Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

An embarrassment of riches …. or maybe just an embarrassment. – politicalbetting.com

2456710

Comments

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,447
    edited October 2022

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has come out for Boris.
    What an odious creep.

    Doesn't he realise the country might just possibly be sick and tired of Johnson?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    edited October 2022

    Is Stevie G going to be also getting his marching orders this evening?

    The dream of doing an ok job with Aston Villa and then swooping into manage Liverpool when Kloop goes has gone the way as Fizzy Lizzy as the new Thatcher.

    Marsch needs to join him. Leeds were fucking appalling tonight, League One quality at best
    Bring back Boris Bielsa.....
    Anyone, they were tragic. Flapping about at the back constantly and no penetration at all. Like they couldnt be arsed. Bamford is totally shot. They are going down.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    The new compliant from the SNP will be that they have Labour governments imposed on them against their will.
  • Options

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    Baxter isn't a realistic guide though. Con won't get that many.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    The new compliant from the SNP will be that they have Labour governments imposed on them against their will.
    Why not? It'll be true.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,573
    At least some part of the government is still working:

    BREAKING: Britain sanctions Iran for supplying drones to Russia

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1583163682460119040
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857
    ...
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Paragraph 3: mere venom.

    Same header writer, about Mordaunt, in July: '“I have never supported self-ID” she trills.'

    "She trills." Trills. Because trilling is what women do.

    I don't know what we are looking at here, jealousy-inspired misogyny against a younger and more successful woman seems probable, but it doesn't look good or do the site any favours.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    As they are as much a part of the party as MPs, if MPs can't agree a PM that members support then a general election has to occur.

    The party leader needs member approval even if the PM doesn't
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    Why are you even bothering to engage with him? It's not in the rules, and it's not happening.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    I’ve never bought this argument that England will be a one-party state without the other countries. It’s usually supposed to be Tory hegemony, but now it’s supposedly to be Labour. Arrant nonsense. England is a rich tapestry, and there will always be variety, even and especially in her politics.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    Lol - 'how dare you lie and distort my post'. You did that repeatedly to me just yesterday and didn't retract when asked to.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
    Which then started a civil war
  • Options
    WillG said:

    Are a minimum of 100 MPs and membership that stupid? You’d be looking at an immediate Tory split and increased calls for a general election

    Yes and yes.
    Do you think the 100+ MPs are actual true believers in Boris? Or just weaklings bullied by their Associations?
    Who cares? They're dipsticks either way.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857
    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    As they are as much a part of the party as MPs, if MPs can't agree a PM that members support then a general election has to occur.

    The party leader needs member approval even if the PM doesn't
    Whether members support the PM is irrelevant. It is MPs that count under the UK constitution. You're trying to wreck it bu insinuating other bodies. Y
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    edited October 2022
    They should take the decision out of the memberships hands, agree a PM and the members can vote for whatever idiot they like to lead their pathetic little party into extinction. Or make it very clear to the membership if they impose Boris then they will collapse the government immediately and force a GE. Put these Truss voting morons back in their box
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    As they are as much a part of the party as MPs, if MPs can't agree a PM that members support then a general election has to occur.

    The party leader needs member approval even if the PM doesn't
    Whether members support the PM is irrelevant. It is MPs that count under the UK constitution. You're trying to wreck it bu insinuating other bodies. Y
    Yes and under my plan MPs get to elect a PM without a general election if their choice confirmed by party members.

    If not a snap general election as MPs cannot just have removed the party members choice for leader and impose a new PM if that PM does not have members support. Their choice is for leader of the party too NOT just PM remember, so if the 2 are again in conflict a general election must occur
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    Why are you even bothering to engage with him? It's not in the rules, and it's not happening.
    Sometimes there is just too much bollocks. It's worse than a Provencal boucherie window full of couilles.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited October 2022

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    JACK_W said:

    Titter

    ye not
    Ah, my student foray into debating.

    Run by the most exclusive end of the public school types, of course, they would hold an open competition annually.

    I pulled out something about Hamlet's daughters, and was superciliously asked - they did teach you that in your school didn't they? (No).

    But, sitcom character like, I wasn't having that and decided to bluff and talk around some pretty generic plot traits.

    So, about two minutes in and running out of things to say. I actually fell quite naturally into a Frankie Howard voice and continued in the vane of "Ooooh. the betrayal" for two or three cycles.

    I never debated again.
    Hamlet's daughters? WTAF?

    The whole point of Hamlet is he and his girlfriend get killed off!
    I've obviously suppressed this to the extent of misremembering and avoiding many of the plays (had a friend who was mad on Marlowe and went through much of his work). Lear, of course.A bit more Frankie Howard.
    Howerd.
    m-) 🤦
  • Options

    Are a minimum of 100 MPs and membership that stupid? You’d be looking at an immediate Tory split and increased calls for a general election

    Johnson provoked a split in 2019 and then won a majority of 80 with his true believers.

    I know that the situation is different now, but if you're a desperate MP staring at a polling deficit of more than 30pp, I can see why the second coming of Johnson might appeal as a Hail Mary play.
    Surely you only play the Hail Mary when there is no downside.

    The Tories have every reason to think they will lose with Sunak or Mordaunt, but they do at least live to fight another day.

    Boris 2 is an Extinction Event.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The one thing the Tories could do to make matters worse is to put the liar back in number ten. On current form he is a shoe in.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The Tories gain a tiny majority on the back of a barnstorming campaign by Boris promising the moon on a stick to low information voters.
    He loses his seat.
    Starmer resigns.
    Tory leadership campaign again. The eternal quest for "unity".
    A Labour leadership election too.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857

    Boris 2 is an Extinction Event.

    Friday’s Daily Telegraph: “Boris Johnson tells Tories: I can save party from election wipeout” #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1583205766676516866/photo/1
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    That’s the only upside to a BoZo return. So I’m hoping he does cause enough MPs to quit for it to happen.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,090
    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    And then what?

    Britain falls for Johnson's rogueish charm once more, or Labour elect a couple of hundred paper candidates?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,217
    They should have disqualified all the numpties who voted for Truss last time.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The banter heuristic is that it goes to members, Bozo wins by 0.1 percent, and it is somehow revealed that the digital vote was hacked by the Russians.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,095

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Depends what the point of the government is for the next 24 months.

    If it's to do what the bond markets tell Jeremy Hunt to do, Mordaunt is probably fine to front that. We'll need some vacuous soundbites to get us through the winter and Rishi might be a bit too sleek to sound concerned convincingly.
    A neg for Sunak is ironically what cyclefree alludes to as his usp - "I told you so!"

    Those in the party who hate him probably hate him even more for that.

    Still, he annoys all the right people on the loony wing as far as I'm concerned. Quite like to see him get it.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    I’ve never bought this argument that England will be a one-party state without the other countries. It’s usually supposed to be Tory hegemony, but now it’s supposedly to be Labour. Arrant nonsense. England is a rich tapestry, and there will always be variety, even and especially in her politics.
    Rich tapestry of arseholes, eh Stuart?
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited October 2022
    Boris lengthening

    4.5
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has come out for Boris.
    What an odious creep.

    Doesn't he realise the country might just possibly be sick and tired of Johnson?
    JRM is thinking of his own political future. That's what front-benchers and high-flyers do about 99.46% of the time.

    Not just in UK, in US as well. The percentage having arisen appreciably in my lifetime. Not that it was ever much below 90%, mind you. But at least there was SOMETHING left over for something else.

    Only thing I appreciate about the future Lord Moogrees or whatever (my nomination: Baron Dingleberry of Frack in the County of Wokeshire) is his chutzpah.

    For example, getting the ball really rolling on Fracking just last week, actively mismanaging the (alleged? temporary? moronic!) VOC so spectacularly that the PM was frogmarched out to resign next day - and then start opining on who HE thinks is fit to be the next PM!

    Cheek that stupendous should be acknowledged. But NOT kissed. Rather, kicked at every suitable opportunity.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,447
    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    Roger Gale, for one, will resign the whip if Johnson becomes PM.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The Tories gain a tiny majority on the back of a barnstorming campaign by Boris promising the moon on a stick to low information voters.
    He loses his seat.
    Starmer resigns.
    Tory leadership campaign again. The eternal quest for "unity".
    A Labour leadership election too.
    By election in a safe seat is more likely in that scenario.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited October 2022

    They should take the decision out of the memberships hands, agree a PM and the members can vote for whatever idiot they like to lead their pathetic little party into extinction. Or make it very clear to the membership if they impose Boris then they will collapse the government immediately and force a GE. Put these Truss voting morons back in their box

    A Peston poll yesterday had the general public overall backing Sunak as PM but Tory 2019 voters (not even just members) backing Boris as PM again.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583079017812353024?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g

    Starmer had a 13% lead over both Boris or Sunak as preferred PM, a 21% lead over Mordaunt, a 30% lead over Badenoch and a 33% lead over Braverman

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    Why are you even bothering to engage with him? It's not in the rules, and it's not happening.
    Sometimes there is just too much bollocks. It's worse than a Provencal boucherie window full of couilles.
    There is no point in engaging with him. He’s a nasty piece of work.
  • Options
    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Seen an attractive bit of skirt has he? Phwoar....
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    The '22 is having a great centenary, no?

    Is that when they first entered Parliament?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,447
    Will Truss resign as an MP? Kwarteng as well.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    They should take the decision out of the memberships hands, agree a PM and the members can vote for whatever idiot they like to lead their pathetic little party into extinction. Or make it very clear to the membership if they impose Boris then they will collapse the government immediately and force a GE. Put these Truss voting morons back in their box

    A Peston poll yesterday had the general public overall backing Sunak as PM but Tory 2019 voters (not even just members) backing Boris as PM again.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583079017812353024?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g

    Starmer had a 13% lead over both Boris or Sunak as preferred PM, a 21% lead over Mordaunt, a 30% lead over Badenoch and a 33% lead over Braverman

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g
    Boris last had a poll lead in December last year.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    If Boris had become PM of Spain for a second time they would have.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,447
    Did any PBers win money on a 2022 Truss exit date?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    Why are you even bothering to engage with him? It's not in the rules, and it's not happening.
    Sometimes there is just too much bollocks. It's worse than a Provencal boucherie window full of couilles.
    There is no point in engaging with him. He’s a nasty piece of work.
    Tough, I will still take on and engage with Nats like you whether you like it or not
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Prime Minster has to command the majority of the House. If it gets to the members and they return the second choice we'll have another clusterf*ck. Once we get the final two, the second should step aside (into a high office of state) and let the one most likely to command that majority take up office.

    I was struck in Truss's resignation speech about how she couldn't deliver the manifesto she was elected by Conservative members on. FFS Parliament to which she owes her position was elected on the basis of the 2019 GE. Manifestos are not holy writ, but to purport that something she campaigned on to the tiny selectorate of Tory members has greater priority than the whole UK electorate is tone deafness of the highest order.

    Hear hear. I also remarked on that second point ('mandate') a couple of threads ago! It's outrageous that HYUFD is still trying to claim that party members should have any involvement whatsoever.
    How dare you lie and distort my post to suit your agenda!!!!

    I made clear if party members reject the choice of MPs their choice does not become PM, instead only party leader in a snap general election
    That's still aborting the choise of MPs - and subverting the constitution. Where in Dicey or Bagehot does it say that Conservative Party members have the right to wreck the decisions of MPs?
    No it isn't, you idiot.

    If party members rejected the choice of MPs then as I said their choice for leader would never become PM unless they won the snap general election that would be triggered immediately
    But that is it. They're wrecking the MPs selection. Can't you get it into your head that you are giving Party members a veto over Parliamentary business?
    Yes as the voluntary party still is entitled to have a say in who their party leader is, just not who the PM is if it is not the same choice as MPs without a general election first
    But why should the party members be allowed to trigger an election at all? They'rte not MPs.
    Why are you even bothering to engage with him? It's not in the rules, and it's not happening.
    Sometimes there is just too much bollocks. It's worse than a Provencal boucherie window full of couilles.
    There is no point in engaging with him. He’s a nasty piece of work.
    Tough, I will still take on and engage with Nats like you whether you like it or not
    You are a Nat.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    If Boris had become PM of Spain for a second time they would have.
    No they wouldn't and unless they invaded Spain and took on the Spanish police and Civil Guard and armed forces and SC they would have had no way of breaking Spain up wthout Madrid consent anyway
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    HYUFD said:

    They should take the decision out of the memberships hands, agree a PM and the members can vote for whatever idiot they like to lead their pathetic little party into extinction. Or make it very clear to the membership if they impose Boris then they will collapse the government immediately and force a GE. Put these Truss voting morons back in their box

    A Peston poll yesterday had the general public overall backing Sunak as PM but Tory 2019 voters (not even just members) backing Boris as PM again.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583079017812353024?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g

    Starmer had a 13% lead over both Boris or Sunak as preferred PM, a 21% lead over Mordaunt, a 30% lead over Badenoch and a 33% lead over Braverman

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g
    The party is irrevocably split, it needs to divide. The country is paying for it, so screw the membership, the MPs need to appoint a PM and anyone not in favour needs to piss off, or have the whip withdrawn.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    It would be less than Truss left and would likely save some MPs seats as would Sunak
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Eton > Oxford > Party > Country

    Mogg was always going to back Johnson
  • Options
    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    Boris still 2/1 on skybet Mordaunt out to 9/2
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
    Which then started a civil war
    Nope, the Kosovo civil war ended in 1999.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    I sorta feel like, given the party is going to get a shellacking regardless, maybe it would be more amusing to see Boris lose than a decent-seeming person like Penny. I don’t like what electing Boris again would say about the Tory Party and I don’t think I could ever forgive them, but maybe it’s time for me to stop seeing myself as a natural Tory voter and just accept the party has left me.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    HYUFD said:

    They should take the decision out of the memberships hands, agree a PM and the members can vote for whatever idiot they like to lead their pathetic little party into extinction. Or make it very clear to the membership if they impose Boris then they will collapse the government immediately and force a GE. Put these Truss voting morons back in their box

    A Peston poll yesterday had the general public overall backing Sunak as PM but Tory 2019 voters (not even just members) backing Boris as PM again.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583079017812353024?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g

    Starmer had a 13% lead over both Boris or Sunak as preferred PM, a 21% lead over Mordaunt, a 30% lead over Badenoch and a 33% lead over Braverman

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=gYkjNAaikHXUm3aKvgBV-g
    The party is irrevocably split, it needs to divide. The country is paying for it, so screw the membership, the MPs need to appoint a PM and anyone not in favour needs to piss off, or have the whip withdrawn.
    No, Labour MPs still had to accept the choice of Labour members for Corbyn until election defeats led those members to change their mind
  • Options
    Anyone else not like Derbyshite on Newsnight?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The Tories gain a tiny majority on the back of a barnstorming campaign by Boris promising the moon on a stick to low information voters.
    He loses his seat.
    Starmer resigns.
    Tory leadership campaign again. The eternal quest for "unity".
    A Labour leadership election too.
    Good god are you not satisfied with the current carnage that you fantasize for even more?
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Did any PBers win money on a 2022 Truss exit date?

    They should have. Hyufd flagged it clearly enough.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The Tories gain a tiny majority on the back of a barnstorming campaign by Boris promising the moon on a stick to low information voters.
    He loses his seat.
    Starmer resigns.
    Tory leadership campaign again. The eternal quest for "unity".
    A Labour leadership election too.
    By election in a safe seat is more likely in that scenario.
    PM from the Lords, he wouldn't care how it looked
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited October 2022
    The thing is you normally see a situation developing from some way out.

    Two weeks into Truss's premiership a lot commented at how good it was Boris was irrelevant, the world has moved on. But that needed time and the time didn't happen.

    So now, this isn't a new crisis and election, but has turned into a re-litigation of the last one and so Johnson looms large again as part of that re-litigation

    So, I think part tactic, part what the mad Borisites were going to do anyway, was come out of the traps quickly.

    If it is entirely the usual suspects - a lot are but there is a smidge of red wall as well - the that nomination count may run out steam. I think the trick here is to assess those declared supporter names and think whether that kind of base will see him to 100 or not.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Depends what the point of the government is for the next 24 months.

    If it's to do what the bond markets tell Jeremy Hunt to do, Mordaunt is probably fine to front that. We'll need some vacuous soundbites to get us through the winter and Rishi might be a bit too sleek to sound concerned convincingly.
    A neg for Sunak is ironically what cyclefree alludes to as his usp - "I told you so!"

    Those in the party who hate him probably hate him even more for that.

    Still, he annoys all the right people on the loony wing as far as I'm concerned. Quite like to see him get it.
    Once tory mps hear from the members this weekend bojo is a shoe in
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    Truss's failure might lead the Tories to embrace realignment more wholeheartedly:

    @danny__kruger
    Spot on from @MelanieLatest (citing @GoodwinMJ research): 'The party now has to make a choice. Does it want to restore the UK as an independent national project that upholds its historic culture, traditions and institutions? Or does it want to finally break that culture apart on the rocks of social or economic individualism and anti-west ideological dogma?'

    This is plain speaking and the language will alarm moderate Conservatives. But this is a critical moment when the nettle must be grasped:

    Whatever Govt emerges from this crisis needs to rebuild the 2019 coalition of voters. This means Brexit, borders, manufacturing, family, place, defence, tradition, solidarity... not just tax cuts and technocracy.

    We can do that in a way which brings the moderates along : people with an interest in localism, public service reform, help for enterprise, environmental action - all this is compatible with the 2019 alignment. Conservatives unite!


    https://twitter.com/danny__kruger/status/1583049318445248513
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,063

    kinabalu said:

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Depends what the point of the government is for the next 24 months.

    If it's to do what the bond markets tell Jeremy Hunt to do, Mordaunt is probably fine to front that. We'll need some vacuous soundbites to get us through the winter and Rishi might be a bit too sleek to sound concerned convincingly.
    A neg for Sunak is ironically what cyclefree alludes to as his usp - "I told you so!"

    Those in the party who hate him probably hate him even more for that.

    Still, he annoys all the right people on the loony wing as far as I'm concerned. Quite like to see him get it.
    Once tory mps hear from the members this weekend bojo is a shoe in
    MPs are capable of disagreeing with their members and representing the views of their broader voter pool. Whether they do or not is personal choice.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043

    Anyone else not like Derbyshite on Newsnight?

    She has always been overrated since the 5live days. The BBC seem to find something new for her after she disappoints.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857
    Andy_JS said:

    Did any PBers win money on a 2022 Truss exit date?

    Ladbrokes have not settled yet

    2022
    35/1
    When Will Liz Truss Be Replaced As PM? (1st Instance Only)
    Liz Truss Specials
    22:00, 24 Jan

    I believe it was Morris Dancer that flagged the odds, which were boosted.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
    Which then started a civil war
    Nope, the Kosovo civil war ended in 1999.
    KLA forces began a war to break away from Serbia, it was only the UN administration of the area for several years that led to international recognition of Kosovon independence. Though Russia and China have now withdrawn that recognition
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has come out for Boris.
    What an odious creep.

    Doesn't he realise the country might just possibly be sick and tired of Johnson?
    Reckon JRM has been offered one of the great jobs of state by Johnson
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Did any PBers win money on a 2022 Truss exit date?

    Yes, doubled my money.
  • Options

    Truss's failure might lead the Tories to embrace realignment more wholeheartedly:

    @danny__kruger
    Spot on from @MelanieLatest (citing @GoodwinMJ research): 'The party now has to make a choice. Does it want to restore the UK as an independent national project that upholds its historic culture, traditions and institutions? Or does it want to finally break that culture apart on the rocks of social or economic individualism and anti-west ideological dogma?'

    This is plain speaking and the language will alarm moderate Conservatives. But this is a critical moment when the nettle must be grasped:

    Whatever Govt emerges from this crisis needs to rebuild the 2019 coalition of voters. This means Brexit, borders, manufacturing, family, place, defence, tradition, solidarity... not just tax cuts and technocracy.

    We can do that in a way which brings the moderates along : people with an interest in localism, public service reform, help for enterprise, environmental action - all this is compatible with the 2019 alignment. Conservatives unite!


    https://twitter.com/danny__kruger/status/1583049318445248513

    Populism is returning now...bojo potentially back and the gop making big gains in the midterms
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,573
    Baroness Nicholson going studs in to the London private hospital who refused a cancer patient care because as a rape survivor she asked for all-female nursing:

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1583133610462236672
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857
    The one constant in the current chaos is likely to be Jeremy Hunt. There's something of a consensus that he must stay at Number 11, providing continued reassurance to the markets
    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1583210467714953217

    If BoZo wins, does he quit? Or get sacked?
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,063
    Given we know Truss wears a submissive day collar, are we sure the last six weeks weren't just an exercise in getting the biggest thrill possible from a humiliation fetish?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    It would be less than Truss left and would likely save some MPs seats as would Sunak
    I wasn't just talking about the election. Boris as PM would carry on with his lies and corruption. It was never ending so why would it end now. He would be emboldened. If he got in it would start all over again, starting with the privileges committee outcome.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:
    Mordaunt virtually out of it now too inexperienced...its sunak v bojo
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    It would be less than Truss left and would likely save some MPs seats as would Sunak
    I wasn't just talking about the election. Boris as PM would carry on with his lies and corruption. It was never ending so why would it end now. He would be emboldened. If he got in it would start all over again, starting with the privileges committee outcome.
    If you had read what I said earlier Boris would only become PM if most Tory MPs as well as members backed him, if not there would be a snap general election and he would only return as party leader and not PM unless he won that election
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Carnyx said:

    Baxter says:

    Labour 560
    SNP 52
    Lib Dem 11
    Plaid 4
    Conservative 3

    So if we lose Scotland there is a danger of England and Wales becoming a one party state.

    The new compliant from the SNP will be that they have Labour governments imposed on them against their will.
    Why not? It'll be true.
    The only honest message for the people of Scotland is that within the U.K. you have to accept that’s it’s one person one vote, and all constituencies are equal. There are more constituencies in England than Scotland but that shouldn’t matter any more than it matters that Cornwall or Yorkshire get governments imposed on them. If Boris as PM is enough to be a deal breaker for someone, then they should vote for independence - it means they don’t “feel” like the U.K. is home.

    I think that’s simple and true. That’s also why I think the Scots should get a referendum whenever a majority in Hollyrood wants one. Why ever would the rest of the U.K. want to impose something the people of Scotland didn’t want?

    I think that position is simple, and true, and I reckon Nicola Sturgeon and I could agree on it.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,155
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    23m
    Current assumption is Boris’s ceiling is around 70. When he gets beyond that we can start to take him seriously. Until then it’s all a bit frothy.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,573

    kinabalu said:

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Depends what the point of the government is for the next 24 months.

    If it's to do what the bond markets tell Jeremy Hunt to do, Mordaunt is probably fine to front that. We'll need some vacuous soundbites to get us through the winter and Rishi might be a bit too sleek to sound concerned convincingly.
    A neg for Sunak is ironically what cyclefree alludes to as his usp - "I told you so!"

    Those in the party who hate him probably hate him even more for that.

    Still, he annoys all the right people on the loony wing as far as I'm concerned. Quite like to see him get it.
    Once tory mps hear from the members this weekend bojo is a shoe in
    MPs are representatives not delegates of all their constituents, not just the members of their local party.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
    Which then started a civil war
    Nope, the Kosovo civil war ended in 1999.
    KLA forces began a war to break away from Serbia, it was only the UN administration of the area for several years that led to international recognition of Kosovon independence. Though Russia and China have now withdrawn that recognition
    But the Kosovo UDI was in 2008, nine years after the war.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155
    Sir Christopher Chope on Newsnight... dear God.
  • Options
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Much as I would like to see Hunt or Sunak for the good of the country, there is a little bit of me that would like to see Boris so that @hyufd can witness the carnage that will happen.
    It would be less than Truss left and would likely save some MPs seats as would Sunak
    I wasn't just talking about the election. Boris as PM would carry on with his lies and corruption. It was never ending so why would it end now. He would be emboldened. If he got in it would start all over again, starting with the privileges committee outcome.
    Yes and i think to try and win the election bojo will up the racist dog whistling and culture wars...he can reach the voters Sunak cant
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155
    Chope - It's all Rishi's fault
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,857
    🚨EXCLUSIVE

    Boris Johnson is privately urging Rishi Sunak to join forces with him in a remarkable olive branch to his foe

    Ally of Boris tells @Telegraph: “If the Tories are serious about winning in 2024 + want to stop a general election before then they need to revert to the…”

    “…guy with a mandate who is a seasoned campaigner. They need someone to take the fight to Labour. There’s no point going to a yellow box junction without knowing how you are going to get out of it. Rishi should make contact + work out how the two of them can get back together.”


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212562380120071
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,522

    kinabalu said:

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Depends what the point of the government is for the next 24 months.

    If it's to do what the bond markets tell Jeremy Hunt to do, Mordaunt is probably fine to front that. We'll need some vacuous soundbites to get us through the winter and Rishi might be a bit too sleek to sound concerned convincingly.
    A neg for Sunak is ironically what cyclefree alludes to as his usp - "I told you so!"

    Those in the party who hate him probably hate him even more for that.

    Still, he annoys all the right people on the loony wing as far as I'm concerned. Quite like to see him get it.
    Once tory mps hear from the members this weekend bojo is a shoe in
    You are in fact B. Johnson and I claim my £5.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    She came in, did her job as a closet republican, then extracted.
  • Options

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    23m
    Current assumption is Boris’s ceiling is around 70. When he gets beyond that we can start to take him seriously. Until then it’s all a bit frothy.

    Ok but mordaunt is looking a no hoper...there are 360 tory mps and with only 2 main candidates think boris could easily reach 100
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:
    Mordaunt virtually out of it now too inexperienced...its sunak v bojo
    Sunak now 10/11, Johnson 7/2, Mordaunt 4/1. Genuine three horse race. I see no value at those odds.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying Boris becoming PM again would be a legitimate reason for Scotland to Unilaterally Declare Independence that would be recognised by International case law but I am absolutely saying that.

    Legally even the SC would rule a UDI illegal as the union is a reserved matter to the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 even if it decides a referendum isn't.

    Hence Sturgeon has also ruled out UDI, no nations recognised Catalonia's declaration of UDI in 2017
    Kosovo declared independence in 2008.
    Which then started a civil war
    Nope, the Kosovo civil war ended in 1999.
    KLA forces began a war to break away from Serbia, it was only the UN administration of the area for several years that led to international recognition of Kosovon independence. Though Russia and China have now withdrawn that recognition
    But the Kosovo UDI was in 2008, nine years after the war.
    And it wasn’t much of a “U” UDI. It was pretty multilateral, just excluding Serbia…
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨EXCLUSIVE

    Boris Johnson is privately urging Rishi Sunak to join forces with him in a remarkable olive branch to his foe

    Ally of Boris tells @Telegraph: “If the Tories are serious about winning in 2024 + want to stop a general election before then they need to revert to the…”

    “…guy with a mandate who is a seasoned campaigner. They need someone to take the fight to Labour. There’s no point going to a yellow box junction without knowing how you are going to get out of it. Rishi should make contact + work out how the two of them can get back together.”


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212562380120071

    That actually suggests a weakness in his support. Slightly more reassured now.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - could one of her fans explain the attraction (as suitability for PM)?

    Surely one vacuous purveyor of soundbites is enough for one year?

    Taller than Sunak.
    Less dishonest than Johnson.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨EXCLUSIVE

    Boris Johnson is privately urging Rishi Sunak to join forces with him in a remarkable olive branch to his foe

    Ally of Boris tells @Telegraph: “If the Tories are serious about winning in 2024 + want to stop a general election before then they need to revert to the…”

    “…guy with a mandate who is a seasoned campaigner. They need someone to take the fight to Labour. There’s no point going to a yellow box junction without knowing how you are going to get out of it. Rishi should make contact + work out how the two of them can get back together.”


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212562380120071

    Well if Rishi accepts its all over..Boris is the next PM
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,489
    edited October 2022
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The banter heuristic is that BoZo wins, Starmer wins a VONC on his first day and an election is called

    The Tories gain a tiny majority on the back of a barnstorming campaign by Boris promising the moon on a stick to low information voters.
    He loses his seat.
    Starmer resigns.
    Tory leadership campaign again. The eternal quest for "unity".
    A Labour leadership election too.
    By election in a safe seat is more likely in that scenario.
    My two favorite examples of nationally winning but locally losing Prime Ministers are from Canada:

    > In 1873, Conservative John A. Macdonald won the federal election for his party against incumbent Liberal goverment, but was defeated in his home riding of Kingston, Ontario. But because of later GE date, he ran and won in Marquette, Manitoba. Then upon accepting office as Prime Minister, he had to run a THIRD time, and this time chose to stand in a by-election for Victoria, BC that had been arranged for this purpose, and was easily elected. Note that Vic electors strongly backed construction of CPR (to put it mildly) AND as always tried to stay on good side of whoever was in power way far off in Ottawa.

    > In June 1945, Liberal Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King was defeated in riding of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, which he'd represented since 1926 by-election. Though from Ontario, he contested this seat for strategic reasons, namely appealing to and winning the Prairie farm vote; having won it, he kept it until he lost it. At that point, Mackenzie King got a fellow Lib with a safe Saskatchewan riding, Glengarry, to give up the seat, then won the subsequent by-election, all while serving as PM in the leadup to V-J Day.

    Source mostly wiki
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    ping said:

    Boris lengthening

    4.5

    Inches?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Andy_JS said:
    I note twelve of Boris's nominations are anonymous.

    When you remove those he's level pegging with Sunak, all of whose are named.
This discussion has been closed.