The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour
Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that
voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour
supporting SKS Labour Party
Presumably these ‘socialists’ will, like you, be voting for Bozza Johnno?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
A comma for a decimal point is an easy mistake to make.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Owls who?
Owls should of course be in Parliament; it's where they belong.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Owls who?
Owls should of course be in Parliament; it's where they belong.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Owls who?
Owls should of course be in Parliament; it's where they belong.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
I am a Socialist
I am angry with the factional Anti Socialist Party anti Labour Party SKS has turned Labour into
I am liberated into not needing to support Labour for the sake of it.
It will pass when Labour becomes the Democratic Socialist Party it claims to be.
Until then I wont be voting Labour while I have a hole in my arse.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Also greater London Mayor one way for (say) Labour supporters to vote against Labour, to register protest or just demonstrate some independence - and NOT affect their vote for Parliament.
Note that in US, three of the most Democratic states in the Union have tradition of frequently electing Republicans as governors: Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont. One reason: to have someone reasonable who is NOT a Democrat keeping an eye on legislatures dominated by Dems.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
Why would the massive ego of Boris accept Home Secretary or even Foreign "dodgy meetings with the KGB" Secretary again? When the degenerate scum and villainy that is Tory members will elect him PM again?
They may not and he is better off being Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government facing tough economic decisions of tax rises or spending cuts than a fag end PM who likely loses the next general election which would end his career
You and I both know that members will elect Boris. The man with the mandate. The man who delivered their Brexit. The man who had the leadership stolen from him by the Tofo-eating wokeraty that is the parliamentary party.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
You see everything through the lens of the left v centrist split in Labour, don't you?
You just KNOW some MPs will be saving the big reveal of their support for some of the Sunday papers to make themselves feel important.
My dickwad MP is David Duguid. On Wednesday he was singing the praises of Truss having nailed down the triple lock. The day after Truss and her pledge was gone.
He will back Johnson because he is so dumb that if he says the sky is blue you need to check whether it is or not.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour
Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that
voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour
supporting SKS Labour Party
Presumably these ‘socialists’ will, like you, be voting for Bozza Johnno?
Presumably like me not voting for either of the neo Liberal non Socialist Parties.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
You just KNOW some MPs will be saving the big reveal of their support for some of the Sunday papers to make themselves feel important.
My dickwad MP is David Duguid. On Wednesday he was singing the praises of Truss having nailed down the triple lock. The day after Truss and her pledge was gone.
He will back Johnson because he is so dumb that if he says the sky is blue you need to check whether it is or not.
Especially in Doric-land with an easterly wind. Or a northerly, or westerly, or south-westerly.
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
It would be f***ing hilarious if the parliamentary Tory party ran its nomination process as if it were an election to membership at a gentlemen's club, but surely since it's a nomination procedure it won't be secret.
I understood the nom process is secret apart from nominator and seconder.
The vote itself is always secret in Tory leadership elections
I believed that was the case but couldn't see it confirmed anywhere for this contest and I know that at least some of the rules have been changed this time around.
This doesn't work in Johnson's favour as he is the only candidate where I can see an incentive for an MP to appear to support him to appease the local members without following through. I believe it was WilliamGlenn who was claiming yesterday that some MPs were being threatened with deselection if they didn't support Boris.
It wouldn't entirely surprise me if Johnson got significantly fewer votes than expected when it comes to the first round of voting. Could just be wishful thinking on my part..
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
Read what a Labour membership card says.
I’m not a member, so don’t have one. Am I wrong in my statement. (Genuine question). And remember the Nazis weren’t really socialists, and I’m not certain the snp are a nationalist party either.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour
Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that
voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour
supporting SKS Labour Party
Presumably these ‘socialists’ will, like you, be voting for Bozza Johnno?
Presumably like me not voting for either of the neo Liberal non Socialist Parties.
As I understand it there are plenty of scab groups you can vote for, many under the laughable "left unity" banner.
Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on and the Labour Party won't notice the departure of the trot vote as it will be too busy hoovering up votes from basically everyone else.
I do understand though. Socialism as a struggle. Where there has to be awful things happening to the working class so that you can educate them politically. So it's awful when Labour win power which is why you work so hard to ensure they don't.
If the coalition does fracture (and Salvini is also close to Orban and Putin), then Ms Meloni will be looking for new new partners.
Or new Italian elections. Which would be terrifying for FI and LN, because they wouldn't stand a chance in the FPTP portion without a formal coalition.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
Read what a Labour membership card says.
I’m not a member, so don’t have one. Am I wrong in my statement. (Genuine question). And remember the Nazis weren’t really socialists, and I’m not certain the snp are a nationalist party either.
The Labour party retains some rather 19th century stuff.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Bit of a plus, actually. The Corb's have already left the tent and have been pissing on it freely for years.
The the hard Left rail (as they have a perfect right to do) against Starmer, the more they help reassure swing voters who are NOT into another chorus of The Internationale, that it is indeed OK to vote for Labour in next GE.
Of course, polling shows that millions who've been hard to convince in that direction, are suddenly much more open to the argument. Corbynist defections - and election opponents - will help Starmer and Labour seal the deal.
Could cost a few seats around the edges, but believe gain will exceed the pain.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
There is no way on earth Johnson agrees to be Sunak"s b*tch. Johnson wins PM slot, transfers to a safe seat for GE24 (Chope to the Lords,?)
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour
Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that
voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour
supporting SKS Labour Party
Presumably these ‘socialists’ will, like you, be voting for Bozza Johnno?
Presumably like me not voting for either of the neo Liberal non Socialist Parties.
As I understand it there are plenty of scab groups you can vote for, many under the laughable "left unity" banner.
Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on and the Labour Party won't notice the departure of the trot vote as it will be too busy hoovering up votes from basically everyone else.
I do understand though. Socialism as a struggle. Where there has to be awful things happening to the working class so that you can educate them politically. So it's awful when Labour win power which is why you work so hard to ensure they don't.
Yes me pounding the street for 40 years to get them elected is evidence that I wanted them to lose.
On current odds, I think bet on Boris and lay Rishi. I think BJ will be back, and it will be a disaster, and I wouldn't be surprised by another Tory leadership contest before the next General Election. No idea who wins that one!
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
Labour 28 Conservatives 26 Corbynites 12 Faragists 11 Lib Dems 10 Green 5 SNP 4 PC 1d Pick the bones out of that
Let Plaid have Downing Street.....
Mark, you are au fait with Tory rules, I am struggling to confirm whether the MP ballot is secret or not. Do you know for sure?
Sorry Olly, no idea on this outing.....
Thanks where's HYUFD when you need him!!
The reason I am interested is that someone, rightly IMO, said that MPs are going to come under sustained pressure from the Johnson fanatics in their constituency associations to support him.
If the vote is secret then I think his support might get overstated. He is the only candidate where it would make sense for an MP to send one message to the members and vote differently.
I agree on that - when it comes down to it, easier to lie to your association than live through PM Boris until the Committee of Privileges does for him in early November. That would surely have to lead to an immediate General Election - with the Tories fronted by his Deputy PM - Rees Mogg or Nadine perhaps.
In that situation, the dinosaurs stood a better chance of survival than the Tories.
I also hope Hunt has the balls to stick the boot into Boris over the weekend.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Boris will make the ballot Boris will be defeated by Sunak Boris will win the membership final vote The party splits asunder. General Election.
Pass the popcorn 🍿
If they both are the only candidates in the last 2 Sunak and Johnson likely do a deal, especially if Sunak wins the MPs ballot.
Johnson gets Home or Foreign Secretary with Sunak PM. If Sunak loses the next general election Johnson then in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition if he holds his seat
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Having all that kit is still no guarantee you won't get your arse kicked if you go walkabout with it, eh Vlad?
But it makes people think before starting.
Bit like being a Hells Angel (or similar). When I was young, used to drink at the Gloucester Arms in Oxford. Very quiet pub. Apart from the heavy metal at decent volume. It was full of genuine hard cases (no me or my crowd). No one kicked off, because it would have been Armageddon if anyone did.
Category A prisons - as I can personally attest - are the same. Especially big ones in London with a lot of movement in and out
There is almost zero violence despite the presence of several hundred extremely hard men because, no matter how hard you are, you have no idea if the next guy is known for biting out eyes or has superhuman judo skills (and drinks blood)
It’s the “softer” prisons with longer term cons which are nastier
Tho places like HMP Scrubs are still infinitely scary. Don’t get me wrong
I was a bit surprised to see Alok Sharma coming out in support of Boris. For some reason, I thought he was at the sensible end of Tory MPs.
Shows how little I know.
In vote like this - including scramble for nominations - in addition to obvious factors, plenty of local & personal factors potentially at play. For example, who may control to some degree your local association or your campaign financing or etc.
Even if you aren't susceptible to semi-random abuse via emails, tweets, bricks through the window, you will consider your position re: key party movers & shakers of your immediate acquaintance.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour supporting SKS Labour Party
Starmer must be quaking in his boots at the Corybnites having left with a thirty-point lead.
Owls who?
Owls should of course be in Parliament; it's where they belong.
I thought they were supposed to be in my back garden when Ed delivered them but it was another broken promise.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Was London so different in 2008 compared with 1987? Johnson owed his election in 2008 largely to the fact that Brown's Labour Government had become highly unpopular. It was the same month the Tories gained Crewe & Nantwich following the death of Gwynneth Dunwoody. A year earlier he would have lost to Livingstone.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
Don’t claim to be a socialist. Those days are gone for you. At least for the time being. You just seem angry these days. I hope it passes.
At the point where Labour win a thumping majority and the working people of the country rejoice as we did in 1997, will BJO really be tutting and saying "another Tory government"?
As I understand it, labour are social democrats, not socialists. There is even a socialist Labour Party too. So really, if you are a socialist, it’s fine to not support Starmer party, but maybe choose the real socialist Labour Party instead?
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
I think we should also acknowledge a great failure in diplomacy and policy by NATO. Had America moved a squadron of F14s into Kiev in December 2021 and made clear it would not stand for any incursion, there would almost certainly not have been one. Instead there was all that equivalent bollocks about where on the scale any invasion sat.
Deterrence has a lower cost the earlier in the escalation process you do it. Something I wish would be explained to the Elons in US policy circles.
Er, the US hasn't had any F-14s since 2006. You could have asked the Iranians very nicely, though.
The way things are going for the Russian air force, I think it is highly likely that Iranian F-14s are the next thing to be thrown into the fight.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
All Boris cares about is being in the final 2. He wouldn’t give a monkeys if he was 100 MPs behind, knowing that once it gets to the members, it’s game over for whoever his opponent is.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Those numbers tell me it’ll be Rishi vs Boris. A fight for the soul of the party. Which Boris will win. Mordaunt for some reason just doesn’t seem to be able to get the numbers.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Not sure if any of my fellow PBers are au fait with the London Ringways saga, but interesting politically:
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
The sad truth is that if you really support Boris Johnson you are not a socialist anymore. You should read what he has said about ordinary people, which I am sure you care about.
Equally if I supported a "Socialists fuck off" Labour leader I would not be a Socialist either.
The SKS factional, Socialist hating, hierarchy of racism Party has to fail.
The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. Marxist wingnuts may not feel at home. That's a feature, not a bug.
I’ve fully cashed out of my Boris betting position, for now. I’m moderately green, having tipped him at 16/1 and ridden his price down.
I just, inherently don’t like this kind of betting - on individual decisions people make. Boris, Tory MP’s, unpolled Tory members.
Too many unknowns. Too much potential for inside information to drive the markets. Too much risk of me being the mug against whom the smart money clears up. If Boris wins from here, I’d have made money through luck rather than judgment.
That isn’t the smart way to bet.
Nope. I’m out.
Good luck to those holding active positions.
My only significant positions, now, are on a 2023 election @ ~4.5, and a large throwaway bet on Starmer for next PM at ludicrously long odds.
You just KNOW some MPs will be saving the big reveal of their support for some of the Sunday papers to make themselves feel important.
My dickwad MP is David Duguid. On Wednesday he was singing the praises of Truss having nailed down the triple lock. The day after Truss and her pledge was gone.
He will back Johnson because he is so dumb that if he says the sky is blue you need to check whether it is or not.
If he says it is he’s not often right, certainly at this time of year. And he wouldn’t be right to back Boris either.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
If you are representative of the ‘left’ of the party, they seem pretty unreliable. “Corbyn ousted, boo hoo, I’ll vote for Boris❤️”
It’s like the Bernie Sanders martyrs who copped a strop and decided to stay at home rather than vote against Trump. This left purity test is nauseating . They’d rather facilitate the right if they can’t have their 100% agenda met .
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
Give it a break BJO. Not the greatest fan of Starmar but he is the leader now. Corbyn tried and failed miserably. We need to move on and not look back with bitterness.
Starmer to Socialists
2020 till elected - I am a Socialist
2020 after elected Fuck off
2021 Fuck Off
2022 Fuck Off
2023 Fuck off
2024 vote for me
2025 Ha Ha i meant Fuck off
No chance of me and 100,000's of Socialists voting SKS
Autocorrect sure mangled that digit in your final line.
Dont think so 200k have left the Labour
Party and wouldnt vote for SKS under any circumstance before we start on other Socialists.
I reckon a minimum of 10% of the 12.9m that
voted for Corbyn in 2017 were Socialists and about half of those wont vote for the non Labour
supporting SKS Labour Party
Presumably these ‘socialists’ will, like you, be voting for Bozza Johnno?
Presumably like me not voting for either of the neo Liberal non Socialist Parties.
As I understand it there are plenty of scab groups you can vote for, many under the laughable "left unity" banner.
Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on and the Labour Party won't notice the departure of the trot vote as it will be too busy hoovering up votes from basically everyone else.
I do understand though. Socialism as a struggle. Where there has to be awful things happening to the working class so that you can educate them politically. So it's awful when Labour win power which is why you work so hard to ensure they don't.
Yes me pounding the street for 40 years to get them elected is evidence that I wanted them to lose.
Forde tells you who wanted them to lose.
People like you RP
Yep. That I got a Tory out and a Labour MP in back in 2017 in a seat we couldn't win by being one of the core team who literally wrote the campaign which shows how much I was trying to lose.
"Forde" is code for trots desperate for more Tory government and more misery so that trots can have that self-satisfied smug warmth that comes from being the only socialist in the village.
You have a view. I respect that. But it is a tiny minority view. And the party you spent 40 years in and I 25 years is set to smash the Tories good and proper.
That you find this situation so awful says more about you than it does them. We both left Labour. For different reasons. I will rejoice at the smashing of the Tories, you will mourn.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
All Boris cares about is being in the final 2. He wouldn’t give a monkeys if he was 100 MPs behind, knowing that once it gets to the members, it’s game over for whoever his opponent is.
Perhaps, perhaps, British politics can only move on once Boris has had his second coming, marched up through Sisteron to Paris and finally met his Waterloo in a record general election defeat. Then we get closure.
It took 2019 to kill off the vampire of the thick antisemitic far left. Sometimes you need the judgment of the electorate to close a chapter.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Those numbers tell me it’ll be Rishi vs Boris. A fight for the soul of the party. Which Boris will win.
Right first part, wrong second.
If Sunak wins let's say 2:1 amongst MPs there is no way that Johnson has won the soul of the party. He may win amongst a bunch of decrepit old gammons but that's not where the future of the Conservative Party lies.
But even if Johnson won with those out-of-touch nutters who put Liz Truss in, without the command of Parliament he is toast.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Those numbers tell me it’ll be Rishi vs Boris. A fight for the soul of the party. Which Boris will win. Mordaunt for some reason just doesn’t seem to be able to get the numbers.
Ironically. As every MP and member cries out for a "unity" candidate, she's the one with the best, albeit small, chance of achieving some semblance. So she'll come third out of three in a dysfunctional mess
The absolute effing state of the self-declared socialist Owls backing Boris
As I say the effing state of Centrists wetting themselves about Boris return and expecting they can treat Socialists like shit but still expect them to vote for the perp.
You see everything through the lens of the left v centrist split in Labour, don't you?
No SKS and the majority of the NEC do though
See Forde for more information
Keith is 39 points in the lead. It's over. Move on.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Having all that kit is still no guarantee you won't get your arse kicked if you go walkabout with it, eh Vlad?
But it makes people think before starting.
Bit like being a Hells Angel (or similar). When I was young, used to drink at the Gloucester Arms in Oxford. Very quiet pub. Apart from the heavy metal at decent volume. It was full of genuine hard cases (no me or my crowd). No one kicked off, because it would have been Armageddon if anyone did.
Category A prisons - as I can personally attest - are the same. Especially big ones in London with a lot of movement in and out
There is almost zero violence despite the presence of several hundred extremely hard men because, no matter how hard you are, you have no idea if the next guy is known for biting out eyes or has superhuman judo skills (and drinks blood)
It’s the “softer” prisons with longer term cons which are nastier
Tho places like HMP Scrubs are still infinitely scary. Don’t get me wrong
I've done the tour of HMP Peterhead. Now a museum, it is still terrifying and that's with the "so hard only the SAS will subdue us" prisoners gone.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Those numbers tell me it’ll be Rishi vs Boris. A fight for the soul of the party. Which Boris will win. Mordaunt for some reason just doesn’t seem to be able to get the numbers.
My guess is that a lot of people like her but think only Rishi can stop Boris and that is the priority. They are not wrong.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
All Boris cares about is being in the final 2. He wouldn’t give a monkeys if he was 100 MPs behind, knowing that once it gets to the members, it’s game over for whoever his opponent is.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Not sure if any of my fellow PBers are au fait with the London Ringways saga, but interesting politically:
Thanks for sharing! The always excellent IanVisits has I think touched on some of this. Utterly terrifying. One of the eight lane motorways would have passed within about 200m of our house. The twentieth century obsession with the car was total madness.
Some of you are very quickly forgetting the disastrous situation Liz Truss was in of the geriatric membership support against the members of parliament.
I reckon Johnson will know this and if he sees MPs strongly favouring Sunak I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson pulls out and bides his time.
I just checked the date on my membership and happily I have a vote this time around. My message came through even though I wasn't expecting one. Only by just few days, but I got my membership paid for in time. Will vote for anyone but Boris.
If Rishi doesn't win I fear for the nation and the party, in that order. I think the Tories will end up going the way of the liberal party and be permanently out of power, replaced by a centrist party that listens to voters rather than just a few mad old people that shout loudest at member events.
You just KNOW some MPs will be saving the big reveal of their support for some of the Sunday papers to make themselves feel important.
My dickwad MP is David Duguid. On Wednesday he was singing the praises of Truss having nailed down the triple lock. The day after Truss and her pledge was gone.
He will back Johnson because he is so dumb that if he says the sky is blue you need to check whether it is or not.
A lot of dipsticks coming out for Johnson.
I have already pleaded by email to Alun Cairns' to reject Johnson. I explained to him that if he backs Johnson the Vale goes Labour in 2025, but with Sunak he has a fighting chance. I suspect he will support Johnson.
“America's military must be ready to respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year, the head of the US Navy has said”
If Ukraine had been having yearly parades of hundreds of tanks, zillions of goose stepping troops and some nice mobile nuclear rockets, anyone think that Putin would have tried it on?
Having all that kit is still no guarantee you won't get your arse kicked if you go walkabout with it, eh Vlad?
But it makes people think before starting.
Bit like being a Hells Angel (or similar). When I was young, used to drink at the Gloucester Arms in Oxford. Very quiet pub. Apart from the heavy metal at decent volume. It was full of genuine hard cases (no me or my crowd). No one kicked off, because it would have been Armageddon if anyone did.
Category A prisons - as I can personally attest - are the same. Especially big ones in London with a lot of movement in and out
There is almost zero violence despite the presence of several hundred extremely hard men because, no matter how hard you are, you have no idea if the next guy is known for biting out eyes or has superhuman judo skills (and drinks blood)
It’s the “softer” prisons with longer term cons which are nastier
Tho places like HMP Scrubs are still infinitely scary. Don’t get me wrong
I've done the tour of HMP Peterhead. Now a museum, it is still terrifying and that's with the "so hard only the SAS will subdue us" prisoners gone.
I was there once for a consultation when it was a prison. Not a nice place. Better than the State Hospital though. It’s really scary.
When is anyone ever going to hold Graham Brady Old Lady to account - he’s handled god knows how many leadership elections disastrously now
This guy has always been a fuckwit. Became an MP because of his mother and I’m sure was on the shortlist of “stupidest” MPs at one point. He hasn’t got any smarter (although has probably moved up as the gene pool has deteriorated)
Being married to a Lowther doesn’t hurt in that part of the world
I just checked the date on my membership and happily I have a vote this time around. By just a few days, but I got my membership paid for in time. Will vote for anyone but Boris.
If Rishi doesn't win I fear for the nation and the party, in that order. I think the Tories will end up going the way of the liberal party and be permanently out of power, replaced by a centrist party that listens to voters rather than just a few mad old people that shout loudest at member events.
Glad you have it in that order. I am sick of Tory members and MPs thinking about the party first and then the nation.
Evening all. If Guido is right then Rishi is now very close to the threshold: 94. Boris 67, Mordaunt 25
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Those numbers tell me it’ll be Rishi vs Boris. A fight for the soul of the party. Which Boris will win.
Right first part, wrong second.
If Sunak wins let's say 2:1 amongst MPs there is no way that Johnson has won the soul of the party. He may win amongst a bunch of decrepit old gammons but that's not where the future of the Conservative Party lies.
But even if Johnson won with those out-of-touch nutters who put Liz Truss in, without the command of Parliament he is toast.
The Boris-is-a-winner narrative seems to overlook two things. The candidate he stood against in 2019 literally delivered the worst result his own party had seen since 1936. In other words , he could not have faced an easier opponent. Lab 2022 looks v different to Lab 2019..
He’d already started to lose elections when he was STILL in POWER. North and south. To Lib Dems and Lab. Local and by election. That Boris was the same Boris as the one who won in 2019 and who got chucked out by his own party ..
On the other hand he beat Labour twice in a Labour city and turned around the Brexit vote. He also revived the Tories completely in 2019.
As I always feel I have to caveat these statements, I’m no Boris fan, but it’s deluded to not accept he’s got a track record of winning. And pointing at his midterm results is silly.
Part of why I worry about a Boris return is that I think he could win in 2024, and that would allow the likes of Mogg to run riot.
The Tories have done well in London in earlier elections. Under Thatcher they peaked there in 1987 by winning seats such as Waltham Forest. The GLC had also been Tory controlled under Horace Cutler 1977 - 1981 and prior to that from 1967 - 1973.
A very different London, demographically.
Not sure if any of my fellow PBers are au fait with the London Ringways saga, but interesting politically:
I have the original prospectus for that scheme on my bookshelf
Prince of Wales Road in Kentish Town was earmarked for a 6-lane motorway. After the working class residents had been 'decanted' into brutalist tower blocks a band of hippy squatters took over their homes. One of the front doors was inscribed "the fields are sleeping underneath". A candle in the storm.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
The only deal Johnson would go for is Johnson PM and Sunak CoE. Is Sunak going to go for that? I suspect not.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
No deal please. The destruction of the Conservative Party will be then thankfully assured. And absolutely deserved for bringing this great country to its knees.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
I would agree but will a non leader Boris even be in the next Parliament? And who wants to be LOTO? It’s a crap job. He may well think that this is his last chance.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
The only deal Johnson would go for is Johnson PM and Sunak CoE. Is Sunak going to go for that? I suspect not.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
Boris may hate losing, but he won’t think he will. People like Boris are very convinced of their own brilliance and he’ll be surrounded by people urging him on.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
I think the days of parties going back to tried and failed leaders is past. Many decades ago a party leader could lose a GE and expect to fight the next one. Not now. Lose once and you are done (Corbyn excepted, since he managed to overcome most of his MPs voting against him). If/when the Tories are smashed it will be time for a younger generation. Aaron Bell, Tom Tugendhat etc.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
The only deal Johnson would go for is Johnson PM and Sunak CoE. Is Sunak going to go for that? I suspect not.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
The only deal Johnson would go for is Johnson PM and Sunak CoE. Is Sunak going to go for that? I suspect not.
One argument against Sunak is that Truss has shown how much more demanding the job of PM is than a regular Cabinet job, and he hasn't really been any more tested than she was. His weaknesses as a candidate that were on display during the previous leadership election are still there:
@NewStatesman EXCLUSIVE: In a leaked video, Rishi Sunak boasted to Conservative Party members that he was prepared to take public money out of “deprived urban areas” to help wealthy towns.
There aren't wealthy towns, there are towns with a comparatively high wealthy person count, but still a lorra poor people. Compare, utterly random example, the Isle of Wight, home to a large number of comfortably-off-to-super-rich arseholes, and also the poorest poor population outside Cornwall in the entire country. Perhaps Sunak's point was the poor in "wealthy towns" are discriminated against by thoughtless stereotyping?
The New Statesman came very close to lying in that tweet.
Rishi said in Tunbridge Wells that he changed the funding formulas to make sure that places like there got funding…and then said that under Labour all the funding had gone to “deprived urban areas”. He never said anything about wealthy towns and nor was that what he actually did. He just made sure that deprived rural areas were funded as well as urban ones
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Excellent point. Who are you and what have you done with the old MaxPB?
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
I'll be even more radical: I'm not totally convinced Boris will run.
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
I don't think Johnson will be worried about his MPs. I think this is as simple as him just wanting to be PM again. Its quite possible that it will happen. There is a 'good' scenario, where Hunt remains as chancellor, and his power is somewhat curtailed. But then there is also a 'bad' scenario, where he just picks up from where he left off; Carrie is back running the show, and it goes from disaster to disaster, continuous scandals, losing votes in Parliament etc.
@TheScreamingEagles wonder whether you've got an estimate of ineligible members, I think it's going to be a huge number actually. Just messaged some other people and they also think it could swing the result to Rishi.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
It would very foolish for whoever wins to remove Hunt at this most critical of times
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
Yes, I pointed out yesterday that an online vote would benefit Sunak, who got 43% last time in a more comprehensive vote.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
I could have sworn that you argued strongly against a "substantial windfall tax" when it was proposed by Labour. I assume you are still opposed to it?
Something that needs to be taken into account - thousands of those mad older members have old style memberships, or at least they did when I was last making calls to get renewals. They don't have email addresses and won't be eligible to vote. I don't know how many of them there are but it will be a big number, potentially game changing for Rishi who struggled with the racist old fools last time.
The whole online vote in a few days thing sounds technically possible, but asking for trouble.
Best of all will be if it becomes unnecessary, which is clearly the plan. Though that may need Boris Johnson's ego to be locked away in a safe, which sounds like a good idea but awfully difficult.
(If the final MP round were 240-120, the loser would have to back out, wouldn't they? But what about 200-160? 190-170?)
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Who's going to be CoE on 31 October? There's a danger the balm that Hunt's appointment poured over the markets could evaporate long before then.
It would very foolish for whoever wins to remove Hunt at this most critical of times
Johnson and Hunt doesn't seem a pair that could work. I suspect Sunak would be OK with it, and Mardaunt has already said she would.
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
I noticed in the dreadful borrowing figures for last month Sunak’s energy profits duty brought in all of £0.7bn. The idea is that there are vast profits not already being heavily taxed which are subject to the UK Treasury is a fantasy that Labour use to avoid difficult decisions. The government should not follow suit.
Would Hunt wish to serve under Johnson? Would Johnson want him to continue given that he was one of the 148 to vote adainst him in the June VONC? Johnson is highly vindictive. The weekend papers may prove interesting!
Starmer must be very worried about being caught in the pincer movement played out on here this evening. First we had the 'splits in the Labour Party' hopefuls as Corbyn, Pidcock and their mates take their bats home and stand as independents. Then we had our very own true and pure socialist vowing to prove his point by voting for real levelling-up with Boris.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
Labour have to be favourites for 24 but who do they fear most, Sunak or Johnson, or maybe the markets who clearly will determine the policies of the government for years to come
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
I could have sworn that you argued strongly against a "substantial windfall tax" when it was proposed by Labour. I assume you are still opposed to it?
Not me - indeed I supported Sunak's tax
The only issue I had and still have with labour is that they quote international windfall profits of 170 billion when in truth 40 billion is the UK windfall profits
The 40 bn proposal includes the oil giants but also the suppliers and I understand banks profits as well
Comments
Owls should of course be in Parliament; it's where they belong.
I am angry with the factional Anti Socialist Party anti Labour Party SKS has turned Labour into
I am liberated into not needing to support Labour for the sake of it.
It will pass when Labour becomes the Democratic Socialist Party it claims to be.
Until then I wont be voting Labour while I have a hole in my arse.
Note that in US, three of the most Democratic states in the Union have tradition of frequently electing Republicans as governors: Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont. One reason: to have someone reasonable who is NOT a Democrat keeping an eye on legislatures dominated by Dems.
He will back Johnson because he is so dumb that if he says the sky is blue you need to check whether it is or not.
https://twitter.com/liambyrnemp/status/661514428949487617/photo/1
This doesn't work in Johnson's favour as he is the only candidate where I can see an incentive for an MP to appear to support him to appease the local members without following through. I believe it was WilliamGlenn who was claiming yesterday that some MPs were being threatened with deselection if they didn't support Boris.
It wouldn't entirely surprise me if Johnson got significantly fewer votes than expected when it comes to the first round of voting. Could just be wishful thinking on my part..
Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on and the Labour Party won't notice the departure of the trot vote as it will be too busy hoovering up votes from basically everyone else.
I do understand though. Socialism as a struggle. Where there has to be awful things happening to the working class so that you can educate them politically. So it's awful when Labour win power which is why you work so hard to ensure they don't.
If the coalition does fracture (and Salvini is also close to Orban and Putin), then Ms Meloni will be looking for new new partners.
Or new Italian elections. Which would be terrifying for FI and LN, because they wouldn't stand a chance in the FPTP portion without a formal coalition.
The the hard Left rail (as they have a perfect right to do) against Starmer, the more they help reassure swing voters who are NOT into another chorus of The Internationale, that it is indeed OK to vote for Labour in next GE.
Of course, polling shows that millions who've been hard to convince in that direction, are suddenly much more open to the argument. Corbynist defections - and election opponents - will help Starmer and Labour seal the deal.
Could cost a few seats around the edges, but believe gain will exceed the pain.
Forde tells you who wanted them to lose.
People like you RP
I hope, for the sake of the country, I am wrong.
Shows how little I know.
I get the impression that after the initial right wing spasms of ecstasy, much of the rest of the party is pulling back from the abyss which would be Johnson.
If Rishi wins with MPs by a big margin this cannot go to the membership.
You need to lay Boris, not back him. Money should be on Sunak.
Hoping BBB is at least in the 80s on Guidos SS by tomorrow lunchtime
There is almost zero violence despite the presence of several hundred extremely hard men because, no matter how hard you are, you have no idea if the next guy is known for biting out eyes or has superhuman judo skills (and drinks blood)
It’s the “softer” prisons with longer term cons which are nastier
Tho places like HMP Scrubs are still infinitely scary. Don’t get me wrong
Even if you aren't susceptible to semi-random abuse via emails, tweets, bricks through the window, you will consider your position re: key party movers & shakers of your immediate acquaintance.
Back to the tory leadership race ...
I just, inherently don’t like this kind of betting - on individual decisions people make. Boris, Tory MP’s, unpolled Tory members.
Too many unknowns. Too much potential for inside information to drive the markets. Too much risk of me being the mug against whom the smart money clears up. If Boris wins from here, I’d have made money through luck rather than judgment.
That isn’t the smart way to bet.
Nope. I’m out.
Good luck to those holding active positions.
My only significant positions, now, are on a 2023 election @ ~4.5, and a large throwaway bet on Starmer for next PM at ludicrously long odds.
"Forde" is code for trots desperate for more Tory government and more misery so that trots can have that self-satisfied smug warmth that comes from being the only socialist in the village.
You have a view. I respect that. But it is a tiny minority view. And the party you spent 40 years in and I 25 years is set to smash the Tories good and proper.
That you find this situation so awful says more about you than it does them. We both left Labour. For different reasons. I will rejoice at the smashing of the Tories, you will mourn.
It took 2019 to kill off the vampire of the thick antisemitic far left. Sometimes you need the judgment of the electorate to close a chapter.
If Sunak wins let's say 2:1 amongst MPs there is no way that Johnson has won the soul of the party. He may win amongst a bunch of decrepit old gammons but that's not where the future of the Conservative Party lies.
But even if Johnson won with those out-of-touch nutters who put Liz Truss in, without the command of Parliament he is toast.
A great piece just out by William Hague:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-rishi-sunak-penny-mordaunt-tory-leadership-general-election-follow-live-rvr79nm20
A Johnson win with the old members against Sunak's win with MPs will destroy the Conservative Party.
So she'll come third out of three in a dysfunctional mess
Give you up
Let you down
Run around
Desert you
Make you Cry
Say Goodbye
Tell a lie
Hurt you
Whats not to like
See my point below and William Hague's piece
I reckon Johnson will know this and if he sees MPs strongly favouring Sunak I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson pulls out and bides his time.
You should lay Boris.
If Rishi doesn't win I fear for the nation and the party, in that order. I think the Tories will end up going the way of the liberal party and be permanently out of power, replaced by a centrist party that listens to voters rather than just a few mad old people that shout loudest at member events.
I have already pleaded by email to Alun Cairns' to reject Johnson. I explained to him that if he backs Johnson the Vale goes Labour in 2025, but with Sunak he has a fighting chance. I suspect he will support Johnson.
It goes to show how flimsy Labour's 39 point poll lead is; once these anti-Starmer forces get their act together, we'll be miles behind. Or not, as the case may be.
The test for Johnson is if he gets into the last two and the mps favour Sunak, then they need to agree a deal as anything else would surely see the consevative party fracture into 2
Why? Because Sunak is ahead and he knows it. That may well increase as momentum for a sensible choice builds.
Boris HATES losing and he will not want to be on the losing side against his own MPs.
I reckon he may wait until after the tories lose the next election, pocketing his £150k a speech along the way, and then ride to the rescue when the party is truly down and out.
I may be wrong. It has been known
If he doesn't the markets could finish him this time round.
This morning it was on the 1963 Conservative Leadership selection (Grandees only).
Both fascinating.
Reader's Digest version is,
> George Brown snatched defeat from jaw of quite-possible victory due to poor strategy & tactics thus helping elect Harold Wilson.
> Harold Macmillan stitched up RAB Butler, Reginald Maulding, Quintin Hogg, etc. and set it up for Sir Alec Douglas-Home.
I expect a substantial windfall tax (some say 40bn) will be announced by Hunt now the hapless Truss has been removed, which should close the gap and even provide room for inflation rises on pensions and benefits
Rishi said in Tunbridge Wells that he changed the funding formulas to make sure that places like there got funding…and then said that under Labour all the funding had gone to “deprived urban areas”. He never said anything about wealthy towns and nor was that what he actually did. He just made sure that deprived rural areas were funded as well as urban ones
Who are you and what have you done with the old MaxPB?
I think this is as simple as him just wanting to be PM again. Its quite possible that it will happen.
There is a 'good' scenario, where Hunt remains as chancellor, and his power is somewhat curtailed.
But then there is also a 'bad' scenario, where he just picks up from where he left off; Carrie is back running the show, and it goes from disaster to disaster, continuous scandals, losing votes in Parliament etc.
Best of all will be if it becomes unnecessary, which is clearly the plan. Though that may need Boris Johnson's ego to be locked away in a safe, which sounds like a good idea but awfully difficult.
(If the final MP round were 240-120, the loser would have to back out, wouldn't they? But what about 200-160? 190-170?)
But not enough semi-safe roosts for the demand.
I noticed in the dreadful borrowing figures for last month Sunak’s energy profits duty brought in all of £0.7bn. The idea is that there are vast profits not already being heavily taxed which are subject to the UK Treasury is a fantasy that Labour use to avoid difficult decisions. The government should not follow suit.
The only issue I had and still have with labour is that they quote international windfall profits of 170 billion when in truth 40 billion is the UK windfall profits
The 40 bn proposal includes the oil giants but also the suppliers and I understand banks profits as well