In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
Modi's views on India's strategic alignment are formed by a set of slightly more complex set of considerations than the ethnic heritage of a dimunitive menswear influencer/British PM who evidences very little personal gravitas.
India needs Russia as a strategic counterweight to the Pakistan - China Alliance. The US could prise them away but it doesn't seem to be a priority.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
I agree flexibility, or agility, is a Brexit upside. The EU takes forever to make decisions.
Personally I think Brexit is a mistake for the UK given how it sees its place in the world, but in life in most cases you learn to live with your mistakes. I agree with you that we need to move on. But we do need to set realistic expectations. We will have to compromise and it's not going to be great.
I watched an interesting tech talk recently from someone who has moved around quite a bit in the industry.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 39m Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.
What do you reckon that figure is in the general adult population? 0.3%?
It’s 13% “have chosen not to give their email addresses to the Conservative party”
May be for some they joined before they had email; may be others want to reduce the amount of spam they get; etc
Yep, there's several factors (bear in mind that 13% figure probably comes from a very basic comparison of total number of memberships to total number of email addresses held:
1) some people are legacy members who joined in the 70s/80s/90s and have never been asked for an email address
2) some people have previously given an email address, but the stable geniuses at CCHQ send out a lot of spam and have set up their opt-out button to not just remove people from the mailing list but delete their email from CCHQ's database entirely (this caused a lot of "fun" conversations with ex-members who never got an email requesting they renew their membership because they'd opted out of the weekly begging missives and thus had lapsed memberships/couldn't vote in the leadership election).
3) the CCHQ database is a total mess of duplicate memberships, improperly logged memberships, etc, so that 13% will include people with two or three different constituency memberships (which all count towards the membership total) but only one email address
4) the average age of a Tory member is now 72, and a good chunk are in their 80s and 90s, so demographically you'd expect more people in that age bracket not to have email
A lot of talk about Starmer ditching all his pledges from the leadership election this morning and last night, but has he really? It's current Labour policy to bring the railways back into public ownership and set up a publicly owned energy company. Labour endlessly bang on about creating green jobs, Gordon Brown is doing a review of the constitution, and there will undoubtedly have to be tax rises on the rich given the current economic situation we are now in. And given the well-timed fracking vote pretty much finished Truss off, Starmer can very much say that he's provided "effective opposition to the Tories." The main pledge Starmer is clearly gone against is promising to retain free movement, but even that might eventually be fulfilled if we did rejoin the EEA under his watch.
I am intrigued why Rishi hasn't gone public yet? What's the gameplan here.
Look like you're being asked to lead rather than explicitly wanting to lead, perhaps.
I also wonder if there's an element of him thinking "if I'm essentially favourite again and get overlooked again, what do I do after that?".
Both sound plausible.
I wonder if they're waiting to see what happens with Boris, and also any members polling. If polling comes out with numbers anything like the Truss/Sunak ballot, then he may think it would be better to wait.
Anyway, on the betting and JOHNSON. To make it he has to do all of these things. Get the 100. Finish 2nd. Resist the pressure (as a bad 2nd) to give way, insist on a members vote. Win the members vote. How this maps to a price as low as 3, which is what he is, I do not know. He should be at least double that for me. Triple even. I think punters are being unduly hooked by the hype and drama surrounding him. 3 is plain silly and you'll rarely see a better lay. I'm doing more.
Question - why hasn't either Sunak or Johnson formally declared yet? Is there a reason to hold off?
Both will get some publicity and a little boost when they do. Perhaps it's a contest for the headline in the Sunday papers? Johnson may be holding back as he doesn't know whether he's got the support (and declaring from a Caribbean beach would hardly look good!). I don't know Sunak's plan but bet it's all been gameplayed and planned out.
Anyway, on the betting and JOHNSON. To make it he has to do all of these things. Get the 100. Finish 2nd. Resist the pressure (as a bad 2nd) to give way, insist on a members vote. Win the members vote. How this maps to a price as low as 3, which is what he is, I do not know. He should be at least double that for me. Triple even. I think punters are being unduly hooked by the hype and drama surrounding him. 3 is plain silly and you'll rarely see a better lay. I'm doing more.
Harry Taylor @HarryTaylr Sky News reporter Mark Stone, who is on the flight with Boris Johnson back from the Dominican Republic to Gatwick, said that Johnson was booed by passengers as he boarded.
This is classic twitter nonsense...headline tweet says something that people will take as whole plane booed him. Actual quote from Mark Stone, a couple of people did, most were bemused to see him there.
Its also done in the disingenuous sly way that they write the first part (in attempt to get shared, with link to the actual quote 2 tweets down, that nobody will read).
Interesting that bankers and police come off a lot better than vicars ... nay, actually startling.
Depends on how people are interpretating the question. Trust on what? On there being a God?
Ah, was thinking more of molesting the respondent's bank account/little child. But you've got a good point.
There seems to be some heroic reinterpretation of the question into the conclusion.
Question about "trust in the medical system" becomes an interpretation about "The NHS", for example, ditto High Street Banks are interpreted as 'Bankers', and Religious Institutions as 'Vicars'.
I agree flexibility, or agility, is a Brexit upside. The EU takes forever to make decisions.
Personally I think Brexit is a mistake for the UK given how it sees its place in the world, but in life in most cases you learn to live with your mistakes. I agree with you that we need to move on. But we do need to set realistic expectations. We will have to compromise and it's not going to be great.
I watched an interesting tech talk recently from someone who has moved around quite a bit in the industry.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
I think this is right. Flexibility is a genuine Brexit upside to set against the bigger and more numerous downsides, but it is constrained because systems and market power tend to win out. If we take the faster vaccine rollout as a Brexit success, it's noticeable there aren't many other examples of gaining advantage through agility.
Harry Taylor @HarryTaylr Sky News reporter Mark Stone, who is on the flight with Boris Johnson back from the Dominican Republic to Gatwick, said that Johnson was booed by passengers as he boarded.
This is classic twitter nonsense...headline tweet says something that people will take as whole plane booed him. Actual quote from Mark Stone, a couple of people did, most were bemused to see him there.
Its also done in the disingenuous sly way that they write the first part (in attempt to get shared, with link to the actual quote 2 tweets down, that nobody will read).
To be honest I didn't read "booed by passengers" as meaning booed by all the passengers. Personally, much as I dislike Johnson I wouldn't boo him if he was on my plane with his family coming back from holiday, and I would imagine most people would feel the same. People should have better manners.
A lot of talk about Starmer ditching all his pledges from the leadership election this morning and last night, but has he really? It's current Labour policy to bring the railways back into public ownership and set up a publicly owned energy company. Labour endlessly bang on about creating green jobs, Gordon Brown is doing a review of the constitution, and there will undoubtedly have to be tax rises on the rich given the current economic situation we are now in. And given the well-timed fracking vote pretty much finished Truss off, Starmer can very much say that he's provided "effective opposition to the Tories." The main pledge Starmer is clearly gone against is promising to retain free movement, but even that might eventually be fulfilled if we did rejoin the EEA under his watch.
Sure, if you are looking for Trussonomics with a Patel/Braverman style Home Office you won't find it under Labour. Not sure why you think you might?
Interesting that bankers and police come off a lot better than vicars ... nay, actually startling.
Depends on how people are interpretating the question. Trust on what? On there being a God?
Ah, was thinking more of molesting the respondent's bank account/little child. But you've got a good point.
There seems to be some heroic reinterpretation of the question into the conclusion.
Question about "trust in the medical system" becomes an interpretation about "The NHS", for example, ditto High Street Banks are interpreted as 'Bankers', and Religious Institutions as 'Vicars'.
But those are the elements that the public will mostly see. Especially the NHS.
If you asked the average punter for a religious institution they'd say the C of E or a RC orphanage. Wouldn't think of a madrasa or a Jain temple.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Agree on what's coming at the GE - something good - but there's 2 ways I'm not 100% relaxed about the thought of him coming back. First off, just on the raw chemical level, I acutely dislike seeing and hearing him, which would start happening again if he's the PM. And second, having assessed the chances of him winning this as miniscule, I've laid the arse off him!
Harry Taylor @HarryTaylr Sky News reporter Mark Stone, who is on the flight with Boris Johnson back from the Dominican Republic to Gatwick, said that Johnson was booed by passengers as he boarded.
This is classic twitter nonsense...headline tweet says something that people will take as whole plane booed him. Actual quote from Mark Stone, a couple of people did, most were bemused to see him there.
Its also done in the disingenuous sly way that they write the first part (in attempt to get shared, with link to the actual quote 2 tweets down, that nobody will read).
To be honest I didn't read "booed by passengers" as meaning booed by all the passengers. Personally, much as I dislike Johnson I wouldn't boo him if he was on my plane with his family coming back from holiday, and I would imagine most people would feel the same. People should have better manners.
The attempt of the disingenuous tweeter is to give a particular impression, otherwise could have tweeted a couple of people....and i think it unremarkable. As you say most people are polite, but always get one or two idiots whoever it might be, thus it says nothing about real feelings positive or negative (albeit i think we all know Boris might think he has Churchillian popularity when he doesn't).
I agree flexibility, or agility, is a Brexit upside. The EU takes forever to make decisions.
Personally I think Brexit is a mistake for the UK given how it sees its place in the world, but in life in most cases you learn to live with your mistakes. I agree with you that we need to move on. But we do need to set realistic expectations. We will have to compromise and it's not going to be great.
I watched an interesting tech talk recently from someone who has moved around quite a bit in the industry.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
I think this is right. Flexibility is a genuine Brexit upside to set against the bigger and more numerous downsides, but it is constrained because systems and market power tend to win out. If we take the faster vaccine rollout as a Brexit success, it's noticeable there aren't many other examples of gaining advantage through agility.
Most of the countries that we praise for being agile, eg Singapore or Israel, are on their own not because it's an advantage but because they lack natural allies among their neighbours. They succeed despite being on their own, not because of it. A medium sized mature European social democracy should be in a club of other mature European social democracies.
I agree flexibility, or agility, is a Brexit upside. The EU takes forever to make decisions.
Personally I think Brexit is a mistake for the UK given how it sees its place in the world, but in life in most cases you learn to live with your mistakes. I agree with you that we need to move on. But we do need to set realistic expectations. We will have to compromise and it's not going to be great.
I watched an interesting tech talk recently from someone who has moved around quite a bit in the industry.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
I think this is right. Flexibility is a genuine Brexit upside to set against the bigger and more numerous downsides, but it is constrained because systems and market power tend to win out. If we take the faster vaccine rollout as a Brexit success, it's noticeable there aren't many other examples of gaining advantage through agility.
And even the vaccine rollout gap ended up way smaller than some excited types thought it would be in Spring 2021.
There's a reason why container ships and cruise liners are more significant in the world than pirates in speedboats, however nimble the latter are.
Anyway, on the betting and JOHNSON. To make it he has to do all of these things. Get the 100. Finish 2nd. Resist the pressure (as a bad 2nd) to give way, insist on a members vote. Win the members vote. How this maps to a price as low as 3, which is what he is, I do not know. He should be at least double that for me. Triple even. I think punters are being unduly hooked by the hype and drama surrounding him. 3 is plain silly and you'll rarely see a better lay. I'm doing more.
As I said last night, pile on Sunak.
That's a good bet too, I think, but I'm sticking with just laying Johnson.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Agree on what's coming at the GE - something good - but there's 2 ways I'm not 100% relaxed about the thought of him coming back. First off, just on the raw chemical level, I acutely dislike seeing and hearing him, which would start happening again if he's the PM. And second, having assessed the chances of him winning this as miniscule, I've laid the arse off him!
Yes you definitely have skin in the game! I can't say I share your faith in him not coming back. The banter heuristic suggests it should be nailed on.
In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
Anyway, on the betting and JOHNSON. To make it he has to do all of these things. Get the 100. Finish 2nd. Resist the pressure (as a bad 2nd) to give way, insist on a members vote. Win the members vote. How this maps to a price as low as 3, which is what he is, I do not know. He should be at least double that for me. Triple even. I think punters are being unduly hooked by the hype and drama surrounding him. 3 is plain silly and you'll rarely see a better lay. I'm doing more.
As I said last night, pile on Sunak.
Trying to think this through: Boris has a grudge against Sunak, no? If he's short and he's heading to drop out at (1) or (2), I think he can endorse any non-crazy person and get them over 100. If they're non-crazy, they can then present themselves as the unity candidate, and MPs will know they'd probably win if it went to the members' vote.
I don't know whether Mordaunt fits that or not. But it would be more of a kingmaker flex by Boris to back someone who hadn't previously been considered one of the candidates..
I agree flexibility, or agility, is a Brexit upside. The EU takes forever to make decisions.
Personally I think Brexit is a mistake for the UK given how it sees its place in the world, but in life in most cases you learn to live with your mistakes. I agree with you that we need to move on. But we do need to set realistic expectations. We will have to compromise and it's not going to be great.
I watched an interesting tech talk recently from someone who has moved around quite a bit in the industry.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
I think this is right. Flexibility is a genuine Brexit upside to set against the bigger and more numerous downsides, but it is constrained because systems and market power tend to win out. If we take the faster vaccine rollout as a Brexit success, it's noticeable there aren't many other examples of gaining advantage through agility.
And even the vaccine rollout gap ended up way smaller than some excited types thought it would be in Spring 2021.
The UK was about average on mortality so in the end, despite the Sturm und Drang, the 'agility' of the British vaccine program made no difference. And we could have done it inside the EU anyway.
In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
In my experience, still alive. Some of the most appalling attitudes I have witnessed have been caste related in India.
But as with cricket, there are occasions when it is India United. I suspect seeing an Indian of whatever caste atop the old colonial power will be a cause of much rejoicing.
In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
There's also the question of which country influences the other. MM seems remarkably optimistic that the original asymmetry of empire days will remain.
Interesting that bankers and police come off a lot better than vicars ... nay, actually startling.
Depends on how people are interpretating the question. Trust on what? On there being a God?
Ah, was thinking more of molesting the respondent's bank account/little child. But you've got a good point.
There seems to be some heroic reinterpretation of the question into the conclusion.
Question about "trust in the medical system" becomes an interpretation about "The NHS", for example, ditto High Street Banks are interpreted as 'Bankers', and Religious Institutions as 'Vicars'.
But those are the elements that the public will mostly see. Especially the NHS.
If you asked the average punter for a religious institution they'd say the C of E or a RC orphanage. Wouldn't think of a madrasa or a Jain temple.
I think pollsters should be rigorous. If they want to know about the NHS, ask about the NHS.
I'm heavily involved in the NHS. I am also involved with a Dentist, a GP (semi-detached from NHS), a Health Cash Plan, and several others.
I'm not at all sure if that persists about CofE anymore outside the London media, and journos pressing the Easi-Headline Key on their computers.
Sounds like wishful thinking on Team Boris's part.
All of 'Team Boris' is wishful thinking. It's based no the idea that a man sacked for being a pathological liar, incompetent fool and convicted criminal, and who has been the first two for over fifty years, will somehow have magically improved after three months on the beach.
It's just occurred to me that Rishi Sunak has a very strong card to play in a General Election: "I was right to warn about Liz Truss's economic policies, and I'm right to warn about Labour's."
Oddly enough - I was just thinking "I hope he doesn't dwell too much on the 'I told you so' during the hustings on Monday". And I'm not sure going into a general election down the road and reminding everyone of the sh*t-show that had gone on is a terribly good play either.
Anyway, on the betting and JOHNSON. To make it he has to do all of these things. Get the 100. Finish 2nd. Resist the pressure (as a bad 2nd) to give way, insist on a members vote. Win the members vote. How this maps to a price as low as 3, which is what he is, I do not know. He should be at least double that for me. Triple even. I think punters are being unduly hooked by the hype and drama surrounding him. 3 is plain silly and you'll rarely see a better lay. I'm doing more.
As I said last night, pile on Sunak.
Trying to think this through: Boris has a grudge against Sunak, no? If he's short and he's heading to drop out at (1) or (2), I think he can endorse any non-crazy person and get them over 100. If they're non-crazy, they can then present themselves as the unity candidate, and MPs will know they'd probably win if it went to the members' vote.
I don't know whether Mordaunt fits that or not. But it would be more of a kingmaker flex by Boris to back someone who hadn't previously been considered one of the candidates..
I will keep ramping Michael Fabricant until it comes true and the Tories disappear up their own fundament.
So in effect, the Tories in parliament have repealed the membership vote. Essentially making membership a fan club for a few hundred posh people in London.
I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
Yes - and even in this political world of mounting absurdities just a little too bonkers to get over the line imo.
Boris of course won the last general election too, so even if he went to the membership and won it is a completely different scenario to when Truss won the membership having neither won most MPs support or a general election
What do you reckon that figure is in the general adult population? 0.3%?
It’s 13% “have chosen not to give their email addresses to the Conservative party”
May be for some they joined before they had email; may be others want to reduce the amount of spam they get; etc
Yep, there's several factors (bear in mind that 13% figure probably comes from a very basic comparison of total number of memberships to total number of email addresses held:
1) some people are legacy members who joined in the 70s/80s/90s and have never been asked for an email address
2) some people have previously given an email address, but the stable geniuses at CCHQ send out a lot of spam and have set up their opt-out button to not just remove people from the mailing list but delete their email from CCHQ's database entirely (this caused a lot of "fun" conversations with ex-members who never got an email requesting they renew their membership because they'd opted out of the weekly begging missives and thus had lapsed memberships/couldn't vote in the leadership election).
3) the CCHQ database is a total mess of duplicate memberships, improperly logged memberships, etc, so that 13% will include people with two or three different constituency memberships (which all count towards the membership total) but only one email address
4) the average age of a Tory member is now 72, and a good chunk are in their 80s and 90s, so demographically you'd expect more people in that age bracket not to have email
In the case of an elderly married couple, it is quite common that they will share an email address. I have family members who do this. If they are both Tory members, will only one get invited to vote?
If the integrity of an online vote cannot be guaranteed it has to be either abandoned or replaced with mail voting.
God please no, Morris! We need a result next week.
Let them launch a civil action in the courts if they want to.
Quite - or give them the option to vote by pigeon instead!
Even if it went to the courts I couldn't see it succeeding. The members have been given a vote and those without an email address have been given the opportunity to provide one in time to vote.
I would have thought some sort of legal challenge would be almost inevitable though. Which throws even more chaos and uncertainty on the selection of the next PM. It is a farce.
I see TSE blaming the 1922 committee and Brady for this but I was under the impression they have no control over the electoral process outside of the MPs voting. It is the constitution of the Tory Party that has to be changed to exclude the membership and make it MP only voting and that is not within his power. TO be honest given what he is faced with I am not sure he could do much different to what he has done.
There isn't going to be a members' vote.
I hope you are right. And as soon as this is out of the way someone needs to introduce a bill into Parliament preventing the PM being chosen by anyone but MPs.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Actually I think it's in Johnson's interest not to come back at this stage. Allow himself to be "thwarted" by self-serving MPs, hapless stooge Sunak to lose the next election and come back in triumph after the election on a betrayal narrative. That's the Berlusconi playbook Johnson tends to follow.
I believe this is the subtext to Telegraph type commentary by eg Charles Moore saying he should sit this one out "in the national interest". They actually mean Johnson's interest.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Agree on what's coming at the GE - something good - but there's 2 ways I'm not 100% relaxed about the thought of him coming back. First off, just on the raw chemical level, I acutely dislike seeing and hearing him, which would start happening again if he's the PM. And second, having assessed the chances of him winning this as miniscule, I've laid the arse off him!
Yes you definitely have skin in the game! I can't say I share your faith in him not coming back. The banter heuristic suggests it should be nailed on.
If the integrity of an online vote cannot be guaranteed it has to be either abandoned or replaced with mail voting.
God please no, Morris! We need a result next week.
Let them launch a civil action in the courts if they want to.
Quite - or give them the option to vote by pigeon instead!
Even if it went to the courts I couldn't see it succeeding. The members have been given a vote and those without an email address have been given the opportunity to provide one in time to vote.
I would have thought some sort of legal challenge would be almost inevitable though. Which throws even more chaos and uncertainty on the selection of the next PM. It is a farce.
I see TSE blaming the 1922 committee and Brady for this but I was under the impression they have no control over the electoral process outside of the MPs voting. It is the constitution of the Tory Party that has to be changed to exclude the membership and make it MP only voting and that is not within his power. TO be honest given what he is faced with I am not sure he could do much different to what he has done.
There isn't going to be a members' vote.
I hope you are right. And as soon as this is out of the way someone needs to introduce a bill into Parliament preventing the PM being chosen by anyone but MPs.
Or the voters at a general election (which should equate to the same thing)
I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
Rishi was the only major voice against lock downs in the cabinet. I've also been informed that he wanted to end the furlough months earlier but was blocked by the PM who wanted to keep it for all of 2021.
With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
Question - why hasn't either Sunak or Johnson formally declared yet? Is there a reason to hold off?
How does the nomination process work? Do Sunak et al collect up their nominations and then hand them in to Brady in a big bundle? Or do individual MPs directly tell Brady "I'm nominating X"? Obviously the former gives candidates a lot more info about how close they are to the 100 mark and scope for "lending" supporters out.
Oh I see you’re using that notable unbiased site Guido ! Lol
You think the BBC has their fingers on the pulse.
Let's see who ends up right.
If I were Boris I would pull out at best he will scrape just over the required 100
Quite a few won’t say on the record which is understandable. I really don’t know what Johnson will do but on past form he will do anything to be PM so splitting the party and being a poor second place won’t matter to him .
That looks a very weak bowling attack. Feels like trying to incorporate Stokes, Brook and Livingstone.
Please tell me they don't plan to bowl Liam Livingstone.
I think that's the plan. The eggheads believe that a spinner that bowls both types of spinners is extremely valuable in T20 as they can continually turn it away from the batter (regardless of right or left handed).
I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
Which is true. There's also the fact Rishi is probably the leader Labour would like to face, especially if The Saj is CoE - two rich ex-bankers running the country talking about the need for budget restraint. Look at Starmer's pivot on public ownership and Burnham's Evening Standard column calling for wealth taxes. Labour is clearly pivoting to the 'soak the rich' line and electing Sunak would mean the Tories fall into the trap.
Has Rishi been seen in public yet? I have visions of him reaching 270, crowds thronging to Richmond for a coronation but his house is all boarded up. Eventually an old crone emerges and says 'Mr Sunak? Hes not here.... taken his green card and gone to live in America they say. He left no forwarding address'
Oh I see you’re using that notable unbiased site Guido ! Lol
You think the BBC has their fingers on the pulse.
Let's see who ends up right.
If I were Boris I would pull out at best he will scrape just over the required 100
Quite a few won’t say on the record which is understandable. I really don’t know what Johnson will do but on past form he will do anything to be PM so splitting the party and being a poor second place won’t matter to him .
Yes, if Boris gets 100 MPs he will force a members ballot and if he loses that he will definitely start the "stolen vote" narrative because those old racists in the party don't have email addresses.
That looks a very weak bowling attack. Feels like trying to incorporate Stokes, Brook and Livingstone.
Please tell me they don't plan to bowl Liam Livingstone.
I think that's the plan. The eggheads believe that a spinner that bowls both types is extremely valuable in T20.
I'm sure one would be.
What about a batsman with an inflated idea of his own bowling ability?
My understanding is it is the higher ups that are pushing his usage.
My big concern is Curran and Woakes are lovely pace for getting tonked and never convinced they have good enough variety. And Wood if he sprays it his super pace will go for boundaries....then what do you do, Stokes with his dodgy knee? Where as although Jordan hasn't been at his peak, he knows how to do the closer role. Topley is in many ways a bigger loss than Bairstow, as he has been excellent and he gives you left arm, fast with good control and variations.
Or are England just going for the you score whatever your want, we will just score more with our mega smasher batting lineup.
Couldn’t this be just a Johnson supporter trying to make mischief .
Definitely. Sunak wihdrawing from a strong lead because members are mad would equal the party immediately being cleft in twain
I think Sunak is looking for over half the Parliamentary Party at which point he can say to the membership "you have no choice but to elect me".
Re the e-mail chaos, what's the chances there is a legal challenge that derails the timing of things?
Zero. Nowhere does it say *how* the choice has to be presented to members.
Tbh I think they are missing a trick by not making it possible to vote through local associations but maybe they trust them even less than Survey Monkey.
In all of the Boris "can he, can't he?" stuff, we are losing track of one big thing. If Rishi wins, the UK is about to have a Prime Minister of Indian heritage.
Stand back a moment - and think how massive that is.
If you want to show the world how far the country of Empire has come, there is no greater symbol. Imagine telling the memsahib a hundred years ago that our political figurehead would be one of...."them".
As important as Rishi would be in restoring the economy of the UK, he would also be an important player in the geopolitical game. Who better to ease Modi's India away from Russia and China than a G7 leader who has his roots in India? His role on the world stage may be far more important in the time he has in Number 10 than our current domestic navel gazing would suggest.
I notice that the Indian caste system makes no appearance in your post. I have no idea if it would be relevant, but Indians I have dealt with over the years seemed to be in thrall to it, even those in the UK.
In my experience, still alive. Some of the most appalling attitudes I have witnessed have been caste related in India.
But as with cricket, there are occasions when it is India United. I suspect seeing an Indian of whatever caste atop the old colonial power will be a cause of much rejoicing.
In Pakistan, maybe not so much.
I used to manage teams of programmers from India. More than one of them said that the most refreshing thing about working with non-Indians was that UK people seemed not to know (or care!) that caste existed.
OTOH, if they went into a corner shop run by Indians, before paying for anything, they needed to sort the caste issue out. More than one was refused a purchase by an Indian/UK shopkeeper. I found it hard to believe but it definitely happened.
On the plus side, they established links with some local Indian restaurants and I joined them for some fabulous "off-menu" meals that I never remembered the names of.... but they went mad for UK Fish 'n' Chips. It was by far and away their favourite.
I hate to say it, but surely we have to consider there's a good chance that Guido's anonymous Boris supporters are real - and that massively skews the rounding up from the BBC figures.
I'd also assume that if it's clearly a two way fight any of Mourdant's supporters who are Boris>Rishi will move to Boris.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 39m Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.
"At this time"!?
Once he is cleared of all the scurrilous charges laid against him by the standards committee.........
I think we will see that trend continue. My guess (insufficiently solid for a wager!) is that he will get about 85.
Yes, I think as MPs realise Boris will lose them their seats they will back Rishi. It's why we're getting JRM begging on the Telegraph for MPs to ensure there's a members ballot. They need for Rishi or Penny to lend Boris votes to get him to the 100 line. Hopefully neither are stupid enough to do that.
Rishi Sunak is largely responsible for our economical situation - he has, at least, more responsibility for it than any other single politician. The fact you've become so convinced to make the arsonist the fireman is a sad spectacle.
Rishi was the only major voice against lock downs in the cabinet. I've also been informed that he wanted to end the furlough months earlier but was blocked by the PM who wanted to keep it for all of 2021.
With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
The markets were entirely happy - and comfortable - buying Government debt at the height of the pandemic even when the taps were on full pelt. Now they panic about fiscal responsibility. I suspect that's more to do with the QE programmes being wound down than genuine concern about the needs to balance a budget.
A Sunak coronation (which looks quite possible now) means backbench chaos for him for 2 years. This will be equivalent to Major’s run in to the 1997 election: reasonable economic policies, awful party discipline and a voting public ready to vote the Tories out.
A Johnson win would trigger several orders of magnitude more chaos and probably a GE.
Only really stable outcome is Sunak beating Johnson with the members, which would hopefully force the ERG to shut up for a bit.
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Agree on what's coming at the GE - something good - but there's 2 ways I'm not 100% relaxed about the thought of him coming back. First off, just on the raw chemical level, I acutely dislike seeing and hearing him, which would start happening again if he's the PM. And second, having assessed the chances of him winning this as miniscule, I've laid the arse off him!
Yes you definitely have skin in the game! I can't say I share your faith in him not coming back. The banter heuristic suggests it should be nailed on.
I think Kinabalu is being very brave.
Heart over head??
No, honestly not. The betting bias I have - and strive to control - is of the opposite type; a tendency to want to go long on outcomes I'd hate to see actually happen. The 'emotional hedge'.
Here we have a happy coincidence of heart and head. I hate the idea of him coming back AND I think it should be much longer than 3.
A Sunak coronation (which looks quite possible now) means backbench chaos for him for 2 years. This will be equivalent to Major’s run in to the 1997 election: reasonable economic policies, awful party discipline and a voting public ready to vote the Tories out.
A Johnson win would trigger several orders of magnitude more chaos and probably a GE.
Only really stable outcome is Sunak beating Johnson with the members, which would hopefully force the ERG to shut up for a bit.
There wasnt awful party discipline in parliamentary terms running in to 97, he got BR privitisation through on buttons for example. Sleaze was a problem of course
Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.
They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.
Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Something is happening here and I DO know what it is (Mr Ace). It's a fair chunk of the white working class projecting their urges onto a Big Daddy figure who in their eyes gets them, tells it like it is, and is refreshingly different to normal politicians who are "all the same". Johnson isn't a dead ringer for rancid right wing populists such as Trump or Bolso or (insert any of a dozen) but there is some essential similarity.
I'm feeling strangely relaxed about the return of the FLSOJ. The reality is that he is finished, as are the Tories, whatever psychodrama plays out between now and the election. Boris Johnson and the English people who love him are of purely sociological and comedic interest to me now.
Actually I think it's in Johnson's interest not to come back at this stage. Allow himself to be "thwarted" by self-serving MPs, hapless stooge Sunak to lose the next election and come back in triumph after the election on a betrayal narrative. That's the Berlusconi playbook Johnson tends to follow.
I believe this is the subtext to Telegraph type commentary by eg Charles Moore saying he should sit this one out "in the national interest". They actually mean Johnson's interest.
There might not be a Conservative Party after the next election for Boris to come back to.
Comments
India needs Russia as a strategic counterweight to the Pakistan - China Alliance. The US could prise them away but it doesn't seem to be a priority.
Some companies are too small. You want to do something, but they just can't afford it.
Some companies are too big. You want to do something, but the approval process takes forever.
We were part of a large, slow moving club. We imagined being more nimble, but have found out we are just not big enough to matter.
1) some people are legacy members who joined in the 70s/80s/90s and have never been asked for an email address
2) some people have previously given an email address, but the stable geniuses at CCHQ send out a lot of spam and have set up their opt-out button to not just remove people from the mailing list but delete their email from CCHQ's database entirely (this caused a lot of "fun" conversations with ex-members who never got an email requesting they renew their membership because they'd opted out of the weekly begging missives and thus had lapsed memberships/couldn't vote in the leadership election).
3) the CCHQ database is a total mess of duplicate memberships, improperly logged memberships, etc, so that 13% will include people with two or three different constituency memberships (which all count towards the membership total) but only one email address
4) the average age of a Tory member is now 72, and a good chunk are in their 80s and 90s, so demographically you'd expect more people in that age bracket not to have email
I wonder if they're waiting to see what happens with Boris, and also any members polling. If polling comes out with numbers anything like the Truss/Sunak ballot, then he may think it would be better to wait.
Its also done in the disingenuous sly way that they write the first part (in attempt to get shared, with link to the actual quote 2 tweets down, that nobody will read).
Question about "trust in the medical system" becomes an interpretation about "The NHS", for example, ditto High Street Banks are interpreted as 'Bankers', and Religious Institutions as 'Vicars'.
Personally, much as I dislike Johnson I wouldn't boo him if he was on my plane with his family coming back from holiday, and I would imagine most people would feel the same. People should have better manners.
If you asked the average punter for a religious institution they'd say the C of E or a RC orphanage. Wouldn't think of a madrasa or a Jain temple.
There's a reason why container ships and cruise liners are more significant in the world than pirates in speedboats, however nimble the latter are.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamieJBartlett/status/1583693704917049345
Stand back: the leader of a G7 country will be elected by an online poll of <80,000 people. Truly bizarre - and a major moment for ‘digital democracy’.</i>
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583756919008743424
Despite Rishi Sunak now being above the 100 threshold, Team Boris still seem to think they'll get a coronation.
One MP points to the fact Rishi hasn't declared, saying he * won't * do so if Boris gets 100.
"He will not go to the members against Boris," he predicts
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583514599684395008
I don't know whether Mordaunt fits that or not. But it would be more of a kingmaker flex by Boris to back someone who hadn't previously been considered one of the candidates..
But as with cricket, there are occasions when it is India United. I suspect seeing an Indian of whatever caste atop the old colonial power will be a cause of much rejoicing.
In Pakistan, maybe not so much.
I'm heavily involved in the NHS. I am also involved with a Dentist, a GP (semi-detached from NHS), a Health Cash Plan, and several others.
I'm not at all sure if that persists about CofE anymore outside the London media, and journos pressing the Easi-Headline Key on their computers.
Her only hope is Boris pulls out
Let's see who ends up right.
If I were Boris I would pull out at best he will scrape just over the required 100
That looks a very weak bowling attack. Feels like trying to incorporate Stokes, Brook and Livingstone.
I believe this is the subtext to Telegraph type commentary by eg Charles Moore saying he should sit this one out "in the national interest". They actually mean Johnson's interest.
Heart over head??
With hindsight Rishi would probably change the schemes that were put in place to make them less generous and not have had lockdowns. Boris would replay it exactly as before, in fact I think he'd make furlough more generous.
What about a batsman with an inflated idea of his own bowling ability?
My big concern is Curran and Woakes are lovely pace for getting tonked and never convinced they have good enough variety. And Wood if he sprays it his super pace will go for boundaries....then what do you do, Stokes with his dodgy knee? Where as although Jordan hasn't been at his peak, he knows how to do the closer role. Topley is in many ways a bigger loss than Bairstow, as he has been excellent and he gives you left arm, fast with good control and variations.
Or are England just going for the you score whatever your want, we will just score more with our mega smasher batting lineup.
Re the e-mail chaos, what's the chances there is a legal challenge that derails the timing of things?
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1583758558998691840?s=20&t=FLsaewhTfEiqLrxdNyOEyw
Tbh I think they are missing a trick by not making it possible to vote through local associations but maybe they trust them even less than Survey Monkey.
OTOH, if they went into a corner shop run by Indians, before paying for anything, they needed to sort the caste issue out. More than one was refused a purchase by an Indian/UK shopkeeper. I found it hard to believe but it definitely happened.
On the plus side, they established links with some local Indian restaurants and I joined them for some fabulous "off-menu" meals that I never remembered the names of....
Since Ben Wallace was only leaning towards Boris, he hasn't yet got a single big name backer.
I'd also assume that if it's clearly a two way fight any of Mourdant's supporters who are Boris>Rishi will move to Boris.
28 more required
A Johnson win would trigger several orders of magnitude more chaos and probably a GE.
Only really stable outcome is Sunak beating Johnson with the members, which would hopefully force the ERG to shut up for a bit.
Here we have a happy coincidence of heart and head. I hate the idea of him coming back AND I think it should be much longer than 3.
Mine's a Bacardi waiter......