If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .
You have GOT to be kidding?!
There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.
I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
What's more if Johnson wins after Rishi is the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs (all but a few from the Great Red Wall of Thickodom) then the the chances of the Party splitting is a certainty
Not under FPTP
Apart from a few going to the complete failure that was ChangeUK the vast majority of Labour MPs stayed in Labour under Corbyn despite the fact he was never the choice of most Labour MPs but only most members because of FPTP
I think this underestimates the power of the Labour brand. Most party members refused to give Labour up to (largely arriviste) members who had no such affection or affiliation with the party identity.
That's why they stayed.
It is unclear to me that the factions in the conservative party have the same deep roots. C.f. defections and expulsions over the past few years.
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
A thought occured to me. If the Conservatives and the Labour party are full of mad people, as they appear to be, then the nature of democracy is such that eventually there will be a moderate response. It didn't happen with the Tiggers, but I think a few years on, a new centrist, sensible party (or political movement) is almost inevitable. If everyone is tired with the existing parties, and the established parties don't reinvent themselves from within, this is what will eventually happen. At the moment this 'moderate/centrist' force looks like the labour party, but I think it is only a matter of time in my view until they self destruct under the weight of their activist demands.
81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
They were in opposition, not government.
And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
Johnson like Trudeau also won the last general election.
Indeed Johnson unlike Trudeau won a majority of seats in the Commons and the popular vote, not most seats in a hung parliament but second on votes. So while you could say Truss had no mandate from voters until the next general election Johnson does.
Johnson had a mandate. Ex PM Johnson no longer does, and to pretend otherwise is pitiful casuistry.
General elections give up to 5 year terms, Johnson therefore still has a mandate until January 2025 in the unlikely event he not Rishi becomes PM
MPs are elected for that period. The idea of a 'mandate' is nowhere so defined. A PM who resigned in disgrace, of a party under 20% in the polls has no such claim.
I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.
He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.
The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
His seat was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
Wellingborough was also Labour -held until 1959 and again 1964 - 1969 when it was lost at a by election.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
Everything short of Rejoin including either Switzerland or Norway is perfectly compatible with Brexit. Formal Rejoin would require an explicit mandate, either at a GE or by referendum.
Esp as leading leavers explicitly said we could have those options, before the vote
The idea that so many Conservative MPs, and possibly even the majority of members could still conceive that Boris Johnson should return to office leaves me in stone cold shock. The fiasco that lead to the announcement of his resignation on July 7th was not some storm in a teacup, it was a systematic revelation of incompetence, ignorance and arrogance. There can surely be little doubt that Johnson was a disastrous failure as a Prime Minister, and the idea that he should, or even could return is an indictment, not just of the man, but the party he led for three years.
The international alarm bells should now be ringing very loudly. The crushing of dissent at the Chinese Communist Party Congress will lead to a major confrontation with the West within a matter of months or even weeks. The appointment of Sergey Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has unleashed war crimes of a savagery not seen since 1945, and unfortunately it is stabilizing the Russian situation for now. The war is not yet won, but the West is distracted and seemingly uncaring: at a time when more effort is needed. The war is not going away, and Putin still believes that his subversion may still deliver him victory, and in Italy and the United States, his puppets are indeed making progress. Are they doing the same work here?
And in the middle of this, the United Kingdom faces a farcical rout of leadership. The Conservative Party is not just a pathetic joke at the moment, it is a crime scene. It could not really be worse, and personally the idea that Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak or, God help us, Johnson will be more than placeholders before the inevitable ruin of the Tories makes it essential that we clear the lot out, bag and baggage. Never again should this bunch of tossers, chancers, and fools hold our national destiny in their tiny hands.
Any surviving PB Tories must be feeling true shame at the disgrace they have unleashed on the country, and as interest rates rise on "political instability", the price being paid by every man, woman and child in Britain is rising by the day. If there was a single patriotic bone in their bodies they would be calling for an early General Election, they know they have failed abjectly, and they know that the Conservative Party deserves the punishment it will get. The only mitigation will be if they go now, not later. The UK needs to clean the stables now. Clinging on to the wreckage will make their doom all the more certain.
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
David Frost @DavidGHFrost Boris Johnson will always be a hero for delivering Brexit.
But we must move on. It is simply not right to risk repeating the chaos & confusion of the last year.
The Tory Party must get behind a capable leader who can deliver a Conservative programme. That is @RishiSunak . 1/2
This is the message which should be driving home amongst the party at large: both the MPs and the membership.
It doesn't mean Boris won't have another shot in the future if he wants it. But as his mentor Charles Moore wrote in the Telegraph this morning, that time is not now.
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant. If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
People are talking about the security issues with an online vote.
But in this case, that might actually work in democracy's favour.
Who could hack into the voting system? Obviously, a hostile state - Russia, North Korea. Possibly a very organised non-state actor.
But - who would they rig the vote for?
If they want crazy, then Johnson is your man. But there is zero chance Putin will vote for him. Russian interests would possibly - not definitely - be better served by Sunak, as a bean counter, or Mordaunt, as an inexperienced unknown quantity. So Sunak it would be - which would benefit the country enormously. And would it make a difference in Ukraine? Almost certainly not.
As for a non-state actor - Johnson to watch the world burn? Perhaps. But that would almost certainly lead in very short order to a Labour government, which because they are no longer demented Stalinists or Fascist apologists is disliked by almost all extremist groups.
In this case, I think a rigged vote is a red herring. And the speed of deciding this way more than cancels out the fairly small risks.
Sunak was Johnson’s Chancellor during all the time Johnson was supporting Ukraine. Neither Sunak nor Mordaunt offer a change in the UK’s Ukraine policy. So Putin may hate Johnson, but looking at this cold-heartedly, all 3 likely candidates are the same on that dimension. Ergo, Russia has to decide on other factors: who will create most chaos in the West. There the answer is simple: Johnson.
Russia is not sentimental about who they support. They’ll support racists, environmentalists, left-wingers, right-wingers. They’ll support Johnson if they think he undermines British power… which clearly he does.
And Russia will know what Johnson got up to when he went off grid in that Italian villa - even if it was just bunga-bunga and nothing to do with the FSB
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
Don't even try to keep up with the price of 250g of butter.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
All those who have nominated the clown should be nowhere near the cabinet if Sunak wins.
They were willing to re-install the pathological liar .
I mostly agree but on a pragmatic level, in order to try and stop the party splitting doesn't he have to reach out to the right a little?
He could probably trust Priti with Transport? Or international development for the lols.
Deputy PM and something like Transport if he needs to get an ERG approved Foreign Sec. Keep Cleverly? The PM can override that role anyway and even though it’s him, he does seem to be close to something on NI.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
No chance with Sturgeon ruling out UDI and the UK government refusing to recognise an indyref2 for a generation
The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .
This shouldn’t even be close .
I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .
Unfortunately both are really crap , putting someone in just because they are an ethnic minor is pretty dumb choice. An arse is an arse no matter the colour.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Starmer is lying.
He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.
But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
EEA first term, and EU membership the second.
As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.
The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.
All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.
I am far from obsessed with Europe.
... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.
I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.
Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.
I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.
He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.
When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
What's he going to change, and where will the money come from, and how will it improve services?
Take energy. Just in offshore wind, there's currently a ~£250bn investment pipeline in place before 2030, which he can't disturb. There are also a variety of approaches and programmes in place which would be immensely difficult for a centrally run behemoth.
I think the Rail Question pretty much answers itself - any more than minimal change and it will make it far worse than the just-below-top-tier-in-Europe status shown by the most recent data I have seen, which will then be on his doorstep.
Water was privatised iirc for access to investment and to improve service. Which both happened.
To me the vehement debates about water are all politics and media hype - piss and wind. If you look up the comparative data, we have a system which invests far more and leaks less than the European average (graphs below). We are above average on water consumption, though. The best data we have, but with very variable circs for countries.
I really don't see any great potential benefit of renationalising things, except as you say 'cover', and a very expensive bone to throw to the mad dogs.
I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant. If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
No chance with Sturgeon ruling out UDI and the UK government refusing to recognise an indyref2 for a generation
Some nice train sets on sale these days. I recomm end them, especially the clockwork ones (don't need mains power).
The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .
This shouldn’t even be close .
I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .
Unfortunately both are really crap , putting someone in just because they are an ethnic minor is pretty dumb choice. An arse is an arse no matter the colour.
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
That was yesterday. 90p today.....
Organic?
£1.20, it's from Fortnum and Mason.
If the eco-fascists haven't been in and ruined it all....
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Starmer is lying.
He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.
But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
EEA first term, and EU membership the second.
As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.
The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.
All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.
I am far from obsessed with Europe.
... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.
I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.
Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.
I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.
He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.
When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
What's he going to change, and where will the money come from, and how will it improve services?
Take energy. Just in offshore wind, there's currently a ~£250bn investment pipeline in place before 2030, which he can't disturb. There are also a variety of approaches and programmes in place which would be immensely difficult for a centrally run behemoth.
I think the Rail Question pretty much answers itself - any more than minimal change and it will make it far worse than the just-below-top-tier-in-Europe status shown by the most recent data I have seen, which will then be on his doorstep.
Water was privatised iirc for access to investment and to improve service. Which both happened.
To me the vehement debates about water are all politics and media hype - piss and wind. If you look up the comparative data, we have a system which invests far more and leaks less than the European average (graphs below). We are above average on water consumption, though. The best data we have, but with very variable circs for countries.
I really don't see any great potential benefit of renationalising things, except as you say 'cover', and a very expensive bone to throw to the mad dogs.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant. If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet. They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .
This shouldn’t even be close .
I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .
I think it is rather positive that not only might we have an ethnic minority PM, but actually it isn't even really been part of the discussion. Same now as women standing for PM or women / ethnic minorities being appointed to high up positions in cabinet / shadow cabinet).
Regardless of his ethnicity and the missteps Sunak has made, the Tories not picking him would be absolutely idiotic. He is the only candidate that has shown he can actually do a difficult job without causing market meltdowns etc.
What planet are you on, he was th eother cheek of Boris's arse in the clusterfcuk thi sgovernment has inflicted on the country. Pair of Bozo's.
I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant. If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet. They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
Braverman might be next Leader of the Opposition, she has zero chance of becoming next PM and she knows it
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
“A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
Give him some credit for that.
Many years ago at Ross Spur I filled up next to Sir John Harvey Jones personally filling up his Chauffeur driven Volvo 740. If it is not beyond Captains of Industry to perform this complex task, surely it should not be beyond the wit of a would be Prime Minister. Although I add the caveat that Harvey-Jones was Chairman of ICI and may have had some prior petro-chemical training.
IMF forecasts US inflation back to normal levels (around 2% annually) within a year. Markets predicting biggest drop in inflation since 2008.
And all they had to do was fuck up the entire world economy to maybe get there in a year, possibly. Fed is a cancer
Indeed, the only way we're getting back to 2% inflation is massive amounts of demand destruction caused by a great-depression-sized recession. Particularly, massive fall in demand in energy due to businesses closing, and a rebalancing of supply and demand within the jobs market due to there being far fewer job vacancies. That's the path back to low inflation.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
No it isn't, especially under a likely Labour government shortly offering devomax
I haven’t been able to find the exact quote but I’ve seen it portrayed as “leaning” Johnson. Which is an odd choice of words so makes me want to see what he’s said. Saying anything at all suggests he thinks Rishi would reshuffle him - but surely the party won’t have that.
I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant. If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet. They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
She might be leading the Spartans out the door. If theyve concluded its no longer electorally viable to stand under the Tory umbrella
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Not quite, he said he was "leaning towards"....it was as much about signalling that Sunak didn't give him the support he asked for over Ukraine in the past.
Personally think it was a stupid statement. He could have privately done the signalling, saying to Sunak you better not think about wavering on Ukraine support otherwise I will resign and there will be mayhem.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
Yes though issue is Sturgeon is power crazy and happy being the big shot. Hopefully she will get her job on some crazy global charity gig and her acolytes will be purged. I do bnot believe there will be any referendum from SNP, the people will need to force it.
PM 4 PM is fucked needing half the remaining undeclared.
Her only hope is Boris pulls out
She's not supposed to be nominated, unless the clown makes it in
Yup. It’s good for Sunak if Boris gets 80 or 90 odd. At around that point I reckon he has it closed out so only he has 100 nominations.
Something like:
Sunak 200
Boris 90
PM 60
PM into a senior Cabinet roll and Boris as Ukraine tsar and moved into a safe seat to keep him happy. Boris agrees to sprinkle star dust in the red wall in 2024.
We could as a grateful nation just buy him an exclusive luxury home and superyacht in English Harbour with decent internet access so he could dip in and out of Parliamentary business only on bank holidays.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
I was unaware that the 2016 vote was binding for all time, even after it was fully enacted. Most of the Leavers on this site have been very clear that it would be fine to push for rejoining (in any way shape or form) after the exit vote was enacted.
That has happened.
In addition, the Lib Dems are very open about their intent, going as far as to publish it online. It's hardly mendacity or deception. Voters should have the right to vote for a route such as that.
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Be interesting if Imelda allows them in Scotland NHS.
Will be interesting as so far the Holyrood Committee on GRA reform has barely listened to any contrary evidence. Like Mordaunt she’s fallen for the vacuous. TWAW woo.
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Thank god. A moderate middle ground on these issues is within our grasp if the Tories choose well and Starmer holds his position.
Starmer’s comments at the Prick News awards raises concerns that he’d make NHS England’s proposed approach illegal.
And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
One imagines as the approach becomes embedded it's a fight that Starmer won't bother having and will just leave the status quo in place. It seems like a loser for Labour to reopen any of this stuff as it just repels voters and if the Tories look half sensible again next year these issues could shift votes.
I expect the stain on humanity Braverman to enter the race if Johnson doesn’t .
She’ll want to guarantee a job in the cabinet .
Given you need 100 nominations and all done in a few days, I don't think we are going to see much of those games this time around. It will all be private backroom deals.
If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .
You have GOT to be kidding?!
There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.
I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
What's more if Johnson wins after Rishi is the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs (all but a few from the Great Red Wall of Thickodom) then the the chances of the Party splitting is a certainty
Not under FPTP
Crucially, both the earlier attempts involved a small minority of the splitting party. The SDP were 28 of 260+ Labour MPs (c. 10%), ChangeUK were a considerably smaller fraction of either big party than that.
It's a whole new ball game if the split is a majority of one of the parties. FPTP would be expected to work in favour of the splitters then (who would be either Government or main Opposition).
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Be interesting if Imelda allows them in Scotland NHS.
Will be interesting as so far the Holyrood Committee on GRA reform has barely listened to any contrary evidence. Like Mordaunt she’s fallen for the vacuous. TWAW woo.
Does a person who lives in England have any ability to seek treatment in Scotland? I know there’s a lot of cross-pollination between England and Wales (using GPs in the other country because it’s geographically logical) but that’s a very different border for the most part. The England/Scotland border is fairly sparsely populated along most of the length.
If such a right exists, there’s going to be issues.
A lot of talk about Starmer ditching all his pledges from the leadership election this morning and last night, but has he really? It's current Labour policy to bring the railways back into public ownership and set up a publicly owned energy company. Labour endlessly bang on about creating green jobs, Gordon Brown is doing a review of the constitution, and there will undoubtedly have to be tax rises on the rich given the current economic situation we are now in. And given the well-timed fracking vote pretty much finished Truss off, Starmer can very much say that he's provided "effective opposition to the Tories." The main pledge Starmer is clearly gone against is promising to retain free movement, but even that might eventually be fulfilled if we did rejoin the EEA under his watch.
Still, it’s an interesting thought experiment to consider how a Corbyn led Labour would be doing against the current hot mess that is the Tory party. Would Corblab have provided a reason for the Cons to unite behind the utterly useless Truss or would voters stopped caring about the tabloid characterisation of Jezza and turned to the main not-Tory party?
As far as the EU goes, I see the issue in England being akin to one of those deep, long smouldering peat fires ready to burst back into flames when the conditions are right. Much as I deplore and despise the SKS approach on the EU it’s probably the smart move atm, but if he overdoes the rapprochement with Brussels I think there’s still a handy chunk of voters ready to turn back into slavering EUrophobes once the right wing tabloids get their mojo back.
We don't really have to imagine it, as we saw in 2019 when the Tories imploded but Labour only benefited a bit because the left was incredibly divided as many people - beyond those who read tabloids and including many who lean left - saw Corbyn for the incredibly dim crank he was. The liberal left vote split and after the Tories united again they trounced Labour. He'd be absolute toast now too given he can't talk about Ukraine without putting his foot in his mouth and looking like he's taking Putin's side or at best hopelessly naive. You'd have had a summer/autumn of turmoil with a Lib Dem surge and smaller Lab leads, probably followed by the Tories deciding they really did need to get their act together, then eventually run a campaign based on national and financial security, shoring up their own vote and watched anti and pro-Corbyn sides of the left tear into each other until we ended up with maybe a slightly less emphatic version of 2019.
93 of Sunak's backers backed him before. 9 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.
38 of Boris' backers backed Truss before, 4 backed Sunak, the votes of 13 were unknown.
3 of Mordaunt's backers backed Sunak before, 13 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.
This means that 100 of Sunak's 138 backers have declared, 38 yet to declare.
Just 60 of Truss' 158 backers have declared, 98 yet to declare.
29 of the 59 unknown voters are known this time, 30 remaining.
This is compared to the final two last time; the unknowns disproportionately represent people who nominated other candidates (or were other candidates) in earlier rounds.
Steve Barclay. Johnson’s former chief of staff backs Sunak .
Rishi with all the momentum today.
Penny seems to have utterly stalled.
I am not a Conservative, but would have been content with adults Mordaunt or Sunak to steady the ship. But why is your team bringing back EvenBiggerDog to troll the nation?
In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
In my experience, still alive. Some of the most appalling attitudes I have witnessed have been caste related in India.
But as with cricket, there are occasions when it is India United. I suspect seeing an Indian of whatever caste atop the old colonial power will be a cause of much rejoicing.
In Pakistan, maybe not so much.
I used to manage teams of programmers from India. More than one of them said that the most refreshing thing about working with non-Indians was that UK people seemed not to know (or care!) that caste existed.
OTOH, if they went into a corner shop run by Indians, before paying for anything, they needed to sort the caste issue out. More than one was refused a purchase by an Indian/UK shopkeeper. I found it hard to believe but it definitely happened.
On the plus side, they established links with some local Indian restaurants and I joined them for some fabulous "off-menu" meals that I never remembered the names of.... but they went mad for UK Fish 'n' Chips. It was by far and away their favourite.
What was the logic of refusing a purchase? I can sort of dimly grasp in principle the notion that some folk might not want to purchase food etc from an unclean caste, but why the other way round?
I am not an expert on this, but think of it as snobbery on steroids. I got the impression that if you are the "wrong sort" you should not even have come in the door.
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Thank god. A moderate middle ground on these issues is within our grasp if the Tories choose well and Starmer holds his position.
Starmer’s comments at the Prick News awards raises concerns that he’d make NHS England’s proposed approach illegal.
And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
One imagines as the approach becomes embedded it's a fight that Starmer won't bother having and will just leave the status quo in place. It seems like a loser for Labour to reopen any of this stuff as it just repels voters and if the Tories look half sensible again next year these issues could shift votes.
Stamer is trying to repeat the Blair playbook, lots of nods towards lots of causes to try and build as big a collation of anti-Tory voters as possible. Hence trying to claim Brexit is a done deal, then some murmuring about PR, etc.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
No it isn't, especially under a likely Labour government shortly offering devomax
I always think the stupid gotcha questions over tell me the price of x is pathetic.
There's always the overpowering sense that the person posing the question looked it up for the interview.
Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.
Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
Steve Barclay. Johnson’s former chief of staff backs Sunak .
Rishi with all the momentum today.
Penny seems to have utterly stalled.
I am not a Conservative, but would have been content with adults Mordaunt or Sunak to steady the ship. But why is your team bringing back EvenBiggerDog to troll the nation?
Because it has a bunch of fuckwits who don't do politics?
It is a significant frustration. To the point where they aren't my "team".
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side. Again.
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
No it isn't, especially under a likely Labour government shortly offering devomax
That th esame one offered in 2014 then
Scotland Act 2016 partly delivered it but in 2014 of course there was a Tory led UK government
Sunak's backers have stuck with him, losing a few, gaining a few, but largely unchanged.
Truss's backers are lukewarm about Boris, with 63% backing him but most currently uncommitted.
The nominations are there for Boris - but not enthusiastically.
I think that’s why Frost and people like him matter. The Boris bubble could quickly deflate, at which point you get a Rishi super majority and a coronation.
I always think the stupid gotcha questions over tell me the price of x is pathetic.
There's always the overpowering sense that the person posing the question looked it up for the interview.
Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.
Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
They may have had a "fuck me, a tub of Lurpak is more than a fiver!" when dashing in to their Little Waitrose for a gin in a tin for the train home.
I always think the stupid gotcha questions over tell me the price of x is pathetic.
There's always the overpowering sense that the person posing the question looked it up for the interview.
Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.
Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
This is something I can't work out about the BBC. Solid £65,000 a year lifetime correspondents are in the BBC rich list on £400,000 a year before you know it, all with grand titles. We don't need them, the BBC doesn't need them. What earthly use is Victoria Derbyshire anyway?
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones -Limit on social transition -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist -Focus on mental health
Thank god. A moderate middle ground on these issues is within our grasp if the Tories choose well and Starmer holds his position.
Starmer’s comments at the Prick News awards raises concerns that he’d make NHS England’s proposed approach illegal.
And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
One imagines as the approach becomes embedded it's a fight that Starmer won't bother having and will just leave the status quo in place. It seems like a loser for Labour to reopen any of this stuff as it just repels voters and if the Tories look half sensible again next year these issues could shift votes.
Stamer is trying to repeat the Blair playbook, lots of nods towards lots of causes to try and build as big a collation of anti-Tory voters as possible. Hence trying to claim Brexit is a done deal, then some murmuring about PR, etc.
I don't get any sense of what Starmer actually believes. He has the air of a technocrat. But that doesn't inspire passion or enthusiasm.
Starmerism doesn't exist. I don't think it is ever going to exist.
He has dumped a significant number of his leadership election pledges.
In that he is very much a typical politician.
But as the likely PM after the GE whenever that comes, I would like some inkling as to a personal philosophy.
I just do not believe he has one. Not that I could ever vote Labour. But I would still like a sense of something behind the eyes.
Comments
That's why they stayed.
It is unclear to me that the factions in the conservative party have the same deep roots. C.f. defections and expulsions over the past few years.
Possibly to be choreograped with other big hitters coming out for him
Lots of possibilities - strong words from Hunt, Wallace jumping over to him, etc.
The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:
-Puberty blockers only prescribed for research
-Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones
-Limit on social transition
-Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist
-Focus on mental health
https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1583747787807948800
If the Conservatives and the Labour party are full of mad people, as they appear to be, then the nature of democracy is such that eventually there will be a moderate response.
It didn't happen with the Tiggers, but I think a few years on, a new centrist, sensible party (or political movement) is almost inevitable.
If everyone is tired with the existing parties, and the established parties don't reinvent themselves from within, this is what will eventually happen.
At the moment this 'moderate/centrist' force looks like the labour party, but I think it is only a matter of time in my view until they self destruct under the weight of their activist demands.
The idea of a 'mandate' is nowhere so defined.
A PM who resigned in disgrace, of a party under 20% in the polls has no such claim.
As I said, pathetic casuistry from you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y
It doesn't mean Boris won't have another shot in the future if he wants it. But as his mentor Charles Moore wrote in the Telegraph this morning, that time is not now.
If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
The area that currently interests me is the creation of a 'micro-grid', and how that becomes possible with G2 smart meters.
Johnson 5/1
Mordaunt 35/1
"Kherson civilians, and all subdivisions and ministries of [fake] civil administration must cross today to the Dnipro's left bank"
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583784574840020994
Next gen grids are interesting, I agree.
They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
It's gonna be an ugly couple of years.
And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
Personally think it was a stupid statement. He could have privately done the signalling, saying to Sunak you better not think about wavering on Ukraine support otherwise I will resign and there will be mayhem.
She’ll want to guarantee a job in the cabinet .
Most of the Leavers on this site have been very clear that it would be fine to push for rejoining (in any way shape or form) after the exit vote was enacted.
That has happened.
In addition, the Lib Dems are very open about their intent, going as far as to publish it online. It's hardly mendacity or deception. Voters should have the right to vote for a route such as that.
It's a whole new ball game if the split is a majority of one of the parties. FPTP would be expected to work in favour of the splitters then (who would be either Government or main Opposition).
If such a right exists, there’s going to be issues.
93 of Sunak's backers backed him before. 9 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.
38 of Boris' backers backed Truss before, 4 backed Sunak, the votes of 13 were unknown.
3 of Mordaunt's backers backed Sunak before, 13 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.
This means that 100 of Sunak's 138 backers have declared, 38 yet to declare.
Just 60 of Truss' 158 backers have declared, 98 yet to declare.
29 of the 59 unknown voters are known this time, 30 remaining.
This is compared to the final two last time; the unknowns disproportionately represent people who nominated other candidates (or were other candidates) in earlier rounds.
Presumably this is the only question that matters: can Johnson get to 100.
I never could make sense of it.
Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
Sunak's backers have stuck with him, losing a few, gaining a few, but largely unchanged.
Truss's backers are lukewarm about Boris, with 63% backing him but most currently uncommitted.
The nominations are there for Boris - but not enthusiastically.
It is a significant frustration. To the point where they aren't my "team".
BIDEN: "It's my intention to run again."
Q: "Dr. Biden is for it?"
BIDEN: *silence*
Q: "Mr. President?"
BIDEN: "Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we're, that we're doing something very important."
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1583601424968994816?s=20&t=C7g62gjPavqcntDt4kBGMA
Starmerism doesn't exist. I don't think it is ever going to exist.
He has dumped a significant number of his
leadership election pledges.
In that he is very much a typical politician.
But as the likely PM after the GE whenever that comes, I would like some inkling as to a personal philosophy.
I just do not believe he has one. Not that I could ever vote Labour. But I would still like a sense of something behind the eyes.
SNP 41%
SLab 35%
SCon 9%
SLD 8%
Grn 4%
Ref 2%
oth 1%