Any new prime minister deserves to have at least 12 to 18 months in office to show what that can do.
One at least expects their own party to stand behind them for a reasonable amount of time. Even Corbyn got more than a year before he was formally challenged.
Off topic, but important for anyone betting on American politics: The US job market continued strong: "The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in September, returning to its July level. The number of unemployed persons edged down to 5.8 million in September. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics decreased to 3.8 percent in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.4 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), and Asians (2.5 percent) showed little change over the month." source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
(Full disclosure: Like most others on fixed incomes, I am better off when inflation is low, and the job market anemic. But the nation is better off, and so I take pleasure in all the help wanted signs I see, even while I shop a little more carefully.)
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
He will blow up some Ukrainian hospitals and kindergartens. Like every other red line, crossing this one will result in no escalation
Looking at the train fire, that’s burning completely out of control and will have utterly buggered up the railway section of the bridge. The sections involved will need to be chopped out and completely replaced
The Russians claim they will have this repaired and running again by 8pm today. That seems optimistic
{builder mode}
Sucks teeth.
“It’ll cost you. Materials… can’t get the workers….”
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
He will blow up some Ukrainian hospitals and kindergartens. Like every other red line, crossing this one will result in no escalation
I’d have a bet with you on this, but it is too distasteful
Also, the idea Putin does not escalate is quite exotic. What was the original invasion? What was mobilisation? He’s conscripted 300,000 civilians
Looking at the train fire, that’s burning completely out of control and will have utterly buggered up the railway section of the bridge. The sections involved will need to be chopped out and completely replaced
The Russians claim they will have this repaired and running again by 8pm today. That seems optimistic
{builder mode}
Sucks teeth.
“It’ll cost you. Materials… can’t get the workers….”
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
Off topic, but important for anyone betting on American politics: The US job market continued strong: "The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in September, returning to its July level. The number of unemployed persons edged down to 5.8 million in September. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics decreased to 3.8 percent in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.4 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), and Asians (2.5 percent) showed little change over the month." source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
(Full disclosure: Like most others on fixed incomes, I am better off when inflation is low, and the job market anemic. But the nation is better off, and so I take pleasure in all the help wanted signs I see, even while I shop a little more carefully.)
Ironically the markets reacted badly to the jobs data as this continued resilience in that is more likely to see the Fed hike interest rates by another 0.75% .
Some important data comes next week with the final inflation readings before the mid-terms .
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
You’re stuck in the past.
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Nope. The latest Yougov Scottish Westminster poll has the SNP on 45%, ie only those who voted Yes in 2014.
That display text is so stupid it is practically parody. They genuinely seem to believe any response to their acts is beyond the pale, and get offended by it. It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to manage that.
Er, Russia started the war by, you know, INVADING Ukraine in February.
Their dedication, thus far, that it has not been a war up to this point is quite something. The insistance on special military operation reminds of the old gag about the Troubles - "What a stupid name - what do they think 3000 people have died of, stress?"
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Units of Russian Guards Elite, Dzerzhynskyi division, entered the city, - Chief Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Multiple arrests, detainments and blockings of military are reported."
Interesting if true - but then I'd be vulnerable to confirmation bias in this instance, given that I view a purge of scapegoated army officers as being a rather more plausible response by Putin to the Russian army's numerous failures than obliterating himself and his nation in a global thermonuclear holocaust.
Anyway, no point in jumping to conclusions: much more, and more reliable, information required.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Translation: “I’ll squeam and squeam until I’m sick!!”
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.
Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.
Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.
Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
I'm so bored of hearing about Putin's nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons didn't help the USSR in Afghanistan, the USA in Afghanistan, the USA in Vietnam. We have nuclear weapons too, the USA do too. Nuclear weapons won't help Putin dig himself out of this hole, anymore than it defeated the Taliban or Vietcong.
Depends if Putin is willing to take the risk the other leaders weren't. If the choice is complete defeat and his losing power or nuclear war, even involving NATO he may still risk it
Ukraine is not planning to march on Moscow, nor indeed annex any (pre-2014 or internationally recognised) territory of the Russian Federation. It is not even seeking regime change. Complete defeat is not on the cards, if Putin doesn’t want it.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
Had my first game of golf since before lockdown yesterday. Didn't play very well, for some reason.
That display text is so stupid it is practically parody. They genuinely seem to believe any response to their acts is beyond the pale, and get offended by it. It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to manage that.
During WW1 the Germans managed to believe that
1) Sinking merchant ships without warning was A OK 2) Said merchant ships having guns and shooting back at submarines was evil and piracy.
They actually hung a British Captain for having the temerity to fight back
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
The trouble is that there is no good ending to the current regime. If we survive this war, we could end up with a North Korean style regime in Russia, albeit with nukes. I honestly don't know what the answer is.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
The trouble is that there is no good ending to the current regime. If we survive this war, we could end up with a North Korean style regime in Russia, albeit with nukes.
I honestly don't know what the answer is.
The most likely future surely has to be the internal fragmentation of Russia with multiple civil wars happening at once. In the aftermath of that we’ll see some new states born akin to a country run by Escobar but with nukes.
Beat itself in the first furlong. Horse wouldn't settle. Not much a jockey can do about that.
Yep. Head at 90 degrees. Settling a horse is part of a jockey's skillset though. Cauthen was v good at this I remember from when I was first getting into racing.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
Do you think that someone could tell Putin that boasting/threatening about your “Big Weapons” all the time, forms a certain impression?
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
The trouble is that there is no good ending to the current regime. If we survive this war, we could end up with a North Korean style regime in Russia, albeit with nukes. I honestly don't know what the answer is.
North Korea is all bark and no bite (because it has given up trying to conquer more territory and is left alone in it's turn.) Russia as North Korea would be hell for the Russian people but, I think, quite satisfactory for the rest of the planet.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
OGH has been prolific in his seed, although his capacity for passing on good shoe sense is not 100%
[translation: @TSE, by virtue of his role in PB, is jocularly referred to as OGH's other son. Unless he was the milkman to Mr & Mrs TSE at the right time, this is unlikely to be true. See also pineapple on pizza, the desirability or otherwise of Radiohead, ..ICIPM, and so on...]
As for the article, I have opened up a discussion place with the article attached: saves emailing it to all and helps me retain anonymity. I have added @kle4 to it: I assume you got the notification?
(At a conference) and a plenary speaker who described the UK as a basket case recognised that Brexit enabled a more flexible/faster regulatory system to be developed here during covid - used example of RECOVERY trials that they weren't able to replicate within EU due to regulatory framework.
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
I think you make a very good point that many Scottish voters are in the middle, but I don’t think Starmer has abandoned the possibility of appealing to them. Offering a plausible alternative Westminster government to the Tories, being seen as the probable winner at the next general election, that is all appealing to the Scottish “middle”. Labour aren’t going to roll back the considerable devolution Scotland has. They can have everything they like about devolution, everything they like about Sturgeon as FM, while retaining the benefits of being in the UK under a more competent/less mad/more left wing/more pro-Europe UK government.
If I’m right, we should see support for independence and for SLab rise as we get closer to the general election, presuming, as seems likely, that it continues to look like Starmer will win.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
The trouble is that there is no good ending to the current regime. If we survive this war, we could end up with a North Korean style regime in Russia, albeit with nukes. I honestly don't know what the answer is.
North Korea is all bark and no bite (because it has given up trying to conquer more territory and is left alone in it's turn.) Russia as North Korea would be hell for the Russian people but, I think, quite satisfactory for the rest of the planet.
Putin does look ronery at the end of his big table.
Just been quoted £2600 plus VAT for a new boiler and installation. Does that sound reasonable?
It sounds about right, but always a good idea to get a 2nd quote
@FrankBooth I just checked and paid £1920 (including VAT) for a gas boiler and installation at the start of 2020. As I recall the price differentials are related to the length of the warranty. I paid 50% upfront and 50% after completion.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless
Here in Tallinn we have been doing high fives and giving thumbs ups all day. It is a good day, and a clear reminder that Russia needs to be faced down and will be faced down in time. No sense of existential dread, and we are next door to the B%&%¤#.
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
Do you think that someone could tell Putin that boasting/threatening about your “Big Weapons” all the time, forms a certain impression?
Part of the problem is that his people have been threatening the most dire escalations even in response to harsh words or simple weapons transfers from the beginning. Spotting the serious escalation in his threats might prove more difficult as a result. North Korea is the same.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
Or it could be Russian elements other that Putin.
Could be elements in the military who realise how badly the war is going and want out so they thought this would hasten the end of the war. So “soft-liners” rather than hard-liners.
Translation: “I’ll squeam and squeam until I’m sick!!”
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
Frit? I’m strolling happily around Regent’s Park. Which is looking gorgeous in the fine autumn sun, and is full of chic Art people getting ready for Frieze. I’m not “frit”
I AM deeply intrigued by geopolitical events which could change the world, and I am concerned they could escalate to a total war. And I am also going to the inner circle cafe to have a flat white coffee and a chat with my daughter. That seems a fairly rational response to developments, but if you prefer to imagine me sitting in a corner of a squalid apartment rocking myself gently, as I weep with THE FEAR, go ahead
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Turn it into a book. You can probably do better than 99% of the pre WW1 invasion literature. If you can beat Saki, though…
Too short (~1100 words), although it has three maps. It was difficult to keep it to a reasonable length, and my tendency to get lost in the research took full effect: I ended up counting how many hovercraft Russian armed forces has, and whether the UK 's "deep strike" doctrine could cope with an invasion. Given that and the fact that the entire concept has a tinge of stolen valor - the Ukranians are fighting, not the UK - I didn't really want to go full novella.
Translation: “I’ll squeam and squeam until I’m sick!!”
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
Frit? I’m strolling happily around Regent’s Park. Which is looking gorgeous in the fine autumn sun, and is full of chic Art people getting ready for Frieze. I’m not “frit”
I AM deeply intrigued by geopolitical events which could change the world, and I am concerned they could escalate to a total war. And I am also going to the inner circle cafe to have a flat white coffee and a chat with my daughter. That seems a fairly rational response to developments, but if you prefer to imagine me sitting in a corner of a squalid apartment rocking myself gently, as I weep with THE FEAR, go ahead
Fair do’s, you just seem to post on here continually about dire escalation to apocalypse. If that’s for shits and giggles rather than you meaning it then fair enough.
A lot of these rumours on Twitter. BUT they all seem to come from Ukrainian accounts. And they have a vested interest in stoking confusion and loathing in Moscow
“All Russian Army units around the perimeter of Moscow are put on high alert.”
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
Had my first game of golf since before lockdown yesterday. Didn't play very well, for some reason.
Is the reason that you're not very good at golf?
I see what you’re driving at, putt I didn’t altogether like the irony.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
Or it could be Russian elements other that Putin.
Could be elements in the military who realise how badly the war is going and want out so they thought this would hasten the end of the war. So “soft-liners” rather than hard-liners.
Or hardliners who want an escalation, and therefore have organized a big bang that does minimal damage.
As an aside, pro-Russian Twitter (Will Schryver, etc.) has moved on from:
It's all going swimmingly.
to
Actually, it's not the Ukrainians that are fighting, it's US and British special forces who have been secretly smuggled into the country, and one third of Ukrainian forces area actually NATO troops. If it was up to the Ukrainians, they'd have all surrendered and they'd be happily Russian citizens now.
I'm trying to decide whether to put the heating on.
It's definitely getting colder and I don't want to develop a cold.
I might compromise by lighting the stove tonight.
Don't mean to boast or anything but we don't usually put the heating on until November. Until then we just wear more jumpers/fleeces, etc.
I wear shorts until November.
Softy. I only stop my outside ice baths in December, and then only because I need it to store coal.
Coal?
COAL!!!
What do you need coal for, heating?!?!
These namby pamby weaklings who can't even cope with having blue fingers, honestly...
What else do you use a bath for, other than to store coal?
Well, that is one line of argument, though then again you could just as soon argue "why does he possess a bath in the first place?"
Cold showers are quite sufficient for the purpose of hygiene. Cold baths are an effete and decadent luxury. But what else do you expect from these coal burning toffs?
Translation: “I’ll squeam and squeam until I’m sick!!”
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
Frit? I’m strolling happily around Regent’s Park. Which is looking gorgeous in the fine autumn sun, and is full of chic Art people getting ready for Frieze. I’m not “frit”
I AM deeply intrigued by geopolitical events which could change the world, and I am concerned they could escalate to a total war. And I am also going to the inner circle cafe to have a flat white coffee and a chat with my daughter. That seems a fairly rational response to developments, but if you prefer to imagine me sitting in a corner of a squalid apartment rocking myself gently, as I weep with THE FEAR, go ahead
Fair do’s, you just seem to post on here continually about dire escalation to apocalypse. If that’s for shits and giggles rather than you meaning it then fair enough.
I get accused of posting continuously about EVERYTHING
Woke, aliens, what3words, Brexit, AI, Dalle-2, Ukraine, threads, oysters, my travels, my lunch, the London economy, the necklace, oysters again
I’ve come to realise this is actually quite flattering
As an aside, pro-Russian Twitter (Will Schryver, etc.) has moved on from:
It's all going swimmingly.
to
Actually, it's not the Ukrainians that are fighting, it's US and British special forces who have been secretly smuggled into the country, and one third of Ukrainian forces area actually NATO troops. If it was up to the Ukrainians, they'd have all surrendered and they'd be happily Russian citizens now.
Amazing stuff, vodka. Drink enough of it and you'll believe anything!
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
Or it could be Russian elements other that Putin.
Could be elements in the military who realise how badly the war is going and want out so they thought this would hasten the end of the war. So “soft-liners” rather than hard-liners.
Or hardliners who want an escalation, and therefore have organized a big bang that does minimal damage.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Translation: “I’ll squeam and squeam until I’m sick!!”
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
Frit? I’m strolling happily around Regent’s Park. Which is looking gorgeous in the fine autumn sun, and is full of chic Art people getting ready for Frieze. I’m not “frit”
I AM deeply intrigued by geopolitical events which could change the world, and I am concerned they could escalate to a total war. And I am also going to the inner circle cafe to have a flat white coffee and a chat with my daughter. That seems a fairly rational response to developments, but if you prefer to imagine me sitting in a corner of a squalid apartment rocking myself gently, as I weep with THE FEAR, go ahead
Fair do’s, you just seem to post on here continually about dire escalation to apocalypse. If that’s for shits and giggles rather than you meaning it then fair enough.
Sometimes @Leon comes up with a sober analysis - other times, not so much. No idea why it varies.
Either way he's entertaining and infuriating in equal measure.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
Or it could be Russian elements other that Putin.
Could be elements in the military who realise how badly the war is going and want out so they thought this would hasten the end of the war. So “soft-liners” rather than hard-liners.
Or hardliners who want an escalation, and therefore have organized a big bang that does minimal damage.
F1: backed Sainz each way for the win at 14. He was essentially tied with Verstappen and Leclerc, the latter of whom tends to go backwards rather than forwards from the grid. Also, if tyre wear matters Ferrari may have an advantage, and Sainz is sharper than his team mate when it comes to ignoring Ferrari's cunning strategy plans.
As an aside, pro-Russian Twitter (Will Schryver, etc.) has moved on from:
It's all going swimmingly.
to
Actually, it's not the Ukrainians that are fighting, it's US and British special forces who have been secretly smuggled into the country, and one third of Ukrainian forces area actually NATO troops. If it was up to the Ukrainians, they'd have all surrendered and they'd be happily Russian citizens now.
They're barking, of course. The British Army is so small you could probably fit all of them into Wembley Stadium. The special forces would barely fill the royal box.
The level of self-delusion being used to avoid facing the truth - that the Russian Army is shit - is really quite something to behold.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
Or it could be Russian elements other that Putin.
Could be elements in the military who realise how badly the war is going and want out so they thought this would hasten the end of the war. So “soft-liners” rather than hard-liners.
Or hardliners who want an escalation, and therefore have organized a big bang that does minimal damage.
Ukraine has claimed responsibility.
I thought Ukrainian media have said it was the Ukrainian Armed Forced, but that the Ukrainian government had not publicly made a claim. Official Ukrainian channels have certainly relished in the news, but I’d not think they’ve explicitly said it was them.
According to a Washington Post story, the Ukrainians are taking credit for the bridge blast: "A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Saturday that Ukrainian special services were behind the bridge attack. The Ukrainska Pravda news site first reported the government’s purported role, citing an unidentified law enforcement official who said Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, was involved."
As an aside, pro-Russian Twitter (Will Schryver, etc.) has moved on from:
It's all going swimmingly.
to
Actually, it's not the Ukrainians that are fighting, it's US and British special forces who have been secretly smuggled into the country, and one third of Ukrainian forces area actually NATO troops. If it was up to the Ukrainians, they'd have all surrendered and they'd be happily Russian citizens now.
They're barking, of course. The British Army is so small you could probably fit all of them into Wembley Stadium. The special forces would barely fill the royal box.
The level of self-delusion being used to avoid facing the truth - that the Russian Army is shit - is really quite something to behold.
Wembley has a capacity of 90,000. Wikipedia says we're below 80,000 full time troops. Stick the reserves on the pitch itself and it'd be no problem.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Sorry to be daft, @viewcode. How do I access Part 2?
I have opened up a discussion place with the article attached: saves emailing it to all and helps me retain anonymity. I have added @Gardenwalker to it: I assume you got the notification?
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
It's interesting that they are passing it off as "minor" and that everything is supposedly back to normal "by tonight", though. Rather than an outrage striking at the very soul of the Motherland.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Sorry to be daft, @viewcode. How do I access Part 2?
I have opened up a discussion place with the article attached: saves emailing it to all and helps me retain anonymity. I have added @Gardenwalker to it: I assume you got the notification?
Thanks, yes! Just popping out for Korean Chicken. Will read in due course.
Good thread on the deep psychological impact of the Bridge Attack: on Russians
“Humor aside, this is a big #PSYOP win for #Ukraine. Logistically, as I understand it, traffic can be re-routed & rail operations are restored. This isn't the main issue. The main issue is reinforcement of perception of vulnerability that anyone in any Ukrainian area occupied +”
The fear of escalation after the Kerch bridge is like the fear you feel when your team are sending bouncers down at the fast bowling tail ender before your second innings.
Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Sorry to be daft, @viewcode. How do I access Part 2?
I have opened up a discussion place with the article attached: saves emailing it to all and helps me retain anonymity. I have added @Gardenwalker to it: I assume you got the notification?
Thanks, yes! Just popping out for Korean Chicken. Will read in due course.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
It's interesting that they are passing it off as "minor" and that everything is supposedly back to normal "by tonight", though. Rather than an outrage striking at the very soul of the Motherland.
No that’s quite normal human behaviour
Russia has been publicly and brutally humiliated. One immediate reaction to humiliation is to pretend you’re not hurt, not mad, NOT humiliated, oh I don’t care hahah so you’ve covered me with dog poo very funny whatever let’s move on haha
Etc
They’re trying to minimise their own discomfort and mortification, and also minimise the total embarrassment that this was “allowed” to happen
And there ARE plenty of Russian voices which are full of anger - and lusting for revenge
That display text is so stupid it is practically parody. They genuinely seem to believe any response to their acts is beyond the pale, and get offended by it. It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to manage that.
During WW1 the Germans managed to believe that
1) Sinking merchant ships without warning was A OK 2) Said merchant ships having guns and shooting back at submarines was evil and piracy.
They actually hung a British Captain for having the temerity to fight back
To be pedantic: shot Captain Fryatt by firing squad.
I checked my memory to confirm this, and discovered that he not only has a monument in Liverpool St Station but also a pub at Parkeston (Harwich) named after him - both I presume because he served on railway-linked ferry services.
The fear of escalation after the Kerch bridge is like the fear you feel when your team are sending bouncers down at the fast bowling tail ender before your second innings.
No, it’s like your fast bowlers sending bouncers down in the 4th innings.
To mix sporting analogies, the whole war has been a giant rope a dope. Ukraine extracted a very heavy price for the territorial gains Russia made. The Russians punched themselves out, while Ukraine floated like a butterfly and gave them 1000 bee stings. The knockout blow is now fast approaching.
Totally off topic, but as it's Saturday sports related. Just had a scan through the scores and down in the National League there's one that really took my eye: Wrexham 7 Barnet 3
That display text is so stupid it is practically parody. They genuinely seem to believe any response to their acts is beyond the pale, and get offended by it. It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to manage that.
During WW1 the Germans managed to believe that
1) Sinking merchant ships without warning was A OK 2) Said merchant ships having guns and shooting back at submarines was evil and piracy.
They actually hung a British Captain for having the temerity to fight back
To be pedantic: shot Captain Fryatt by firing squad.
I checked my memory to confirm this, and discovered that he not only has a monument in Liverpool St Station but also a pub at Parkeston (Harwich) named after him - both I presume because he served on railway-linked ferry services.
The fear of escalation after the Kerch bridge is like the fear you feel when your team are sending bouncers down at the fast bowling tail ender before your second innings.
No, it’s like your fast bowlers sending bouncers down in the 4th innings.
To mix sporting analogies, the whole war has been a giant rope a dope. Ukraine extracted a very heavy price for the territorial gains Russia made. The Russians punched themselves out, while Ukraine floated like a butterfly and gave them 1000 bee stings. The knockout blow is now fast approaching.
I admire your confidence but I question your logic
How do you deliver a “knockout blow” to an an unstable autocracy armed with nukes?
You are presuming that, when facing total defeat (and likely his own death) Putin will simply accept this. Why should he do that?
We can hope that if and when he pushes the button nothing happens and his generals rush in and rugby tackle him. Adieu Vladimir
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
It's interesting that they are passing it off as "minor" and that everything is supposedly back to normal "by tonight", though. Rather than an outrage striking at the very soul of the Motherland.
No that’s quite normal human behaviour
Russia has been publicly and brutally humiliated. One immediate reaction to humiliation is to pretend you’re not hurt, not mad, NOT humiliated, oh I don’t care hahah so you’ve covered me with dog poo very funny whatever let’s move on haha
Etc
They’re trying to minimise their own discomfort and mortification, and also minimise the total embarrassment that this was “allowed” to happen
And there ARE plenty of Russian voices which are full of anger - and lusting for revenge
"Russia has been given an opportunity to consolidate and re-evaluate. It turns out that the newly integrated territories, whilst aspiring to be Russian, are not quite up to the standards needed. In particular their military prowess seems lacking. Russia will therefore draw its borders back on the old lines - the true Russia, and should the many aspirants wish to apply again then they will be most welcome."
Edit: And this obviously isn't a quote, but something that might be a quote.
Comments
The number of unemployed persons edged down to 5.8 million in September. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics decreased to 3.8 percent
in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.1 percent),
teenagers (11.4 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), and Asians (2.5
percent) showed little change over the month."
source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
(Full disclosure: Like most others on fixed incomes, I am better off when inflation is low, and the job market anemic. But the nation is better off, and so I take pleasure in all the help wanted signs I see, even while I shop a little more carefully.)
Sucks teeth.
“It’ll cost you. Materials… can’t get the workers….”
Also, the idea Putin does not escalate is quite exotic. What was the original invasion? What was mobilisation? He’s conscripted 300,000 civilians
Seems quite escalatory
“Erm…. Have you thought about buying a boat?”
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en
6h
One of the versions of what happened
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578648600665411584
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1578750295567634432?t=aegP6xkvy2HR-uWv8SQzeA&s=19
Some important data comes next week with the final inflation readings before the mid-terms .
Scottish Labour now up to 31%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1577725231333920769?s=20&t=cOcT4j2I4kbPR5_kFa3ARA
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578755677321060353
"⚡️ Arrests of the military began in Moscow.
Traffic in the city center was stopped.
Units of Russian Guards Elite, Dzerzhynskyi division, entered the city, - Chief Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Multiple arrests, detainments and blockings of military are reported."
I mean, I know Leon wants us to believe that he is P J O´Rourke, Hunter S. Thompson or even Will Self, but these not particularly informed views make him sound like the love child of Charles Hawtrey and Margarita Simonyan.
Do get a grip.
It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.
To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.
I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.
Notes
[1] https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/
Anyway, no point in jumping to conclusions: much more, and more reliable, information required.
Were you this frit when Bin Laden and his mates were handing the Russians their arses with US supplied weapons?
Russia has been engaged in a genocide against Ukraine all year. It tried with all its might to topple the leadership and flatten its biggest cities including Kiev and Kharkiv and it failed. It even tried a few times to disrupt supply lines through Lviv. That didn’t go so well either.
I don’t doubt the ethonationalists want a massive response. But the Russian army is now punch drunk. There will be some petulant indiscriminate attack on civilians and infrastructure, like when they tried to knock the power out last month (they succeeded for about half a day). But they’re not going to blow up the Zap plant or the dam in Kherson, because it would be as damaging to Russian assets as Ukrainian.
And every precision guided munition fired in spite is one less available to advance Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield.
I'd love a copy.
Also, from that earlier thread Leon is going to claim prescience again
Leon
Leon Posts: 26,737
May 2
Lol. There’s actually a Twitter account, complete with maps, to help the “saboteurs”
It’s called “Russian Bridges Go BOOM!”
https://twitter.com/bruckenruski/status/1520471760159842310?s=21&t=sFVGKu7J_hYMF7gEAJpvTA
COAL!!!
What do you need coal for, heating?!?!
These namby pamby weaklings who can't even cope with having blue fingers, honestly...
1) Sinking merchant ships without warning was A OK
2) Said merchant ships having guns and shooting back at submarines was evil and piracy.
They actually hung a British Captain for having the temerity to fight back
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23033096.snp-launch-broadcast-platform-indyref-campaign-ramps-keith-brown-reveals/
If we survive this war, we could end up with a North Korean style regime in Russia, albeit with nukes.
I honestly don't know what the answer is.
[translation: @TSE, by virtue of his role in PB, is jocularly referred to as OGH's other son. Unless he was the milkman to Mr & Mrs TSE at the right time, this is unlikely to be true. See also pineapple on pizza, the desirability or otherwise of Radiohead, ..ICIPM, and so on...]
As for the article, I have opened up a discussion place with the article attached: saves emailing it to all and helps me retain anonymity. I have added @kle4 to it: I assume you got the notification?
(At a conference) and a plenary speaker who described the UK as a basket case recognised that Brexit enabled a more flexible/faster regulatory system to be developed here during covid - used example of RECOVERY trials that they weren't able to replicate within EU due to regulatory framework.
This remoaner recognises this benefit
If I’m right, we should see support for independence and for SLab rise as we get closer to the general election, presuming, as seems likely, that it continues to look like Starmer will win.
As I recall the price differentials are related to the length of the warranty.
I paid 50% upfront and 50% after completion.
I AM deeply intrigued by geopolitical events which could change the world, and I am concerned they could escalate to a total war. And I am also going to the inner circle cafe to have a flat white coffee and a chat with my daughter. That seems a fairly rational response to developments, but if you prefer to imagine me sitting in a corner of a squalid apartment rocking myself gently, as I weep with THE FEAR, go ahead
“All Russian Army units around the perimeter of Moscow are put on high alert.”
https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1578760911996981250?s=46&t=sr-xGwAptf2DowA9uCxjkA
It's all going swimmingly.
to
Actually, it's not the Ukrainians that are fighting, it's US and British special forces who have been secretly smuggled into the country, and one third of Ukrainian forces area actually NATO troops. If it was up to the Ukrainians, they'd have all surrendered and they'd be happily Russian citizens now.
This is called political betting, after all.
Cold showers are quite sufficient for the purpose of hygiene. Cold baths are an effete and decadent luxury. But what else do you expect from these coal burning toffs?
Woke, aliens, what3words, Brexit, AI, Dalle-2, Ukraine, threads, oysters, my travels, my lunch, the London economy, the necklace, oysters again
I’ve come to realise this is actually quite flattering
How do I access Part 2?
Either way he's entertaining and infuriating in equal measure.
Betting Post:https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/japan-pre-race-2022.html
F1: backed Sainz each way for the win at 14. He was essentially tied with Verstappen and Leclerc, the latter of whom tends to go backwards rather than forwards from the grid. Also, if tyre wear matters Ferrari may have an advantage, and Sainz is sharper than his team mate when it comes to ignoring Ferrari's cunning strategy plans.
The level of self-delusion being used to avoid facing the truth - that the Russian Army is shit - is really quite something to behold.
"A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Saturday that Ukrainian special services were behind the bridge attack. The Ukrainska Pravda news site first reported the government’s purported role, citing an unidentified law enforcement official who said Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, was involved."
Anonymously.
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/08/crimea-kerch-bridge-attack-explosion-russia-ukraine/
“Humor aside, this is a big #PSYOP win for #Ukraine. Logistically, as I understand it, traffic can be re-routed & rail operations are restored. This isn't the main issue. The main issue is reinforcement of perception of vulnerability that anyone in any Ukrainian area occupied +”
https://twitter.com/gtcost/status/1578767131814297600?s=46&t=sr-xGwAptf2DowA9uCxjkA
As he says, if the Ukes can take down this bridge they can do almost anything
Russia has been publicly and brutally humiliated. One immediate reaction to humiliation is to pretend you’re not hurt, not mad, NOT humiliated, oh I don’t care hahah so you’ve covered me with dog poo very funny whatever let’s move on haha
Etc
They’re trying to minimise their own discomfort and mortification, and also minimise the total embarrassment that this was “allowed” to happen
And there ARE plenty of Russian voices which are full of anger - and lusting for revenge
I checked my memory to confirm this, and discovered that he not only has a monument in Liverpool St Station but also a pub at Parkeston (Harwich) named after him - both I presume because he served on railway-linked ferry services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Fryatt#German_post-war_confirmation_of_court-martial
To mix sporting analogies, the whole war has been a giant rope a dope. Ukraine extracted a very heavy price for the territorial gains Russia made. The Russians punched themselves out, while Ukraine floated like a butterfly and gave them 1000 bee stings. The knockout blow is now fast approaching.
How do you deliver a “knockout blow” to an an unstable autocracy armed with nukes?
You are presuming that, when facing total defeat (and likely his own death) Putin will simply accept this. Why should he do that?
We can hope that if and when he pushes the button nothing happens and his generals rush in and rugby tackle him. Adieu Vladimir
But that’s a hope. We cannot know this
Edit: And this obviously isn't a quote, but something that might be a quote.