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Just how long can she survive? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
Just how long can she survive? – politicalbetting.com

Ouch for Liz Truss. Although the good news for her she has slashed the Labour lead from 33% last week to a mangeable 30% Labour lead this week with @YouGov. https://t.co/mnigh02wOq pic.twitter.com/9wKS5LOE7T

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    edited October 8
    First?

    Edit: Yes!

    How unfortunate that a fuel train just happened to be crossing the bridge at the time of the accident.
  • The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    This has been the best week of the war, since the Russian withdrawal from around Kiev at the start of April. A brilliant effort from everyone involved! Kherson city next.

    Speaking as an ignoramus, if Kherson were to be recaptured (and I assume Russia is dug in pretty tight) that feels like something not even Russia could spin as a temporary setback, an genuine crunch point determining how they will react to defeat - isn't it the biggest city to have been taken?
    If you exclude Mariupol.......

    I would give Stewart Jackson a break. I don't remember him being any more than feisty and as we now know there were quite a few contributors coming from the Palace of Westminster, it's worth respecting the fact he didn't hide behind anonymity.
    I've met him in person, let's just say he was no Nick Palmer MP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 8
    The main argument for her be able to stay in post is that the Tory Party would look rather silly having another leader following all the changes in a very short period.

    Alas for them, that ship has sailed. They look really silly for electing her anyway.

    If you fall into a large dung heap through a mis-step, you don't look less silly for walking around covered in shit until your next scheduled bath 24 hours later. If anything, rather the reverse.

    That's where they are.

    They won't defenestrate her, but they will still look rather silly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    edited October 8
    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    They may not be able to go on like this for two years (though I disagree), but they can go on like it for a long time.

    I don't think there's any chance she's gone until at least May, when the recession and the drubbing in the locals have them staring apocalypse in the face. Even then I'm not convinced - there's no clear replacement, as jonathan notes, and the members cannot be trusted to select, even if the MPs are also suspect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    We are 32 days into the Truss era, and we have a cabinet minister calling for new advisers. I think this may be a record. https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1578675747543142400/photo/1
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Hapless, helpless, hopeless, useless.

    But enough of Putin.

    Truss's main defence is that her party is hopelessly divided and may be incapable either of agreeing to dump here or on who should come next. If a new leader isn't installed unopposed then they have another three or four months of lame duck Liz presiding over open warfare, with the very real risk that hard right wing MPs and the loopy codgers in the selectorate double down and pick Braverman at the end of it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is further confirmation of what a fair few of us have been saying all along: Crimea is Ukraine and will be liberated.

    Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.

    Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.

    When @Leon wakes up we'll be told to "Brace!!"

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    This has been the best week of the war, since the Russian withdrawal from around Kiev at the start of April. A brilliant effort from everyone involved! Kherson city next.

    Speaking as an ignoramus, if Kherson were to be recaptured (and I assume Russia is dug in pretty tight) that feels like something not even Russia could spin as a temporary setback, an genuine crunch point determining how they will react to defeat - isn't it the biggest city to have been taken?
    If you exclude Mariupol.......

    I would give Stewart Jackson a break. I don't remember him being any more than feisty and as we now know there were quite a few contributors coming from the Palace of Westminster, it's worth respecting the fact he didn't hide behind anonymity.
    I've met him in person, let's just say he was no Nick Palmer MP.
    Stewart Jackson, I've had a drink with Nick Palmer. I know Nick Palmer. Nick Palmer is a friend of mine. Stewart Jackson, you're no Nick Palmer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Big problem for government. Interest rates were expected to rise anyway - but not by as much as they now will - meaning hikes will be laid at Tories’ door. https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1578656008053800961
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    Mogg
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Kwasi Kwarteng travels to Washington next week for the IMF’s annual meetings with relations in as parlous a state as they have been since the UK begged for a bail out in 1976 https://trib.al/BARPxZI
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Jonathan said:

    She will survive for as long as the Conservative party cannot agree on a replacement.

    Or splits!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    To be or not to be, that is the question.

    Is the Conservative Party, nay the country, going to be held hostage for two years by 81,000 Tory members?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Is Johnson interested in staying in Parliament beyond the next election (assuming that any king across the water fantasies that he may harbour do not come to fruition over the next few months?) And if so, will a sympathetic local association with a vacancy allow him to jump ship to somewhere likely to hold out against a crushing defeat? Not convinced on either count.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    @maxseddon
    The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    - “I think that by some distance she is the worst of the four Tory PMs we have had since 2016…”

    It takes a special kind of stupid to be worse than The Oaf.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    @maxseddon
    The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928

    Ho ho. Yes, only a surface wound:

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578605975979708416?s=46&t=9-iRVXvIc0YAmbxm-XX9LQ
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    To be or not to be, that is the question.

    Is the Conservative Party, nay the country, going to be held hostage for two years by 81,000 Tory members?

    Yes, probably.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    What's Andy Coulson doing these days?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    I think it was a relatively low chance he would have been restanding anyway, but the way things are going, definitely not.

    Still, one month until revised boundaries are uploaded.
  • @maxseddon
    The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928

    Hmmm.

    Incidentally, I wonder how the repairs on the Moskva are going? I recall at the time that the Kremlin line was it simply needed to be towed into Sevastopol for a couple of chaps with spanners to tighten the odd bolt, and it'd be back in action in no time. I must have missed what happened after that - does anyone happen to know?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    When this is all over in Ukraine - and it's just moved a whole lot closer to being over - I think General Zaluzhniy is going to be the hottest ticket around the world for conferences, talks, and books. It isn't all down to him as C-in-C, but he and his staff have played an absolute blinder. It' will be absolutely fascinating to hear how they managed this, from 2014 on.

    Understandably the focus hasbeen on the President as effectively chief diplomat of the country, but there do seem to have been very impressive changes in the Ukrainian military in 8 years from most accounts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    UK government: 'We're going to issue more oil and gas licenses.'
    Munich Re: 'Yeah, we're not going to be insuring that.' https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4057411/global-briefing BG+
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    In a devastating breach of operational security it has been revealed how the Ukrainians did it

    https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578648600665411584
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    YouGov Westminster voting intention *Scotland* (30 Sep - 4 Oct)

    SNP: 45% (-1 from 18-23 May)
    Lab: 31% (+9)
    Con: 12% (-7)
    Lib Dem: 7% (+1)
    Green: 3% (=)
    Reform UK: 1% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/08/scottish-voting-intention-tories-see-worst-perform https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1578680204754825217/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    YouGov Holyrood voting intention (30 Sep - 4 Oct)

    Constituency / Regional vote

    SNP: 49% / 38%
    Lab: 26% / 24%
    Con: 13% / 14%
    Lib Dem: 8% / 8%
    Green: 2% / 12%

    Best Labour constituency score since 2015
    Worst Tory scores since 2014

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/08/scottish-voting-intention-tories-see-worst-perform https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1578680210261651457/photo/1
  • alednamalednam Posts: 172
    "Cameron survived until the referendum was lost". But it was widely believed that the referendum would (from his point of view) be won, and most of his MPs voted Remain. It's true that Leave on, but Cameron was never—until the result was announced in manifest need of emergency care.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,193
    edited October 8

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    Every PM needs a Willie/Mandy (delete as applicable).

    Frost clearly fantasises about that sort of role, but he is utterly deluded. It's hard to think of candidates - Osborne is the obvious Tory version of Mandy, but I doubt he wants to get involved in this bin fire.

    As well as that, I just don't think it's in Truss's character to hand over power to keep power.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Scott_xP said:

    YouGov Westminster voting intention *Scotland* (30 Sep - 4 Oct)

    SNP: 45% (-1 from 18-23 May)
    Lab: 31% (+9)
    Con: 12% (-7)
    Lib Dem: 7% (+1)
    Green: 3% (=)
    Reform UK: 1% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/08/scottish-voting-intention-tories-see-worst-perform https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1578680204754825217/photo/1

    Funny. I keep being told how SLab are finished by the nits on here.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    pigeon said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Is Johnson interested in staying in Parliament beyond the next election (assuming that any king across the water fantasies that he may harbour do not come to fruition over the next few months?) And if so, will a sympathetic local association with a vacancy allow him to jump ship to somewhere likely to hold out against a crushing defeat? Not convinced on either count.
    Safest eight Tory seats:

    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Boston and Skegness Matt Warman
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Lincolnshire South John Hayes

    So, Weald of Kent for The Oaf?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 8
    alednam said:

    "Cameron survived until the referendum was lost". But it was widely believed that the referendum would (from his point of view) be won, and most of his MPs voted Remain. It's true that Leave on, but Cameron was never—until the result was announced in manifest need of emergency care.

    Just maybe that was because he had Osborne protecting his back. No PM since has had an operator like that enforcing discipline, coordinating policy etc and they have all been the weaker for it. The closest was Boris and Cummings but ultimately Cummings was more interested in tearing things down than building a government up. An iconoclast.
  • Scott_xP said:

    UK government: 'We're going to issue more oil and gas licenses.'
    Munich Re: 'Yeah, we're not going to be insuring that.' https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4057411/global-briefing BG+

    So what?

    So a German company has decided to polish its "green" credentials at a time that Germany is f***ed due to its reliance upon Russian gas, notwithstanding the huge amounts of coal they burn.

    What does that have to do with the price of fish? Or the desirability of being self-sufficient on hydrocarbons? If a German insurance company won't touch it, plenty of others will.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,450

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    Every PM needs a Willie/Mandy (delete as applicable).

    Frost clearly fantasises about that sort of role, but he is utterly deluded. It's hard to think of candidates - Osborne is the obvious Tory version of Mandy, but I doubt he wants to get involved in this bin fire.

    As well as that, I just don't think it's in Truss's character to hand over power to keep power.
    Osborne is philosophically opposed to the project.
    Herein lies the problem.
    You need someone who is competent, in tune with the aims, and not an obvious loon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Any discussion of how long Truss can survive must be tempered with the idea that this may the peak of her popularity

    The Interest rate rises have not bitten. Yet.

    The public spending cuts have not been confirmed. Yet.

    The winter of disconnect (sic) is yet to come.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    In #Yalta and #Simferopol, people are beginning to massively buy fuel.

    There are queues.

    Ohh, what happened?

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578682303546466305
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    EXC: Cabinet immigration split latest. Officials in Mogg’s BEIS department suggested more visas for overseas florists, hairdressers and town planners. Suella Braverman said no. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/07/suella-braverman-says-no-foreign-florists-hairdressers/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    @maxseddon
    The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928

    So they’re admitting it’s so badly damaged, as to require new routes to be set up to bypass it?

    Technically, they’re right, 95% of the bridge is still standing!
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233
    Scott_xP said:

    UK government: 'We're going to issue more oil and gas licenses.'
    Munich Re: 'Yeah, we're not going to be insuring that.' https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4057411/global-briefing BG+

    So what. The govt are doing the right thing here. Others will insure it. If Munich Re want to pander to the green lobby they can. Your obsession with this govt sometimes borders on the deranged.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    dixiedean said:

    Herein lies the problem.
    You need someone who is competent, in tune with the aims, and not an obvious loon.

    You can have any 2 from 3...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    Every PM needs a Willie/Mandy (delete as applicable).

    Frost clearly fantasises about that sort of role, but he is utterly deluded. It's hard to think of candidates - Osborne is the obvious Tory version of Mandy, but I doubt he wants to get involved in this bin fire.

    As well as that, I just don't think it's in Truss's character to hand over power to keep power.
    Osborne is philosophically opposed to the project.
    Herein lies the problem.
    You need someone who is competent, in tune with the aims, and not an obvious loon.
    I rather suspect two of those is the most you can hope for.
  • Jonathan said:

    She will survive for as long as the Conservative party cannot agree on a replacement.

    Spot on.

    But I just can't see how replacing her helps the Tory chances. People will say now is time for a GE.

  • NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    In #Yalta and #Simferopol, people are beginning to massively buy fuel.

    There are queues.

    Ohh, what happened?

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578682303546466305

    Bit late isn't it? Be a long queue to catch a ferry at this rate.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    My dad used to get The Scotsman (for the news) and the Daily Record (for his beloved Rangers F.C.)
    That purchasing behaviour ended several decades ago, when he lost faith in the brands.
    I myself used to subscribe to The Economist, again decades ago.
    Lost loyal customers rarely regret their decision.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    Scott_xP said:

    UK government: 'We're going to issue more oil and gas licenses.'
    Munich Re: 'Yeah, we're not going to be insuring that.' https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4057411/global-briefing BG+

    So what?

    So a German company has decided to polish its "green" credentials at a time that Germany is f***ed due to its reliance upon Russian gas, notwithstanding the huge amounts of coal they burn.

    What does that have to do with the price of fish? Or the desirability of being self-sufficient on hydrocarbons? If a German insurance company won't touch it, plenty of others will.
    Exactly right.

    Our govt are doing the right thing here, for once.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    One to watch. The foreign aid budget is in the crosshairs. It was meant to hit 0.7% GDP in 2024 under Rishi’s plans. Now could be pushed back years, possibly to 2027. As much as £5bn a year saved… but Tory rebellion brewing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/07/foreign-aid-could-slashed-balance-books/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Scott_xP said:

    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1

    The Faroese ate the dolphins.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233
  • Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    Every PM needs a Willie/Mandy (delete as applicable).

    Frost clearly fantasises about that sort of role, but he is utterly deluded. It's hard to think of candidates - Osborne is the obvious Tory version of Mandy, but I doubt he wants to get involved in this bin fire.

    As well as that, I just don't think it's in Truss's character to hand over power to keep power.
    Osborne is philosophically opposed to the project.
    Herein lies the problem.
    You need someone who is competent, in tune with the aims, and not an obvious loon.
    I've got it: Michael Portillo.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    My dad used to get The Scotsman (for the news) and the Daily Record (for his beloved Rangers F.C.)
    That purchasing behaviour ended several decades ago, when he lost faith in the brands.
    I myself used to subscribe to The Economist, again decades ago.
    Lost loyal customers rarely regret their decision.
    Indeed, he's now subscribed to The Times after my wife and I recommended it. Don't think there's going to be any backsliding, also think the Tories will struggle to get his vote in his lifetime. He does seem completely put off by Liz and Kwasi and that Tory MPs are doing nothing to rein them in or remove them from power.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Better together crucified labour. Deservedly so.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    pigeon said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Is Johnson interested in staying in Parliament beyond the next election (assuming that any king across the water fantasies that he may harbour do not come to fruition over the next few months?) And if so, will a sympathetic local association with a vacancy allow him to jump ship to somewhere likely to hold out against a crushing defeat? Not convinced on either count.
    Safest eight Tory seats:

    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Boston and Skegness Matt Warman
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Lincolnshire South John Hayes

    So, Weald of Kent for The Oaf?
    A Man of Kent? Other spellings are available!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Scott_xP said:

    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1

    The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/ What a colossal failure https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1

    The dolphins probably died of starvation after some colonel embezzled all the funds intended for their food. Amongst myriad other instances of corruption.
    Dolphins, being intelligent beasts, are probably swimming happily along the north Turkish seaside, entertaining the tourists!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 8

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited October 8
    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
  • Who is Baxter?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Scott_xP said:

    One to watch. The foreign aid budget is in the crosshairs. It was meant to hit 0.7% GDP in 2024 under Rishi’s plans. Now could be pushed back years, possibly to 2027. As much as £5bn a year saved… but Tory rebellion brewing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/07/foreign-aid-could-slashed-balance-books/

    It's going to be quite something if the Truss Government ends up powerless to enact any of its slash and burn agenda because most of the backbenches won't wear measures like freezing working age benefits or cutting overseas aid. It's like a mirror image version of the tug of war between Corbyn (backed by the crackpot Labour membership) and the bulk of his Parliamentary party. Tory MPs would be much better off if they could jettison all of their activists and recruit a new set, but I don't think they get their wet centrists back unless or until they repudiate hard Brexit. Obviously they're in a terrible mess.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540


    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    In #Yalta and #Simferopol, people are beginning to massively buy fuel.

    There are queues.

    Ohh, what happened?

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578682303546466305

    Bit late isn't it? Be a long queue to catch a ferry at this rate.
    It's just under 800km or 500 miles from Yalta to Rostov-on-Don via Melitopol and Mariupol. I dunno how fuel-efficient Russian cars are, but the three cars my wife has owned while we've been together have all been able to manage that distance on a single tank.
  • Would anybody put it past Elon Musk to sell kit to one side in a war and the off switch to the other side?

    Channelling Basil Zaharoff maybe?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,223

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    It must be Gove Gove Gove ...

    Sorry.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,450

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
  • dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Who is Baxter?

    Scottish mathematician and finance whizzkid turned into psephological demi-god.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    On the internet thingy, there’s a place called Google. It is your friend.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    What would that entail?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "I can’t see her making it to Christmas,” a former cabinet minister who backed Truss said. “We can’t go on like this for two years."

    The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.

    By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1

    When Gordon Brown was in trouble he gave Peter Mandelson a peerage and handed him huge control over the day-to-day running of the government. Who is Truss's Mandy?
    It must be Gove Gove Gove ...

    Sorry.
    Dead Ringers would think all their Christmas’s had come at once.
  • dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    On the internet thingy, there’s a place called Google. It is your friend.
    No need to be a dick, not surprised to be honest as this is how you always are. Get to fuck
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited October 8
    kinabalu said:

    This is clearly niche but I prefer Truss to Johnson. She's terrible at the job but at least takes it seriously. Johnson was a charlatan. I just could not bear having that man as PM. The constant and overriding feeling with him was that he was taking the piss.

    +1

    I almost feel sorry for Liz.

    Almost.

    I note that although Truss is -52 in Scotland, the Oaf was -70.
  • Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 97

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    Pro-Scottish doesn't mean pro-independence though. Otherwise, most of Scotland would be anti-Scottish
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Nonsense. One can be pro-Scottish and pro-Union. There is a perfectly reasonable case to be made. But Unionist parties like Labour never make it. They are viciously, poisonously anti-Scottish.
  • kinabalu said:

    This is clearly niche but I prefer Truss to Johnson. She's terrible at the job but at least takes it seriously. Johnson was a charlatan. I just could not bear having that man as PM. The constant and overriding feeling with him was that he was taking the piss.

    I completely agree. I detest everything Truss has said and done but she has an ideology driving it all, something the country clearly hates and she is being told that very loudly. In that sense she's a league above Johnson who didn't believe in anything. How can a man who was more left wing in London than Sadiq preside over everything he did whilst PM. Because he has no principles or ideology at all.

    Labour is having an easy time destroying Liz because she has an ideology that is easy to expose and take advantage of. Johnson was a lot harder to beat because he shape shifted all the time - and I think any election he ran would be a lot closer than any Liz will fight.
  • Hello_CloudsHello_Clouds Posts: 97
    edited October 8

    Who is Baxter?

    Martin Baxter also did the Baxter Tables for colleges at Cambridge University.
    The Electoral Calculus home page is here.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    They gonnae dig up Robin Cook and Donald Dewar?
    Gordo has the perpetual look of someone dug up but the jury is out over his pro-Scottishness.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    No such pedigree. Someone called Robert Thompson who disappeared when the scales fell from his eyes (or at least everyone else's)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    There must be a question in peoples minds when they're viewing the standing of a party which isn't nationalist when there is a nationalist party. Are the non-nationalists anti-nationalists or or what?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    Put your own figures in, with a number of variables. I would take it with a shovel full of salt in these peculiar times though.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    pigeon said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Is Johnson interested in staying in Parliament beyond the next election (assuming that any king across the water fantasies that he may harbour do not come to fruition over the next few months?) And if so, will a sympathetic local association with a vacancy allow him to jump ship to somewhere likely to hold out against a crushing defeat? Not convinced on either count.
    Safest eight Tory seats:

    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Boston and Skegness Matt Warman
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Lincolnshire South John Hayes

    So, Weald of Kent for The Oaf?
    A Man of Kent? Other spellings are available!
    The alternative spelling is the appropriate one for The Oaf. He is both a massive weal and a massive kent.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    MaxPB said:

    Seminal moment in our household(ish) - my dad cancelled his subscription to the Telegraph, his words this morning - "it's just complete nonsense and they're asking me to pay £300 per year for the pleasure of reading it".

    The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.

    I think among many people there has been a mild-leftward shift in values. I think there are multiple causes: the staleness of the Tory offering, Covid, Brexit and the characters of Johnson and Truss, but broadly I think it consists of:

    1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.

    2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.

    3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.

    4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.

    I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).

    Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
    Most of the wealth generated by the modern economy goes to a very small elite.

    In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.
  • Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who is Baxter?

    Electoral Calculus bloke.
    What does that mean?
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    Put your own figures in, with a number of variables. I would take it with a shovel full of salt in these peculiar times though.
    Ah, thanks Foxy.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Ho ho.

    Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)

    Predicted votes:
    Lab 54%
    Con 29%
    LD 6%
    Grn 5%

    Chance of winning:
    Labour 94%
    Conservatives 6%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    It's ironic that if the Tories are decimated at the next election history will likely rate Johnson the worst leader of all time.. It's almost a Shakespearean tragedy but without a tragic hero. It's funny to think it's only a few months ago that our most loquacious Tory poster -sadly no longer posting- who thought Johnson the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill.
    Name-dropper supreme @Charles ?
    No such pedigree. Someone called Robert Thompson who disappeared when the scales fell from his eyes (or at least everyone else's)
    Robert? You sure?
This discussion has been closed.