Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

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Mordaunt didn’t have the numbers – politicalbetting.com

Thoughts and prayers for the ghost of Enoch Powell. https://t.co/TwCjZwKdbR

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Richard_Nabavi

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

tlg86

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

BartholomewRoberts

Congratulations Sunak. Hope he can do a good job. 👍

Nigel_Foremain

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

philiph

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

I can muster up dome Krug, but not vintage 😪

Richard_Nabavi

philiph said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

I can muster up dome Krug, but not vintage 😪

That will certainly pass muster!

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

An alcoholic and two ladies, now that is quite diverse.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

An alcoholic and two ladies, now that is quite diverse.

Sounds like @SeanT having a night out when you put it that way!

MaxPB

The Tory party has finally begun the task of winning back my vote and getting me out canvassing in two years. Hopefully Rishi delivers a dose of realism over the next week followed by Hunt laying out where we stand as a nation and what steps we all need to take to get to where we want to be 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

nico679

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I’d reserve judgement because you haven’t seen his cabinet and no one knows what he’ll do re the EU. I really hope we’ll see some pragmatism . Nothing will get me to vote Tory however !

GIN1138

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

In the words of Neil Kinnock (after Brown's Coronation) "you have your party back"

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

JohnO and myself are celebrating in Claridge’s tomorrow.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

Okay, elected leaders.

El_Capitano

Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

Mexicanpete

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

To fix the economy he has to revise his view of the EU. EEA, EFTA?

He also has a mountain to climb in terms of tax and spend, not only as a result of Kwarteng's errors but also his own.

I am happy to wish him well, but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver, I won't be voting for him.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

Okay, elected leaders.

Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.

Richard_Nabavi

El_Capitano said:

Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

Well, he went to Lincoln College. You can't get much more diverse than that.

DecrepiterJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

JohnO and myself are celebrating in Claridge’s tomorrow.

Isn't Claridges JRM's eaterie of choice? I fear you have just doxxed yourself.

wooliedyed

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

CarlottaVance

Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

Okay, elected leaders.

Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.

FFS!

Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.

TOPPING

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

StuartDickson

- ”If Boris Johnson’s supporters belittle Sunak and his premiership then this will end in tears.”

That’s nailed on.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

Okay, elected leaders.

Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.

FFS!

Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.

Ok, accepted

CarlottaVance

The prospect of Rishi Sunak being named as the UK’s first British-Asian prime minister today has been headline news in India’s media

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1584522877520400386

StuartDickson

Rishi Sunak ignores all questions from the press and marches off after leaving the 1922 Committee.

https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1584540978710745088?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

Peter_the_Punter

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

El_Capitano said:

Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

Well, he went to Lincoln College. You can't get much more diverse than that.

My sister went to Lincoln. It seemed quite a party central, under the radar kind of place. But of course in those days diversity was not a thing.

DJ41

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Mexicanpete

CarlottaVance said:

Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.

StuartDickson

Got to feel for Penny Mordaunt. Looking like she'll have to wait until November to be Prime Minister

https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1584521990198595584?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

MaxPB

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

What I'd like to see more than anything else is grown up government and facing up to the truth of where we are as a nation.

DougSeal

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

JohnO and myself are celebrating in Claridge’s tomorrow.

Claridges is opposite my old office. Through a series of mergers I’ve ended up so far into Aldgate that I’m technically in Whitechapel. Mayfair to Whitechapel - wrong way round the Monopoly board.

Big_G_NorthWales

StuartDickson said:

Rishi Sunak ignores all questions from the press and marches off after leaving the 1922 Committee.

https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1584540978710745088?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg

Good on him

Mexicanpete

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

To fix the economy he has to revise his view of the EU. EEA, EFTA?

He also has a mountain to climb in terms of tax and spend, not only as a result of Kwarteng's errors but also his own.

I am happy to wish him well, but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver, I won't be voting for him.

"but as a fiscal conservative (OK by reputation, but not by example) and a Leaver". Sunak, not me. A very unclear statement for which I apologise.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

Okay, elected leaders.

Deputy leaders in Labour are elected...

Edit - and until 1965 Tory leaders were not, of course.

FFS!

Elected leader in their own right / anointed in a smoke filled room.

Ok, accepted

Actually, it's amusing to think that Truss spent less time as Tory leader than Beckett or Harman spent as Labour leader.

DJ41

nico679 said:

Whatever side you’re on I do think it’s a very positive image for the country to have the first PM of Indian heritage and a practicing Hindu.

Personally I think the idea of reincarnation is sh*te.

What I like about Sunak is that he is vegetarian. Let's hope he tries to tighten up laws against cruelty to animals. More power to his elbow if he does.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.

The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre

CarlottaVance

The King will be travelling to London this afternoon, as previously planned, from Sandringham Estate, it is understood

But it is unlikely Charles will host audiences at Buckingham Palace on Monday to accept the resignation of outgoing PM @trussliz and appoint @RishiSunak

https://twitter.com/PA/status/1584538657725161472

Jonathan

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Be careful. That was what Truss thought.

WhisperingOracle

Interesting for Indians too that Rishi's ascent comes on the day of DIvaii, the day of the festival of lights.

Ishmael_Z

DJ41 said:

nico679 said:

Whatever side you’re on I do think it’s a very positive image for the country to have the first PM of Indian heritage and a practicing Hindu.

Personally I think the idea of reincarnation is sh*te.

What I like about Sunak is that he is vegetarian. Let's hope he tries to tighten up laws against cruelty to animals. More power to his elbow if he does.

There are already mainly adequate laws in existence and to eat animals is not to be cruel to them. The biggest existing issue is halal slaughter and he is a bit hampered from going after that.

TOPPING

bf now paid out on Rishi tyvm.

Better had it been Baker but I'll take it.

MaxPB

Gilt yields have dropped another ~20bp today, for those of us keeping score that means out of the 1.2% risk premium that was being asked at the peak of the Truss/Kwarteng fuck up, we've managed to claw back 0.8%, Monday's statement will likely claw back the remainder assuming it shows debt falling within 3 years and tax take falling within 5.

Ishmael_Z

DJ41 said:

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.

Casino_Royale

I'm on the Next PM after Liz Truss market on Betfair

I presume they won't pay out until after Rishi kisses hands with KCIII

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

ThomasNashe

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think one may legitimately now open the vintage champagne which was awaiting the end of the Boris premiership, but which had to be kept in the cellar in view of the Truss premiership.

In the words of Neil Kinnock (after Brown's Coronation) "you have your party back"

Wasn’t that after EdM’s election as leader?

mwadams

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.

The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre

Twitter is absolutely chockablock with that kind of frustrated frothing. It remains to be seen how many are actually members, and how many follow through.

YBarddCwsc

El_Capitano said:

Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

Ah , the LibDems ....

Do remind us of Ed Davey's school & university

Ah, yes. I recollect. Another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford ....

DavidL

El_Capitano said:

Congratulations to the Conservatives on displaying their commitment to diversity by electing, er, another privately educated leader who did PPE at Oxford.

Excellent point and indeed the way that we should all be looking at this. The fact that he is also from an ethnic minority is, and should be, incidental.

TOPPING

Jonathan said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Be careful. That was what Truss thought.

She made an error by withholding (or they didn't know) an integral part of the process ie how it would affect spending.

Rishi can easily avoid this rookie error.

DJ41

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

A big question is whether the money that backed UKIP and the whole Brexit nonsense will get pumped into the said populist right, with "populist" being one way of spelling "racist". Nigel Farage is yesterday's man, at least as far as a senior leadership position is concerned. An alliance between extreme xenophobic mouth-foamer peers and football crew types is indicated. It could well be that the leader (the political leader behind the microphone and doing the interviews) is yet to emerge.

Andy_JS

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

wooliedyed

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

Enormous goodwill for Rishi Sunak coming out of the room. Charles Walker says: “If last Wed was a low point in politics, this was a high point.” MPs said he made a point of thanking and being gracious to all his predecessors (a marked contrast to Truss)

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1584541614118051840

Not so much with the Tory member vox poppers on 5live.

The membership needs to go and join ReformUK or Farage while the party moves to the centre

Do you think that is what explains HY's absence?

LostPassword

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

His record at the Treasury was not one of being open and honest. The intent to cut income tax with the money raised by increasing national insurance was directly contrary to that principle.

Now, who knows, perhaps the last few weeks have shocked him as much as the rest of us, and he will be a very different PM than Chancellor, but I have my doubts.

CarlottaVance

Congratulations @RishiSunak on being appointed as Leader of the Conservative Party and our next Prime Minister.

You have my full support.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1584545601177686016

Pro_Rata

nico679 said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I’d reserve judgement because you haven’t seen his cabinet and no one knows what he’ll do re the EU. I really hope we’ll see some pragmatism . Nothing will get me to vote Tory however !

I'm genuinely pleased for all the PB Tories
feeling this is the start of the road back. I think we have someone who will take public administration seriously and will start tackling the breadth of challenges facing Britain. That is the lowest of low bars, the faintest of faint praise, but will be more than was managed in any of the last 12 years.

I hope public services get a look in, organising and running them properly is the core of a government in a decent society. Show me how these can be organised, scoped and run in a good value and efficient way in an eventual low tax society rather than just salami sliced and efficiency saved to death whilst barely seeming to comprehend that is even what is happening. Show me how a lightly but well regulated society can effectively champion the average person's rights and protect dignity.

I'm a higher tax Scandi Social Democrat by instinct, I'm sceptical of the claim, I'm sceptical of where the shining beacon example showing that this type of philosophy works actually is. But I will give some respect for a serious coherent government setting on the path to doing so.

ozymandias

wooliedyed said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction

The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.

Mexicanpete

Andy_JS said:

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.

148grss

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.

darkage

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.

IanB2

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

He did try to start along those lines during the first contest; much good it did him.

I agree that it's really the only strategy that you can see turning things around, in the medium term. Except that he'll have trouble with the honesty when it gets to Brexit.

I reckon he'll get a decent enough bounce in the polls and Labour's lead will be much narrower - at least until the budget.

CarlottaVance

It may have felt like the system was failing in Britain over the past year. But actually with hindsight we can see the system worked: despite a large majority two incompetent prime ministers were ejected and the cabinet member seen as the most competent installed.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584545406540972032

Scott_xP

Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

Mexicanpete

darkage said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.

Good luck with the mortgage and inflation rises, the repossessed houses and cars, and the enormous service cuts that are on the way.

Carnyx

Ishmael_Z said:

DJ41 said:

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.

Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?

wooliedyed

ozymandias said:

wooliedyed said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

Somewhere between smsll/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction

The alternative is that Sunak wins a 100+ majority. Everything or nothing may change in two years.

That requires a very drastic change in some fashion imo - the collapse of the EU vindicating brexit, the UK being the only G7 not to go into recession, a fracture and split in Labour etc etc

Slackbladder

Security guy tried to stop sky news mid broadcast!

CarlottaVance

BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

ThomasNashe

darkage said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.

While I expect a honeymoon poll bounce, in the medium term the ‘Tory Mortgage Premium’ is likely to resonate. I think Sunak/ Hunt will take the Tories back from the brink but I’d still expect SKS to be the next PM.

YBarddCwsc

wooliedyed said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction

I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.

biggles

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.

34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.

Jonathan

darkage said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I mean this could be enormous.

Imagine he was an honest PM telling people what no other PM or politician has dared to tell thej. All the never never, life on tick, what goes up must come down.

If he thinks he has nothing (bar the next GE) to lose and he might as well go out on his shield then this might transform British politics.

Big if.

Even in purely electoral terms, by far his best strategy is to be honest with voters and not try to pretend that it's going to be a pleasant ride. Presumably he'll keep Hunt as Chancellor, which will be good because Hunt is not only very sensible but also has an excellent bedside manner. The message and tone need to be much like those Osborne did so well in 2010.

Of course Labour will be arguing that the mess is a Conservative mess, and they'll have a good point, but it's a point which they may overdo, given that everyone knows it's not just a Conservative mess. Labour's most important task is to look and sound credible. It's too easy for them to fall back into their comfort zone of attacking evil Tories, which is a waste of time because it's taken for granted by their own core supporters and not very convincing for floating voters. When it comes to the GE, if Labour disappoint it won't be because of insufficient unpopularity of the Tories, it will be because of insufficient conviction that Labour are a credible alternative.

This is a bad day for Labour, because the success of Starmer has been to create a carefully cultivated image of competence, as opposed to tory chaos. But Sunak is now 'Mr competent' and is going to appoint a sensible cabinet. Starmer is now going to have to come up with something else, which is going to be quite difficult.

Sunak has been part of the craziness of the past few months and has a questionable track record. It's important to enjoy your new leader, but I would advise you not to get too carried away.

What's the government's position on fracking I wonder.

darkage

CarlottaVance said:

It may have felt like the system was failing in Britain over the past year. But actually with hindsight we can see the system worked: despite a large majority two incompetent prime ministers were ejected and the cabinet member seen as the most competent installed.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584545406540972032

On reflection I think this comment is a bit premature. We've got to wait a few months to see what Sunak actually does, how he handles certain issues, before that conclusion can be reached. But certainly he is right about Truss. She was useless and got removed, this is evidence of an effective political system that can respond to events.

Richard_Nabavi

148grss said:

I think it depends on what "hard truths" he tells. If he says "we are a nation on the decline that can no longer afford the finer things in life - like a social safety net and well managed national health service - because we instead prioritise cutting the state and handing over growth to the financialised sector" then I don't see him doing well at all. If he says "we can have tax rises and these things or no tax rises and a reduction in the size of the state, I'm going to call a GE and clearly say the Tory party is the second" then he might do fine? The problem is the Tories won an election premised on levelling up - Keynesianism and investment. That hasn't happened yet, it wasn't going to happen under Truss, and Sunak and Hunt don't look they want to deliver it either. Which I think probably will lead to Sunak not bouncing the Tory party back as much as some suspect.

He's certainly a huge problem, not only because of the economic mess but also because the party ructions haven't gone away. Levelling up is not going to happen anytime soon - it was a meaningless bit of Boris boosterism without any policy substance behind it, and even if the policy substance were there it would take years to show results. What makes it even more difficult is that the red wall voters Boris won over seem to want things which are directly inimical to levelling up.

Andy_JS

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.

You'd think so — but we'll see what happens.

CarlottaVance

Ungallant!

Biden is old enough to be Sunak, Macron and Meloni's father.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1584546496128905218

or Macron's wife.

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1584547324298031104

Carnyx

Scott_xP said:

Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

Whatever can he mean?

A look at the chap's party website offers some hints, such as a reference to Our Island Story (capitalised). "Rural Conservatism is about a deep and atavistic connection to the soil beneath our feet and to the ancestors whose footprints we now walk in." I don't think they like [edit] mass immigration, either.

https://www.ruralconservatives.org/beliefs

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_xP said:

Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

Go and join Reform UK or Farage then

Luckyguy1983

BartholomewRoberts said:

Congratulations Sunak. Hope he can do a good job. 👍

I echo that sentiment. On to the next thing!

wooliedyed

CarlottaVance said:

BBC takes Martine Croxall off air for potential breach of impartiality over Johnson

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1584546912476270594

I'm grinning a lot at this, is that inappropriate, am i allowed to be grinning this much? Well i am.

Ishmael_Z

Carnyx said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DJ41 said:

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.

Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?

That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.

mwadams

YBarddCwsc said:

wooliedyed said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

Somewhere between small/moderate Lab majority and Labour Minority
Should, just, avoid Welsh and Scots wipeouts and might hold on in a handful of red wallers that swung very hard in '19 is my initial prediction

I think the crucial thing is the War & when it ends.

The man who is PM once the effects of the War have gone will be a lucky general.

If the War ends next year, then that could be Sunak. If not, then it is SKS who is lucky.

It is not when the War ends, so much as when the economic restructuring around sanctions on Russia are fully absorbed. Those sanctions (and the need to remove the dependency on Russian energy) *will not* end with the end of the war.

Carnyx

Ishmael_Z said:

Carnyx said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DJ41 said:

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.

Why would X score a scholarship but only plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?

That and/or the feeling that College is an unhealthily intellectual-hothouseish sort of place. A criticism which IMO applies to the school as a whole.

Oh, thanks - so College is in the sense of a boarding house where the scholars aka swots go? Not a reference to the school as a whole, including the other boarding houses? Now I understand.

StuartDickson

Peter_the_Punter said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Very anecdotal, I know, but I now feel able to support the Conservatives, and it was only a few months ago that I was genuinely thinking of voting Labour for the first time ever. I suspect the Tories will lose quite a few on the populist far right that loved The Clown, but I think it Sunak can pull a decent team around him he has a real prospect of blunting the Labour advance. If he gets some luck on his side then things might change and lots of people might be saying "SKS fans please explain" 🤣🤣🤣

I think the absolute depths Truss plumbed is going to make Sunak look very good short term comparitively but i can see things settling into a low 40s plays high 20s pattern, tories fighting to get to 200 next time

Agreed - 200 to 250 the likely range now.

England: 200 to 250
Scotland: zilch
Wales: zilch
N Ireland: zilch

The party of the Union. Ho ho.

FrankBooth

This will create a huge amount of interest in the most populous country in the world. Difficult to quantify the soft power effect but it shouldn't be overlooked.

DavidL

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.

I can see the Tories back in the low 30s pretty quickly but that is still quite a long way behind and people will not forget the shambles of 2022 from January until today.

Mexicanpete

biggles said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

Can Sunak get the Tories off 19%? Looking forward to the first round of opinion polls.

Yes, and with a very big honeymoon bounce.

34/35 is going to look exceptional by comparison isn’t it? I do think the overall majority market will have to shift. Anything around there and the fundamental obstacles to a Labour majority in one bound start to be visible again.

I specifically noted the "honeymoon bounce". I just don't see incumbency being Sunak's friend with the economic picture and how it is looking over the next couple of years.

Quite a few hubristic Conservatives are already doing victory laps on here and in media interviews.

williamglenn

FrankBooth said:

This will create a huge amount of interest in the most populous country in the world. Difficult to quantify the soft power effect but it shouldn't be overlooked.

Also in the broader diaspora, particularly in the USA.

Gardenwalker

My mortgage(s) says thank-you to the Conservative Party.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

LostPassword said:

GIN1138 said:

So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

Labour meanwhile... ?

The Tories have had as many Prime Ministers in less than seven years as Labour have had in more than eight decades, so the sample sizes are different.

Since the war, the Tories have had 15 leaders to Labour's 12.

When Cameron and Corbyn were leaders, the score was 11-11.

Pernickety point, but does that include George Brown, Beckett and Harman?

(Also, does it include Attlee?)

Sorry, I should have said permanent leaders so no to Beckett et al, but yes to Attlee (and Churchill for the Tories).

The complicating factor is that under Labour's constitution they were permanent leaders as there's no 'acting leader' role in the Labour Party as there is in say, the Liberal Democrats.

I know in reality they were not, but...

I'm not sure Truss even counts as an "acting leader", unless that includes getting out her mums wardrobe and playing....

boulay

Carnyx said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DJ41 said:

boulay said:

DJ41 said:

Neat takeover of No10 by the almost-billionaire, starting in July when he resigned from the government.

He could never have won a membership vote, but it turned out there was another route.

Questions include

1. Will someone (Banksy?) put the money up to split the Tory party? (Recall Malcolm Pearson meeting Tommy Robinson in the HoL.)

2. Did Sunak try to become a scholar at Winchester, or did he think that becoming anything other than a commoner was beyond his grasp? (What do you reckon, @Boulay? )

3. What will the Daily Mail say about the Sunak administration's imminent (Halloween) budget, or will the entire media perhaps call it Hunt's statement? (Recall the Daily Mail's joyous applause for the Truss and Kwarteng budget.)

You don’t want to be a scholar, Dynamo, otherwise you turn out like Marcus Fysh.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Did Sunak sit the Winchester College Election exams, or didn't he? And if he did, did he put down that he wanted to be a scholar? (Some sit Election and even perform well and say they only want an exhibition - as you probably know.) We know he wasn't a scholar. I'm interested in whether he tried to be one.

Bugger these trivialities. A hot must be held, and Domum sung, forthwith. It's not every day a 218 year drought ends.

Why would X score a scholarship but only
plump for an exhibition, please? Cos X has enough money or what?

If you take a scholarship you were bound to be in College with all the other scholars which is fine if you are a fan of Hogwarts populated by super-brains with no common sense so some boys/parents would turn down the scholarship and ensure they were in commoner houses with slightly less weird peers.

StuartDickson

Bye bye Alister Jack.

Bye bye Douglas Ross.

Will that Welsh Tory twat survive?

Sunil_Prasannan

Congrats to Rishi Rich!

OnlyLivingBoy

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Extremely disappointing news that Penny Mordaunt has quit and that Rishi Sunak will be next Tory leader and Prime Minister. It's not what Conservative members want; nor what the country wants. We will have a globalist PM and the #MigrantCrisis and #IdentityCrisis will get worse. https://twitter.com/ruralconserv/status/1584536248642781185

Whatever can he mean?

A look at the chap's party website offers some hints, such as a reference to Our Island Story (capitalised). "Rural Conservatism is about a deep and atavistic connection to the soil beneath our feet and to the ancestors whose footprints we now walk in." I don't think they like [edit] mass immigration, either.

https://www.ruralconservatives.org/beliefs

Is he local?