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Just how long can she survive? – politicalbetting.com
Just how long can she survive? – politicalbetting.com
Ouch for Liz Truss. Although the good news for her she has slashed the Labour lead from 33% last week to a mangeable 30% Labour lead this week with @YouGov. https://t.co/mnigh02wOq pic.twitter.com/9wKS5LOE7T
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Edit: Yes!
How unfortunate that a fuel train just happened to be crossing the bridge at the time of the accident.
Kudos to the Ukrainians who have pulled this off, it is a brilliant strike at the heart of Russian logistics which were already dreadful to begin with.
Congratulations Putin, your invasion has been less cunning than any of Baldrick's plans ever could have been.
The HuffPost UK Saturday read on whether the PM can survive.
By me, @SophiaSleigh and @journoamrogers
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-already-asking-if-truss-can-survive_uk_633da78ae4b04cf8f3693cf1
Alas for them, that ship has sailed. They look really silly for electing her anyway.
If you fall into a large dung heap through a mis-step, you don't look less silly for walking around covered in shit until your next scheduled bath 24 hours later. If anything, rather the reverse.
That's where they are.
They won't defenestrate her, but they will still look rather silly.
I don't think there's any chance she's gone until at least May, when the recession and the drubbing in the locals have them staring apocalypse in the face. Even then I'm not convinced - there's no clear replacement, as jonathan notes, and the members cannot be trusted to select, even if the MPs are also suspect.
But enough of Putin.
Truss's main defence is that her party is hopelessly divided and may be incapable either of agreeing to dump here or on who should come next. If a new leader isn't installed unopposed then they have another three or four months of lame duck Liz presiding over open warfare, with the very real risk that hard right wing MPs and the loopy codgers in the selectorate double down and pick Braverman at the end of it.
Baxter’s new prediction for Uxbridge and South Ruislip:
PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON
MP at 2019: Boris Johnson (CON)
Predicted votes:
Lab 54%
Con 29%
LD 6%
Grn 5%
Chance of winning:
Labour 94%
Conservatives 6%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Is the Conservative Party, nay the country, going to be held hostage for two years by 81,000 Tory members?
The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578662839346044928
It takes a special kind of stupid to be worse than The Oaf.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578605975979708416?s=46&t=9-iRVXvIc0YAmbxm-XX9LQ
Still, one month until revised boundaries are uploaded.
Incidentally, I wonder how the repairs on the Moskva are going? I recall at the time that the Kremlin line was it simply needed to be towed into Sevastopol for a couple of chaps with spanners to tighten the odd bolt, and it'd be back in action in no time. I must have missed what happened after that - does anyone happen to know?
Munich Re: 'Yeah, we're not going to be insuring that.' https://www.businessgreen.com/news-analysis/4057411/global-briefing BG+
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578648600665411584
SNP: 45% (-1 from 18-23 May)
Lab: 31% (+9)
Con: 12% (-7)
Lib Dem: 7% (+1)
Green: 3% (=)
Reform UK: 1% (=)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/08/scottish-voting-intention-tories-see-worst-perform https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1578680204754825217/photo/1
Constituency / Regional vote
SNP: 49% / 38%
Lab: 26% / 24%
Con: 13% / 14%
Lib Dem: 8% / 8%
Green: 2% / 12%
Best Labour constituency score since 2015
Worst Tory scores since 2014
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/08/scottish-voting-intention-tories-see-worst-perform https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1578680210261651457/photo/1
Frost clearly fantasises about that sort of role, but he is utterly deluded. It's hard to think of candidates - Osborne is the obvious Tory version of Mandy, but I doubt he wants to get involved in this bin fire.
As well as that, I just don't think it's in Truss's character to hand over power to keep power.
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Boston and Skegness Matt Warman
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Maldon John Whittingdale
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Lincolnshire South John Hayes
So, Weald of Kent for The Oaf?
The Telegraph has been a fixture at my parents house for ca. 30 years. The Tory party is losing its core voters right now.
So a German company has decided to polish its "green" credentials at a time that Germany is f***ed due to its reliance upon Russian gas, notwithstanding the huge amounts of coal they burn.
What does that have to do with the price of fish? Or the desirability of being self-sufficient on hydrocarbons? If a German insurance company won't touch it, plenty of others will.
Herein lies the problem.
You need someone who is competent, in tune with the aims, and not an obvious loon.
The Interest rate rises have not bitten. Yet.
The public spending cuts have not been confirmed. Yet.
The winter of disconnect (sic) is yet to come.
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
In #Yalta and #Simferopol, people are beginning to massively buy fuel.
There are queues.
Ohh, what happened?
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578682303546466305
Technically, they’re right, 95% of the bridge is still standing!
But I just can't see how replacing her helps the Tory chances. People will say now is time for a GE.
That purchasing behaviour ended several decades ago, when he lost faith in the brands.
I myself used to subscribe to The Economist, again decades ago.
Lost loyal customers rarely regret their decision.
Our govt are doing the right thing here, for once.
We went for a lovely dinner at Circolo Popolare and then home for some wine and, err, well needed alone time.
Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016
https://twitter.com/beachenjoyer/status/1578658060104396801?s=61&t=7P5o6KepsgIdnAr9bxCcow
1. A general attitude that people with the broadest shoulders can afford to pay more into the system, and should do so.
2. A strengthening of sympathy for public sector workers re pay and conditions.
3. Objectively being critical of some of the challenges the country faces re Brexit: eg worker shortages.
4. A feeling that public services deserve more investment in general.
I am feeling this shift too, in my own views and opinions on things. Interesting a genuinely one nation Tory offering would probably be able to steer this course quite well (and to be fair to Boris and Rishi there was some hint of 4 re the NI rise but of course they didn’t get 1. - ie the extra money was coming from everyday workers).
Truss’ fiscal ineptitude, cosplay Thatcher, tax cuts for the rich, spending cuts approach is moving the Tory Party in the opposite direction from the way the country is moving. This is another reason why she is doing so badly in the polls, and why right wing media outlets are struggling - because they don’t get it, they can’t see the change in direction.
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
Channelling Basil Zaharoff maybe?
Sorry.
I almost feel sorry for Liz.
Almost.
I note that although Truss is -52 in Scotland, the Oaf was -70.
@Sandpit My review of my day motor racing:
I was supposed to be driving a Formula Renault but I couldn't fit in the car. Tried two of them. I have short legs and a long body (pullovers are a challenge). If my body was in proportion to my legs I would be one of snow white dwarves. So I exceeded the height limit of the car of 6' even though I'm not 6', my legs didn't reach the pedals, I was too wide to sit in the car properly and the steering wheel couldn't be put on because of my thighs. Other than that I was a perfect fit.
So drove a Sports 2000 instead. Loved it. Got overtaken a lot as I took it carefully, but by lap 5 I had my first lap where I wasn't overtaken and I overtook others. I want more.
Got taken around by a pro at the end in a 'scare the willies out of you lap' and found that less exciting than a difficult black run or flying a hull on a catamaran.
Phoning up on Monday for some more.
Labour is having an easy time destroying Liz because she has an ideology that is easy to expose and take advantage of. Johnson was a lot harder to beat because he shape shifted all the time - and I think any election he ran would be a lot closer than any Liz will fight.
The Electoral Calculus home page is here.
Gordo has the perpetual look of someone dug up but the jury is out over his pro-Scottishness.
Put your own figures in, with a number of variables. I would take it with a shovel full of salt in these peculiar times though.
In 2018, 82% of new wealth globally went to the top 1%. It is all very well saying grow the pie and the rest will work itself out, but the facts on the ground demonstrate otherwise.