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Just how long can she survive? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    No we won't, Labour is a Unionist party, if nationalists don't like that they can go off to the SNP
  • kinabalu said:

    This is clearly niche but I prefer Truss to Johnson. She's terrible at the job but at least takes it seriously. Johnson was a charlatan. I just could not bear having that man as PM. The constant and overriding feeling with him was that he was taking the piss.

    As long as she does not cost the BoE £65bn every month!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Nonsense. One can be pro-Scottish and pro-Union. There is a perfectly reasonable case to be made. But Unionist parties like Labour never make it. They are viciously, poisonously anti-Scottish.
    No, that would be proposing abolition of Holyrood and expulsion of Scottish MPs from Westminster and direct rule from London
  • Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    Oh goody. Another summer ahead with no functioning government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    edited October 2022

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Hi @HYUFD . I didn't get to respond to your post of a few days ago re the different views of Conservatives/Socialists/Libertarians re Inheritance. Although we don't agree on this stuff I thought yours was a very good succinct description of the different views.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    @maxseddon
    The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928

    Hmmm.

    Incidentally, I wonder how the repairs on the Moskva are going? I recall at the time that the Kremlin line was it simply needed to be towed into Sevastopol for a couple of chaps with spanners to tighten the odd bolt, and it'd be back in action in no time. I must have missed what happened after that - does anyone happen to know?
    I believe it needed to go to the Great Repairshop in the Sky

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    kle4 said:

    When this is all over in Ukraine - and it's just moved a whole lot closer to being over - I think General Zaluzhniy is going to be the hottest ticket around the world for conferences, talks, and books. It isn't all down to him as C-in-C, but he and his staff have played an absolute blinder. It' will be absolutely fascinating to hear how they managed this, from 2014 on.

    Understandably the focus hasbeen on the President as effectively chief diplomat of the country, but there do seem to have been very impressive changes in the Ukrainian military in 8 years from most accounts.
    In 30 years or so historians will have a fuller picture

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
    His turnip looked pretty lethal.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
    With friends like the Oaf, who needs enemies?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
  • Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    Incorrect, and sometimes your taking everything personal so lets launch a vendetta is problematic...
    He was an absolute dickhead to a number of people on many occasions - and an incredible snob.

    I don't take anything personally except when people are actually rude to me - as you would react I am sure.

    And no doubt people will pipe up about ideology. You and I are quite aligned on ideology but don't get on too well but I get on very well with HYUFD say or Richard. There are some people here who are just rude for no reason, I believe in calling that out.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Would anybody put it past Elon Musk to sell kit to one side in a war and the off switch to the other side?

    Channelling Basil Zaharoff maybe?

    That is an incredibly unlikely scenario. The executive powers of the US government are very extensive regarding matters such as space, defense, intelligence, and communications. If Musk starts screwing around he can end up in some very hot water very quickly. Musk is just about dumb enough to do something really stupid, but I assume his colleagues are well aware of how carefully they have to toe the line.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    What ho!

    I’m always up for the latest gossip about Little Lord Fauntleroy, Aunt Agatha and General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
    Then she likely loses a confidence vote next summer and a new leader, likely Wallace or Sunak or a combination of the 2 with Sunak as Chancellor again replaces her
  • Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    Incorrect, and sometimes your taking everything personal so lets launch a vendetta is problematic...
    He was an absolute dickhead to a number of people on many occasions - and an incredible snob.

    I don't take anything personally except when people are actually rude to me - as you would react I am sure.

    And no doubt people will pipe up about ideology. You and I are quite aligned on ideology but don't get on too well but I get on very well with HYUFD say or Richard. There are some people here who are just rude for no reason, I believe in calling that out.
    We don't get on too well? Why not? This is politics, and life, and stuff happens that winds people up. I disagree with quite a lot of people on here politically but then again I disagree with some of my own former views which were bloody stupid.

    Life is too short. Take a breath and accept the differences. Charles had life experiences and perspectives that added something to this place. We are better the broader the membership are.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    The "advantage" she enjoys is the 2019 elections were so bad for the Conservatives it's hard to envisage them doing any worse.

    Could the Conservatives regain Guildford or Waverley from the current RA/LD coalitions? Looks a tall order on paper but that would be clear progress.

    To stand still or even go backwards would be very bad - it should also be remembered Labour had a bad night too losing votes and making a net loss of seats so it's perfectly possible any progress the Conservatives make against the LDs and Residents in the south might be offset by losses to Labour in the north.

    Estimated vote shares were 28% Conservative, 28% Labour, 19% LD so there's your base (strong vote for Independents, Residents and others) for expectation management.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Starmergasm's a new one. Is that a PB original?
  • We don't get on too well? Why not? This is politics, and life, and stuff happens that winds people up. I disagree with quite a lot of people on here politically but then again I disagree with some of my own former views which were bloody stupid.

    Life is too short. Take a breath and accept the differences. Charles had life experiences and perspectives that added something to this place. We are better the broader the membership are.

    We don't get on too well because I don't think you like the way I express myself, these "vendettas" you call them you have inferred as much a few times. I have no issues with you myself, I think you post an awful lot of sense. I cannot be liked by everyone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
    Then she likely loses a confidence vote next summer and a new leader, likely Wallace or Sunak or a combination of the 2 with Sunak as Chancellor again replaces her
    You don't think the Conservative parliamentary party will collapse, resulting in a general election?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Starmergasm's a new one. Is that a PB original?
    Wait until Starmergeddon.

    Or if he goes very right wing, Der Starmer.
  • We don't get on too well? Why not? This is politics, and life, and stuff happens that winds people up. I disagree with quite a lot of people on here politically but then again I disagree with some of my own former views which were bloody stupid.

    Life is too short. Take a breath and accept the differences. Charles had life experiences and perspectives that added something to this place. We are better the broader the membership are.

    We don't get on too well because I don't think you like the way I express myself, these "vendettas" you call them you have inferred as much a few times. I have no issues with you myself, I think you post an awful lot of sense. I cannot be liked by everyone.
    A good friend of mine throws the occasional diva strop. He's still my friend...
  • We don't get on too well? Why not? This is politics, and life, and stuff happens that winds people up. I disagree with quite a lot of people on here politically but then again I disagree with some of my own former views which were bloody stupid.

    Life is too short. Take a breath and accept the differences. Charles had life experiences and perspectives that added something to this place. We are better the broader the membership are.

    We don't get on too well because I don't think you like the way I express myself, these "vendettas" you call them you have inferred as much a few times. I have no issues with you myself, I think you post an awful lot of sense. I cannot be liked by everyone.
    A good friend of mine throws the occasional diva strop. He's still my friend...
    Okay well in that case I am wrong, I am sorry for any misunderstanding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
    Then she likely loses a confidence vote next summer and a new leader, likely Wallace or Sunak or a combination of the 2 with Sunak as Chancellor again replaces her
    You don't think the Conservative parliamentary party will collapse, resulting in a general election?
    Which would still be a better result for the Tories under them most likely than under Truss if the 2023 local elections are a disaster
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
    Disagree. Using tactical devices won't change the bigger picture on the battlefield and will make Russia far more of a pariah than it is now, with dire consequences for its economy. A strategic exchange means no Russia at all. Putin can continue to indulge his Peter the Great fantasies (and maybe even find another, weaker neighbour to beat the shit out of to satisfy his desire for Lebensraum) if he's still alive. He can't if he's a charred skeleton and Russia itself has been turned into one vast sheet of radioactive glass.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Nonsense. One can be pro-Scottish and pro-Union. There is a perfectly reasonable case to be made. But Unionist parties like Labour never make it. They are viciously, poisonously anti-Scottish.
    No, that would be proposing abolition of Holyrood and expulsion of Scottish MPs from Westminster and direct rule from London
    Glad to see you showing your true colours Mini Franco.

    Unfortunately for crypto-fascists like you, Direct Rule is profoundly unpopular:

    The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.

    Independence 52%
    Devolution (the status quo) 38%
    Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%

    I love your novel advocacy of:

    A. Abolition of Holyrood, and
    B. Expulsion of Scottish MPs from Westminster

    😄😄😄

    One conventionally proposes either A or B. I’ve never actually seen both advocated before. Every day is a school day.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Starmergasm's a new one. Is that a PB original?
    No, these things, like the Cleggasm, are always gasms arn’t they?

    It just sounds out of place, equating Starmer with excitement and earthquake in UK politics - the mind struggles to make sense of it 😉

    What about the Keiruption in the polling? I can at least imagine Chris Mason using that.
  • HYUFD said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
    I'm so bored of hearing about Putin's nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons didn't help the USSR in Afghanistan, the USA in Afghanistan, the USA in Vietnam. We have nuclear weapons too, the USA do too. Nuclear weapons won't help Putin dig himself out of this hole, anymore than it defeated the Taliban or Vietcong.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,876
    Am I right in thinking the Ukrainian advance has reached Blahodatne which is 20 miles or so from Kherson?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Starmergasm's a new one. Is that a PB original?
    Wait until Starmergeddon.

    Or if he goes very right wing, Der Starmer.
    Starmer will soon be following his pal into the upper echelons of Facebook.

    Cleggasm, then Claggageddon, then the Great Rock 'n' Roll Swindle
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    HYUFD said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
    I'm so bored of hearing about Putin's nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons didn't help the USSR in Afghanistan, the USA in Afghanistan, the USA in Vietnam. We have nuclear weapons too, the USA do too. Nuclear weapons won't help Putin dig himself out of this hole, anymore than it defeated the Taliban or Vietcong.
    France didn’t even nuke Algeria at a time when a. It had just acquired nuclear weapons, b. it was badly losing the war of independence , c. Algeria was officially part of France.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    The exceptions that prove the rule. How many tech billionaires and Premier League footballers are there in each generation, and how many proles are there fretting about how to juggle housing costs, food prices and electricity bills?

    Besides, most of the UK's national wealth is tied up in piles of bricks rather than ones and zeroes.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    L
    You are the only poster who is consistently unpleasant about people.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've decided the Kerch Bridge attack is a false flag attack.

    Russia blew it up.

    My reasoning is "Wake UP SHEEPLE!"
  • The evidence seems to be that Starmer will be crap. I do not yet see that evidence.

    He lead the CPS very successfully. A position he got to from growing up poor and working class, he got there entirely on merit and hard work.

    He took over a party which had just lost in a landslide, from 25 points behind to 30 points ahead. He essentially resolved anti-Semitism, re-established Labour's reputation for defence, strength against Russia, membership of NATO. He took over the NEC, changed the rules, essentially moved the Left out of the party for good, brought back the most talented MPs into the cabinet, got rid of Corbyn. All in three years.

    What is that if not talented?
  • Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    L
    You are the only poster who is consistently unpleasant about people.
    About people that are nasty - yes I am.

    You tried to imply I was being nasty to Moon yesterday, why would I be so inclined to get her back here if I hated her? I was an army of one trying to get her back after she was wrongfully banned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Situation in Cresslough Donegal is getting worse. Seven confirmed dead, more fatalities expected or expected to be confirmed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183510

    A gas explosion in a petrol station is always going to be nasty, but this looks to have been really spectacularly awful.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    Wise advice.

    Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.

    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    I think Alan Sugar would be very flattered to be included in that list!
  • pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Nah, it is the way it is without proper wealth taxes and an ultra low inflation environment put in to protect asset prices (proxy for establishment votes) ahead of earnings and productivity. Nothing inevitable about it being this extreme, the last decade has been very rare in terms of share of wealth going to the elite vs workers, hence the widespread increase in disillusionment in western democracies.

    The issue is the politicians are selling the wrong solutions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,329

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    When @Leon wakes up we'll be told to "Brace!!"


    BRACE, MUTHAFUCKERS
  • Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    Wise advice.

    Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
    So yes it's about Independence for you. No surprise.

    Scottish Labour is pro union, if you don't like that, don't vote for it. But 30% of people are currently saying they'd vote Scottish Labour, more than it has ever got by being wishy washy or even slightly pro independence under Corbyn
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    The "advantage" she enjoys is the 2019 elections were so bad for the Conservatives it's hard to envisage them doing any worse.

    Could the Conservatives regain Guildford or Waverley from the current RA/LD coalitions? Looks a tall order on paper but that would be clear progress.

    To stand still or even go backwards would be very bad - it should also be remembered Labour had a bad night too losing votes and making a net loss of seats so it's perfectly possible any progress the Conservatives make against the LDs and Residents in the south might be offset by losses to Labour in the north.

    Estimated vote shares were 28% Conservative, 28% Labour, 19% LD so there's your base (strong vote for Independents, Residents and others) for expectation management.
    It's worth pointing out that despite being a bad election (lost 44 councils and 1,330 councillors), the Cons still had the most councils and councillors in 2019.

    Looking at 2023, there are still plenty of councils that the Cons run that they should be worried about and are all up:

    N Lincs
    S Gloucs
    Amber Valley
    Canterbury
    Dartford
    Dover
    Erewash
    Great Yarmouth
    Newark and Sherwood
    NE Derbyshire
    N Warks
    Rushcliffe
    Stafford

    And that's just looking at the battle vs Lab
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    The PB brains trust says there’s not going to be another independence referendum. Just ask everyone’s favourite Franco fan. He’s only made the same post 1,472 times, and I’m sure he’s bursting to break the 1,500 barrier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    The evidence seems to be that Starmer will be crap. I do not yet see that evidence.

    He lead the CPS very successfully. A position he got to from growing up poor and working class, he got there entirely on merit and hard work.

    That's not really true. CPS wasn't especially well run on his watch. However, in his favour we should note that he did better than pretty much any of his predecessors. That suggests the organisation not the chief is the problem.

    His parents also weren't really 'poor and working class.' They were skilled professionals in well paid jobs and his father held a pretty senior position. His background is pretty much comparable to Theresa May's, possibly even Liz Truss's.

    As against that, I agree there's ample evidence he isn't stupid. He wouldn't even have been considered for DPP if he was and certainly his law career was built on hard work not personal connections.

    More usefully though, he seems to be willing to pause and think rather than flail under pressure. Which is what Truss does...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,082
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    Did they *create* the wealth, or were they just lucky to be in the right place at the right time, and able to prosper from monopolistic practices? It’s pretty apparent that Musk, as your first example, is not some profound genius. He was born rich and had one good decision to buy out another company’s innovation.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    The evidence seems to be that Starmer will be crap. I do not yet see that evidence.

    He lead the CPS very successfully. A position he got to from growing up poor and working class, he got there entirely on merit and hard work.

    He took over a party which had just lost in a landslide, from 25 points behind to 30 points ahead. He essentially resolved anti-Semitism, re-established Labour's reputation for defence, strength against Russia, membership of NATO. He took over the NEC, changed the rules, essentially moved the Left out of the party for good, brought back the most talented MPs into the cabinet, got rid of Corbyn. All in three years.

    What is that if not talented?

    He’s a competent administrator and has proven to be an effective politician tactician.

    Those are not skills that make someone a good prime minister. Liz Truss, for example. Is arguably both of those.

    I’ve seen no evidence that he can communicate effectively and if he has a strategic vision he’s been hiding it carefully
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Nah, it is the way it is without proper wealth taxes and an ultra low inflation environment put in to protect asset prices (proxy for establishment votes) ahead of earnings and productivity. Nothing inevitable about it being this extreme, the last decade has been very rare in terms of share of wealth going to the elite vs workers, hence the widespread increase in disillusionment in western democracies.

    The issue is the politicians are selling the wrong solutions.
    It depends what you mean by the wrong solutions. Homeowning old people and their expectant heirs desire continuously inflating house prices and slim or nonexistent taxation of legacies. Which is precisely what they're getting.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    I have no idea where the truth lies here, but let's say the 82% thing is true in some sense.

    But what of the next step? All that cash and assets, except that which is stuck in a top hat under the bed, is spent either on investments, all of which are designed to create wealth otherwise it wouldn't happen, or stuff, which, whether socks or yachts or expensive living, keeps the industrial, leisure and retail show on the road.

    It's not that I like it or approve - it seems revolting to me, but a fairly small elite having lots more financial clout than Joe Public isn't new. It has, SFAICS, been the bedrock of English society at least since 1066.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    Here he is running the numbers.

    image
  • ydoethur said:

    The evidence seems to be that Starmer will be crap. I do not yet see that evidence.

    He lead the CPS very successfully. A position he got to from growing up poor and working class, he got there entirely on merit and hard work.

    That's not really true. CPS wasn't especially well run on his watch. However, in his favour we should note that he did better than pretty much any of his predecessors. That suggests the organisation not the chief is the problem.

    His parents also weren't really 'poor and working class.' They were skilled professionals in well paid jobs and his father held a pretty senior position. His background is pretty much comparable to Theresa May's, possibly even Liz Truss's.

    As against that, I agree there's ample evidence he isn't stupid. He wouldn't even have been considered for DPP if he was and certainly his law career was built on hard work not personal connections.

    More usefully though, he seems to be willing to pause and think rather than flail under pressure. Which is what Truss does...
    I don't agree with that, he came from very modest beginnings - I know this from a first hand source. I would not wish to identify them but I hope that my postings from inside his team will confirm their credibility.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    The PB brains trust says there’s not going to be another independence referendum. Just ask everyone’s favourite Franco fan. He’s only made the same post 1,472 times, and I’m sure he’s bursting to break the 1,500 barrier.
    So you don’t need to answer my hypothetical question then?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,822
    Also, AMD basically confirmed what I said a month ago that semiconductors are heading from famine to feast. The age of high prices is over and consumer demand is now lower than supply. Nvidia are on a hiding to nothing with their mad GPU pricing.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    L
    You are the only poster who is consistently unpleasant about people.
    About people that are nasty - yes I am.

    You tried to imply I was being nasty to Moon yesterday, why would I be so inclined to get her back here if I hated her? I was an army of one trying to get her back after she was wrongfully banned.
    I don’t recall @Charles ever being nasty. Yes he had a particular posting style hat could jar (although he once said that he preferred to be open about his life experiences so saw it as factual rather than boasting).

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    There must be a question in peoples minds when they're viewing the standing of a party which isn't nationalist when there is a nationalist party. Are the non-nationalists anti-nationalists or or what?
    Independence is normal.

    It is British Nationalism which is deviant.

    Principal parties ranked by adherence to nationalism, from greatest to least:

    1. Conservatives
    2. Labour
    3. Liberal Democrats
    4. SNP
    5. Greens
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss likely has until the 2023 local elections to turn it round

    And if she does worse than 2019? And what about the eight by elections which her predecessor is arranging for her?
    Then she likely loses a confidence vote next summer and a new leader, likely Wallace or Sunak or a combination of the 2 with Sunak as Chancellor again replaces her
    It's going to happen anyway, so JFDI.....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,082

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    Did people see the recent Quebec elections? The PQ, the SNP equivalent, continued their slide down.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,790

    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1

    The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
    Dolphins, being intelligent beasts, are probably swimming happily along the north Turkish seaside, entertaining the tourists!
    .... After a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner,"
  • But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    Leon said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    When @Leon wakes up we'll be told to "Brace!!"


    BRACE, MUTHAFUCKERS
    Yep. The Kerch Bridge needs bracing

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    SLab don't need to be pro-independence. They just need to be proactively attempting to even-handedly address the Scottish constitutional question, given that it is still the only game in town in Scottish politics and is effectively log-jamming the system - largely at the expense of SLab for the most part - until it is properly addressed one way or another.

    Simply putting the fingers in the ears and/or trying to lay the smack down on the pesky Nats harder than the Tories has been a spectacular failure for them.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    Did they *create* the wealth, or were they just lucky to be in the right place at the right time, and able to prosper from monopolistic practices? It’s pretty apparent that Musk, as your first example, is not some profound genius. He was born rich and had one good decision to buy out another company’s innovation.
    Gates built a very effective company over a long period of time even if he bought the original innovation. Bezos was the most visionary and risk taking and has created an incredible business by taking well judged risks.

    I do not rate Musk particularly highly (although I don’t believe he was born particularly rich?)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    No we won't, Labour is a Unionist party, if nationalists don't like that they can go off to the SNP
    Hang on a mo, young HY. I know we are going full steam ahead towards a Tory dictatorship, but I don't really think you can dictate like that to members of other parties about what they can and cannot do. Not yet, anyway.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    The PB brains trust says there’s not going to be another independence referendum. Just ask everyone’s favourite Franco fan. He’s only made the same post 1,472 times, and I’m sure he’s bursting to break the 1,500 barrier.
    So you don’t need to answer my hypothetical question then?
    I’ve read your question about seven times now, and I still don’t understand it. I must be having a dim moment. I think you’re asking: if Scotland loses again, will we just let England roll us over and roughly shaft our peachy arses?

    The answer is: no.
  • Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    Charles was very informative on matters medical. For that insight alone he is greatly missed.

    He also had class.

    Admittedly, upper class. But there are enough on here with no class at all.
    You call it class, I call it arrogance. But we can agree to disagree
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    L
    You are the only poster who is consistently unpleasant about people.
    About people that are nasty - yes I am.

    You tried to imply I was being nasty to Moon yesterday, why would I be so inclined to get her back here if I hated her? I was an army of one trying to get her back after she was wrongfully banned.
    I don’t recall @Charles ever being nasty. Yes he had a particular posting style hat could jar (although he once said that he preferred to be open about his life experiences so saw it as factual rather than boasting).

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit
    I thought Charles very insightful and articulate, though prone to name-dropping as others have said. However, I valued his contributions and would love to see him return.

    As to why he left is beyond me - he doxxed himself long before his spat with Ishmael. Though like a certain other poster who keeps popping up under various names, I think if he returned most people who know his IRL identity would be respectful enough not to discuss it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    Here he is running the numbers.

    image
    TBH, comparing it to the mighty Chockablock overstates Electoral Calculus' sophistication. Ben Walker's model at the New Statesman is good and I liked Flavible (gone rather quiet recently), but Baxter's model never passes the smell test for me.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
    I wasn’t around much this summer so only heard about it after the event.

    But yes consistently calling her a liar is nasty and bullying. Regardless of what you’ve done in the past that sort of behaviour should be “called out” as I believe a poster put it recently
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
    I wasn’t around much this summer so only heard about it after the event.

    But yes consistently calling her a liar is nasty and bullying. Regardless of what you’ve done in the past that sort of behaviour should be “called out” as I believe a poster put it recently
    But don’t I get everything completely wrong though 🥹
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,082

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    Did they *create* the wealth, or were they just lucky to be in the right place at the right time, and able to prosper from monopolistic practices? It’s pretty apparent that Musk, as your first example, is not some profound genius. He was born rich and had one good decision to buy out another company’s innovation.
    Gates built a very effective company over a long period of time even if he bought the original innovation. Bezos was the most visionary and risk taking and has created an incredible business by taking well judged risks.

    I do not rate Musk particularly highly (although I don’t believe he was born particularly rich?)
    His Dad co-owned an emerald mine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    No we won't, Labour is a Unionist party, if nationalists don't like that they can go off to the SNP
    Hang on a mo, young HY. I know we are going full steam ahead towards a Tory dictatorship, but I don't really think you can dictate like that to members of other parties about what they can and cannot do. Not yet, anyway.
    He’s been working up a sweat over General Franco’s manifesto again.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    The PB brains trust says there’s not going to be another independence referendum. Just ask everyone’s favourite Franco fan. He’s only made the same post 1,472 times, and I’m sure he’s bursting to break the 1,500 barrier.
    So you don’t need to answer my hypothetical question then?
    I’ve read your question about seven times now, and I still don’t understand it. I must be having a dim moment. I think you’re asking: if Scotland loses again, will we just let England roll us over and roughly shaft our peachy arses?

    The answer is: no.
    What might have swung such support around SNP after the last one was the thinking and the feeling the last Indy Ref vote was stolen, by lies about the SNPs plan, by lies about a promised grand influx of power instead of independence to split off those with doubts, by lies from an unholy alliance of Con and Lab and Lib concocting this steal together.

    But if the next one is lost - which I’m not saying it’s certain to be - but if it is, it can be lost this time more clearly on basis of SNP and their plans for independence, and promises financial security and economic growth when independent, just not convincing the electorate to take the plunge. The whole psychology around the loss might be very different next time. Next time the SNP could take the hit for the independence referendum failing.

    It’s a consideration I suppose?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,790

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.

    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    I think Alan Sugar would be very flattered to be included in that list!
    I suspect he'd be hurt not to be listed first...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    kinabalu said:

    This is clearly niche but I prefer Truss to Johnson. She's terrible at the job but at least takes it seriously. Johnson was a charlatan. I just could not bear having that man as PM. The constant and overriding feeling with him was that he was taking the piss.

    As long as she does not cost the BoE £65bn every month!
    The country and its economy can recover from her incompetence. I was less certain about whether it could recover from any continuation of Johnson’s corrupt and anti-constitutional modus operandi.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    kyf_100 said:

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    I do with @Charles would come back. He definitely added value here.
    He was a twat. Good riddance
    L
    You are the only poster who is consistently unpleasant about people.
    About people that are nasty - yes I am.

    You tried to imply I was being nasty to Moon yesterday, why would I be so inclined to get her back here if I hated her? I was an army of one trying to get her back after she was wrongfully banned.
    I don’t recall @Charles ever being nasty. Yes he had a particular posting style hat could jar (although he once said that he preferred to be open about his life experiences so saw it as factual rather than boasting).

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit
    I thought Charles very insightful and articulate, though prone to name-dropping as others have said. However, I valued his contributions and would love to see him return.

    As to why he left is beyond me - he doxxed himself long before his spat with Ishmael. Though like a certain other poster who keeps popping up under various names, I think if he returned most people who know his IRL identity would be respectful enough not to discuss it.
    I would certainly hope so. If someone changes their username that should be respected.

    If I remember his last post it wasn’t doxxing - he was open about that - it was that @IshmaelZ threatened to talk to his cousins about what he was saying
  • I would certainly hope so. If someone changes their username that should be respected.

    If I remember his last post it wasn’t doxxing - he was open about that - it was that @IshmaelZ threatened to talk to his cousins about what he was saying

    ROFL, what a lad
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
    I wasn’t around much this summer so only heard about it after the event.

    But yes consistently calling her a liar is nasty and bullying. Regardless of what you’ve done in the past that sort of behaviour should be “called out” as I believe a poster put it recently
    But don’t I get everything completely wrong though 🥹
    Not always - but even when you do you post your thinking and logic. There’s always value when someone shows their working 😜

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    ohnotnow said:

    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1

    The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
    Dolphins, being intelligent beasts, are probably swimming happily along the north Turkish seaside, entertaining the tourists!
    .... After a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double backward somersault through a hoop while whistling the "Star Spangled Banner,"
    The Red Flag surely, if they were trained by the Russian military. Perhaps the Russian military have a different anthem nowadays of course!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    I think your argument is, just being the party of independence will sustain the SNP, regardless of any scandals, corruption, or next leader being nowhere as talented as Nicola Sturgeon, defying all political gravity for ever and ever?

    But what about the other way round? Is there no point where SNP popularity wanes due to holding power in Scotland so long, and not so much voter interest in independence drop, but the priority the voters then have for it? It’s sustained maybe by SNP convincing it’s just around the corner, that can change, the neccesity of achieving independence could wane?

    We can see both with the Starmergasm because Truss is so bad and when the SNP took such a firm grip of Scottish politics and the return of MPs, when things move it moves quickly - so for example, maybe something like a second Indy ref lost by a clear margin might have a dramatic impact on SNP support?
    Okay, I’ll ask same question in a more succinct less rambling way.

    So the next Indy ref, which could be just 3 or 4 years away, is lost 59/41 - that result won’t impact at all on subsequent SNP support in UK and and Scottish Parliament elections? It will be business as usual straight after such Indy ref defeat?

    The realisation in voters minds independence rejected again, this time decisively, so if it ever happens it’s not going to happen for a generation or more, won’t lead to drop in SNP support in the short to medium term, allowing other parties to seize back some Westminster seats, perhaps even take control of the Scottish Parliament? We can definitely rule this scenario out?

    If we can’t rule this scenario out, it makes it very important for SNP to win the next Indy ref, or at very least, not to lose it by a clear and decisive margin, wouldn’t it?
    Did people see the recent Quebec elections? The PQ, the SNP equivalent, continued their slide down.
    Why do we think that is though?

    For what reason do we doubt Stu’s edict: if you are the SNP your popularity will be ever lasting and an eternal flame?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
    The numbers don't surprise me. Once somebody's wealth crosses a certain line (I don't know where that is exactly, perhaps about £5,000,000) then you can live very comfortably off investments and always keep getting richer. Barring civilizational collapse, one can only go backwards through profligacy, extreme stupidity, or deliberately giving ones wealth away.

    The entire economy is structured to prioritise the interest of asset owners over that of wage earners, with the latter paying for everything. It's just the way it is.
    Most new wealth and assets are created by billionaire entrepreneurs like Musk or Gates or Sugar or Bezos.
    Did they *create* the wealth, or were they just lucky to be in the right place at the right time, and able to prosper from monopolistic practices? It’s pretty apparent that Musk, as your first example, is not some profound genius. He was born rich and had one good decision to buy out another company’s innovation.
    Gates built a very effective company over a long period of time even if he bought the original innovation. Bezos was the most visionary and risk taking and has created an incredible business by taking well judged risks.

    I do not rate Musk particularly highly
    (although I don’t believe he was born particularly rich?)
    His Dad co-owned an emerald mine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk
    Fair enough. I was muddling him up with Peter Thiel
  • @MoonRabbit if any of my posts have come across as bullying then I will offer you my full apology, it is not how I want to ever come across so I am sorry if you have felt that way. I will withdraw my accusations about you being a liar and I will not bring up the issue again.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    I would certainly hope so. If someone changes their username that should be respected.

    If I remember his last post it wasn’t doxxing - he was open about that - it was that @IshmaelZ threatened to talk to his cousins about what he was saying

    ROFL, what a lad
    He was pretty indiscreet on occasion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    @trussliz
    For the first time in over 20 years, millions of people in the USA will be able to enjoy high quality British lamb.

    This milestone marks a well-deserved boost to our rural economy and we will continue to secure more growth opportunities for Britain’s brilliant food producers.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1578704018641387520
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
    I wasn’t around much this summer so only heard about it after the event.

    But yes consistently calling her a liar is nasty and bullying. Regardless of what you’ve done in the past that sort of behaviour should be “called out” as I believe a poster put it recently
    But don’t I get everything completely wrong though 🥹
    Not always - but even when you do you post your thinking and logic. There’s always value when someone shows their working 😜

    Yes. That’s what this place is about isn’t it - not being afraid to share your workings out with others, so it can be explained why you are wrong.
  • I would certainly hope so. If someone changes their username that should be respected.

    If I remember his last post it wasn’t doxxing - he was open about that - it was that @IshmaelZ threatened to talk to his cousins about what he was saying

    ROFL, what a lad
    He was pretty indiscreet on occasion.
    I think that's hilarious, Ishmael does make me laugh
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    HYUFD said:

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    Baldrick however did not have nuclear weapons unlike Putin and they are still his last resort if he faces total defeat
    I'm so bored of hearing about Putin's nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons didn't help the USSR in Afghanistan, the USA in Afghanistan, the USA in Vietnam. We have nuclear weapons too, the USA do too. Nuclear weapons won't help Putin dig himself out of this hole, anymore than it defeated the Taliban or Vietcong.
    It’s a beautiful morning out here in the Atlantic. I just hope I’m not one of the last tourists to see New York.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    But yea - you and @Anabobazina were bullying @MoonRabbit

    Bullying someone who I worked hard to get back here after they were banned, interesting logic there matey. You and others just sat around whilst she wasn't allowed to post and now I'm the problem.

    You have a good day there
    I wasn’t around much this summer so only heard about it after the event.

    But yes consistently calling her a liar is nasty and bullying. Regardless of what you’ve done in the past that sort of behaviour should be “called out” as I believe a poster put it recently
    But don’t I get everything completely wrong though 🥹
    Not always - but even when you do you post your thinking and logic. There’s always value when someone shows their working 😜

    Yes. That’s what this place is about isn’t it - not being afraid to share your workings out with others, so it can be explained why you are wrong.
    The number of smart and informed people on here is extraordinary. It’s a fascinating place to come
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    edited October 2022
    Been out on a run (14 superb miles through the Fens), so I don't know if this has been posted:

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1578634983714979840

    The moment of the explosion on the Kerch Bridge. It does look like a truck blew up, but that could just be unfortunate timing (a charge blowing or missile hitting at the 'right' moment - though not right for the people in the truck). But in the second clip, there is already an orange glow when the explosion occurs, giving the impression that something (the train?) is already on fire. The clip also shows two trucks on the bridge; the first that is, or is near, the source of the first explosion, and a second behind it. Perhaps the glow was the train on fire after the first explosion?

    So I'm veering towards a couple of truck explosions, or a boat going pop underneath. But I'd expect the latter to be more difficult than the former.
This discussion has been closed.