“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Er, the US hasn't had any F-14s since 2006. You could have asked the Iranians very nicely, though.
According to Paul Staines, Johnson has a strong lead among "whips, party board members, vice chairs and 1922 chairmen who have to remain publicly neutral though have a vote":
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Er, the US hasn't had any F-14s since 2006. You could have asked the Iranians very nicely, though.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Having all that kit is still no guarantee you won't get your arse kicked if you go walkabout with it, eh Vlad?
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Lol yes. But he might well hold in Islington on his own personal vote. If he can find a mate to run against twat features Thornberry in the other Islington seat that would be nice
He won’t shift from his own seat - he genuinely does work hard there and is very well known.
According to Paul Staines, Johnson has a strong lead among "whips, party board members, vice chairs and 1922 chairmen who have to remain publicly neutral though have a vote":
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
F14 is decades retired in US service. But kind of get your point…..
What you needed was Zelenskyy dressed up in a uniform copied from the Sgt Pepper album, reviewing a parade of his Enormous Weapons. Preferably Nooklear. This is the kind of thing the Putins of this world understand.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
This has been brewing for many years. Many on the 'left' see Corbyn and Pidcock as the dream ticket for a new left wing party. It could lead to an exit of far left activists from the Labour party. Hard to see this doing much damage to the overall electability of the labour party. It is also brilliant how they choose the moment that labour is highest in the polls, to do this.
There are enough Corbyn fan boys left that a hived off new party might attract high single figures support id think. Theyd need backing though, a union or two. They get twitter momentum from the Owen Jones set
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
Chancellor is serious business, you have to balance books and deal with competing claims every day. FS is more like being the Queen than serious politics, esp the way Liz did it.
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
Truss supporters have the whips, party chair jobs etc so since they're transferring to Boris more readily than anyone else it's not a surprise he's ahead on those that have to be seen to be neutral.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
He’s just a bit bitter about the world after Corbyn. Being a bit of a wally winding old comrades up makes him feel better. Hopefully he’ll get over it one day.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
According to Paul Staines, Johnson has a strong lead among "whips, party board members, vice chairs and 1922 chairmen who have to remain publicly neutral though have a vote":
Johnson 17 Sunak 4 Mordaunt 3
Should we actually believe this?
Would you generally trust Paul Staines.
He is a right of centre commentator, so that may rile some, but I don’t think he is a habitual liar.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Lol yes. But he might well hold in Islington on his own personal vote. If he can find a mate to run against twat features Thornberry in the other Islington seat that would be nice
He won’t shift from his own seat - he genuinely does work hard there and is very well known.
Yes, islington North, as i said. And find someone to get rid of the dreadful snob Thornberry in South and Finsbury
Anne-Marie Trevelyan @annietrev I have worked closely with @BorisJohnson for many years. He can continue to deliver for the country and already has a mandate. It’s time to #bringbackboris
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
There aren't wealthy towns, there are towns with a comparatively high wealthy person count, but still a lorra poor people. Compare, utterly random example, the Isle of Wight, home to a large number of comfortably-off-to-super-rich arseholes, and also the poorest poor population outside Cornwall in the entire country. Perhaps Sunak's point was the poor in "wealthy towns" are discriminated against by thoughtless stereotyping?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
How you can move from Corbyn to Johnson is beyond me . We get it , you don’t like Starmer but seriously your support for Johnson trashes any arguments you have .
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Lol yes. But he might well hold in Islington on his own personal vote. If he can find a mate to run against twat features Thornberry in the other Islington seat that would be nice
He won’t shift from his own seat - he genuinely does work hard there and is very well known.
Yes, islington North, as i said. And find someone to get rid of the dreadful snob Thornberry in South and Finsbury
The LibDems came very close some elections back, but since the coalition, sadly not.
Truss supporters have the whips, party chair jobs etc so since they're transferring to Boris more readily than anyone else it's not a surprise he's ahead on those that have to be seen to be neutral.
And what an outstanding job they did for Liz Truss.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Lol yes. But he might well hold in Islington on his own personal vote. If he can find a mate to run against twat features Thornberry in the other Islington seat that would be nice
He won’t shift from his own seat - he genuinely does work hard there and is very well known.
Yes, islington North, as i said. And find someone to get rid of the dreadful snob Thornberry in South and Finsbury
The LibDems came very close some elections back, but since the coalition, sadly not.
I wonder if Aspire might feature in parts of London next time out
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
you are electorally weightless, mate. I am voting Labour for the first time in 61 years, and there are enough like me to render you irrelevant.
When is anyone ever going to hold Graham Brady Old Lady to account - he’s handled god knows how many leadership elections disastrously now
This guy has always been a fuckwit. Became an MP because of his mother and I’m sure was on the shortlist of “stupidest” MPs at one point. He hasn’t got any smarter (although has probably moved up as the gene pool has deteriorated)
He's def losing his seat next time I reckon. Even if Cons can get back to low 30s.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
you are electorally weightless, mate. I am voting Labour for the first time in 61 years, and there are enough like me to render you irrelevant.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Having all that kit is still no guarantee you won't get your arse kicked if you go walkabout with it, eh Vlad?
But it makes people think before starting.
Bit like being a Hells Angel (or similar). When I was young, used to drink at the Gloucester Arms in Oxford. Very quiet pub. Apart from the heavy metal at decent volume. It was full of genuine hard cases (no me or my crowd). No one kicked off, because it would have been Armageddon if anyone did.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
Another febrile day in paradise it would seem. With the Conservatives sinking below 20% in some polls (14%, honestly, that cheered me up no end. I also saw a forecast which had the LDs at 57 seats and the Conservatives at 10. Sir Keir replaced by Sir Ed as LOTO - you have to laugh (or else you'd cry apparently)).
Can Johnson prevail? He clearly has a core of supporters who either think he's the authentic voice of 21st century populist conservatism or the only man able to stop them collecting a P45 from the electorate. The trouble is, he's not new, he's like the club manager who, having enjoyed huge success at a club, goes elsewhere and then comes back to discover the club has changed but the expectations haven't.
As someone who allegedly wanted to introduce "Thatcherism on steroids" before the 2019 GE, he would presumably have strongly supported the Truss/Kwarteng disaster.
There is the possibility (remote I admit) the previous experience has chastened him - no doubt, were he to prevail, he would be "Mr Unity" but he also does hubris so well and I suspect the guest suite will always be available for the Nemesis family when they come to call.
The other possibility (less remote) is none of it will make any difference - the electorate have passed judgement on the Conservatives and want them out and all that is at stake now is the degree of the electoral shellacking approaching.
PM4PM looks in a hopeless position of requiring 76 of 178
I still think there is a possibility Big Dog might not stand though
Looks best chance of get out of Jail for those heavily red on a BJ win
The thing is if Mordaunt pulls out and her supporters going overwhelmingly to Sunak - which I suppose isn't guaranteed - then even if he can get over the magic 100 figure, Sunak could have 250+. The members then going for Johnson having previously picked a dud in Truss and Rishi being more popular than him in the country starts to look ridiculous. That's before we get on to the standards committee......
I'm not sure the Tories can risk going for Boris if they care about their long term survival. But do they?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
IF your heading to higher elevation this weekend, worth checking to make sure you've got tire chains in the trunk of your rental.
Yes, I spent some time in Utah some years ago at about this time of year. Within less than an hour's drive from the heat around the Salt Lake, we were up in the snow.
Several years ago, very sad case in Oregon, around same time of year, young couple with a baby decided to drive from the Willamette Valley across the Coastal Range to the Coast. Didn't have a clue, were just following their car's GPS.
Ended up stuck in the snow (which they had NOT expected) up a forest service road.
No cell signal, no tire chains, light clothing, bag of potato chips or suchlike. Kept running the car engine at intervals to keep warm, but only had half a tank of gas (or less). After a day or so, with the gas tank approaching empty, the husband decided to try hiking out to get help.
Around that time, authorities heard from friend of these folks that they were missing and likely up in the mountains somewhere. Rescuers managed to find the car, with mother and baby cold, hungry but alive. Then they followed the tracks the father had made. And found him, frozen to death.
He should NOT have driven into the mountains with zero preparation. And should NOT have left the car. But if YOU'd been in his shoes, with zero idea if anyone was even trying to find you, with your wife and child shivering, with no food - what would YOU have done?
I could bore for England on the fact that there is no consistent, accurate geodata of rural US roads.
There is no single datasource that says “there is a road here and it has this type of surface maintained to that standard”. None. There is US Forest Service data for their roads, and most states have some sort of electronic inventory for their state roads, but nowhere draws it all together. And when you get down to county road level, all bets are off.
This causes several deaths a year. It is absolutely ludicrous. Richest country in the world and it can’t tell you whether a road is safe to drive on.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
That does presuppose that Tory MPs can confidently be assigned to the Subphylum Vertebrata by a competent taxonomist. At the moment, there is some doubt about the existence of a backbone; they're like those weird fossils which could be anything from protofishes to jumped-up sea squirts to molluscs.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Don't know about you guys, but even from other side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) am feeling like a limp dishrag, after yet another Week That Was.
And for me, just a fascinating distraction really, from MY political, etc. reality here in Land of the Free, and (as Leon would say) Home of the Fucked.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
When is anyone ever going to hold Graham Brady Old Lady to account - he’s handled god knows how many leadership elections disastrously now
This guy has always been a fuckwit. Became an MP because of his mother and I’m sure was on the shortlist of “stupidest” MPs at one point. He hasn’t got any smarter (although has probably moved up as the gene pool has deteriorated)
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
I am a centrist and not the slightest bit bothered if Johnson makes a comeback. I think Mordaunt would be the most difficult to deal with electorally. He was several points behind when he resigned, and I cannot see that things would be better now. Perhaps a 10% Lab lead, perhaps more.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Why don't you just fuck off and join the Tories?
He has. Socialists vote for left-wing parties. Tory voters vote Tory. Self explanatory.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
So vote Tory and wait for the revolution? Meanwhile nurse your pint each evening in a pub in Tooting.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
I find that unlikely but fair play if that's what transpires.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Why don't you just fuck off and join the Tories?
Like you did
Remember this is all your fault you Boris voting Centrist Tory Scum!!
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Woah! So lay Johnson as next PM…
But does BJ want a ministerial post involving hard work and lower pay than being the boss? Not so sure.
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
Sorry Olly, no idea on this outing.....
Thanks where's HYUFD when you need him!!
The reason I am interested is that someone, rightly IMO, said that MPs are going to come under sustained pressure from the Johnson fanatics in their constituency associations to support him.
If the vote is secret then I think Johnson's support is prone to being overstated. He is the only candidate where it would make sense for an MP to send one message to the members and vote differently.
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
It would be f***ing hilarious if the parliamentary Tory party ran its nomination process as if it were an election to membership at a gentlemen's club, but surely since it's a nomination procedure it won't be secret.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
I am a centrist and not the slightest bit bothered if Johnson makes a comeback. I think Mordaunt would be the most difficult to deal with electorally. He was several points behind when he resigned, and I cannot see that things would be better now. Perhaps a 10% Lab lead, perhaps more.
A return to No 10 by Boris Johnson just in time for Halloween (Boo! Joo!) would be equivalent of Richard Nixon, after resigning in 1974, being renominated then re-elected in 1976.
Note that RN's majority in popular and especially electoral votes in 1972, was WAY more than BJ's vaunted majority in 2019 by just about any measure.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Why don't you just fuck off and join the Tories?
Like you did
Remember this is all your fault you Boris voting Centrist Tory Scum!!
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
It would be f***ing hilarious if the parliamentary Tory party ran its nomination process as if it were an election to membership at a gentlemen's club, but surely since it's a nomination procedure it won't be secret.
I understood the nom process is secret apart from nominator and seconder.
The vote itself is always secret in Tory leadership elections
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Why don't you just fuck off and join the Tories?
He won't need to. Jezbollah is running as an independent. Laura Pillock has just quit and other foamers left a while ago.
There is the need for both a hard left party and an electoral system which can translate their 0.4% vote share into 0 seats proportionally.
I don’t believe all this bullshit that Tory MPs are being inundated with support for the clown . They can just make anything up to justify their support .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
Good piece at the end of Ch4 News. Tim Montgomerie reading out Boris Johnson's final approval ratings. All hugely negative culminating in 'trustworthy' -64!. "Is that really what the Tories want?" he asked.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
You see everything through the lens of the left v centrist split in Labour, don't you?
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Why would the massive ego of Boris accept Home Secretary or even Foreign "dodgy meetings with the KGB" Secretary again? When the degenerate scum and villainy that is Tory members will elect him PM again?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
You see everything through the lens of the left v centrist split in Labour, don't you?
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Not sure if any of my fellow PBers are au fait with the London Ringways saga, but interesting politically:
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Will Johnson, knowing he would probably win the members' ballot, back off if second to Sunak next Monday? I just can't see it if he is as determined to go back to No.10 as he was when he left in July and as he seems from all the accounts we're hearing.
Does he have a score to settle with Sunak whose resignation began the denouement of his administration?
To the victor, the spoils (of sorts) - if he prevails, will Johnson be "Mr Unity" and offer the defeated candidates and potential rivals a place in his second Cabinet or will he, pace Truss, appoint only his allies?
The problem is while I would expect any leader to improve the party's current poll ratings, getting back to near 30% is still a heavy defeat and the problem Johnson has is many people have made up their minds about him. Sunak may not be loved in the way Johnson is among acolytes but he's not hated to the same extent (I sense). The trouble is, a Sunak vs Starmer battle has only one winner with Sunak dragging the Government's record along like an anchor.
I cannot imagine, if the Conservatives are crushed at the next election (150 seats), any of the current leaders wanting to take the party through perhaps 10 years of opposition. Neither Johnson nor Sunak could bear it and it would be someone further down the pecking order who would inherit the wreckage.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
To think that Pidcock might well have been Labour leader if she'd held her seat.
Apparently she's joined the Conservatives, because they'll make practically anyone leader.
And not being an MP is unlikely to be an impediment following the next General Election
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
You see everything through the lens of the left v centrist split in Labour, don't you?
No SKS and the majority of the NEC do though
See Forde for more information
Keith is 39 points in the lead. It's over. Move on.
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
Sorry Olly, no idea on this outing.....
Thanks where's HYUFD when you need him!!
The reason I am interested is that someone, rightly IMO, said that MPs are going to come under sustained pressure from the Johnson fanatics in their constituency associations to support him.
If the vote is secret then I think his support might get overstated. He is the only candidate where it would make sense for an MP to send one message to the members and vote differently.
I agree on that - when it comes down to it, easier to lie to your association than live through PM Boris until the Committee of Privileges does for him in early November. That would surely have to lead to an immediate General Election - with the Tories fronted by his Deputy PM - Rees Mogg or Nadine perhaps.
In that situation, the dinosaurs stood a better chance of survival than the Tories.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Why would the massive ego of Boris accept Home Secretary or even Foreign "dodgy meetings with the KGB" Secretary again? When the degenerate scum and villainy that is Tory members will elect him PM again?
They may not and he is better off being Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government facing tough economic decisions of tax rises or spending cuts than a fag end PM who likely loses the next general election which would end his career
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Not sure if any of my fellow PBers are au fait with the London Ringways saga, but interesting politically:
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
It would be f***ing hilarious if the parliamentary Tory party ran its nomination process as if it were an election to membership at a gentlemen's club, but surely since it's a nomination procedure it won't be secret.
I asm talking about the ballot not the nominations
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
To think that Pidcock might well have been Labour leader if she'd held her seat.
Apparently she's joined the Conservatives, because they'll make practically anyone leader.
And not being an MP is unlikely to be an impediment following the next General Election
Will they negotiate a time share on a phone box with the LibDems for MP meetings?
Comments
Johnson 17
Sunak 4
Mordaunt 3
Should we actually believe this?
But I would ask again, do people expect that every Tory MP will nominate one of the three putative candidates? It seems a bit unlikely to me.
@BethRigby
Where do the candidates stand on public endorsements c7pm
Rishi Sunak 74
Boris Johnson 43
Penny Mordaunt 18
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583521886906220544
What you needed was Zelenskyy dressed up in a uniform copied from the Sgt Pepper album, reviewing a parade of his Enormous Weapons. Preferably Nooklear. This is the kind of thing the Putins of this world understand.
Johnson has the edge as he as far more jobs to offer out than the other two.
Truss supporters have the whips, party chair jobs etc so since they're transferring to Boris more readily than anyone else it's not a surprise he's ahead on those that have to be seen to be neutral.
Edit: typo
Kevin Rudd
Labour 28
Conservatives 26
Corbynites 12
Faragists 11
Lib Dems 10
Green 5
SNP 4
PC 1
Pick the bones out of that
Sponsored by BB and BB, Big Brother and Bob the Builder?
No wonder they are unnamed!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6661563/David-Davis-mixes-two-Tory-women-left-red-faced-boob-related-retort.html
If its true needs 33 of remaining 178
PM4PM looks in a hopeless position of requiring 76 of 178
I still think there is a possibility Big Dog might not stand though
Looks best chance of get out of Jail for those heavily red on a BJ win
I need HY to come and tell us he isn’t going to land it.
Bit like being a Hells Angel (or similar). When I was young, used to drink at the Gloucester Arms in Oxford. Very quiet pub. Apart from the heavy metal at decent volume. It was full of genuine hard cases (no me or my crowd). No one kicked off, because it would have been Armageddon if anyone did.
Another febrile day in paradise it would seem. With the Conservatives sinking below 20% in some polls (14%, honestly, that cheered me up no end. I also saw a forecast which had the LDs at 57 seats and the Conservatives at 10. Sir Keir replaced by Sir Ed as LOTO - you have to laugh (or else you'd cry apparently)).
Can Johnson prevail? He clearly has a core of supporters who either think he's the authentic voice of 21st century populist conservatism or the only man able to stop them collecting a P45 from the electorate. The trouble is, he's not new, he's like the club manager who, having enjoyed huge success at a club, goes elsewhere and then comes back to discover the club has changed but the expectations haven't.
As someone who allegedly wanted to introduce "Thatcherism on steroids" before the 2019 GE, he would presumably have strongly supported the Truss/Kwarteng disaster.
There is the possibility (remote I admit) the previous experience has chastened him - no doubt, were he to prevail, he would be "Mr Unity" but he also does hubris so well and I suspect the guest suite will always be available for the Nemesis family when they come to call.
The other possibility (less remote) is none of it will make any difference - the electorate have passed judgement on the Conservatives and want them out and all that is at stake now is the degree of the electoral shellacking approaching.
I'm not sure the Tories can risk going for Boris if they care about their long term survival. But do they?
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
There is no single datasource that says “there is a road here and it has this type of surface maintained to that standard”. None. There is US Forest Service data for their roads, and most states have some sort of electronic inventory for their state roads, but nowhere draws it all together. And when you get down to county road level, all bets are off.
This causes several deaths a year. It is absolutely ludicrous. Richest country in the world and it can’t tell you whether a road is safe to drive on.
Boris will be defeated by Sunak
Boris will win the membership final vote
The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
PPPPPPPP aka P8 = Peppa Pig Part-time Porcine Premier Providing Plenty Pork
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1583489067131367425?s=20&t=i8Scz1ftygDGOWZyOkQpaA
Wonder if there is anybody there that might leave something about Boris on a photocopier by mistake?
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/289/committee-of-privileges/membership/
And for me, just a fascinating distraction really, from MY political, etc. reality here in Land of the Free, and (as Leon would say) Home of the Fucked.
Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Remember this is all your fault you Boris voting Centrist Tory Scum!!
But does BJ want a ministerial post involving hard work and lower pay than being the boss? Not so sure.
The reason I am interested is that someone, rightly IMO, said that MPs are going to come under sustained pressure from the Johnson fanatics in their constituency associations to support him.
If the vote is secret then I think Johnson's support is prone to being overstated. He is the only candidate where it would make sense for an MP to send one message to the members and vote differently.
Note that RN's majority in popular and especially electoral votes in 1972, was WAY more than BJ's vaunted majority in 2019 by just about any measure.
The vote itself is always secret in Tory leadership elections
There is the need for both a hard left party and an electoral system which can translate their 0.4% vote share into 0 seats proportionally.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Elections about who you & others are gonna vote in the future.
Only important thing about past votes, is IF your future votes (including not voting) will differ, or not, from past behavior.
And in case you & other do something different, whose sheep is being fattened - and whose ox is getting gored.
Just ask Al Gore!
See Forde for more information
https://www.roads.org.uk/ringways
Does he have a score to settle with Sunak whose resignation began the denouement of his administration?
To the victor, the spoils (of sorts) - if he prevails, will Johnson be "Mr Unity" and offer the defeated candidates and potential rivals a place in his second Cabinet or will he, pace Truss, appoint only his allies?
The problem is while I would expect any leader to improve the party's current poll ratings, getting back to near 30% is still a heavy defeat and the problem Johnson has is many people have made up their minds about him. Sunak may not be loved in the way Johnson is among acolytes but he's not hated to the same extent (I sense). The trouble is, a Sunak vs Starmer battle has only one winner with Sunak dragging the Government's record along like an anchor.
I cannot imagine, if the Conservatives are crushed at the next election (150 seats), any of the current leaders wanting to take the party through perhaps 10 years of opposition. Neither Johnson nor Sunak could bear it and it would be someone further down the pecking order who would inherit the wreckage.
And not being an MP is unlikely to be an impediment following the next General Election
In that situation, the dinosaurs stood a better chance of survival than the Tories.