 25-30BCM. So, it's a net gas importer today.

    However, there's a lot of potential in the Black Sea that has never been exploited, because of Crimea and Russia. (Indeed, one of the major reasons Russia wanted Crimea was not because it was ethnically Russian, but because it gave them massive additional oil and gas reserves.)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    darkage said:

    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    I'm not celebrating as I'm not in the Conservative Party. I'm glad Boris and Truss are gone though.It is too early to judge Sunak anyway, we've got to see what he does.

    You are correct that Sunaks image of 'Mr Competent' is largely a product of the last leadership campaign. But before that, he was bought in by Cummings to serve Johnsons 'spraying money at things' economic agenda and disrupt the treasury orthodoxy. I think he will largely escape any reckoning for these decisions.

    It does pose a problem for Starmer though. He's going to have to do something better than just saying 'I will do what they are doing but better' . Unless Sunak bombs, Starmer needs a new strategy.
    Sunak might (to be proven) be better than Truss, but that does not make him competent. Truss may have pulled the trigger, but our economic weakness was built up on his watch.

    There will massive opportunities for Labour in the months to come as Rishi wrestles with the Tory mess. On the track record of the past year I am confident that Labour will grab them. They are doing opposition well.

    The 1990s presents a great model for Labour to follow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.

    Hunt isn't going anywhere!

    The two tests for the Cabinet appointments will be:

    - does he reach out to all wings of the party? I reckon he'll pass this one, including having some right wingers along for the ride

    - will the appointments be based on talent? (less politely, will he bin the nutters?) This will be the interesting one; the list of people he should ditch is long, and the question will be how much the politics pushes him to retain a few names that he shouldn't (such as Braverman)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.

    Hatchet burying is a difficult habit to acquire, when once one has got used to wielding it. Let's see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    mwadams said:

    The Bruges Group have given us the benefit of their wisdom:

    "Rishi Sunak was rejected overwhelmingly by Conservative Party Members mere weeks ago.

    MPs are about to crown him leader regardless.

    It’s a decision which will alienate activists (upon whom MPs rely to campaign on their behalf), with significant ramifications for the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1584531598858326016?s=20&t=sv8Fxix-__t7ERHS61szeA

    Obviously a subversive organization seeking to interfere in parliamentary democracy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946
    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    Hopefully "it's not going to happen so why worry about it".
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kinabalu said:

    I sense PB Tories recovering their ballast and brio. A sickening development.

    I think it’s great.

    It’s the hope that’ll crush The Herd.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,837
    edited October 2022

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Thing is, we (normal ex-Cons members) used up a lot of our relief once Boris left and Liz took over. Yes we knew she would be bad but quite how catastrophically bad how quickly took us a bit by surprise.

    As a result we are cautious about Rishi. Our loving the fact that Boris is no longer there has been watered down somewhat and our goodwill in less abundant supply.

    Let's see what Rishi does - he was a leaver for example but maybe he realises the damage that that did (or perhaps he didn't really believe it in the first place). Either way, we have yet to see his true colours.

    Can't speak for Scott, obvs.

    I would also say that it is fantastic having someone of Indian origin as PM of the UK. We should all take a moment to ponder that.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,250
    Meanwhile in the States



    Jesse Rodriguez

    @JesseRodriguez
    ·
    38m
    DOJ announces 1:30pmET news conference with AG Garland today. They say it's to discuss "significant national security cases addressing malign influence schemes and alleged criminal activity by a nation-state actor in the United States."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    mwadams said:

    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.

    Hatchet burying is a difficult habit to acquire, when once one has got used to wielding it. Let's see.
    As noted before on here, it depends where one buries it. For instance, if one is trying to dispose of one's opponent terminally politically.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    mwadams said:

    The Bruges Group have given us the benefit of their wisdom:

    "Rishi Sunak was rejected overwhelmingly by Conservative Party Members mere weeks ago.

    MPs are about to crown him leader regardless.

    It’s a decision which will alienate activists (upon whom MPs rely to campaign on their behalf), with significant ramifications for the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1584531598858326016?s=20&t=sv8Fxix-__t7ERHS61szeA

    And so it begins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    !! U.S. Justice Department says Attorney General Garland, senior DoJ officials to hold press conference on significant national security matter at 1:30 pm - Reuters

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1584541422317076480
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
    It really isn't. BBC journalists are supposed to be neutral.
    I remember Jeremy Clarkson on (old) Top Gear saying in 1997, "so you've all voted communist" and without sanction. BBC impartiality is an absolute crock- see my comment re: the Cenotaph.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
    That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.
    Oh, thanks - so College is in the sense of a boarding house where the scholars aka swots go? Not a reference to the school as a whole, including the other boarding houses? Now I understand.
    Yes. The school overall is Winchester College, but College on its own means the scholars house. It is at the heart of the original buildings. Inhabitants wear black gowns, and it is all very Hogwarts.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I feel a lot more comfortable with the current leadership than I gave for a while.

    Given my track record of backing the best losing candidate for election since Trump won the GOP primary it’s about bloody time!

  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    How prejudiced! :smile: What about scholars Richard Crossman and poker player Dominic Wells? Never forget that Oswald Mosley was a commoner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,459
    We almost have crossover on the next election / overall majority market:

    NOM 2.42
    Con maj 6.4
    Lab maj 2.38

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    DavidL said:

    The Tories have been making inroads into the Indian vote for a long time. Not surprising in that they are statistically better off than average and there is a high percentage of businessmen and professionals. But will Rishi bring seats in Leicester, Birmingham and Harrow into play?

    Harrow West moves to 'interesting' esp given locals this year
    Leicester East might be in play if Labour select as poorly as they did for the local by election 2 weeks ago and particularly if Webbe stands as an indy.
    Birmingham i know nothing about as opposed to my usual not much
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,252
    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    Agreed - Sunak has been made to look competent in comparison with Liz Truss. His track record is very dubious (eat out to help out, COVID lawbreaking, massive unfunded tax cuts promised earlier this year, and gaffes on non-doms & underfunded areas).

    I might be way off - but I was worried about Johnson from an electoral perspective. Sunak doesn't seem likely to have the same weird gravity defying electoral power.
  • TOPPING said:

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Thing is, we (normal ex-Cons members) used up a lot of our relief once Boris left and Liz took over. Yes we knew she would be bad but quite how catastrophically bad how quickly took us a bit by surprise.

    As a result we are cautious about Rishi. Our loving the fact that Boris is no longer there has been watered down somewhat and our goodwill in less abundant supply.

    Let's see what Rishi does - he was a leaver for example but maybe he realises the damage that that did (or perhaps he didn't really believe it in the first place). Either way, we have yet to see his true colours.

    Can't speak for Scott, obvs.

    I would also say that it is fantastic having someone of Indian origin as PM of the UK. We should all take a moment to ponder the enormity of that.
    Not quite what enormity means.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,933
    edited October 2022

    There's a sit-in protest by Greenpeace going on in Central Lobby right now

    Here's the moment it happened live on
    @SkyNews, while they were mid-interview with Rebecca Pow and Laura Farris

    A policeman then came over to try to stop them from filming


    https://twitter.com/eleanormia/status/1584549797674917889

    Anyone can go there whenever they like so I’d say it’s more of a “sit down” than a protest.
    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    Jonathan said:

    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
    I'm not celebrating as I'm not in the Conservative Party. I'm glad Boris and Truss are gone though.It is too early to judge Sunak anyway, we've got to see what he does.

    You are correct that Sunaks image of 'Mr Competent' is largely a product of the last leadership campaign. But before that, he was bought in by Cummings to serve Johnsons 'spraying money at things' economic agenda and disrupt the treasury orthodoxy. I think he will largely escape any reckoning for these decisions.

    It does pose a problem for Starmer though. He's going to have to do something better than just saying 'I will do what they are doing but better' . Unless Sunak bombs, Starmer needs a new strategy.
    Sunak might (to be proven) be better than Truss, but that does not make him competent. Truss may have pulled the trigger, but our economic weakness was built up on his watch.

    There will massive opportunities for Labour in the months to come as Rishi wrestles with the Tory mess. On the track record of the past year I am confident that Labour will grab them. They are doing opposition well.

    The 1990s presents a great model for Labour to follow.
    Yes and no. I think the media is bored and wants a come back narrative. I think it’ll pick on some of the less impressive Shadow Cabinet. New Labour circa ‘96, they are not.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,250
    mwadams said:

    The Bruges Group have given us the benefit of their wisdom:

    "Rishi Sunak was rejected overwhelmingly by Conservative Party Members mere weeks ago.

    MPs are about to crown him leader regardless.

    It’s a decision which will alienate activists (upon whom MPs rely to campaign on their behalf), with significant ramifications for the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1584531598858326016?s=20&t=sv8Fxix-__t7ERHS61szeA

    Rishi really needs to identify any MPs connected to this group and offer them an ultimatum - leave the Bruge Group or see the whip withdrawn
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855

    Got to feel for Penny Mordaunt. Looking like she'll have to wait until November to be Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1584521990198595584?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

    Quite possible that the next Conservative PM after Sunak isn't even in Parliament.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272
    eek said:

    Meanwhile in the States



    Jesse Rodriguez

    @JesseRodriguez
    ·
    38m
    DOJ announces 1:30pmET news conference with AG Garland today. They say it's to discuss "significant national security cases addressing malign influence schemes and alleged criminal activity by a nation-state actor in the United States."

    I’d be surprised if it’s anything to do with Trump because the DOJ has a rule to not do anything that could influence elections this close to the vote .

    It would have to be something remarkable to involve Trump .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    I think the risk of malcontented ERGers and Trussites is a bit overblown. My sense is that Rishi’s coronation is broadly welcomed across factional divides.

    I’m a Rishi skeptic, but I appreciate he was/is the best of a bad lot.

    His first test will be Cabinet.

    If he rewards talentless but early supporters like Williamson and Raab, and fails to deal with toxic Rees-Mogg and Braverman, it will be a bad sign.

    If he tries to eject Hunt, ditto.

    Hunt is untouchable right now. That will not always be the case but it is right now. And he came out in favour of Rishi last night.
    Penny has overplayed her hand a tad and been made to look just a bit silly today but Sunak would be wise to let that pass and offer her something decent. What we need is the exact opposite of the Truss cabinet which was a narrow faction (of loons). Sunak needs to bring the whole party together as much as he can. This will probably mean the odd loon hanging on but its a price worth paying for a stable government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Standard approaches will prevail.
    kinabalu said:

    I sense PB Tories recovering their ballast and brio. A sickening development.

    Some. But they're still in a very difficult place.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_JS said:

    We almost have crossover on the next election / overall majority market:

    NOM 2.42
    Con maj 6.4
    Lab maj 2.38

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195

    Poor old FUDHY. He’ll have to script some new gobbledegook to copy n paste now that Mr Starmer is no longer the saviour of his precious ring Union.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,837

    TOPPING said:

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Thing is, we (normal ex-Cons members) used up a lot of our relief once Boris left and Liz took over. Yes we knew she would be bad but quite how catastrophically bad how quickly took us a bit by surprise.

    As a result we are cautious about Rishi. Our loving the fact that Boris is no longer there has been watered down somewhat and our goodwill in less abundant supply.

    Let's see what Rishi does - he was a leaver for example but maybe he realises the damage that that did (or perhaps he didn't really believe it in the first place). Either way, we have yet to see his true colours.

    Can't speak for Scott, obvs.

    I would also say that it is fantastic having someone of Indian origin as PM of the UK. We should all take a moment to ponder the enormity of that.
    Not quite what enormity means.
    LOL thanks!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    !! U.S. Justice Department says Attorney General Garland, senior DoJ officials to hold press conference on significant national security matter at 1:30 pm - Reuters

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1584541422317076480

    Mid Terms in a fortnight, look squirrel!

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    The Bruges Group have given us the benefit of their wisdom:

    "Rishi Sunak was rejected overwhelmingly by Conservative Party Members mere weeks ago.

    MPs are about to crown him leader regardless.

    It’s a decision which will alienate activists (upon whom MPs rely to campaign on their behalf), with significant ramifications for the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1584531598858326016?s=20&t=sv8Fxix-__t7ERHS61szeA

    Rishi really needs to identify any MPs connected to this group and offer them an ultimatum - leave the Bruge Group or see the whip withdrawn
    Popcorn order submitted.

    Boy, I’m gonna enjoy this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    TOPPING said:

    Is @Scott_xP voting Tory again yet?

    Thing is, we (normal ex-Cons members) used up a lot of our relief once Boris left and Liz took over. Yes we knew she would be bad but quite how catastrophically bad how quickly took us a bit by surprise.

    As a result we are cautious about Rishi. Our loving the fact that Boris is no longer there has been watered down somewhat and our goodwill in less abundant supply.

    Let's see what Rishi does - he was a leaver for example but maybe he realises the damage that that did (or perhaps he didn't really believe it in the first place). Either way, we have yet to see his true colours.

    Can't speak for Scott, obvs.

    I would also say that it is fantastic having someone of Indian origin as PM of the UK. We should all take a moment to ponder the enormity of that.
    Not quite what enormity means.
    The increase of ethnic minority mps in the last 20 years has been astonishing.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Medvedev going for the full Nazi look now.

    Major sartorial escalation from Medvedev, who visited the Uralvagonzavod tank factory in this leather trench coat

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1584552400316420101
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,459

    DavidL said:

    The Tories have been making inroads into the Indian vote for a long time. Not surprising in that they are statistically better off than average and there is a high percentage of businessmen and professionals. But will Rishi bring seats in Leicester, Birmingham and Harrow into play?

    Harrow West moves to 'interesting' esp given locals this year
    Leicester East might be in play if Labour select as poorly as they did for the local by election 2 weeks ago and particularly if Webbe stands as an indy.
    Birmingham i know nothing about as opposed to my usual not much
    The most Hindu seat in Birmingham is Perry Barr IIRC.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    Nigelb said:

    Got to feel for Penny Mordaunt. Looking like she'll have to wait until November to be Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1584521990198595584?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

    Quite possible that the next Conservative PM after Sunak isn't even in Parliament.
    You are anticipating a couple of Con. election victories then?
  • Not sure it's wise to have all these MPs and aides gathered on the steps of CCHQ waiting to acclaim their new leader/PM.

    There's a chance the public see a bunch of MPs skipping work and congratulating themselves on doing a good job even though they crashed the economy...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161
    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    I didn’t try for the Winchester scholarship. Doesn’t change how bright I am one little bit.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,448
    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    How prejudiced! :smile: What about scholars Richard Crossman and poker player Dominic Wells? Never forget that Oswald Mosley was a commoner.
    Mosley is more than counterbalanced by Whitelaw, Howe, Cripps and Gaitskell on the good egg commoner politicians I hope.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,933
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Got to feel for Penny Mordaunt. Looking like she'll have to wait until November to be Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1584521990198595584?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

    Quite possible that the next Conservative PM after Sunak isn't even in Parliament.
    Yup. If you’re young, politically ambitious, and ideologically flexible, join the Tory Party ready for 10-15 years time.
  • !! U.S. Justice Department says Attorney General Garland, senior DoJ officials to hold press conference on significant national security matter at 1:30 pm - Reuters

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1584541422317076480

    Somehow doubt that topic of DOJ press conference is the Puerto RIco alleged official corruption and illegal campaign contribution scandal, involving former PB governor, expat Venezuelan banker AND Liz Truss's chief of staff Mark Fullbrook

    GOOD NEWS for Fullbrook, seeing has how he's gonna be having LOT more time on his hands, so that he can cooperate (if that's the right word) with DOJ and FBI even more fully, to assist (ditto) with their criminal investigation.

    Of course, that's also the BAD NEWS for Fullbrook.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    To fix the economy he has to revise his view of the EU. EEA, EFTA?

    He also has a mountain to climb in terms of tax and spend, not only as a result of Kwarteng's errors but also his own.

    I am happy to wish him well, but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver, I won't be voting for him.
    "but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver". Sunak, not me. A very unclear statement for which I apologise.
    I think we all know you well enough that we realise you are neither a fiscal conservative or a Leaver

    But thank you for apologising to the House and correcting the record

  • mwadams said:

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
    Twitter is absolutely chockablock with that kind of frustrated frothing. It remains to be seen how many are actually members, and how many follow through.
    See you survived your Night at the Museum. Did Teddy Roosevelt make an appearance?
  • ping said:

    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.

    They're OK, similar in taste to Burger King's Plant-based Whopper. Wendy's Veggie Stack is different, perhaps better tasting.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ping said:

    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.

    Most 'plant based' stuff is heavily processed unhealthy shit. Its a massive con
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    Ridiculous over reaction by the BBC. They could have just said she’s been reminded about the impartiality rules and warned and left it at that . The BBC are clearly terrified of the Tories and their mission to destroy the organization.
    It really isn't. BBC journalists are supposed to be neutral.
    I remember Jeremy Clarkson on (old) Top Gear saying in 1997, "so you've all voted communist" and without sanction. BBC impartiality is an absolute crock- see my comment re: the Cenotaph.
    There needs to be a distinction between newspeople and non-newspeople. Obviously Croxall made a mistake but I wouldn't drag her over hot coals. The main thing is we maintain the culture of the BBC having sober presenters and not going down the Tucker Carlson route.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
    That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.
    Oh, thanks - so College is in the sense of a boarding house where the scholars aka swots go? Not a reference to the school as a whole, including the other boarding houses? Now I understand.
    Yes. The school overall is Winchester College, but College on its own means the scholars house. It is at the heart of the original buildings. Inhabitants wear black gowns, and it is all very Hogwarts.
    I can imagine that that might have helped the school retain some intellectual culture and Oxbridge entrance and finals stats in the decades when the pecking order in the post-Arnoldian "public" schools and whether you could go around with one fly button undone etc. was defined on how many runs/wickets you got for the First XI against Haileybury and so on. But it does seem an odd custom to retain in the more modern era, especially if one wants the sprogs to get on with a slightly more mixed assortment of people.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    Sense PB Tories recovering their ballast and brio. A sickening sight.

    They have an extremely bumpy ride between now and the assumed next election landslide.

    At least it won't be Johnson, which gives me great comfort.
    Yes, allelujah to that aspect. Never Again, I hope, is what enough people feel now about Him.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    I have been monitoring the below the line comments on The Spectator for a while – call it research – and noticed over past months an uptick in racist dog whistles 1/7

    https://twitter.com/chedwardes/status/1584508048537550848?s=46&t=7RE56skczd2vb2Y1_ovcfg
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,855
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Got to feel for Penny Mordaunt. Looking like she'll have to wait until November to be Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1584521990198595584?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

    Quite possible that the next Conservative PM after Sunak isn't even in Parliament.
    You are anticipating a couple of Con. election victories then?
    In 2045, perhaps.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    mwadams said:

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
    Twitter is absolutely chockablock with that kind of frustrated frothing. It remains to be seen how many are actually members, and how many follow through.
    See you survived your Night at the Museum. Did Teddy Roosevelt make an appearance?
    No, but we had a visitation from both Nefertiti and Akhenaten. (I thoroughly recommend it, BTW, if you have kids.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,258

    ping said:

    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.

    Most 'plant based' stuff is heavily processed unhealthy shit. Its a massive con
    This is my favourite alternative, though you do have to make it yourself. But then, homemade beefburgers are also generally better than commercially available options.

    https://supervalu.ie/recipes/vegan-mushroom-and-hazelnut-burgers
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    edited October 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    We almost have crossover on the next election / overall majority market:

    NOM 2.42
    Con maj 6.4
    Lab maj 2.38

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195

    Poor old FUDHY. He’ll have to script some new gobbledegook to copy n paste now that Mr Starmer is no longer the saviour of his precious ring Union.
    Must say I haven't quite processed the implications for Scotland - given the four parties involved in practice, five at Holyrood. I think I need to see a few more policies from Mr S [edit] and his minder first.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,837
    edited October 2022
    Who would have thought that PB was such a hotbed of Wykehamists.

    It was always the school where bright people go. You don't hear about it so much these days (this from my nieces and nephews) so presumably still as rarefied and selective as it ever was.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    ping said:

    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.

    Most 'plant based' stuff is heavily processed unhealthy shit. Its a massive con
    Thing I don't understand is why a vegetarian/vegan would want to eat fake meat when there's so much proper vegetarian/vegan food available.
  • Meanwhile, Microsoft Teams hasn't got any better...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We almost have crossover on the next election / overall majority market:

    NOM 2.42
    Con maj 6.4
    Lab maj 2.38

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195

    Poor old FUDHY. He’ll have to script some new gobbledegook to copy n paste now that Mr Starmer is no longer the saviour of his precious ring Union.
    Must say I haven't quite processed the implications for Scotland - given the four parties involved in practice, five at Holyrood. I think I need to see a few more policies from Mr S [edit] and his minder first.
    He has a minder?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    ping said:

    Just had a “McPlant” for the first time.

    Not impressed. If you’re tempted, I wouldn’t bother.

    There is much better/tastier/healthier vegetarian/vegan food out there.

    Not even worth the £1.39 I paid for it. Normal price nearer £4.

    Processed shite.

    Most 'plant based' stuff is heavily processed unhealthy shit. Its a massive con
    This is my favourite alternative, though you do have to make it yourself. But then, homemade beefburgers are also generally better than commercially available options.

    https://supervalu.ie/recipes/vegan-mushroom-and-hazelnut-burgers
    Thanks. That actually looks quite nice. I may try making those burgers.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272

    I think Labour really need to avoid the “Rishi is loaded and doesn’t care about you” angle.

    Whenever Labour have tried to attack Tory PMs for their apparent wealth and privilege it has backfired. I don’t think it’s a good look.

    Attack him on policy. There’s plenty they can go on.

    The word cloud shown earlier suggest the public think this already .

    Johnson seemed to dupe many into falling for his man of the people guff . I don’t see Sunak managing this . I suspect he’ll really help the Tories in the south but the infamous red wall will be much more difficult .
  • mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
    Twitter is absolutely chockablock with that kind of frustrated frothing. It remains to be seen how many are actually members, and how many follow through.
    See you survived your Night at the Museum. Did Teddy Roosevelt make an appearance?
    No, but we had a visitation from both Nefertiti and Akhenaten. (I thoroughly recommend it, BTW, if you have kids.)
    Did you get a visitation from George Osborne as well?
This discussion has been closed.