Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Agree. She needs to be sent to a rest home ASAP.
TBH I feel rather sorry for her; schemed and planned all these years to get to the job and when she gets it everything turns to ashes. Her fault of course but I still feel sorry for her.
If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.
This argument is often made by people who think the institutions that need protecting are those introduced by Blair or Cameron, and are happy to trash anything older than that.
Johnson trashed the reputation of all our institutions, but most of all the Office of Prime Minister
In the past Hunt has not supported Johnson and said he would vote against him in the confidence vote. So if he wouldn't serve under Johnson doesn't that cause some major problems. Perhaps he should be letting everyone know where he stands on a Johnson premiership.
He can't do that it would spook the markets before Johnson has even kicked off his bid.
You know, I don’t necessarily disagree with this. If it would bring the party together all well and good. Would he settle for that? I’d have thought he’d want FS so he could do his mates with Zelensky stuff again
HS is the one job that would actually damage him. He would never accept it.
The best outcome of all would be if the disgraced former PM does not make the 100. Better still if he only gets about 45. He is a man that has done so much damage that he cannot be humiliated enough IMO
Good chance of failing to reach the 100 imo.
I hope you are right. The additional upside of this would be the resignation of all the Brexit Party infiltrators in the Conservative Party
Boris Johnson had to stand down as PM because he was a lying toe rag who had been found to lie to the country, Parliament and his cabinet colleagues, several of whom eventually had enough of being sent out to tell lies for him and quit. The fiasco of Truss's premiership (as his preferred candidate) has not changed this. It remains a fact. He is a serial and pathological liar who cannot be trusted.
It is deeply damaging to both the Conservative party and to the UK that the idea of him coming back is being treated as anything other than a joke. It is deeply unserious and would be funny if the consequences were not so unfortunate.
Enough of this childish, self-indulgent behaviour. Just enough. Appoint Rishi if you are serious about us getting out of this mess or Mordaunt if you are more interested in holding your ground in the House of Commons but keep Boris out of this. He has had his chance and wreaked it by deep, deep character flaws which have not and never will go away.
If Johnson stands, let alone wins I don't think this country can ever be treated seriously again. After the fuckwittery of Corbyn, Johnson and Truss, it seems like politics has been put in a centrifuge and everything is flying to the edge.
What could Johnson's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats Conservative Party be?
Johnson - PM Hunt - Chancellor Rishi - Foreign Secretary Mordaunt - Home Secretary Badenoch - Education
Nadine Dorries? Rees-Mogg?
Ministry of Moonbats.
Mad Nad - Ambassador to Uranus
Jack the Mooch - Lord High Executioner
BTW, am beginning to think that JRM consciously, conscientiously, continuously worked - successfully - to bring down Liz Truss while appearing to be one of her biggest supporters.
Tip off is his (otherwise) moronic handling of the fracking issue. Rees Moog certainly got THAT ball rolling via his opening gambit a week or so ago, which began the process of alienating Tory MPs from constituencies highly allergic to being fracked.
AND note how his suave (irony alert) handling of the ClusterFrack played a key role in hammering the final nail into Madame Whiplash's political coffin. Of course Terry the Human Humidor also played her part, but reckon she was (just another) dupe.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
In the past Hunt has not supported Johnson and said he would vote against him in the confidence vote. So if he wouldn't serve under Johnson doesn't that cause some major problems. Perhaps he should be letting everyone know where he stands on a Johnson premiership.
He can't do that it would spook the markets before Johnson has even kicked off his bid.
Sums up in a nutshell the insanity of anyone considering electing Johnson.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Boris gets to 100 including himself but can't get a flight back in time to sign his own nomination. Unlikely but might happen lol
For context, here are the moves in 10 year bond yields:
USA 4.284 (+0.05) UK 4.10% (+0.19) Spain 3.56% (+0.04) France 2.98% (+0.05) Germany 2.46% (+0.05)
A 0.19% move in 10 year yields is large, but hardly unprecedented. And yes, UK bonds have widened more than others today, but the premium investors are demanding to hold UK debt over European is far from extreme.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Agree. She needs to be sent to a rest home ASAP.
TBH I feel rather sorry for her; schemed and planned all these years to get to the job and when she gets it everything turns to ashes. Her fault of course but I still feel sorry for her.
You're far too nice, OKC. I'm not. I think of the many, many families terrified out of their wits about their mortgages. Which reminds me. I'd better send a donation to the local foodbank in good time before the holidays.
If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.
This argument is often made by people who think the institutions that need protecting are those introduced by Blair or Cameron, and are happy to trash anything older than that.
If modern conservatives believed in conserving any of the country's institutions, rather than clinging to Schumpeter, there wouldn't be a gap in the market for conservative minded centrists
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
If you've watched any of those Russian TV segments you can see the looks of panic when the nuttiest panellists talk about nukes and/or engaging NATO. They know they've f***ed up. They don't want nukes. They want some way out.
Of course, their way out is to get rid of Putin and to then get out of Ukraine.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
Its probably just doesn't work like most of the Russian tech !!!! Fell off in his hand.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
It would seem unlikely. But the nominations are, I think, secret.
I think MPs - even those already declared - will be looking at Boris’s chances of clearing 100.
If he looks like falling short, some of his never-Rishi supporters will go to Penny.
Possibly, too, if he looks like clearing the threshold, Penny may attract some never-Boris types from Rishi.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
You can’t build a head of steam to get 100 nominations from a low base unless you actually get into the race.
As the outsider, there is a need to be first mover. Penny has the right instincts, and could rise as the compromise candidate.
It looks impossible for the party to unite behind either Johnson or Sunak.
I expect that Penny would win in an AV system...
She is the compromise candidate. Seems neither Rishi or Boris is prepared to back down. If they can't compromise then it will rip the Tory party apart.
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Boris gets to 100 including himself but can't get a flight back in time to sign his own nomination. Unlikely but might happen lol
Isn't it for such emergencies that we have an RAF?
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Don't be ridiculous. She is unemployable except as a backbencher.
Hopefully she'll be given a project of some sort as a consolation prize. What she's been through is unfair.
I can see her serving in a future cabinet. Not right now but in a few months when someone does something particularly stupid and needs replaced sharpish. Personally, I would have no problem with that.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
I am sure there are rumours on twitter that the moon is made of creamy blue Stilton and that Liz Truss was ousted by the lizard people. Does not mean to say that it is true.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
You can’t build a head of steam to get 100 nominations from a low base unless you actually get into the race.
As the outsider, there is a need to be first mover. Penny has the right instincts, and could rise as the compromise candidate.
It looks impossible for the party to unite behind either Johnson or Sunak.
I expect that Penny would win in an AV system...
She is the compromise candidate. Seems neither Rishi or Boris is prepared to back down. If they can't compromise then it will rip the Tory party apart.
There are, however, more never-Borises in the PCP than never-Rishis.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
Penny.
Thanks. Could have been worse.
But - oh, Andrea, the leader that should have been! The leader of my dreams!
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 Washington State adults online 10/14/22 through 10/19/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 719 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
US SENATE
Republican Tiffany Smiley Closes Gap, May Give Incumbent Dem Patty Murray Washington's Closest Senate Race Since 2010:
In an election today for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley 49% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University's Murrow College of Communication. 10% of likely voters are undecided.
Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll in July, Murray is down 2 points and Smiley is up 8, causing a 18-point lead to shrink today to an 8-point lead.
Among men, Murray had led by 2 points, now trails by 6. Among women, Murray had led by 34, now leads by 20. Smiley has cut into Murray's leads among 18 to 34 year-old and 35 to 49 year-old voters, and has moved ahead among voters age 50 to 64, where Murray had led by 14, now trails by 13 – but Murray has widened her lead among voters age 65+, typically the most reliable, where she had led by 10, now leads by 23.
Regionally, Murray leads by 19 points in Metro Seattle and by 8 points elsewhere in Western Washington; Smiley leads by 14 points in Eastern Washington.
On the issues voters say will most impact their votes this fall, Murray leads by 58 points among those most focused on abortion and by 53 points among those most focused on climate change. Smiley leads by 75 points among voters who say border security is the most important issue, by 28 among those focused on inflation, and by 45 points among those who say crime is the most important issue.
Washington's other incumbent US Senator, Democrat Maria Cantwell, won re-election by 17 points in 2018 and by 21 points in 2012; Murray won re-election to her fifth term in 2016 by an 18-point margin. Prior to that, Murray won her 2010 race, against Republican Dino Rossi, by fewer than 5 percentage points – the last time a Senate race in Washington State could be called close.
She is essential to this contest. If it's a Sunak-Johnson battle that only strengthens Johnson IMO.
At the very least it starves BJ of potential votes. But Sunak might be wise to back her. I reckon he has starting strength, but not quite enough to win.
Mordaunt's in with a live chance imo. I'm more confident it won't be Johnson than it will be Sunak.
I rate it Sunak 60%, Mordaunt 30%, Johnson 10%. Something like that.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
A Boris Johnson "promise". What could possibly go wrong?
There are plenty who seem so stupid to have already forgotten that Boris promised a “different culture” several times already, almost as many times as he promised to “take a personal grip from now on”.
If I'm interpreting the consensus correctly (and it's right!), then this looks like the way each candidate can win:
Sunak: Be the only one to get nominated or face Boris in the MP vote and win decisively. Boris: Get nominated and get close enough in the MP vote to force a member vote against Sunak. Mordaunt: Do a deal for Sunak to withdraw in her favour.
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
It's beyond rational explanation. For a certain kind of English Tory, the attachment to Johnson goes way beyond any kind of normal political affiliation. It's love, and love makes people do crazy, self-destructive things. The rest of us can only look on aghast, and hope that one day this nightmare will end.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
Some of us who actually know Russian and Ukrainian politics have been trying to tell everyone that for months.
She is essential to this contest. If it's a Sunak-Johnson battle that only strengthens Johnson IMO.
At the very least it starves BJ of potential votes. But Sunak might be wise to back her. I reckon he has starting strength, but not quite enough to win.
Mordaunt's in with a live chance imo. I'm more confident it won't be Johnson than it will be Sunak.
I rate it Sunak 60%, Mordaunt 30%, Johnson 10%. Something like that.
Johnson would be a farce, but greater than 10% chance.
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Boris gets to 100 including himself but can't get a flight back in time to sign his own nomination. Unlikely but might happen lol
Isn't it for such emergencies that we have an RAF?
I know he is not suitable for PM but I really don't think we should bomb the Dominican Republic to take him out of the running.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
If you've watched any of those Russian TV segments you can see the looks of panic when the nuttiest panellists talk about nukes and/or engaging NATO. They know they've f***ed up. They don't want nukes. They want some way out.
Of course, their way out is to get rid of Putin and to then get out of Ukraine.
I am getting that sense. I hope I’m not just wishcasting. It so easy to do
But PB-ers know I have been one of the more bearish and gloomy of commenters on the war, and yet today I feel a tiny shred of optimism that Russia has peered into the doomsday brink and said Nah
Who knows
My guess right this minute at 09.18 in Moab Utah, is that Russia thinks it can demolish Ukrainian morale with bombs and missiles, hold the line in the south and east through the winter, wait for the west to lose interest, then achieve an OK peace - on Russian terms - in 2023
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
Its a bit like a break up with a girlfriend, then rebounding to an even more incompatible one, then thinking that getting back with the original one is the solution....when there was a very good reason why you split up with them in the first place. It only ends one way, with an even more damaging break down and unhappiness.
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Don't be ridiculous. She is unemployable except as a backbencher.
Hopefully she'll be given a project of some sort as a consolation prize. What she's been through is unfair.
I can see her serving in a future cabinet. Not right now but in a few months when someone does something particularly stupid and needs replaced sharpish. Personally, I would have no problem with that.
It’s genuinely hard to think of which capacity, though. Perhaps BEIS under Rishi; they are not actually a million miles away (ie they are both wrong) on “supply side reform.”
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
I think it's not been updated. Leadsom has Tweeted her suppport and she's not there yet.
(Plucks up courage) Who has Andrea Leadsom teeted her supppport for?
Leadsom is on Guido's list backing Mordaunt (at no 6)
She must think she is going to reach 100 or otherwise why stand at this stage?
You can’t build a head of steam to get 100 nominations from a low base unless you actually get into the race.
As the outsider, there is a need to be first mover. Penny has the right instincts, and could rise as the compromise candidate.
It looks impossible for the party to unite behind either Johnson or Sunak.
I expect that Penny would win in an AV system...
No, Penny always comes third behind Sunak and Johnson, so loses in an AV system, even though she would be the preferred second choice of the vast majority of those who put Sunak or Johnson first.
It's a neat example of one of the weaknesses of AV as an electoral system.
If I'm interpreting the consensus correctly (and it's right!), then this looks like the way each candidate can win:
Sunak: Be the only one to get nominated or face Boris in the MP vote and win decisively. Boris: Get nominated and get close enough in the MP vote to force a member vote against Sunak. Mordaunt: Do a deal for Sunak to withdraw in her favour.
Boris - get Mordaunt to join him Sunak - get Boris to join him Sunak - get Mordaunt to join him The only combination I don't see as possible is Sunak joining under Boris.
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
It's beyond rational explanation. For a certain kind of English Tory, the attachment to Johnson goes way beyond any kind of normal political affiliation. It's love, and love makes people do crazy, self-destructive things. The rest of us can only look on aghast, and hope that one day this nightmare will end.
He's a proven winner, brought down not by incompetence, but by scheming and malevolence by *others*. His sins were not great, and the Truss debacle shows that the country needs his firm leadership back.
Hope he is on an all inclusive plan. Those roaming charges can add up fast!
No problem. He'll hire out Checkers for weddings and bar mitzvahs. Downing St for airbnb
Nah Boris wouldn't hire his "own" place out. He is the sort to co-op somebodies elses place without their permission when they pop off on holiday and leave him the keys to feed the cat.
The Bamfords better watch out, that JCB golf course might be hired out without their knowledge.
A Boris Johnson "promise". What could possibly go wrong?
There are plenty who seem so stupid to have already forgotten that Boris promised a “different culture” several times already, almost as many times as he promised to “take a personal grip from now on”.
Boris has seen this time out of office as 'a clear signal that the British people want us to get on with delivering on their priorities.'.
The problem the country faces is that there is all that you describe but nothing to save us from it. It will roll on, the absurdity and dysfunction. Even if Sunak gets in (big if but I believe he will) as you acutely note, no govt department will be in any position to put forward sensible proposals and that will spook the markets and...and... And that's not forgetting that there is a non-trivial probability that Boris will be PM in a week's time.
I wouldn't read too much into it - but it does sound as though nukes aren't quite as imminent as @Leon keeps assuring us.
FWIW, the reality is that Putin's best hope is to prolong the war as long as he can and hope for Europe getting fatigue and Trump coming back.
And we shouldn't be flying our elint planes quite so close to Russian airspace.
I think that Fiona Hill made a good point, that in any 'peace' deal, the ability of Ukraine to defend itself with Western support should not be compromised. Because Russia won't stop. It may perversely be in our interest to prolong the war, whilst Russia is struggling - if a lot of mobilised soldiers die because of the incompetence of the Russian Army, then it may have some effect on Russians and their willingness to do these types of wars in the future.
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
It's beyond rational explanation. For a certain kind of English Tory, the attachment to Johnson goes way beyond any kind of normal political affiliation. It's love, and love makes people do crazy, self-destructive things. The rest of us can only look on aghast, and hope that one day this nightmare will end.
Well, if we are going to indulge in family anecdata, all the Tories on my family WhatsApp still think Johnson is a complete twat and shouldn't be allowed within several hundred lightyears of No10
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
Its a bit like a break up with a girlfriend, then rebounding to an even more incompatible one, then thinking that getting back with the original one is the solution....when there was a very good reason why you split up with them in the first place. It only ends one way, with an even more damaging break down and unhappiness.
Yes. Never go back to the fizzled out firework
I honestly don't know one example where it has worked
As much as I would find the return of Boris entertaining, we are a bit beyond entertainment value as a sensible test of a politician. We are basically at war
Sunak will do. He’s not great and he’ll lose the election but he won’t lose 300 seats and the Tories will live to fight another day. Boris 2.0 is a gamble too far even for gamblers
Boris Johnson had to stand down as PM because he was a lying toe rag who had been found to lie to the country, Parliament and his cabinet colleagues, several of whom eventually had enough of being sent out to tell lies for him and quit. The fiasco of Truss's premiership (as his preferred candidate) has not changed this. It remains a fact. He is a serial and pathological liar who cannot be trusted.
It is deeply damaging to both the Conservative party and to the UK that the idea of him coming back is being treated as anything other than a joke. It is deeply unserious and would be funny if the consequences were not so unfortunate.
Enough of this childish, self-indulgent behaviour. Just enough. Appoint Rishi if you are serious about us getting out of this mess or Mordaunt if you are more interested in holding your ground in the House of Commons but keep Boris out of this. He has had his chance and wreaked it by deep, deep character flaws which have not and never will go away.
Yup. Well said, David.
I liked this from Owen -
"If Johnson marches back into No 10, then how else to describe the “world’s most successful political party” other than a giant middle finger jabbing itself at the electorate?"
But yours is better since it comes from a Con man.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
If you've watched any of those Russian TV segments you can see the looks of panic when the nuttiest panellists talk about nukes and/or engaging NATO. They know they've f***ed up. They don't want nukes. They want some way out.
Of course, their way out is to get rid of Putin and to then get out of Ukraine.
Specially for Leon - a des. res. (one careful owner, the Royal Observer Corps at a guess)
Surprising the Penny Mordaunt's announcement wasn't accompanied by a flurry of new backers. Her numbers haven't changed:
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now: Rishi: 79 Boris: 63 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Boris gets to 100 including himself but can't get a flight back in time to sign his own nomination. Unlikely but might happen lol
Isn't it for such emergencies that we have an RAF?
The problem the country faces is that there is all that you describe but nothing to save us from it. It will roll on, the absurdity and dysfunction. Even if Sunak gets in (big if but I believe he will) as you acutely note, no govt department will be in any position to put forward sensible proposals and that will spook the markets and...and... And that's not forgetting that there is a non-trivial probability that Boris will be PM in a week's time.
Put it this way, I've asked a Swiss client of ours who is probably going to sign a decent-sized contract with us if they wouldn't mind it being denominated in CHF rather than GBP.
Jut looking at the Betfair odds for next prime minister, I see Keir Starmer at 110/130.
Is that not free money in a week? Could someone walk me through exactly how it's meant to work?
The risk is, I think, that if Boris or Sunak wins and enough MPs leave the party in disgust, Truss wouldn't be able to tell HMK that any successor could command a majority, in which case there might have to be a general election with Truss still as PM but with Boris/Sunak leading the Tory campaign.
Boris Johnson had to stand down as PM because he was a lying toe rag who had been found to lie to the country, Parliament and his cabinet colleagues, several of whom eventually had enough of being sent out to tell lies for him and quit. The fiasco of Truss's premiership (as his preferred candidate) has not changed this. It remains a fact. He is a serial and pathological liar who cannot be trusted.
It is deeply damaging to both the Conservative party and to the UK that the idea of him coming back is being treated as anything other than a joke. It is deeply unserious and would be funny if the consequences were not so unfortunate.
Enough of this childish, self-indulgent behaviour. Just enough. Appoint Rishi if you are serious about us getting out of this mess or Mordaunt if you are more interested in holding your ground in the House of Commons but keep Boris out of this. He has had his chance and wreaked it by deep, deep character flaws which have not and never will go away.
Yup. Well said, David.
I liked this from Owen -
"If Johnson marches back into No 10, then how else to describe the “world’s most successful political party” other than a giant middle finger jabbing itself at the electorate?"
But yours is better since it comes from a Con man.
I wouldn't read too much into it - but it does sound as though nukes aren't quite as imminent as @Leon keeps assuring us.
FWIW, the reality is that Putin's best hope is to prolong the war as long as he can and hope for Europe getting fatigue and Trump coming back.
And we shouldn't be flying our elint planes quite so close to Russian airspace.
There are rumours that Russia is preparing to do a nuclear test. Perhaps the US SecDef asked the Russian Defence Minister to let them know in advance of a test - just to avoid any ambiguity.
In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs leads non-partisan candidate Julie Anderson 40% to 29%, with 30% undecided – overwhelmingly Republicans and independents. Hobbs leads by 20 points among women, and by a nominal single point among men. Anderson edges Hobbs by 4 points among those age 50 to 64, trails by double-digits among both younger and older voters. 53% of Republicans today say they will vote for Anderson, 3% for Hobbs – with 44% undecided. 45% of independents say they will vote for Anderson, 18% for Hobbs – with 37% undecided. Democrats back Hobbs, 81% to 5% – with 15% undecided.
Hobbs leads by 15 points in Metro Seattle, 14 points in the rest of Western Washington; the contest is tied in Eastern Washington.
SSI - Incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs, appointed by Gov. Inslee after previous SOS Republican Kim Wyman resigned to take an election security oversight job with Biden Administration, if elected (to fill the remainder of Wyman's term) would be first Democratic SOS since 1965.
His opponent, Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson, is a sometimes Democrat running with full support of WA State Republicans AND GOP donors, who made sure that nobody with an R next to their name made it out of the Top Two August Primary,by encouraging three GOPers to run, thus splitting the reflexive Republican vote.
Why? Because in their judgement, no avowed Republican was capable of winning statewide, without (maybe) a MASSIVE amount of campaign spending. Which the Secretary of State race was unlikely to attract.
Worth noting that Anderson is NOT a MAGA-maniac or other species of election denier/manipulator. Her election office in Pierce Co (Tacoma & environs) is not perfect, but it's reasonably well run, and honest. At least that's my impression after observing several hand recounts down there, where my candidates (on different occasions) both won AND lost by inches.
How is it possible that the Tory MPs can have no confidence in Boris a few months ago and then suddenly re-elect him leader? It is madness.
Not to mention there is a parliamentary enquiry over his behaviour which could force him out yet again. Plus the polling show the public prefer both Sunak and Mordaunt over Boris.
What is wrong with these Boris-ultra lunatics?!
People are in love with him. He is a seducer. Love makes people do strange things.
All the Tories on my family WhatsApp want Boris back. Even the ones that wanted him gone in July (and were quite angry about it)
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
Are those the Tories that now make up 14% of the electorate, threatening cross-over with the Lib Dems, according to a poll today?
On the subject of Boris, I think he has a higher floor than Truss (or Morduant), and I would be surprised to see the Conservatives poll less than 30% in the General with him in charge.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Agree. She needs to be sent to a rest home ASAP.
TBH I feel rather sorry for her; schemed and planned all these years to get to the job and when she gets it everything turns to ashes. Her fault of course but I still feel sorry for her.
Will personally feel sorry AFTER she leaves politics. And not a moment before.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
His error was not in holding the referendum, which absolutely was needed - there was no democratic consent for all the changes beginning with Maastricht including especially Lisbon (which Brown signed despite a specific manifesto commitment against it).
His errors were:
(a) treating the referendum as something to be won for Remain, rather than as somethign to settle the EU issue one way or the other; and (b) flouncing immediately after it.
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
If you've watched any of those Russian TV segments you can see the looks of panic when the nuttiest panellists talk about nukes and/or engaging NATO. They know they've f***ed up. They don't want nukes. They want some way out.
Of course, their way out is to get rid of Putin and to then get out of Ukraine.
I am getting that sense. I hope I’m not just wishcasting. It so easy to do
But PB-ers know I have been one of the more bearish and gloomy of commenters on the war, and yet today I feel a tiny shred of optimism that Russia has peered into the doomsday brink and said Nah
Who knows
My guess right this minute at 09.18 in Moab Utah, is that Russia thinks it can demolish Ukrainian morale with bombs and missiles, hold the line in the south and east through the winter, wait for the west to lose interest, then achieve an OK peace - on Russian terms - in 2023
"Putin has tried to push the nuclear button"
As the most likely use of nuke by far would be a battlefield tactical device then push the button needs to be preceded by some kind of mobilisation so the weapons are moved to the theatre of the battle. DoD intel has detected no such movements as far as we know. He can't just press a button for a tactical device via his suitcase or whatever.
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Don't be ridiculous. She is unemployable except as a backbencher.
Hopefully she'll be given a project of some sort as a consolation prize. What she's been through is unfair.
I can see her serving in a future cabinet. Not right now but in a few months when someone does something particularly stupid and needs replaced sharpish. Personally, I would have no problem with that.
It’s genuinely hard to think of which capacity, though. Perhaps BEIS under Rishi; they are not actually a million miles away (ie they are both wrong) on “supply side reform.”
We do need supply side reform. Truss was right that we need more growth. She just underestimated (by a significant margin) how much room we still have for manoeuvre. Of course, I am talking about real supply side reform, not rebadging every EU regulation for the sake of it.
She is essential to this contest. If it's a Sunak-Johnson battle that only strengthens Johnson IMO.
At the very least it starves BJ of potential votes. But Sunak might be wise to back her. I reckon he has starting strength, but not quite enough to win.
Mordaunt's in with a live chance imo. I'm more confident it won't be Johnson than it will be Sunak.
I rate it Sunak 60%, Mordaunt 30%, Johnson 10%. Something like that.
Johnson would be a farce, but greater than 10% chance.
I truly don't think so. He has to get the 100. Then he has to be a close enough 2nd to make a members vote viable. Then he has to win that vote. All these things have to happen. Maps to a 10% chance imo.
Jut looking at the Betfair odds for next prime minister, I see Keir Starmer at 110/130.
Is that not free money in a week? Could someone walk me through exactly how it's meant to work?
The risk is, I think, that if Boris or Sunak wins and enough MPs leave the party in disgust, Truss wouldn't be able to tell HMK that any successor could command a majority, in which case there might have to be a general election with Truss still as PM but with Boris/Sunak leading the Tory campaign.
Whether that's ~1% likely is the quiestion.
Very unlikely. I have known a few Tory MPs. Defection is not something they do. If you think about it, most of them spend a large part of their time socialising with other Tories (as Labour MPs do with Labour folk). Defecting would turn their whole lives upside down. It is why it rarely happens.
Jut looking at the Betfair odds for next prime minister, I see Keir Starmer at 110/130.
Is that not free money in a week? Could someone walk me through exactly how it's meant to work?
The risk is, I think, that if Boris or Sunak wins and enough MPs leave the party in disgust, Truss wouldn't be able to tell HMK that any successor could command a majority, in which case there might have to be a general election with Truss still as PM but with Boris/Sunak leading the Tory campaign.
Whether that's ~1% likely is the quiestion.
Would HMK not more or less have to give the official winner a chance to form a government, though?
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
His error was not in holding the referendum, which absolutely was needed - there was no democratic consent for all the changes beginning with Maastricht including especially Lisbon (which Brown signed despite a specific manifesto commitment against it).
His errors were:
(a) treating the referendum as something to be won for Remain, rather than as somethign to settle the EU issue one way or the other; and (b) flouncing immediately after it.
I agree that a referendum was right.
His mistake however was simply treating it as another “game” in the grid. Pure hubris.
He failed in his negotiation in Europe; his failed to sell that negotiation to the public; and he failed to engineer a serious referendum mechanic.
Truss to Home. Just keep her away from the silver.
Don't be ridiculous. She is unemployable except as a backbencher.
Hopefully she'll be given a project of some sort as a consolation prize. What she's been through is unfair.
I can see her serving in a future cabinet. Not right now but in a few months when someone does something particularly stupid and needs replaced sharpish. Personally, I would have no problem with that.
It’s genuinely hard to think of which capacity, though. Perhaps BEIS under Rishi; they are not actually a million miles away (ie they are both wrong) on “supply side reform.”
We do need supply side reform. Truss was right that we need more growth. She just underestimated (by a significant margin) how much room we still have for manoeuvre. Of course, I am talking about real supply side reform, not rebadging every EU regulation for the sake of it.
We desperately need it, but I’m afraid neither Sunak nor Truss have the foggiest idea of what it entails.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
His error was not in holding the referendum, which absolutely was needed - there was no democratic consent for all the changes beginning with Maastricht including especially Lisbon (which Brown signed despite a specific manifesto commitment against it).
His errors were:
(a) treating the referendum as something to be won for Remain, rather than as somethign to settle the EU issue one way or the other; and (b) flouncing immediately after it.
I agree that a referendum was right.
His mistake however was simply treating it as another “game” in the grid. Pure hubris.
He failed in his negotiation in Europe; his failed to sell that negotiation to the public; and he failed to engineer a serious referendum mechanic.
The big mistake was not having a confirmatory referendum built in after the negotiations.
Comments
Her fault of course but I still feel sorry for her.
From what we've seen in the last few weeks, she might be capable of stacking shelves, under close supervision and given a lot of personal support.
FWIW, the reality is that Putin's best hope is to prolong the war as long as he can and hope for Europe getting fatigue and Trump coming back.
And we shouldn't be flying our elint planes quite so close to Russian airspace.
It is deeply damaging to both the Conservative party and to the UK that the idea of him coming back is being treated as anything other than a joke. It is deeply unserious and would be funny if the consequences were not so unfortunate.
Enough of this childish, self-indulgent behaviour. Just enough. Appoint Rishi if you are serious about us getting out of this mess or Mordaunt if you are more interested in holding your ground in the House of Commons but keep Boris out of this. He has had his chance and wreaked it by deep, deep character flaws which have not and never will go away.
Jack the Mooch - Lord High Executioner
BTW, am beginning to think that JRM consciously, conscientiously, continuously worked - successfully - to bring down Liz Truss while appearing to be one of her biggest supporters.
Tip off is his (otherwise) moronic handling of the fracking issue. Rees Moog certainly got THAT ball rolling via his opening gambit a week or so ago, which began the process of alienating Tory MPs from constituencies highly allergic to being fracked.
AND note how his suave (irony alert) handling of the ClusterFrack played a key role in hammering the final nail into Madame Whiplash's political coffin. Of course Terry the Human Humidor also played her part, but reckon she was (just another) dupe.
https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1583475103836549120
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are now:
Rishi: 79
Boris: 63
Penny: 22
(my numbers include the candidate - need 101 unless can nominate yourself)
With only 196 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Fascinating. There are rumours on Twitter that Putin has tried to push the nuclear button and been rebuffed. I wonder if this is of a piece with that. His generals and ministers have no desire for all out war
🙏
Unlikely but might happen lol
It looks impossible for the party to unite behind either Johnson or Sunak.
I expect that Penny would win in an AV system...
Has joined the Sunak WhatsApp group and pledged his support to fellow MPs
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1583473009893179392
Wasn't expecting that one!
Of course, their way out is to get rid of Putin and to then get out of Ukraine.
But the nominations are, I think, secret.
I think MPs - even those already declared - will be looking at Boris’s chances of clearing 100.
If he looks like falling short, some of his never-Rishi supporters will go to Penny.
Possibly, too, if he looks like clearing the threshold, Penny may attract some never-Boris types from Rishi.
The non Tories are quiet
Will the British people feel the same way? I honestly don’t know. The Trussterfuck was such an earthquake it is difficult to predict the aftershocks
But - oh, Andrea, the leader that should have been! The leader of my dreams!
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 Washington State adults online 10/14/22 through 10/19/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 719 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
US SENATE
Republican Tiffany Smiley Closes Gap, May Give Incumbent Dem Patty Murray Washington's Closest Senate Race Since 2010:
In an election today for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley 49% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University's Murrow College of Communication. 10% of likely voters are undecided.
Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll in July, Murray is down 2 points and Smiley is up 8, causing a 18-point lead to shrink today to an 8-point lead.
Among men, Murray had led by 2 points, now trails by 6. Among women, Murray had led by 34, now leads by 20. Smiley has cut into Murray's leads among 18 to 34 year-old and 35 to 49 year-old voters, and has moved ahead among voters age 50 to 64, where Murray had led by 14, now trails by 13 – but Murray has widened her lead among voters age 65+, typically the most reliable, where she had led by 10, now leads by 23.
Regionally, Murray leads by 19 points in Metro Seattle and by 8 points elsewhere in Western Washington; Smiley leads by 14 points in Eastern Washington.
On the issues voters say will most impact their votes this fall, Murray leads by 58 points among those most focused on abortion and by 53 points among those most focused on climate change. Smiley leads by 75 points among voters who say border security is the most important issue, by 28 among those focused on inflation, and by 45 points among those who say crime is the most important issue.
Washington's other incumbent US Senator, Democrat Maria Cantwell, won re-election by 17 points in 2018 and by 21 points in 2012; Murray won re-election to her fifth term in 2016 by an 18-point margin. Prior to that, Murray won her 2010 race, against Republican Dino Rossi, by fewer than 5 percentage points – the last time a Senate race in Washington State could be called close.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=322a12a2-eb38-4c28-8049-6c6203865bcf
I rate it Sunak 60%, Mordaunt 30%, Johnson 10%. Something like that.
LAB: 56% (+5)
CON: 19% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
REF: 5% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-3)
via @YouGov
Sunak: Be the only one to get nominated or face Boris in the MP vote and win decisively.
Boris: Get nominated and get close enough in the MP vote to force a member vote against Sunak.
Mordaunt: Do a deal for Sunak to withdraw in her favour.
But PB-ers know I have been one of the more bearish and gloomy of commenters on the war, and yet today I feel a tiny shred of optimism that Russia has peered into the doomsday brink and said Nah
Who knows
My guess right this minute at 09.18 in Moab Utah, is that Russia thinks it can demolish Ukrainian morale with bombs and missiles, hold the line in the south and east through the winter, wait for the west to lose interest, then achieve an OK peace - on Russian terms - in 2023
It's a neat example of one of the weaknesses of AV as an electoral system.
Sunak - get Boris to join him
Sunak - get Mordaunt to join him
The only combination I don't see as possible is Sunak joining under Boris.
(In their eyes; I disagree.)
Besides, BREXIT.
The Bamfords better watch out, that JCB golf course might be hired out without their knowledge.
Is that not free money in a week? Could someone walk me through exactly how it's meant to work?
But we need a "so what?"
Short gilts, buy USD vs GBP, back Starmer.
The problem the country faces is that there is all that you describe but nothing to save us from it. It will roll on, the absurdity and dysfunction. Even if Sunak gets in (big if but I believe he will) as you acutely note, no govt department will be in any position to put forward sensible proposals and that will spook the markets and...and... And that's not forgetting that there is a non-trivial probability that Boris will be PM in a week's time.
I honestly don't know one example where it has worked
As much as I would find the return of Boris entertaining, we are a bit beyond entertainment value as a sensible test of a politician. We are basically at war
Sunak will do. He’s not great and he’ll lose the election but he won’t lose 300 seats and the Tories will live to fight another day. Boris 2.0 is a gamble too far even for gamblers
I liked this from Owen -
"If Johnson marches back into No 10, then how else to describe the “world’s most successful political party” other than a giant middle finger jabbing itself at the electorate?"
But yours is better since it comes from a Con man.
https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1582375961848209408?cxt=HHwWgICjsbaj3fUrAAAA
Whether that's ~1% likely is the quiestion.
In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs leads non-partisan candidate Julie Anderson 40% to 29%, with 30% undecided – overwhelmingly Republicans and independents. Hobbs leads by 20 points among women, and by a nominal single point among men. Anderson edges Hobbs by 4 points among those age 50 to 64, trails by double-digits among both younger and older voters. 53% of Republicans today say they will vote for Anderson, 3% for Hobbs – with 44% undecided. 45% of independents say they will vote for Anderson, 18% for Hobbs – with 37% undecided. Democrats back Hobbs, 81% to 5% – with 15% undecided.
Hobbs leads by 15 points in Metro Seattle, 14 points in the rest of Western Washington; the contest is tied in Eastern Washington.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=322a12a2-eb38-4c28-8049-6c6203865bcf
SSI - Incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs, appointed by Gov. Inslee after previous SOS Republican Kim Wyman resigned to take an election security oversight job with Biden Administration, if elected (to fill the remainder of Wyman's term) would be first Democratic SOS since 1965.
His opponent, Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson, is a sometimes Democrat running with full support of WA State Republicans AND GOP donors, who made sure that nobody with an R next to their name made it out of the Top Two August Primary,by encouraging three GOPers to run, thus splitting the reflexive Republican vote.
Why? Because in their judgement, no avowed Republican was capable of winning statewide, without (maybe) a MASSIVE amount of campaign spending. Which the Secretary of State race was unlikely to attract.
Worth noting that Anderson is NOT a MAGA-maniac or other species of election denier/manipulator. Her election office in Pierce Co (Tacoma & environs) is not perfect, but it's reasonably well run, and honest. At least that's my impression after observing several hand recounts down there, where my candidates (on different occasions) both won AND lost by inches.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
His errors were:
(a) treating the referendum as something to be won for Remain, rather than as somethign to settle the EU issue one way or the other; and
(b) flouncing immediately after it.
As the most likely use of nuke by far would be a battlefield tactical device then push the button needs to be preceded by some kind of mobilisation so the weapons are moved to the theatre of the battle. DoD intel has detected no such movements as far as we know. He can't just press a button for a tactical device via his suitcase or whatever.
No one has any info, everything is emotional. It is a choppy sea of uncertainty.
His mistake however was simply treating it as another “game” in the grid. Pure hubris.
He failed in his negotiation in Europe; his failed to sell that negotiation to the public; and he failed to engineer a serious referendum mechanic.
Geopolitics, aliens, the upcoming dissolution of the human race - not so much.
For one thing I'd quite like a deal to be done with France over the hordes crossing the Channel in small boats.
That requires diplomacy and competence.
The lowest Labour lead so far this month is 21pp (three times).