+£360 Rishi +£40 Penny -£660 Boris +£1,100 Starmer
Also plus four figures on Badenoch and Braverman in case there's a rumour of them standing, so I can trade, but doubt will happen
Tried to catch you earlier.
I was intrigued by your post early this morning that there is a quick route to Starmer. I don’t see one. Surely the PCP will do anything - absolutely anything! - to avoid a general election?
Hague said Michael Howard has already said something similar.
If Rishi v Boris does go to the members then all former Con leaders need to get together and make a high profile joint declaration of support for Rishi and say how disastrous Boris would be.
That would give enough members pause for thought to get Rishi over the line - if he isn't over the line anyway.
What qualifies that pair of losers to comment any more than Truss or IDS?
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
I loathe the Kwarteng / Truss plan to cap per KwH rates - it's enormously expensive and it dents the price signal.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
The correlation isn't as you describe. Within each income band, there are heavier users (say 4 kids) who will get the same cheque as single person households.
That's why I said per person, not per household.
I claim for my whole household?
Mr Smith gets a cheque Mrs Smith gets a cheque Master Smith gets a cheque Miss Smith gets a cheque
Parents can pay their kids cheques into their own accounts.
How do we know where everyone lives?
I liked the idea of subsidising a certain amount of energy, you are free to consume more but would pay the market rate. Would retain an incentive to save energy - we really do need a programme to reduce demand this winter.
I'm a civil servant, the office is far too fucking hot at the moment, someone needs to go round and fit smart valves to all the radiators and set them to a sensible temperature. Government should be setting an example and not pissing taxpayers money up against the wall on energy
The current (Rishi) £400 subsidy which is currently landing in utility accounts is really quite perverse. We're going to get three of them. Totally mad, we don't need any help. The Truss scheme will be another bung we don't need. At the same time, others are desperate for help.
Obviously we'll be upping our charitable donations to compensate, but it's not a well-designed use of public funds.
Yes but there'll be plenty out there who wouldn't get it if it was means tested in the usual ways (UC) who could probably do with it.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
To think that Pidcock might well have been Labour leader if she'd held her seat.
She and Loopy Liz could have founded a very exclusive club.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
'The worst idea in 46 years' says William Hague......
What happened 46 years go?
He joined the Tories 46 years ago. He said it was the worst idea since he joined 46 years ago.
Meaning his decision to join the Tories was an even more egregious error?
Here you go:
The return of Boris Johnson to Number 10 would send the Conservative Party into a ‘death spiral’, William Hague has warned.
The Tory grandee, once leader himself and former Foreign Secretary, said Mr Johnson’s return was “the worst idea I’ve heard of in the 46 years I’ve been a member of the Conservative Party”.
So the Tory Bozo cult will just call the committee investigating him partisan and get rid of it .
Not in their power to do that, surely?
They could, by suspending the SOs of the house and winding up the investigation. But they wouldn’t, surely? Not least because after Paterson there probably isn’t a majority for it.
Most constitutions of most formal organisations contain a clause, at the end of the rules, allowing a properly constituted meeting to suspend any of the rules - which a clever member can use to find a way to achieve almost anything that would otherwise have been contrary to said rules. But it is the nuclear option, and in the real world rarely used.
So the Tory Bozo cult will just call the committee investigating him partisan and get rid of it .
Not in their power to do that, surely?
They could, by suspending the SOs of the house and winding up the investigation. But they wouldn’t, surely? Not least because after Paterson there probably isn’t a majority for it.
Most constitutions of most formal organisations contain a clause, at the end of the rules, allowing a properly constituted meeting to suspend any of the rules - which a clever member can use to find a way to achieve almost anything that would otherwise have been contrary to said rules. But it is the nuclear option, and in the real world rarely used.
There is if 326 Tory MPs want or accept him.
And if they don’t he won’t be PM anyway so it’s irrelevant.
So the Tory Bozo cult will just call the committee investigating him partisan and get rid of it .
Not in their power to do that, surely?
The Commons can vote to get rid of the investigation. So if enough Tory MPs vote then that’s it . They will try and spin it as divisive at this fragile time for the country/ its partisan . That’s hilarious given it’s got a majority of Tory MPs.
Those MPs will be under pressure to find in favour of the clown so as not to precipitate another leadership drama .
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Sunak well ahead in confirmed supporters. Johnson appears to be engaging in boosterism. Why?
Also why is no-one questioning Johnson's supporting of Truss? Surely the best way to target his campaign is to call it continuity Truss.
I do just wonder if Boris wants to be perceived king maker and not king. A big gesture with Rishi, PM comes on board, he goes off to make cash with their support for a change of seat, and he comes back in opposition if they lose and he fancies it.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
To think that Pidcock might well have been Labour leader if she'd held her seat.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Oh ffs.
£10 at 4/1 is the only interest I have in the matter
Sunak well ahead in confirmed supporters. Johnson appears to be engaging in boosterism. Why?
Also why is no-one questioning Johnson's supporting of Truss? Surely the best way to target his campaign is to call it continuity Truss.
Even more the suspicion that he only backed Truss for selfish reasons that she would crash and burn and he could come back. Although some might say that was demonstrating sound political nous and judgement.
So the Tory Bozo cult will just call the committee investigating him partisan and get rid of it .
Not in their power to do that, surely?
They could, by suspending the SOs of the house and winding up the investigation. But they wouldn’t, surely? Not least because after Paterson there probably isn’t a majority for it.
Most constitutions of most formal organisations contain a clause, at the end of the rules, allowing a properly constituted meeting to suspend any of the rules - which a clever member can use to find a way to achieve almost anything that would otherwise have been contrary to said rules. But it is the nuclear option, and in the real world rarely used.
There is if 326 Tory MPs want or accept him.
And if they don’t he won’t be PM anyway so it’s irrelevant.
He doesn’t need 326 to get his fat arse back in the big chair.
And even among Tory MPs there will be many wary of doing something so egregiously partisan. After Paterson they know it would mean the breakdown of cross-party co-operation on standards.
NYT - Jan. 6 Panel Issues Subpoena to Trump, Setting Up Legal Battle Over Testimony While the former president has suggested he might testify live before the committee, it was far more likely that the demand would lead to a protracted legal battle over whether he could be compelled to cooperate.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but we're still talking about nominations, not votes. Is there any reason to think anything like all the Tory MPs will nominate someone?
You are right of course, but it's the best indication of votes we've got.
The vote, the nomination (which is secret), and the public statement are all separate, right? So conceivably an MP could nominate one candidate, say that they've nominated another, and then vote for the third?
Is the actual vote secret ? - I seem to recall that it is.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Oh ffs.
"The BoJo's got the MoMo, Kinabubbs."
Has anyone told him that winning the Tory leadership doesn’t actually guarantee he becomes PM?
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
To think that Pidcock might well have been Labour leader if she'd held her seat.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
He's cutting short a holiday? Blimey!
He must want it really badly.
This is the second time he’s been rumoured to be coming home. He might just be pissing himself laughing at the reaction before saying he won’t stand and backing one of the other two before the markets open on Monday.
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
There's a four letter word down towards the right hand corner that I think sums him up perfectly.
Oh, I missed that - I was thinking of the incidence on the left lower part of the middle sector.
It appears twice. Above "Bafoon" as well. So, I guess it should be twice as big.
Is it linear or areal dimension, I wonder, which is proportional to the number of mentions?
You need to get out more, just sayin'
It is the sort of question that catches my mind when I'm at home doing some extremely tedious checking while waiting for Mrs C to come home from her day out and with the dinner!
'The worst idea in 46 years' says William Hague......
What happened 46 years go?
He joined the Tories 46 years ago. He said it was the worst idea since he joined 46 years ago.
Meaning his decision to join the Tories was an even more egregious error?
Here you go:
The return of Boris Johnson to Number 10 would send the Conservative Party into a ‘death spiral’, William Hague has warned.
The Tory grandee, once leader himself and former Foreign Secretary, said Mr Johnson’s return was “the worst idea I’ve heard of in the 46 years I’ve been a member of the Conservative Party”.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
Utah is special, but I prefer Arizona. Painted Desert, Meteor Crater, Desert Museum, that canyon (obs) and the wild country along the Mexican border. Guy there showed me his large collection of hummingbird feeders - dozens of them smashed to bits, cuz the bears like a sweet drink....
Any special recommendations along the Ariz/Mex border?
Mount Lemmon, NE of Tucson is very scenic - travel the Catalina Highway. Mount Lemmon goes up to over 9,000. From Mount Lemmon, looking west you can see the Mount Pinal "plane graveyard" NW of Tucson - a quite staggering area of all manner of planes waiting for, mostly, the breakers. It is restricted but I believe it might be possible to do a tour of Pinal Airpark. Worth it if you get a chance.
A group of us went for the wildlife but had a blast. There's old wild west tourist stuff like Old Tuscon. Great memories of a particular night on the border near Nogales (go see the wall that divides it from its portion in Mexico) in a proper cowboy karaoke bar. "Delilah" being belted out with some very Brummy accents went down especially well.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Now 35 short of the greatest comeback since Mariah Carey
Update 34 of 179 required
Bet accordingly
Pulpstar Posts: 72,390 October 20 Are we all writing Boris off ? He's got a constituency amongst MPs.... And if he gets to the membership...... It's not a risk I'm taking when I can cover at 30s given how I've called this one so far anyway
Hague said Michael Howard has already said something similar.
If Rishi v Boris does go to the members then all former Con leaders need to get together and make a high profile joint declaration of support for Rishi and say how disastrous Boris would be.
That would give enough members pause for thought to get Rishi over the line - if he isn't over the line anyway.
What qualifies that pair of losers to comment any more than Truss or IDS?
I believe that Hague, Major, Howard, IDS, May and Cameron are all opposed to Johnson for varying reasons. If they were to make a joint statement prior to a members ballot it would be pretty powerful.
If Johnson makes it to the membership ballot I think we might see some extraordinary efforts made to try to stop him winning, particularly if he only has the support of about a third of the MPs.
A threat from 40 MPs to bring about a GE if Johnson became PM again would also have quite an impact. (whether they would ever follow through wouldn't really matter, the threat would be credible)
The Lib Dems must be so disappointed that their national poll ratings have benefitted so little from this.
Still, even taken at face value, these figures would amount to huge swings in their target seats.
The problem is that on these swings, Lib Dems start to lose to Labour in LibDem/Labour marginals. There aren't many of them but Daisy Cooper loses her St Albans seat for instance.
In 2019 St Albans voted LD 50.1% Con 39.2% Lab 8.7%. Applying current polls would only see Labour at circa 30% wih LDs little changed. It had been a Labour seat 1997 - 2005 so the 2019 result implies massive Labour tactical voting which would have to totally unwind for Labour to be back in contention there. Very unlikely as LDs enjoy incumbency advantage.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
At last the Corbynite party we havd been waiting for. Sultana, Burgon and Ding dong to join the throng?? In all seriousness she has no chance as an indy but some sort of 'Corbyn left' branding might attract a few %
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
He's cutting short a holiday? Blimey!
He must want it really badly.
This is the second time he’s been rumoured to be coming home. He might just be pissing himself laughing at the reaction before saying he won’t stand and backing one of the other two before the markets open on Monday.
That had occurred to me. He might be wearing his 2016 hat, not his 2019 one.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
When is anyone ever going to hold Graham Brady Old Lady to account - he’s handled god knows how many leadership elections disastrously now
This guy has always been a fuckwit. Became an MP because of his mother and I’m sure was on the shortlist of “stupidest” MPs at one point. He hasn’t got any smarter (although has probably moved up as the gene pool has deteriorated)
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
I loathe the Kwarteng / Truss plan to cap per KwH rates - it's enormously expensive and it dents the price signal.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
The correlation isn't as you describe. Within each income band, there are heavier users (say 4 kids) who will get the same cheque as single person households.
That's why I said per person, not per household.
I claim for my whole household?
Mr Smith gets a cheque Mrs Smith gets a cheque Master Smith gets a cheque Miss Smith gets a cheque
Parents can pay their kids cheques into their own accounts.
How do we know where everyone lives?
I liked the idea of subsidising a certain amount of energy, you are free to consume more but would pay the market rate. Would retain an incentive to save energy - we really do need a programme to reduce demand this winter.
I'm a civil servant, the office is far too fucking hot at the moment, someone needs to go round and fit smart valves to all the radiators and set them to a sensible temperature. Government should be setting an example and not pissing taxpayers money up against the wall on energy
On Thursday, a grad at the office told me that a temperature of 18c was against his human rights….
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
This has been brewing for many years. Many on the 'left' see Corbyn and Pidcock as the dream ticket for a new left wing party. It could lead to an exit of far left activists from the Labour party. Hard to see this doing much damage to the overall electability of the labour party. It is also brilliant how they choose the moment that labour is highest in the polls, to do this.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
At last the Corbynite party we havd been waiting for. Sultana, Burgon and Ding dong to join the throng?? In all seriousness she has no chance as an indy but some sort of 'Corbyn left' branding might attract a few %
Once Rishi is PM expect Redwood, JRM and others to be doing a similar thing from the right.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
At last the Corbynite party we havd been waiting for. Sultana, Burgon and Ding dong to join the throng?? In all seriousness she has no chance as an indy but some sort of 'Corbyn left' branding might attract a few %
Corbynistas could do that across the industrial North and the RedWall, split the Labour vote and deliver the Johnson Government they all desire.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 6h Replying to @REWearmouth A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
Holborn and St Pancras would be an interesting one for Corbyn to try.
Lol yes. But he might well hold in Islington on his own personal vote. If he can find a mate to run against twat features Thornberry in the other Islington seat that would be nice
Anne-Marie Trevelyan @annietrev I have worked closely with @BorisJohnson for many years. He can continue to deliver for the country and already has a mandate. It’s time to #bringbackboris
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
I loathe the Kwarteng / Truss plan to cap per KwH rates - it's enormously expensive and it dents the price signal.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
The correlation isn't as you describe. Within each income band, there are heavier users (say 4 kids) who will get the same cheque as single person households.
That's why I said per person, not per household.
I claim for my whole household?
Mr Smith gets a cheque Mrs Smith gets a cheque Master Smith gets a cheque Miss Smith gets a cheque
Parents can pay their kids cheques into their own accounts.
How do we know where everyone lives?
I liked the idea of subsidising a certain amount of energy, you are free to consume more but would pay the market rate. Would retain an incentive to save energy - we really do need a programme to reduce demand this winter.
I'm a civil servant, the office is far too fucking hot at the moment, someone needs to go round and fit smart valves to all the radiators and set them to a sensible temperature. Government should be setting an example and not pissing taxpayers money up against the wall on energy
On Thursday, a grad at the office told me that a temperature of 18c was against his human rights….
You can go down another two more degrees towards abs zero - 5 if you make the grad hump boxes of A4 paper.
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Jon Craig @joncraig · 30m BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
Utah is special, but I prefer Arizona. Painted Desert, Meteor Crater, Desert Museum, that canyon (obs) and the wild country along the Mexican border. Guy there showed me his large collection of hummingbird feeders - dozens of them smashed to bits, cuz the bears like a sweet drink....
Any special recommendations along the Ariz/Mex border?
Mount Lemmon, NE of Tucson is very scenic - travel the Catalina Highway. Mount Lemmon goes up to over 9,000. From Mount Lemmon, looking west you can see the Mount Pinal "plane graveyard" NW of Tucson - a quite staggering area of all manner of planes waiting for, mostly, the breakers. It is restricted but I believe it might be possible to do a tour of Pinal Airpark. Worth it if you get a chance.
A group of us went for the wildlife but had a blast. There's old wild west tourist stuff like Old Tuscon. Great memories of a particular night on the border near Nogales (go see the wall that divides it from its portion in Mexico) in a proper cowboy karaoke bar. "Delilah" being belted out with some very Brummy accents went down especially well.
I defy you not to have a good time down there.
Leon, if you want hot weather, check out Yuma. Usually hotter than hinges of hell.
BTW, had the Pfizer jab again (like all the other times). Arm kicked by a horse, headache, but I'll take that for the protection it gives....
I had Moderna booster this week. I thought all boosters this time were Moderna.
No, we didn’t get enough of the moderna for all. The Pfizer one will do ok. Despite endless warbling on covid twitter, there has been no significant immune escape, at least in terms of protection against serious illness.
Edit - I see you may have had the Pfizer bivalent, in which case excellent news.
How do you get a booster? Do I need to ask for one or is it automatic?
Comments
Because the week running up to it has been wild enough frankly, so God knows what the actual holiday will bring.
If so thats all I need to know
Thanks
I'm a civil servant, the office is far too fucking hot at the moment, someone needs to go round and fit smart valves to all the radiators and set them to a sensible temperature. Government should be setting an example and not pissing taxpayers money up against the wall on energy
@joncraig
·
30m
BoJo ally Sir James Duddridge phones me & tells me he’s spoken to Boris Johnson & he’s “up for it” & told him: “I’m going to do it, Dudders!” Says ex-PM is returning to UK from Caribbean holiday.
Also its no coincidence that good strong knob are close to each other
But if I were him I'd just try and maximise my first round to make it look overwhelmingly in his favour vs Boris.
Now 35 short of the greatest comeback since Mariah Carey
Most constitutions of most formal organisations contain a clause, at the end of the rules, allowing a properly constituted meeting to suspend any of the rules - which a clever member can use to find a way to achieve almost anything that would otherwise have been contrary to said rules. But it is the nuclear option, and in the real world rarely used.
Must have missed that in all the speculation about Boris
Sunak well ahead in confirmed supporters. Johnson appears to be engaging in boosterism. Why?
Also why is no-one questioning Johnson's supporting of Truss? Surely the best way to target his campaign is to call it continuity Truss.
And if they don’t he won’t be PM anyway so it’s irrelevant.
Those MPs will be under pressure to find in favour of the clown so as not to precipitate another leadership drama .
Its hilarious how Centrists are wetting their selves at the prospect
And even among Tory MPs there will be many wary of doing something so egregiously partisan. After Paterson they know it would mean the breakdown of cross-party co-operation on standards.
While the former president has suggested he might testify live before the committee, it was far more likely that the demand would lead to a protracted legal battle over whether he could be compelled to cooperate.
He must want it really badly.
The members don't give a fig how many MPs the other guy has. If they get a sniff of Johnson they will put him back in No 10.
Bet accordingly
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/france-joins-other-european-countries-pulling-out-treaty-protecting-energy-2022-10-21/
Just add 46 + 200. With Wm Hague the Lord North that never was. (Or even the Liz Truss that never was.)
Thanks for the information
@REWearmouth
·
6h
Replying to
@REWearmouth
A rumour which has been doing the rounds for a while is that Pidcock could stand as an independent somewhere in Newcastle & that Corbyn may do something similar in London.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1583027258708459520
@NewStatesman
EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1555476253045673987
Thinking ahead, what chance of Boris winning but never befoming Prime Minister due to sufficient Tories resigning the whip?
If I only had two years left of my career I'd be tempted to go out on a point of principle.
A group of us went for the wildlife but had a blast. There's old wild west tourist stuff like Old Tuscon. Great memories of a particular night on the border near Nogales (go see the wall that divides it from its portion in Mexico) in a proper cowboy karaoke bar. "Delilah" being belted out with some very Brummy accents went down especially well.
I defy you not to have a good time down there.
October 20
Are we all writing Boris off ?
He's got a constituency amongst MPs....
And if he gets to the membership......
It's not a risk I'm taking when I can cover at 30s given how I've called this one so far anyway
If Johnson makes it to the membership ballot I think we might see some extraordinary efforts made to try to stop him winning, particularly if he only has the support of about a third of the MPs.
A threat from 40 MPs to bring about a GE if Johnson became PM again would also have quite an impact. (whether they would ever follow through wouldn't really matter, the threat would be credible)
In all seriousness she has no chance as an indy but some sort of 'Corbyn left' branding might attract a few %
Which since the alternative is a known sh*t is good enough for me.
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Many on the 'left' see Corbyn and Pidcock as the dream ticket for a new left wing party. It could lead to an exit of far left activists from the Labour party. Hard to see this doing much damage to the overall electability of the labour party.
It is also brilliant how they choose the moment that labour is highest in the polls, to do this.
@annietrev
I have worked closely with @BorisJohnson for many years. He can continue to deliver for the country and already has a mandate. It’s time to #bringbackboris
https://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1583516523146407937
https://www.gov.uk/workplace-temperatures
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Take up of the fourth shot is low and hence there is plenty of availability.