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This has major betting implications – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning from the Red Wall.



    Unsolicited political opinions I have been offered since yesterday.

    • Liz Truss is a fucking c--t who needs her fucking c--t kicking in. (Hard to disagree with this one).
    • That 'Little Indian' wears four shoes. (fucking LOL)
    • At least Boris had a plan. (So surprised at this fantastic assertion that I lacked the composure to challenge it.)
    • Keir Starmer is 'daft'.
    Your man on the spot in the dark heart of Brexitstan, Dura.
    How did you like the Trincomalee? I wonder how the officers' quarters compare with your experiences. Probably a lot nicer.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,739

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    I understand the emotion but that's sort of irrational because the ERG can be ejected by a vote, whereas you are locked into Brussels by treaty - the threshold for change is immeasurably higher, and it's really shit or bust.

    I share your frustration with the ERG, btw.
    It's not irrational, as the ERG are incompetent fuckwits who are deliberately and accidentally injurious to the country. And I cannot eject the ERG with a vote: my MP is not an ERGer.

    Brussels, for all its faults, is more competent. And again, I find it hard to write that.

    As an aside, how safe are the seats of the likes of JRM, Fox and Baker? Is there a possibility a rump Conservative Party would have more ERGers than sane Tories?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497

    Morning all! The deposed king lands back into Gatwick shortly. He will then have the weekend and Monday morning to speak to all the red wall mince and remind them that only he got them a seat and only he can save their seat.

    They will nominate him. MPs will vote for Sunak with increasingly hard warnings about what happens with a Johnson win.

    And members will vote for Johnson, triggering the final battle in the Tory civil war. Then a GE. With REFUK once again standing only against Tory MPs not mentalist enough.

    Tell me I am wrong on the two key points:
    1. Boris gets 100+ nominations
    2. Members will vote for Boris

    I cannot.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    edited October 2022
    TimS said:

    Seems ill tempered in here for a Saturday morning. I’d expect that more in an evening shift when alcohol has been consumed.

    A mixture of yah-boo I’m cleverer than you, and yah-boo my home nation is cleverer than your awful English one.

    My sons arriving back into Gatwick from his school trip today. Will he run into Boris?

    Maybe one of the positive effects of Sunak and Hunt running the country will be slightly less bad-temperedness (if that's a word).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    kamski said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.

    Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EU

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/

    And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.

    Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
    A hypothetical independent Scotland, of course, would be a realistic candidate.
    Really? Using which currency? And what budget deficit?
    Your budget deficit = your problem

    Has HS2 gone yet?
    That’s the Scottish dream? Walk away from 300 years without taking any of the combined debt? How do you think that works? Even in Brexit the most ardent leavers accepted there were bills to pay on leaving.
    Well, Ireland did. Admittedly it ran up its own massive debts to pay for the two wars that it led to.

    I think the more pressing problem for Scotland is not going to be debt - historic or otherwise - but sorting out the enormous current account deficit it runs, while either still using the pound or trying to arrange a new currency. That's something nobody seems to have a realistic answer to because the answer is, it can be done, but it will be incredibly painful and will probably leave Scotland as a Singapore on Tay before it stabilises.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    The power of Twitter. It was rumoured he tried to arrange a coup, so he had to be removed.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Rightly or wrongly people are correlating the mess in politics aswell as the country at large with Brexit.

    The revolving door of PMs since the vote hasn’t helped the right to leave lobby .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    kle4 said:

    The fundamental problem is the party is looking for a unity candidate who doesn't exist. At this point in time we conceivably might have 3 separate candidates with 100 MPs backing them, more likely just two. But it means whoever wins will immediately face the same problems as Truss since about a third of the MPs are implacably opposed to any available option.

    They need a compromise candidate not a unity candidate.

    That should have been Penny. But the question they're asking now is how they get through the coming horrendous year with their reputation for economic prudence even halfway intact, and their answer is Sunak and Hunt.

    Raab was fully on-script on R4 just now, even using the formula "latest Friday", as Brady did, because they're all set on getting this done Monday if humanly possible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    I understand the emotion but that's sort of irrational because the ERG can be ejected by a vote, whereas you are locked into Brussels by treaty - the threshold for change is immeasurably higher, and it's really shit or bust.

    I share your frustration with the ERG, btw.
    It's not irrational, as the ERG are incompetent fuckwits who are deliberately and accidentally injurious to the country. And I cannot eject the ERG with a vote: my MP is not an ERGer.

    Brussels, for all its faults, is more competent. And again, I find it hard to write that.

    As an aside, how safe are the seats of the likes of JRM, Fox and Baker? Is there a possibility a rump Conservative Party would have more ERGers than sane Tories?
    Wycombe's marginal. A strong tactical operation by Labour hoovering up Lib Dem votes would see it go even without any swing from the Tories.

    North Somerset and North East Somerset both have the problem that there's no one obvious challenger, although Labour held NE Somerset's predecessor seat of Wansdyke until 2010. I would have thought they're pretty safe.

    Although I'm not sure Fox will stand again in North Somerset. He is over 60 and he seems rather disengaged these days.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,018

    kamski said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    That’s a hyper-partisan post if I ever I saw one. And I wish it was true. But it’s not.

    Nonsense, it's perfectly objective: Starmer lied to the socialists, and junked that platform once he'd won the Labour leadership. He will do the same as PM.

    You just want to shoot this down, now, because you're desperate for him to win. He's a pointlessly dull tactical triangulator, nothing more.

    Btw, you're someone who I used to respect, but no longer do because you decided to go off the deep-end and become a hyperpartisan bore and a pound-shop Damian McBride, fuelled by Twitter. I know I'm not alone because several people messaged me privately to say the same.

    Reflect on that.
    Several posts now from you that come across as both nasty and obnoxiously patronising.
    "Reflect on that"
    The only nasty ones on here this morning have been ones rife with raw personal abuse.

    You are entirely silent on these.
    I saw Heathener call you a dick, I'm sorry if that upset you, but you were kind of asking for it (I assumed deliberately?)

    Personally I find straightforward abuse eg "dick" easier to stomach than "a period of silence from you" style of shit, but that's just my personal preference.

    StuartDickson making some kind of psychiatric diagnosis I wholeheartedly condemn,even though it's something I have probably been guilty of in the past. I hadn't seen it when I posted my comment, (which I accept was also nasty). It should be against forum rules.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    nico679 said:

    Rightly or wrongly people are correlating the mess in politics aswell as the country at large with Brexit.

    The revolving door of PMs since the vote hasn’t helped the right to leave lobby .

    Well, it's the Brexiters who have been running the UKG like it was a clown car for the last few years. And giving top priority to Brexit in appearance, while being unable to complete it or sort it out in reality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    edited October 2022
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    That’s a hyper-partisan post if I ever I saw one. And I wish it was true. But it’s not.

    Nonsense, it's perfectly objective: Starmer lied to the socialists, and junked that platform once he'd won the Labour leadership. He will do the same as PM.

    You just want to shoot this down, now, because you're desperate for him to win. He's a pointlessly dull tactical triangulator, nothing more.

    Btw, you're someone who I used to respect, but no longer do because you decided to go off the deep-end and become a hyperpartisan bore and a pound-shop Damian McBride, fuelled by Twitter. I know I'm not alone because several people messaged me privately to say the same.

    Reflect on that.
    Several posts now from you that come across as both nasty and obnoxiously patronising.
    "Reflect on that"
    The only nasty ones on here this morning have been ones rife with raw personal abuse.

    You are entirely silent on these.
    I saw Heathener call you a dick, I'm sorry if that upset you, but you were kind of asking for it (I assumed deliberately?)

    Personally I find straightforward abuse eg "dick" easier to stomach than "a period of silence from you" style of shit, but that's just my personal preference.

    StuartDickson making some kind of psychiatric diagnosis I wholeheartedly condemn,even though it's something I have probably been guilty of in the past. I hadn't seen it when I posted my comment, (which I accept was also nasty). It should be against forum rules.
    That one gets away with a lot. He dissed Radiohead only the other day and got away with it where others don't.

    I think it's because his posts are so unintentionally hilarious the mods feel we should be allowed to point and laugh at them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,152
    edited October 2022

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,621

    Mr. JS, I think it's possible but very unlikely Sunak and Hunt could turn this around to the extent of the Conservatives winning in a couple of years.

    I think that's wishful thinking on your part.

    But maybe *that's* wishful thinking on my part? ;-)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    See my post early this morning. They have plenty of levers to pull. If he stands, he will be taking on them all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    nico679 said:

    The fact we’re even discussing the return of Johnson shows just how bad politics has become in the UK .

    The Tory MPs proposing his return are just ignoring the last year and pretending it never happened .

    Quite so. And pretty brazenly too. Take Wallace again - his justification for backing Boris is he's a winner, as if nothing is relevant besides that and it would be impossible that he is no longer a winner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    TimS said:

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    China’s going down the rabbit hole. Unless you’re very lucky and your dictator happens to be an extremely competent administrator like Lee Kuan Yew, autocracy is never going to be good for an economy. And Xi doesn’t seem to be a good administrator.

    China is slowly turning into a crony capitalist, introverted state which will throttle innovation and long term growth prospects, while seeing the most rapidly ageing population and loss of working age cohort of any major country. And it seems highly unlikely to replace lost demographics with mass immigration.
    China seemed to be moving in the right direction in about 2005. Sad to see it all that potential turn to dust.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    TBF, it would be an easier choice if Brussels didn't keep picking total wrong 'uns like Juncker and von der Leyen to run things.
    With Truss in the rear view mirror... are you serious or just having a laugh?
    Serious. Truss is an idiot, but she hasn't been accused of tapping her opponents' phones to try and eliminate them from political life. Or of illegally abrogating an international treaty in an act of personal spite. Or indeed of alcoholism, or forging a doctoral thesis.

    She might have done some of those, given time. She did promote all her weird friends to jobs they were totally unsuited to and did very badly, much as Juncker did with the Nazi apologist Selmayr.

    But compared to them she's a fool, not a knave.

    And the other thing to say is, that's a consistent pattern going back years. Too many politicians driven from their countries for incompetence, failure or indeed out and out criminality (Giscard, anyone?) have found a home in Brussels.

    It is one of the big weaknesses of the EU and one it needs to find an answer for.
    Having a dumping ground for politicians is not that unusual. We have the Lords :wink: But I think that, by its nature, politics will always attract a sleazy element of the population. Any polity will have a proportion of knaves and fools. We have Boris, Truss, the ERG, etc. The Yanks and Trump and his coterie of hangers-on. The Aussies had Morrison, the Italians have their new Mussolini, etc, etc.

    You do not have to look too hard to find examples of corrupt politicians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't like technocrats much but I'm supporting Sunak and Hunt this time because the populists had their chance and made a total mess of it.

    Well done.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,621
    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?
  • ydoethur said:

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    The power of Twitter. It was rumoured he tried to arrange a coup, so he had to be removed.
    China teacoup?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    edited October 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    TBF, it would be an easier choice if Brussels didn't keep picking total wrong 'uns like Juncker and von der Leyen to run things.
    With Truss in the rear view mirror... are you serious or just having a laugh?
    Serious. Truss is an idiot, but she hasn't been accused of tapping her opponents' phones to try and eliminate them from political life. Or of illegally abrogating an international treaty in an act of personal spite. Or indeed of alcoholism, or forging a doctoral thesis.

    She might have done some of those, given time. She did promote all her weird friends to jobs they were totally unsuited to and did very badly, much as Juncker did with the Nazi apologist Selmayr.

    But compared to them she's a fool, not a knave.

    And the other thing to say is, that's a consistent pattern going back years. Too many politicians driven from their countries for incompetence, failure or indeed out and out criminality (Giscard, anyone?) have found a home in Brussels.

    It is one of the big weaknesses of the EU and one it needs to find an answer for.
    Having a dumping ground for politicians is not that unusual. We have the Lords :wink: But I think that, by its nature, politics will always attract a sleazy element of the population. Any polity will have a proportion of knaves and fools. We have Boris, Truss, the ERG, etc. The Yanks and Trump and his coterie of hangers-on. The Aussies had Morrison, the Italians have their new Mussolini, etc, etc.

    You do not have to look too hard to find examples of corrupt politicians.
    With respect, you're missing the point. I'm saying it's harder to accept the EU because its politicians are useless and/or criminals. That's separate from whether ours are too, which is simply whataboutery.

    If the EU didn't select seriously corrupt and dangerous loons who in this country would be facing long prison sentences, and make it impossible to remove them even when they commit further crimes, it would take away a key grievance people had about it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Email debacle.
    Lawsuit.
    Vote by snail mail
    Deadlines extended.
    Liz Truss exits in 2023.

    You heard it here first.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    Difficult to believe the Tories are on 14% with one pollster and 19% with others. They'd be reduced to about 50 seats on those numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    edited October 2022

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    J R Clynes? Austen Chamberlain? Charles Dilke?

    Edit - although surely the most obvious answer is Charles James Fox.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
  • nico679 said:

    Rightly or wrongly people are correlating the mess in politics aswell as the country at large with Brexit.

    The revolving door of PMs since the vote hasn’t helped the right to leave lobby .

    Good morning

    The polls indicating leaving was wrong have increased, but that does not affirm that public opinion is for us to re -join and to be honest continuing to try to reverse Brexit is tedious when we should all work towards a good relationship with the EU and the first indications of a compromise came recently with Macron's desire to have a close relationship with an outer group of nations including UK, Norway, Iceland and others

    Truss did attend the first meeting and I understand the next is scheduled for London

    The extreme leavers and remainers who will not consider compromise are ensuring the issue is going to continue indefinitely, when we should seek the sensible middle course and I give Starmer credit for recognising this
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453
    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    Boris will sort Britain out, get Brexit done and win the war in Ukraine!!

    And they would likely believe it and vote for him
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    Loves a bit of drama does Emperor Xi. Had him sat next to him at the time for the lolz.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,850
    Mr. kle4, pro-Boris types also neglect that he was aided massively by being against Corbyn (who was far less popular/given a free pass than in 2017) and people were fed up with the gridlock over leaving the EU in Parliament and wanted it resolved.

    Neither apply now, and the joke has worn thin, and he was known to breach his own lockdown rules repeatedly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
    The Tories have messed up so badly that Brexit might actually be reversed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    I understand the emotion but that's sort of irrational because the ERG can be ejected by a vote, whereas you are locked into Brussels by treaty - the threshold for change is immeasurably higher, and it's really shit or bust.

    I share your frustration with the ERG, btw.
    It's not irrational, as the ERG are incompetent fuckwits who are deliberately and accidentally injurious to the country. And I cannot eject the ERG with a vote: my MP is not an ERGer.

    Brussels, for all its faults, is more competent. And again, I find it hard to write that.

    As an aside, how safe are the seats of the likes of JRM, Fox and Baker? Is there a possibility a rump Conservative Party would have more ERGers than sane Tories?
    Wycombe's marginal. A strong tactical operation by Labour hoovering up Lib Dem votes would see it go even without any swing from the Tories.

    North Somerset and North East Somerset both have the problem that there's no one obvious challenger, although Labour held NE Somerset's predecessor seat of Wansdyke until 2010. I would have thought they're pretty safe.

    Although I'm not sure Fox will stand again in North Somerset. He is over 60 and he seems rather disengaged these days.
    As a general rule, the extremists tend towards the safer seats, for reasons that can be left as an exercise for the reader....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    See my post early this morning. They have plenty of levers to pull. If he stands, he will be taking on them all.
    Those levers are bunk. They've already been pulled and they still want him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    Andy_JS said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    Difficult to believe the Tories are on 14% with one pollster and 19% with others. They'd be reduced to about 50 seats on those numbers.
    Just 6% of under 50s back the Tories. ☠️
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    See my post early this morning. They have plenty of levers to pull. If he stands, he will be taking on them all.
    Those levers are bunk. They've already been pulled and they still want him.
    Yes, we haven't heard what they are. Take him off their Christmas card list?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    For once I hope he’s right:

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583725081876127744
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The fact we’re even discussing the return of Johnson shows just how bad politics has become in the UK .

    The Tory MPs proposing his return are just ignoring the last year and pretending it never happened .

    Quite so. And pretty brazenly too. Take Wallace again - his justification for backing Boris is he's a winner, as if nothing is relevant besides that and it would be impossible that he is no longer a winner.
    Wallace is "leaning towards" Johnson (having been his seconder last time!) out of loyalty and hoping to defend his budget against Hunt. He's a pragmatist, and may well be leaning the other way quite soon...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744

    Football: couple of bets:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/epl-and-la-liga-thoughts-22-october.html

    Backed Bournemouth to win away at West Ham, at 6.6. Value at those odds, I think.

    I would back Arsenal at Southampton, Brentford at Villa, and Leicester at Wolves for away wins.

    Leicester have looked a lot better defensively since our drubbing at Spurs, and have always scored.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    Although what he might do is take stakes in the water and power companies in exchange for capital injections to pay for the renewal of the grids. Which we are in urgent need of, particularly water but the electricity grid will also need significant upgrades as we use more of it for e.g. electric cars and heaters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    Imagining Boris and Tory members marching on Graham Brady's office waving pitchforks, trying to overturn the result.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,739
    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.

    He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.

    When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    The member vote looks a total shambles. I'd believe the intent was and remains that it wont actually happen, that the MPs will sort it, but I dont see how that occurs. Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference? With the backing of some popular non fruitcakes gaining a third of those looks very achievable.

    At that point a member vote is inevitable since what offer gets him to stand down? Something big on Ukraine isn't enough, and anything truly big would undermine a need to move on - if he's unsuitable to be PM for the reasons we all know, then he's unsuitable for any department.

    See my post early this morning. They have plenty of levers to pull. If he stands, he will be taking on them all.
    Those levers are bunk. They've already been pulled and they still want him.
    Nah. Politics is, ultimately, a team game; even Johnson knows that, even though he's not a team player.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    EXCL: No 10 staff are preparing to give evidence at the privileges committee inquiry into Boris Johnson

    Raises the extraordinary prospect, if he returns, of the PM’s honesty being questioned by his own staff

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2d1caca8-5180-11ed-b120-ca4f3ffbcdc5?shareToken=e29821b2a5718d5705e0debc4b33bcd3

    Starting early next month, the committee will hold public evidence sessions as often as three times a week. Partygate will be front and centre once again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The fact we’re even discussing the return of Johnson shows just how bad politics has become in the UK .

    The Tory MPs proposing his return are just ignoring the last year and pretending it never happened .

    Quite so. And pretty brazenly too. Take Wallace again - his justification for backing Boris is he's a winner, as if nothing is relevant besides that and it would be impossible that he is no longer a winner.
    Wallace is "leaning towards" Johnson (having been his seconder last time!) out of loyalty and hoping to defend his budget against Hunt. He's a pragmatist, and may well be leaning the other way quite soon...
    I dont buy that. With the number of open nominations Boris has a big hitter like Wallace coming out with that is as good as an endorsement. He could have sat it out and kept quiet if he was a pragmatist, but his words will have dramatically boosted Boris. You dont boost if you are on the fence.

    He was just covering his arse so he could claim it was not an endorsement later if needed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The fact we’re even discussing the return of Johnson shows just how bad politics has become in the UK .

    The Tory MPs proposing his return are just ignoring the last year and pretending it never happened .

    Quite so. And pretty brazenly too. Take Wallace again - his justification for backing Boris is he's a winner, as if nothing is relevant besides that and it would be impossible that he is no longer a winner.
    Wallace is "leaning towards" Johnson (having been his seconder last time!) out of loyalty and hoping to defend his budget against Hunt. He's a pragmatist, and may well be leaning the other way quite soon...
    I too noticed the careful choice of words - I suspect “reassurances were being sought” from Sunak. “Wallace backing Johnson” was over reading his remarks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,850
    Dr. Foxy, interesting suggestions, I'll give them a closer look a little later when I have some more time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No 10 staff are preparing to give evidence at the privileges committee inquiry into Boris Johnson

    Raises the extraordinary prospect, if he returns, of the PM’s honesty being questioned by his own staff

    There is no prospect of his honesty being questioned.

    That's because he doesn't have any honesty to question.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
    The Tories have messed up so badly that Brexit might actually be reversed.
    I’m one of those bitter Remainers , you couldn’t find anyone more pro EU but any thoughts of re-joining are for another generation and only if there’s a huge majority for it .

    Many people I know feel the same way . Labour should advocate a closer relationship with the EU but not go anywhere near the single market as that involves FOM which seems to be electoral kryptonite .

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,773
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning from the Red Wall.



    Unsolicited political opinions I have been offered since yesterday.

    • Liz Truss is a fucking c--t who needs her fucking c--t kicking in. (Hard to disagree with this one).
    • That 'Little Indian' wears four shoes. (fucking LOL)
    • At least Boris had a plan. (So surprised at this fantastic assertion that I lacked the composure to challenge it.)
    • Keir Starmer is 'daft'.
    Your man on the spot in the dark heart of Brexitstan, Dura.
    How did you like the Trincomalee? I wonder how the officers' quarters compare with your experiences. Probably a lot nicer.
    I was there to consult on some of the aviation exhibits in the planned extension so I didn't go aboard on this trip but I recall the wardroom as not being a compellingly authentic representation of shipboard life in the 19th C. Andrew.

    My first lengthy trip on one of HM the Q's war canoes was as a callow midshipman on an RFA tanker which was appointed and provisioned to civvie standards. I thought, well this isn't too bad...

    Then my next draft for my watchkeeping certificate was on a T22 in the North Sea in January and February. My grot was a sleeping bag on top of two filing cabinets in a dank space I shared with a clankie who enthusiastically pleasured his reeking cock four times a night, every night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744
    Andy_JS said:

    Someone's messed about with that image of Johnson, surely.
    Be annoying to have him snoring away next to you in cattle class and overspilling the arm rest!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,739
    Anyway, we're off to see Hadrian's Wall, and then a few days to show the little 'un the delights of Edinburgh.

    I'm *really* looking forward to visiting Edinburgh again. I love the place. (And I'm also reading the latest Rebus book...) I was going to take him in the summer, but Edinburgh during the festival does not really feel like Edinburgh, especially for a first visit.

    Mrs J is worried I might just head off and do another lap around the coast... ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,621
    ydoethur said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    J R Clynes? Austen Chamberlain? Charles Dilke?

    Edit - although surely the most obvious answer is Charles James Fox.
    Confess I have never heard of Clynes and Like, so they fail my own personal test.

    Charles James Fox is a good shout.

    Not (allowed to be) a politician as such but Emmeline Pankhurst might be said to have achieved more than most PMs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
    The Tories have messed up so badly that Brexit might actually be reversed.
    I’m one of those bitter Remainers , you couldn’t find anyone more pro EU but any thoughts of re-joining are for another generation and only if there’s a huge majority for it .

    Many people I know feel the same way . Labour should advocate a closer relationship with the EU but not go anywhere near the single market as that involves FOM which seems to be electoral kryptonite .

    Immigration may not have the currency it once did? Even the Tories just came close to junking their anti-immigration policy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone's messed about with that image of Johnson, surely.
    Be annoying to have him snoring away next to you in cattle class and overspilling the arm rest!
    I thought he'd been on a diet and had lost a few stones recently!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No 10 staff are preparing to give evidence at the privileges committee inquiry into Boris Johnson

    Raises the extraordinary prospect, if he returns, of the PM’s honesty being questioned by his own staff

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2d1caca8-5180-11ed-b120-ca4f3ffbcdc5?shareToken=e29821b2a5718d5705e0debc4b33bcd3

    Starting early next month, the committee will hold public evidence sessions as often as three times a week. Partygate will be front and centre once again

    Boris 2.0 might not last long.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,319

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    What is truly astonishing is that they have done all this a year after the last poll lead.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,773
    edited October 2022
    Anyway the very stong sentiment I've got from my short trip here is that if the tories want to keep seats like Hartlepool it has to be Johnson. No ifs, buts or maybes.

    They actively hate Sunak and have no idea who Penny Dreadful is.

    Also, I have never known so many people eager to discuss politics with a relative stranger. There's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. I suspect the tories are Cretaceous dinosaurs and there is a big fuck off asteroid heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    edited October 2022

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Elizabeth II
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
    The Tories have messed up so badly that Brexit might actually be reversed.
    I’m one of those bitter Remainers , you couldn’t find anyone more pro EU but any thoughts of re-joining are for another generation and only if there’s a huge majority for it .

    Many people I know feel the same way . Labour should advocate a closer relationship with the EU but not go anywhere near the single market as that involves FOM which seems to be electoral kryptonite .

    Immigration may not have the currency it once did? Even the Tories just came close to junking their anti-immigration policy
    Yes we’re going to end up with overall immigration going up not down but the issue of FOM still remains a hot potato.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,739
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning from the Red Wall.



    Unsolicited political opinions I have been offered since yesterday.

    • Liz Truss is a fucking c--t who needs her fucking c--t kicking in. (Hard to disagree with this one).
    • That 'Little Indian' wears four shoes. (fucking LOL)
    • At least Boris had a plan. (So surprised at this fantastic assertion that I lacked the composure to challenge it.)
    • Keir Starmer is 'daft'.
    Your man on the spot in the dark heart of Brexitstan, Dura.
    How did you like the Trincomalee? I wonder how the officers' quarters compare with your experiences. Probably a lot nicer.
    I was there to consult on some of the aviation exhibits in the planned extension so I didn't go aboard on this trip but I recall the wardroom as not being a compellingly authentic representation of shipboard life in the 19th C. Andrew.

    My first lengthy trip on one of HM the Q's war canoes was as a callow midshipman on an RFA tanker which was appointed and provisioned to civvie standards. I thought, well this isn't too bad...

    Then my next draft for my watchkeeping certificate was on a T22 in the North Sea in January and February. My grot was a sleeping bag on top of two filing cabinets in a dank space I shared with a clankie who enthusiastically pleasured his reeking cock four times a night, every night.
    I once sailed on the Jeanie Johnston from Southampton to Dublin. The JJ is a replica of a tall ship that used to take Irish immigrants to America. There were a couple of dozen people on board, and after four days the place reeked. In 1852 she carried 254 people from Ireland to Canada in one journey. It must have been hellish.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    TBF, it would be an easier choice if Brussels didn't keep picking total wrong 'uns like Juncker and von der Leyen to run things.
    With Truss in the rear view mirror... are you serious or just having a laugh?
    Serious. Truss is an idiot, but she hasn't been accused of tapping her opponents' phones to try and eliminate them from political life. Or of illegally abrogating an international treaty in an act of personal spite. Or indeed of alcoholism, or forging a doctoral thesis.

    She might have done some of those, given time. She did promote all her weird friends to jobs they were totally unsuited to and did very badly, much as Juncker did with the Nazi apologist Selmayr.

    But compared to them she's a fool, not a knave.

    And the other thing to say is, that's a consistent pattern going back years. Too many politicians driven from their countries for incompetence, failure or indeed out and out criminality (Giscard, anyone?) have found a home in Brussels.

    It is one of the big weaknesses of the EU and one it needs to find an answer for.
    Having a dumping ground for politicians is not that unusual. We have the Lords :wink: But I think that, by its nature, politics will always attract a sleazy element of the population. Any polity will have a proportion of knaves and fools. We have Boris, Truss, the ERG, etc. The Yanks and Trump and his coterie of hangers-on. The Aussies had Morrison, the Italians have their new Mussolini, etc, etc.

    You do not have to look too hard to find examples of corrupt politicians.
    With respect, you're missing the point. I'm saying it's harder to accept the EU because its politicians are useless and/or criminals. That's separate from whether ours are too, which is simply whataboutery.

    If the EU didn't select seriously corrupt and dangerous loons who in this country would be facing long prison sentences, and make it impossible to remove them even when they commit further crimes, it would take away a key grievance people had about it.
    There is a certain degree of whataboutery involved simply because the corrupt and dangerous are attracted to money and power and politics is a way to both. I do not think you can have politics without a certain amount of knavery.

    But I do agree that when they are exposed, they should either be disqualified or locked up.

    The advantage that the EU has is that power is much more distributed and consensus driven whereas over here, it's Boris or Truss or Starmer. Total power in one individual vs Brussels's endless Committees, Commissions, etc
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,318

    For once I hope he’s right:

    Momentum obviously swinging wildly. And it could shift again. But it’s clear there is a growing consensus across the Tory Party this morning that Boris is not a viable option at this time.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583725081876127744

    Flying back out to the Caribbean on Monday evening?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    TimS said:

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    China’s going down the rabbit hole. Unless you’re very lucky and your dictator happens to be an extremely competent administrator like Lee Kuan Yew, autocracy is never going to be good for an economy. And Xi doesn’t seem to be a good administrator.
    Welcome to the rabbit hole China

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,820

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,189

    MattW said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    ... A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base.
    Hmm. Bring back British Rail, a nationalised electricity system, and water boards.

    I can't think of three more backward-looking policies, whether his base loves it or not. Some modest reform of regulation, possibly. Renationalisation - Starmer would have to be mainlining temazepam to do that if he wants things that will actually work, and I just don't think he is that stupid.

    Corbyn would try and do it. Starmer will not.

    I agree. But 'renationalisation' will be a great cover for centrist things he needs to get done. I'm not saying he will nationalise everything, just a few choice things. Water - I cannot even see why that was privatised. Parts of the energy sector. Rail.

    He might not go for the Royal Mail, as it's future is (ahem) 'interesting', and he might not want to get lumbered with its problems.

    When he does reantionalise stuff, it'll be interesting to see what structures emerge for the new organisations. I'm not hopeful they'll be good ones.
    The universal service should be state funded as it is loss making but everything else RM does should remain private
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No 10 staff are preparing to give evidence at the privileges committee inquiry into Boris Johnson

    Raises the extraordinary prospect, if he returns, of the PM’s honesty being questioned by his own staff

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2d1caca8-5180-11ed-b120-ca4f3ffbcdc5?shareToken=e29821b2a5718d5705e0debc4b33bcd3

    Starting early next month, the committee will hold public evidence sessions as often as three times a week. Partygate will be front and centre once again

    Boris 2.0 might not last long.
    I thought he was planning to can the committee, Owen Patterson style, until that was scuppered by his first defenestration. If Johnson makes it back to PM, the only way he stays is to go full-frontal Trump.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,850
    Mrs C, the lack of accountability is not an advantage.

    For all the dislike of Truss, she was toppled with alacrity.

    The Second Punic War teaches us how much more important a good system is than a great leader. I have some sympathy for Verhofstadt's desire for federalist approach as he at least recognises the flaws of power without accountability and the democratic gap that opens up as a result.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone's messed about with that image of Johnson, surely.
    Be annoying to have him snoring away next to you in cattle class and overspilling the arm rest!
    I thought he'd been on a diet and had lost a few stones recently!
    Looking muscular again?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    I'm loving all these stories about the privileges committee, and if a desperate to remind MPs and members in case theyd forgotten.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,189
    nico679 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can Rishi and Hunt win the next election for the Tories in 2024/25?

    No one can.

    But pretending Boris can do a repeat of 2019 when the situation is very different is just crazy.
    If anyone can pivot to campaign and win next time on the slogan "Get Brexit Undone!".....? ;)
    The Tories have messed up so badly that Brexit might actually be reversed.
    I’m one of those bitter Remainers , you couldn’t find anyone more pro EU but any thoughts of re-joining are for another generation and only if there’s a huge majority for it .

    Many people I know feel the same way . Labour should advocate a closer relationship with the EU but not go anywhere near the single market as that involves FOM which seems to be electoral kryptonite .

    Immigration may not have the currency it once did? Even the Tories just came close to junking their anti-immigration policy
    Yes we’re going to end up with overall immigration going up not down but the issue of FOM still remains a hot potato.
    And it can be reduced if you tighten the points system rules which now apply the same to all immigration to the UK from outside the British Isles. FOM meant that was impossible for EU immigration
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    kle4 said:

    I'm loving all these stories about the privileges committee, and if a desperate to remind MPs and members in case theyd forgotten.

    That’s the elephant in the room and that’s why I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Johnson wins with the members .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    It's not a guarantee he gets there. But he's worryingly high already.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,290

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Roy Jenkins. Postwar anyway

    And good morning one and all!

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,392
    Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Elizabeth II
    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    That’s a hyper-partisan post if I ever I saw one. And I wish it was true. But it’s not.

    Nonsense, it's perfectly objective: Starmer lied to the socialists, and junked that platform once he'd won the Labour leadership. He will do the same as PM.

    You just want to shoot this down, now, because you're desperate for him to win. He's a pointlessly dull tactical triangulator, nothing more.

    Btw, you're someone who I used to respect, but no longer do because you decided to go off the deep-end and become a hyperpartisan bore and a pound-shop Damian McBride, fuelled by Twitter. I know I'm not alone because several people messaged me privately to say the same.

    Reflect on that.
    Several posts now from you that come across as both nasty and obnoxiously patronising.
    "Reflect on that"
    The only nasty ones on here this morning have been ones rife with raw personal abuse.

    You are entirely silent on these.
    I saw Heathener call you a dick, I'm sorry if that upset you, but you were kind of asking for it (I assumed deliberately?)

    Personally I find straightforward abuse eg "dick" easier to stomach than "a period of silence from you" style of shit, but that's just my personal preference.

    StuartDickson making some kind of psychiatric diagnosis I wholeheartedly condemn,even though it's something I have probably been guilty of in the past. I hadn't seen it when I posted my comment, (which I accept was also nasty). It should be against forum rules.
    That one gets away with a lot. He dissed Radiohead only the other day and got away with it where others don't.

    I think it's because his posts are so unintentionally hilarious the mods feel we should be allowed to point and laugh at them.
    I regularly dis Radiohead and Python (the programming language, not Monty) because one sounds like music for funeral parlours and the other has rubbish abstraction layers and memory management and even lacks proper arrays. How did they design a programming language without full blown array handling? Unbelivable!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,319
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    China’s going down the rabbit hole. Unless you’re very lucky and your dictator happens to be an extremely competent administrator like Lee Kuan Yew, autocracy is never going to be good for an economy. And Xi doesn’t seem to be a good administrator.

    China is slowly turning into a crony capitalist, introverted state which will throttle innovation and long term growth prospects, while seeing the most rapidly ageing population and loss of working age cohort of any major country. And it seems highly unlikely to replace lost demographics with mass immigration.
    China seemed to be moving in the right direction in about 2005. Sad to see it all that potential turn to dust.
    Thinking about the years 2005 onwards, what has been quite interesting from my point of view is that the fate of Russia and China have proven that authoritarianism is a bad form of government. Even though liberal democracy has had lots of problems in this time, it is still preferable to the alternatives. It looks good at the start, order is imposed, things get done.... but then it ends in Putin's imperial wars or Xi's totalitarianism.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,152
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    TBF, it would be an easier choice if Brussels didn't keep picking total wrong 'uns like Juncker and von der Leyen to run things.
    Not the strongest of grounds for the UK to mount a critique of the EU!
    I'd say that by comparison UK politicians have quite clean hands.

    Our political scandals are usually over things that would be trifles elsewhere, or not even noticed.

    How many former UK PMs have received jail sentences for corruption in the last half century?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,152

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone's messed about with that image of Johnson, surely.
    Be annoying to have him snoring away next to you in cattle class and overspilling the arm rest!
    I thought he'd been on a diet and had lost a few stones recently!
    Looking muscular again?
    Data is irrelevant. The point is to demonise.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    edited October 2022
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    If Johnson gets to say, 90 nominations, and only Sunak makes the threshold, there's going to be some very disgruntled members.
    And a substantial internal opposition in Parliament.*

    *Of course. There'll be that anyways.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Roy Jenkins. Postwar anyway

    And good morning one and all!

    John Smith? Remember him?
  • Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No 10 staff are preparing to give evidence at the privileges committee inquiry into Boris Johnson

    Raises the extraordinary prospect, if he returns, of the PM’s honesty being questioned by his own staff

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2d1caca8-5180-11ed-b120-ca4f3ffbcdc5?shareToken=e29821b2a5718d5705e0debc4b33bcd3

    Starting early next month, the committee will hold public evidence sessions as often as three times a week. Partygate will be front and centre once again

    Boris 2.0 might not last long.
    I thought he was planning to can the committee, Owen Patterson style, until that was scuppered by his first defenestration. If Johnson makes it back to PM, the only way he stays is to go full-frontal Trump.
    The "easy" way to do this is a quick GE and make the public the jury. If he wins the new intake can "legitimately" cancel the investigation if needed (not sure if a GE resets these things regardless).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,402
    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    His seat was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,392
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Emperor Xi just had his predecessor Hu Jintao hauled out of the CCP summit on live TV in full view of everyone

    Ruthless
    [video]

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583694209982164993?

    Don’t act like this is the first time you’ve seen a communist purge



    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1583698712760459264

    China’s going down the rabbit hole. Unless you’re very lucky and your dictator happens to be an extremely competent administrator like Lee Kuan Yew, autocracy is never going to be good for an economy. And Xi doesn’t seem to be a good administrator.

    China is slowly turning into a crony capitalist, introverted state which will throttle innovation and long term growth prospects, while seeing the most rapidly ageing population and loss of working age cohort of any major country. And it seems highly unlikely to replace lost demographics with mass immigration.
    China seemed to be moving in the right direction in about 2005. Sad to see it all that potential turn to dust.
    Thinking about the years 2005 onwards, what has been quite interesting from my point of view is that the fate of Russia and China have proven that authoritarianism is a bad form of government. Even though liberal democracy has had lots of problems in this time, it is still preferable to the alternatives. It looks good at the start, order is imposed, things get done.... but then it ends in Putin's imperial wars or Xi's totalitarianism.
    It is interesting how the two regimes differ, though. China is an autocratic, centralising bureaucracy (albeit regionalised), whereas Russia is a network of gangster tribes with a kingpin. Their failure modes are different.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,257
    Von de Leyen is doing her best and I've been surprised by her competence, but she's dealing with an impossible task. Hungary, Italy, and especially France and Germany have too many differences and they're beginning to show.

    Perhaps they need us as an honest broker?

    Too bad, as Macron and France are pleased we've gone. The Scandinavians miss us, but they have no say. The European dream of an United Europe who speak with one voice is proving hollow. Covid and Ukraine are the fault lines. The European TV channels are pushing the line that "They've agreed to discuss a solution." Meaning they failed to agree after feverous overnight arguing.

    The Ex-Soviet states don't trust Putin an inch, and when even Sweden wants to join NATO, it's serious. But Macron and Scholz have their own opinions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    In recent years…

    Robin Cook
    John Smith
    Ken Clarke
    William Hague

    Would have been interesting to see in number 10. Maybe not post war greats, but all a million miles better than recent incumbents.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,290
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w

    Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
    Again.

    Starmer is lying.

    He will rejoin the single market as soon as he wins, just as he junked the socialists after he became Labour leader and no longer needed them.
    I don't think that will happen - at least in his first term. He will have enough other stuff to throw as red meat for the left-leaning voter. EU membership of whatever sort might be a bone better left for a second or third term.

    But if it does happen, then Brexiteers and Europhobes will have no reason to complain. Brexit has not damaged the country and destroyed the Conservative Party; Brexiteers and their one-eyed monomania have.
    EEA first term, and EU membership the second.

    As I've said time and time before going back to the status-quo antebellum (or worse) offers no peace and no enduring settlement.

    The fact that Brexit has been challenging doesn't vindicate anyone who argued against it and therefore justify going back to square one, learning and forgetting nothing in so doing.

    All the old problems of our EU membership will simply re-emerge again, with bells on, and it will just perpetuate the conflict.
    You're viewing things through a Europe prism. .
    I'm viewing things through the prism I think he, his cabinet and his supporters will.

    I am far from obsessed with Europe.
    Look at the absolute mess the Conservatives are making of the country. Starmer will have a lot to fix, and little of it will be anything to do with Europe. A few nationalisations (railways, energy, water) will take up a lot of legislative time and sparse money, and will also be *very* popular with his base. And due to Conservative incompetence, large parts of the electorate.

    Besides, our country's relationship with the EU will not be fixed overnight. He'll need at least a term to prepare the ground before we're back in.

    Did you support Boris back in 2019 over May?
    I supported Hunt.
    Then there is hope for you. :)

    My dislike of Brexiteers is becoming very strong. I'm not a fan of the EU (see a previous comment), but the monomania the likes of the ERG show towards it has destroyed their party.

    If given a forced choice between the country being run between the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and the ERG mob, I'd pick Brussels. And I'm slightly amazed to find myself writing that.
    TBF, it would be an easier choice if Brussels didn't keep picking total wrong 'uns like Juncker and von der Leyen to run things.
    Not the strongest of grounds for the UK to mount a critique of the EU!
    I'd say that by comparison UK politicians have quite clean hands.

    Our political scandals are usually over things that would be trifles elsewhere, or not even noticed.

    How many former UK PMs have received jail sentences for corruption in the last half century?
    How many should have, but the Establishment protected them?
  • MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Someone's messed about with that image of Johnson, surely.
    Be annoying to have him snoring away next to you in cattle class and overspilling the arm rest!
    I thought he'd been on a diet and had lost a few stones recently!
    Looking muscular again?
    Data is irrelevant. The point is to demonise.
    Demons are generally portrayed as slim and muscular if anything, rather than obese. Whats the verb for portraying as Jabba the Hut?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    Elizabeth II
    I think I disagree.

    She was an expert civil servant/advisor but was pretty bad at the politics. Many unforced errors, a tendency to misread the public mood (probably due to isolation/insulation) and a sense that every visible decision was forced on her.
    Truss made more mistakes in 40days than HM made in 70 years!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,820
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Both barrels from Matt Goodwin this morning:


    I have simply never seen numbers like this in my lifetime. Were they replicated at a general election it would be an extinction-level event, worse even than the total humiliation under John Major. An entire generation of Tories would be wiped out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/conservatives-may-choose-last-ever-prime-minister/

    He says that like this is a bad thing. But the Tory party has accumulated an unsustainable number of nutters and twats in safe seats who have become ungovernable and incapable of providing a base for a sensible government. Take Peter Bone (please) as an example. He currently has a majority of 18.5k in Wellingborough. It is going to take a near extinction event for him to be thrown out of the Commons.

    The Conservatives really need to start again but who, other than nutters, wants to go into politics these days?
    His seat was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
    I know but it's pretty solidly Tory now and will need an earthquake to switch back. SKS is no Blair, he needs a lot of help which the Tory party is currently giving him to an almost embarrassing extent.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris is on 50-60 and theres something like 140-160 who haven't expressed a preference?

    The BBC has him on 45, with about 45% of the Tory MPs declared.

    It seems far from clear he can get to 100.
    And kle4's figure of 50-60 with 140-160 undeclared would translate to only 50-60 supporting with 55-61% declared. Not clearly on course for 100, even if all the rest declare rather than watching to see how it goes.
    If Johnson gets to say, 90 nominations, and only Sunak makes the threshold, there's going to be some very disgruntled members.
    And a substantial internal opposition in Parliament.*

    *Of course. There'll be that anyways.
    But are they really going to be that disgruntled, if they can see that Sunak has twice as much support among MPs as Johnson?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,392
    Jonathan said:

    Saturday morning diversion:

    I doubt anyone will challenge Truss as the worst PM of all time but who was the greatest politician never to become PM?

    Hugh Gaitskell? Rab Butler? Dennis Healey?

    In recent years…

    Robin Cook
    John Smith
    Ken Clarke
    William Hague

    Would have been interesting to see in number 10. Maybe not post war greats, but all a million miles better than recent incumbents.

    That is an excellent list of "people I would have liked to see have a go at it"

    I think William Hague might have been a better PM than LotO. Ken Clarke may have been a promotion too far.

    John Smith is the interesting one. It would either have immeasurably enhanced, or somewhat trashed his reputation - but either way, it would have set a very different tone into the new millennium than the Blair administration.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,453
    Mr Dancer, the "Take Back Control" fallacy does not hold. Even if we were still in the EU, Truss would still have been ejected and the Tories would still be wiped out at the next election
This discussion has been closed.