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A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
imageA damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com

This should be worrying for Number 10 if only because it could encourage Tory MPs to initiate a confidence vote. It certainly chimes with just about every single Tory who has expressed a view to me.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,591
    edited September 30
    ConHome and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard having real goes at Liz Truss has made me warm to her.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    Ah, good old ContinuityIDS.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    IDS never got put to the voters.

    There is a precedent for the Tories realising the members have made a howler...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    She's not going this year. She's probably not going next year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    This is all.... really quite shit, isn't it?
  • Then again, vox populi, vox dei.

    Just imagine how bad it would be for the Tories if Liz Truss wasn't enjoying a honeymoon.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 29 Sep.

    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    FPT: Mr. Eagles, worse than Sansa's honeymoon?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    She's not going anywhere. This is Major 95 territory.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,967
    edited September 30
    She's lost ContinuityIDS, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Danny Blanchflower and Professor Peston.

    However will she cope?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,591
    edited September 30

    FPT: Mr. Eagles, worse than Sansa's honeymoon?

    Worse than that.

    Probably worse than the honeymoon that led to me being named as a co-respondent in somebody else's divorce proceedings.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    With chart - but it's the obvious Tories have 2 seats result which is always the case once Labour hit 50%


  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    She’s a goner by Christmas IMHO
  • She's lost ContinuityIDS, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daniel Blanchflower and Professor Peston.

    However will she cope?

    She's lost lifelong Tories like Casino Royale and MaxPB.

    I don't think you grasp the depth of her shiteness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    edited September 30
    eek said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    With chart - but it's the obvious Tories have 2 seats result which is always the case once Labour hit 50%


    It should actually be about 60 Tory seats on the similar Yougov but yes Truss has 6 months to make some recovery or she is as doomed as the dodo was and Wallace would have to be crowned leader by coronation with maybe Sunak back as Chancellor

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=yesZboQS5bn2OIqWKq6xsA
  • On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.
  • She's lost ContinuityIDS, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daniel Blanchflower and Professor Peston.

    However will she cope?

    She's lost lifelong Tories like Casino Royale and MaxPB.

    I don't think you grasp the depth of her shiteness.
    It. Was. A. Joke.

    I have said all along I don't care if she loses the next election. Had Sunak won, I'd want him to lose the next election anyway, so 2 years of Truss is better than the alternative for me. Sometimes you just need to take your winnings and run.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    She's lost ContinuityIDS, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daniel Blanchflower and Professor Peston.

    However will she cope?

    She's lost lifelong Tories like Casino Royale and MaxPB.

    I don't think you grasp the depth of her shiteness.
    She's lost the bond market, which is probably a lot more to the point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.

    Bleak times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited September 30

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
  • She's lost ContinuityIDS, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Daniel Blanchflower and Professor Peston.

    However will she cope?

    She's lost lifelong Tories like Casino Royale and MaxPB.

    I don't think you grasp the depth of her shiteness.
    She's lost the bond market, which is probably a lot more to the point.
    Yeah, that giant FU to the OBR and the markets today is the key point.

    The markets will not wait until November.
  • Then again, vox populi, vox dei.

    Just imagine how bad it would be for the Tories if Liz Truss wasn't enjoying a honeymoon.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 29 Sep.

    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Wow, LibDems, Greens and SNP together have more support than the Conservatives which is incredible considering the Tories normally get double this "vote" share

    https://twitter.com/HarisDotParis/status/1575821229633974272
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    With chart - but it's the obvious Tories have 2 seats result which is always the case once Labour hit 50%


    It should actually be about 60 Tory seats on the similar Yougov but yes Truss has 6 months to make some recovery or she is as doomed as the dodo was and Wallace would have to be crowned leader by coronation with maybe Sunak back as Chancellor

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=yesZboQS5bn2OIqWKq6xsA
    When you are arguing between 2 and 60 conservative seats at a GE then what is the point

    Truss has to go and Bloomberg just now cannot believe she has refused the OBR statement before November 23 and the pound is falling again

    Every day Truss and Kwarteng are in office they are a real danger to the people of this country let alone the conservatives party
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527

    IDS never got put to the voters.

    There is a precedent for the Tories realising the members have made a howler...

    They were in opposition and they solved it with a coronation. I'm not seeing a unity candidate at present.
  • Pulpstar said:

    She's not going anywhere. This is Major 95 territory.

    Sorry, but it looks and feels worse than that.
  • Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Chamberlain.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,768
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Neville Chamberlain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    "Conservative MPs should depose the prime minister and install Rishi Sunak, without consulting party members – but they won’t," writes @JohnRentoul

    https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/liz-truss-doomed-disaster-general-election-b2183101.html #LizTruss #RishiSunak
  • eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    So already the YouGov 33% is looking less of an outlier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233

    Pulpstar said:

    She's not going anywhere. This is Major 95 territory.

    Sorry, but it looks and feels worse than that.
    Are you saying the cones hotline was not as bad as a Sterling crisis, followed by the collapse of the housing market?
  • We should annex Kaliningrad today.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,768

    Pulpstar said:

    She's not going anywhere. This is Major 95 territory.

    Sorry, but it looks and feels worse than that.
    Just to play devil's advocate, the fact that things are undoubtedly worse (the Tories' stewardship of the economy was fine during Major's time in office) makes things tricky for Labour. The 1990s were a perfect storm - Tories fighting over Europe, but the public finances fairly good, and a very charismatic Labour leader ready to take over and just make small adjustments.

    Now, it may be that these circumstances lead to the Tories getting wiped out, but I think there is scope to do better than 1997...if they get rid of Truss.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Vlad speaking now about to formally annex ukrainian territories
  • @eek

    Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?

    Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope. :(
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,768

    We should annex Kaliningrad today.

    Truss's Falklands?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited September 30
    Ok. So what do we do?

    1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
    2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
    3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
    4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
    5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
    6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
    7. Increase VAT
    8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
    9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
    10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.

    That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.
  • tlg86 said:

    We should annex Kaliningrad today.

    Truss's Falklands?
    Yup.
  • Pulpstar said:

    She's not going anywhere. This is Major 95 territory.

    Sorry, but it looks and feels worse than that.
    Even at the very worst, there was (mostly) personal sympathy for Major as a decent and substantial figure doing his best. Not great, but good, and just overwhelmed by the circumstances. And after about 1993, it wasn't that bad a government- just obviously doomed.

    Truss doesn't really have that, mostly because she has done nothing to earn it. And whilst it's allowed for her fanclub to cry sour grapes over people leaving the Truss tent, the sufficiently true believers don't amount to enough people to win an election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Chamberlain.
    He lasted 3 years, GE arrives before then for Truss. I just can't see the Tories kicking her out with the length of time it took them to organise and plot against Boris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.

    Bleak times.
    I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing

    Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign

    Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer

    And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*

    *I don't actually do this, but I might start now



  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    Oh please they will become a laughing stock
  • Liz'n'Kwazi are like Bonnie and Clyde with the OBR in dogged pursuit and an inevitable messy denouement. A folie à deux for the 21st century.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Chamberlain.
    He lasted 3 years, GE arrives before then for Truss. I just can't see the Tories kicking her out with the length of time it took them to organise and plot against Boris.
    The currency and bond markets may do the heavy lifting for Tory MPs wanting to oust Truss.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Still party before country with the venal self interested tory mps
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    The Tories could recover significantly if they do dump Truss . Sunak looks even better after his forecasts came true so the public might think he knows what he’s talking about .

    Of course there will be the issue that the Tories have yet another new leader but how much will the public factor that into their vote?

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,967
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    Boris and "good communicator" are words I wouldn't put in the same postcode, let alone sentence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    PeterM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    Oh please they will become a laughing stock
    Become??
  • HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/
  • @eek

    Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?

    Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope. :(

    Have you failed to back him as next Tory leader?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,178
    edited September 30

    We should annex Kaliningrad today.

    Followed by a referendum in which 98% of the inhabitants vote to be part of the UK.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    DavidL said:

    Ok. So what do we do?

    1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
    2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
    3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
    4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
    5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
    6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
    7. Increase VAT
    8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
    9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
    10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.

    That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.

    I agree with most of these. No to increase in VAT (inflationary, regressive) instead increase income tax if necessary. Number 6 is crucial. Gas cap is a problem, need to protect businesses and consumers to some extent from spikes so some scheme is required.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    PeterM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    Oh please they will become a laughing stock
    Aye - The Tories need to stick with Truss and accept their thrashing by Starmer with humility.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.

    Bleak times.
    I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing

    Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign

    Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer

    And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*

    *I don't actually do this, but I might start now



    Im seeing lots of rolled eyes in the audience for vlads speech
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Watch Putin live. Right now. Annexing 20% of Ukraine

    Reassuringly, he looks completely mad


    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-putin-declares-annexation-eastern-ukraine
  • We should annex Kaliningrad today.

    Followed by a referendum in with 98% of the inhabitants vote to be part of the UK.
    Well I'd hold the plebiscite then give Kaliningrad to Ukraine.

    Although I am prepared to serve as Viceroy of Kaliningrad.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    Boris and "good communicator" are words I wouldn't put in the same postcode, let alone sentence.
    Truss can't lie very well. That's her biggest problem - for Boris it is his specialist subject.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    After a wild week, the Prime Minister is live on @BBCOne on Sunday - set your alarm earlier this week and get the coffee on for 8.30am! https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1575814415714230272
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    iirc I predicted on here a few months ago that v sadly he would use a battlefield nuke in late summer. So I was wrong. We can only hope that I was completely wrong rather than just out by a month or two.

    Bleak times.
    I reckon this market analyst is actually understating the chances. More like 50-60%. Dropping a small nuke is an incredible risk for Putin - but the alternatives are equally dismal, and probably less likely to save him short term. He cannot afford to lose, and he is losing

    Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign

    Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer

    And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*

    *I don't actually do this, but I might start now




    Im seeing lots of rolled eyes in the audience for vlads speech
    Heads, surely? Ed
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited September 30
    Lets say that we get a lot of people in negative equity who can no longer afford their overly risky mortgages.

    What happens to the banks?

    Haven't we been here before?

    Have the rules been tightened enough to stop 2008 Mk II?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited September 30

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    I'll quote 1 paragraph

    Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.

    So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
  • Lets say that we get a lot of people in negative equity who can no longer afford their overly risky mortgages.

    What happens to the banks?

    Haven't we been here before?

    Have the rules been tightened enough to stop 2008 Mk II?

    Yes and no.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.

    Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.

    If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
  • Scott_xP said:

    After a wild week, the Prime Minister is live on @BBCOne on Sunday - set your alarm earlier this week and get the coffee on for 8.30am! https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1575814415714230272

    A world popcorn shortage is now surely inevitable.
  • On the positive side, given how clogged up the courts are, I wouldn't expect to see any speedy repossession hearings.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited September 30
    nico679 said:

    The Tories could recover significantly if they do dump Truss . Sunak looks even better after his forecasts came true so the public might think he knows what he’s talking about .

    Of course there will be the issue that the Tories have yet another new leader but how much will the public factor that into their vote?

    It would make the Tories look utterly dysfunctional but it’s their best chance now of preventing disaster at the next GE (which they will still lose - the question is now the scale).

    Better to cut off the arm than risk the contagion spreading. Keeping Liz will just make things worse. She’s been tested and she’s just not up to the job. She’s actively making things more difficult every day.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,178

    Lets say that we get a lot of people in negative equity who can no longer afford their overly risky mortgages.

    What happens to the banks?

    Haven't we been here before?

    Have the rules been tightened enough to stop 2008 Mk II?

    That was Bailey’s previous job - the one he got promoted from.
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Neville Chamberlain.
    Maybe Dave Davis can do his (admittedly pretty rubbish) 'In the name of God, go' schtick?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552

    Lets say that we get a lot of people in negative equity who can no longer afford their overly risky mortgages.

    What happens to the banks?

    Haven't we been here before?

    Have the rules been tightened enough to stop 2008 Mk II?

    They were but the Tories apparently want to loosen those to make the City more competitive!
  • @eek

    Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?

    Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope. :(

    Have you failed to back him as next Tory leader?
    That truly made me smile! Thanks Alph.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited September 30
    The only Tory MP I've seen publicly come out against this shitshow is Julian Smith.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    This sounds close to a declaration war by Putin
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Liz Truss oversaw a Budget with the least amount of regard for fiscal discipline in the Tories’ 12 years in power.

    It is no surprise that the markets got nervous.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/30/tories-real-problem-afraid-cut-size-state/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,178

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic.

    ***Buffs nails***

    I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.

    The only examples I can find of PMs toppled after they took the reins from another PM of the same party and didn't make it through to the next GE are George Canning (Who died) and the Viscount Goderich (Who invited loads of opposition into his cabinet).
    Are there any more ?
    I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
    Neville Chamberlain.
    Maybe Dave Davis can do his (admittedly pretty rubbish) 'In the name of God, go' schtick?
    His brother Ray wrote better lyrics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    edited September 30
    Seems relevant to recall this.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4038523#Comment_4038523

    Edit:

    it's my comment as follows:

    "Just spoke to a friend who is a "senior Conservative". I asked about Truss. The SC knows her well.

    "She would be a disaster."

    Which means obvs Truss bolted on for PM."


    July 20th
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Pulpstar said:

    The only Tory MP I've seen publicly come out against this shitshow is Julian Smith.

    Tory MP Sir Charles Walker says he and others are prepared to vote against the budget, but says he believes the government will U-turn before then.

    "If it doesn't it's going to have a difficult time," he tells the World At One.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1575826548380278785
  • There are two opposing impossibilities:

    1. The removal of Liz Truss after half an hour in the job. There are so many reasons why even contemplating her removal is politically insane - that we are openly discussing how it could happen shows how far into political unreality we have travelled
    2. The continuation of the "this is fine" messaging around the "stay the course" economic plan. The -33% poll looks to be an outlier until we then get -20, -21 and even -30 polls to accompany it

    Neither impossibility looks set to back down. Truss and her cabal are wedded to their plan and apparently don't care about either the political impact or the market reaction. The market absolutely doesn't accept what they are saying or the "wait til late November timing or the proven lie about the OBR.

    And voters? From what I am seeing and hearing the reaction against their plan is visceral and widespread. Whats more after a disastrous media shitshow yesterday, we go into Tory conference. Where the masters of the universe will show just how out of touch with reality they are and how incapable they are of emoting.

    However impossible and political insane point 1 is, I can't see how the alternative isn't more impossible. By the end of conference it will clear to anyone outside her cabal that they have to be forcibly removed from the controls.

    Fun times ahead for students of politics!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    DavidL said:

    Ok. So what do we do?

    1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
    2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
    3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
    4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
    5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
    6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
    7. Increase VAT
    8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
    9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
    10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.

    That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.

    I agree with most of these. No to increase in VAT (inflationary, regressive) instead increase income tax if necessary. Number 6 is crucial. Gas cap is a problem, need to protect businesses and consumers to some extent from spikes so some scheme is required.
    I would zero rate fuel to offset this to some extent but the government needs to show it is real about wanting to pay its bills.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 148
    DavidL said:

    Ok. So what do we do?

    1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
    2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
    3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
    4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
    5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
    6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
    7. Increase VAT
    8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
    9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
    10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.

    That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.

    Feels like a good list. To me only 2 is politically very difficult to do (in general, not talking about this govt, politically they're utterly f***ed).

    I wonder what the combined affordability of all this would be, though? I'd add a condition that the combined 10 need to regain the confidence of the markets. Would these? I hope so but unsure.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.

    Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516
    edited September 30

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    With chart - but it's the obvious Tories have 2 seats result which is always the case once Labour hit 50%


    It should actually be about 60 Tory seats on the similar Yougov but yes Truss has 6 months to make some recovery or she is as doomed as the dodo was and Wallace would have to be crowned leader by coronation with maybe Sunak back as Chancellor

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=yesZboQS5bn2OIqWKq6xsA
    When you are arguing between 2 and 60 conservative seats at a GE then what is the point

    Truss has to go and Bloomberg just now cannot believe she has refused the OBR statement before November 23 and the pound is falling again

    Every day Truss and Kwarteng are in office they are a real danger to the people of this country let alone the conservatives party
    Well with 2 seats you wouldn't even be able to staff a shadow cabinet, at 60 they at least provide LOTO.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    All this Truss Budget bollocks, however serious, is being utterly overshadowed by what Putin is right now saying in Moscow



    PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE

    PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ


    Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    edited September 30
    eek said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    I'll quote 1 paragraph

    Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.

    So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
    Why are people pretending that increased interest rates are a surprise? They were actively discussed during her election, even by her own advisers and should have been priced in.

    Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    On the positive side, given how clogged up the courts are, I wouldn't expect to see any speedy repossession hearings.

    Saddest court I have ever seen was the heritable roll in Aberdeen about 18 months ago. Repossession after repossession, people in tears saying they have already reduced the price below their mortgage but no one was even coming to see it. People representing themselves just distraught. Horrible.

    But its coming back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233

    There are two opposing impossibilities:

    The immovable object of Truss' crapitude meets the unstoppable force of political reality
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Leon said:

    All this Truss Budget bollocks, however serious, is being utterly overshadowed by what Putin is right now saying in Moscow



    PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE

    PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ


    Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately

    Seems like Putin is fully ceeding Kharkov if Kyiv wants it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842

    @eek

    Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?

    Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope. :(

    Have you failed to back him as next Tory leader?
    That truly made me smile! Thanks Alph.
    It's surely academic, and an artefact of the separate calculation, but the two surviving on the YouGov Electoral Calculus prediction are the D&G pair of Mundell and Lamont.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs are starting to ask is it possible to “Bring Back Boris”. One texts saying they now have their eyes very much on the next election: “We will do whatever it takes to win. He is the best communicator we have.”
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115

    I honestly can't see any way back for Truss. The narrative of reckless incompetence is embedded so she will get the blame for all mortgage rises even though some rise in rates are absolutely inevitable. She is also a very poor media performer - she can't think on her feet or project empathy and she is also poor at set piece speeches. BoJo was partly good and partly crap (poor attention to detail) but could waffle and fib his way out of a tight corner. Makes one realise how brilliant Blair was on the communication front.

    I think the severity of the reaction will force Tory hands so a change in leader is likely which may well close the gap with Labour. If Truss continues or her replacement is a poor choice it gets very interesting - but I would expect a LD revival. There is a lot of anti-Labour sentiment and there must be many millions who are very negative about both main parties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978
    Putin's now using the Opium wars as an example of how the West operates.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    AlistairM said:

    Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.

    Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?

    Yep, it’s his Munich play - this is the extent of my ambitions. I will go no further.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    maxh said:

    DavidL said:

    Ok. So what do we do?

    1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
    2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
    3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
    4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
    5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
    6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
    7. Increase VAT
    8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
    9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
    10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.

    That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.

    Feels like a good list. To me only 2 is politically very difficult to do (in general, not talking about this govt, politically they're utterly f***ed).

    I wonder what the combined affordability of all this would be, though? I'd add a condition that the combined 10 need to regain the confidence of the markets. Would these? I hope so but unsure.
    That's why I had the VAT in there. Deficit reduction is a must or the markets are going to crucify us.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    A representative sample of voters were asked which one word comes to mind when you think about Liz Truss's economic policies?

    Top 5= Rich, Rubbish, Disaster, Disastrous, Cr*p
    @PeoplePolling Sep 28-29 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1575814003708002304/photo/1


  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    AlistairM said:

    Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.

    Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?

    Yep, it’s his Munich play - this is the extent of my ambitions. I will go no further.


    In 2014 the extent of his ambitions was the Crimea. That alone tells you he is an untrustworth, lying .....
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    edited September 30
    Leon said:

    All this Truss Budget bollocks, however serious, is being utterly overshadowed by what Putin is right now saying in Moscow



    PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE

    PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ


    Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately

    I saw some of the video. The faces in the audience were like those at a funeral.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    AlistairM said:

    Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.

    Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?


    Well yes. It’s all panning out as so many of us feared

    Ukraine will not stop fighting - and winning

    It really leaves Putin with only one option. As he is now defending Russians in Russian territory - and losing
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,967
    Scott_xP said:

    A representative sample of voters were asked which one word comes to mind when you think about Liz Truss's economic policies?

    Top 5= Rich, Rubbish, Disaster, Disastrous, Cr*p
    @PeoplePolling Sep 28-29 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1575814003708002304/photo/1


    There's a LOT of swear words in that.
This discussion has been closed.