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Meanwhile, in the Treasury… – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,148
edited November 2022 in General
Meanwhile, in the Treasury… – politicalbetting.com

NEWUK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than mostChart is the two year gilt yield pic.twitter.com/I48CwbXFWQ

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,482
    Was that a first?

    Oh yes.

    Also my stint as guest editor starts now, buckle up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Second rate, like the clown
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Great piece Richard.

    Yeah, agreed :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Boris&Bust.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    edited October 2022
    Good summary Richard, thanks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,482

    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    According to the last thread, gilt yields have also risen in the US and Europe, faster than in the UK. So the Tweet that's featured above is misleading to say the least. Hopefully it wasn't Richard Nabavi's decision to use it to illustrate his point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,081
    I think not moving against Truss might ha ve been the best idea if fiscal probity was your mian concern.
    Hunt was clearly going to run a tight bookkeeping exercise till Starmer got in. Now that's all been thrown into doubt by the actions of those (Mainly Sunak supporters it must be said) who moved against her. ;)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    According to the last thread, gilt yields have also risen in the US and Europe, faster than in the UK. So the Tweet that's featured above is misleading to say the least. Hopefully it wasn't Richard Nabavi's decision to use it to illustrate his point.

    Yes it’s rather tiresome hearing Ed Conway misinform like this nearly every day.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Has Hunt spoken on the leadership contest yet?

    Would he serve under Johnson if asked?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Boris&Bust.
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    Surely you would make him FO and send him permanently to Ukraine, where the poor bastards still like him. There is precedent for previous leaders becoming foreign secretary.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 880
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    Didn't Tony Blair give HS to his political opponents, knowing that sooner or later there would be some scandal he could sack them for? The scandal-prone Boris would be an idiot to take that job.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    The type of Tories who vote for Boris Johnson could not be more different to what you describe. They are generally like the deranged fishmonger on Breakfast this morning. And quite frankly they all need a damn good slap with a medium sized haddock for being so stupid.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    Boris could never cope with that job.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    You know, I don’t necessarily disagree with this. If it would bring the party together all well and good. Would he settle for that? I’d have thought he’d want FS so he could do his mates with Zelensky stuff again

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,302
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    Does the Home Secretary get to exclusively enjoy a grace and favour country residence?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    Boris could never cope with that job.
    Too much like hard work
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,081
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Benpointer said:

    Has Hunt spoken on the leadership contest yet?

    Would he serve under Johnson if asked?

    Yes - this is key, as I said this morning.

    Even if we are to end up being ruled by the clown once again, Hunt would be wise to tie him into his financial strategy before the election rather than after.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,081
    Benpointer said:

    Has Hunt spoken on the leadership contest yet?

    Would he serve under Johnson if asked?

    He'll be stayin gneutral, surely.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    The type of Tories who vote for Boris Johnson could not be more different to what you describe. They are generally like the deranged fishmonger on Breakfast this morning. And quite frankly they all need a damn good slap with a medium sized haddock for being so stupid.
    If it's only deranged fishmongers we need to deal with that's good news.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    Jonathan said:

    Boris&Bust.

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    Surely you would make him FO and send him permanently to Ukraine, where the poor bastards still like him. There is precedent for previous leaders becoming foreign secretary.
    Yes, I think that's an offer he's likely to mull. HS he'd never accept.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Penny in to 6/1
    Boris 2/1
    Sunak 10/11
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    Has Hunt spoken on the leadership contest yet?

    Would he serve under Johnson if asked?

    He'll be stayin gneutral, surely.
    Why?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,705
    Chris said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    The type of Tories who vote for Boris Johnson could not be more different to what you describe. They are generally like the deranged fishmonger on Breakfast this morning. And quite frankly they all need a damn good slap with a medium sized haddock for being so stupid.
    If it's only deranged fishmongers we need to deal with that's good news.
    LOok what happened the last time we had fish industry folk in politics.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    Boris could never cope with that job.
    He couldn't cope with PM either but here we are.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,986
    Chris said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    The type of Tories who vote for Boris Johnson could not be more different to what you describe. They are generally like the deranged fishmonger on Breakfast this morning. And quite frankly they all need a damn good slap with a medium sized haddock for being so stupid.
    If it's only deranged fishmongers we need to deal with that's good news.
    There are a lot more of them than the chaps in mansions in Hertfordshire.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
    Home Sec is by a distance the worst job in cabinet. No thanks bruv.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
    Are you kidding? Sets him up for leadership after inevitable election loss, and Carrie gets to be around canapes and oak panelling again.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
    Any British citizens that are being held by hostile governments would have reason to be very nervous
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    Benpointer said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    Boris could never cope with that job.
    He couldn't cope with PM either but here we are.
    Possibly not, but it's an easier job than HS.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    edited October 2022
    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    "... in the shires in their big houses" They'll never be like the rest of us.

    I suspect they don't form a big proportion of the Tory membership either. It's retired middle managers in their 3-bed detacheds, on their index-linked pensions, mainly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?

    Johnson - PM
    Hunt - Chancellor
    Rishi - Foreign Secretary
    Mordaunt - Home Secretary
    Badenoch - Education
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?

    Johnson - PM
    Hunt - Chancellor
    Rishi - Foreign Secretary
    Mordaunt - Home Secretary
    Badenoch - Education
    Nadine Dorries? Rees-Mogg?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    The best outcome of all would be if the disgraced former PM does not make the 100. Better still if he only gets about 45. He is a man that has done so much damage that he cannot be humiliated enough IMO

    Liking it but not believing it, sadly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    edited October 2022
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
    Are you kidding? Sets him up for leadership after inevitable election loss, and Carrie gets to be around canapes and oak panelling again.
    Well, if it stops him being PM again it's a less than worst option in my book.

    Edit: and the Privileges Committee report can do for him in a month or so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,893
    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?

    Johnson - PM
    Hunt - Chancellor
    Rishi - Foreign Secretary
    Mordaunt - Home Secretary
    Badenoch - Education
    Nadine Dorries? Rees-Mogg?
    Ministry of Moonbats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,081
    Why is Mordaunt moving in ?

    She looks miles short of the noms to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,893
    Interesting snippet.

    DOD spox confirms @SecDef spoke with Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu by telephone for the first time since May
    https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1583449853862244353
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    I have two questions...

    1) Who I behind this Johnson campaign. It is organised, but who is doing it? Hard to do from the Caribbean.
    2) Why have Sunak and Mourdant said absolutely nothing. What's going with that?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,190
    Given that Johnson resigned sort of in disgrace (fairly or not) because he couldn't form a cabinet why on earth would the CP allow him to enter this contest?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Stocky said:

    My prediction for the membership vote:

    Sunak v Johnson: too close to call
    Johnson v Mordaunt: too close to call
    Sunak v Mordaunt: too close to call

    Glad to be of service.

    Do you see any value in the betting markets?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,332
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting snippet.

    DOD spox confirms @SecDef spoke with Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu by telephone for the first time since May
    https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1583449853862244353

    Got to be good news.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,190
    ping said:

    Stocky said:

    My prediction for the membership vote:

    Sunak v Johnson: too close to call
    Johnson v Mordaunt: too close to call
    Sunak v Mordaunt: too close to call

    Glad to be of service.

    Do you see any value in the betting markets?
    No not really. I have been going against you to be honest and laying Johnson a bit but that is not working out well so far.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Jonathan said:

    Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.

    Her home yes. If Sunak wins Truss is not getting anywhere a job. If Johnson wins he can just dispense with her too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,893
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Mordaunt moving in ?

    She looks miles short of the noms to me.

    She has publicly declared ?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting snippet.

    DOD spox confirms @SecDef spoke with Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu by telephone for the first time since May
    https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1583449853862244353

    That sounds positive.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    Benpointer said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    "... in the shires in their big houses" They'll never be like the rest of us.

    I suspect they don't form a big proportion of the Tory membership either. It's retired middle managers in their 3-bed detacheds, on their index-linked pensions, mainly.
    It was the index-linked pensions I was thinking about. But perhaps you think they are all retired civil servants, and immune to the kind of pension fund catastrophe that the Tories took us to the brink of a few weeks ago?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,801
    edited October 2022
    Jonathan said:

    I have two questions...

    1) Who I behind this Johnson campaign. It is organised, but who is doing it? Hard to do from the Caribbean.
    2) Why have Sunak and Mourdant said absolutely nothing. What's going with that?

    Penny Mordaunt MP has said she plans to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

    "I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE."

    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,983
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    Boris could never cope with that job.
    Perhaps that's the plan.

    Let Brer-Boris bury himself in the Briar Patch.

    My speculation is whether this could force JH to stand for Leader :smiley: .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?

    Johnson - PM
    Hunt - Chancellor
    Rishi - Foreign Secretary
    Mordaunt - Home Secretary
    Badenoch - Education
    Johnson - PM
    Mogg - Chancellor
    Wallace - Foreign Secretary
    Jenkyns - Home Secretary
    Dorries - Education
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    Chris said:

    Benpointer said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    "... in the shires in their big houses" They'll never be like the rest of us.

    I suspect they don't form a big proportion of the Tory membership either. It's retired middle managers in their 3-bed detacheds, on their index-linked pensions, mainly.
    It was the index-linked pensions I was thinking about. But perhaps you think they are all retired civil servants, and immune to the kind of pension fund catastrophe that the Tories took us to the brink of a few weeks ago?
    Well, the loss of pensions in payment would be an order of magnitude catastrophe beyond even my worst fears tbh.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?

    Johnson - PM
    Hunt - Chancellor
    Rishi - Foreign Secretary
    Mordaunt - Home Secretary
    Badenoch - Education
    Nadine Dorries? Rees-Mogg?
    A reformed "Office for Brexit Opportunities and Vanity Projects of The Disgraced Boris Johnson". Blow jobs under the No10 desk will part of the list of daily responsibilities with Jacob to provide the soggy biscuits
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Mordaunt moving in ?

    She looks miles short of the noms to me.

    She has publicly declared ?
    I think it's revelations about the status of the Boris investigation, no?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946
    moonshine said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    True that. But he's 'done' FS before (sort of). I'd have thought he'd be even less happy with that.
    Home Sec is by a distance the worst job in cabinet. No thanks bruv.

    "No, Bernard. Home Secretary? Don't be daft. Be responsible for all the muggings, jailbreaks and race riots? Thanks a lot."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,081
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Mordaunt moving in ?

    She looks miles short of the noms to me.

    She has publicly declared ?
    Blimey if I'd had known that'd move the markets in I'd have bought at 11 - still looks dead in the water to me though.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,302
    Stocky said:

    Given that Johnson resigned sort of in disgrace (fairly or not) because he couldn't form a cabinet why on earth would the CP allow him to enter this contest?

    There was no sort of about it, and it was absolutely fair.

    The Conservative Party presumably see him as chastened and cleansed.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.

    Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.

    What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Jonathan said:

    I have two questions...

    1) Who I behind this Johnson campaign. It is organised, but who is doing it? Hard to do from the Caribbean.
    2) Why have Sunak and Mourdant said absolutely nothing. What's going with that?

    Funny you should say that, Penny is Go!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,750
    AlistairM said:

    How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.

    Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.

    What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!

    People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    PM4PMAGAIN
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    AlistairM said:

    How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.

    Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.

    What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!

    As Ted Heath reportedly once said said, "I am not a doctor."
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    This is what I've been waiting for. Someone who wrote a letter of no confidence in Boris but is now supporting him.

    Step forward... Jonathan Gullis MP.

    Jonathan Gullis wants to bring Boris Johnson back. Here is his resignation statement from July.

    He stated that he could no longer support Johnson “in good conscience” and condemned Johnson for blaming others for “mistakes in his judgement”.
    https://twitter.com/willgeorgelloyd/status/1583437050564313089
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chris said:

    Benpointer said:

    Chris said:

    On topic, those Tories in the shires in their big houses - behind their armour-plated, entryphone-defended metal fences - had better be pretty sure they aren't going to run the risk of electing some complete idiot who will cause their comfortable pensions to evaporate in a moment and leave them no different from the rest of us.

    "... in the shires in their big houses" They'll never be like the rest of us.

    I suspect they don't form a big proportion of the Tory membership either. It's retired middle managers in their 3-bed detacheds, on their index-linked pensions, mainly.
    It was the index-linked pensions I was thinking about. But perhaps you think they are all retired civil servants, and immune to the kind of pension fund catastrophe that the Tories took us to the brink of a few weeks ago?
    Hate to break it to you, but the people in the really big houses are diversified as fuck and don't give too much of a toss about pensions.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,305
    Chris said:

    What I would say about Ben Wallace is that Tories can look as sensible as you like - they can even be almost completely bald and look like a retired colonel or something.

    But if you trust them for a fraction of a second, you are liable to be pitched headfirst into a maelstrom of utter insanity.

    Having seen Wallace's statement, it looked more like a pitch for money for defence from potential candidates (I'll back you if you promise X Billion etc).

    That may be a generous interpretation.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,163
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    Put that famously detail orientated individual into a tough and complex role. Let him manage immigration…

  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    In the past Hunt has not supported Johnson and said he would vote against him in the confidence vote. So if he wouldn't serve under Johnson doesn't that cause some major problems. Perhaps he should be letting everyone know where he stands on a Johnson premiership.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Gardenwalker said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is what I've been waiting for. Someone who wrote a letter of no confidence in Boris but is now supporting him.

    Step forward... Jonathan Gullis MP.

    Jonathan Gullis wants to bring Boris Johnson back. Here is his resignation statement from July.

    He stated that he could no longer support Johnson “in good conscience” and condemned Johnson for blaming others for “mistakes in his judgement”.
    https://twitter.com/willgeorgelloyd/status/1583437050564313089

    What a complete fuckwit.
    Some people seem to delight in destroying their own credibility. It is extraordinary
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,935
    Jonathan said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Jonathan said:

    This contest makes this unlikely, but in the old days Mordaunt would be perfectly positioned as the unity candidate.

    She doesn’t stand a chance today.

    Yes, the system is set up now to get polarising sides to get the worst person (from each other's perspective) put forward against each other.

    Instead of seeking a compromise as in the past.

    The system pre-Hague's changes was better. It shouldn't be either Sunak or Boris, but nobody else can get the 100 votes.
    Is there a clever play for Sunak to back Mourdaunt? He must know part of the party doesn’t buy him as leader. It might knock the wind out of Boris’ sails.
    Prior to Hague's changes I think someone sensible like Mordaunt would have got it as the compromise candidate but now ...

    He's so close he's not going to give up even if he loses and sees Boris back as a result. Which isn't healthy for the Party or the Country.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is Mordaunt moving in ?

    She looks miles short of the noms to me.

    I wonder if she suspects Boris won't stand, and it'll end up with just her and Sunak, so a better chance to get to 100.

    While she's maybe not got the same fans as Boris, she could benefit from his loyalists not wanting Sunak.

    Even if she doesn't then win, or go to a vote, she may have more leverage for a bigger job, and possibly higher recognition for a future bid.
  • GustavoFringsGustavoFrings Posts: 53
    AlistairM said:

    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193

    She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    AlistairM said:

    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193

    She is essential to this contest. If it's a Sunak-Johnson battle that only strengthens Johnson IMO.

    At the very least it starves BJ of potential votes. But Sunak might be wise to back her. I reckon he has starting strength, but not quite enough to win.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Gardenwalker said:

    If the Tories let Boris back in it shows a tolerance for corruption and a disregard for the rule of law.

    It’s that simple.

    If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.

    Whether you think that is better for Tory or indeed Labour prospects, or not.

    My feeling entirely. Support for Johnson is support for dishonest politics and law breaking. It is astonishing that anyone can believe that such an individual is appropriate to be our PM.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    edited October 2022
    Gardenwalker said:

    If the Tories let Boris back in it shows a tolerance for corruption and a disregard for the rule of law.

    It’s that simple.

    If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.

    Whether you think that is better for Tory or indeed Labour prospects, or not.

    Exactly.

    Which is why they will elect him.

    Because the modern Tory Party doesn’t care about our countries institutions, only their own electoral prospects.

    They are the GOP. The more people realise this the better.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,051
    Thanks for header, Richard. Yes, a good point you make. The fiscal crisis remains and it isn't being helped by this 'return of Johnson' nonsense. Which it is, I think. I strongly sense a bubble of hype which will shortly pop.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Jonathan said:

    Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.

    Agree. She needs to be sent to a rest home ASAP.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    GustavoFrings said:

    AlistairM said:

    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193

    She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
    In case Boris fails to make it.
    She can then be the anti-Rishi candidate (or unity if you prefer).
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    New: Boris Johnson has been personally calling Tory MPs from his holiday in a bid to secure their backing, @camillahmturner has been told.

    He promised one MP that there would be a "different culture" in Downing Street if he becomes PM again.
    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1583466052612026369
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Benpointer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.

    Her home yes. If Sunak wins Truss is not getting anywhere a job. If Johnson wins he can just dispense with her too.
    She is a completely busted flush. She might as well go on "I am a celebrity Get Me out of Here". Oh, hang on, she has already done that one
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    NEW: Some Rishi Sunak backers are floating a jaw-dropper… offer Boris the role of Home Secretary.

    Two Tory MPs who have endorsed Sunak tell @Telegraph they support the idea. Their argument: Would help win the race + unite the party.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583464781603737601

    It's not the worst idea from the nation's POV given where we are but Johnson would not accept of course.
    HS is the toughest big role in Gov't. FS much better gig for Johnson to be offered, the easiest.
    Disagree. It’s easy to coast, it’s hard to do well. It doesn’t matter… until it does.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,051
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    The best outcome of all would be if the disgraced former PM does not make the 100. Better still if he only gets about 45. He is a man that has done so much damage that he cannot be humiliated enough IMO

    Good chance of failing to reach the 100 imo.
  • GustavoFringsGustavoFrings Posts: 53
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    AlistairM said:

    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193

    If MPs want to stop Boris, and they should, they need to abandon Sunak and back Mordaunt to do so.

    Sunak can't unite the party and did the disastrous tax rise with Boris, Mordaunt could be a clean break. #PM4PM
    We could really do with a YouGov members poll.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,483
    Gardenwalker said:

    If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.

    This argument is often made by people who think the institutions that need protecting are those introduced by Blair or Cameron, and are happy to trash anything older than that.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    AlistairM said:

    This is what I've been waiting for. Someone who wrote a letter of no confidence in Boris but is now supporting him.

    Step forward... Jonathan Gullis MP.

    Jonathan Gullis wants to bring Boris Johnson back. Here is his resignation statement from July.

    He stated that he could no longer support Johnson “in good conscience” and condemned Johnson for blaming others for “mistakes in his judgement”.
    https://twitter.com/willgeorgelloyd/status/1583437050564313089

    How many others among the ~60 July resigners will turn around like that? If there's a swarm, I will update my opinion and rate Johnson's chances more highly. But there probably won't be.

    Nominations close at 2pm on Monday. When do they open? What form must they be in? Can a nomination be withdrawn?

    If the answer to the last question is "yes", it could be dramatic if at 1.58pm the person with the second most nominations has say 102.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,163
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    The best outcome of all would be if the disgraced former PM does not make the 100. Better still if he only gets about 45. He is a man that has done so much damage that he cannot be humiliated enough IMO

    I wonder if any of the 15 unnamed supporters are actually Rishi backers so they can drop Boris’s numbers at some point
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    GustavoFrings said:

    AlistairM said:

    The closest to a unity candidate the Tories could hope for. Unfortunately doesn't look like she stands a chance.

    I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

    I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

    #PM4PM
    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1583466532344328193

    She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
    You can’t build a head of steam to get 100 nominations from a low base unless you actually get into the race.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,801
    AlistairM said:

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    New: Boris Johnson has been personally calling Tory MPs from his holiday in a bid to secure their backing, @camillahmturner has been told.

    He promised one MP that there would be a "different culture" in Downing Street if he becomes PM again.
    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1583466052612026369

    Hope he is on an all inclusive plan. Those roaming charges can add up fast!
This discussion has been closed.