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A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com
A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com
This should be worrying for Number 10 if only because it could encourage Tory MPs to initiate a confidence vote. It certainly chimes with just about every single Tory who has expressed a view to me.
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Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+10)
CON: 20% (-8)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 5% (-1)
Via
@PeoplePolling
, 29 Sep.
Changes w/ 21 Sep.
There is a precedent for the Tories realising the members have made a howler...
Just imagine how bad it would be for the Tories if Liz Truss wasn't enjoying a honeymoon.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 50% (+10)
CON: 20% (-8)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 5% (-1)
Via @PeoplePolling, 29 Sep.
Changes w/ 21 Sep.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456
However will she cope?
Probably worse than the honeymoon that led to me being named as a co-respondent in somebody else's divorce proceedings.
I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".
I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.
Where do you come out?"
https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ
I don't think you grasp the depth of her shiteness.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=yesZboQS5bn2OIqWKq6xsA
***Buffs nails***
I did tell you she was shite and wouldn't make it to conference 2023.
I have said all along I don't care if she loses the next election. Had Sunak won, I'd want him to lose the next election anyway, so 2 years of Truss is better than the alternative for me. Sometimes you just need to take your winnings and run.
Bleak times.
Are there any more ?
I'm betting against it happening with Truss. She might dispose of Kwarteng at some point, but he too is safe this year I believe.
The markets will not wait until November.
https://twitter.com/HarisDotParis/status/1575821229633974272
Truss has to go and Bloomberg just now cannot believe she has refused the OBR statement before November 23 and the pound is falling again
Every day Truss and Kwarteng are in office they are a real danger to the people of this country let alone the conservatives party
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/liz-truss-doomed-disaster-general-election-b2183101.html #LizTruss #RishiSunak
Now, it may be that these circumstances lead to the Tories getting wiped out, but I think there is scope to do better than 1997...if they get rid of Truss.
Out of interest, which are the two seats the Conservatives keep in a scenario where Labour >50% ?
Please don't tell me one of them is Sir Christopher Chope.
1 Reverse both the 45% and CT cuts.
2. Cancel the gas cap nonsense: we can’t afford it.
3. Increase benefits by enough to keep poor people warm.
4. Boost investment by super reliefs on capital spend and training.
5. Encourage the Bank to catch up with interest rates to secure pound and reduce imported inflation.
6. Accelerate domestic energy production by all means possible.
7. Increase VAT
8. Combine IT and NI so we all pay the same taxes on earnings and other income.
9. Offer those working in the public sector wage increases equivalent to inflation.
10. Increase instead of decreasing government capital spending.
That’s my starter for 10. Tough times, tough measures.
Truss doesn't really have that, mostly because she has done nothing to earn it. And whilst it's allowed for her fanclub to cry sour grapes over people leaving the Truss tent, the sufficiently true believers don't amount to enough people to win an election.
https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575752730202714115
Everything points to him getting desperate. eg now mobilising in Moscow. A massive red warning sign
Bleak indeed. The best outcome now - BEST - is maybe the war grinds on over winter, we have a horrible economic crisis - around the world - economies lurch into steep recession, million lose jobs, poor countries tip into civil strife, but then the war fades away in spring - somehow - fuel prices drop, economies pick up, we return slowly to something like normal: but quite a lot poorer
And yet I see the future being worse. The number of grave systemic threats to the world as we know it are too many and too fearsome. It is hard not to despair, or get completely laughingly drunk all the time*
*I don't actually do this, but I might start now
Of course there will be the issue that the Tories have yet another new leader but how much will the public factor that into their vote?
Truss needs to go now
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/
Reassuringly, he looks completely mad
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-putin-declares-annexation-eastern-ukraine
Although I am prepared to serve as Viceroy of Kaliningrad.
What happens to the banks?
Haven't we been here before?
Have the rules been tightened enough to stop 2008 Mk II?
Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.
If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
Better to cut off the arm than risk the contagion spreading. Keeping Liz will just make things worse. She’s been tested and she’s just not up to the job. She’s actively making things more difficult every day.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/us-mortgage-rates-high-freddie-mac
It is no surprise that the markets got nervous.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/30/tories-real-problem-afraid-cut-size-state/
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4038523#Comment_4038523
Edit:
it's my comment as follows:
"Just spoke to a friend who is a "senior Conservative". I asked about Truss. The SC knows her well.
"She would be a disaster."
Which means obvs Truss bolted on for PM."
July 20th
"If it doesn't it's going to have a difficult time," he tells the World At One.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1575826548380278785
1. The removal of Liz Truss after half an hour in the job. There are so many reasons why even contemplating her removal is politically insane - that we are openly discussing how it could happen shows how far into political unreality we have travelled
2. The continuation of the "this is fine" messaging around the "stay the course" economic plan. The -33% poll looks to be an outlier until we then get -20, -21 and even -30 polls to accompany it
Neither impossibility looks set to back down. Truss and her cabal are wedded to their plan and apparently don't care about either the political impact or the market reaction. The market absolutely doesn't accept what they are saying or the "wait til late November timing or the proven lie about the OBR.
And voters? From what I am seeing and hearing the reaction against their plan is visceral and widespread. Whats more after a disastrous media shitshow yesterday, we go into Tory conference. Where the masters of the universe will show just how out of touch with reality they are and how incapable they are of emoting.
However impossible and political insane point 1 is, I can't see how the alternative isn't more impossible. By the end of conference it will clear to anyone outside her cabal that they have to be forcibly removed from the controls.
Fun times ahead for students of politics!
I wonder what the combined affordability of all this would be, though? I'd add a condition that the combined 10 need to regain the confidence of the markets. Would these? I hope so but unsure.
Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?
PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA
PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE
PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ
Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
But its coming back.
I think the severity of the reaction will force Tory hands so a change in leader is likely which may well close the gap with Labour. If Truss continues or her replacement is a poor choice it gets very interesting - but I would expect a LD revival. There is a lot of anti-Labour sentiment and there must be many millions who are very negative about both main parties.
Top 5= Rich, Rubbish, Disaster, Disastrous, Cr*p
@PeoplePolling Sep 28-29 https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1575814003708002304/photo/1
Well yes. It’s all panning out as so many of us feared
Ukraine will not stop fighting - and winning
It really leaves Putin with only one option. As he is now defending Russians in Russian territory - and losing