So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Aside from nuclear escalation the question about all those options is why hasn't he done them already? Where are all these missiles. Quite a few are being shot out of the sky.
Whatever the outcome of this war I'm sure it will help provide content for thriller writers for years to come.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
I wonder who was driving the truck. Probably some Krasnodar gopnik who got a $200 pay day from the SBU and had no idea.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
I don't think a truck bomb, partly because of the road security, partly because of the lack of debris on the roadway, and partly because the blast would have been dissipated by the inverse square rule, so couldn't bring down two sections of roadway.
It looks to me a bomb or two under the roadway, detonated when the train was passing.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
Coincidentally quite a lot of the train network in N.Germany was taken out this morning and they're saying it was sabotage. Haven't seen if they're saying by who though.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
There's apparently a repair train on the bridge now. This seems to be one of the few areas the Russians are genuinely good at. Railway logistics is so important for their defence that they have specialised military railway repair teams. If there's any way of patching the railway up and running anything across it - even if only at one-tenth the load - then I reckon they can do it.
I wouldn't bet against the Ukrainians hitting it again and finishing the job, though.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
Coincidentally quite a lot of the train network in N.Germany was taken out this morning and they're saying it was sabotage. Haven't seen if they're saying by who though.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
I don't think a truck bomb, partly because of the road security, partly because of the lack of debris on the roadway, and partly because the blast would have been dissipated by the inverse square rule, so couldn't bring down two sections of roadway.
It looks to me a bomb or two under the roadway, detonated when the train was passing.
There’s some footage which convincingly suggests a truck bomb. I’ll have a search
It could of course have been a combo of several events. Pillars weakened by sabotage, limpet bombs underneath, the truck explodes simultaneously
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I'm trying to decide whether to put the heating on.
It's definitely getting colder and I don't want to develop a cold.
I might compromise by lighting the stove tonight.
I was forced to watch the first episode of a comedy about a young man expelled from Oxbridge and exiled to teach at a dreadful little public school in Wales. Lead character played by Jack Whitehall, who did that travel show with his mum n dad.
Are you like Jack’s character, the bald one or the bigamist?
What was that? Decline and Fall?
Dunno what it’s called. I’ll probably have to watch the whole bloody thing now. I’m way down the remote control hierarchy in my family.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
Lviv is my best guess too.
Easier said than done though. They’ve been running low on missiles, particularly longer range ones, they’re being shot out of the sky so they would need to fire a lot, and there’s little military benefit.
An attack close to the border crossing where weaponry come across from Poland would make military sense, if they can reach it. But you have to wonder why they’ve not done that already. Are they actual capable?
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
UNESCO world heritage. Mainly Polish in culture. Never really Russian
If I was Vlad Putin I would rain down conventional missiles on Historic Lviv, obliterating its ancient core, then say “Kyiv is next and they will be nukes. Retreat now”
"Cameron survived until the referendum was lost". But it was widely believed that the referendum would (from his point of view) be won, and most of his MPs voted Remain. It's true that Leave on, but Cameron was never—until the result was announced in manifest need of emergency care.
It is nearly certain that if the referendum had gone the other way, Cameron would still be PM.
Don't know about PM now but I think the Con leader would have been Osborne by 2018. Or Johnson. That was the post Cameron probable run-off in that alt reality called Remaining in the EU.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
I grew up posh, went to two private schools, Dad worked in banking etc. Charles reminded me a lot of people I went to school with, perhaps that is why I despise him so much
Anyone care to guess how severe the impact on the UK would be if the Russians knocked out the Langeled pipeline?
Obviously that would be an act of war but easy deniability on their part.
Extremely serious.
It has a capacity of 25.5 billion cubic meters per year.
So that's 1/3 of the annual UK usage.
Put it this way, if it gets blown up Truss will regret not trying to get us to save energy.
When historians draw up the final list of Truss’s regrets, not rolling out that marketing campaign won’t even reach the top 500. This premiership has ‘catastrophic’ written all over it.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Well in fact Odesa was founded by the ancient Greeks, but point taken.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
I don't think Russia has much in the way of long-range conventional missiles for targeting Lviv left, and they've been unwilling to risk the Russian Air Force. Consequently the Russians have made very little impact on the supply of Western weapons through Western Ukraine.
And Biden has recently warned of the risk of Armageddon should Putin go nuclear.
The biggest non-nuclear target I can think of, that the Russians can get to, is the Kakhovka Dam.
I grew up posh, went to two private schools, Dad worked in banking etc. Charles reminded me a lot of people I went to school with, perhaps that is why I despise him so much
I grew up posh, went to two private schools, Dad worked in banking etc. Charles reminded me a lot of people I went to school with, perhaps that is why I despise him so much
He’s not even on the site to defend himself. Give it a rest
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Yep you have to watch the knees with running. It's why I'm not keen. Re weight I think I'm unusual in that mine doesn't seem to change beyond a couple of pounds regardless of what I eat or how much I exercise. It's like I'm a bot rather than a normal person.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Well in fact Odesa was founded by the ancient Greeks, but point taken.
I'm sure I saw a report this morning that there was about to be an energy bill and supply apocalypse up there because Scotland was going into a cold winter.
Perhaps a problem of wax crayon media, and the "3 hour powercut" tickling stick that media-tosspots are currently waving around?
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
I am managing to go to the gym 3 times a week. 20 mins on an exercise bike on a high setting followed by some weights, then I may do a 30 minute swim. Also doing a lot of walking around. I did find on the exercise bikes you can just look at your phone which makes the time go fast.
I've lost half a stone in about 3 months of doing this. Not as much progress as I would have liked, but something.
It is frustrating the way that, as you get older, it is harder to lose weight and harder to get fit.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
I am managing to go to the gym 3 times a week. 20 mins on an exercise bike on a high setting followed by some weights, then I may do a 30 minute swim. Also doing a lot of walking around. I did find on the exercise bikes you can just look at your phone which makes the time go fast.
I've lost half a stone in about 3 months of doing this. Not as much progress as I would have liked, but something.
It is frustrating the way that, as you get older, it is harder to lose weight and harder to get fit.
The 500-calorie-a-day diet we can expect during the coming nuclear winter should help a bit
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
I grew up posh, went to two private schools, Dad worked in banking etc. Charles reminded me a lot of people I went to school with, perhaps that is why I despise him so much
One of us! One of us! One of us!
But seriously - I never had you pegged as a privately educated, parents established upper middle class type.
In my experience there is always bit of envy from the established upper middle to the traditional upper class. They see us all as a bunch of uncouth townies.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
It was suggested in the previous thread he might go after the north sea pipeline, which I think is a plausible escalation. If he does, how do we respond? With another escalation?
Since Threads, I just see all these events printed on a black screen, in blue type.
"North sea pipeline sabotaged - Russia denies culpability" "NATO responds with cruise missile strike on Russian base in Ukraine" "Battlefield nuclear weapons detected on Ukrainian border"
etc
And those who won't commit to the Russophobe Doomsday Cult will still be derided as cowards and appeasers when the SS-18s are falling on Hartlepool.
The 'Russophobe' claim doesn't work no matter how much you try to push it. People may or may not be overly blase about the risks of an escalated conflict, but it's not from Russophobia.
At the beginning of the current unpleasantness (& possibly subsequently but I tend to switch off when a lot of that blather starts) there were PBers glorying in the prospect of Russian troops being killed in unpleasant ways, not that those chickenhawks would ever be involved in the killing. Call me a pinko peacenik but I think there was a wee smidgeon of Russophobia involved in that bellicosity.
A hatred of Putin and his army, for invading a foreign country, isn’t the same as Russophobia.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
Tell your heart-throb Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. That will end the war.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
It was suggested in the previous thread he might go after the north sea pipeline, which I think is a plausible escalation. If he does, how do we respond? With another escalation?
Since Threads, I just see all these events printed on a black screen, in blue type.
"North sea pipeline sabotaged - Russia denies culpability" "NATO responds with cruise missile strike on Russian base in Ukraine" "Battlefield nuclear weapons detected on Ukrainian border"
etc
And those who won't commit to the Russophobe Doomsday Cult will still be derided as cowards and appeasers when the SS-18s are falling on Hartlepool.
The 'Russophobe' claim doesn't work no matter how much you try to push it. People may or may not be overly blase about the risks of an escalated conflict, but it's not from Russophobia.
At the beginning of the current unpleasantness (& possibly subsequently but I tend to switch off when a lot of that blather starts) there were PBers glorying in the prospect of Russian troops being killed in unpleasant ways, not that those chickenhawks would ever be involved in the killing. Call me a pinko peacenik but I think there was a wee smidgeon of Russophobia involved in that bellicosity.
I disagree. Thats about glorifying defeats of a current enemy, which happens to be the Russian state and thus its soldiers, not an inherent dislike or hatred of Russians as a people. I think that remains an Important distinction.
The former might be seen as distasteful, but it's not the same as the latter, which could be used as an attempt to suggest a racist dislike of Russians which means the opinions can be simply dismissed.
A lack of sympathy or empathy for the other 'side' in a conflict is not in itself a phobia of the type suggested.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
The problem I always had with those is that banging out a sufficient number of sufficiently long workouts in a week left me with stiff quads. Particularly problematic for a running enthusiast, and uncomfortable full stop. But yeah, if I'm forced to quit running then I'll probably end back on an elliptical rather than resorting to a bike. Better stiff quads than dying either from the consequences of run-ins with thick drivers or of morbid obesity.
I'm trying to decide whether to put the heating on.
It's definitely getting colder and I don't want to develop a cold.
I might compromise by lighting the stove tonight.
I was forced to watch the first episode of a comedy about a young man expelled from Oxbridge and exiled to teach at a dreadful little public school in Wales. Lead character played by Jack Whitehall, who did that travel show with his mum n dad.
Are you like Jack’s character, the bald one or the bigamist?
I know Sweden's ahead of us in terms of time but isn't it just a bit early to be drunk?
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
There's apparently a repair train on the bridge now. This seems to be one of the few areas the Russians are genuinely good at. Railway logistics is so important for their defence that they have specialised military railway repair teams. If there's any way of patching the railway up and running anything across it - even if only at one-tenth the load - then I reckon they can do it.
I wouldn't bet against the Ukrainians hitting it again and finishing the job, though.
At the least I assume shoring it up and protecting more will distract the Russians.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
I am managing to go to the gym 3 times a week. 20 mins on an exercise bike on a high setting followed by some weights, then I may do a 30 minute swim. Also doing a lot of walking around. I did find on the exercise bikes you can just look at your phone which makes the time go fast.
I've lost half a stone in about 3 months of doing this. Not as much progress as I would have liked, but something.
It is frustrating the way that, as you get older, it is harder to lose weight and harder to get fit.
The 500-calorie-a-day diet we can expect during the coming nuclear winter should help a bit
And us fatties should last a bit longer until the population dwindles to a sustainable levels.
"Cameron survived until the referendum was lost". But it was widely believed that the referendum would (from his point of view) be won, and most of his MPs voted Remain. It's true that Leave on, but Cameron was never—until the result was announced in manifest need of emergency care.
It is nearly certain that if the referendum had gone the other way, Cameron would still be PM.
I have always presumed if it had been 52/48 the other way Cameron would have been no confidence voted before 2020 after election reverses to whatever Farage would have been doing.
I've just realised, I've exercised/worked out every week since February this year, not taken a single week off. Time does fly by
Well done, I've always been too lazy to develop it as a habit
That used to be me, but once you do cross the threshold from slog to habit then it becomes an effort NOT to do exercise. I've gone away for a long weekend and have had to make a conscious effort not to pack my running gear in my luggage. Will be straight back out on the roads or off down the gym when I get home Monday afternoon though. It's one of the less destructive addictions, if you can master the art of not overdoing it and knackering yourself.
I'm afraid my regular exercise has dwindled to a few laps in a rather compact indoor heated pool. And what's worse my excellent technique - elegant and deceptively powerful, like a fish - means it takes little out of me.
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
My main concern is that my knees will eventually fail me. I've never been interested in swimming, I loathe exercise bikes and I probably wouldn't last five minutes road cycling before being wiped out by a psychotic moterrorist. Not that I'd want to become a mamil in any case.
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
Crosstrainers at the gym work for me
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
I am managing to go to the gym 3 times a week. 20 mins on an exercise bike on a high setting followed by some weights, then I may do a 30 minute swim. Also doing a lot of walking around. I did find on the exercise bikes you can just look at your phone which makes the time go fast.
I've lost half a stone in about 3 months of doing this. Not as much progress as I would have liked, but something.
It is frustrating the way that, as you get older, it is harder to lose weight and harder to get fit.
The 500-calorie-a-day diet we can expect during the coming nuclear winter should help a bit
By a happy coincidence, the NHS is promoting an 850-calorie diet to cure type-2 diabetes.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
Any new prime minister deserves to have at least 12 to 18 months in office to show what that can do.
What does 'deserve' have to do with anything? It's the position most responsible for governing the country and requires the confidence of the House - if you dont have that, you're out, you don't get a free period.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
Had my first game of golf since before lockdown yesterday. Didn't play very well, for some reason.
The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
Dolphins, being intelligent beasts, are probably swimming happily along the north Turkish seaside, entertaining the tourists!
.... After a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner,"
The Red Flag surely, if they were trained by the Russian military. Perhaps the Russian military have a different anthem nowadays of course!
Ah - sorry, it was a Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy reference that I couldn't resist!
"On the planet Earth, man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons. ... They long ago knew of Earth's planned destruction and tried to communicate this to humans who misinterpreted it as "amusing attempts to punch football or whistle for tidbits." ... The last ever dolphin message was misinterpreted as a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner," but was, in fact, a message. The message was "so long, and thanks for all the fish."
Ah yes of course; I remember the message but not the preamble. Apologies!
And apologies for the delay in apologising but my luncheon was ready.
It does seem to have become the daily nuclear war on here, though to be fair we are in a rather uncharted international situation. It does merit some discussion, though as a point to note it is worth remembering the following: a nuclear attack by Putin is still a low risk. Not as low as it would have been a few months ago, but still low. The fundamentals make it unlikely.
The chance of an all out nuclear war between NATO and Russia is even lower. It still doesn’t benefit anyone any more than it did in the 60s-80s.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
The talk from Biden is also to intimidate. He is saying to the Russian elite, "We will definitely strike back with nukes, so if you let Putin do this, your families will all die". They are sure to intervene anyway, but Biden's message does increase the certainty.
The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
Dolphins, being intelligent beasts, are probably swimming happily along the north Turkish seaside, entertaining the tourists!
.... After a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner,"
The Red Flag surely, if they were trained by the Russian military. Perhaps the Russian military have a different anthem nowadays of course!
Ah - sorry, it was a Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy reference that I couldn't resist!
"On the planet Earth, man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons. ... They long ago knew of Earth's planned destruction and tried to communicate this to humans who misinterpreted it as "amusing attempts to punch football or whistle for tidbits." ... The last ever dolphin message was misinterpreted as a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner," but was, in fact, a message. The message was "so long, and thanks for all the fish."
Ah yes of course; I remember the message but not the preamble. Apologies!
And apologies for the delay in apologising but my luncheon was ready.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
I'm trying to decide whether to put the heating on.
It's definitely getting colder and I don't want to develop a cold.
I might compromise by lighting the stove tonight.
Colds are viruses that don’t like cold weather
Really? Then I must be unusual because I get colds when I get cold.
They are seasonal and it’s a coincidence. SmithKline actually did a controlled clinic trial involving students having a shower and then standing naked in a corridor.
How that got past the ethics committee I don’t know!
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
I've watched the Flintstones and the stone age looked okay.
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
The idea of the union of E,W and Scotland (NI is of course its own dilemma) is often called Great Britain, and has been a fact for quite a time. Time enough for it to be a middling sort of belief to want to retain it, and do so robustly (muscular) when under threat politically. And time enough to call it a nation, even if in another sense E, W and Scotland are nations too. (Nations but not nation states).
When you live in England in a part where you can see beloved Scotland from your road (I am that fortunate) and you have family who love living and working in Scotland, all these thoughts seem moderate and sensible. I suspect half or more of Scots think something similar. Polling consistently suggests it.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
If the Russians had sent somebody behind the lines to spread misinformation, panic and despondency and sap our morale, it is hard to see what more they could be doing?
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
The Russians aren't capable of reversing their territorial losses. The Russian army is knackered, and the situation's only ever going to get worse from hereon in.
Russia's best troops are in Crimea. It's interesting Ukraine has blown up the bridge now, while thise troops can still escape to the north. I guess they plan on taking Crimea and wanted those troops out of there.
I think it’s more a message to the Kherson defenders that they may as well surrender because there is no way out at this point
Any new prime minister deserves to have at least 12 to 18 months in office to show what that can do.
Any excuse to keep a "Conservative" PM in No.10? Any "Conservative" at all, even one that is trashing the economy, ruining pensions, and visibly paying off the rich? Does it all really come down to "My Party, right or wrong, but I will support it until I die!"?
How much damage should we all take before we can be rid of the idiot in No.10? Should we wait for the IMF loan to come through? Or would the £ at 90¢ on the dollar do?
Or wait for the lights to go out because No.10 feels it is not their responsibility to coordinate energy policy?
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
Things are improving. You have spent the last month predicting nuclear war.
On the plus side, you have now covered all the possibilities so whatever the outcome you will be proven correct
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Aside from nuclear escalation the question about all those options is why hasn't he done them already? Where are all these missiles. Quite a few are being shot out of the sky.
Whatever the outcome of this war I'm sure it will help provide content for thriller writers for years to come.
Many of the older Russian missiles are pretty much fighter jet sized aircraft that play kamikaze, rather than terrain hugging cruise missiles.
Not the most difficult targets for modern air defences. Though the Ukrainians have less of the longer ranged SAMs that are especially good for knocking down such weapons.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien Also worth noting that once again, when given the opportunity to escalate against Ukraine because of a supposed red line being crossed, the Russian government actually tries to act like everything is fine. Nothing to see here.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
If the Russians had sent somebody behind the lines to spread misinformation, panic and despondency and sap our morale, it is hard to see what more they could be doing?
Best to scroll past the trans-rights posts though. The nuke stuff is fun by comparison.
"Railway traffic on a damaged road and rail bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula will resume at 8pm local time, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Russia’s transport ministry."
That seems like either a) the damage wasn't too extensive, b) they don't care if the new train makes it and won't allow filming near the damaged section, c) they're lying.
Looking at the photos and footage, I reckon (c): lying
They might run one meaningless tiny train for experimental and propaganda purposes but you wouldn’t risk anything important on that structure. You have no idea how badly it is damaged and whether more might collapse
It has been completely whacked. A truck bomb that went off as a fuel train passed. Genius
The worrying thing is that fuel transports - by road, rail and sea - are common throughout the free world. All it takes is some “accidents” (ahem) and small Armageddons could occur all over the place. Remember that Canadian village wiped out by the brakes failing on a freight train? The possibilities are endless.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
classic problem of civilisation collapse - more complexity more vulnerability. Once the crises hit anyway.
Putin isn’t a religious fundamentalist and wanting to go out in a blaze of martyrdom .
Given his obsession at not catching covid it does seem he’s into self-preservation and for this reason I’m less worried about him embarking on a course of nuclear oblivion or putting those in the command chain in a position to take him out if he orders a nuclear attack .
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Putin, and tell him he can end the war by withdrawing from Ukraine.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien Also worth noting that once again, when given the opportunity to escalate against Ukraine because of a supposed red line being crossed, the Russian government actually tries to act like everything is fine. Nothing to see here.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
Easier said than done when PB is your gentle distraction from all the other shit life throws up. You know how it is. I guess I should take up golf or something even worse than that.
Had my first game of golf since before lockdown yesterday. Didn't play very well, for some reason.
I played too. Started par par par and walked to the (pretty easy) par 3 4th thinking, "gosh, finally cracked this game after all these years!". Another par seemed inevitable. Birdie even. That's where my smug head was. Here we go ... 2 topped 6 irons into the same bush, 5 off the tee, long, chipped back to 15 feet, 3 putts, a 9 goes down on the card. Tough to take.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
He will deploy poisoned shell fish in gastropubs across North London.
The nerve toxin to be used turns people in Socialist Woke Trans Pro Immigration activists. Who don’t believe in aliens.
So we’re about to find out if Putin is minded to escalate. I can’t think of many things more provocative than blowing up the Kerch Bridge (other than large direct attacks on Moscow or St Petersburg etc)
If he does nothing, then he probably won’t do anything ever
Crucial days
That particular assertion will likely last as long as it takes for the Ukrainians to make their next advance. They mop up the Western bank of the Dnipro and that's the water supply to Crimea cut off and anything up to 15,000 of what we're led to believe are Russia's best troops captured. Bigger news than a burning bridge.
No. The Kerch Bridge is - or was - totemic. Apparently they even made a movie about it
A mere defeat on the battlefield can be reversed. This cannot. It’s a global and public humiliation
Putin opened that bridge himself by driving a lorry over it.
It was built by one of his best mates (ok, that's pretty normal in Russia).
It was his way of linking Crimea to Russia, not Ukraine.
It was also very much a pet project driven through over the objections of engineers, who said it was incredibly risky geologically given the nature of the seabed, and politicians, who pointed out it was going to make any sort of settlement in Ukraine near-impossible and would damage Russia's image in Mariupol and Melitopol by blocking the Kerch Strait.
And it was blown up the day after his birthday.
He's going to take this very personally. However, it happened some time ago and he hasn't blown the world up yet.
There will almost certainly be some kind of retaliation/escalation. Putin will want it; Russians will expect it
As the Bridge looks very much like a Uke job, my guess is that he will target Ukraine. A tactical nuke on some Ukrainian town? Or conventional missiles personally aimed at Zelensky?
Carpet bombing Lviv?
Recent history suggests they’ll lob a few missiles at a civilian target.
Yes quite likely. But I suggest it will be more than “lob a few”. It will be dramatic because it has to be
Because: if Putin doesn’t retaliate in a drastic way - at least equal to the provocation - he will be seen as weak and humiliated - by Russians as much as outsiders - and that for him means the end is near
My guess is that he will wipe out an entire Ukrainian town or some intensely important Ukrainian symbol
Odessa? Historic kyiv?
That doesn't work because he claims Ukraine is part of Russian civilization. Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great, for example. He would be wiping out Russian heritage per his own narrative.
Yes I get that
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
There is a problem here. The capability of Russian attacks is falling all the time. There are missile defence systems in place, and long range Russian attacks may not actually be able to hit their target. The attacks on Kryvy Rih and Zaporyzhiya are short range, so more difficult to stop.
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
Does this ludicrous bullshit make you feel better?
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
At this point it is a realistic assessment. I am not suggesting that NATO launches an attack, but if you were in the Kremlin you would be worried that all of your armed forces are in the same mess. Fear is a better weapon than a bomb in this circumstance.
I predict quite a lot of Ukrainians are about to die. It just depends how Putin does it
No, I think any attempt of a nuclear strike by Russia is the end of Putin.
I don’t think he will go nuclear. Not yet. Which is why I didn’t say that
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or some decapitation event in kyiv
A conventional attack will just increase western and Ukrainian resolve to defeat Putin.
Not arguing that. Just predicting what Putin will do next, as that it was the site is for: predictions
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Yes, and I'm pointing out that this is a bad prediction. Putin will do what all losers do and just declare victory, he won't let a little thing like losing prevent that.
You honestly think Putin will do… “nothing”?
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
PB really is becoming a destination for doom scrolling. Hard going at times.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
I dunno. Maybe have a word with President Biden, who says we are "close to Armageddon", and nearer to nuclear holocaust than at any time since the Cuban crisis
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
You’re stuck in the past.
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Looking at the train fire, that’s burning completely out of control and will have utterly buggered up the railway section of the bridge. The sections involved will need to be chopped out and completely replaced
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
Yes there is.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections. Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections. Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections. Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
Wise advice.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
You’re stuck in the past.
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Looking at the train fire, that’s burning completely out of control and will have utterly buggered up the railway section of the bridge. The sections involved will need to be chopped out and completely replaced
The Russians claim they will have this repaired and running again by 8pm today. That seems optimistic
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The issue is that Russia keeps doing these type of stunts, and then going in to plausible or implausible denial, to create unrest and chaos. So now people are applying the same tactic back to Russia, and its probably going to drive them completely mad.
Yes. Clever psy ops
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
Comments
Whatever the outcome of this war I'm sure it will help provide content for thriller writers for years to come.
Most people gravely underestimate the vulnerability of infrastructure like railways, electricity, telecoms, water supply etc.
The Stone Age really isn’t that far away.
I’m going to stock up on sardines and loo roll again.
But at this stage, does he care?
Lviv makes sense. Not very Russian at all, but highly important to Ukraine
I've given up the boxing. Been months now since I donned the gloves.
It looks to me a bomb or two under the roadway, detonated when the train was passing.
I wouldn't bet against the Ukrainians hitting it again and finishing the job, though.
https://m.dw.com/en/german-rail-operator-says-massive-train-disruption-caused-by-sabotage/a-63377385
It could of course have been a combo of several events. Pillars weakened by sabotage, limpet bombs underneath, the truck explodes simultaneously
Daring and skilful
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
An attack close to the border crossing where weaponry come across from Poland would make military sense, if they can reach it. But you have to wonder why they’ve not done that already. Are they actual capable?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lviv
UNESCO world heritage. Mainly Polish in culture. Never really Russian
If I was Vlad Putin I would rain down conventional missiles on Historic Lviv, obliterating its ancient core, then say “Kyiv is next and they will be nukes. Retreat now”
Scene 19, Act 1, Threads
Weight training on its own won't do. I need heavy doses of cardio not merely to stay fit, but also to stop my treat filled diet from turning me back into a sphere.
And Biden has recently warned of the risk of Armageddon should Putin go nuclear.
The biggest non-nuclear target I can think of, that the Russians can get to, is the Kakhovka Dam.
Does he have three nipples?
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
Minimal stress on ageing joints yet you can really work up a sweat and get the BPMs elevated
And you can listen to music/books, watch TV on an iPad - minimal boredom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rus'_people
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/breaking_news/article-11293851/Massive-explosion-destroys-key-bridge-linking-Crimea-Putins-Russia.html
I'm sure I saw a report this morning that there was about to be an energy bill and supply apocalypse up there because Scotland was going into a cold winter.
Perhaps a problem of wax crayon media, and the "3 hour powercut" tickling stick that media-tosspots are currently waving around?
I've lost half a stone in about 3 months of doing this. Not as much progress as I would have liked, but something.
It is frustrating the way that, as you get older, it is harder to lose weight and harder to get fit.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
There is also some evidence that Russia is running very low on working missiles and they may need them to try to stop the collapse of the Kerson front.
If the UAF now cut the Melitopol railway, then the situation for the entire Russian left flank goes from poor to terrible. The Ukrainians are saying the attack on the Kerch bridge is "the beginning". The implication is that the interdiction of supplies, however short will open a window for a further push in the coming days.
Any tactical nuke will not alter this strategic collapse, but will see a US led intervention that could completely destroy Russia´s armed forces as a coherent force. Then there is the growing sense that only a small portion of the Russian nuclear forces have been maintained. An attack of 6000 warheads is MAD, but what about 60 or even 600? There are considerable anti missile systems deployed across NATO, and if Russia uses nukes, the counter strike could be the end of Russian nuclear forces, as well as the destruction of its conventional ones.
Checkmate.
A Russia-NATO nuclear exchange is not "checkmate" and victory for Ukraine, it is the end of European and American civilisation
But seriously - I never had you pegged as a privately educated, parents established upper middle class type.
In my experience there is always bit of envy from the established upper middle to the traditional upper class. They see us all as a bunch of uncouth townies.
Whilst the situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly very dangerous, do we really think the apocalypse talk is really justified or helpful?
The former might be seen as distasteful, but it's not the same as the latter, which could be used as an attempt to suggest a racist dislike of Russians which means the opinions can be simply dismissed.
A lack of sympathy or empathy for the other 'side' in a conflict is not in itself a phobia of the type suggested.
https://www.vox.com/world/2022/10/7/23393019/how-worried-should-you-be-about-nuclear-war-biden-says-very
So, yes, I'd say gloomy talk is justifiable, and unavoidable. Whether it is helpful is up to you. If you don't like it, don't read it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47456418
Is that tough? Yes. But it's a tough job.
And apologies for the delay in apologising but my luncheon was ready.
The chance of an all out nuclear war between NATO and Russia is even lower. It still doesn’t benefit anyone any more than it did in the 60s-80s.
This year Xi Jinping did not congratulate his friend Vladimir Putin on his 70th birthday.
But two days ago Xi sent an official letter to Tajikistan's president Emomali Rahmon on his 70th birthday.
https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1578433838732087297
He will definitely do something. He has to. Russian public opinion demands it
I predict it will likely be a “conventional” attack, either a large scale attack on a city/symbol or
some decapitation event in kyiv
How that got past the ethics committee I don’t know!
When you live in England in a part where you can see beloved Scotland from your road (I am that fortunate) and you have family who love living and working in Scotland, all these thoughts seem moderate and sensible. I suspect half or more of Scots think something similar. Polling consistently suggests it.
How much damage should we all take before we can be rid of the idiot in No.10? Should we wait for the IMF loan to come through? Or would the £ at 90¢ on the dollar do?
Or wait for the lights to go out because No.10 feels it is not their responsibility to coordinate energy policy?
On the plus side, you have now covered all the possibilities so whatever the outcome you will be proven correct
And he will do something and it will be fairly spectacular. Russian voices on Twitter and telegram are screaming for revenge. He can’t ignore them
And so the remorseless logic of escalation proceeds
Not the most difficult targets for modern air defences. Though the Ukrainians have less of the longer ranged SAMs that are especially good for knocking down such weapons.
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
Also worth noting that once again, when given the opportunity to escalate against Ukraine because of a supposed red line being crossed, the Russian government actually tries to act like everything is fine. Nothing to see here.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1578742189387304960
Prime Minister Truss has already wreaked havoc in a month. Imagine the carnage after18 months.
Given his obsession at not catching covid it does seem he’s into self-preservation and for this reason I’m less worried about him embarking on a course of nuclear oblivion or putting those in the command chain in a position to take him out if he orders a nuclear attack .
#URGENT Ukrainian president's adviser alludes to Russian involvement in Crimea bridge blast
https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1578745743992819712?s=46&t=wKBgJHyPICnk0AXp0svbDQ
If true - it seems highly unlikely - it would be a false flag attack to justify massive escalation, or it would be Russian ultra-nationalists forcing Putin to go nuclear
The nerve toxin to be used turns people in Socialist Woke Trans Pro Immigration activists. Who don’t believe in aliens.
That sounds like hopecasting to me. Any nation would retaliate to an attack like this, let alone a warlike autocracy such as Putin’s Russia
*tense typing sound as in every scene of Threads*
Display text on screen:
🇺🇦🇷🇺 URGENT | The Duma totally condemns the explosion in Crimea and calls the attack a total declaration of war
https://twitter.com/newsbreakingesp/status/1578729175384748033?s=46&t=wKBgJHyPICnk0AXp0svbDQ
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Looking at the train fire, that’s burning completely out of control and will have utterly buggered up the railway section of the bridge. The sections involved will need to be chopped out and completely replaced
The Russians claim they will have this repaired and running again by 8pm today. That seems optimistic
@TripeUK
·
6h
"The good news, Mr President, is we can repair the Crimea Bridge."
"And the bad news?"
"We'll need your table."
https://twitter.com/TripeUK/status/1578647258975064064
And Putin will not be entirely sure, either. A small voice in his brain will ask if this was actually done by nutters in his own military who want to escalate
He will have to escalate/retaliate nonetheless