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A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    biggles said:

    TOPPING said:

    biggles said:

    eek said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    I'll quote 1 paragraph

    Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.

    So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
    Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
    Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?

    Interesting take.
    No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?

    Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
    He does that sometimes. Just chill and be the better man.
    You always did strike me as a pushing from the back kind of guy.
  • .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.

    She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
  • novanova Posts: 525

    nova said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.

    In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.

    Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
    I wonder if those DKs are more of an inducement to depose Truss than the dire face value figures in the polls? Wouldn't need much of a nudge (ie anyone not Truss leading the Tory party) to get these guys back on board.
    I'm guessing just a bit coy about their preferences, or maybe just despairing at the moment. Not sure how PeoplePolling deal with them though - I think that a lot of the methodology changes over the years to deal with "shy Tories" was to reallocate a proportion of Don't Knows back to their previous vote. Whether those methods can cope with such a large number is debatable.

    It'll be interesting to see how Opinium's next poll comes out, as I believe their methodology change earlier this year cut Labour's vote for exactly that reason.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    True. Maybe the Tories are as nova suggests sulking at home rather than making the final decision and joining the LDs (who have become a rather specialised taste in Scotland, at least in Westminster).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,804

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    All this Truss Budget bollocks, however serious, is being utterly overshadowed by what Putin is right now saying in Moscow



    PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE

    PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ


    Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately

    I saw some of the video. The faces in the audience were like those at a funeral.

    Awful yes. They know what is probably coming next

    One insane man has trapped them all, and now the rest of us
    It's a perfect opportunity for them to start a slow hand clap and bring an end to this disaster.
    I admit I was *faintly* hoping for a Ceaușescu moment. But alas.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.

    She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
    Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,262
    My favourite take so far

    “JK Rowling and Vladimir Putin both are triggered by trans people and have made it their entire identities. Both are billionaires, but only one has nuclear weapons. What a couple of piss babies.”

    https://twitter.com/gorchmclorch/status/1575837664640528385?s=21&t=DSNMYZg3yFIlr8pu_lj9aw
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    There is nothing the Government should do about it either.
  • Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.

    They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
  • novanova Posts: 525
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    The problem isn't that it's just 200 people, surely it's that they won't have fully weighted to those 200 people, they'll have weighted the overall 2000.

    A correctly weighted sample of 200 would double the margin of error. A subsample that isn't weighted fully would send that margin of error through the roof.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    nova said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Lead slashed from 33 to 30 in the space of 24 hours. That's a bit worrying for Labour. Crossover coming?
    From polls averaging 25% lead for the Tories, to polls averaging a 25% lead for Labour in 30 months.

    Even the "shy Tory" polling turnaround under Kinnock wasn't that big.
    No, unless "shyness" has overcome the tory vote en masse this looks like an election winning lead for Labour, even allowing for "long time to go" and "only a fool" etc.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    AlistairM said:

    Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.

    Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?

    Yep, it’s his Munich play - this is the extent of my ambitions. I will go no further.

    "Give me what I want, and then we can talk about what more you'll give me."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Breaking news: UK pension schemes are dumping stocks and bonds to raise cash and seeking bailouts from their corporate backers as the crisis in the industry continues to rage a week after the government’s 'mini' Budget https://on.ft.com/3dYWiXl https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1575837761763942405/photo/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    glw said:

    .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.

    She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
    Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
    When there's a fire don't normal people try to control it or put it out rather than chucking petrol on it ?
  • PeterM said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html?campaign_id=190

    "‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray

    In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.

    Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.

    Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.

    Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.

    Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.

    ...

    Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.

    Why the f**k?

    Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."

    Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.

    This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
    Oh come on he hasnt slaughtered 6 million jews for a start
    He didn't really have the opportunity, but if he had......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited September 2022

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.

    They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
    Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
  • Leon said:

    My favourite take so far

    “JK Rowling and Vladimir Putin both are triggered by trans people and have made it their entire identities. Both are billionaires, but only one has nuclear weapons. What a couple of piss babies.”

    https://twitter.com/gorchmclorch/status/1575837664640528385?s=21&t=DSNMYZg3yFIlr8pu_lj9aw

    A 1000+ page novel whining about bad tweets and cancellation is pretty much the literary equivalent of a tactical nuclear weapon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    "This may seem weird, but I'm OK with that:

    I think the most important investment question for the next 6 months is "does Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?".

    I'm concerned the odds are up to maybe 35% likely, & rising.

    Where do you come out?"

    https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1575818826402263040?s=20&t=uvrhpasizW4QbkYJr3P_tQ

    The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.

    Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.

    If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
    NATO can very rapidly obliterate any ability for Russia to launch battlefield nukes. That would leave him with his strategic nuclear deterrence, to deter any attempt to occupy Russian territory within its internationally recognised borders.
    So your idea is NATO should pre-emptively attack Russia? Brilliant. Can’t see any problem with that
    Don't be daft, that is fairly obviously one of the retaliation to first use options.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking news: UK pension schemes are dumping stocks and bonds to raise cash and seeking bailouts from their corporate backers as the crisis in the industry continues to rage a week after the government’s 'mini' Budget https://on.ft.com/3dYWiXl https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1575837761763942405/photo/1

    If Pension schemes weren't funded sufficiently to cope with a rather small increase in yields, then they've been utterly mismanaged.
  • Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'm guessing Ru Paul's Drag Race isn't part of Putin's everyday TV viewing.

    Or perhaps it is ;)
  • Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    All parties appeal to different markets in different places, and the SNP are a good example of that. There are pretty large areas where they don't shy away from the "Tartan Tories" jibe at all, but rather embrace it.

    Having said that, massive caution over subsamples anyway - not selected to be representative within the sub-sample and, when you're looking at 200 people, the MoE is BIG.
  • .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.

    She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
    Has she taken the blame? Has she gone on the 6 o'clock news and apologised?

    I think what you really mean is that the blame has been stuck on her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    PeterM said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html?campaign_id=190

    "‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray

    In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.

    Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.

    Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.

    Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.

    Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.

    ...

    Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.

    Why the f**k?

    Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."

    Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.

    This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
    Oh come on he hasnt slaughtered 6 million jews for a start
    Not yet, but he's already murdered probably well over 100,000 Ukrainian civilians, is seeking to dissolve Ukraine as a country, and is threatening nuclear war.
    So he's a candidate for the pantheon.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm guessing Ru Paul's Drag Race isn't part of Putin's everyday TV viewing.

    Or perhaps it is ;)

    Weren't Stalin and Hitler big fans of Hollywood westerns? Perhaps Drag Race is Vlad's equivalent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    All this Truss Budget bollocks, however serious, is being utterly overshadowed by what Putin is right now saying in Moscow



    PUTIN: THERE ARE FOUR NEW REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    PUTIN: WE CALL ON KYIV TO IMMEDIATELY STOP MILITARY ACTIONS AND RETURN TO NEGOTIATION TABLE

    PUTIN: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575824762387021826?s=20&t=aGA_ZNARoL32Nj4prs2uNQ


    Exactly as predicted. Unfortunately

    I saw some of the video. The faces in the audience were like those at a funeral.

    Awful yes. They know what is probably coming next

    One insane man has trapped them all, and now the rest of us
    It's a perfect opportunity for them to start a slow hand clap and bring an end to this disaster.
    I admit I was *faintly* hoping for a Ceaușescu moment. But alas.
    Lol, I though these comments were referring to the Tory Party conference next week.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    True. Maybe the Tories are as nova suggests sulking at home rather than making the final decision and joining the LDs (who have become a rather specialised taste in Scotland, at least in Westminster).
    It was probably a very very bad idea for the Lib Dems to cancel their conference! Maybe cancel one day, the day of the funeral, but they missed a lot of publicity!
  • Former German Intelligence Chief Gerhard Schindler says that Russia carried out sabotage on Nord Stream

    By claiming the pipelines themselves are defective, Russia can have a firmer pretext to block gas shipments than replaceable parts, such as turbines


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1575830558197702657

    Not a lot of use for "carrot & stick" when you've thrown away the carrot.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    You light relief for the afternoon.
    I hadn't seen all of these shots before.

    NASA astronauts trying to walk on the moon
    https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1575463836907409421
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Fort Myers Beach, before and after Hurricane Ian.
    https://twitter.com/DrewMacFarlane/status/1575542302180839446
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Pulpstar said:

    When there's a fire don't normal people try to control it or put it out rather than chucking petrol on it ?

    Of course you don't want to do things that make things worse, but rates will still be going up. It's the last decade or so that is abnormal, not the kind of interest rates we have now and will see in the years ahead.
  • eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    At what point are we actually at War, given these enemy actions against the west?
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.

    They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
    Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
    Percentage of the total number of SCon voters. Which on latest polling is diddly squat 😄

    Yesterday’s famous YouGov (the 33 point lead headline one), had the Scottish Tories on just 10%, and that is the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking news: UK pension schemes are dumping stocks and bonds to raise cash and seeking bailouts from their corporate backers as the crisis in the industry continues to rage a week after the government’s 'mini' Budget https://on.ft.com/3dYWiXl https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1575837761763942405/photo/1

    If Pension schemes weren't funded sufficiently to cope with a rather small increase in yields, then they've been utterly mismanaged.
    Another story that sounds all too familiar.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    At what point are we actually at War, given these enemy actions against the west?
    When Russia starts a shooting war.

    They make threatening flights at UK airspace all the time, this is no different.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,262

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
    I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    nova said:

    nova said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.

    In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.

    Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
    I wonder if those DKs are more of an inducement to depose Truss than the dire face value figures in the polls? Wouldn't need much of a nudge (ie anyone not Truss leading the Tory party) to get these guys back on board.
    I'm guessing just a bit coy about their preferences, or maybe just despairing at the moment. Not sure how PeoplePolling deal with them though - I think that a lot of the methodology changes over the years to deal with "shy Tories" was to reallocate a proportion of Don't Knows back to their previous vote. Whether those methods can cope with such a large number is debatable.

    It'll be interesting to see how Opinium's next poll comes out, as I believe their methodology change earlier this year cut Labour's vote for exactly that reason.
    We haven't had an Opinium for a month, when they were coming out fortnightly. I assume we lost one because of HMQ's death?
  • Leon said:
    But he has a bigger shoe size than you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.

    They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
    Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
    Percentage of the total number of SCon voters. Which on latest polling is diddly squat 😄

    Yesterday’s famous YouGov (the 33 point lead headline one), had the Scottish Tories on just 10%, and that is the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples.
    Thank you.
  • Leon said:

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
    I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
    Trade in Stone Age tools ought to be roaring soon. That stockpile of flint dildos will come in handy after all.
  • Interesting conversation just now with a U.S. contact of mine. They don’t view a nuclear event as probable but are working hard to communicate precisely what the consequences would be. Both directly and indirectly.

    A couple of ideas floated (ha ha) one which I preferred to the other. Neither I have seen mentioned on here before so I don’t think I should be specific. But I definitely prefer one to the other and I would send a pretty clear message.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,782

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
  • Nigelb said:

    You light relief for the afternoon.
    I hadn't seen all of these shots before.

    NASA astronauts trying to walk on the moon
    https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1575463836907409421

    You can see the support cables between 0.19-0.25
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
    I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
    Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
  • If you watch this closely you can the Stalin-era flickers of fear on the faces of the puppet leaders and the sullen, worried-eyed audience members:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1575841716896399360
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
    Pandas, UFOs, loch monsters. A lot of things are more prominent in Scotland than Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    If Starmer really wanted to seal the next election now he could arrange a press conference this afternoon and give a serious, sombre and defiant speech in response to Putin’s annexations while Truss remains in hiding. “Our true PM”.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
    I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
    Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
    No batteries needed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    If you watch this closely you can the Stalin-era flickers of fear on the faces of the puppet leaders and the sullen, worried-eyed audience members:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1575841716896399360

    Good grief yes, they look petrified. Maybe they know what's coming :-(
  • I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    Apparently the west have agreed a mass non nuclear bombing campaign and immediate sinking of all Putin's black sea fleet

    It really would be WW111

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    Yeah I mean that is the crux. Plenty of gung ho on here they don't like it up 'em but a nuke is a nuke.

    The balance between understanding that if you let people get away with egregious aggressions then they are likely to continue egregiously to aggress; and knowing that stopping them might involve the annihilation of you, your friends, and your family.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.

    The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

    Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-wont-publish-watchdogs-budget-verdict-for-weeks-n90lqlgf7
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    glw said:

    .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.

    She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
    Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
    The public shouldn't expect the government to bail them out for every rash decision they make. But they do have a right to be angry if the government's mistakes make things worse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
    Pandas, UFOs, loch monsters. A lot of things are more prominent in Scotland than Tories.
    Stones of Scone. Monsters of Glamis. HMS Royal Oak.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    I imagine that the response would be very brutal.
  • Pensioners may well be very unimpressed with Truss if they are thinking of equity release
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.

    The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).

    So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
  • People Polling, working on behalf of that pinko bastion of Wokeness, GB News, also give Labour a 30pt lead!

    https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202209_GBN_W39_full.pdf#subsection*.12

    Lab 50 (!)
    Con 20
    LD 9
    Grn 8
    SNP 5
    Ref 3
    PC 0
    Other 4
  • I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    I'm sure a lot of the people closely involved will write about it in their memoirs, should we still have a publishing industry in the 2030s.
  • Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    one to set @Leon panicking

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-strengthen-security-oil-gas-installations-2022-09-27/

    Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.

    And so it starts.

    Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.

    Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
    I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
    Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
    No batteries needed.
    And no lubrication available.
    Liz’ll be in her element.
  • Pensioners may well be very unimpressed with Truss if they are thinking of equity release

    Actual size: 🎻
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
    Pandas, UFOs, loch monsters. A lot of things are more prominent in Scotland than Tories.
    Point of order/detail: pandas off home at end of 2023, mind.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Ukraine preparing for Russia's mobilised men?

    #Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets.
    M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    I would love to find out if if involved 100% probability of success knocking out Russia’s entire nuclear capability. That would be nice.

    Somewhere outside San Diego Tom Cruise and an elite corps of fighter pilots are busy planning their most daring adventure yet…
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2022

    People Polling, working on behalf of that pinko bastion of Wokeness, GB News, also give Labour a 30pt lead!

    https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202209_GBN_W39_full.pdf#subsection*.12

    Lab 50 (!)
    Con 20
    LD 9
    Grn 8
    SNP 5
    Ref 3
    PC 0
    Other 4

    … and the SNP a 31 point lead (!)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,782
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
    Pandas, UFOs, loch monsters. A lot of things are more prominent in Scotland than Tories.
    Stones of Scone. Monsters of Glamis. HMS Royal Oak.
    Ferries at the Ferguson shipyard?
  • I win again
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575816156937875456

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (+10)
    CON: 20% (-8)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 5% (-1)

    Via
    @PeoplePolling
    , 29 Sep.
    Changes w/ 21 Sep.

    Scottish break catastrophic for the Unionists:

    SNP 56%
    SLab 25%
    Grn 6%
    SLD 5%
    SCon 3%
    Ref 2%
    oth (presumably Alba) 2%

    Total pro-independence 64%
    Total Unionists 35%
    3%!
    That. Is. A. etc
    The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:

    - no flowers at the funeral;
    - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
    How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.

    I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).

    Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again? :)
    I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
    It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.

    Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
    Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
    I have, but only to do some research for @Leon

    Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
    Pandas, UFOs, loch monsters. A lot of things are more prominent in Scotland than Tories.
    Stones of Scone. Monsters of Glamis. HMS Royal Oak.
    Ferries at the Ferguson shipyard?
    That too ...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    I win again

    Your prize of the most obnoxiously smug poster hasn't ever been in any doubt, even after (and in fact enhanced by) your regenerations after twice being banned.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The fiscal statement was on the 23rd.

    Most of the details of the scheme had been published at least a couple of days beforehand.
    This is the business one, which was announced well after the domestic subsidy had been outlined.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/energy-bill-relief-scheme-help-for-businesses-and-other-non-domestic-customers
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited September 2022
    TimS said:

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    I would love to find out if if involved 100% probability of success knocking out Russia’s entire nuclear capability. That would be nice.

    Somewhere outside San Diego Tom Cruise and an elite corps of fighter pilots are busy planning their most daring adventure yet…
    Yet for some strange reason the ultra-manoeuvrable fifth gen planes won't do the job but F/A-18s will.
  • DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    There are videos of her from the election debates calling Sunak's suggestion that increased borrowing would result in rising interest rates 'project fear'.

    10+ years of base rates of 1% or less will do that to a politican. It was yet another failure of imagination.
    Or it could be the default reply for a modern Tory politician. 'It worked for Brexit ...'
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.

    The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

    Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-wont-publish-watchdogs-budget-verdict-for-weeks-n90lqlgf7

    Why can't the OBR publish its assessment publicly at the same time as submitting it to KK? Is it allowed to?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.

    The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

    Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-wont-publish-watchdogs-budget-verdict-for-weeks-n90lqlgf7

    Some Tory propagandist on the BBC news was claiming this would calm the markets. Hard to see how, when the markets are not going to be allowed to read the report.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    There's been some moves in the State polling for the Senate too. I think there is definitely a move towards the Republicans right now, the question is if it continues.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    As has been pointed out, though, Putin will have been told in broad terms what to expect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    AlistairM said:

    Ukraine preparing for Russia's mobilised men?

    #Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets.
    M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321

    Those Russian conscripts are going to need A LOT of tampons....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.

    The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).

    So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
    You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.

    When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, part of the market reaction is no one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone as government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment to part fund it reducing borrowing.

    You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    Yebbut... that includes a +5% for GOP from, er, Trafalgar.

    538 has the overall +1.2% for the Dems
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,262
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    There's been some moves in the State polling for the Senate too. I think there is definitely a move towards the Republicans right now, the question is if it continues.
    All the stuff that is driving voters to Labour in the UK will be driving voters to the GOP in the USA

    Cost of living, mortgage rates, housing crash, general instability - plus immigration in the USA

    As you said the other day, this is a general headwind against all governing parties in the West
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    Ok I'm lost here. What is the "generic vote"?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.

    Yebbut... that includes a +5% for GOP from, er, Trafalgar.

    538 has the overall +1.2% for the Dems
    That's pretty close to a GOP majority, is it not?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.

    The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).

    So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
    You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.

    When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, know one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment.

    You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
    Well of course they don't, since the cost of the intervention is partly dependent on market prices over the winter.
    I know you dislike the scheme, but I think your analysis is just wrong. Not least as it ignores the economic cost - and resultant revenue downside for the Treasury - of the deep recession which would follow no intervention.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The fiscal statement was on the 23rd.

    Most of the details of the scheme had been published at least a couple of days beforehand.
    This is the business one, which was announced well after the domestic subsidy had been outlined.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/energy-bill-relief-scheme-help-for-businesses-and-other-non-domestic-customers
    Interesting that the government have fixed the business rate for electricity at 21.1p per kWh, whereas the average domestic cap is 34.5p IIRC

    Edit: I think I must have that wrong so feel free to correct me.
  • Nigelb said:

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    As has been pointed out, though, Putin will have been told in broad terms what to expect.
    Presumably an all-out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine using all available conventional weapons.

    To which Putin will presumably have replied, "WW3 it is then."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    TimS said:

    If Starmer really wanted to seal the next election now he could arrange a press conference this afternoon and give a serious, sombre and defiant speech in response to Putin’s annexations while Truss remains in hiding. “Our true PM”.

    He's not our Prime Minister.

    Liz could rock up to Kyiv tomorrow to show solidarity, and Zelinskey could be the special guest in Birmingham next week. I doubt he has had a decent curry for a while.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,262
    Nigelb said:

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    As has been pointed out, though, Putin will have been told in broad terms what to expect.
    That speech was Putin preparing his people for total war with the West. He might not especially care if he loses, say, his Black Sea Fleet because then he can paint it as Russia versus All Of NATO, we are bound to suffer

    This is how he survives his colossal error of invasion. He escalates it insanely. But exactly how crazy does it get?
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HSBC release statement warn mass forced house sales as mortgage rise by £6,000 ps

    Truss needs to go now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-warns-mass-forced-sales-mortgage-costs-jump-5000-year/

    The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
    If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
    What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
    Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%

    If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
    She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
    I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.

    Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
    Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers

    The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
    Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.

    “The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.

    Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.

    I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
    The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.

    The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).

    So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
    You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.

    When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, part of the market reaction is no one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone as government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment to part fund it reducing borrowing.

    You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
    Not to forget the Bank of England only announced their QT etc on Thursday, with the markets then waiting for Kwarteng to speak. Their QT represented in one year 40 years worth of what the 45p tax change is supposed to represent.

    Ultimately the situation is complicated and to suggest that it is all one thing or another is missing the woods for the trees.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Nigelb said:

    I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.

    At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.

    As has been pointed out, though, Putin will have been told in broad terms what to expect.
    Presumably an all-out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine using all available conventional weapons.

    To which Putin will presumably have replied, "WW3 it is then."
    The moment Xi will have been waiting for :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    People Polling, working on behalf of that pinko bastion of Wokeness, GB News, also give Labour a 30pt lead!

    https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202209_GBN_W39_full.pdf#subsection*.12

    Lab 50 (!)
    Con 20
    LD 9
    Grn 8
    SNP 5
    Ref 3
    PC 0
    Other 4

    … and the SNP a 31 point lead (!)
    No a 12% lead, a swing from SNP to Labour since 2019
This discussion has been closed.