Households coming to the end of a fixed-term deal will soon face increases of around £5,000 a year. Before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement last Friday analysts were expecting repayments to rise by £3,500.
So Kwasi's statement has removed £125 a month (or 1 / 2 nights out a month) from household budgets....
Yet more evidence that traders are a bit slow and just follow the herd, which sadly in 2022 often means Twitter plays a role too.
Are you saying that "traders" should have taken a politician's word at face value?
Interesting take.
No. Can’t you read? Which word are you struggling with?
Edit - just seen you clipped why I wrote to wilfully misrepresent it. Twat.
He does that sometimes. Just chill and be the better man.
You always did strike me as a pushing from the back kind of guy.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.
In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.
Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
I wonder if those DKs are more of an inducement to depose Truss than the dire face value figures in the polls? Wouldn't need much of a nudge (ie anyone not Truss leading the Tory party) to get these guys back on board.
I'm guessing just a bit coy about their preferences, or maybe just despairing at the moment. Not sure how PeoplePolling deal with them though - I think that a lot of the methodology changes over the years to deal with "shy Tories" was to reallocate a proportion of Don't Knows back to their previous vote. Whether those methods can cope with such a large number is debatable.
It'll be interesting to see how Opinium's next poll comes out, as I believe their methodology change earlier this year cut Labour's vote for exactly that reason.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
True. Maybe the Tories are as nova suggests sulking at home rather than making the final decision and joining the LDs (who have become a rather specialised taste in Scotland, at least in Westminster).
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
“JK Rowling and Vladimir Putin both are triggered by trans people and have made it their entire identities. Both are billionaires, but only one has nuclear weapons. What a couple of piss babies.”
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
There is nothing the Government should do about it either.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.
They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
The problem isn't that it's just 200 people, surely it's that they won't have fully weighted to those 200 people, they'll have weighted the overall 2000.
A correctly weighted sample of 200 would double the margin of error. A subsample that isn't weighted fully would send that margin of error through the roof.
Lead slashed from 33 to 30 in the space of 24 hours. That's a bit worrying for Labour. Crossover coming?
From polls averaging 25% lead for the Tories, to polls averaging a 25% lead for Labour in 30 months.
Even the "shy Tory" polling turnaround under Kinnock wasn't that big.
No, unless "shyness" has overcome the tory vote en masse this looks like an election winning lead for Labour, even allowing for "long time to go" and "only a fool" etc.
Putin has made his speech to bring the 4 regions into Russia. However he now calls on Ukraine to now negotiate but those 4 regions are non-negotiable. This is what he thought was his get out - keep those 4 regions and spin it as a victory despite the catastrophic losses.
Ukraine will obviously not negotiate and why should they. So now what happens?
Yep, it’s his Munich play - this is the extent of my ambitions. I will go no further.
"Give me what I want, and then we can talk about what more you'll give me."
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
When there's a fire don't normal people try to control it or put it out rather than chucking petrol on it ?
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.
This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
Oh come on he hasnt slaughtered 6 million jews for a start
He didn't really have the opportunity, but if he had......
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.
They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
“JK Rowling and Vladimir Putin both are triggered by trans people and have made it their entire identities. Both are billionaires, but only one has nuclear weapons. What a couple of piss babies.”
The likelihood is surely quite high because, as I recall, their military doctrine is that they can use it to defend Russia, which they have now of course extended by way of this annexation. The whole thing looks like a path to using a battlefield nuke. Maybe that is what he wants us to think. But he is running out of other options. His conventional forces are failing and the conscript army is going to be wiped out.
Sadly this is part of the inherent dangers of trying to 'beat back Putin'. There was some wisdom in this idea that we should 'give Putin an off ramp'. The useful opposition to Putin is of a small size and they are all trying to flee the country to avoid military service, they aren't going to rise up.
If Putin uses a battlefield nuke, how exactly do we 'beat back Russia' then? I truly don't think there is any good answer to that.
NATO can very rapidly obliterate any ability for Russia to launch battlefield nukes. That would leave him with his strategic nuclear deterrence, to deter any attempt to occupy Russian territory within its internationally recognised borders.
So your idea is NATO should pre-emptively attack Russia? Brilliant. Can’t see any problem with that
Don't be daft, that is fairly obviously one of the retaliation to first use options.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
All parties appeal to different markets in different places, and the SNP are a good example of that. There are pretty large areas where they don't shy away from the "Tartan Tories" jibe at all, but rather embrace it.
Having said that, massive caution over subsamples anyway - not selected to be representative within the sub-sample and, when you're looking at 200 people, the MoE is BIG.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
Has she taken the blame? Has she gone on the 6 o'clock news and apologised?
I think what you really mean is that the blame has been stuck on her.
"‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.
Yevgeniy: We are positioned in Bucha town.
Sergey: Our offense has stalled. We’re losing this war.
Andrey: Half of our regiment is gone.
Sergey: We were given an order to kill everyone we see.
...
Sergey to girlfriend: They told us that, where we’re going, there’s a lot of civilians walking around. And they gave us the order to kill everyone we see.
Why the f**k?
Because they might give away our positions. … That’s what we’re f**king going to do, it seems. Kill any civilian that walks by and drag them into the forest. … I’ve already become a murderer. That’s why I don’t want to kill any more people, especially ones I will have to look in the eyes."
Putins got a good chance of being seen as one of the most evil persons ever in history after this.
This is Hitler and Stalin level stuff.
Oh come on he hasnt slaughtered 6 million jews for a start
Not yet, but he's already murdered probably well over 100,000 Ukrainian civilians, is seeking to dissolve Ukraine as a country, and is threatening nuclear war. So he's a candidate for the pantheon.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
True. Maybe the Tories are as nova suggests sulking at home rather than making the final decision and joining the LDs (who have become a rather specialised taste in Scotland, at least in Westminster).
It was probably a very very bad idea for the Lib Dems to cancel their conference! Maybe cancel one day, the day of the funeral, but they missed a lot of publicity!
When there's a fire don't normal people try to control it or put it out rather than chucking petrol on it ?
Of course you don't want to do things that make things worse, but rates will still be going up. It's the last decade or so that is abnormal, not the kind of interest rates we have now and will see in the years ahead.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.
They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
Percentage of the total number of SCon voters. Which on latest polling is diddly squat 😄
Yesterday’s famous YouGov (the 33 point lead headline one), had the Scottish Tories on just 10%, and that is the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples.
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.
And so it starts.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
There has been a lot of talk about Tory > Labour movement recently, but there are still a LOT of don't knows in the 2019 Tory voter column and they're driving the huge leads.
In total, of the 2019 Tories, 17% say Labour, 38% still Tory, but a ridiculous 29% saying Don't Know.
Of Labour 2019 voters the comparable figure is 7%, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Don't Knows will get over their shock and move back to the Tories. I suspect so, and it's one reason why we don't get 30pt leads in actual elections.
I wonder if those DKs are more of an inducement to depose Truss than the dire face value figures in the polls? Wouldn't need much of a nudge (ie anyone not Truss leading the Tory party) to get these guys back on board.
I'm guessing just a bit coy about their preferences, or maybe just despairing at the moment. Not sure how PeoplePolling deal with them though - I think that a lot of the methodology changes over the years to deal with "shy Tories" was to reallocate a proportion of Don't Knows back to their previous vote. Whether those methods can cope with such a large number is debatable.
It'll be interesting to see how Opinium's next poll comes out, as I believe their methodology change earlier this year cut Labour's vote for exactly that reason.
We haven't had an Opinium for a month, when they were coming out fortnightly. I assume we lost one because of HMQ's death?
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
5% of Scottish Tory voters were pro-independence when the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey was conducted last year. Could’ve doubled.
They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
Percentage points or percentage of the total Tories numbers, please?
Percentage of the total number of SCon voters. Which on latest polling is diddly squat 😄
Yesterday’s famous YouGov (the 33 point lead headline one), had the Scottish Tories on just 10%, and that is the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples.
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.
And so it starts.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
Trade in Stone Age tools ought to be roaring soon. That stockpile of flint dildos will come in handy after all.
Interesting conversation just now with a U.S. contact of mine. They don’t view a nuclear event as probable but are working hard to communicate precisely what the consequences would be. Both directly and indirectly.
A couple of ideas floated (ha ha) one which I preferred to the other. Neither I have seen mentioned on here before so I don’t think I should be specific. But I definitely prefer one to the other and I would send a pretty clear message.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.
And so it starts.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
If Starmer really wanted to seal the next election now he could arrange a press conference this afternoon and give a serious, sombre and defiant speech in response to Putin’s annexations while Truss remains in hiding. “Our true PM”.
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.
And so it starts.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.
At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.
Yeah I mean that is the crux. Plenty of gung ho on here they don't like it up 'em but a nuke is a nuke.
The balance between understanding that if you let people get away with egregious aggressions then they are likely to continue egregiously to aggress; and knowing that stopping them might involve the annihilation of you, your friends, and your family.
Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.
The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
It would, base rates are rising rapidly around the globe.
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
Even if Kwarteng had done absolutely nothing last week rates would be headed skyward. We've had rates at the lowest level of The Bank of England's entire history, anyone who was thinking they won't eventually rise substantially is a fool. Of course lenders are meant to weed out the fools, but it never seems to work.
The public shouldn't expect the government to bail them out for every rash decision they make. But they do have a right to be angry if the government's mistakes make things worse.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.
The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).
So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
What I don’t really understand is that about three weeks ago we were meant to finally be getting the ‘real’ Brexit that ‘people actually voted for’, and yet somehow now it’s here absolutely no one would vote for it if you paid them. https://twitter.com/PeoplePolling/status/1575813482024665088
Russia is supposedly send drones over Norwegian oil rigs.
And so it starts.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
I’m having a doomsday lunch in the Groucho. Using the last of my Covid credit. Tho I might as well spend my own money before it becomes useless and we shift to barter
Look on the bright side, flint-knapping might be quite a useful skill in the post-nuclear Stone Age.
No batteries needed.
And no lubrication available. Liz’ll be in her element.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
#Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets. M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
The Ruth Davidson Says No Party commemorative service:
- no flowers at the funeral; - and don’t give the Chancellor any cocaine just before he enters the church.
How extraordinary. Some Labour votes must have shuffled SNP-wards - or some Tories seen the light on indy. Those figures for over-65 in another poll however were consistent with that.
I'd like to see more proper polls though (ie for Scots voters).
Are we doing Scottish sub-samples again?
I'm afraid we are standing round them poking them with a stick picked up from the ground. As my comment re proper polls implies (which was also intended to avert any threat of a ban).
It's still 200 people, to be fair. Wouldn't be surprised if there has been a huge crash in Scons.
Weird that Lib Dems haven't gone up. Natural 2nd option for Perthshire (etc) Tories, I'd have thought.
Have you been to Perthshire recently? The “county set” is much diminished. They have slowly started to reconcile themselves with political reality. Life in an independent country has its attractions.
Your prize of the most obnoxiously smug poster hasn't ever been in any doubt, even after (and in fact enhanced by) your regenerations after twice being banned.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
There are videos of her from the election debates calling Sunak's suggestion that increased borrowing would result in rising interest rates 'project fear'.
10+ years of base rates of 1% or less will do that to a politican. It was yet another failure of imagination.
Or it could be the default reply for a modern Tory politician. 'It worked for Brexit ...'
Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.
The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.
Liz Truss is refusing to publish an independent assessment of her tax-cutting plans until the government announces more economic reforms in November.
The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.
Some Tory propagandist on the BBC news was claiming this would calm the markets. Hard to see how, when the markets are not going to be allowed to read the report.
O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.
There's been some moves in the State polling for the Senate too. I think there is definitely a move towards the Republicans right now, the question is if it continues.
#Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets. M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321
Those Russian conscripts are going to need A LOT of tampons....
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.
The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).
So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.
When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, part of the market reaction is no one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone as government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment to part fund it reducing borrowing.
You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.
There's been some moves in the State polling for the Senate too. I think there is definitely a move towards the Republicans right now, the question is if it continues.
All the stuff that is driving voters to Labour in the UK will be driving voters to the GOP in the USA
Cost of living, mortgage rates, housing crash, general instability - plus immigration in the USA
As you said the other day, this is a general headwind against all governing parties in the West
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.
The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).
So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.
When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, know one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment.
You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
Well of course they don't, since the cost of the intervention is partly dependent on market prices over the winter. I know you dislike the scheme, but I think your analysis is just wrong. Not least as it ignores the economic cost - and resultant revenue downside for the Treasury - of the deep recession which would follow no intervention.
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
If Starmer really wanted to seal the next election now he could arrange a press conference this afternoon and give a serious, sombre and defiant speech in response to Putin’s annexations while Truss remains in hiding. “Our true PM”.
He's not our Prime Minister.
Liz could rock up to Kyiv tomorrow to show solidarity, and Zelinskey could be the special guest in Birmingham next week. I doubt he has had a decent curry for a while.
I would dearly love to know what the West's (i.e. the US's) response would be were Putin to use a tactical nuke.
At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.
As has been pointed out, though, Putin will have been told in broad terms what to expect.
That speech was Putin preparing his people for total war with the West. He might not especially care if he loses, say, his Black Sea Fleet because then he can paint it as Russia versus All Of NATO, we are bound to suffer
This is how he survives his colossal error of invasion. He escalates it insanely. But exactly how crazy does it get?
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
The government cannot underwrite everybody's bloody mortgage. Changes in mortgage rates are a known risk. There may be lots of reasons for her to go but this is simply not one.
If you read the article there are £1500 reasons for her to go....
What, the PM should go because mortgage rates go up 1%. I mean, are you serious?
Thanks to her ill considered plans, botched announcements and cack-handed approach she will have nearly doubled mortgage rates from 2.7% to 5.5%
If she had kept her big gob shut and let the OBR do its job then this would not be happening.
She is incompetent and she has made a very bad situation worse but a major part of our problem was the failure of the BoE to follow the Fed with a 0.75% increase in rates about 10 days ago. Sterling was already under continuous pressure before the episode of loony tunes last week. This was aggravating inflation, not least in fuel costs, and was a clear breach of the Bank's mandate. The era of ultra low interest rates is at an end and there is nothing the government can do about it.
I am not disagreeing with the fact that rates were going up, but even a total moron would have known not to do something that makes them rise faster.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Germany yesterday borrowed 200 billion euros to help consumers
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
Sorry Big G, but to be fair I have to do the same to you as I did to Eek yesterday - you are both very nice posters but my claim is you are talking absolute bollocks and spin and I’m asking you for some citation to support your argument.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
The announcement of the energy cap came in early September.
The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).
So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
You can announce a moon programme, but not announce how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to be paid for.
When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, part of the market reaction is no one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone as government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment to part fund it reducing borrowing.
You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
Not to forget the Bank of England only announced their QT etc on Thursday, with the markets then waiting for Kwarteng to speak. Their QT represented in one year 40 years worth of what the 45p tax change is supposed to represent.
Ultimately the situation is complicated and to suggest that it is all one thing or another is missing the woods for the trees.
Comments
She's taken the political blame though. That's what happens when you're PM though, the buck stops there.
It'll be interesting to see how Opinium's next poll comes out, as I believe their methodology change earlier this year cut Labour's vote for exactly that reason.
“JK Rowling and Vladimir Putin both are triggered by trans people and have made it their entire identities. Both are billionaires, but only one has nuclear weapons. What a couple of piss babies.”
https://twitter.com/gorchmclorch/status/1575837664640528385?s=21&t=DSNMYZg3yFIlr8pu_lj9aw
They are a small demographic, but an important one. We need a pro-Scottish centre-right.
A correctly weighted sample of 200 would double the margin of error. A subsample that isn't weighted fully would send that margin of error through the roof.
Hope everyone is well stocked up with corned beef, fresh water and corrugated iron.
Look forward to meeting the survivors at the National Liberal Club in exile, Santiago, May 2033.
Besides, putting all that to one side, who the hell borrows £100bn in a time of rising rates?, especially when it is a loan she did not need to make.
Or perhaps it is
Having said that, massive caution over subsamples anyway - not selected to be representative within the sub-sample and, when you're looking at 200 people, the MoE is BIG.
I think what you really mean is that the blame has been stuck on her.
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575835635897618435?s=21&t=DSNMYZg3yFIlr8pu_lj9aw
So he's a candidate for the pantheon.
The 100 billion energy relief was fine it was the tax borrowed measures that were ill judged
By claiming the pipelines themselves are defective, Russia can have a firmer pretext to block gas shipments than replaceable parts, such as turbines
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1575830558197702657
Not a lot of use for "carrot & stick" when you've thrown away the carrot.....
I hadn't seen all of these shots before.
NASA astronauts trying to walk on the moon
https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1575463836907409421
https://twitter.com/DrewMacFarlane/status/1575542302180839446
Yesterday’s famous YouGov (the 33 point lead headline one), had the Scottish Tories on just 10%, and that is the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples.
They make threatening flights at UK airspace all the time, this is no different.
A couple of ideas floated (ha ha) one which I preferred to the other. Neither I have seen mentioned on here before so I don’t think I should be specific. But I definitely prefer one to the other and I would send a pretty clear message.
Soon: "There are more UFOs in Scotland than Tory MPs"
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1575841716896399360
At the same time, I would dearly love never to find out.
“The 100 billion energy relief was fine”.
Firstly, where are you getting the tiddly £100B figure from, thru life costs to meet Truss promise all up to the election is nearer on quarter of a trillion in borrowing.
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as We are doing it.
I want evidence it’s been built into the market for weeks. It was announced with zero detail. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, that wasn’t still being waited on last Friday, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
It really would be WW111
The balance between understanding that if you let people get away with egregious aggressions then they are likely to continue egregiously to aggress; and knowing that stopping them might involve the annihilation of you, your friends, and your family.
The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, are resisting pressure from Tory MPs to publish analysis from the fiscal watchdog to calm the markets. Truss and Kwarteng held an emergency meeting this morning with Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Afterwards the OBR said it would submit its assessment to the chancellor next Friday. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies,” a spokesman said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-wont-publish-watchdogs-budget-verdict-for-weeks-n90lqlgf7
The announcement of the business energy cap was made last Wednesday (the 21st).
So yep you are talking complete and utter rubbish....
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202209_GBN_W39_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Lab 50 (!)
Con 20
LD 9
Grn 8
SNP 5
Ref 3
PC 0
Other 4
Liz’ll be in her element.
O/T but for those betting on the House, the generic vote has shifted back towards the Republicans.
#Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets.
M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321
Somewhere outside San Diego Tom Cruise and an elite corps of fighter pilots are busy planning their most daring adventure yet…
Most of the details of the scheme had been published at least a couple of days beforehand.
This is the business one, which was announced well after the domestic subsidy had been outlined.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/energy-bill-relief-scheme-help-for-businesses-and-other-non-domestic-customers
When Kwarteng stood up last week, how much those energy price freeze announcements would cost and how they would be paid for was still being waited on. In fact I’ll take it further, the markets still don’t know, part of the market reaction is no one knows how much the energy freeze policy costs thru life and exit plan for it - how it is to be paid for is definitely not set in stone as government could announce windfall tax or a tax rise at any moment to part fund it reducing borrowing.
You are wrong to claim all these things were known so priced in when Kwarteng rose to speak last Friday.
538 has the overall +1.2% for the Dems
Cost of living, mortgage rates, housing crash, general instability - plus immigration in the USA
As you said the other day, this is a general headwind against all governing parties in the West
I know you dislike the scheme, but I think your analysis is just wrong. Not least as it ignores the economic cost - and resultant revenue downside for the Treasury - of the deep recession which would follow no intervention.
Edit: I think I must have that wrong so feel free to correct me.
To which Putin will presumably have replied, "WW3 it is then."
Liz could rock up to Kyiv tomorrow to show solidarity, and Zelinskey could be the special guest in Birmingham next week. I doubt he has had a decent curry for a while.
This is how he survives his colossal error of invasion. He escalates it insanely. But exactly how crazy does it get?
Ultimately the situation is complicated and to suggest that it is all one thing or another is missing the woods for the trees.