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This has major betting implications – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    People are talking about the security issues with an online vote.

    But in this case, that might actually work in democracy's favour.

    Who could hack into the voting system? Obviously, a hostile state - Russia, North Korea. Possibly a very organised non-state actor.

    But - who would they rig the vote for?

    If they want crazy, then Johnson is your man. But there is zero chance Putin will vote for him. Russian interests would possibly - not definitely - be better served by Sunak, as a bean counter, or Mordaunt, as an inexperienced unknown quantity. So Sunak it would be - which would benefit the country enormously. And would it make a difference in Ukraine? Almost certainly not.

    As for a non-state actor - Johnson to watch the world burn? Perhaps. But that would almost certainly lead in very short order to a Labour government, which because they are no longer demented Stalinists or Fascist apologists is disliked by almost all extremist groups.

    In this case, I think a rigged vote is a red herring. And the speed of deciding this way more than cancels out the fairly small risks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-return-would-be-a-disaster-says-scottish-tories-leader-douglas-ross-vz70hfzc7?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666302421-1

    'Douglas Ross has bristled at the prospect of Boris Johnson returning to power as party colleagues said it would be a “disaster” for the Scottish Conservatives and the Union.

    Nevertheless, the Scottish Conservative leader vowed to work with whoever becomes prime minister and rejected calls for a general election.'

    Fitba ref expects to run from one end of the field to the other, yet again. Astounding news.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    Has Rishi been seen in public yet? I have visions of him reaching 270, crowds thronging to Richmond for a coronation but his house is all boarded up. Eventually an old crone emerges and says 'Mr Sunak? Hes not here.... taken his green card and gone to live in America they say. He left no forwarding address'

    Too busy moving his money away from HMRC eyes
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,505
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    mwadams said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scaling latest up to 357 10:10 22 Oct


    Boris dropping below 100 on BBC figures

    I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
    Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
    Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
    Rishi was the only major voice against lock downs in the cabinet. I've also been informed that he wanted to end the furlough months earlier but was blocked by the PM who wanted to keep it for all of 2021.

    With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
    Ok, so we're rewarding him for what he'd have liked to do.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .

    This shouldn’t even be close .

    I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    mwadams said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scaling latest up to 357 10:10 22 Oct


    Boris dropping below 100 on BBC figures

    I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
    Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
    Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our
    economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
    Rishi was the only major voice against lock downs in the cabinet. I've also been informed that he wanted to end the furlough months earlier but was blocked by the PM who wanted to keep it for all of 2021.

    With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
    The markets were entirely happy - and comfortable - buying Government debt at the height of the pandemic even when the taps were on full pelt. Now they panic about fiscal responsibility. I suspect that's more to do with the QE programmes being wound down than genuine concern about the needs to balance a budget.

    That's a misunderstanding of the dynamic. The markets weren't in normal operation during COVID. The Bank of England purchased £425bn in additional government debt during the pandemic, all of the debt associated was monetised.

    Currently the BoE is planing on selling ca. £6bn in bonds per month vs purchasing £20bn.

    The markets took fright from Liz Truss' plan because it added £300bn in debt compared to the existing plan, a huge increase in gilt supply which required a bigger risk premium to increase demand to get them sold. Therefore yields went up. If Rishi is able to show debt falling and lower gilt supply over the same 5 year period then yields will fall because static demand for less supply will push up gilt prices.

    That's what happened, it was a simply function of demand and supply.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    Yes - and even in this political world of mounting absurdities just a little too bonkers to get over the line imo.
    Boris of course won the last general election too, so even if he went to the membership and won it is a completely different scenario to when Truss won the membership having neither won most MPs support or a general election
    That is the one and only sound reason I can see for Tory MPs going for him. It gives some bulwark against the 'no mandate' charge.
  • novanova Posts: 472

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    mwadams said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scaling latest up to 357 10:10 22 Oct


    Boris dropping below 100 on BBC figures

    I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
    Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
    Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
    Rishi was the only major voice against lock downs in the cabinet. I've also been informed that he wanted to end the furlough months earlier but was blocked by the PM who wanted to keep it for all of 2021.

    With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
    Ok, so we're rewarding him for what he'd have liked to do.
    Ironically, his popularity with the public would then be based on what he was doing against his wishes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.

    Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.

    If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".

    As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.

    I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
    In my experience, still alive. Some of the most appalling attitudes I have witnessed have been caste related in India.

    But as with cricket, there are occasions when it is India United. I suspect seeing an Indian of whatever caste atop the old colonial power will be a cause of much rejoicing.

    In Pakistan, maybe not so much.
    I used to manage teams of programmers from India. More than one of them said that the most refreshing thing about working with non-Indians was that UK people seemed not to know (or care!) that caste existed.

    OTOH, if they went into a corner shop run by Indians, before paying for anything, they needed to sort the caste issue out. More than one was refused a purchase by an Indian/UK shopkeeper. I found it hard to believe but it definitely happened.

    On the plus side, they established links with some local Indian restaurants and I joined them for some fabulous "off-menu" meals that I never remembered the names of.... :D but they went mad for UK Fish 'n' Chips. It was by far and away their favourite.
    What was the logic of refusing a purchase? I can sort of dimly grasp in principle the notion that some folk might not want to purchase food etc from an unclean caste, but why the other way round?
  • A lot of talk about Starmer ditching all his pledges from the leadership election this morning and last night, but has he really? It's current Labour policy to bring the railways back into public ownership and set up a publicly owned energy company. Labour endlessly bang on about creating green jobs, Gordon Brown is doing a review of the constitution, and there will undoubtedly have to be tax rises on the rich given the current economic situation we are now in. And given the well-timed fracking vote pretty much finished Truss off, Starmer can very much say that he's provided "effective opposition to the Tories." The main pledge Starmer is clearly gone against is promising to retain free movement, but even that might eventually be fulfilled if we did rejoin the EEA under his watch.

    Still, it’s an interesting thought experiment to consider how a Corbyn led Labour would be doing against the current hot mess that is the Tory party. Would Corblab have provided a reason for the Cons to unite behind the utterly useless Truss or would voters stopped caring about the tabloid characterisation of Jezza and turned to the main not-Tory party?

    As far as the EU goes, I see the issue in England being akin to one of those deep, long smouldering peat fires ready to burst back into flames when the conditions are right. Much as I deplore and despise the SKS approach on the EU it’s probably the smart move atm, but if he overdoes the rapprochement with Brussels I think there’s still a handy chunk of voters ready to turn back into slavering EUrophobes once the right wing tabloids get their mojo back.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    Actually. They were in third place. So weren't even electing the LOTO.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited October 2022

    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.

    He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.

    When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
    What's he going to change, and where will the money come from, and how will it improve services?

    Take energy. Just in offshore wind, there's currently a ~£250bn investment pipeline in place before 2030, which he can't disturb. There are also a variety of approaches and programmes in place which would be immensely difficult for a centrally run behemoth.

    I think the Rail Question pretty much answers itself - any more than minimal change and it will make it far worse than the just-below-top-tier-in-Europe status shown by the most recent data I have seen, which will then be on his doorstep.

    Water was privatised iirc for access to investment and to improve service. Which both happened.

    To me the vehement debates about water are all politics and media hype - piss and wind. If you look up the comparative data, we have a system which invests far more and leaks less than the European average (graphs below). We are above average on water consumption, though. The best data we have, but with very variable circs for countries.

    I really don't see any great potential benefit of renationalising things, except as you say 'cover', and a very expensive bone to throw to the mad dogs.

    eg:


    Source:
    https://www.eureau.org/resources/publications/eureau-publications/5824-europe-s-water-in-figures-2021/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
    Nor did they do it Online.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
    Nor did they do it Online.
    And without warning.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052

    Add Brendan Clark to the BBB list just tweeted he has nominated him

    28 more required


    I'm guessing you are going by Guido's spreadsheet?

    His tally may be correct but it may well not be. Cons Home for example has the Boris figure of declared at 51. 15 of Guido's number are hashed in green i.e. anonymous.

    He may get to 100. I suspect now that he probably will.

    However, if Rishi is on c. 160-180 I can't see how Boris has a viable means of power even if he forces a members' vote. William Hague's right: it will send the tory party into a death spiral.

    The grandees need to euthanise the membership (in voting not literally).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    Yes - and even in this political world of mounting absurdities just a little too bonkers to get over the line imo.
    Boris of course won the last general election too, so even if he went to the membership and won it is a completely different scenario to when Truss won the membership having neither won most MPs support or a general election
    That is the one and only sound reason I can see for Tory MPs going for him. It gives some bulwark against the 'no mandate' charge.
    OTOH he was extracted from the PMship precisely because of what he was doing, and not doing, when he held the mandate.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,312
    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand and will ask his supporters to support Mordaunt on the grounds that Penny has a better chance with the members than Rishi. It's a stop Boris strategy. Sunak will get Foreign Secretary and Hunt stays in place.

    If Johnson doesn't get his hundred, then Sunak will be coronated, Mordaunt to Foreign Secretary and Hunt remains in place.

    But Boris may hold back some declared support so it looks as if he's not going to make his hundred fooling Sunak to run. Ten extra Boris supporters come forward at the last minute and gets him over the line.

    So Sunak has to drop out at about 90 votes for Boris to avoid this checkmate.

    I reckon Penny at 20s on Betfair is good value.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Would Johnson risk losing to Sunak or risk losing a GE election .

    He can’t dish out the goodies , doesn’t have the Get Brexit Done mantra and will be overseeing an economy in a terrible state .

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,505

    A lot of talk about Starmer ditching all his pledges from the leadership election this morning and last night, but has he really? It's current Labour policy to bring the railways back into public ownership and set up a publicly owned energy company. Labour endlessly bang on about creating green jobs, Gordon Brown is doing a review of the constitution, and there will undoubtedly have to be tax rises on the rich given the current economic situation we are now in. And given the well-timed fracking vote pretty much finished Truss off, Starmer can very much say that he's provided "effective opposition to the Tories." The main pledge Starmer is clearly gone against is promising to retain free movement, but even that might eventually be fulfilled if we did rejoin the EEA under his watch.

    Still, it’s an interesting thought experiment to consider how a Corbyn led Labour would be doing against the current hot mess that is the Tory party. Would Corblab have provided a reason for the Cons to unite behind the utterly useless Truss or would voters stopped caring about the tabloid characterisation of Jezza and turned to the main not-Tory party?

    As far as the EU goes, I see the issue in England being akin to one of those deep, long smouldering peat fires ready to burst back into flames when the conditions are right. Much as I deplore and despise the SKS approach on the EU it’s probably the smart move atm, but if he overdoes the rapprochement with Brussels I think there’s still a handy chunk of voters ready to turn back into slavering EUrophobes once the right wing tabloids get their mojo back.

    I'm in favour of a 'rapprochment with Brussels' myself - who wants bad relations with a massive trading bloc on your doorstep? But that friendship, and any possible deepening of the relationship, has to come from a position of strength. From Cameron's 'negotiation' on we've played with a disastrously weak hand, because we've negotiated with no credible recourse to an option that the EU liked less than giving us some of what we wanted. In that scenario, I don't blame them for what they've done - good for them.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,635
    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    2m
    Here we go: Former Home Sec and long term Johnson ally Priti Patel comes out in support for Boris Johnson

    Not unexpected. I think this was being trailed almost as soon as the vacancy was announced.
    She's little chance of a job under anyone else so no surprise. Gove, Hunt, Badenoch, Mordaunt are more important.

    Since Ben Wallace was only leaning towards Boris, he hasn't yet got a single big name backer.
    Are you forgetting Rees Mogg one of the casualties in the next GE I would actually toast on a drink ( I do not drink normally)
    In 1997 there were several Tories I was sad to see leave Parliament (the chief among them Rifkind). I joined the party around this time.

    There is no-one worthy of that respect on the Tory benches today. They have lost that right over the last 6 years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    edited October 2022
    The best result for starmer and I suspect the country too is for a Boris Johnson win. According to the sensible pundits on the BBC (quite a rarity) if johnson wins the party will split and there will be a forced general election in a few months.

    The BBC's attempts to be even handed are becoming irritating. They did it with Brexit and they're doing it now. Equal weight is being given to all potential candidates which is why you arrive at the absurd position of having a no-mark like Suella braverman swapping her apparent support for a cabinet seat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    Have you seen the polling?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,526

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    "When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
  • Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand and will ask his supporters to support Mordaunt on the grounds that Penny has a better chance with the members than Rishi. It's a stop Boris strategy. Sunak will get Foreign Secretary and Hunt stays in place.

    If Johnson doesn't get his hundred, then Sunak will be coronated, Mordaunt to Foreign Secretary and Hunt remains in place.

    But Boris may hold back some declared support so it looks as if he's not going to make his hundred fooling Sunak to run. Ten extra Boris supporters come forward at the last minute and gets him over the line.

    So Sunak has to drop out at about 90 votes for Boris to avoid this checkmate.

    I reckon Penny at 20s on Betfair is good value.

    Possibly this with polling commissioned with members over the weekend to see which of Penny or Rishi have the best chance vs the clown. Not sure it is obvious to anyone that Mordaunt is better placed than Rishi, she might be, but she might not.
  • novanova Posts: 472
    Heathener said:

    Add Brendan Clark to the BBB list just tweeted he has nominated him

    28 more required


    I'm guessing you are going by Guido's spreadsheet?

    His tally may be correct but it may well not be. Cons Home for example has the Boris figure of declared at 51. 15 of Guido's number are hashed in green i.e. anonymous.

    He may get to 100. I suspect now that he probably will.

    However, if Rishi is on c. 160-180 I can't see how Boris has a viable means of power even if he forces a members' vote. William Hague's right: it will send the tory party into a death spiral.

    The grandees need to euthanise the membership (in voting not literally).
    If the members have already rejected Rishi once, and Boris has over 100 MPs, including plenty of cabinet ministers and big names, then why would a Boris supporting member really change their vote?

    They could argue that the MPs are putting forward someone who didn't have their confidence, so why should they listen.

    They could argue that the number of MPs supporting Boris is substantial.

    They could also be exactly the kind of people who don't like being told what to do.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    Cicero said:

    The idea that so many Conservative MPs, and possibly even the majority of members could still conceive that Boris Johnson should return to office leaves me in stone cold shock. The fiasco that lead to the announcement of his resignation on July 7th was not some storm in a teacup, it was a systematic revelation of incompetence, ignorance and arrogance. There can surely be little doubt that Johnson was a disastrous failure as a Prime Minister, and the idea that he should, or even could return is an indictment, not just of the man, but the party he led for three years.

    The international alarm bells should now be ringing very loudly. The crushing of dissent at the Chinese Communist Party Congress will lead to a major confrontation with the West within a matter of months or even weeks. The appointment of Sergey Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has unleashed war crimes of a savagery not seen since 1945, and unfortunately it is stabilizing the Russian situation for now. The war is not yet won, but the West is distracted and seemingly uncaring: at a time when more effort is needed. The war is not going away, and Putin still believes that his subversion may still deliver him victory, and in Italy and the United States, his puppets are indeed making progress. Are they doing the same work here?

    And in the middle of this, the United Kingdom faces a farcical rout of leadership. The Conservative Party is not just a pathetic joke at the moment, it is a crime scene. It could not really be worse, and personally the idea that Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak or, God help us, Johnson will be more than placeholders before the inevitable ruin of the Tories makes it essential that we clear the lot out, bag and baggage. Never again should this bunch of tossers, chancers, and fools hold our national destiny in their tiny hands.

    Any surviving PB Tories must be feeling true shame at the disgrace they have unleashed on the country, and as interest rates rise on "political instability", the price being paid by every man, woman and child in Britain is rising by the day. If there was a single patriotic bone in their bodies they would be calling for an early General Election, they know they have failed abjectly, and they know that the Conservative Party deserves the punishment it will get. The only mitigation will be if they go now, not later. The UK needs to clean the stables now. Clinging on to the wreckage will make their doom all the more certain.

    Mene mene tekel upharsin.

    I have been saying in this place since before Truss that the Tories need to go to the country quickly, lose mightily, and start to rebuild.

    The Truss Interlude has proven my case, but we may now be past that point. Even with a substantial rebound, I don't think they will be in as strong a position as they were Before Liz.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited October 2022
    nico679 said:

    The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .

    This shouldn’t even be close .

    I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .

    I think it is rather positive that not only might we have an ethnic minority PM, but actually it isn't even really been part of the discussion. Same now as women standing for PM or women / ethnic minorities being appointed to high up positions in cabinet / shadow cabinet).

    Regardless of his ethnicity and the missteps Sunak has made, the Tories not picking him would be absolutely idiotic. He is the only candidate that has shown he can actually do a difficult job without causing market meltdowns etc.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,312

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    Many of those people are dead and don't care.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Cicero said:

    The idea that so many Conservative MPs, and possibly even the majority of members could still conceive that Boris Johnson should return to office leaves me in stone cold shock. The fiasco that lead to the announcement of his resignation on July 7th was not some storm in a teacup, it was a systematic revelation of incompetence, ignorance and arrogance. There can surely be little doubt that Johnson was a disastrous failure as a Prime Minister, and the idea that he should, or even could return is an indictment, not just of the man, but the party he led for three years.

    The international alarm bells should now be ringing very loudly. The crushing of dissent at the Chinese Communist Party Congress will lead to a major confrontation with the West within a matter of months or even weeks. The appointment of Sergey Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has unleashed war crimes of a savagery not seen since 1945, and unfortunately it is stabilizing the Russian situation for now. The war is not yet won, but the West is distracted and seemingly uncaring: at a time when more effort is needed. The war is not going away, and Putin still believes that his subversion may still deliver him victory, and in Italy and the United States, his puppets are indeed making progress. Are they doing the same work here?

    And in the middle of this, the United Kingdom faces a farcical rout of leadership. The Conservative Party is not just a pathetic joke at the moment, it is a crime scene. It could not really be worse, and personally the idea that Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak or, God help us, Johnson will be more than placeholders before the inevitable ruin of the Tories makes it essential that we clear the lot out, bag and baggage. Never again should this bunch of tossers, chancers, and fools hold our national destiny in their tiny hands.

    Any surviving PB Tories must be feeling true shame at the disgrace they have unleashed on the country, and as interest rates rise on "political instability", the price being paid by every man, woman and child in Britain is rising by the day. If there was a single patriotic bone in their bodies they would be calling for an early General Election, they know they have failed abjectly, and they know that the Conservative Party deserves the punishment it will get. The only mitigation will be if they go now, not later. The UK needs to clean the stables now. Clinging on to the wreckage will make their doom all the more certain.

    Mene mene tekel upharsin.

    The idea that a PM Starmer is going to war with Russia over Ukraine or China over Taiwan potentially any more than the current UK government is is absurd. At most it will continue with NATO position of supplies only not military conflict.

    The Truss Kwarteng budget exacerbated the deficit true but the Conservative Party has now removed both. Whoever becomes PM in the next few years though, Starmer, Sunak or Johnson will still face rising inflation because of the sanctions from the Iraq war and the need to raise taxes or cut spending because of the cost of furlough during the Covid lockdown pre vaccine

  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,659
    Another good day on the renewables. Nearly 50% of generation and we’re exporting a huge amount to France.

    Every mild windy week like this should keep gas storage levels high and put downward pressure on the wholesale price.

    The European outlook is extremely mild for the next 7 days at least. Peaking close to 30C in parts of France and high teens as far East as Poland. Strong zonal flow to keep the turbines spinning.

    Meanwhile it’s still hitting the mid 30s in China on the cusp of November in the most absurdly extreme and prolonged heatwave in recorded history anywhere in the world.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,312
    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    Bookmark this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Making Johnson Prime Minister at this point in disciplinary proceedings is tantamount to making an on remand Harold Shipman, Chairman of the National Health Service.

    Insane
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.

    He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.

    When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
    What's he going to change, and where will the money come from, and how will it improve services?

    Take energy. Just in offshore wind, there's currently a ~£250bn investment pipeline in place before 2030, which he can't disturb. There are also a variety of approaches and programmes in place which would be immensely difficult for a centrally run behemoth.

    I think the Rail Question pretty much answers itself - any more than minimal change and it will make it far worse than the just-below-top-tier-in-Europe status shown by the most recent data I have seen, which will then be on his doorstep.

    Water was privatised iirc for access to investment and to improve service. Which both happened.

    To me the vehement debates about water are all politics and media hype - piss and wind. If you look up the comparative data, we have a system which invests far more and leaks less than the European average (graphs below). We are above average on water consumption, though. The best data we have, but with very variable circs for countries.

    I really don't see any great potential benefit of renationalising things, except as you say 'cover', and a very expensive bone to throw to the mad dogs.

    [snip!]
    All very true, but the politics (or optics) of the current situation is not good. People have their backs to the wall in terms of energy bills and the reports of energy companies collectively paying out billions in dividends does not go down well.

    It is an emotive issue and "reasonable" argument will not get very far...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    nico679 said:

    The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .

    This shouldn’t even be close .

    I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .

    I think it is rather positive that not only might we have an ethnic minority PM, but actually it isn't even really been part of the discussion. Same now as women standing for PM or women / ethnic minorities being appointed to high up positions in cabinet / shadow cabinet).
    It saves arguing whether Welsh native speakers count as an ethnic minority for the 'first e. m. PM', too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    Can people ask for details about the house before deciding whether to take this bet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
    Johnson like Trudeau also won the last general election.

    Indeed Johnson unlike Trudeau won a majority of seats in the Commons and the popular vote, not most seats in a hung parliament but second on votes. So while you could say Truss had no mandate from voters until the next general election Johnson does.

    Indeed in 2003 Paul Martin was elected Liberal leader and PM by Liberal delegates not MPs too before winning most seats at the 2004 Canadian election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965
    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand and will ask his supporters to support Mordaunt on the grounds that Penny has a better chance with the members than Rishi. It's a stop Boris strategy. Sunak will get Foreign Secretary and Hunt stays in place.

    If Johnson doesn't get his hundred, then Sunak will be coronated, Mordaunt to Foreign Secretary and Hunt remains in place.

    But Boris may hold back some declared support so it looks as if he's not going to make his hundred fooling Sunak to run. Ten extra Boris supporters come forward at the last minute and gets him over the line.

    So Sunak has to drop out at about 90 votes for Boris to avoid this checkmate.

    I reckon Penny at 20s on Betfair is good value.

    I'm sticking to the knitting of laying Muscles but that does seem generous on Mordaunt. Interesting theory too.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    Hopefully.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.

    He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.

    When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
    What's he going to change, and where will the money come from, and how will it improve services?

    Take energy. Just in offshore wind, there's currently a ~£250bn investment pipeline in place before 2030, which he can't disturb. There are also a variety of approaches and programmes in place which would be immensely difficult for a centrally run behemoth.

    I think the Rail Question pretty much answers itself - any more than minimal change and it will make it far worse than the just-below-top-tier-in-Europe status shown by the most recent data I have seen, which will then be on his doorstep.

    Water was privatised iirc for access to investment and to improve service. Which both happened.

    To me the vehement debates about water are all politics and media hype - piss and wind. If you look up the comparative data, we have a system which invests far more and leaks less than the European average (graphs below). We are above average on water consumption, though. The best data we have, but with very variable circs for countries.

    I really don't see any great potential benefit of renationalising things, except as you say 'cover', and a very expensive bone to throw to the mad dogs.

    eg:


    Source:
    https://www.eureau.org/resources/publications/eureau-publications/5824-europe-s-water-in-figures-2021/
    Energy is interesting - there's production, infrastructure and the bullshit fantasy of competition in what basically amounts to billing.

    It would be comparatively easy to "privatise" one of those tiers.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 895
    nico679 said:

    Would Johnson risk losing to Sunak or risk losing a GE election .

    He can’t dish out the goodies , doesn’t have the Get Brexit Done mantra and will be overseeing an economy in a terrible state .

    But he gets to sit in the big chair.

    The big chair. That's the important thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    The Tories can send out an amazing statement to the rest of the world by putting in place the first UK PM from an ethnic minority or they can put in place a pathological liar who has shamed the office of PM .

    This shouldn’t even be close .

    I say this as a Labour supporter but I think Sunak being PM would be a great advert for the UK .

    I think it is rather positive that not only might we have an ethnic minority PM, but actually it isn't even really been part of the discussion. Same now as women standing for PM or women / ethnic minorities being appointed to high up positions in cabinet / shadow cabinet).
    It saves arguing whether Welsh native speakers count as an ethnic minority for the 'first e. m. PM', too.
    Since Disraeli beat Lloyd George to it, the point is moot.
  • nova said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scaling latest up to 357 10:10 22 Oct


    Boris dropping below 100 on BBC figures

    I hate to say it, but surely we have to consider
    there's a good chance that Guido's anonymous Boris supporters are real - and that massively skews the rounding up from the BBC figures.

    I'd also assume that if it's clearly a two way fight any of Mourdant's supporters who are Boris>Rishi will move to Boris.
    Let's look at things rationally. Which candidate - if you are an MP - are you worried about the reaction of you declaring publicly for them?

    I don't see any downside to a MP declaring publicity for Rishi. He's the 'sensible' choice. There's safety in numbers and, even if BJ did get in, he'd have to appoint some of them. He was in the top 2 last time and clearly the 'establishment' preferred option.

    Similarly, with Mourdaunt. Top 3 last time, entirely plausible as a candidate even if there are doubts. You will not get any brickbats for these two.

    So I think both of these candidates' figures are fair.

    However, BJ is a different story, especially if you had publicly said before he had to go. I can see why many would decide to keep it quiet until it was certain he would run / be in with a good chance. Any who voiced their support now would risk being cut out of a job down the line.

    So, yes, I can see why many may not be willing to back BJ publicly.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675

    Harry Taylor
    @HarryTaylr
    Sky News reporter Mark Stone, who is on the flight with Boris Johnson back from the Dominican Republic to Gatwick, said that Johnson was booed by passengers as he boarded.

    This is classic twitter nonsense...headline tweet says something that people will take as whole plane booed him. Actual quote from Mark Stone, a couple of people did, most were bemused to see him there.

    Its also done in the disingenuous sly way that they write the first part (in attempt to get shared, with link to the actual quote 2 tweets down, that nobody will read).
    To be honest I didn't read "booed by passengers" as meaning booed by all the passengers.
    Personally, much as I dislike Johnson I wouldn't boo him if he was on my plane with his family coming back from holiday, and I would imagine most people would feel the same. People should have better manners.
    The attempt of the disingenuous tweeter is to give a particular impression, otherwise could have tweeted a couple of people....and i think it unremarkable. As you say most people are polite, but always get one or two idiots whoever it might be, thus it says nothing about real feelings positive or negative (albeit i think we all know Boris might think he has Churchillian popularity when he doesn't).
    His mention was booed by the entire audience if the News Quiz fwiw
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    edited October 2022
    For any of you who missed the very early morning fracas from @Casino_Royale , I've now worked out what was behind his extreme irascibility (not just towards me).

    He's in deep on Rishi. At first I thought it must be Boris but it's the right idea but the wrong candidate. He stands to lose a lot if Boris wins.

    His argument runs like this.

    People like me (lefties) should not be posting opinions about this contest here or anywhere because:

    1. Tory MPs and party members read this site

    2. They will look at the fact lefties want Rishi to win and assume that

    3. This is a Machiavellian scheme to do anything to avoid having to face Boris

    4. Ergo we should stop saying we hope Rishi wins because we may lose Casino Royale a heap of money


    The many fallacies of this include, but are not limited to, the following:

    1. Posters like me are unlikely to have any influence whatsoever on those voting in this contest

    2. Not only am I a centrist but I actually care about this country. I am prepared to see a sensible figure win, even though I believe he would avoid a tory election wipeout, because we cannot go through 2 more years of turmoil

    3. I don't mind if Labour, LibDems, SNP, Greens face Boris next time. In many ways I'd like to lance the boil of this utter nonsense that the man is a winner. He's a wicked idiot and there is SO much ammunition against him that it will be easy pickings for the opposition parties against him next time around.

    4. Money can drive people mad. So can being a Conservative at the moment.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,307
    What's the possibility of a one-off wealth/windfall tax? The Tories don't want to raise state spending % of GDP but this would assist with the overall debt position and interest payments.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    TimS said:

    Another good day on the renewables. Nearly 50% of generation and we’re exporting a huge amount to France.

    Every mild windy week like this should keep gas storage levels high and put downward pressure on the wholesale price.

    The European outlook is extremely mild for the next 7 days at least. Peaking close to 30C in parts of France and high teens as far East as Poland. Strong zonal flow to keep the turbines spinning.

    Meanwhile it’s still hitting the mid 30s in China on the cusp of November in the most absurdly extreme and prolonged heatwave in recorded history anywhere in the world.

    I have a wildly optimistic theory that there will be a sunny, windy Sunday, around noo n, next June when we will get a period of zero gas use for electricity production.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    "When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
    Change our government ?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 895


    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.

    They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.

    Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.

    Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
    I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
    Actually I think it's in Johnson's interest not to come back at this stage. Allow himself to be "thwarted" by self-serving MPs, hapless stooge Sunak to lose the next election and come back in triumph after the election on a betrayal narrative. That's the Berlusconi playbook Johnson tends to follow.

    I believe this is the subtext to Telegraph type commentary by eg Charles Moore saying he should sit this one out "in the national interest". They actually mean Johnson's interest.
    I don't see how Johnson comes back in triumph after the next election unless he somehow gets gifted a safer seat. Is that likely? Not sure of the mechanisms here.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    Barnesian said:

    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    Bookmark this.
    Fair enough. If you have the good grace to admit when (if) you got this wrong.

    Sunak won't pull out. That's just bonkers, sorry. I didn't go into the rest of your argument for it but whilst it was intriguing in a murder mystery kind of way, it was so convoluted as to be unbelievable.

    Rishi Sunak will not pull out. The one who will come under pressure to do so will be Boris Johnson.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    "When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.
    Ultimately the salami slice is what will happen. If we aren't to remain permanently disadvantaged, we will come to a variety of arrangements with the EU that ease the current strife. These will be broadly popular and/or neutral: from being able to use the fast track passport queues of old (as freedom of movement will be rebranded), to free-er trade arrangements.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    What's more if Johnson wins after Rishi is the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs (all but a few from the Great Red Wall of Thickodom) then the the chances of the Party splitting is a certainty
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    ohnotnow said:



    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.

    This would seem to be the opposite of "withdraw".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    MaxPB said:

    Well.


    If only he hadn't sullied himself by taking a job in Liz Truss' government. What a poor idea that was.
    There will be more rejoicing in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous persons who do not need to repent
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    This will likely come way too late for the midterms - but the Fed ought not to be continuing to increase interest rates.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1583257722027327489
    BREAKING: Major DROP in US inflation is coming, according to IMF as well as the fixed income markets.

    IMF forecasts US inflation back to normal levels (around 2% annually) within a year. Markets predicting biggest drop in inflation since 2008.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    What's more if Johnson wins after Rishi is the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs (all but a few from the Great Red Wall of Thickodom) then the the chances of the Party splitting is a certainty
    Not under FPTP
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    ohnotnow said:



    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.

    Are we Ready for Rishi...'s announcement?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,806
    As someone who is traditionally on the right of the political spectrum (though have voted Green and LD in the past, as well as spoiling a large number of ballot papers), I said to friends that there was no way I could vote Tory with Truss as leader.

    The same would now be true if Johnson were to return to power. He is an impressive communicator when he chooses to be and can generate enthusiasm. But he is just too tainted now to be a credible leader.

    I don't believe the committee investigation into him will be carried out in a fair manner. It is clearly a political operation and thus not bound by traditional legal processes and rules but it still feels like it has been set up to deliver a predetermined outcome. That is not to say that he should evade scrutiny. It is just that the committee is not the right way of doing that fairly.

    It is a process that is going to happen and that should make it impossible for him to return.

    I don't know if I could vote for a Sunak Tory Party. Locally I know I can't vote for the horror that is Layla Moran. Domestic abusers have no place in public office.

    I may have to spoil my ballot again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    mwadams said:

    ohnotnow said:



    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.

    This would seem to be the opposite of "withdraw".
    Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

    Like Johnson, instead of withdrawing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
    Johnson like Trudeau also won the last general election.

    Indeed Johnson unlike Trudeau won a majority of seats in the Commons and the popular vote, not most seats in a hung parliament but second on votes. So while you could say Truss had no mandate from voters until the next general election Johnson does.

    Indeed in 2003 Paul Martin was elected Liberal leader and PM by Liberal delegates not MPs too before winning most seats at the 2004 Canadian election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election
    Johnson had a mandate.
    Ex PM Johnson no longer does, and to pretend otherwise is pitiful casuistry.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    Bookmark this.
    Fair enough. If you have the good grace to admit when (if) you got this wrong.

    Sunak won't pull out. That's just bonkers, sorry. I didn't go into the rest of your argument for it but whilst it was intriguing in a murder mystery kind of way, it was so convoluted as to be unbelievable.

    Rishi Sunak will not pull out. The one who will come under pressure to do so will be Boris Johnson.
    Correct.
    If anything his supporters will strong arm the situation 'the MPs vote is clear, johnson does not have our confidence. Vote accordingly and be fully forewarned of the consequences of not doing so'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675

    PM 4 PM is fucked needing half the remaining undeclared.

    Her only hope is Boris pulls out

    She's not supposed to be nominated, unless the clown makes it in
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    Making Johnson Prime Minister at this point in disciplinary proceedings is tantamount to making an on remand Harold Shipman, Chairman of the National Health Service.

    Insane

    It would appear that there are two motivating factors behind those backing Johnson.

    1. Mental Boris cultists who worship him (and would burn Sunak at the stake if they got the chance)
    2. MPs, particularly in seats gained in 2019, who compute that, whilst the return of Johnson is more likely to see some Southern colleagues get displaced by the Lib Dems, they might have a slightly better chance of surviving against Labour with him in place than with Sunak

    Neither of these groups gives a toss that Johnson is a negligent, flippant, incompetent waste of oxygen who cares about no-one and nothing other than himself.

    The common thread in this religious fundamentalism and self-serving calculation is a complete disregard for the interest and welfare of the country and its people, which Tory politicians, collectively, ceased to care about years ago. It's all about fighting each other for control, settling scores, or simple survival now. They all deserve to be swept away, the whole damned lot of them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    As someone who is traditionally on the right of the political spectrum (though have voted Green and LD in the past, as well as spoiling a large number of ballot papers), I said to friends that there was no way I could vote Tory with Truss as leader.

    The same would now be true if Johnson were to return to power. He is an impressive communicator when he chooses to be and can generate enthusiasm. But he is just too tainted now to be a credible leader.

    I don't believe the committee investigation into him will be carried out in a fair manner. It is clearly a political operation and thus not bound by traditional legal processes and rules but it still feels like it has been set up to deliver a predetermined outcome. That is not to say that he should evade scrutiny. It is just that the committee is not the right way of doing that fairly.

    It is a process that is going to happen and that should make it impossible for him to return.

    I don't know if I could vote for a Sunak Tory Party. Locally I know I can't vote for the horror that is Layla Moran. Domestic abusers have no place in public office.

    I may have to spoil my ballot again.

    Ha. I've just emailed my (Red Wall Tory) MP to explain that a Johnson lead party will lose the Tories any chance of my vote in any elections until BJ is defenestrated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    My guess at what's going on.

    If Johnson gets his hundred, Sunak will not stand .

    You have GOT to be kidding?!

    There is no chance whatsoever that Sunak will pull out. He is the frontrunner and will win amongst MPs. He's the only one who can command the support of the parliamentary party.

    I'll bet my house that Rishi will not pull out of this.
    What's more if Johnson wins after Rishi is the overwhelming choice of Tory MPs (all but a few from the Great Red Wall of Thickodom) then the the chances of the Party splitting is a certainty
    Not under FPTP
    Apart from a few going to the complete failure that was ChangeUK the vast majority of Labour MPs stayed in Labour under Corbyn despite the fact he was never the choice of most Labour MPs but only most members because of FPTP
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Nigelb said:

    This will likely come way too late for the midterms - but the Fed ought not to be continuing to increase interest rates.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1583257722027327489
    BREAKING: Major DROP in US inflation is coming, according to IMF as well as the fixed income markets.

    IMF forecasts US inflation back to normal levels (around 2% annually) within a year. Markets predicting biggest drop in inflation since 2008.

    And all they had to do was fuck up the entire world economy to maybe get there in a year, possibly.
    Fed is a cancer
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    edited October 2022
    TimS said:

    Another good day on the renewables. Nearly 50% of generation and we’re exporting a huge amount to France.

    Every mild windy week like this should keep gas storage levels high and put downward pressure on the wholesale price.

    The European outlook is extremely mild for the next 7 days at least. Peaking close to 30C in parts of France and high teens as far East as Poland. Strong zonal flow to keep the turbines spinning.

    Meanwhile it’s still hitting the mid 30s in China on the cusp of November in the most absurdly extreme and prolonged heatwave in recorded history anywhere in the world.

    Do we know how much gas consumption has risen in the UK this month compared to the average rise in October?

    I've managed to avoid putting the central heating on so far although I did light the stove on Tuesday because it was so cold and wet. But equally, I don't like the house particularly warm and I live on my own so I've no children or older people to worry about.

    Also I have a massive sunroom which has been much enjoying all this autumn sunlight.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited October 2022
    Sunak 1.38
    Johnson 4.4
    Mordaunt 21
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,659
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Another good day on the renewables. Nearly 50% of generation and we’re exporting a huge amount to France.

    Every mild windy week like this should keep gas storage levels high and put downward pressure on the wholesale price.

    The European outlook is extremely mild for the next 7 days at least. Peaking close to 30C in parts of France and high teens as far East as Poland. Strong zonal flow to keep the turbines spinning.

    Meanwhile it’s still hitting the mid 30s in China on the cusp of November in the most absurdly extreme and prolonged heatwave in recorded history anywhere in the world.

    I have a wildly optimistic theory that there will be a sunny, windy Sunday, around noo n, next June when we will get a period of zero gas use for electricity production.
    We seem to get regularly down to a trough of about 2.8-3gw of gas but no lower on very windy days even when wind turbines are reportedly being disconnected, so I wonder if there is some base load gas that always runs for some financial reason. Perhaps a particularly cheap few power stations, or a need to get through a minimum amount of gas to make room for new LNG deliveries. It’s a bit of a mystery.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    David Frost
    @DavidGHFrost
    Boris Johnson will always be a hero for delivering Brexit.

    But we must move on. It is simply not right to risk repeating the chaos & confusion of the last year.

    The Tory Party must get behind a capable leader who can deliver a Conservative programme. That is
    @RishiSunak
    . 1/2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    81,839 Liberal Party members elected Trudeau their leader in 2013.
    They were in opposition, not government.
    And HYUFD wrecks his own argument. "elected .... *their* leader". Not the PM of Canada. Quite different.
    Johnson like Trudeau also won the last general election.

    Indeed Johnson unlike Trudeau won a majority of seats in the Commons and the popular vote, not most seats in a hung parliament but second on votes. So while you could say Truss had no mandate from voters until the next general election Johnson does.

    Indeed in 2003 Paul Martin was elected Liberal leader and PM by Liberal delegates not MPs too before winning most seats at the 2004 Canadian election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election
    Johnson had a mandate.
    Ex PM Johnson no longer does, and to pretend otherwise is pitiful casuistry.
    General elections give up to 5 year terms, Johnson therefore still has a mandate until January 2025 in the unlikely event he not Rishi becomes PM
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Alun Cairns practicing for whoever the new leader will be.

    https://twitter.com/sherpajacob/status/1583568577848029184?s=46&t=Om3cinwdGGC__2Tkit_zHg
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    MattW said:

    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?

    Second place has to stand down if they are validly nominated.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297


    David Frost
    @DavidGHFrost
    Boris Johnson will always be a hero for delivering Brexit.

    But we must move on. It is simply not right to risk repeating the chaos & confusion of the last year.

    The Tory Party must get behind a capable leader who can deliver a Conservative programme. That is
    @RishiSunak
    . 1/2

    Significant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    MattW said:

    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?

    If only one MP makes the 100 threshold, or if it's 250 vs 100 there will be immense pressure on the second candidate to give way as they don't have the support of the MPs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?

    If only one MP makes the 100 threshold, or if it's 250 vs 100 there will be immense pressure on the second candidate to give way as they don't have the support of the MPs.
    Johnson has the support of members.

    Mogg, Dorries, Trevelyan, Sharma...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,312
    ohnotnow said:



    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.

    Why is he delaying? What could the reasons be? He knows he's miles ahead with MPs.

  • Nigelb said:

    This will likely come way too late for the midterms - but the Fed ought not to be continuing to increase interest rates.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1583257722027327489
    BREAKING: Major DROP in US inflation is coming, according to IMF as well as the fixed income markets.

    IMF forecasts US inflation back to normal levels (around 2% annually) within a year. Markets predicting biggest drop in inflation since 2008.

    And all they had to do was fuck up the entire
    world economy to maybe get there in a year,
    possibly.
    Fed is a cancer
    Agreed but they had political pressure on them as well to 'do something' about inflation ahead of the Midterms

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    NEW: This quite something. Frost endorses Sunak. Frost once a key ally and advisor of Johnson. When PM Johnson awarded Frost a peerage and brought him into his cabinet. Also a key voice on the right of the party. Sunak team will take this as a big win.

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583778106309214210
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.
    Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.
    So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?
    Everything short of Rejoin including either Switzerland or Norway is perfectly compatible with Brexit. Formal Rejoin would require an explicit mandate, either at a GE or by referendum.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited October 2022
    Sunak 1/3
    Johnson 4/1
    Mordaunt 23/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    NEW: This quite something. Frost endorses Sunak. Frost once a key ally and advisor of Johnson. When PM Johnson awarded Frost a peerage and brought him into his cabinet. Also a key voice on the right of the party. Sunak team will take this as a big win.

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583778106309214210

    Wow. He's even getting the nutters behind him?

    That's a bit of a step change.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?

    If only one MP makes the 100 threshold, or if it's 250 vs 100 there will be immense pressure on the second candidate to give way as they don't have the support of the MPs.
    Not if the second candidate's name is Alexander Johnson. Self-awareness won't come into the equation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    Nigelb said:

    This will likely come way too late for the midterms - but the Fed ought not to be continuing to increase interest rates.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1583257722027327489
    BREAKING: Major DROP in US inflation is coming, according to IMF as well as the fixed income markets.

    IMF forecasts US inflation back to normal levels (around 2% annually) within a year. Markets predicting biggest drop in inflation since 2008.

    Wouldn't be surprised; fuel dropped by over 25% just during my recent trip.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    Barnesian said:

    ohnotnow said:



    Looks like Rishi is going to announce today then.

    Why is he delaying? What could the reasons be? He knows he's miles ahead with MPs.

    Every big name that comes out for him not Boris probably makes the decision a little bit easier.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656
    IanB2 said:

    PM 4 PM is fucked needing half the remaining undeclared.

    Her only hope is Boris pulls out

    She's not supposed to be nominated, unless the clown makes it in
    Yup. It’s good for Sunak if Boris gets 80 or 90 odd. At around that point I reckon he has it closed out so only he has 100 nominations.

    Something like:

    Sunak 200

    Boris 90

    PM 60

    PM into a senior Cabinet roll and Boris as Ukraine tsar and moved into a safe seat to keep him happy. Boris agrees to sprinkle star dust in the red wall in 2024.
  • ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    I understand the emotion but that's sort of irrational because the ERG can be ejected by a vote, whereas you are locked into Brussels by treaty - the threshold for change is immeasurably higher, and it's really shit or bust.

    I share your frustration with the ERG, btw.
    It's not irrational, as the ERG are incompetent fuckwits who are deliberately and accidentally injurious to the country. And I cannot eject the ERG with a vote: my MP is not an ERGer.

    Brussels, for all its faults, is more competent. And again, I find it hard to write that.

    As an aside, how safe are the seats of the likes of JRM, Fox and Baker? Is there a possibility a rump Conservative Party would have more ERGers than sane Tories?
    Wycombe's marginal. A strong tactical operation by Labour hoovering up Lib Dem votes would see it go even without any swing from the Tories.

    North Somerset and North East Somerset both have the problem that there's no one obvious challenger, although Labour held NE Somerset's predecessor seat of Wansdyke until 2010. I would have thought they're pretty safe.

    Although I'm not sure Fox will stand again in North Somerset. He is over 60 and he seems rather disengaged these days.
    Labour should win North East Somerset and will certainly be the main anti-Tory contender based on current polling. Notionally it would have been a neck and neck seat in 2005 when Labour's GB lead was just 3%. There was a lot of misguided hype there in 2019 - naively based on the May 2019 EU election results - to the effect that the LDs were the main challengers. The LDs still came 3rd - despite Brexit and anti-Corbyn factors - though their efforts did significantly boost JRM's majority.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    ydoethur said:

    People are talking about the security issues with an online vote.

    But in this case, that might actually work in democracy's favour.

    Who could hack into the voting system? Obviously, a hostile state - Russia, North Korea. Possibly a very organised non-state actor.

    But - who would they rig the vote for?

    If they want crazy, then Johnson is your man. But there is zero chance Putin will vote for him. Russian interests would possibly - not definitely - be better served by Sunak, as a bean counter, or Mordaunt, as an inexperienced unknown quantity. So Sunak it would be - which would benefit the country enormously. And would it make a difference in Ukraine? Almost certainly not.

    As for a non-state actor - Johnson to watch the world burn? Perhaps. But that would almost certainly lead in very short order to a Labour government, which because they are no longer demented Stalinists or Fascist apologists is disliked by almost all extremist groups.

    In this case, I think a rigged vote is a red herring. And the speed of deciding this way more than cancels out the fairly small risks.

    Sunak was Johnson’s Chancellor during all the time Johnson was supporting Ukraine. Neither Sunak nor Mordaunt offer a change in the UK’s Ukraine policy. So Putin may hate Johnson, but looking at this cold-heartedly, all 3 likely candidates are the same on that dimension. Ergo, Russia has to decide on other factors: who will create most chaos in the West. There the answer is simple: Johnson.

    Russia is not sentimental about who they support. They’ll support racists, environmentalists, left-wingers, right-wingers. They’ll support Johnson if they think he undermines British power… which clearly he does.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    All those who have nominated the clown should be nowhere near the cabinet if Sunak wins.

    They were willing to re-install the pathological liar .

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656


    David Frost
    @DavidGHFrost
    Boris Johnson will always be a hero for delivering Brexit.

    But we must move on. It is simply not right to risk repeating the chaos & confusion of the last year.

    The Tory Party must get behind a capable leader who can deliver a Conservative programme. That is
    @RishiSunak
    . 1/2

    That’s the ball game.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    A serious question:

    What are the conditions for a coronation? Is it X% of the MP vote, or does the 2nd place candidate have to stand down?

    If only one MP makes the 100 threshold, or if it's 250 vs 100 there will be immense pressure on the second candidate to give way as they don't have the support of the MPs.
    And who do we know is good at resisting immense pressure from the party? Johnson.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,757
    I assume that Rishi is delaying any announcement until he has finished and passed the intensive training programme he is undertaking on 'How to fill your own car with petrol and pay for it'.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    nico679 said:

    All those who have nominated the clown should be nowhere near the cabinet if Sunak wins.

    They were willing to re-install the pathological liar .

    I mostly agree but on a pragmatic level, in order to try and stop the party splitting doesn't he have to reach out to the right a little?
This discussion has been closed.