Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

This has major betting implications – politicalbetting.com

1456810

Comments

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    HYUFD said:

    Apart from a few going to the complete failure that was ChangeUK the vast majority of Labour MPs stayed in Labour under Corbyn despite the fact he was never the choice of most Labour MPs but only most members because of FPTP
    I think this underestimates the power of the Labour brand. Most party members refused to give Labour up to (largely arriviste) members who had no such affection or affiliation with the party identity.

    That's why they stayed.

    It is unclear to me that the factions in the conservative party have the same deep roots. C.f. defections and expulsions over the past few years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    Barnesian said:

    Why is he delaying? What could the reasons be? He knows he's miles ahead with MPs.

    Possibly wants tomorrow's headlines

    Possibly to be choreograped with other big hitters coming out for him

    Lots of possibilities - strong words from Hunt, Wallace jumping over to him, etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,855

    I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.

    Give him some credit for that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Meanwhile, under the radar:

    The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:

    -Puberty blockers only prescribed for research
    -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones
    -Limit on social transition
    -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist
    -Focus on mental health


    https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1583747787807948800
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    IanB2 said:

    Wouldn't be surprised; fuel dropped by over 25% just during my recent trip.
    In looking at U.K. politics and global economic prospects, I think it’s worth noting that Biden will went to engineer a boom in 2023/4.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    A thought occured to me.
    If the Conservatives and the Labour party are full of mad people, as they appear to be, then the nature of democracy is such that eventually there will be a moderate response.
    It didn't happen with the Tiggers, but I think a few years on, a new centrist, sensible party (or political movement) is almost inevitable.
    If everyone is tired with the existing parties, and the established parties don't reinvent themselves from within, this is what will eventually happen.
    At the moment this 'moderate/centrist' force looks like the labour party, but I think it is only a matter of time in my view until they self destruct under the weight of their activist demands.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    .
    HYUFD said:

    General elections give up to 5 year terms, Johnson therefore still has a mandate until January 2025 in the unlikely event he not Rishi becomes PM
    MPs are elected for that period.
    The idea of a 'mandate' is nowhere so defined.
    A PM who resigned in disgrace, of a party under 20% in the polls has no such claim.

    As I said, pathetic casuistry from you.

  • Andy_JS said:

    His seat was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
    Wellingborough was also Labour -held until 1959 and again 1964 - 1969 when it was lost at a by election.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    One can only hope
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited October 2022
    Heathener said:

    I mostly agree but on a pragmatic level, in order to try and stop the party splitting doesn't he have to reach out to the right a little?
    He only needs to keep Wallace the rest can go fxck themselves !
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    Cicero said:

    "When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
    Financial Times specialises in facts
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    ping said:

    Sunak 1/3
    Johnson 4/1
    Mordaunt 23/1

    That's about right I reckon
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,546
    Cicero said:

    The idea that so many Conservative MPs, and possibly even the majority of members could still conceive that Boris Johnson should return to office leaves me in stone cold shock. The fiasco that lead to the announcement of his resignation on July 7th was not some storm in a teacup, it was a systematic revelation of incompetence, ignorance and arrogance. There can surely be little doubt that Johnson was a disastrous failure as a Prime Minister, and the idea that he should, or even could return is an indictment, not just of the man, but the party he led for three years.

    The international alarm bells should now be ringing very loudly. The crushing of dissent at the Chinese Communist Party Congress will lead to a major confrontation with the West within a matter of months or even weeks. The appointment of Sergey Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has unleashed war crimes of a savagery not seen since 1945, and unfortunately it is stabilizing the Russian situation for now. The war is not yet won, but the West is distracted and seemingly uncaring: at a time when more effort is needed. The war is not going away, and Putin still believes that his subversion may still deliver him victory, and in Italy and the United States, his puppets are indeed making progress. Are they doing the same work here?

    And in the middle of this, the United Kingdom faces a farcical rout of leadership. The Conservative Party is not just a pathetic joke at the moment, it is a crime scene. It could not really be worse, and personally the idea that Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak or, God help us, Johnson will be more than placeholders before the inevitable ruin of the Tories makes it essential that we clear the lot out, bag and baggage. Never again should this bunch of tossers, chancers, and fools hold our national destiny in their tiny hands.

    Any surviving PB Tories must be feeling true shame at the disgrace they have unleashed on the country, and as interest rates rise on "political instability", the price being paid by every man, woman and child in Britain is rising by the day. If there was a single patriotic bone in their bodies they would be calling for an early General Election, they know they have failed abjectly, and they know that the Conservative Party deserves the punishment it will get. The only mitigation will be if they go now, not later.
    The UK needs to clean the stables now. Clinging on to the wreckage will make their doom all the more certain.

    Mene mene tekel upharsin.

    Fantastic post, thank you @Cicero
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.

    “A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2022


    David Frost
    @DavidGHFrost
    Boris Johnson will always be a hero for delivering Brexit.

    But we must move on. It is simply not right to risk repeating the chaos & confusion of the last year.

    The Tory Party must get behind a capable leader who can deliver a Conservative programme. That is
    @RishiSunak
    . 1/2

    This is the message which should be driving home amongst the party at large: both the MPs and the membership.

    It doesn't mean Boris won't have another shot in the future if he wants it. But as his mentor Charles Moore wrote in the Telegraph this morning, that time is not now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited October 2022
    biggles said:

    “A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
    That was yesterday. 90p today. Keep up.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant.
    If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    That was yesterday. 90p today.....
    Organic?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834

    Sunak was Johnson’s Chancellor during all the time Johnson was supporting Ukraine. Neither Sunak nor Mordaunt offer a change in the UK’s Ukraine policy. So Putin may hate Johnson, but looking at this cold-heartedly, all 3 likely candidates are the same on that dimension. Ergo, Russia has to decide on other factors: who will create most chaos in the West. There the answer is simple: Johnson.

    Russia is not sentimental about who they support. They’ll support racists, environmentalists, left-wingers, right-wingers. They’ll support Johnson if they think he undermines British power… which clearly he does.

    And Russia will know what Johnson got up to when he went off grid in that Italian villa - even if it was just bunga-bunga and nothing to do with the FSB
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Meanwhile, under the radar:

    The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:

    -Puberty blockers only prescribed for research
    -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones
    -Limit on social transition
    -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist
    -Focus on mental health


    https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1583747787807948800

    Thank god. A moderate middle ground on these issues is within our grasp if the Tories choose well and Starmer holds his position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,834
    edited October 2022
    Heathener said:

    I mostly agree but on a pragmatic level, in order to try and stop the party splitting doesn't he have to reach out to the right a little?
    He could probably trust Priti with Transport? Or international development for the lols. And there's Wallace
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676

    Organic?
    £1.20, it's from Fortnum and Mason.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    Organic?
    No, milk.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    biggles said:

    “A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is 70p. A pint of milk is….”
    Don't even try to keep up with the price of 250g of butter.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    ydoethur said:

    So Scots think it’s a bad idea to leave long-established and successful unions that promote trade and security in search of mythical extra sovereignty, but they were pushed into it by a bunch of corrupt xenophobes?🤔
    Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    biggles said:

    In looking at U.K. politics and global economic prospects, I think it’s worth noting that Biden will went to engineer a boom in 2023/4.
    He couldnt engineer a fart the ridiculous old twat
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    IanB2 said:

    He could probably trust Priti with Transport? Or international development for the lols.
    Deputy PM and something like Transport if he needs to get an ERG approved Foreign Sec. Keep Cleverly? The PM can override that role anyway and even though it’s him, he does seem to be close to something on NI.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    malcolmg said:

    Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
    No chance with Sturgeon ruling out UDI and the UK government refusing to recognise an indyref2 for a generation
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    nico679 said:

    The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .

    This shouldn’t even be close .

    I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .

    Unfortunately both are really crap , putting someone in just because they are an ethnic minor is pretty dumb choice. An arse is an arse no matter the colour.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    mwadams said:

    Energy is interesting - there's production, infrastructure and the bullshit fantasy of competition in what basically amounts to billing.

    It would be comparatively easy to "privatise" one of those tiers.
    I think there's more variation than that - competition impacts on customer service, for one example.

    The area that currently interests me is the creation of a 'micro-grid', and how that becomes possible with G2 smart meters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited October 2022
    darkage said:

    I get the feeling that this time around, Johnson really is crashing and won't get the MP's. The Lord Frost intervention is very significant.
    If this is correct, the question is whether Braverman/Badenoch or someone else on the 'right' decide to try their luck. In which case their odds (which are currently insanely long) will rapidly shorten.

    There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    No chance with Sturgeon ruling out UDI and the UK government refusing to recognise an indyref2 for a generation
    Some nice train sets on sale these days. I recomm end them, especially the clockwork ones (don't need mains power).
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Sunak 1/4
    Johnson 5/1
    Mordaunt 35/1
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    malcolmg said:

    Unfortunately both are really crap , putting someone in just because they are an ethnic minor is pretty dumb choice. An arse is an arse no matter the colour.
    There's a butt in there somewhere!
  • MaxPB said:

    £1.20, it's from Fortnum and Mason.
    If the eco-fascists haven't been in and ruined it all....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022
    I always think the stupid gotcha questions over tell me the price of x is pathetic.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Russian occupation administration says it leaves Kherson city, says "all Kherson residents must immediately leave city" too

    "Kherson civilians, and all subdivisions and ministries of [fake] civil administration must cross today to the Dnipro's left bank"


    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583784574840020994
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    MattW said:

    I think there's more variation than that - competition impacts on customer service, for one example.

    The area that currently interests me is the creation of a 'micro-grid', and how that becomes possible with G2 smart meters.
    I'm not sure there is any such variation in the energy billing cartel, though.

    Next gen grids are interesting, I agree.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    malcolmg said:

    Were not pushed , just totally ignored and dragged out by those Jingoist halfwits in Westminster. Sooner we get out of this banana republic the better.
    If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    HYUFD said:

    There is zero chance of Braverman or Badenoch getting to 100 Tory MPs if Boris doesn't. Sunak will just become PM by coronation of his party's MPs with no contest like Brown in 2007 did
    I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet.
    They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    I think it is rather positive that not only might we have an ethnic minority PM, but actually it isn't even really been part of the discussion. Same now as women standing for PM or women / ethnic minorities being appointed to high up positions in cabinet / shadow cabinet).

    Regardless of his ethnicity and the missteps Sunak has made, the Tories not picking him would be absolutely idiotic. He is the only candidate that has shown he can actually do a difficult job without causing market meltdowns etc.
    What planet are you on, he was th eother cheek of Boris's arse in the clusterfcuk thi sgovernment has inflicted on the country. Pair of Bozo's.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited October 2022
    darkage said:

    I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet.
    They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
    Braverman might be next Leader of the Opposition, she has zero chance of becoming next PM and she knows it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,855

    No, milk.
    That implies milk isn't organic.
  • nico679 said:

    Steve Barclay. Johnson’s former chief of staff backs Sunak .

    Rishi with all the momentum today.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    Is Wallace backing Johnson?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    nico679 said:

    Steve Barclay. Johnson’s former chief of staff backs Sunak .

    I wonder if there’s a few Tory big beast pro-Sunak editorials/letters in the Sundays?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Meanwhile, under the radar:

    The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:

    -Puberty blockers only prescribed for research
    -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones
    -Limit on social transition
    -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist
    -Focus on mental health


    https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1583747787807948800

    Be interesting if Imelda allows them in Scotland NHS.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    ydoethur said:

    Give him some credit for that.
    Many years ago at Ross Spur I filled up next to Sir John Harvey Jones personally filling up his Chauffeur driven Volvo 740. If it is not beyond Captains of Industry to perform this complex task, surely it should not be beyond the wit of a would be Prime Minister. Although I add the caveat that Harvey-Jones was Chairman of ICI and may have had some prior petro-chemical training.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,855

    Rishi with all the momentum today.
    Lord Frost AND Momentum are backing him? Wow, that's some coalition!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    And all they had to do was fuck up the entire world economy to maybe get there in a year, possibly.
    Fed is a cancer
    Indeed, the only way we're getting back to 2% inflation is massive amounts of demand destruction caused by a great-depression-sized recession. Particularly, massive fall in demand in energy due to businesses closing, and a rebalancing of supply and demand within the jobs market due to there being far fewer job vacancies. That's the path back to low inflation.

    It's gonna be an ugly couple of years.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Wallace backing Johnson?

    “Leaning towards” iirc his comments yesterday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    biggles said:

    If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
    No it isn't, especially under a likely Labour government shortly offering devomax
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Wallace backing Johnson?

    He said he was leaning to him so yes .
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Wallace backing Johnson?

    I haven’t been able to find the exact quote but I’ve seen it portrayed as “leaning” Johnson. Which is an odd choice of words so makes me want to see what he’s said. Saying anything at all suggests he thinks Rishi would reshuffle him - but surely the party won’t have that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    darkage said:

    I think they will try, and then their odds will shorten. So it is a trading bet.
    They aren't serious contenders but Braverman in particular will want to try. Why else did she do the farcical 'resignation' a few days ago?
    She might be leading the Spartans out the door. If theyve concluded its no longer electorally viable to stand under the Tory umbrella
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    biggles said:

    Thank god. A moderate middle ground on these issues is within our grasp if the Tories choose well and Starmer holds his position.
    Starmer’s comments at the Prick News awards raises concerns that he’d make NHS England’s proposed approach illegal.

    And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Wallace backing Johnson?

    Not quite, he said he was "leaning towards"....it was as much about signalling that Sunak didn't give him the support he asked for over Ukraine in the past.

    Personally think it was a stupid statement. He could have privately done the signalling, saying to Sunak you better not think about wavering on Ukraine support otherwise I will resign and there will be mayhem.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    biggles said:

    If I was the SNP, I reckon I’d just get on with detailed design work and think about an all party constitutional convention. Basically act like it’s inevitable - which it probably is.
    Yes though issue is Sturgeon is power crazy and happy being the big shot. Hopefully she will get her job on some crazy global charity gig and her acolytes will be purged. I do bnot believe there will be any referendum from SNP, the people will need to force it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Russian occupation administration says it leaves Kherson city, says "all Kherson residents must immediately leave city" too

    "Kherson civilians, and all subdivisions and ministries of [fake] civil administration must cross today to the Dnipro's left bank"


    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583784574840020994

    Hopefully they get the shit knocked out of them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    biggles said:

    Yup. It’s good for Sunak if Boris gets 80 or 90 odd. At around that point I reckon he has it closed out so only he has 100 nominations.

    Something like:

    Sunak 200

    Boris 90

    PM 60

    PM into a senior Cabinet roll and Boris as Ukraine tsar and moved into a safe seat to keep him happy. Boris agrees to sprinkle star dust in the red wall in 2024.
    We could as a grateful nation just buy him an exclusive luxury home and superyacht in English Harbour with decent internet access so he could dip in and out of Parliamentary business only on bank holidays.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I expect the stain on humanity Braverman to enter the race if Johnson doesn’t .

    She’ll want to guarantee a job in the cabinet .
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    I was unaware that the 2016 vote was binding for all time, even after it was fully enacted.
    Most of the Leavers on this site have been very clear that it would be fine to push for rejoining (in any way shape or form) after the exit vote was enacted.

    That has happened.

    In addition, the Lib Dems are very open about their intent, going as far as to publish it online. It's hardly mendacity or deception. Voters should have the right to vote for a route such as that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    malcolmg said:

    Be interesting if Imelda allows them in Scotland NHS.
    Will be interesting as so far the Holyrood Committee on GRA reform has barely listened to any contrary evidence. Like Mordaunt she’s fallen for the vacuous. TWAW woo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Rishi with all the momentum today.
    Penny seems to have utterly stalled.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,676

    Starmer’s comments at the Prick News awards raises concerns that he’d make NHS England’s proposed approach illegal.

    And of course NHS Scotland continues to follow the Mermaid model.
    One imagines as the approach becomes embedded it's a fight that Starmer won't bother having and will just leave the status quo in place. It seems like a loser for Labour to reopen any of this stuff as it just repels voters and if the Tories look half sensible again next year these issues could shift votes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,855

    Russian occupation administration says it leaves Kherson city, says "all Kherson residents must immediately leave city" too

    "Kherson civilians, and all subdivisions and ministries of [fake] civil administration must cross today to the Dnipro's left bank"


    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583784574840020994

    They are already on the left bank. Do they mean cross to the right bank?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022
    nico679 said:

    I expect the stain on humanity Braverman to enter the race if Johnson doesn’t .

    She’ll want to guarantee a job in the cabinet .

    Given you need 100 nominations and all done in a few days, I don't think we are going to see much of those games this time around. It will all be private backroom deals.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    ydoethur said:

    They are already on the left bank. Do they mean cross to the right bank?
    The left bank is the south/east side (in the direction of the flow of the river)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    HYUFD said:

    Not under FPTP
    Crucially, both the earlier attempts involved a small minority of the splitting party. The SDP were 28 of 260+ Labour MPs (c. 10%), ChangeUK were a considerably smaller fraction of either big party than that.

    It's a whole new ball game if the split is a majority of one of the parties. FPTP would be expected to work in favour of the splitters then (who would be either Government or main Opposition).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,855
    mwadams said:

    The left bank is the south/east side (in the direction of the flow of the river)
    I thought you look upstream to decide which is left or right?
  • nico679 said:

    I expect the stain on humanity Braverman to enter the race if Johnson doesn’t .

    She’ll want to guarantee a job in the cabinet .

    I really do not think she has any chance whatsoever, thankfully
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Will be interesting as so far the Holyrood Committee on GRA reform has barely listened to any contrary evidence. Like Mordaunt she’s fallen for the vacuous. TWAW woo.
    Does a person who lives in England have any ability to seek treatment in Scotland? I know there’s a lot of cross-pollination between England and Wales (using GPs in the other country because it’s geographically logical) but that’s a very different border for the most part. The England/Scotland border is fairly sparsely populated along most of the length.

    If such a right exists, there’s going to be issues.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996

    Still, it’s an interesting thought experiment to consider how a Corbyn led Labour would be doing against the current hot mess that is the Tory party. Would Corblab have provided a reason for the Cons to unite behind the utterly useless Truss or would voters stopped caring about the tabloid characterisation of Jezza and turned to the main not-Tory party?

    As far as the EU goes, I see the issue in England being akin to one of those deep, long smouldering peat fires ready to burst back into flames when the conditions are right. Much as I deplore and despise the SKS approach on the EU it’s probably the smart move atm, but if he overdoes the rapprochement with Brussels I think there’s still a handy chunk of voters ready to turn back into slavering EUrophobes once the right wing tabloids get their mojo back.

    We don't really have to imagine it, as we saw in 2019 when the Tories imploded but Labour only benefited a bit because the left was incredibly divided as many people - beyond those who read tabloids and including many who lean left - saw Corbyn for the incredibly dim crank he was. The liberal left vote split and after the Tories united again they trounced Labour. He'd be absolute toast now too given he can't talk about Ukraine without putting his foot in his mouth and looking like he's taking Putin's side or at best hopelessly naive. You'd have had a summer/autumn of turmoil with a Lib Dem surge and smaller Lab leads, probably followed by the Tories deciding they really did need to get their act together, then eventually run a campaign based on national and financial security, shoring up their own vote and watched anti and pro-Corbyn sides of the left tear into each other until we ended up with maybe a slightly less emphatic version of 2019.
  • The scores on the doors.

    93 of Sunak's backers backed him before. 9 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.

    38 of Boris' backers backed Truss before, 4 backed Sunak, the votes of 13 were unknown.

    3 of Mordaunt's backers backed Sunak before, 13 backed Truss, the votes of 8 were unknown.

    This means that 100 of Sunak's 138 backers have declared, 38 yet to declare.

    Just 60 of Truss' 158 backers have declared, 98 yet to declare.

    29 of the 59 unknown voters are known this time, 30 remaining.

    This is compared to the final two last time; the unknowns disproportionately represent people who nominated other candidates (or were other candidates) in earlier rounds.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768

    I always think the stupid gotcha questions over tell me the price of x is pathetic.

    There's always the overpowering sense that the person posing the question looked it up for the interview.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    Penny seems to have utterly stalled.
    I am not a Conservative, but would have been content with adults Mordaunt or Sunak to steady the ship. But why is your team bringing back EvenBiggerDog to troll the nation?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    ydoethur said:

    They are already on the left bank. Do they mean cross to the right bank?
    Given Russia’s performance so far, they might have the map upside down.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074

    Penny seems to have utterly stalled.
    If Penny can’t make it, her backers are then available to nominate someone else. Maybe most go for Sunak, but some will probably go to Johnson.

    Presumably this is the only question that matters: can Johnson get to 100.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Carnyx said:

    What was the logic of refusing a purchase? I can sort of dimly grasp in principle the notion that some folk might not want to purchase food etc from an unclean caste, but why the other way round?
    I am not an expert on this, but think of it as snobbery on steroids. I got the impression that if you are the "wrong sort" you should not even have come in the door.

    I never could make sense of it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    One imagines as the approach becomes embedded it's a fight that Starmer won't bother having and will just leave the status quo in place. It seems like a loser for Labour to reopen any of this stuff as it just repels voters and if the Tories look half sensible again next year these issues could shift votes.
    Stamer is trying to repeat the Blair playbook, lots of nods towards lots of causes to try and build as big a collation of anti-Tory voters as possible. Hence trying to claim Brexit is a done deal, then some murmuring about PR, etc.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    HYUFD said:

    No it isn't, especially under a likely Labour government shortly offering devomax
    That th esame one offered in 2014 then
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Hu Jintao dragged out of the CCP summit on live TV. Xi taking back full control
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022
    mwadams said:

    There's always the overpowering sense that the person posing the question looked it up for the interview.
    Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.

    Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
  • Tl;dr

    Sunak's backers have stuck with him, losing a few, gaining a few, but largely unchanged.

    Truss's backers are lukewarm about Boris, with 63% backing him but most currently uncommitted.


    The nominations are there for Boris - but not enthusiastically.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    I am not a Conservative, but would have been content with adults Mordaunt or Sunak to steady the ship. But why is your team bringing back EvenBiggerDog to troll the nation?
    Because it has a bunch of fuckwits who don't do politics?

    It is a significant frustration. To the point where they aren't my "team".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    malcolmg said:

    That th esame one offered in 2014 then
    Scotland Act 2016 partly delivered it but in 2014 of course there was a Tory led UK government
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited October 2022

    Hu Jintao dragged out of the CCP summit on live TV. Xi taking back full control

    Hu Jintao reminded me of how Biden is most of the time....the difference is old Winnie the Pooh is in absolute control.

    BIDEN: "It's my intention to run again."

    Q: "Dr. Biden is for it?"

    BIDEN: *silence*

    Q: "Mr. President?"

    BIDEN: "Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we're, that we're doing something very important."

    https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1583601424968994816?s=20&t=C7g62gjPavqcntDt4kBGMA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    He couldnt engineer a fart the ridiculous old twat
    Surprisingly successful ridiculous old twat.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Tl;dr

    Sunak's backers have stuck with him, losing a few, gaining a few, but largely unchanged.

    Truss's backers are lukewarm about Boris, with 63% backing him but most currently uncommitted.


    The nominations are there for Boris - but not enthusiastically.

    I think that’s why Frost and people like him matter. The Boris bubble could quickly deflate, at which point you get a Rishi super majority and a coronation.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768

    Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.

    Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
    They may have had a "fuck me, a tub of Lurpak is more than a fiver!" when dashing in to their Little Waitrose for a gin in a tin for the train home.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    edited October 2022

    Undoubtedly, the BBC talking head on £400k a year isn't keeping close check on price of milk in Asda to the penny.

    Like me, I am sure they are just filling a trolley in Waitrose (or online with Ocado) and rather have a rough idea of the weekly cost having risen a lot.
    This is something I can't work out about the BBC. Solid £65,000 a year lifetime correspondents are in the BBC rich list on £400,000 a year before you know it, all with grand titles. We don't need them, the BBC doesn't need them. What earthly use is Victoria Derbyshire anyway?
  • Mark Wood got the wheels combined with the radar fully functioning....wasted on Afghanistan.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    Stamer is trying to repeat the Blair playbook, lots of nods towards lots of causes to try and build as big a collation of anti-Tory voters as possible. Hence trying to claim Brexit is a done deal, then some murmuring about PR, etc.
    I don't get any sense of what Starmer actually believes. He has the air of a technocrat. But that doesn't inspire passion or enthusiasm.

    Starmerism doesn't exist. I don't think it is ever going to exist.

    He has dumped a significant number of his
    leadership election pledges.

    In that he is very much a typical politician.

    But as the likely PM after the GE whenever that comes, I would like some inkling as to a personal philosophy.

    I just do not believe he has one. Not that I could ever vote Labour. But I would still like a sense of something behind the eyes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Nigelb said:

    Surprisingly successful ridiculous old twat.
    Thats one take on 1.5 years of failure, sure
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Much better Scottish Labour numbers in today’s YouGov:

    SNP 41%
    SLab 35%
    SCon 9%
    SLD 8%
    Grn 4%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1%
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    ydoethur said:

    I thought you look upstream to decide which is left or right?
    Ah, no. You face in the direction of flow. Hence the left bank in Paris is the south side for example.
This discussion has been closed.