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A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com

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  • Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Confirms that Truss and Kwarteng can’t turn things around, in my view
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1575843389756829701

    Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
    Brexit, essentially.

    The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.

    Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
    It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
    I feel your last sentence should read "... they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the Earth being flat"
    I mean, the decision to leave the EU is a fact, so...
    The unfortunate thing in all of this is Truss has agreed to attend Macron's inaugural outer EU trading zone talks with Iceland, Norway and others and agreed to host the following round of talks in London

    This is something that should be supported across the political divide, though extreme remainers and leavers will no doubt call foul
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Confirms that Truss and Kwarteng can’t turn things around, in my view
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1575843389756829701

    Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
    Brexit, essentially.

    The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.

    Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
    It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
    Except they mainly backed the May deal. Unlike the "radicals" on the other side. I have to hand it to you though. There are changes of mind, really quite striking changes of mind, almost complete 180s ... and then there's whatever the hell has happened to you on Brexit.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    AlistairM said:

    Russian sources claim that Russian 503rd regiment from Kreminna has been dispatched to Torske, presumably to help withdrawing the troops but I have my doubts. A bit late for that. Likely only a (tiny) morale boost to hold the line. #Lyman #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1575851452509040641

    Some Russian sources saying the Lyman pocket is now sealed. Perhaps 2000 troops now cut off. Large surrender underway soon, Seems like other areas are also in trouble and the deployment of the new conscripts is close to disastrous.

    The facts on the ground show Putin´s speech to be pure delusion. Tens of thousands are still leaving through Georgia alone.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    PeterM said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
    by that time it wouldnt matter the uk would be an irradiated wasteland and i would be hunting rats for food
    But surely in Russian bunny-land the steaks just fall off the cattle, and you'd clearly wallow in bathtubs of milk and honey?
  • Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Utter lunacy. That 80 seat majority will evaporate as Tory MPs in marginal seats (ie all of them) realise what Truss is doing to their electoral prospects. They won't be able to get any of it through, and meanwhile they are poisoning the well for their party for a generation.
    Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    To be fair, they were very, very few in number.....
  • Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Confirms that Truss and Kwarteng can’t turn things around, in my view
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1575843389756829701

    Ha ha like Mark Carney wants to be Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. Maybe we can tempt Barack Obama over to serve as UK Ambassador to Bhutan and install Tom Cruise as number three at DCMS while we're at it. Why is everyone even remotely connected to this government a total moron?
    Brexit, essentially.

    The ruling class since 2016 (including multiple media outriders) simply chose to believe the world was flat.

    Round earthers were ostracised and expelled.
    It's true that the factionalism in the Tory party since 2016 has led to an erosion of talent, but that is a lazy analysis of why it happened. It's not so much that "round earthers" were ostracised and expelled, but that they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the decision to leave the EU.
    I feel your last sentence should read "... they radicalised themselves into opposition because they couldn't reconcile themselves to the Earth being flat"
    I mean, the decision to leave the EU is a fact, so...
    A decision which was about as sensible as a flat earth :D
  • PeterM said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
    by that time it wouldnt matter the uk would be an irradiated wasteland and i would be hunting rats for food
    If Russia tried to bomb the UK most of their missiles would probably be duds and those that aren't could be intercepted.

    Quite frankly, Russia isn't the USSR and doesn't have the capabilities to annihilate the world, any more than it has the capability to take Kyiv.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Agreeable Doomsday lunch at the Grouch, tho

    Bruschetta with stracchino cheese, squash, chestnuts, crispy sage

    Vitello tonnato, tuna, capers & anchovies sauce, quail eggs!

    And now a superb Wehlener Riesling dessert wine

    if I die today I die well fed

    Ideally we hang on til Wednesday for Armageddon because I've got La Dame de Pic on Tuesday.
    Could we make it Thursday, please? Meeting a friend for lunch on Wednesday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    Why not the booster? Flu jab too at the same time.
    Because if you have just had covid they do not give you the booster. I was asked last time I had my booster - you had to have been clear of covid for 6 months
    Ah, thanks - didn't realise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
  • Carnyx said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    Why not the booster? Flu jab too at the same time.
    Because if you have just had covid they do not give you the booster. I was asked last time I had my booster - you had to have been clear of covid for 6 months
    If it helps this seems to be the official advice

    How long after having COVID-19 can you get a booster?

    You will still need the booster but you should wait at least 4 weeks from your COVID-19 infection

    2 Feb 2022
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Utter lunacy. That 80 seat majority will evaporate as Tory MPs in marginal seats (ie all of them) realise what Truss is doing to their electoral prospects. They won't be able to get any of it through, and meanwhile they are poisoning the well for their party for a generation.
    Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
    I wonder how many Red Wall Tory MPs would cross the aisle if they were offered to be the Labour Candidate at the next election? I also wonder how many of those MPs would be acceptable to the Labour Party
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Agreeable Doomsday lunch at the Grouch, tho

    Bruschetta with stracchino cheese, squash, chestnuts, crispy sage

    Vitello tonnato, tuna, capers & anchovies sauce, quail eggs!

    And now a superb Wehlener Riesling dessert wine

    if I die today I die well fed

    Ideally we hang on til Wednesday for Armageddon because I've got La Dame de Pic on Tuesday.
    Could we make it Thursday, please? Meeting a friend for lunch on Wednesday.
    Oh jeez are we putting our bids in. Mon/Tues I'm in Paris; Thurs I have a drinks, then Friday off for the weekend.

    So I have a window I suppose on Weds but if people are busy that night then I'm happy to bump it to next week.
  • Zelensky addressing the russian mobilised forces: "Tattoo your name to your bodies so we know how to contact your relatives after you are killed"

    https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1575842000057683969
  • Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    Yebbut... that includes a +5% for GOP from, er, Trafalgar.

    538 has the overall +1.2% for the Dems
    It does, but there are worse-rated pollsters than Trafalgar included in both averages.

    Even a 1.2% Democratic lead would produce a Republican majority of 10-15.
    538 have this:
    "Republicans are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 0.4 points"

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/?cid=rrpromo

    which might not make sense, but it's been fairly consistent in this year's House forecast.
    I think 538 are wrong.

    Sean Trende has crunched the numbers, No change on 2020 would probably put the Republicans on 224 seats.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/09/29/setting_expectations_for_the_house_in_2022_midterms.html
    Haven't read it properly but isn't that simply assuming universal swing since 2020? I'm assuming 538's model takes into account things like opinion polls
    There is so little polling at individual Congressional seat level that it makes no difference.

    538's model takes into account generic polling and Presidential approval ratings.

    There IS significant amount of polling in contested races. However, most of it is by campaigns and NOT public; or if publicized, cherry-picked.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
  • mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Agreeable Doomsday lunch at the Grouch, tho

    Bruschetta with stracchino cheese, squash, chestnuts, crispy sage

    Vitello tonnato, tuna, capers & anchovies sauce, quail eggs!

    And now a superb Wehlener Riesling dessert wine

    if I die today I die well fed

    Ideally we hang on til Wednesday for Armageddon because I've got La Dame de Pic on Tuesday.
    "I would liked to have seen Montana the Clitheroe-Hellifield Line."
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    even if they arent just 1 nuclear bomb on london and thats city of london and westminster completely wiped out with massive blast damage likely as far away as hampstead
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2022
    I have some minor sympathy for Truss, in that some of the supply side reforms are so desperately needed.

    I doubt if any of it will happen, though, as she’s so badly fucked the politics.

    I don’t see Tory vote share recovering any time soon. Her best hope is that things turn nastier in Ukraine.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Utter lunacy. That 80 seat majority will evaporate as Tory MPs in marginal seats (ie all of them) realise what Truss is doing to their electoral prospects. They won't be able to get any of it through, and meanwhile they are poisoning the well for their party for a generation.
    Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
    I wonder how many Red Wall Tory MPs would cross the aisle if they were offered to be the Labour Candidate at the next election? I also wonder how many of those MPs would be acceptable to the Labour Party
    Do we have views on defections? There were none to Labour during their conference but perhaps one on the eve of the Tory conference works better. Got to be a decent chance, no? %
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995

    PeterM said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
    by that time it wouldnt matter the uk would be an irradiated wasteland and i would be hunting rats for food
    If Russia tried to bomb the UK most of their missiles would probably be duds and those that aren't could be intercepted.

    Quite frankly, Russia isn't the USSR and doesn't have the capabilities to annihilate the world, any more than it has the capability to take Kyiv.
    I expect a disproportionate number of ICBMs would be heading our way though, it's a kind of grudge match with the UK it seems. Italy might get off more lightly.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
  • As a slight mea culpa I might have leaned towards the “she may be refreshing and surprise on the upside” crowd. I wish I hadn’t been, as I had started off the leadership contest convinced she would be utterly crap. And lo, she is utterly crap. Unfortunately I did have a wobble in the middle.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    Who are these fictional PB Tories you are talking about?

    I can't remember anyone who said Truss would be popular. All I can remember is you banging on repeatedly about a bounce and Tory poll lead, I can't remember even a single "PB Tory" suggesting it.

    I am one of the few PB Tories who supported Truss and I said I didn't expect any midterm Tory poll leads. I also said that I thought she might well be unpopular and lose the next election, but that I was OK with that.

    You keep tilting at windmills. These PB Tories you rail against are figments of your own imagination.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Utter lunacy. That 80 seat majority will evaporate as Tory MPs in marginal seats (ie all of them) realise what Truss is doing to their electoral prospects. They won't be able to get any of it through, and meanwhile they are poisoning the well for their party for a generation.
    Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
    I wonder how many Red Wall Tory MPs would cross the aisle if they were offered to be the Labour Candidate at the next election? I also wonder how many of those MPs would be acceptable to the Labour Party
    Is it even worth taking them?
    With one notable exception, they are cretinous blow-hards.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    even if they arent just 1 nuclear bomb on london and thats city of london and westminster completely wiped out with massive blast damage likely as far away as hampstead
    Believe you me if it came to that Moscow and St Petersburg would be annihilated along with many other Russian cities

  • I see PyotrM is now here to bestow us with his wisdom.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    What did "they" do?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    I see PyotrM is now here to bestow us with his wisdom.

    You mean like at what point do we welcome MAD? Asking those questions? Yeah - crazy guy.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I wish OGH had won his 250-1 bet. 😔
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    Who are these fictional PB Tories you are talking about?

    I can't remember anyone who said Truss would be popular. All I can remember is you banging on repeatedly about a bounce and Tory poll lead, I can't remember even a single "PB Tory" suggesting it.

    I am one of the few PB Tories who supported Truss and I said I didn't expect any midterm Tory poll leads. I also said that I thought she might well be unpopular and lose the next election, but that I was OK with that.

    You keep tilting at windmills. These PB Tories you rail against are figments of your own imagination.
    So far, so quite monumentally crap though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2022

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    Who are these fictional PB Tories you are talking about?

    I can't remember anyone who said Truss would be popular. All I can remember is you banging on repeatedly about a bounce and Tory poll lead, I can't remember even a single "PB Tory" suggesting it.

    I am one of the few PB Tories who supported Truss and I said I didn't expect any midterm Tory poll leads. I also said that I thought she might well be unpopular and lose the next election, but that I was OK with that.

    You keep tilting at windmills. These PB Tories you rail against are figments of your own imagination.
    Barty, you couldn’t tilt at more windmills if your name was Tilty McBlowhard of Windmill-on-the-Water.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    PeterM said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    even if they arent just 1 nuclear bomb on london and thats city of london and westminster completely wiped out with massive blast damage likely as far away as hampstead
    I would expect Trident to be altogether more accurate, and to have been far better maintained.

    Putin is like an angry gerbil right now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    Oh, I suspect they can still do a fair bit of damage
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
    Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?

    Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
    Finland and Sweden received security guarantees before they applied to join NATO. If NATO doesn't immediately rebuff Ukraine's application then I'd expect some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine before the end of the day.

    Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
    Surely Nato isn't going to give security guarantees to a country already at war with Russia
  • PeterM said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    even if they arent just 1 nuclear bomb on london and thats city of london and westminster completely wiped out with massive blast damage likely as far away as hampstead
    Just 1 nuclear bomb on London and it'll probably fizzle out embarrassingly due to your nation's shockingly poor maintenance of its weaponry.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    TOPPING said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
    Jags? Jabs surely
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    kamski said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
    Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?

    Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
    Finland and Sweden received security guarantees before they applied to join NATO. If NATO doesn't immediately rebuff Ukraine's application then I'd expect some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine before the end of the day.

    Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
    Surely Nato isn't going to give security guarantees to a country already at war with Russia
    At the same time as Russia giving nuclear guarantees to bits of "New Russia" *occupied* by Ukraine

    Either of these commitments potentially leads to all out war. Together?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    It’s not clear. Lost in the fog of war and all that.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    Who are these fictional PB Tories you are talking about?

    I can't remember anyone who said Truss would be popular. All I can remember is you banging on repeatedly about a bounce and Tory poll lead, I can't remember even a single "PB Tory" suggesting it.

    I am one of the few PB Tories who supported Truss and I said I didn't expect any midterm Tory poll leads. I also said that I thought she might well be unpopular and lose the next election, but that I was OK with that.

    You keep tilting at windmills. These PB Tories you rail against are figments of your own imagination.
    Barty, you couldn’t tilt at more windmills if your name was Tilty McBlowhard of Windmill-on-the-Water.
    Nice try, but the difference is I don't insist my opinions are widespread or winning or represent everyone. I just say what I think, and I don't care if I'm in a minority. I don't see the point in following the herd and suspending your own critical thinking, we're all individuals.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    I understand he questioned the ethics/reliability of a specific pollster - but I may be wrong. Nevertheless that sort of thing is frowned upon generally speaking. With the possible exception of Trafalgar.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    ydoethur said:

    I'm under the weather too. Fatigue and mild cold symptoms.

    Plenty of weather to be under at the moment. I'm admiring high winds and driving rain.

    Lots of this would be just what we need. 42.63% of electricity from wind power right now.
    And topping up reservoirs too I hope.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    TOPPING said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
    She is now also clear, so feel less guilty!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    Oh, I suspect they can still do a fair bit of damage
    I've never really liked you beloved Camden that much, but that'll be the least of it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
    Jags? Jabs surely
    Omnium is kindly speaking demotic Scots for Fairlie's benefit. Very polite of him/her/it/them.
  • DougSeal said:

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    I understand he questioned the ethics/reliability of a specific pollster - but I may be wrong. Nevertheless that sort of thing is frowned upon generally speaking. With the possible exception of Trafalgar.
    Didn't like the poll therefore attacked the company?
  • kamski said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
    Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?

    Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
    Finland and Sweden received security guarantees before they applied to join NATO. If NATO doesn't immediately rebuff Ukraine's application then I'd expect some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine before the end of the day.

    Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
    Surely Nato isn't going to give security guarantees to a country already at war with Russia
    Pointless considering an application for membership of NATO from a country at war with Russia if we aren't.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
    Jags? Jabs surely
    A jag is a Scottish jab. If Partick Thistle played in the Premiership, their nickname would be The Jabs.
  • Does house insurance usually protect you in instances of nuclear war?

    Asking for a friend.
  • https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4037319#Comment_4037319

    Here we are, just one example of the PB Tory love in for Truss they wish we'd forget.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    I understand he questioned the ethics/reliability of a specific pollster - but I may be wrong. Nevertheless that sort of thing is frowned upon generally speaking. With the possible exception of Trafalgar.
    Didn't like the poll therefore attacked the company?
    I think so.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    Why not the booster? Flu jab too at the same time.
    Because if you have just had covid they do not give you the booster. I was asked last time I had my booster - you had to have been clear of covid for 6 months
    Ah, thanks - didn't realise.
    Its not the case though, its four weeks.

    If anyone has been told to be clear for 6 months that's a mistake, if that were the case very few people would be getting boosted.

    Its four weeks, because they want the virus to be clear of your system by the time you get boosted, so the booster doesn't interact with an active virus.
  • While not remotely a fan of this omnishambles of a government (sic), some of us are old enough to remember how Mrs T was only there "temporarily" and soon one of the "grown ups" would be along to take over....

    Apart from the economics, who on gods green earth thought local radio would be an easy option?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    Calling into question the integrity of a recognised polling company because they had the temerity to suggest Labour were 30-odd pts ahead, can't remember which one tbh.
  • Conservative Home is in meltdown. I've just come across this comment under today's critical leader:

    Over on The Politicalbetting site they are running the headline 'A damning attack on Liz Truss from Conservativehome.'
    We are at the point where the editors of this site are supplying the enemies of the government and the wider conservative party with ammunition to attack both.
    In doing this, the editors are working for a Labour victory. It is high time they all considered their positions.


    PB: enemy of the government. You've got to laugh, haven't you?

    You love to see it.
  • England
    Lab 53%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%

    Scotland
    SNP 51%
    SLab 29%
    SCon 11%
    SLD 7%

    Wales
    WLab 53%
    WLD 18%
    WCon 16%
    PC 12%

    (Survation; 29 September; 1,092)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    PeterM said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Given the proven state of their armed forces, I doubt that Russia is capable of raining much destruction on the UK.
    even if they arent just 1 nuclear bomb on london and thats city of london and westminster completely wiped out with massive blast damage likely as far away as hampstead
    Just 1 nuclear bomb on London and it'll probably fizzle out embarrassingly due to your nation's shockingly poor maintenance of its weaponry.
    Still work to be done Bart.

    Off you trot.

    https://fightforua.org/
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Conservative Home is in meltdown. I've just come across this comment under today's critical leader:

    Over on The Politicalbetting site they are running the headline 'A damning attack on Liz Truss from Conservativehome.'
    We are at the point where the editors of this site are supplying the enemies of the government and the wider conservative party with ammunition to attack both.
    In doing this, the editors are working for a Labour victory. It is high time they all considered their positions.


    PB: enemy of the government. You've got to laugh, haven't you?

    How insecure are they, if they think that the Political Betting leader articles are "enemies of the government".
  • https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4037319#Comment_4037319

    Here we are, just one example of the PB Tory love in for Truss they wish we'd forget.

    Misty's not a Tory.

    And he's banned so not here to speak for himself either.
  • PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    why, what's he done?
  • eristdoof said:

    Conservative Home is in meltdown. I've just come across this comment under today's critical leader:

    Over on The Politicalbetting site they are running the headline 'A damning attack on Liz Truss from Conservativehome.'
    We are at the point where the editors of this site are supplying the enemies of the government and the wider conservative party with ammunition to attack both.
    In doing this, the editors are working for a Labour victory. It is high time they all considered their positions.


    PB: enemy of the government. You've got to laugh, haven't you?

    How insecure are they, if they think that the Political Betting leader articles are "enemies of the government".
    This is Corbynism all over again.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Yes, but who is the "source" saying this? Is it a cabinet minister? One of the pretty young spads? A civil servant? It does sound a bit like one of our PB Conservatives....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526

    PB Tories who spent a few days telling us how good Truss was, hope we never look at their posting history ever again

    I mean I stopped taking anything posted by BartyB, WilliamG, LuckyGuy, AndyJS, Misty etc seriously some time ago.

    They are clowns - clever clowns, undoubtedly - but clowns nonetheless.
    MISTY is now banned
    Do we know why?
    Attempted to discredit an established pollster.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041

    Nine council by-elections last night

    Lab gain from Con
    Con hold x2
    Lab hold
    LDm hold x3
    PC hold
    Ind hold

    Good week/Bad Week Index

    LDm +172
    Lab +72
    PC +51
    Con +13
    Grn -2
    SNP -18

    Adjusted Seat Value

    LDm +2.2
    Lab +1.2
    PC +0.9
    Con +0.2
    Grn -0.0
    SNP -0.3

    Nine council by-elections last night

    Lab gain from Con
    Con hold x2
    Lab hold
    LDm hold x3
    PC hold
    Ind hold

    Good week/Bad Week Index

    LDm +172
    Lab +72
    PC +51
    Con +13
    Grn -2
    SNP -18

    Adjusted Seat Value

    LDm +2.2
    Lab +1.2
    PC +0.9
    Con +0.2
    Grn -0.0
    SNP -0.3

    Nine council by-elections last night

    Lab gain from Con
    Con hold x2
    Lab hold
    LDm hold x3
    PC hold
    Ind hold

    Good week/Bad Week Index

    LDm +172
    Lab +72
    PC +51
    Con +13
    Grn -2
    SNP -18

    Adjusted Seat Value

    LDm +2.2
    Lab +1.2
    PC +0.9
    Con +0.2
    Grn -0.0
    SNP -0.3

    I have compared last night's results with the results in these wards the last time they were fought. This produces the following changes in percentage overall shares: LD +5.5, Con +4.0, PC +0.3, SNP -0.2, Ind -0.9, Green -1.0, Lab -7.5. Not what the opinion polls are showing. The Rossendale results will probably have affected the overall picture.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Does house insurance usually protect you in instances of nuclear war?

    Asking for a friend.

    Three problems.
    A living policyholder.
    An insurance company that hasn’t been annihilated.
    Insurance companies’ small print.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    Yebbut... that includes a +5% for GOP from, er, Trafalgar.

    538 has the overall +1.2% for the Dems
    It does, but there are worse-rated pollsters than Trafalgar included in both averages.

    Even a 1.2% Democratic lead would produce a Republican majority of 10-15.
    538 have this:
    "Republicans are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 0.4 points"

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/?cid=rrpromo

    which might not make sense, but it's been fairly consistent in this year's House forecast.
    I think 538 are wrong.

    Sean Trende has crunched the numbers, No change on 2020 would probably put the Republicans on 224 seats.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/09/29/setting_expectations_for_the_house_in_2022_midterms.html
    Haven't read it properly but isn't that simply assuming universal swing since 2020? I'm assuming 538's model takes into account things like opinion polls
    There is so little polling at individual Congressional seat level that it makes no difference.

    538's model takes into account generic polling and Presidential approval ratings.

    It would be nice if 538 explained why the Republicans seem to have lost their vote efficiently advantage since the last House elections in their model. There might be a good reason for it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Does house insurance usually protect you in instances of nuclear war?

    Asking for a friend.

    I believe it's a standard exclusion - including fallout from civil stations going poot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Presumably Hungary under Orban will block Ukraine membership of NATO? Not sure what Turkey will say on it either (although Erdogan has told Russia to get out of Ukraine, so maybe he is not going to block it?)

    Don't think so. Too much pressure & "mitigation" from Joe Biden and USA methinks for these fuckers to block.
    Turkey got some concessions, Erdogan said they were good with that. Mostly words about Kurdish groups in Sweden. As in "we will extradite terrorists". Which leaves out the bit about "... after our courts have accepted they are terrorists, will receive a fair trial, will have their human rights preserved.". Never basically.

    Hungary is being a bit more circumspect.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2022
    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Yes, but who is the "source" saying this? Is it a cabinet minister? One of the pretty young spads? A civil servant? It does sound a bit like one of our PB Conservatives....
    You can absolutely see the logic.
    There are many worthwhile reforms which the government has simply dodged because they are unpopular.

    But Truss has got it all wrong. Unpopularity is not the actual objective in itself.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    If Russia tried to bomb the UK most of their missiles would probably be duds and those that aren't could be intercepted.

    Quite frankly, Russia isn't the USSR and doesn't have the capabilities to annihilate the world, any more than it has the capability to take Kyiv.

    How's that going to happen? The UK has nothing that can intercept an ICBM.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    Why not the booster? Flu jab too at the same time.
    Because if you have just had covid they do not give you the booster. I was asked last time I had my booster - you had to have been clear of covid for 6 months
    Ah, thanks - didn't realise.
    Its not the case though, its four weeks.

    If anyone has been told to be clear for 6 months that's a mistake, if that were the case very few people would be getting boosted.

    Its four weeks, because they want the virus to be clear of your system by the time you get boosted, so the booster doesn't interact with an active virus.
    It’s definitely four weeks, we have been able to rearrange ours for the end of October.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    England
    Lab 53%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%

    Scotland
    SNP 51%
    SLab 29%
    SCon 11%
    SLD 7%

    Wales
    WLab 53%
    WLD 18%
    WCon 16%
    PC 12%

    (Survation; 29 September; 1,092)

    Sub-samples twice in one afternoon!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    While not remotely a fan of this omnishambles of a government (sic), some of us are old enough to remember how Mrs T was only there "temporarily" and soon one of the "grown ups" would be along to take over....

    Apart from the economics, who on gods green earth thought local radio would be an easy option?

    Not sure it was quite like that in 1979 tbh. Thatcher's popularity descended over a year or more. And at most she was only (!) ever 16% behind Labour.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election#1979
  • ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Yes, but who is the "source" saying this? Is it a cabinet minister? One of the pretty young spads? A civil servant? It does sound a bit like one of our PB Conservatives....
    You can absolutely see the logic.
    There are many worthwhile reforms which the government has simply dodged because they are unpopular.

    But Truss has got it all wrong. Unpopularity is not the actual objective in itself.
    It's all part of her unappreciated political genius. The only way to overcome vested interests and get Tory MPs to vote for supply-side reforms is to put the fear of god into them about the economy make them think they have nothing to lose.
  • Does house insurance usually protect you in instances of nuclear war?

    Asking for a friend.

    Three problems.
    A living policyholder.
    An insurance company that hasn’t been annihilated.
    Insurance companies’ small print.
    What kind of event or action is sufficient, do you think, to trigger a sensible evacuation of one’s family to the countryside or even New Zealand?

    Asking for another friend.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    As luck would have it I am just looking at my insurance policy.

    There is no cover for:

    10) War, terrorism, radioactive contamination and pressure waves
    Any claim resulting directly or indirectly from or in connection with:
    a) war, terrorism, invasion, act of foreign enemy, hostilities or warlike operations
    (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection,
    uprising, military or usurped power;
    b) ionising radiation or contamination by radioactivity from any nuclear fuel or any
    nuclear waste from the combustion of nuclear fuel;
    c) the radioactive, toxic, explosive or other hazardous properties of any explosive
    nuclear assembly or nuclear component of it;
    d) pressure waves caused by aircraft or other aerial devices travelling at sonic or
    supersonic speed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Eabhal said:

    England
    Lab 53%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%

    Scotland
    SNP 51%
    SLab 29%
    SCon 11%
    SLD 7%

    Wales
    WLab 53%
    WLD 18%
    WCon 16%
    PC 12%

    (Survation; 29 September; 1,092)

    Sub-samples twice in one afternoon!
    Yes, but if there are not merely one, but several, large brown objects on the ground unexpectedly, and they fee squidgy when poked with a stick (ie not papier mache), one wants to know what was producing them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    kamski said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
    Unless I’ve missed something there’s been no significant development other than Ukraines application for a fast track membership of NATO. Presumably that application now needs to be considered, so there are no security guarantees as yet and therefore no need for la Truss to speak to the nation?

    Although if we’re expecting her to give any kind of speech of that nature you can bet your bottom dollar it will be the least reassuring thing ever. “Some of you may die, but that’s a price I’m willing to pay.”
    Finland and Sweden received security guarantees before they applied to join NATO. If NATO doesn't immediately rebuff Ukraine's application then I'd expect some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine before the end of the day.

    Logically then Russia is given a deadline by which to stop firing and to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
    Surely Nato isn't going to give security guarantees to a country already at war with Russia
    The time, if any, for such a guarantee was early this year. It is a fascinating counter factual to contemplate.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,337
    glw said:

    If Russia tried to bomb the UK most of their missiles would probably be duds and those that aren't could be intercepted.

    Quite frankly, Russia isn't the USSR and doesn't have the capabilities to annihilate the world, any more than it has the capability to take Kyiv.

    How's that going to happen? The UK has nothing that can intercept an ICBM.
    @BartholomewRoberts will fly up into the sky in his patented Truss-o-copter and personally punch the Russian missiles on the nose, thereby sorting out everything
  • TOPPING said:

    As luck would have it I am just looking at my insurance policy.

    There is no cover for:

    10) War, terrorism, radioactive contamination and pressure waves
    Any claim resulting directly or indirectly from or in connection with:
    a) war, terrorism, invasion, act of foreign enemy, hostilities or warlike operations
    (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection,
    uprising, military or usurped power;
    b) ionising radiation or contamination by radioactivity from any nuclear fuel or any
    nuclear waste from the combustion of nuclear fuel;
    c) the radioactive, toxic, explosive or other hazardous properties of any explosive
    nuclear assembly or nuclear component of it;
    d) pressure waves caused by aircraft or other aerial devices travelling at sonic or
    supersonic speed.

    OK so in the event that London is destroyed, I will just have to take my share of the lumps.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    I have been feeling a bit under the weather over the last few days, so I took a covid test and it was positive.

    I have finally caught the plague. :open_mouth:

    You must be kind to yourself and rest

    Hope you soon recover
    Thank you. I think I already have. I am doing my normal stuff although I must make a pot of FUD broth in order to fortify myself :D:D

    I guess I will not be getting my autumn booster....
    I caught Covid for the first time about two weeks ago. I have no idea where I caught it. It was very minor. I felt slightly under the weather, and am fine now. I also passed it onto Mrs. F. Unfortunately, we were due to get our boosters and flu jags tomorrow, so have had to postpone them. I am guessing the previous jags, a year ago, had worn off.
    jags don't stop you getting anything apart from to the golf course.

    They just lessen the effects of Covid.

    Hope Mrs F is on her way to the golf course recovery also.
    Jags? Jabs surely
    A jag is a Scottish jab. If Partick Thistle played in the Premiership, their nickname would be The Jabs.
    "A jag is a Scottish jab", (tongue in cheek) ah so an ineffectual but demonstrative bit of a punch forwards?

    Maybe 'jag' is the older term.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    Does house insurance usually protect you in instances of nuclear war?

    Asking for a friend.

    Three problems.
    A living policyholder.
    An insurance company that hasn’t been annihilated.
    Insurance companies’ small print.
    What kind of event or action is sufficient, do you think, to trigger a sensible evacuation of one’s family to the countryside or even New Zealand?

    Asking for another friend.

    i may head off to south america if things escalate more.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Cicero said:

    AlistairM said:

    Russian sources claim that Russian 503rd regiment from Kreminna has been dispatched to Torske, presumably to help withdrawing the troops but I have my doubts. A bit late for that. Likely only a (tiny) morale boost to hold the line. #Lyman #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1575851452509040641

    Some Russian sources saying the Lyman pocket is now sealed. Perhaps 2000 troops now cut off. Large surrender underway soon, Seems like other areas are also in trouble and the deployment of the new conscripts is close to disastrous.

    The facts on the ground show Putin´s speech to be pure delusion. Tens of thousands are still leaving through Georgia alone.
    image

    Bruno Ganz - wherever you are, you made the world a better place....
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    PeterM said:

    glw said:

    PeterM said:

    does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3

    I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.

    So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.

    Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
    If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.

    An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
    instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
    If Putin bombed the UK, people would react with rage against Russia, not regret for supporting Ukraine.
    by that time it wouldnt matter the uk would be an irradiated wasteland and i would be hunting rats for food
    How many rats are there in Chelyabinsk?
  • TOPPING said:

    As luck would have it I am just looking at my insurance policy.

    There is no cover for:

    10) War, terrorism, radioactive contamination and pressure waves
    Any claim resulting directly or indirectly from or in connection with:
    a) war, terrorism, invasion, act of foreign enemy, hostilities or warlike operations
    (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection,
    uprising, military or usurped power;
    b) ionising radiation or contamination by radioactivity from any nuclear fuel or any
    nuclear waste from the combustion of nuclear fuel;
    c) the radioactive, toxic, explosive or other hazardous properties of any explosive
    nuclear assembly or nuclear component of it;
    d) pressure waves caused by aircraft or other aerial devices travelling at sonic or
    supersonic speed.

    Who would ever have thought that a post like that could be even considered as needed

    Terrible times
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552

    They have gone full tonto...

    Yes, but who is the "source" saying this? Is it a cabinet minister? One of the pretty young spads? A civil servant? It does sound a bit like one of our PB Conservatives....
    You can absolutely see the logic.
    There are many worthwhile reforms which the government has simply dodged because they are unpopular.

    But Truss has got it all wrong. Unpopularity is not the actual objective in itself.
    I think this is the only way it ends.

    The markets implode. "We expect to be unpopular"

    The polls explode. "We have an 80 seat majority"

    They can't get a vote through the commons. "Ummm"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    TOPPING said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Agreeable Doomsday lunch at the Grouch, tho

    Bruschetta with stracchino cheese, squash, chestnuts, crispy sage

    Vitello tonnato, tuna, capers & anchovies sauce, quail eggs!

    And now a superb Wehlener Riesling dessert wine

    if I die today I die well fed

    Ideally we hang on til Wednesday for Armageddon because I've got La Dame de Pic on Tuesday.
    Could we make it Thursday, please? Meeting a friend for lunch on Wednesday.
    Oh jeez are we putting our bids in. Mon/Tues I'm in Paris; Thurs I have a drinks, then Friday off for the weekend.

    So I have a window I suppose on Weds but if people are busy that night then I'm happy to bump it to next week.
    I've got stuff on everyday for the next week, although I guess my son doesn't have to move house if the world is going to end, but next Friday I am driving a Formula Renault car and I would rather not miss that if at all possible. if you could have a word with Putin I would appreciate it.
  • PeterM said:
    Wow, that must be about 0.5% of the population of the city.
  • TOPPING said:

    As luck would have it I am just looking at my insurance policy.

    There is no cover for:

    10) War, terrorism, radioactive contamination and pressure waves
    Any claim resulting directly or indirectly from or in connection with:
    a) war, terrorism, invasion, act of foreign enemy, hostilities or warlike operations
    (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection,
    uprising, military or usurped power;
    b) ionising radiation or contamination by radioactivity from any nuclear fuel or any
    nuclear waste from the combustion of nuclear fuel;
    c) the radioactive, toxic, explosive or other hazardous properties of any explosive
    nuclear assembly or nuclear component of it;
    d) pressure waves caused by aircraft or other aerial devices travelling at sonic or
    supersonic speed.

    e) Trussonomics.
  • eristdoof said:

    Conservative Home is in meltdown. I've just come across this comment under today's critical leader:

    Over on The Politicalbetting site they are running the headline 'A damning attack on Liz Truss from Conservativehome.'
    We are at the point where the editors of this site are supplying the enemies of the government and the wider conservative party with ammunition to attack both.
    In doing this, the editors are working for a Labour victory. It is high time they all considered their positions.


    PB: enemy of the government. You've got to laugh, haven't you?

    How insecure are they, if they think that the Political Betting leader articles are "enemies of the government".
    I feel all fuzzy and warm being an Enemy of The Government. Or maybe it is the covid....
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    England
    Lab 53%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%

    Scotland
    SNP 51%
    SLab 29%
    SCon 11%
    SLD 7%

    Wales
    WLab 53%
    WLD 18%
    WCon 16%
    PC 12%

    (Survation; 29 September; 1,092)

    Incredibly , SLab would only gain one seat with that projection. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, which is currently held by Alba. However, Mundell and Lamont wouldn’t be the last two Tories standing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    A job advert from HM Treasury reaches me. I kid you not, this is how the ad starts...

    "Are you interested in financial stability? If so, we'd love to hear from you!" https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575875929406046209/photo/1
  • Conservative Home is in meltdown. I've just come across this comment under today's critical leader:

    Over on The Politicalbetting site they are running the headline 'A damning attack on Liz Truss from Conservativehome.'
    We are at the point where the editors of this site are supplying the enemies of the government and the wider conservative party with ammunition to attack both.
    In doing this, the editors are working for a Labour victory. It is high time they all considered their positions.


    PB: enemy of the government. You've got to laugh, haven't you?

    The tragicomic bit is that ConHome is being planned for being insufficiently loyal.

    What is it they say about revolutions, children and menus?
This discussion has been closed.