Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
On the subject of Boris, I think he has a higher floor than Truss (or Morduant), and I would be surprised to see the Conservatives poll less than 30% in the General with him in charge.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
In October 2021 the Tories polled as high as 41%.
In the month before Johnson was forced to resign the highest the Tories polled was 35%.
It's striking given how much the polls have moved since then that he lost relatively little support despite the crises he created.
The Tories were polling about 40% last autumn, since when Labour has been in the lead. The Tories were consistently about 32% this year until the Truss disaster, so a loss of one fifth of Tory support under Johnson. Current floor hard to determine due to volatility, but looks to be low twenties.
Questions. Can Johnson win back the support he previously lost? Seems unlikely. Can he stabilise support above current wipeout levels? Possibly. Is he more likely to stabilise support than another Tory leader? Not necessarily.
One obvious concern for the Tories is that the polls have got even worse since Truss resigned.
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
Had a letter today to say that my winter fuel payment is £300. The way it's worded lead to expect that Mrs C will also get £300. Mr Camyx' reminder to donate to a food bank seems appropriate!!
Henry Mance @henrymance · 1h absolutely superb. calling MPs *from his holiday* to assure them he has changed
Where’s he meant to be?
Can’t blame him for being in the Caribbean writing his memoirs where it’s 30C and sunny rather than Herne Hill where it’s << checks notes >> 15C, overcast, and lightly drizzling
*stares out at beautiful cloudless Moab Utah desert sky*
Er, he could be doing the job he's fucking paid to do??
Working From Holiday.
I suspect rather he's relaxing in the Main.
Nice pun EXCEPT that "Spanish Main" referred - oddly enough - to the Mainland, not the Islands.
As it happens, I was aware of that. But you can't make a decent pun out of 'relaxing in the Spanish West Indies.'
Don't worry though, I won't hate 'ee for pointing it out.
Henry Mance @henrymance · 1h absolutely superb. calling MPs *from his holiday* to assure them he has changed
Where’s he meant to be?
Can’t blame him for being in the Caribbean writing his memoirs where it’s 30C and sunny rather than Herne Hill where it’s << checks notes >> 15C, overcast, and lightly drizzling
*stares out at beautiful cloudless Moab Utah desert sky*
Er, he could be doing the job he's fucking paid to do??
Working From Holiday.
I suspect rather he's relaxing in the Main.
Nice pun EXCEPT that "Spanish Main" referred - oddly enough - to the Mainland, not the Islands.
Much depends on the unnamed Officers - if they are genuine then Boris is at 62 with just over 50% still to declare.
Looks as if Boris is going to be in range 90-120.
Firstly, I'm a bit suspicious of how many "unnamed MPs" Guido has next to Johnson compared with others - feels a bit like ramping, although I may be wrong.
Secondly, I do rather wonder if the "Boris and/or Bust!" Brigade are likely to declare early-ish compared with others. Those who are in the "Not Boris under any circumstances" camp have a choice of candidates.
Henry Mance @henrymance · 1h absolutely superb. calling MPs *from his holiday* to assure them he has changed
Where’s he meant to be?
Can’t blame him for being in the Caribbean writing his memoirs where it’s 30C and sunny rather than Herne Hill where it’s << checks notes >> 15C, overcast, and lightly drizzling
*stares out at beautiful cloudless Moab Utah desert sky*
Er, he could be doing the job he's fucking paid to do??
Working From Holiday.
I suspect rather he's relaxing in the Main.
Nice pun EXCEPT that "Spanish Main" referred - oddly enough - to the Mainland, not the Islands.
UK includes two island Mainlands.
But the Spanish Main ain't either of the 'em - neither the one or the 1/5 of the other.
Much depends on the unnamed Officers - if they are genuine then Boris is at 62 with just over 50% still to declare.
Looks as if Boris is going to be in range 90-120.
Firstly, I'm a bit suspicious of how many "unnamed MPs" Guido has next to Johnson compared with others - feels a bit like ramping, although I may be wrong.
Secondly, I do rather wonder if the "Boris and/or Bust!" Brigade are likely to declare early-ish compared with others. Those who are in the "Not Boris under any circumstances" camp have a choice of candidates.
It was blatant ramping. He was blowing smoke up BoJos backside as soon as the rumour came out that he was running.
I think Rishi can probably count on about half of the party. Say, 180.
I think Boris will scrape through (105) and Penny will fall short (72).
The indicative vote will then result in something like 230 / 127 to Rishi, and then it is over to members.
I think it will be very hard though for the members to flout the clear direction of the PCP.
In that scenario, if Rishi doesn't lend Penny 50 votes in return for her then dropping out and getting the Cabinet post of her choice, then he is a complete pillock and deserves to lose again.
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
We can hope.
My other bit of copium is the way that Boris's Club Mad backers were out of the blocks really quickly- he hasn't collected that many more names today. Maybe enough people do remember what it was like three months ago.
If the Tories let Boris back in it shows a tolerance for corruption and a disregard for the rule of law.
It’s that simple.
If you care about the country’s institutions, you cannot in conscience welcome a Boris return.
Whether you think that is better for Tory or indeed Labour prospects, or not.
There is no chance. It's a classic teaser campaign know to advertisers everywhere. It's designed to get people talking as they wait for the reveal. A Johnson comeback would destroy them as a serious Party for ever and their MPs know this. He's doing it to be talked about and to massage his ego. Even if they were foolish enough to give him enough votes I'm sure he wouldn't accept the job
Spot on, Roger, apart from the very last sentence. If he could somehow turn the hype into an actual win - not happening imo but let's just assume - I'm pretty sure he'd be delighted to be back at number 10.
Johnson is starting to drift in the betting, given that it isn't clear he has the MPs. His strongest supporters will have already declared and it is going to be difficult for him to win over others.
I knew 3 future MP's at Uni. One was Chris Pincher and another was Chris Mathieson. The third is not male, nor called Chris, nor mired in sexual scandal
Much depends on the unnamed Officers - if they are genuine then Boris is at 62 with just over 50% still to declare.
Looks as if Boris is going to be in range 90-120.
Firstly, I'm a bit suspicious of how many "unnamed MPs" Guido has next to Johnson compared with others - feels a bit like ramping, although I may be wrong.
Secondly, I do rather wonder if the "Boris and/or Bust!" Brigade are likely to declare early-ish compared with others. Those who are in the "Not Boris under any circumstances" camp have a choice of candidates.
It was blatant ramping. He was blowing smoke up BoJos backside as soon as the rumour came out that he was running.
Yes, the chances that within hours of the contest starting, something like eight anonymous "whips" would have suddenly declared for Johnson, when so few members generally had made a decision, doesn't ring true.
I think Rishi can probably count on about half of the party. Say, 180.
I think Boris will scrape through (105) and Penny will fall short (72).
The indicative vote will then result in something like 230 / 127 to Rishi, and then it is over to members.
I think it will be very hard though for the members to flout the clear direction of the PCP.
In that scenario, if Rishi doesn't lend Penny 50 votes in return for her then dropping out and getting the Cabinet post of her choice, then he is a complete pillock and deserves to lose again.
That’s a very good point. If Rishi does have spare he is a fool if he doesn’t bring Penny through with him.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Those are poor numbers for Boris.
Happy to continue with my lay of him at current odds for now.
Guido has him in the 60s, but take that with a pinch of salt given 15 or so of those are “A Mystery MP On The Committee For Widget Affordability” types.
According to Guido, Ben Wallace is backing BJ - I think that endorsement will have disproportionate weight.
His old mate saying he's "leaning towards him" but that he still has "questions to answer" will carry disproportionate weight? Doubt it.
I knew 3 future MP's at Uni. One was Chris Pincher and another was Chris Mathieson. The third is not male, nor called Chris, nor mired in sexual scandal
isn't there a 'yet' missing from the end of that sentence?
Congratulations on surviving to half term btw. Hope it is going as well as it can in the current mindless shitshow that is the National Education System.
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
There's an interesting irony here. Europe was meant to be the issue that destroyed the Tories. However the immediate political impact (of Brexit) was the opposite. It destroyed Labour and delivered the Tories a new electoral coalition and a landslide GE win. But now as the deeper effects seep through it would appear - as happens quite often in life - that the first answer was correct. It's destroying the Tories.
I don't think this is the case. My view is that however it worked out Johnson was going to make a run for leader after Cameron and probably going to win. The chaos we see now stems not from Brexit but from Johnson as PM and the way he has split the party. My view is that split was inevitable no matter what the referendum result because of the nature of both the Tory party and Johnson himself.
Blaming Brexit for the current situation is just a means for the irreconciled to try and reinforce their position. It is meaningless and only serves to deflect from the real cause of the problems which is the Tory party itself. (Though to be fair the same applies to Labour, they just aren't in a position to screw the country as yet).
Henry Mance @henrymance · 1h absolutely superb. calling MPs *from his holiday* to assure them he has changed
Where’s he meant to be?
Can’t blame him for being in the Caribbean writing his memoirs where it’s 30C and sunny rather than Herne Hill where it’s << checks notes >> 15C, overcast, and lightly drizzling
*stares out at beautiful cloudless Moab Utah desert sky*
Er, he could be doing the job he's fucking paid to do??
Working From Holiday.
I suspect rather he's relaxing in the Main.
Nice pun EXCEPT that "Spanish Main" referred - oddly enough - to the Mainland, not the Islands.
UK includes two island Mainlands.
But the Spanish Main ain't either of the 'em - neither the one or the 1/5 of the other.
This actually is interesting and news to me, I had always rather gormlessly assumed Spanish Main = mainland Spain.
I was, as I am fond of pointing out at any opportunity, on Mustique at the same time as Bojo, Xmas 2019. Disappointed to note no RN guard ship in the offing.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
Boris winning would just result in further parliamentary chaos and leave the Tories floundering.
It would be funny, but a very poor outcome for the country.
I suspect even the polling companies would tell you their surveys have limited usefulness* in extreme scenarios like this one. They certainly aren’t GE predictors.
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
We can hope.
My other bit of copium is the way that Boris's Club Mad backers were out of the blocks really quickly- he hasn't collected that many more names today. Maybe enough people do remember what it was like three months ago.
It's hype, Stuart, he's not coming back. I give you my word on it. Personal guarantee.
I knew 3 future MP's at Uni. One was Chris Pincher and another was Chris Mathieson. The third is not male, nor called Chris, nor mired in sexual scandal
Just a point of correction on the thread header - the “star chambers” and detailed discussions come later. To the extent the spending plans are changing I suspect the 31 October statement will set out the top level “spending envelope” and that doesn’t require as much discussion.
Look back at previous SRs and you’ll see there’s an initial Treasury statement on an over all envelope, then later on the actual detailed departmental plans. It’s easier for a Cabinet to nod through the former because they all expect to be the exception during the latter:
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
IF your heading to higher elevation this weekend, worth checking to make sure you've got tire chains in the trunk of your rental.
Yes, I spent some time in Utah some years ago at about this time of year. Within less than an hour's drive from the heat around the Salt Lake, we were up in the snow.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
On the subject of Boris, I think he has a higher floor than Truss (or Morduant), and I would be surprised to see the Conservatives poll less than 30% in the General with him in charge.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
In October 2021 the Tories polled as high as 41%.
In the month before Johnson was forced to resign the highest the Tories polled was 35%.
It's striking given how much the polls have moved since then that he lost relatively little support despite the crises he created.
The Tories were polling about 40% last autumn, since when Labour has been in the lead. The Tories were consistently about 32% this year until the Truss disaster, so a loss of one fifth of Tory support under Johnson. Current floor hard to determine due to volatility, but looks to be low twenties.
Questions. Can Johnson win back the support he previously lost? Seems unlikely. Can he stabilise support above current wipeout levels? Possibly. Is he more likely to stabilise support than another Tory leader? Not necessarily.
One obvious concern for the Tories is that the polls have got even worse since Truss resigned.
Given the optics of the Trussterfuck, that is hardly a surprise.
They can't hope to get better until there is a talented Cabinet team appointed by a pragmatic PM quietly getting on with the job for a few months.
That is still one hell of a challenge considering where they are and what they have to hand. But they are going to have to work bloody hard to show they deserve to be back in the 20's, nevermind the 30s.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
There's an interesting irony here. Europe was meant to be the issue that destroyed the Tories. However the immediate political impact (of Brexit) was the opposite. It destroyed Labour and delivered the Tories a new electoral coalition and a landslide GE win. But now as the deeper effects seep through it would appear - as happens quite often in life - that the first answer was correct. It's destroying the Tories.
I don't think this is the case. My view is that however it worked out Johnson was going to make a run for leader after Cameron and probably going to win. The chaos we see now stems not from Brexit but from Johnson as PM and the way he has split the party. My view is that split was inevitable no matter what the referendum result because of the nature of both the Tory party and Johnson himself.
Blaming Brexit for the current situation is just a means for the irreconciled to try and reinforce their position. It is meaningless and only serves to deflect from the real cause of the problems which is the Tory party itself. (Though to be fair the same applies to Labour, they just aren't in a position to screw the country as yet).
I'm not saying Brexit had to lead to this. It didn't. But it has - by the mechanism of delivering political power and status to all the wrong people.
So the morons who got Truss into power are now trying to get Boris back. Isn't that the definition of insanity?
I actually think Liz Truss might feel a lot better in a few months once it becomes clear that the current group of Tories are ungovernable as a single unit because of the Boris backers.
How quickly the downfall was is definitely on her, but based on what we've seen over the last year I doubt even Rishi will be able to avoid Boris supporting backbenchers in open warfare with government policy and more U turns.
The outcome should Boris win is worse of course with a real risk of splitting the party entirely.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
I have decided, very belatedly, that I am indeed Ready For Rishi.
I have a soft spot for Penny. I think she deserves a great office. I worry her being promoted now will push another relatively-unknown figure into Number 10 who the public won’t back and MPs won’t respect. She needs more senior experience, and profile raising.
On the subject of Boris, I think he has a higher floor than Truss (or Morduant), and I would be surprised to see the Conservatives poll less than 30% in the General with him in charge.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
In October 2021 the Tories polled as high as 41%.
In the month before Johnson was forced to resign the highest the Tories polled was 35%.
It's striking given how much the polls have moved since then that he lost relatively little support despite the crises he created.
The Tories were polling about 40% last autumn, since when Labour has been in the lead. The Tories were consistently about 32% this year until the Truss disaster, so a loss of one fifth of Tory support under Johnson. Current floor hard to determine due to volatility, but looks to be low twenties.
Questions. Can Johnson win back the support he previously lost? Seems unlikely. Can he stabilise support above current wipeout levels? Possibly. Is he more likely to stabilise support than another Tory leader? Not necessarily.
One obvious concern for the Tories is that the polls have got even worse since Truss resigned.
Given the optics of the Trussterfuck, that is hardly a surprise.
They can't hope to get better until there is a talented Cabinet team appointed by a pragmatic PM quietly getting on with the job for a few months.
That is still one hell of a challenge considering where they are and what they have to hand. But they are going to have to work bloody hard to show they deserve to be back in the 20's, nevermind the 30s.
I wouldn’t want the job for myself, but if my fellow posters were to conclude it was best for the country….
I’ll only do it from the Lords though, and my plans for growth do involve invading France.
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
Utah is special, but I prefer Arizona. Painted Desert, Meteor Crater, Desert Museum, that canyon (obs) and the wild country along the Mexican border. Guy there showed me his large collection of hummingbird feeders - dozens of them smashed to bits, cuz the bears like a sweet drink....
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
There's an interesting irony here. Europe was meant to be the issue that destroyed the Tories. However the immediate political impact (of Brexit) was the opposite. It destroyed Labour and delivered the Tories a new electoral coalition and a landslide GE win. But now as the deeper effects seep through it would appear - as happens quite often in life - that the first answer was correct. It's destroying the Tories.
I don't think this is the case. My view is that however it worked out Johnson was going to make a run for leader after Cameron and probably going to win. The chaos we see now stems not from Brexit but from Johnson as PM and the way he has split the party. My view is that split was inevitable no matter what the referendum result because of the nature of both the Tory party and Johnson himself.
Blaming Brexit for the current situation is just a means for the irreconciled to try and reinforce their position. It is meaningless and only serves to deflect from the real cause of the problems which is the Tory party itself. (Though to be fair the same applies to Labour, they just aren't in a position to screw the country as yet).
I'm not saying Brexit had to lead to this. It didn't. But it has - by the mechanism of delivering political power and status to all the wrong people.
I understand your argument but my view is that the power was going to end up with these people anyway given both their natures and the nature of the party. Just as Corbyn ended up leading Labour. The radicals are better at seizing power than the moderates in both parties. What they are not good at - for obvious reasons - is either keeping it or using it effectively whilst they have it.
On the subject of Boris, I think he has a higher floor than Truss (or Morduant), and I would be surprised to see the Conservatives poll less than 30% in the General with him in charge.
But I also think he is - to some extent - damaged goods. And his return will coincide with rising energy bills for millions of households.
So: floor of 30% in the GE, ceiling of 40%. Will do better in the North than the South.
In October 2021 the Tories polled as high as 41%.
In the month before Johnson was forced to resign the highest the Tories polled was 35%.
It's striking given how much the polls have moved since then that he lost relatively little support despite the crises he created.
The Tories were polling about 40% last autumn, since when Labour has been in the lead. The Tories were consistently about 32% this year until the Truss disaster, so a loss of one fifth of Tory support under Johnson. Current floor hard to determine due to volatility, but looks to be low twenties.
Questions. Can Johnson win back the support he previously lost? Seems unlikely. Can he stabilise support above current wipeout levels? Possibly. Is he more likely to stabilise support than another Tory leader? Not necessarily.
One obvious concern for the Tories is that the polls have got even worse since Truss resigned.
Given the optics of the Trussterfuck, that is hardly a surprise.
They can't hope to get better until there is a talented Cabinet team appointed by a pragmatic PM quietly getting on with the job for a few months.
That is still one hell of a challenge considering where they are and what they have to hand. But they are going to have to work bloody hard to show they deserve to be back in the 20's, nevermind the 30s.
35% of voters prefer Johnson as PM to Starmer and 34% prefer Sunak as PM to Starmer however so either should see a bounce.
Even if 48% prefer Starmer as PM to Johnson still and 43% prefer Starmer as PM to Sunak
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but we're still talking about nominations, not votes. Is there any reason to think anything like all the Tory MPs will nominate someone?
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
A fine idea - until 340 of them take up the offer!
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Big ask of the Lab candidates in what look on current projections to be rock solid Lab gains
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
A fine idea - until 340 of them take up the offer!
Gauke suggests restructing it to 10k majorities plus
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
A fine idea - until 340 of them take up the offer!
Gauke suggests restructing it to 10k majorities plus
The last thing Starmer needs to allow himself to be presented as is engaging in any parliamentary or democratic game playing. His answer to everything needs to be that he wants a Labour majority and to beat all comers.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Labour dont want a 400 seat majority, it probably necessitates a split in order for there to be a functioning opposition.
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
I loathe the Kwarteng / Truss plan to cap per KwH rates - it's enormously expensive and it dents the price signal.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Labour dont want a 400 seat majority, it probably necessitates a split in order for there to be a functioning opposition.
And they won’t get one (well Baldwin more or less did so I suppose it’s possible). There will be reversion to the mean and Starmer just needs to worry about winning Labour seats and ignore the rest. I’m sure he’s doing just that.
What should happen to underpin Hunt's ongoing attempts to maintain the UK financial system stability is for all 3 candidates (or 2 if Mordant doesn't make it) to have a meeting with Hunt, get the outline or even the detail of what he is planning and state publicly that whoever wins will maintain Hunt's proposals at least until there has been time to assess their effectiveness or otherwise. I know this would be an extraordinary thing to do but these are extraordinary times and for the next few months stability and reassurance to the markets seems to me to be the key.
Any candidate who is not able to make that pledge for the good of the country probably shouldn't be let near No.10
Yes, something like that is needed. Alternatively, especially if the winner is Sunak, I suppose they could postpone the budget for a short time, say a week or two, without spooking the markets, if they handled the announcement carefully. That would mean the new PM could form the replacement government and then give a stronger political stamp of approval to the financial plans.
The main thing will be to convince the markets that there's a credible plan, that they are committed to it, and that they can deliver it. Clearly none of this is ideal, and it could easily be blown up by on-going political chaos.
The challenges here are immense. The most fundamental change between Kwarteng and Hunt was not really the tax changes but the recognition that if we were going to be subsidising everyone's gas bill this winter the (unknown) cost of that had to be offset by cuts elsewhere rather than being stuck on the credit card. We are about to divert tens of billions from social security, defence, education, local government and possibly even social care to paying for gas.
On one view we have gone from one extreme to the other. KK thought he could just ignore the cost of his 2 year scheme and carry on spending on everything else regardless. That was reckless. Hunt is looking to recoup the costs of the truncated scheme over a very short period of time. That is arguably unnecessarily severe but you can see why he had to do something like that to assuage the markets.
The gas scheme will end for the vast majority of the population and businesses in 6 months time: we simply cannot afford this redirection of resources. All we can hope is that by then gas prices are much lower.
I loathe the Kwarteng / Truss plan to cap per KwH rates - it's enormously expensive and it dents the price signal.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
The correlation isn't as you describe. Within each income band, there are heavier users (say 4 kids) who will get the same cheque as single person households.
Endorsements 68 - Rishi Sunak 36 - Boris Johnson 17 - Penny Mordaunt
If this is right, it suggests Boris may not have the momentum he needs, and that in turn explains why Penny has confirmed she's standing. She would have a decent chance if Boris decides that the party is not yet ready for his Second Coming.
Currently 71/40/18 according to the Telegraph.
Scaling that up to 357, that would give around 196 Rishi, 110 Boris, 50 Penny. We might yet see a Rishi coronation on Monday.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but we're still talking about nominations, not votes. Is there any reason to think anything like all the Tory MPs will nominate someone?
You are right of course, but it's the best indication of votes we've got.
That is still a big bounce for all of them compared to the 19% the Tories are on on the main poll.
Indeed Sunak would slash the current projected over 400 seat Labour majority into a hung parliament on the new boundaries if the preferred PM figures convert to voting intention, albeit with Labour still most seats
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
IF your heading to higher elevation this weekend, worth checking to make sure you've got tire chains in the trunk of your rental.
Yes, I spent some time in Utah some years ago at about this time of year. Within less than an hour's drive from the heat around the Salt Lake, we were up in the snow.
Several years ago, very sad case in Oregon, around same time of year, young couple with a baby decided to drive from the Willamette Valley across the Coastal Range to the Coast. Didn't have a clue, were just following their car's GPS.
Ended up stuck in the snow (which they had NOT expected) up a forest service road.
No cell signal, no tire chains, light clothing, bag of potato chips or suchlike. Kept running the car engine at intervals to keep warm, but only had half a tank of gas (or less). After a day or so, with the gas tank approaching empty, the husband decided to try hiking out to get help.
Around that time, authorities heard from friend of these folks that they were missing and likely up in the mountains somewhere. Rescuers managed to find the car, with mother and baby cold, hungry but alive. Then they followed the tracks the father had made. And found him, frozen to death.
He should NOT have driven into the mountains with zero preparation. And should NOT have left the car. But if YOU'd been in his shoes, with zero idea if anyone was even trying to find you, with your wife and child shivering, with no food - what would YOU have done?
That is still a big bounce for all of them compared to the 19% the Tories are on on the main poll.
Indeed Sunak would slash the current projected over 400 seat Labour majority into a hung parliament on the new boundaries if the preferred PM figures convert to voting intention, albeit with Labour still most seats
Yup. Johnson and Sunak will look at that and think “I could turn this round”.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Labour dont want a 400 seat majority, it probably necessitates a split in order for there to be a functioning opposition.
And they won’t get one (well Baldwin more or less did so I suppose it’s possible). There will be reversion to the mean and Starmer just needs to worry about winning Labour seats and ignore the rest. I’m sure he’s doing just that.
McDonald was the Prime Minister when the National Government won 556-73 in 1931. Not Baldwin. He was leader when their majority was reduced to 'only' 240 in 1935.
Dave must bitterly regret that Brexit-referendum decision. It was all done to stave off Nigel Farage. Okay, so the Tories might have suffered a few defections or had a few years in opposition because of him, but that is nothing compared to the Tory horrors that single decision unleashed. We're talking the death of a major political party here.
His error was not in holding the referendum, which absolutely was needed - there was no democratic consent for all the changes beginning with Maastricht including especially Lisbon (which Brown signed despite a specific manifesto commitment against it).
His errors were:
(a) treating the referendum as something to be won for Remain, rather than as somethign to settle the EU issue one way or the other; and (b) flouncing immediately after it.
No it was holding a referendum because it wasn't an issue that should be decided that way because people don't know what the outcome would be, and hence we've spent six years struggling to make sense of what it should mean, and will probably spend decades in a constant state of argument over it. If he thought leaving was a good idea and/or popular he should've put it in an election manifesto and explained the consequences, how it should work and so on so people could make an informed choice. If he thought it was a terrible idea (as it seems he did) he shouldn't have promised that and made the argument that we were better off in. Instead, the problem was he took the coward's option of spending most of his time EU-bashing because it was politically convenient and helped with party management, while knowing full well that he thought the benefits outweighed costs, and ran on a referendum promise as a cop out that allowed him to face both ways by flaunting his Euroscepticism while hoping voters would save him from its consequences.
No, that doesn't work - the membership question was always going to have to be resolved by referendum, mixing it in with a general election wouldn't have flown.
The problems come entirely from him so strongly taking one side and then losing. If he had either put EEA on the ballot paper as a subsidiary question (Q2: If Q1 = Leave, then EEA = Yes/No?) or allowed the government to put forward a position on what Leave meant, then the vast majority of problems that arose wouldn't have done.
But he didn't want to settle the issue fairly, he just wanted to win.
That would have been better than what happened but still would have created problems. As leavers would have complained they had been kept in the EEA by remainers answering that way and thus it wasn't 'real' Brexit. Remainers would also argue that if we ended up in EEA it was because it offered a 'soft' way of leaving that wasn't actually a good option. It would have also been ludicrous to remain neutral given it would in effect decide his government's economic policies. Referendums work for questions with relatively minor and certain impacts that require a certain amount of moral legitimacy so those with moral objections get the chance to register them, and if there's enough, reject them. Or if offering a specific direction to a government to sign or not sign something. Labour should/could of on Lisbon and maybe lanced the boil. Deciding such an all encompassing choice over the direction of the country should be part of a manifesto so people can judge it alongside your other plans and if they add up. If they're plausible and popular and you are elected, then great, you have a mandate to do it. If not, then tough. Leavers always favoured an EU referendum because they knew that they had a proposition that was relatively popular in the abstract in being against something - you could lump any grievance about EU membership into 'Leave' - but much less so when put forward as a positive proposal such as say EEA (not 'leave' enough), a Singapore on Thames type approach (lots of voters don't want the public spending squeeze/tax cuts for wealthy accompanying it) or a Faragist pull up the drawbridge approach (massively economically damaging and a turn off for those with more liberal views). So it was the only way, they thought, of getting out, as no party would risk putting a Brexit plan likely to alienate a group of their voters in a manifesto, even though in terms of governance, that was how should've got a mandate.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Labour dont want a 400 seat majority, it probably necessitates a split in order for there to be a functioning opposition.
And they won’t get one (well Baldwin more or less did so I suppose it’s possible). There will be reversion to the mean and Starmer just needs to worry about winning Labour seats and ignore the rest. I’m sure he’s doing just that.
McDonald was the Prime Minister when the National Government won 556-73 in 1931. Not Baldwin. He was leader when their majority was reduced to 'only' 240 in 1935.
Ah, yes, sorry my memory can be crap. If you call the former “Labour led” (I know it wasn’t really) and the latter “Tory led” then I doubt anyone will ever beat that swing in seats!
Leon, enjoy the sunshine in Utah while you can - cold front with rain heading your way this weekend.
UGH
I was at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City a few years back, where we had two feet of champagne powder overnight - night after night.
Somehow, the place coped.
Sure, I’ve just used to unbroken sun and pure blue skies for ten days. The US west/SW has such a lovely climate at this time of year
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
IF your heading to higher elevation this weekend, worth checking to make sure you've got tire chains in the trunk of your rental.
Yes, I spent some time in Utah some years ago at about this time of year. Within less than an hour's drive from the heat around the Salt Lake, we were up in the snow.
Several years ago, very sad case in Oregon, around same time of year, young couple with a baby decided to drive from the Willamette Valley across the Coastal Range to the Coast. Didn't have a clue, were just following their car's GPS.
Ended up stuck in the snow (which they had NOT expected) up a forest service road.
No cell signal, no tire chains, light clothing, bag of potato chips or suchlike. Kept running the car engine at intervals to keep warm, but only had half a tank of gas (or less). After a day or so, with the gas tank approaching empty, the husband decided to try hiking out to get help.
Around that time, authorities heard from friend of these folks that they were missing and likely up in the mountains somewhere. Rescuers managed to find the car, with mother and baby cold, hungry but alive. Then they followed the tracks the father had made. And found him, frozen to death.
He should NOT have driven into the mountains with zero preparation. And should NOT have left the car. But if YOU'd been in his shoes, with zero idea if anyone was even trying to find you, with your wife and child shivering, with no food - what would YOU have done?
Shitty Film Details! @ShitFilmDetails · 23h With principal photography for "Love Actually"(2001) lasting 2 months, actor Hugh Grant played the British Prime Minister longer than some actual British Prime Ministers.
bad news indeed - the tesco meal deal has gone up for the first time in ten years - inflation is still here with us
I might have to start always selecting one of the triple sarnies and a grab bag of crisps rather than a smaller one to feel like I’m beating the system and sticking it to the man.
Evening all. David Gauke obviously reads pb as he was suggesting my idea from yesterday of Lab/LD standing aside for Tory MP no confidence voters who stand as indies in the ensuing GE.
Why on earth would Starmer agree to any of these wheezes? He is best advised to sit tight, criticise the “chaos”, keep demanding an election, and think about his choice of No 10 curtains in early 2025. He wants maximum Labour MPs, nothing else.
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
Labour dont want a 400 seat majority, it probably necessitates a split in order for there to be a functioning opposition.
Shitty Film Details! @ShitFilmDetails · 23h With principal photography for "Love Actually"(2001) lasting 2 months, actor Hugh Grant played the British Prime Minister longer than some actual British Prime Ministers.
Correction, one actual Prime Minister. Good old Liz, she will forever be known as the Quiz Question PM
@vonderburchard In what sounds like a swipe against U.S. push for decoupling from China, Scholz said in Brussels that he wants to maintain close trade ties with Beijing
"The EU prides itself on being a union interested in global trade and it does not side with those who promote deglobalization"
@vonderburchard In what sounds like a swipe against U.S. push for decoupling from China, Scholz said in Brussels that he wants to maintain close trade ties with Beijing
"The EU prides itself on being a union interested in global trade and it does not side with those who promote deglobalization"
Comments
Truss for CoE! What could possibly go wrong?
Somehow, the place coped.
Person / all respondents (net) / Tory voters (net)
Sunak: +3 / +31
Wallace: -6 / +33
Mordaunt: -9 / +26
Johnson: -22 / +69
Braverman: -40 / -12
Gove: -52 / -30
Don't worry though, I won't hate 'ee for pointing it out.
The golden aspens trembling on the red rock slopes, where the elks languidly drink in the beaver lakes. Sigh
Oh sorry, you weren't referring to his weight?
Secondly, I do rather wonder if the "Boris and/or Bust!" Brigade are likely to declare early-ish compared with others. Those who are in the "Not Boris under any circumstances" camp have a choice of candidates.
Amongst all voters though, 43% think Sunak would make a good PM to 34% for Johnson and 26% for Mordaunt
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/21/voting-intention-con-19-lab-56-20-21-oct-2022
Johnson (35%) vs Starmer (48%)
Sunak (34%) vs Starmer (43%)
Mordaunt (28%) vs Starmer (43%)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/21/britons-more-likely-see-sunak-good-pm-johnson-or-m https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1583492744693309440/photo/1
My other bit of copium is the way that Boris's Club Mad backers were out of the blocks really quickly- he hasn't collected that many more names
today. Maybe enough people do remember what it was like three months ago.
No doubt the Conservatives have seen a collapse in support but these polls / seat projections are starting to get as daft as a Liz/Kwasi budget...
One was Chris Pincher and another was Chris Mathieson.
The third is not male, nor called Chris, nor mired in sexual scandal
He now has 4 Cabinet Ministers - Mogg, Wallace, Clarke, Sharma.
If he gets the rest of the Cabinet (except Hunt and Shapps) + those who attend Cabinet that will give him another 20 ish.
You going for that bad sex writing award again? 😀
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
https://twitter.com/telegraphworld/status/1583421386059501568?s=61&t=VWkh91lnXkOw5HdH7eJFRQ
Congratulations on surviving to half term btw. Hope it is going as well as it can in the current mindless shitshow that is the National Education System.
Blaming Brexit for the current situation is just a means for the irreconciled to try and reinforce their position. It is meaningless and only serves to deflect from the real cause of the problems which is the Tory party itself. (Though to be fair the same applies to Labour, they just aren't in a position to screw the country as yet).
37%(!) lead from a very well established company.
Boris winning would just result in further parliamentary chaos and leave the Tories floundering.
It would be funny, but a very poor outcome for the country.
I was, as I am fond of pointing out at any opportunity, on Mustique at the same time as Bojo, Xmas 2019. Disappointed to note no RN guard ship in the offing.
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1583449020756004865
*They might not use that word.
Look back at previous SRs and you’ll see there’s an initial Treasury statement on an over all envelope, then later on the actual detailed departmental plans. It’s easier for a Cabinet to nod through the former because they all expect to be the exception during the latter:
Some great performances - think my fav is Anne Bancroft as Lady Randolph. Also Robert Shaw as Lord Randolph.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
They can't hope to get better until there is a talented Cabinet team appointed by a pragmatic PM quietly getting on with the job for a few months.
That is still one hell of a challenge considering where they are and what they have to hand. But they are going to have to work bloody hard to show they deserve to be back in the 20's, nevermind the 30s.
How quickly the downfall was is definitely on her, but based on what we've seen over the last year I doubt even Rishi will be able to avoid Boris supporting backbenchers in open warfare with government policy and more U turns.
The outcome should Boris win is worse of course with a real risk of splitting the party entirely.
I have a soft spot for Penny. I think she deserves a great office. I worry her being promoted now will push another relatively-unknown figure into Number 10 who the public won’t back and MPs won’t respect. She needs more senior experience, and profile raising.
The less said about the other one the better.
(I’m still not voting Tory though).
I’ll only do it from the Lords though, and my plans for growth do involve invading France.
Even if 48% prefer Starmer as PM to Johnson still and 43% prefer Starmer as PM to Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/21/voting-intention-con-19-lab-56-20-21-oct-2022
Actually if I was Labour I’d start some serious re-vetting of candidates way down the list of expected wins now. Still time to bin a few.
We would be much better off calculating its cost, dividing it by 70 million people, and send it as direct cheques to people. (Indeed, I'd gross it up 40% and then make it taxable, so that it poorer people - who spend more of their income on energy - benefit most.)
That would mean that people would have the choice: hmmm, I could spend the money on gas/electric, or I could turn the thermostat down, the lights off, and spend it on going down the pub instead. It would reduce demand by a greater extent, and would cushion people just as much.
We need to get back to delivering on the @conservatives manifesto we were elected on
https://twitter.com/aloksharma_rdg/status/1583492425703563264
Look at the "Don't Knows": 39% Mordaunt, 17% Sunak, 9% Johnson.
These type of polls really just survey the extent to which the politician is known to the mass public.
Unbelievable as it may seem to us, some have no idea who Sunak is and many (probably a majority) have no idea who Mordaunt is.
Indeed Sunak would slash the current projected over 400 seat Labour majority into a hung parliament on the new boundaries if the preferred PM figures convert to voting intention, albeit with Labour still most seats
Ended up stuck in the snow (which they had NOT expected) up a forest service road.
No cell signal, no tire chains, light clothing, bag of potato chips or suchlike. Kept running the car engine at intervals to keep warm, but only had half a tank of gas (or less). After a day or so, with the gas tank approaching empty, the husband decided to try hiking out to get help.
Around that time, authorities heard from friend of these folks that they were missing and likely up in the mountains somewhere. Rescuers managed to find the car, with mother and baby cold, hungry but alive. Then they followed the tracks the father had made. And found him, frozen to death.
He should NOT have driven into the mountains with zero preparation. And should NOT have left the car. But if YOU'd been in his shoes, with zero idea if anyone was even trying to find you, with your wife and child shivering, with no food - what would YOU have done?
Shitty Film Details!
@ShitFilmDetails
·
23h
With principal photography for "Love Actually"(2001) lasting 2 months, actor Hugh Grant played the British Prime Minister longer than some actual British Prime Ministers.
Capitalism and efficient supply chains can, at times, deliver real benefits for those on low wages.
Now nearly £4 unless you play their creepy games with the club card bollox.
Inflation at the low-cost end of things is brutal. I recon inflation on my weekly shop is running at 25%+
Although being a cheapskate is somewhat of a choice for me. Many have no choice.
In what sounds like a swipe against U.S. push for decoupling from China, Scholz said in Brussels that he wants to maintain close trade ties with Beijing
"The EU prides itself on being a union interested in global trade and it does not side with those who promote deglobalization"
https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1583444073356046337
What happened 46 years go?