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This has major betting implications – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,510

    Funnily enough, I was in Uxbridge this week. First time in my life.

    Had a very nice sausage and brown sauce sarnie from the local greasy spoon. Nae bad either.

    Was that the one in The Arcade?
    Used to go there a few times when we lived in Uxbridge a few (checks calendar) Hell’s Bells, a dozen years ago and more.

    Granny’s, I think it was called. Excellent for breakfasts. Hope it’s still there.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555
    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Elizabeth II

    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
    I'm no monarchist and I do think the Queen made some missteps over the years (who doesn't?), but to some extent I think in a ceremonial monarchy you rather *want* it to seem like the monarch is not making active decisions but only doing what they 'must' do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.
  • Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    In recent years…

    Robin Cook
    John Smith
    Ken Clarke
    William Hague

    Would have been interesting to see in number 10. Maybe not post war greats, but all a million miles better than recent incumbents.

    Clarke and Ashdown for me. Hague is a bit meh, not sure on Cook, Smith an equivalent to Starmer, would have been fine but nothing special. Rory the ex Tory deserves a slight mention too, he would have been really good in 2019, a scenario where most politicians, even the better ones, would have struggled.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    If Johnson gets to say, 90 nominations, and only Sunak makes the threshold, there's going to be some very disgruntled members.
    And a substantial internal opposition in Parliament.*

    *Of course. There'll be that anyways.
    But are they really going to be that disgruntled, if they can see that Sunak has twice as much support among MPs as Johnson?
    Yes
    They're good at that. And at letting people know.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    His seat was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
    The Conservatives have a particular challenge here. Who, other than those at the extremes, are going to tie themselves to the Tory brand, while it is so badly tarnished?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    Perhaps the tories have just lost the idea/vision that they are the party of sensible government. They have become radicals, but cannot agree on what they are radical about after having 'got Brexit done'. If they carry on along this path then they will end up fracturing / splitting / becoming electorally irellevant. Perhaps that is just their fate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Given their combined wealth and that he is trading at 3.0 this morning, it seems that they are either financially illiterate or not convinced by their own words.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,931

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Fingers crossed 🤞

    It did smell like the Boris campaign was trying to bounce him quickly onto the ticket. They were quite successful and dominated the early ‘campaign’ . It will be interesting to see if his arrival back from Carribean butlins gives him another shove. If not, that story might be over.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    If Johnson gets to say, 90 nominations, and only Sunak makes the threshold, there's going to be some very disgruntled members.
    And a substantial internal opposition in Parliament.*

    *Of course. There'll be that anyways.
    But are they really going to be that disgruntled, if they can see that Sunak has twice as much support among MPs as Johnson?
    Yes
    They're good at that. And at letting people know.
    Well, I daresay a lot of people are disgruntled with Tory party members too.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    Perhaps the tories have just lost the idea/vision that they are the party of sensible government. They have become radicals, but cannot agree on what they are radical about after having 'got Brexit done'. If they carry on along this path then they will end up fracturing / splitting / becoming electorally irellevant. Perhaps that is just their fate.
    My view is that it is like Mrs Slocombe's pussy*.

    Post war, and prior to 1992, the Tories were mostly Nation, with a bit of Party. The fact that everyone knew there was a hefty slice of party interest was balanced by the belief that they were working for the betterment of the nation. (Even if you disagreed and felt that they failed to recognize that the nation didn't always look like a Tory.)

    Post 1992, the Tories shifted, until today we see a party that is mostly Party with a just a hint of Nation. And that is their undoing.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    edited October 2022

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
  • darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    Perhaps the tories have just lost the idea/vision that they are the party of sensible government. They have become radicals, but cannot agree on what they are radical about after having 'got Brexit done'. If they carry on along this path then they will end up fracturing / splitting / becoming electorally irellevant. Perhaps that is just their fate.
    Yes, very few of the Tories want to conserve and slowly develop the status quo. Some want to become Singapore, others America, others to hark back to the 1950s, others to hark back to the world of Thatcher. For all their faux patriotism a lot of them don't seem to like current UK very much.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    Jonathan said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Elizabeth II
    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
    Truss made more mistakes in 40days than HM made in 70 years!
    TBF to Truss, HMQ spent a lot of time glad-handing people and throwing dinner parties. That was a large part of the job description as was never saying anything of consequence.

    Truss had a harder job on her hands, although I think that if she had been crowned Queen, she would have messed that up as well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    I get a sense that Tory MPs are waking up to the disaster that a Boris II premiership would be for them, all out of a job in two years. Yesterday's momentum seems to have evaporated this morning now that they have had a chance to speak to their partners and sleep on it.

    I think Boris may only get 70-80 nominations in the end and that extra push by his loyalists for non loyalists to lend him votes to "let the members decide" will go unheard. It may even be that Boris sees this coming and will cut a deal with Rishi to come back as foreign secretary rather than stand and lose. He can then be the point man on Ukraine, which he desperately wants and having Boris there helps Rishi to dispel any ambiguity around his commitment to Ukraine as well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    edited October 2022
    I have just dipped into the comments section on the order-order spreadsheet page.

    Good grief, the incoherency of those comments!

    Makes PB seem extremely erudite in comparison.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    pm215 said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Elizabeth II

    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
    I'm no monarchist and I do think the Queen made some missteps over the years (who doesn't?), but to some extent I think in a ceremonial monarchy you rather *want* it to seem like the monarch is not making active decisions but only doing what they 'must' do.
    To some extent, yes - but not when the decisions are of the self-interested variety.

    However, I did not intend my post to interpreted negatively: I think she did the job she was asked to do better than most. But that job wasn't "politician".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    Vg thread from legal expert. Hope Labour are talking to discrimination law experts: their current position on conflict between gender identity & sex could significantly erode women’s rights with big unintended consequences not just for single-sex spaces but also equal pay claims.…..

    (And don’t get me started on the SNP whose proposed reforms that look very likely to go through in Scotland are a hot mess that have simply set aside women’s well-founded concerns because they’re politically inconvenient to Nicola Sturgeon)


    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1583711442066235393
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 555

    IanB2 said:

    Wallace is "leaning towards" Johnson (having been his seconder last time!) out of loyalty and hoping to defend his budget against Hunt. He's a pragmatist, and may well be leaning the other way quite soon...

    I too noticed the careful choice of words - I suspect “reassurances were being sought” from Sunak. “Wallace backing Johnson” was over reading his remarks.
    ...and of the two possible winners, which is more likely to kick Wallace out of the cabinet for failing to support him, and which is more likely to let that be water under the bridge since he's the best person for the job? Surely that's got to be in Wallace's mind too...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Mrs C, and if there's an EU Truss? How do you get rid of them?

    If there's an EU law, how do you change that?

    That's the problem.

    You can change it relatively easily at a national level. At EU level, it's not the same.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    Jonathan said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Elizabeth II
    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
    Truss made more mistakes in 40days than HM made in 70 years!
    You have set a very low bar for comparison. Yes, I think EIIR would have been a better PM than Liz Truss.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Given the relative sizes, that could cause serious injury.
    Very funny ! I like Penny and love her look , I’m a Labour supporter but would vote for her hair . It’s very Miss Moneypenniyish !
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    Jonathan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Fingers crossed 🤞

    It did smell like the Boris campaign was trying to bounce him quickly onto the ticket. They were quite successful and dominated the early ‘campaign’ . It will be interesting to see if his arrival back from Carribean butlins gives him another shove. If not, that story might be over.
    Would be ironic if that early impetus dried up, purely because the idle one was on a Carribean beach instead of doing what he's paid to do.
    A couple of barnstorming, blustering word salads of boosterist bollocks on Friday could have swayed the hard of thinking in Westminster.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    For what purpose? To try to stop Boris getting 100 nominations? If some Mordaunt supporters went across to him, it might have the opposite effect. To impress the members?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    Perhaps the tories have just lost the idea/vision that they are the party of sensible government. They have become radicals, but cannot agree on what they are radical about after having 'got Brexit done'. If they carry on along this path then they will end up fracturing / splitting / becoming electorally irellevant. Perhaps that is just their fate.
    Yes, very few of the Tories want to conserve and slowly develop the status quo. Some want to become Singapore, others America, others to hark back to the 1950s, others to hark back to the world of Thatcher. For all their faux patriotism a lot of them don't seem to like current UK very much.
    The Conservative party has deserted conservativism for sure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Dura_Ace said:

    All of the tories' contemporary and well derved excruciations stem from Brexit. 2016 was when the party irreversibly succumbed to what the Italians fatalistically call politica di fantasia. And it has taken a while but it has duly delivered a typically Italian outcome of economic malaise, nightmarishly poor governance and political instability.

    If ever a political party deserved humilation followed by extinction it is the 2022 tories.

    The only person who can make the Tories extinct is Nigel Farage, there will always be a right in this country.

    The choice is the Tories or a Farage led populist party overtaking and then taking over and merging with the
    Tories Canada style (unless we get PR)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Chris said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    For what purpose? To try to stop Boris getting 100 nominations? If some Mordaunt supporters went across to him, it might have the opposite effect. To impress the members?
    I get your point . It’s better for her to stay in .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258

    Mrs C, and if there's an EU Truss? How do you get rid of them?

    Dan Hannan

    We used to be able to vote him out.

    Now we can't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    I have just dipped into the comments section on the order-order spreadsheet page.

    Good grief, the incoherency of those comments!

    Makes PB seem extremely erudite in comparison.

    It is extremely erudite in comparison to pretty much any under the line comments.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    In one of his monologues on GB News, Farage was suggesting Braverman could quit and join a new right wing party. This was on the assumption that Braverman is a cabinet minister and a heavy hitter in the tories. But Braverman is little more than a polemicist with no proven ministerial skills. She has achieved nothing other that internal disruption in the Conservative Party. Farage is a giant compared to her because he has actually done something in the real world, IE the Brexit referendum and making Brexit actually happen in 2019.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    Dura_Ace said:

    All of the tories' contemporary and well derved excruciations stem from Brexit. 2016 was when the party irreversibly succumbed to what the Italians fatalistically call politica di fantasia. And it has taken a while but it has duly delivered a typically Italian outcome of economic malaise, nightmarishly poor governance and political instability.

    If ever a political party deserved humilation followed by extinction it is the 2022 tories.

    I'd be curious to hear from those on here who voted Brexit to tell the rest of us what they hoped to get out of it and whether it's achieved their objectives.

    (Not those who don't like foreigners but those who claim a higher purpose).

  • eekeek Posts: 22,076
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    If Johnson gets to say, 90 nominations, and only Sunak makes the threshold, there's going to be some very disgruntled members.
    And a substantial internal opposition in Parliament.*

    *Of course. There'll be that anyways.
    But are they really going to be that disgruntled, if they can see that Sunak has twice as much support among MPs as Johnson?
    Yes because Sunak is the traitor who removed Boris.

    The reality, however, is is that you don’t need those members so the correct response is if you upset leave, if you create trouble you’re out.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Is there a reason Sunak is taking so long to decide to run or actually announce his decision to ?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682

    I have just dipped into the comments section on the order-order spreadsheet page.

    Good grief, the incoherency of those comments!

    Makes PB seem extremely erudite in comparison.

    It is extremely erudite in comparison to pretty much any under the line comments.
    'It' being PB or order-order?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    Boris big hitter Dom Raab suggests Tories would go backwards if he came back. I think it's over. They've woken up from their dream world and realised the next election is about finishing as a respectable opposition party vs extinction.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    darkage said:

    In one of his monologues on GB News, Farage was suggesting Braverman could quit and join a new right wing party.

    And raise the average IQ of both parties….
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly = I've spoken to two people with different views....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    I have just dipped into the comments section on the order-order spreadsheet page.

    Good grief, the incoherency of those comments!

    Makes PB seem extremely erudite in comparison.

    It is extremely erudite in comparison to pretty much any under the line comments.
    'It' being PB or order-order?
    Guess!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    MaxPB said:

    Boris big hitter Dom Raab suggests Tories would go backwards if he came back. I think it's over. They've woken up from their dream world and realised the next election is about finishing as a respectable opposition party vs extinction.

    I agree the Tories would go backwards if Raab came back :smile:

    More seriously, remember he wasn't too happy with Johnson for being demoted as FS merely for being totally incompetent. I'm not altogether surprised he's taking the opportunity to stick the knife in know and I don't think it's in itself a sign Johnson won't get 100.

    The most telling sign is that those people who are claiming they'll get him to the numbers feel unable to go public.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    MaxPB said:

    I get a sense that Tory MPs are waking up to the disaster that a Boris II premiership would be for them, all out of a job in two years. Yesterday's momentum seems to have evaporated this morning now that they have had a chance to speak to their partners and sleep on it.

    I think Boris may only get 70-80 nominations in the end and that extra push by his loyalists for non loyalists to lend him votes to "let the members decide" will go unheard. It may even be that Boris sees this coming and will cut a deal with Rishi to come back as foreign secretary rather than stand and lose. He can then be the point man on Ukraine, which he desperately wants and having Boris there helps Rishi to dispel any ambiguity around his commitment to Ukraine as well.

    I wonder if a special Minister for the War in Ukraine position might be created, attending cabinet. No actual responsibility for e.g. procurement, operations etc, no access to confidential information (which I think precludes him from returning as ForSec), but a massive dose of global boosterism - especially to help with the US post midterms.
  • nico679 said:

    Chris said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    For what purpose? To try to stop Boris getting 100 nominations? If some Mordaunt supporters went across to him, it might have the opposite effect. To impress the members?
    I get your point . It’s better for her to stay in .
    Exactly. It isn't that Sunak needs votes, it's just that he needs to stop Johnson from getting them. He needs her to stay in.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    Did it really take this long to figure that out?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682

    I have just dipped into the comments section on the order-order spreadsheet page.

    Good grief, the incoherency of those comments!

    Makes PB seem extremely erudite in comparison.

    It is extremely erudite in comparison to pretty much any under the line comments.
    'It' being PB or order-order?
    Guess!
    I have no idea what point you are trying to make now.

    (But tbh I am no longer interested.)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly = I've spoken to two people with different views....
    One person who is undecided...
  • RattersRatters Posts: 485
    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Would that help?

    Unless 100% of her supporters transfer to Sunak, a withdrawal would potentially give a couple more nominations to Boris that she would have kept to herself.

    She is potentially more useful as a third candidate for those disillusioned by Sunak but can't bring themselves to vote for Boris.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly = I've spoken to two people with different views....
    One ex-Tory now voting Labour, one ex-Tory now voting LibDem? :D:D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Given the relative sizes, that could cause serious injury.
    Very funny ! I like Penny and love her look , I’m a Labour supporter but would vote for her hair . It’s very Miss Moneypenniyish !
    I think her hair has its own political ambitions!

    (That said, my wife thinks she's beautiful. Let's face it, beauty is a rare bonus in our current crop of politicians...)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Are Sunak and Johnson waiting for each to go first and announce .

    Surely they have to make a decision soon as in today .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    edited October 2022
    Following yesterday’s new NHS England guidelines on treating young people presenting with gender dysphoria (which may also be other things including ADHD, autism, depression, and anxiety)

    This seems like a very important reset of healthcare for children with gender incongruence in light of the appalling standards of care at the Tavistock & the ideological capture of children’s healthcare by adult campaigners for gender identity ideology. A big relief.….

    As many pointing out, this leaves *major* questions for Scotland, where @NHSScotland & many MSPs have not engaged with Cass Review. Would be shocking if Scottish children continue to be failed while
    @NHSEngland sorts itself out because to do otherwise is politically inconvenient…..

    This does rather raise questions about @UKLabour’s support for a gender identity conversion therapy ban which many believe risks actually making this approach outlined by the NHS unlawful. These concerns are shared by @EHRC who urged a pause on this aspect of the legislation


    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1583527676945760256?s=20

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    nico679 said:

    Chris said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    For what purpose? To try to stop Boris getting 100 nominations? If some Mordaunt supporters went across to him, it might have the opposite effect. To impress the members?
    I get your point . It’s better for her to stay in .
    Exactly. It isn't that Sunak needs votes, it's just that he needs to stop Johnson from getting them. He needs her to stay in.
    I still think if he has enough, Rishi should lend Penny enough votes to push Boris into third.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    nico679 said:

    Is there a reason Sunak is taking so long to decide to run or actually announce his decision to ?

    He doesn't want to seem "too keen". That was a criticism of him last time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    39m
    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly = I've spoken to two people with different views....
    One ex-Tory now voting Labour, one ex-Tory now voting LibDem? :D:D
    Sounds about right - and neither with a vote for the next PM!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    Yes. I'd prefer Sunak to win this one (least worst option) but I struggle to see how he will unite the party. Mordaunt, the same; Johnson much more so.

    To paraphrase Private Frazer "They're all doomed!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    Is there a reason Sunak is taking so long to decide to run or actually announce his decision to ?

    He doesn't want to seem "too keen". That was a criticism of him last time.
    He doesn't need to announce, he is already the only candidate over the 100 Tory MPs nomination threshold required
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,050

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Given the relative sizes, that could cause serious injury.
    Very funny ! I like Penny and love her look , I’m a Labour supporter but would vote for her hair . It’s very Miss Moneypenniyish !
    I think her hair has its own political ambitions!

    (That said, my wife thinks she's beautiful. Let's face it, beauty is a rare bonus in our current crop of politicians...)
    I think she is and her gay brother is also blessed with good looks and very hunky !

    Her hair though is stunning and should get its own parliamentary seat !
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,198
    nico679 said:

    Are Sunak and Johnson waiting for each to go first and announce .

    Surely they have to make a decision soon as in today .

    I don’t think Sunak is in any rush. We all know he’s running, might as well announce it Sunday/Monday, ideally last so as to try and shift momentum/feeling of inevitability to him.

    Johnson won’t announce hes running until he’s convinced he’ll get the 100 IMO.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All of the tories' contemporary and well derved excruciations stem from Brexit. 2016 was when the party irreversibly succumbed to what the Italians fatalistically call politica di fantasia. And it has taken a while but it has duly delivered a typically Italian outcome of economic malaise, nightmarishly poor governance and political instability.

    If ever a political party deserved humilation followed by extinction it is the 2022 tories.

    The only person who can make the Tories extinct is Nigel Farage, there will always be a right in this country.

    The choice is the Tories or a Farage led populist party overtaking and then taking over and merging with the
    Tories Canada style (unless we get PR)
    IT would be interesting if the Tories foist PR on the country in a desperate attempt to avoid annihilation because it looks like FPTP will effectively wipe them out. And we know that the first loyalty of the Tories is to themselves.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403

    darkage said:

    In one of his monologues on GB News, Farage was suggesting Braverman could quit and join a new right wing party.

    And raise the average IQ of both parties….
    This is absolutely one of my favourite insults. Anyone know who coined it, originally?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    nico679 said:

    Are Sunak and Johnson waiting for each to go first and announce .

    Surely they have to make a decision soon as in today .

    If BoZo gets less than 100 named supporters before Monday, somebody should officially nominate him so he loses. Officially...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,820
    felix said:

    If the integrity of an online vote cannot be guaranteed it has to be either abandoned or replaced with mail voting.

    God please no, Morris! We need a result next week.

    Let them launch a civil action in the courts if they want to.
    Quite - or give them the option to vote by pigeon instead!
    Even if it went to the courts I couldn't see it succeeding. The members have been given a vote and those without an email address have been given the opportunity to provide one in time to vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    Is there a reason Sunak is taking so long to decide to run or actually announce his decision to ?

    He doesn't want to seem "too keen". That was a criticism of him last time.
    I hope he has spent the Truss Premiership getting some gravitas training. Enough of the "Tigger after eating a hundredweight of sweeties" routine.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,790

    Vg thread from legal expert. Hope Labour are talking to discrimination law experts: their current position on conflict between gender identity & sex could significantly erode women’s rights with big unintended consequences not just for single-sex spaces but also equal pay claims.…..

    (And don’t get me started on the SNP whose proposed reforms that look very likely to go through in Scotland are a hot mess that have simply set aside women’s well-founded concerns because they’re politically inconvenient to Nicola Sturgeon)


    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1583711442066235393

    You are foghorn voiced obsessive bore on this weird intersection of Scottish Nationalism and gender identity.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640

    nico679 said:

    Chris said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    For what purpose? To try to stop Boris getting 100 nominations? If some Mordaunt supporters went across to him, it might have the opposite effect. To impress the members?
    I get your point . It’s better for her to stay in .
    Exactly. It isn't that Sunak needs votes, it's just that he needs to stop Johnson from getting them. He needs her to stay in.
    I still think if he has enough, Rishi should lend Penny enough votes to push Boris into third.
    How do you do that without risking looking like you have less support or even worse not making the threshold .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773
    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    There is an interesting development, very like USA and Italy. The Tories have for ever been a huge coalition from backwoodsmen and landed interest reactionaries to sharp suited chancers and red braces; liberal one nationers to Gradgrinds; social liberals and 10 Commandments people.

    Borisism has introduced a new element. The one thing which tended to unite Tories was a general sense of what constituted decency and character in individuals. This may have been a total front (probably was) but the pro Boris faction is basically saying "He is a rogue, cheat, liar and betrayer of friends but he is my choice for leader and I prefer it that way."

    This particular moment looks like a test of this new coalition element. The Republicans face the same (but worse) challenge.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    Ratters said:

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Would that help?

    Unless 100% of her supporters transfer to Sunak, a withdrawal would potentially give a couple more nominations to Boris that she would have kept to herself.

    She is potentially more useful as a third candidate for those disillusioned by Sunak but can't bring themselves to vote for Boris.
    No. You want Penny to make the final two, but significantly trailing Sunak, then deciding “for the good of the country” (and her future career prospects) to step aside as Sunak clearly has the greatest support among MPs (so the members don’t get a say).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    Is it a good idea to give 180,000 of the most leaden footed people in the country the job of choosing our next Prime Minister? Self selected as well. It's well beyond bonkers
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All of the tories' contemporary and well derved excruciations stem from Brexit. 2016 was when the party irreversibly succumbed to what the Italians fatalistically call politica di fantasia. And it has taken a while but it has duly delivered a typically Italian outcome of economic malaise, nightmarishly poor governance and political instability.

    If ever a political party deserved humilation followed by extinction it is the 2022 tories.

    The only person who can make the Tories extinct is Nigel Farage, there will always be a right in this country.

    The choice is the Tories or a Farage led populist party overtaking and then taking over and merging with the
    Tories Canada style (unless we get PR)
    IT would be interesting if the Tories foist PR on the country in a desperate attempt to avoid annihilation because it looks like FPTP will effectively wipe them out. And we know that the first loyalty of the Tories is to themselves.
    Not great though to go into PR then Labour STILL get an absolute majority and the Tories an inconsequential 13% of the seats.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
    Nah, that was polling UK electorate. The member polling shows Boris in pole position, but not by as much as anticipated. I don't think he'd walk it and the question over the ~20k members who are ineligible still looms for Boris. I'd wager that the break for him 90:10 having spoken to loads of them for renewals in the past.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,446
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    Did it really take this long to figure that out?
    Definitely screwed either way. This may make some MPs and members choose Johnson as the 'Hail Mary' pass. I think they would be wrong to do so because the risk of extinction is greater under him, but you can kind of understand them doing it.

    Given a fair wind, I thought the Tories could hope for 200/250 at the next GE under Sunak but it looks unlikely now. The political storms in the Party still rage and there won't be calm for some while yet. Maybe 150 is the best they can hope for.

    Under Boris I'd put the figure about the same but with a much greater risk of complete wipe-out. There is also a real risk that the GE would come soon, so no time to sort the mess out.

    I see Johnson is now 2/1 with Betfair. Looks about right but somehow I have this feeling that behind the scenes there will be moves made to ensure he doesn't make it. Maybe the Party Elders can buy him off. He likes money. Maybe he's just come back to ask them how much they'll give him to return to the beach.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    mwadams said:

    darkage said:

    In one of his monologues on GB News, Farage was suggesting Braverman could quit and join a new right wing party.

    And raise the average IQ of both parties….
    This is absolutely one of my favourite insults. Anyone know who coined it, originally?
    It's a variant of a Yes Prime Minister joke:

    Hacker was more interested in votes than in principles, running for cover at the first whiff of unpopularity. He raised the average age of the cabinet but lowered the average IQ.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    nico679 said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    Could Penny withdraw before Monday and throw her weight behind Sunak ?
    Given the relative sizes, that could cause serious injury.
    Sunak, R - 106 - retired hurt.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    Old ground Mr Dancer, gone over many times.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,198

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
    I’m afraid I don’t, but the thought of Boris forcing it to a members vote and then losing it is cheering me to no end. I would roar with laughter if that happened.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258

    Definitely screwed either way. This may make some MPs and members choose Johnson as the 'Hail Mary' pass. I think they would be wrong to do so because the risk of extinction is greater under him, but you can kind of understand them doing it.

    It's another iteration of cargo cult politics.

    they picked Truss because they thought cosplay Thatcher was the same as Thatcher.

    They want BoZo because at one time in completely different circumstances he won votes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649

    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    Did it really take this long to figure that out?
    Definitely screwed either way. This may make some MPs and members choose Johnson as the 'Hail Mary' pass. I think they would be wrong to do so because the risk of extinction is greater under him, but you can kind of understand them doing it.

    Given a fair wind, I thought the Tories could hope for 200/250 at the next GE under Sunak but it looks unlikely now. The political storms in the Party still rage and there won't be calm for some while yet. Maybe 150 is the best they can hope for.

    Under Boris I'd put the figure about the same but with a much greater risk of complete wipe-out. There is also a real risk that the GE would come soon, so no time to sort the mess out.

    I see Johnson is now 2/1 with Betfair. Looks about right but somehow I have this feeling that behind the scenes there will be moves made to ensure he doesn't make it. Maybe the Party Elders can buy him off. He likes money. Maybe he's just come back to ask them ho much they'll give him to return to the beach.
    I actually think if Rishi ejects the 30 most rebellious fools on day 1, unites the rest of the party and leads a stable government for 2 years they'll be ok, what they don't need is the same 60-70 Boris supporters going at it every time something happens. Under Boris it becomes an extinction level event.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,263

    James_M said:

    Morning all.

    I think this is my first post since the Leeds Leadership hustings. At that time I said the Conservative Party needed to be pragmatic, empathetic and forward looking. I was sceptical it was in evidence with Liz Truss and as such I vote for Rishi Sunak. Unsurprisingly I think he is the most appropriate and strongest choice for the party now.

    In terms of the EU, I campaigned and voted Leave in the referendum. I had long hoped sufficient reform from within the EU towards a more flexible model of concentric circles of membership would emerge quicker than it was and when Cameron failed to get anything meaningful in his negotiation I made the decision that reforming our relationship from outside offered an alternate route, even if it would be structurally more radical.

    Overall I still think leaving will prove to be the pathway to that more mature, mutually beneficial relationship with the EU arrives. Nevertheless I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge I had not considered the awful way all sides - UK and EU actors - behaved post-referendum in failing to work through the next steps more cautiously, compromise and not go zero sum. Here the Conservative Party did not have its finest hour to say the least and today there is still too much ideological unwillingness to see nuance and compromise.

    For me the EU (at the bureaucratic level at least) sees itself as a state being built. This means that there is not always a willingness to see that some members won't want ever closer union. Perhaps this is no surprise: bureaucracies often like to justify their roles through more and more activity and as with membership of any state, there isn't really a half in/ half out position - you are either part of the state or you are not. On the flip side, if the hard Brexiteers do not recognise that their zero sum approach will risk alienating those who want good UK-EU relations, then they will find the country will be more likely to return to the EU (potentially without all the opt-outs) out of frustration and exhaustion. Not compromising and thinking you are always right is tiring. If the public feel the status quo is too conflictual, the hard Brexiteers should not be surprised the public look elsewhere and that alternative offering may well be rejoin, as the bespoke relationship hasn't been sold and explained well enough.

    And that bespoke relationship? Ultimately a relationship, more associate in status, economically-based, but without the free movement of people as currently formed is one that could, over many years be forged. It would, I think make a sufficient number of actors on all sides sufficiently content and allow us all to focus on big structural things such as inter-generational fairness, the future of work, climate change.

    It's a measured and serious post and I suspect echos the views of many moderate Tory Leavers.

    But... I think you are still looking for EU 'membership benefits' without paying the fees or applying the rules. That's not the way it works.
    I think those of us who would have signed up to an associate membership if Cameron had sought and achieved it would expect there to be a fee. We'd then just focus on whether it was worth it...
  • Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Roy Jenkins. Postwar anyway

    And good morning one and all!

    John Smith? Remember him?
    Ken Clarke nust be a good shout.
  • novanova Posts: 472

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
    As far as I can see, the only polling Opinium did was of the public. The results were the same, as described, so I'd assume that's the one they're referring to.

    The live blog mentions it as happening yesterday too, so it would be all over the place now if true.

    Looks like a mistake from The Guardian.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,820
    Aren't you supposed to go on holiday when Parliament is not sitting? Shows his real colours when he thought he didn't need to give a damn.

    Johnson will pretend to be contrite till the moment he's reelected then it will be right back to square one, grift, lies, laziness and incompetence. Anyone who falls for it is an idiot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.

    They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.

    Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.

    Yeah, my secretary would like to see him back. She has a soft spot for dodgy blokes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited October 2022

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
    Here

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1583450172608376832?s=20&t=FLsaewhTfEiqLrxdNyOEyw

    Though the Peston polling showed no difference between Sunak and Johnson v Starmer, both trailed Starmer by 13% with Mordaunt trailing by 21%. Badenoch trailed by 30% and Braverman by 33%


    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=FLsaewhTfEiqLrxdNyOEyw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.

    They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.

    Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.

    Yeah, my secretary would like to see him back. She has a soft spot for dodgy blokes.
    TMI Dr, TMI.... :hushed:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    In Germany I am the sentimental Anglophile who insists on going on about the importance of the UK.
    In Britain I am the rude German cow who can’t stop criticizing.
    Well.
    Doing my best, sorry if that’s annoying.


    https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1583528101455138817?s=20
  • A golden fabrication

    As the nation prepares for what could be the return of Boris Johnson to power next week, I bring disappointing news about the famous £840-a-roll gold wallpaper said to line the walls of the Downing Street flat: it does not exist.

    Soon to be ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss let slip at a recent drinks that there was no fabled gold wallpaper, allegedly funded by a donor on the instructions of Johnson’s wife Carrie.

    One visitor to the flat is even more damning, telling me: “I think at one point there was some wallpaper in the kitchen but it wasn’t gold and it fell down.” Which says it all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/michael-gove-cassandra-times/ (£££)
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BIG PICTURE: a growing school of thought in the party that whatever happens over the next week, the Tories are irretrievably screwed and need to split or a period in opposition to reset https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/johnson-sunak-could-face-impossible-task-in-uniting-conservative-party

    Did it really take this long to figure that out?
    Definitely screwed either way. This may make some MPs and members choose Johnson as the 'Hail Mary' pass. I think they would be wrong to do so because the risk of extinction is greater under him, but you can kind of understand them doing it.

    Given a fair wind, I thought the Tories could hope for 200/250 at the next GE under Sunak but it looks unlikely now. The political storms in the Party still rage and there won't be calm for some while yet. Maybe 150 is the best they can hope for.

    Under Boris I'd put the figure about the same but with a much greater risk of complete wipe-out. There is also a real risk that the GE would come soon, so no time to sort the mess out.

    I see Johnson is now 2/1 with Betfair. Looks about right but somehow I have this feeling that behind the scenes there will be moves made to ensure he doesn't make it. Maybe the Party Elders can buy him off. He likes money. Maybe he's just come back to ask them ho much they'll give him to return to the beach.
    I actually think if Rishi ejects the 30 most rebellious fools on day 1, unites the rest of the party and leads a stable government for 2 years they'll be ok, what they don't need is the same 60-70 Boris supporters going at it every time something happens. Under Boris it becomes an extinction level event.
    They'd be close to losing their majority, wouldn't they, Max?

    An early GE would be an extinction event, or close to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All of the tories' contemporary and well derved excruciations stem from Brexit. 2016 was when the party irreversibly succumbed to what the Italians fatalistically call politica di fantasia. And it has taken a while but it has duly delivered a typically Italian outcome of economic malaise, nightmarishly poor governance and political instability.

    If ever a political party deserved humilation followed by extinction it is the 2022 tories.

    The only person who can make the Tories extinct is Nigel Farage, there will always be a right in this country.

    The choice is the Tories or a Farage led populist party overtaking and then taking over and merging with the
    Tories Canada style (unless we get PR)
    IT would be interesting if the Tories foist PR on the country in a desperate attempt to avoid annihilation because it looks like FPTP will effectively wipe them out. And we know that the first loyalty of the Tories is to themselves.
    Not great though to go into PR then Labour STILL get an absolute majority and the Tories an inconsequential 13% of the seats.....
    Rather than the 1% of seats they would get on current polls with FPTP.

    However Sunak or Johnson likely gets the Tories back up to 30%
  • novanova Posts: 472
    HYUFD said:

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    4m
    Spoke to one depressed Tory MP yesterday who said Boris Johnson will "walk it" if he gets through a vote by the members.

    They said: "I’ve spoken to Rishi’s campaign and begged them to reach out to Penny - the only chance we’ve got to stop Boris is that coalition."

    The Guardian blog says "Polling by Opinium suggests that Sunak will beat Mordaunt and Johnson in a leadership contest, and that Mordaunt will also beat Johnson.". Is there a link to this apparently very important finding?
    Here

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1583450172608376832?s=20&t=FLsaewhTfEiqLrxdNyOEyw

    Though the Peston polling showed no difference between Sunak and Johnson v Starmer, both trailed Starmer by 13% with Mordaunt trailing by 21%. Badenoch trailed by 30% and Braverman by 33%


    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=FLsaewhTfEiqLrxdNyOEyw
    Both public votes, rather than membership.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Roger said:

    Is it a good idea to give 180,000 of the most leaden footed people in the country the job of choosing our next Prime Minister? Self selected as well. It's well beyond bonkers

    No


    The fun you can have when you have a platform and know you are utterly unsackable.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,656
    OllyT said:

    Aren't you supposed to go on holiday when Parliament is not sitting? Shows his real colours when he thought he didn't need to give a damn.

    Johnson will pretend to be contrite till the moment he's reelected then it will be right back to square one, grift, lies, laziness and incompetence. Anyone who falls for it is an idiot.
    Honestly, the double standards when it comes to this man. I think we can all agree that anyone who’s just been PM is owed a holiday. Accepting that point doesn’t mean you also have to think he’s god’s gift or the right replacement for Truss.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    edited October 2022

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Roy Jenkins. Postwar anyway

    And good morning one and all!

    John Smith? Remember him?
    Ken Clarke nust be a good shout.
    Yes indeed. I had a lot of time for Ken Clarke back in the days when the Tories were a serious party rather than a wine-drinking party.
This discussion has been closed.