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Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

Thoughts and prayers for the ghost of Enoch Powell. https://t.co/TwCjZwKdbR

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,144
    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 24
    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    I can muster up dome Krug, but not vintage 😪
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,546
    philiph said:

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    I can muster up dome Krug, but not vintage 😪
    That will certainly pass muster!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    An alcoholic and two ladies, now that is quite diverse.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    The Tory party has finally begun the task of winning back my vote and getting me out canvassing in two years. Hopefully Rishi delivers a dose of realism over the next week followed by Hunt laying out where we stand as a nation and what steps we all need to take to get to where we want to be 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I’d reserve judgement because you haven’t seen his cabinet and no one knows what he’ll do re the EU. I really hope we’ll see some pragmatism . Nothing will get me to vote Tory however !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    In the words of Neil Kinnock (after Brown's Coronation) "you have your party back" :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 24
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    Okay, elected leaders. :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    edited October 24

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    To fix the economy he has to revise his view of the EU. EEA, EFTA?

    He also has a mountain to climb in terms of tax and spend, not only as a result of Kwarteng's errors but also his own.

    I am happy to wish him well, but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver, I won't be voting for him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 24
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    Okay, elected leaders. :smile:
    Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

    Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,546

    Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

    Well, he went to Lincoln College. You can't get much more diverse than that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,367

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    JohnO and myself are celebrating in Claridge’s tomorrow.
    Isn't Claridges JRM's eaterie of choice? I fear you have just doxxed yourself.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 24

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    Okay, elected leaders. :smile:
    Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

    Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.
    FFS!

    Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    - ”If Boris Johnson’s supporters belittle Sunak and his premiership then this will end in tears.”

    That’s nailed on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    Okay, elected leaders. :smile:
    Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

    Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.
    FFS!

    Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.
    Ok, accepted :smile:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    The prospect of Rishi Sunak being named as the UK’s first British-Asian prime minister today has been headline news in India’s media

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1584522877520400386
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Rishi Sunak ignores all questions from the press and marches off after leaving the 1922 Committee.

    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1584540978710745088?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg
  • Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695

    Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

    Well, he went to Lincoln College. You can't get much more diverse than that.
    My sister went to Lincoln. It seemed quite a party central, under the radar kind of place. But of course in those days diversity was not a thing.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 517
    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,366

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    JohnO and myself are celebrating in Claridge’s tomorrow.
    Claridges is opposite my old office. Through a series of mergers I’ve ended up so far into Aldgate that I’m technically in Whitechapel. Mayfair to Whitechapel - wrong way round the Monopoly board.
  • Rishi Sunak ignores all questions from the press and marches off after leaving the 1922 Committee.

    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1584540978710745088?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

    Good on him
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    edited October 24

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    To fix the economy he has to revise his view of the EU. EEA, EFTA?

    He also has a mountain to climb in terms of tax and spend, not only as a result of Kwarteng's errors but also his own.

    I am happy to wish him well, but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver, I won't be voting for him.
    "but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver". Sunak, not me. A very unclear statement for which I apologise.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    Okay, elected leaders. :smile:
    Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

    Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.
    FFS!

    Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.
    Ok, accepted :smile:
    Actually, it's amusing to think that Truss spent less time as Tory leader than Beckett or Harman spent as Labour leader.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 517
    nico679 said:

    Whatever side you’re on I do think it’s a very positive image for the country to have the first PM of Indian heritage and a practicing Hindu.

    Personally I think the idea of reincarnation is sh*te.

    What I like about Sunak is that he is vegetarian. Let's hope he tries to tighten up laws against cruelty to animals. More power to his elbow if he does.
  • Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    The King will be travelling to London this afternoon, as previously planned, from Sandringham Estate, it is understood

    But it is unlikely Charles will host audiences at Buckingham Palace on Monday to accept the resignation of outgoing PM @trussliz and appoint @RishiSunak


    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1584538657725161472
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Be careful. That was what Truss thought.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited October 24
    Interesting for Indians too that Rishi's ascent comes on the day of DIvaii, the day of the festival of lights.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DJ41 said:

    nico679 said:

    Whatever side you’re on I do think it’s a very positive image for the country to have the first PM of Indian heritage and a practicing Hindu.

    Personally I think the idea of reincarnation is sh*te.

    What I like about Sunak is that he is vegetarian. Let's hope he tries to tighten up laws against cruelty to animals. More power to his elbow if he does.
    There are already mainly adequate laws in existence and to eat animals is not to be cruel to them. The biggest existing issue is halal slaughter and he is a bit hampered from going after that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    bf now paid out on Rishi tyvm.

    Better had it been Baker but I'll take it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Gilt yields have dropped another ~20bp today, for those of us keeping score that means out of the 1.2% risk premium that was being asked at the peak of the Truss/Kwarteng fuck up, we've managed to claw back 0.8%, Monday's statement will likely claw back the remainder assuming it shows debt falling within 3 years and tax take falling within 5.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    I'm on the Next PM after Liz Truss market on Betfair

    I presume they won't pay out until after Rishi kisses hands with KCIII
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    GIN1138 said:

    I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

    In the words of Neil Kinnock (after Brown's Coronation) "you have your party back" :D
    Wasn’t that after EdM’s election as leader?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
    Twitter is absolutely chockablock with that kind of frustrated frothing. It remains to be seen how many are actually members, and how many follow through.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864

    Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

    Ah , the LibDems ....

    Do remind us of Ed Davey's school & university :)

    Ah, yes. I recollect. Another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford ....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

    Excellent point and indeed the way that we should all be looking at this. The fact that he is also from an ethnic minority is, and should be, incidental.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Be careful. That was what Truss thought.
    She made an error by withholding (or they didn't know) an integral part of the process ie how it would affect spending.

    Rishi can easily avoid this rookie error.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 517
    edited October 24

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    A big question is whether the money that backed UKIP and the whole Brexit nonsense will get pumped into the said populist right, with "populist" being one way of spelling "racist". Nigel Farage is yesterday's man, at least as far as a senior leadership position is concerned. An alliance between extreme xenophobic mouth-foamer peers and football crew types is indicated. It could well be that the leader (the political leader behind the microphone and doing the interviews) is yet to emerge.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 24

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

    Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.
    The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre
    Do you think that is what explains HY's absence?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    edited October 24
    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    His record at the Treasury was not one of being open and honest. The intent to cut income tax with the money raised by increasing national insurance was directly contrary to that principle.

    Now, who knows, perhaps the last few weeks have shocked him as much as the rest of us, and he will be a very different PM than Chancellor, but I have my doubts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    edited October 24
    Congratulations @RishiSunak on being appointed as Leader of the Conservative Party and our next Prime Minister.

    You have my full support.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1584545601177686016
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    nico679 said:

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I’d reserve judgement because you haven’t seen his cabinet and no one knows what he’ll do re the EU. I really hope we’ll see some pragmatism . Nothing will get me to vote Tory however !
    I'm genuinely pleased for all the PB Tories
    feeling this is the start of the road back. I think we have someone who will take public administration seriously and will start tackling the breadth of challenges facing Britain. That is the lowest of low bars, the faintest of faint praise, but will be more than was managed in any of the last 12 years.

    I hope public services get a look in, organising and running them properly is the core of a government in a decent society. Show me how these can be organised, scoped and run in a good value and efficient way in an eventual low tax society rather than just salami sliced and efficiency saved to death whilst barely seeming to comprehend that is even what is happening. Show me how a lightly but well regulated society can effectively champion the average person's rights and protect dignity.

    I'm a higher tax Scandi Social Democrat by instinct, I'm sceptical of the claim, I'm sceptical of where the shining beacon example showing that this type of philosophy works actually is. But I will give some respect for a serious coherent government setting on the path to doing so.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    He did try to start along those lines during the first contest; much good it did him.

    I agree that it's really the only strategy that you can see turning things around, in the medium term. Except that he'll have trouble with the honesty when it gets to Brexit.

    I reckon he'll get a decent enough bounce in the polls and Labour's lead will be much narrower - at least until the budget.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    It may have felt like the system was failing in Britain over the past year. But actually with hindsight we can see the system worked: despite a large majority two incompetent prime ministers were ejected and the cabinet member seen as the most competent installed.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584545406540972032
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Good luck with the mortgage and inflation rises, the repossessed houses and cars, and the enormous service cuts that are on the way.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    edited October 24
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.
    That requires a very drastic change in some fashion imo - the collapse of the EU vindicating brexit, the UK being the only G7 not to go into recession, a fracture and split in Labour etc etc
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Security guy tried to stop sky news mid broadcast!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    While I expect a honeymoon poll bounce, in the medium term the ‘Tory Mortgage Premium’ is likely to resonate. I think Sunak/ Hunt will take the Tories back from the brink but I’d still expect SKS to be the next PM.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

    The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

    If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    edited October 24

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited October 24
    darkage said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean this could be enormous.

    Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

    If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

    Big if.

    Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

    Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.
    This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.
    Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

    What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    edited October 24

    It may have felt like the system was failing in Britain over the past year. But actually with hindsight we can see the system worked: despite a large majority two incompetent prime ministers were ejected and the cabinet member seen as the most competent installed.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584545406540972032

    On reflection I think this comment is a bit premature. We've got to wait a few months to see what Sunak actually does, how he handles certain issues, before that conclusion can be reached. But certainly he is right about Truss. She was useless and got removed, this is evidence of an effective political system that can respond to events.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,546
    edited October 24
    148grss said:


    I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.

    He's certainly a huge problem, not only because of the economic mess but also because the party ructions haven't gone away. Levelling up is not going to happen anytime soon - it was a meaningless bit of Boris boosterism without any policy substance behind it, and even if the policy substance were there it would take years to show results. What makes it even more difficult is that the red wall voters Boris won over seem to want things which are directly inimical to levelling up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    You'd think so — but we'll see what happens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    edited October 24
    Scott_xP said:

    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

    Whatever can he mean?

    A look at the chap's party website offers some hints, such as a reference to Our Island Story (capitalised). "Rural Conservatism is about a deep and atavistic connection to the soil beneath our feet and to the ancestors whose footprints we now walk in." I don't think they like [edit] mass immigration, either.

    https://www.ruralconservatives.org/beliefs
  • Scott_xP said:

    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

    Go and join Reform UK or Farage then
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Congratulations Sunak. Hope he can do a good job. 👍

    I echo that sentiment. On to the next thing!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

    I'm grinning a lot at this, is that inappropriate, am i allowed to be grinning this much? Well i am.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
    That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
    Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction
    I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

    The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

    If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.
    It is not when the War ends, so much as when the economic restructuring around sanctions on Russia are fully absorbed. Those sanctions (and the need to remove the dependency on Russian energy) *will not* end with the end of the war.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,096
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
    That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.
    Oh, thanks - so College is in the sense of a boarding house where the scholars aka swots go? Not a reference to the school as a whole, including the other boarding houses? Now I understand.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

    I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time
    Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.
    England: 200 to 250
    Scotland: zilch
    Wales: zilch
    N Ireland: zilch

    The party of the Union. Ho ho.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    This will create a huge amount of interest in the most populous country in the world. Difficult to quantify the soft power effect but it shouldn't be overlooked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    I can see the Tories back in the low 30s pretty quickly but that is still quite a long way behind and people will not forget the shambles of 2022 from January until today.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

    Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.
    34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.
    I specifically noted the "honeymoon bounce". I just don't see incumbency being Sunak's friend with the economic picture and how it is looking over the next couple of years.

    Quite a few hubristic Conservatives are already doing victory laps on here and in media interviews.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    This will create a huge amount of interest in the most populous country in the world. Difficult to quantify the soft power effect but it shouldn't be overlooked.

    Also in the broader diaspora, particularly in the USA.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?

    The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.
    Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

    When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.
    Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

    (Also, does it include Attlee?)
    Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).
    The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

    I know in reality they were not, but...
    I'm not sure Truss even counts as an "acting leader", unless that includes getting out her mums wardrobe and playing....
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DJ41 said:

    boulay said:

    DJ41 said:

    Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

    He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

    Questions include

    1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

    2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? :smile: )

    3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)


    You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.
    Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.
    Why would X score a scholarship but only
    plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?
    If you take a scholarship you were bound to be in College with all the other scholars which is fine if you are a fan of Hogwarts populated by super-brains with no common sense so some boys/parents would turn down the scholarship and ensure they were in commoner houses with slightly less weird peers.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Bye bye Alister Jack.

    Bye bye Douglas Ross.

    Will that Welsh Tory twat survive?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,644
    Congrats to Rishi Rich!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

    Whatever can he mean?

    A look at the chap's party website offers some hints, such as a reference to Our Island Story (capitalised). "Rural Conservatism is about a deep and atavistic connection to the soil beneath our feet and to the ancestors whose footprints we now walk in." I don't think they like [edit] mass immigration, either.

    https://www.ruralconservatives.org/beliefs
    Is he local?
This discussion has been closed.