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This has major betting implications – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,985
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    biggles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Meanwhile, under the radar:

    The NHS Interim Service Specification proposal is seismic:

    -Puberty blockers only prescribed for research
    -Safeguarding of children obtaining unregulated hormones
    -Limit on social transition
    -Acknowledgement that most cases of dysphoria do not persist
    -Focus on mental health


    https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1583747787807948800

    Be interesting if Imelda allows them in Scotland NHS.
    Will be interesting as so far the Holyrood Committee on GRA reform has barely listened to any contrary evidence. Like Mordaunt she’s fallen for the vacuous. TWAW woo.
    Does a person who lives in England have any ability to seek treatment in Scotland? I know there’s a lot of cross-pollination between England and Wales (using GPs in the other country because it’s geographically logical) but that’s a very different border for the most part. The England/Scotland border is fairly sparsely populated along most of the length.

    If such a right exists, there’s going to be issues.
    If they start treatment in Scotland then expect it to be continued in England (where it’s against guidelines) there likely will be issues.

    There’s going to be issues with Scotlands GRA reform - is such recognition going to be recognised in the rest of the U.K.?
    In principle, no different from any other drug or treatment. The differtent approval systems mean that there are some cases where the one treatmenty can be had in one country but not the other, and vice versa (with a subvariant, presuimably, of whether it can be had if you pay). You want one of those treatments, you move.
    There are going to be a number of substantial claims for children damaged by this process already. Does Scotland really want more? The NHS English guidelines seem eminently sensible to me.
    Much of this [edit] NHS England proposal seems from the summary to be to do with under age children and the decision making problem, which is distinct from anything else to do with gender (albeit puberty is the issye here). And GRA reform is not the same thing as NHS policy, or what is clinically decided to be acceptable treatment in the Scottish equivalent of NICE (I forget the name momentarily). The previous posters seem to be lumping these three processes together, though obviously they are connected. And it seems to me that doctors will not do it if they don't have clinical approval and therefore medical insurance.
    SNHS is shocking just now following Sturgeon's woke weird theories on gender etc
  • NEW THREAD

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,026
    kinabalu said:

    Ratters said:

    I think there's a growing chance Sunak will close this out in the nomination round. Momentum on his side and MPs want to be on the right side of the new leader.

    That's the most likely outcome imo. All over on Monday. Sunak.

    Looking that way. I suggested this yesterday during peak Boris excitement.

    It will be wonderful if the wicked clown can't make 100.

  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20

    Barney said:

    Barnesian said:

    TimS said:

    Barnesian said:

    ..

    Conversely if Boris looks like struggling to hit 100, I think a lot of anyone-but-Rishi MPs might throw their weight behind Mordaunt at the last minute to ensure a runoff.

    Mordaunt might well then win with the members. So not completely over for her yet.
    Mordaunt withdraws before a vote, the deal was done in the week
    That would be dangerous. Some of her supporters might go for Boris and tip him over 100.

    Unless you mean she made a deal with Boris? Unlikely surely?
    No i mean after nominations close. There will be no Sunak Mordaunt run off. Its Sunak Bozo or Coronation
    But if he hasn’t got 100 nominations when nominations close he’s out - whether or not Mordaunt subsequently withdraws. Her supporters can’t wind back the clock and nominate him retrospectively.
    Yes i know, and if Mordaunt has just over 100 she withdraws after nominations close
    Sorry - I misunderstood you. I suppose she might wait until after the MPs vote (which I understand to be separate from the nominations process and which will take place even if there are only two candidates) before doing that, though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    BREAKING:

    Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”

    Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:

    Puma IFVs
    Self-propelled howitzers
    Corvettes
    Frigates
    Eurofighters
    potentially F-35s (downsized)


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,624
    MaxPB said:

    Well.


    If only he hadn't sullied himself by taking a job in Liz Truss' government. What a poor idea that was.
    To be fair it was Tom Tugendhat’s PPS so I don’t think you can really criticise that too much
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Have taken profit on the BoJo to get 100 noms market

    So it was you! I was just composing a message that Boris was odds-against, and I looked up again and he wasn't.
    That "will he get to 100?" was (is) an interesting market to track against the main one.
    Your posts on this subject have been some of the most stable and professional betting tips I've seen yet on here.

    Bravo.
    Well thank you and that gets a double :smile::smile:

    But I guess we should wait till the fat man sings (his withdrawal or concession or "I was never thinking of it") before spending any winnings. Tempt fate and all that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,254
    Mighty Reds!!!!!!!!!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    It really does sound absurd.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
    Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>

    How is being elected by 356 people an improvement on 80,000.
    Because one would hope these 365 elected, on our behalf officials, are substantially better informed than the 80,000 unwashed. Parliamentary democracy at work- sort of...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    Andy_JS said:

    Boris and Trump being in charge again is quite a thought.

    A very disturbing thought ...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,752
    Deleted
This discussion has been closed.