@TheScreamingEagles wonder whether you've got an estimate of ineligible members, I think it's going to be a huge number actually. Just messaged some other people and they also think it could swing the result to Rishi.
What make 'em ineligible. Failure to cough up dues? Neglecting to tip cap to local squire?
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
Remind me about how the Russians declined to invade Ukraine.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
The biggest problem BigG is not the electability of the Conservative Party in 2025 (in my opinion Sunak calms the nation and saves the party) but if Johnson wins chaos ensues.
Nonetheless he is a lucky General so perhaps a Johnson/ Ukraine victory over Putin will help out or China invading Taiwan leads him into a Third World War, which allows him to lead a unity War Cabinet for years, even decades. God help us!
We used to call him an unflushable t*rd prior to the Chris Pincher event. Just look inside the bowl again.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Thanks. You've expressed something there that some of us on the left suspect but daren't say - that there's a bit of residual racism in the Tory Party that could harm Sunak's chances - because we'd be shouted down with "no there isn't" and "what about Corbyn?". Much better coming from you.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
The whole online vote in a few days thing sounds technically possible, but asking for trouble.
Best of all will be if it becomes unnecessary, which is clearly the plan. Though that may need Boris Johnson's ego to be locked away in a safe, which sounds like a good idea but awfully difficult.
(If the final MP round were 240-120, the loser would have to back out, wouldn't they? But what about 200-160? 190-170?)
I cannot see Johnson backing out - even if he gets 105 to 250 for Sunak!
@TheScreamingEagles wonder whether you've got an estimate of ineligible members, I think it's going to be a huge number actually. Just messaged some other people and they also think it could swing the result to Rishi.
What make 'em ineligible. Failure to cough up dues? Neglecting to tip cap to local squire?
No email address associated to the account and eligibility has been locked in aiui.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
It would very foolish for whoever wins to remove Hunt at this most critical of times
Johnson and Hunt doesn't seem a pair that could work. I suspect Sunak would be OK with it, and Mardaunt has already said she would.
Yes, it doesn't do for the PM and chancellor to not see eye-to-eye. Not removing the chancellor in that circumstance would also be very foolish. A Zugzwang is possible here.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
It would very foolish for whoever wins to remove Hunt at this most critical of times
Johnson and Hunt doesn't seem a pair that could work. I suspect Sunak would be OK with it, and Mardaunt has already said she would.
The key split in the Conservatives right now isn't centrist vs. right, let alone anything to do with Europe. It's blusterers vs. realists. And Sunak, imperfect as he is (see his approach to Covid datawranglers), is prepared to acknowledge reality.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Thanks. You've expressed something there that some us on the left suspect but daren't say - that there's a bit of residual racism in the Tory Party - because we'd be shouted down with "no there isn't" and "what about Corbyn?". Much better coming from you.
I think there's an element of racism among those older members. It's basically an exercise of waiting for them to die off and those racist attitudes to die with them over the next decade.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
Remind me about how the Russians declined to invade Ukraine.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
The biggest problem BigG is not the electability of the Conservative Party in 2025 (in my opinion Sunak calms the nation and saves the party) but if Johnson wins chaos ensues.
Nonetheless he is a lucky General so perhaps a Johnson/ Ukraine victory over Putin will help out or China invading Taiwan leads him into a Third World War, which allows him to lead a unity War Cabinet for years, even decades. God help us!
We used to call him an unflushable t*rd prior to the Chris Pincher event. Just look inside the bowl again.
I simply cannot accept that Johnson is the answer and hope and pray the mps and members keep him away from PM
Could a legal challenge emerge from party members who have no online facilities? Perhaps local associations can come up with some arrangements for such people - making party offices available etc or encouraging other members to help out with the online voting process.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Thanks. You've expressed something there that some us on the left suspect but daren't say - that there's a bit of residual racism in the Tory Party - because we'd be shouted down with "no there isn't" and "what about Corbyn?". Much better coming from you.
I think there's an element of racism among those older members. It's basically an exercise of waiting for them to die off and those racist attitudes to die with them over the next decade.
To be replaced by a modern new Conservative brand of xenophobia, led by Suella Braverman, where foreigners are hated not for the colour of their skin but just for being foreign.
One of my favourite quotes from Boris is “My friends as I have discovered myself there are no disasters, only opportunities. And indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters”.
I find the fact any significant part of the Tory party is willing to sign up for that a tad troubling.
@TheScreamingEagles wonder whether you've got an estimate of ineligible members, I think it's going to be a huge number actually. Just messaged some other people and they also think it could swing the result to Rishi.
What make 'em ineligible. Failure to cough up dues? Neglecting to tip cap to local squire?
No email address associated to the account and eligibility has been locked in aiui.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
I would fear Sunak more. Forget the polls. Sunak is more likely to be able to unite the parliamentary party, have a functioning administration with a competent cabinet and avoid disgrace with the standards committee.
@TheScreamingEagles wonder whether you've got an estimate of ineligible members, I think it's going to be a huge number actually. Just messaged some other people and they also think it could swing the result to Rishi.
What make 'em ineligible. Failure to cough up dues? Neglecting to tip cap to local squire?
No email address associated to the account and eligibility has been locked in aiui.
How does that constitute a vote of members then?
Because The 22 is judge, jury and court of appeal?
Could a legal challenge emerge from party members who have no online facilities? Perhaps local associations can come up with some arrangements for such people - making party offices available etc or encouraging other members to help out with the online voting process.
Should be simple enough. Voting could be done on a trust system.
I do wonder whether Rishi winning in a tight online only vote will see Boris have his own Trump moment claiming that the vote was fixed against him.
Well. He would have a point, wouldn't he? The Tory Party has specifically made it illegal for Trade Unions to vote in this way, for precisely these reasons.
One of my favourite quotes from Boris is “My friends as I have discovered myself there are no disasters, only opportunities. And indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters”.
I find the fact any significant part of the Tory party is willing to sign up for that a tad troubling.
Seems to be borrowing from Churchill:
'Success is going from one disaster to another without any loss of enthusiasm.'
One of my favourite quotes from Boris is “My friends as I have discovered myself there are no disasters, only opportunities. And indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters”.
I find the fact any significant part of the Tory party is willing to sign up for that a tad troubling.
Spot on. This is a perfect opportunity for a fresh disaster.
The former Tory leader (Boris.....Johnson) told trade minister Sir James Duddridge “we are going to do this”, despite standing down just six weeks ago after being ousted by his own cabinet following a series of scandals.
Sir James said Mr Johnson will land back in the UK on Saturday. The Tory MP said: “I’ve been in contact with the boss via WhatsApp. He’s going to fly back. He said, ‘I’m flying back, Dudders. We are going to do this. I’m up for it’.”
What proportion of Tory members have email addresses and are comfortable using tech? Probably a very high proportion but I wonder, is there a chance that making it online-only could skew the voter base, i.e. elderly members might be less likely to vote than they would have been if pencil and paper had been an option?
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
It would very foolish for whoever wins to remove Hunt at this most critical of times
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Surely Ambassador to Ukraine is Bozo's destiny?
Nah he wouldn’t like the paperwork of being a diplomat.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Er, the US hasn't had any F-14s since 2006. You could have asked the Iranians very nicely, though.
The way things are going for the Russian air force, I think it is highly likely that Iranian F-14s are the next thing to be thrown into the fight.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
The whole online vote in a few days thing sounds technically possible, but asking for trouble.
Best of all will be if it becomes unnecessary, which is clearly the plan. Though that may need Boris Johnson's ego to be locked away in a safe, which sounds like a good idea but awfully difficult.
(If the final MP round were 240-120, the loser would have to back out, wouldn't they? But what about 200-160? 190-170?)
MPs votes should have been weighted as to half the vote, so if 240:120 the members would have to vote for Boris by more than 2:1.
That would have consulted the members without it being a crap-shoot with the bat-shit crazy....
What proportion of Tory members have email addresses and are comfortable using tech? Probably a very high proportion but I wonder, is there a chance that making it online-only could skew the voter base, i.e. elderly members might be less likely to vote than they would have been if pencil and paper had been an option?
It's OK, they can give me their votes - and I will vote the way they wish.
I do wonder whether Rishi winning in a tight online only vote will see Boris have his own Trump moment claiming that the vote was fixed against him.
Well. He would have a point, wouldn't he? The Tory Party has specifically made it illegal for Trade Unions to vote in this way, for precisely these reasons.
I'm sure Vlad will also be trying to hack in.
Although probably not for Johnson given he is the toast of all Kyiv.
Could a legal challenge emerge from party members who have no online facilities? Perhaps local associations can come up with some arrangements for such people - making party offices available etc or encouraging other members to help out with the online voting process.
As a rule, the courts steer clear of interfering with membership clubs and their rules. Suspect the limit would be suing for your money back via small claims court (not that there would for £25).
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
He's not likely to win his seat at the next election.
What proportion of Tory members have email addresses and are comfortable using tech? Probably a very high proportion but I wonder, is there a chance that making it online-only could skew the voter base, i.e. elderly members might be less likely to vote than they would have been if pencil and paper had been an option?
Because the one thing that could make this even more of a clusterfuck is a Trump-style “stolen election” narrative…
NEW: On Boris Johnson Conservative MP @AaronBell4NUL tells me “I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583503751411027968
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
He's not likely to win his seat at the next election.
On a naive extrapolation from that, in order to reach 100 Johnson will need around 90% or more of MPs to nominate.
Boris voters are not exactly backwards at coming forwards. Of those undeclared, I suspect there are very few reluctant "Oh, alright then...." backers left.
Far more Mordaunt backers wondering if they can stick with their gal or have to go to Rishi.
Tory MPs should really, really think back to Labour MPs in 2015 putting Corbyn on the ballot so that Labour members could have their say. It was a disaster for Labour. If Tory MPs do the same here and give Boris enough pity votes to get him on the ballot paper they will regret it.
They have a duty to the nation and the economy to make Rishi PM on Monday afternoon and not let Boris or Penny get to 100 or more votes.
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Thanks. You've expressed something there that some us on the left suspect but daren't say - that there's a bit of residual racism in the Tory Party - because we'd be shouted down with "no there isn't" and "what about Corbyn?". Much better coming from you.
I think there's an element of racism among those older members. It's basically an exercise of waiting for them to die off and those racist attitudes to die with them over the next decade.
To be replaced by a modern new Conservative brand of xenophobia, led by Suella Braverman, where foreigners are hated not for the colour of their skin but just for being foreign.
It is interesting part of the American experience, that one wave of immigrants, is often comprised of grandmothers and grandfathers of a wave of nativists.
Descendants of immigrants are famously proud of the achievements, experiences, sacrifices of their ancestors. At same time, many readily assume, that today's newcomers are NOT as worthy, deserving, etc., etc. of respect let alone entry into OUR country as our kinfolk.
Reckon that many would have QUITE the shock IF only they could take a time machine, and witness their own great-whatever-grandparents coming off the boat at Ellis Island or Castle Garden.
One major sign of assimilation. And think, perhaps, that Braverman, Patel and similar UK non-White politicos are personifying and representing something similar?
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
He's not likely to win his seat at the next election.
Detail.
He wont be in Uxbridge in 2024.
There are rumours he has been sniffing round the Reigate seat, where Blunt is standing down
NEW: On Boris Johnson Conservative MP @AaronBell4NUL tells me “I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583503751411027968
I hope someone is pointing it out to the whole Parliamentary Party.
(My system is currently playing Mama Don't by JJ Cale. What a cracking track!)
NEW: On Boris Johnson Conservative MP @AaronBell4NUL tells me “I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583503751411027968
Weasel words from Bell/Price.
Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
He's not likely to win his seat at the next election.
Detail.
He wont be in Uxbridge in 2024.
There are rumours he has been sniffing round the Reigate seat, where Blunt is standing down
However when you do comment below, can you also state 1) which way you voted in 2019 and 2) whether you are in my constituency?
Thank you. #doncasterisgreat
Bozza is probably his only hope of keeping Don Valley (funnily enough the constituency I grew up in, though I've never cast a vote there - I'd moved away by the time I was eligible to vote in my first GE; his office is a few doors down from the house I grew up in).
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
Remind me about how the Russians declined to invade Ukraine.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
The biggest problem BigG is not the electability of the Conservative Party in 2025 (in my opinion Sunak calms the nation and saves the party) but if Johnson wins chaos ensues.
Nonetheless he is a lucky General so perhaps a Johnson/ Ukraine victory over Putin will help out or China invading Taiwan leads him into a Third World War, which allows him to lead a unity War Cabinet for years, even decades. God help us!
We used to call him an unflushable t*rd prior to the Chris Pincher event. Just look inside the bowl again.
I simply cannot accept that Johnson is the answer and hope and pray the mps and members keep him away from PM
It really does make one feel quite sick thinking of the damage Johnson could inflict over 2, 7 or 12 years.
Sunak really needs to be Quorn commentator pig of this contest, mellifluously looking into the Tory parties members' eyes and going "Forget about the alternative, Patricia"
I do wonder whether Rishi winning in a tight online only vote will see Boris have his own Trump moment claiming that the vote was fixed against him.
Well. He would have a point, wouldn't he? The Tory Party has specifically made it illegal for Trade Unions to vote in this way, for precisely these reasons.
Well, it's more that they want to make it more awkward for them to win a strike ballot. Less down to irregularities, more down to perceiving it as too easy to get a 'Yes' when you can drop everyone considering it an email and they can do so in two seconds.
Have now been working (in between posting!) for long enough, am heading off to take a nap AND watch "Forge of Fire" which is great US "reality" TV show featuring winner-take-all contests of blacksmiths.
Judged by expert panel of iron-mongers and martial-artists on the performance of the knives, swords, spears, cleavers, lances, axes and other implements of destruction they are tasked with forging and fashioning under the clock.
Do NOT try this at home without expert training and adult supervision!
Buzz words & phrases: quenching, welding, hammering, "you're blade will kill!"
Tory MPs should really, really think back to Labour MPs in 2015 putting Corbyn on the ballot so that Labour members could have their say. It was a disaster for Labour. If Tory MPs do the same here and give Boris enough pity votes to get him on the ballot paper they will regret it.
They have a duty to the nation and the economy to make Rishi PM on Monday afternoon and not let Boris or Penny get to 100 or more votes.
I was talking about "the window" the other day. For a couple of decades it was safe to put the Corbynite on the Labour ballots for e.g. NEC, leader, etc as a virtue signal. But the leadership failed to notice what had happened after the Miliband rule changes.
The Tories are in much the same position now, but I don't think there is anyone with the clarity to see through the fractures to a solution.
NEW: On Boris Johnson Conservative MP @AaronBell4NUL tells me “I don’t see how it’s feasible for him to bring the stability we need when he’s still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for misleading Parliament…I hope someone is pointing that out to him, frankly.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583503751411027968
I hope someone is pointing it out to the whole Parliamentary Party.
(My system is currently playing Mama Don't by JJ Cale. What a cracking track!)
I do wonder whether Rishi winning in a tight online only vote will see Boris have his own Trump moment claiming that the vote was fixed against him.
Well. He would have a point, wouldn't he? The Tory Party has specifically made it illegal for Trade Unions to vote in this way, for precisely these reasons.
Well, it's more that they want to make it more awkward for them to win a strike ballot. Less down to irregularities, more down to perceiving it as too easy to get a 'Yes' when you can drop everyone considering it an email and they can do so in two seconds.
However when you do comment below, can you also state 1) which way you voted in 2019 and 2) whether you are in my constituency?
Thank you. #doncasterisgreat
Bozza is probably his only hope of keeping Don Valley (funnily enough the constituency I grew up in, though I've never cast a vote there - I'd moved away by the time I was eligible to vote in my first GE; his office is a few doors down from the house I grew up in).
If you've got a spare million or two the castle is currently up for sale...
I doubt most would recognise that area as looking like their image of "Doncaster".
Whilst I agree that the constituency is not obviously Tory (particularly the mining villages), like parts of the East Midlands the demographics have been changing and there is an awful lot of new build housing. Depending on what happens with the airport I don't think it will ever go back to being rock solid red wall.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
He's not likely to win his seat at the next election.
Detail.
He wont be in Uxbridge in 2024.
If he's not leader I don't think he gets to pick his seat.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Er, the US hasn't had any F-14s since 2006. You could have asked the Iranians very nicely, though.
The way things are going for the Russian air force, I think it is highly likely that Iranian F-14s are the next thing to be thrown into the fight.
Comments
He's home and almost hosed The biggest problem BigG is not the electability of the Conservative Party in 2025 (in my opinion Sunak calms the nation and saves the party) but if Johnson wins chaos ensues.
Nonetheless he is a lucky General so perhaps a Johnson/ Ukraine victory over Putin will help out or China invading Taiwan leads him into a Third World War, which allows him to lead a unity War Cabinet for years, even decades. God help us!
We used to call him an unflushable t*rd prior to the Chris Pincher event. Just look inside the bowl again.
With respect, he doesn’t suit the format.
He’s great, obviously, but give him his own 15 or 30 minute analysis slot, please, BBC.
Keep any questions for active politicians / grandees / radical thinkers etc, who can opine on a broad range of political topics.
I find the fact any significant part of the Tory party is willing to sign up for that a tad troubling.
He would have a point, wouldn't he?
The Tory Party has specifically made it illegal for Trade Unions to vote in this way, for precisely these reasons.
'Success is going from one disaster to another without any loss of enthusiasm.'
Rishi Sunak on 88 MPs
Boris Johnson on 51 MPs
Penny Mordaunt on 22 MPs
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/who-s-backing-whom-boris-leads-the-way
The former Tory leader (Boris.....Johnson) told trade minister Sir James Duddridge “we are going to do this”, despite standing down just six weeks ago after being ousted by his own cabinet following a series of scandals.
Sir James said Mr Johnson will land back in the UK on Saturday. The Tory MP said: “I’ve been in contact with the boss via WhatsApp. He’s going to fly back. He said, ‘I’m flying back, Dudders. We are going to do this. I’m up for it’.”
Make him the UK’s Ukrainian Tsar instead
That would have consulted the members without it being a crap-shoot with the bat-shit crazy....
@NickFletcherMP
·
3h
BORIS JOHNSON
My inbox has been full of emails from my constituents urging me to persuade @BorisJohnson to replace our outgoing Prime Minister.
I am genuinely interested to know what you think. 🧵1/2
#Doncasterisgreat #2Down3ToGo https://pic.twitter.com/NkJzlnoGOV
Replying to @NickFletcherMP and @BorisJohnson
Could you use the comments below?
However when you do comment below, can you also state 1) which way you voted in 2019 and 2) whether you are in my constituency?
Thank you. #doncasterisgreat
Hur hur hur.....
Although probably not for Johnson given he is the toast of all Kyiv.
Fascinating from Charles Moore
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
Which means a lot of Did Note Vote. In the current circumstances, that is a terrible dereliction of duty.
Bringing back former PM ’worst idea I have heard in 46 years’ (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-rishi-sunak-penny-mordaunt-tory-leadership-general-election-follow-live-rvr79nm20
He wont be in Uxbridge in 2024.
Far more Mordaunt backers wondering if they can stick with their gal or have to go to Rishi.
They have a duty to the nation and the economy to make Rishi PM on Monday afternoon and not let Boris or Penny get to 100 or more votes.
Descendants of immigrants are famously proud of the achievements, experiences, sacrifices of their ancestors. At same time, many readily assume, that today's newcomers are NOT as worthy, deserving, etc., etc. of respect let alone entry into OUR country as our kinfolk.
Reckon that many would have QUITE the shock IF only they could take a time machine, and witness their own great-whatever-grandparents coming off the boat at Ellis Island or Castle Garden.
One major sign of assimilation. And think, perhaps, that Braverman, Patel and similar UK non-White politicos are personifying and representing something similar?
The Tory party is institutionally insane.
(My system is currently playing Mama Don't by JJ Cale. What a cracking track!)
Weasel words from Bell/Price.
Should just have said: “Piss off Boris, you fucking has-been helmet”
Just no!
"We will have a new prime minister within a week. Boris Johnson leads the way. Read the full list of who’s backing whom below.
Rishi Sunak (88)...
Boris Johnson (50)..."
Boris Johnson 'Winning here!'
NEW THREAD
Judged by expert panel of iron-mongers and martial-artists on the performance of the knives, swords, spears, cleavers, lances, axes and other implements of destruction they are tasked with forging and fashioning under the clock.
Do NOT try this at home without expert training and adult supervision!
Buzz words & phrases: quenching, welding, hammering, "you're blade will kill!"
The Tories are in much the same position now, but I don't think there is anyone with the clarity to see through the fractures to a solution.
So why is it OK for the Tory Party?
I doubt most would recognise that area as looking like their image of "Doncaster".
Whilst I agree that the constituency is not obviously Tory (particularly the mining villages), like parts of the East Midlands the demographics have been changing and there is an awful lot of new build housing. Depending on what happens with the airport I don't think it will ever go back to being rock solid red wall.