And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Careful, you'll get dragged into a tedious day-long debate with the esteemed Barty about the definition of libel. Master of everything, expert in? No-one quite knows. But he sure will tell you his opinion on it, again and again.
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree module on defamation was a few years ago, I do very clearly remember the detail.
A story that is featuring in multiple major newspapers in various stages - from reports of the private TK dinner with hedgies before the budget to the snippets in the Sunday Times about who was at this dinner and what they were doing, then in the Standard about "getting wind" of the 45p abolition. Then multiple reports of calls for the FCA to investigate this potential insider trading.
My comment is not defamation of anyone. It is comment on a published running multiple-sourced story. Any alleged libel is publication on a matter of public interest. And with respect to BR and now William, then can huff and puff and scweam and scweam until they are sick. Doesn't change anything.
Imagine a BR world. Where reporters can't report what they are told. About private dinners with the Chancellor and hedgies. With hedgies "getting wind" of changes before it was public knowledge. Where we have to accept we are lower than our betters and shouldn't question such things. That we are automatically wrong because we are stupid. The wrong sort of people...
The pound has bounced strongly from its low point during hours of low liquidity in Asia trading hours on Monday morning. That's with the chancellor saying there are more tax cuts to come, and the BoE saying last night they won't even bother meeting again until November ("Go F yourself Market warship!").
No doubt we've still got weeks ahead of shrill screeching about how the "economy has been destroyed". Too many aren't looking with a wide enough lens. Sterling has lost 20% vs the dollar in the last 12mths, the Euro 18%. One of those two currencies crossed the faux important threshold of parity and it wasn't sterling. Meanwhile with the BoE and Fed both starting to unwind QE, both have seen increases in bond yields. But the risk premium between the UK to the US for 10-years is still only 0.26% (4.10% vs 3.84%).
I can't recall an episode of such misplaced hysteria. Not to say the UK economy doesn't have severe structural problems. But talk of "crashing the economy" or even a currency crisis (!) are hard to comprehend other than through partisan politics or the doom loop prism that some people seem so attached to. The BBC even carried a long segment yesterday explaining the Exchange Rate Mechanism. I mean really! The circumstances are now wholly different as anyone with even a fleeting understanding knows.
Yield curve inversion is a normal feature going into a recessionary period, it doesn't mean "the market has lost confidence". The DMO is auctioning £1.2bn of gilts today, before proclaiming that Truss or KK won't last the week, let's wait and see if this auction fails or more likely it has highly comfortable coverage.
Indeed, yesterday morning all the talk on here was of Black Monday and that we are in the worst financial crisis since Denis Healey was Chancellor all because of a £2 billion tax cut.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
People noticed a US anti-submarine warfare helicopter stationed seaward of Kaliningrad for the last several days. Was that watching for Russian sub movements that might interfere with sabotage of the pipeline, or perpetrate it?
Why would the Russians need to sabotage it? They can just cut off the supply. Russia I'm sure hopes to sell gas to Europe in the future.
I personally think that in the long term this is good news. Stop all European usage of Russian gas and switch to renewables.
Russia is not necessarily a cohesive whole. Damaging the pipeline reduces the incentives for moderates to overthrow Putin, sue for peace and start selling gas to Europe again, because the upside for them is smaller.
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I absolutely hate this ridiculous idea that politicians, who have reached senior office, are 'thick' or 'bonkers'. They are not. They may have different opinions that you, but they certainly must have some ability in order for them to have been selected and then elected.
Some are thick - in all parties. Has Simon Clarke done anything to suggest there is a brain in there?
Some are bonkers - Desmond Swayne. Richard Burgon.
Jackpot is when they are thick and bonkers. And get promoted to cabinet - Nadine Dorries.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Truss knew about all of KK plans and may have suggested some? Are you sure?
This lady had to be helped out when she got lost in her own launch event. When she finished reading the auto cue KK had written for her, she didn’t have a scooby what to do next, she didn’t even wait for applause or shake any hands (there’s a theme developing here) she just legged it. Into a cul de sac.
Someone needs to mash up Truss and Kwarteng as Pinky and the Brain.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
Indeed, its amusing that people are responding to an economic statement designed to encourage growth by suggesting that a small fall in Sterling is a problem.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...
More royalist than the king as usual Barty, I don't see any mainstream tories going down the crashing the currency is good route.
Imports being expensive means stuff is more expensive. All stuff, for everyone. Have a look around at your car, furniture, electrical goods, the clothes you are wearing and the contents of your fridge and tell me how much was made in the UK.
Exports being competitive is largely baloney. Manufacturing = doing things to imprted materials with the help of imported energy. Your model is not just o level economics, it is 50 years ago o level economics.
Today, I share the same thoughts as the people of Japan in remembering the remarkable life of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Former Prime Minister Abe's longstanding warm friendship with the United Kingdom remains an enduring legacy in the close friendship between Japan and the United Kingdom today.
Yes thanks, I was able to click on the translate this tweet button just as easily as you.
UK electricity, which represents less than 20% of its energy consumption.
Is electricity less than 20% of total UK energy consumption? That sounds low.
You're right. I hadn't appreciated how much things have changed since I last researched this in 2010.
What percentage is electricity now?
I am currently too busy to research it properly, but a cursory glance at DUKES says the UK used 106.6 millions of tonnes of oil equivalent in 2021. This converts to 1239.758 TWh, versus 334.2 TWh electricity demand, which points towards 27%. However, this is a very rudimentary way of looking at it. From memory, the figure was just shy of 16% in 2010.
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I absolutely hate this ridiculous idea that politicians, who have reached senior office, are 'thick' or 'bonkers'. They are not. They may have different opinions that you, but they certainly must have some ability in order for them to have been selected and then elected.
Playing thick can be a decent political strategy.
Politics also attracts smart people who are made dumb by ideology and belief, and they can ascend to high office in the right circumstances. That may well be something we are seeing now.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
Indeed, its amusing that people are responding to an economic statement designed to encourage growth by suggesting that a small fall in Sterling is a problem.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...
More royalist than the king as usual Barty, I don't see any mainstream tories going down the crashing the currency is good route.
Imports being expensive means stuff is more expensive. All stuff, for everyone. Have a look around at your car, furniture, electrical goods, the clothes you are wearing and the contents of your fridge and tell me how much was made in the UK.
Exports being competitive is largely baloney. Manufacturing = doing things to imprted materials with the help of imported energy. Your model is not just o level economics, it is 50 years ago o level economics.
Actually a lot of people export services priced in dollars.
But wait, I forgot, to you the services sector in this country extends to your hairdresser and your butler.
Simon Schama @simon_schama Truss' Oxford tutor commented on her obstinate refusal to concede she might be wrong even when confronted by evidence that she was
Well he went to a university that doesn't offer degrees in journalism.
I am quoting both the legal definitions of and the defences of defamation. Which BR accused me of and you joined in on. It was not defamation - unless you have a better definition with whatever your expertise is to prove me wrong?
No?
Best to let it drop luv. It "just reflects poorly" on you.
Simon Schama @simon_schama Truss' Oxford tutor commented on her obstinate refusal to concede she might be wrong even when confronted by evidence that she was
Presumably she realised that being a Lib Dem was wrong.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Careful, you'll get dragged into a tedious day-long debate with the esteemed Barty about the definition of libel. Master of everything, expert in? No-one quite knows. But he sure will tell you his opinion on it, again and again.
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree module on defamation was a few years ago, I do very clearly remember the detail.
A story that is featuring in multiple major newspapers in various stages - from reports of the private TK dinner with hedgies before the budget to the snippets in the Sunday Times about who was at this dinner and what they were doing, then in the Standard about "getting wind" of the 45p abolition. Then multiple reports of calls for the FCA to investigate this potential insider trading.
My comment is not defamation of anyone. It is comment on a published running multiple-sourced story. Any alleged libel is publication on a matter of public interest. And with respect to BR and now William, then can huff and puff and scweam and scweam until they are sick. Doesn't change anything.
Imagine a BR world. Where reporters can't report what they are told. About private dinners with the Chancellor and hedgies. With hedgies "getting wind" of changes before it was public knowledge. Where we have to accept we are lower than our betters and shouldn't question such things. That we are automatically wrong because we are stupid. The wrong sort of people...
It's just a bit silly and yawn worthy. like your suggestions that Truss was responsible for the Queen's death which simply failed to make it either as a serious allegation or a joke. Sure, the allegations have been made, largely by the utterly clueless. I have made two fuck me the pound is about to tank transactions in the past fortnight, and both have made me or rather caused me not to lose substantial sums. I am not a hedge fund and not a mate of Kwasi's.
Simon Schama @simon_schama Truss' Oxford tutor commented on her obstinate refusal to concede she might be wrong even when confronted by evidence that she was
Isn't that a trait of many leaders though? May also comes to mind. People are usually looking for strong leaders rather than those that can be persuaded.
Simon Schama @simon_schama Truss' Oxford tutor commented on her obstinate refusal to concede she might be wrong even when confronted by evidence that she was
Presumably she realised that being a Lib Dem was wrong.
Maybe she only obstinate when she's wrong; when she's right, she's happy to change her mind.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Careful, you'll get dragged into a tedious day-long debate with the esteemed Barty about the definition of libel. Master of everything, expert in? No-one quite knows. But he sure will tell you his opinion on it, again and again.
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree module on defamation was a few years ago, I do very clearly remember the detail.
A story that is featuring in multiple major newspapers in various stages - from reports of the private TK dinner with hedgies before the budget to the snippets in the Sunday Times about who was at this dinner and what they were doing, then in the Standard about "getting wind" of the 45p abolition. Then multiple reports of calls for the FCA to investigate this potential insider trading.
My comment is not defamation of anyone. It is comment on a published running multiple-sourced story. Any alleged libel is publication on a matter of public interest. And with respect to BR and now William, then can huff and puff and scweam and scweam until they are sick. Doesn't change anything.
Imagine a BR world. Where reporters can't report what they are told. About private dinners with the Chancellor and hedgies. With hedgies "getting wind" of changes before it was public knowledge. Where we have to accept we are lower than our betters and shouldn't question such things. That we are automatically wrong because we are stupid. The wrong sort of people...
It's just a bit silly and yawn worthy. like your suggestions that Truss was responsible for the Queen's death which simply failed to make it either as a serious allegation or a joke. Sure, the allegations have been made, largely by the utterly clueless. I have made two fuck me the pound is about to tank transactions in the past fortnight, and both have made me or rather caused me not to lose substantial sums. I am not a hedge fund and not a mate of Kwasi's.
I'm happy to wear "just a bit silly and yawn worthy" - we don't all agree with each other or entertain each other. In the long run I think my "killed the Queen" gag will be shown to have stuck - have seen multiple comments elsewhere describing her first few weeks including that unhappy meeting at Balmoral.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Careful, you'll get dragged into a tedious day-long debate with the esteemed Barty about the definition of libel. Master of everything, expert in? No-one quite knows. But he sure will tell you his opinion on it, again and again.
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree module on defamation was a few years ago, I do very clearly remember the detail.
A story that is featuring in multiple major newspapers in various stages - from reports of the private TK dinner with hedgies before the budget to the snippets in the Sunday Times about who was at this dinner and what they were doing, then in the Standard about "getting wind" of the 45p abolition. Then multiple reports of calls for the FCA to investigate this potential insider trading.
My comment is not defamation of anyone. It is comment on a published running multiple-sourced story. Any alleged libel is publication on a matter of public interest. And with respect to BR and now William, then can huff and puff and scweam and scweam until they are sick. Doesn't change anything.
Imagine a BR world. Where reporters can't report what they are told. About private dinners with the Chancellor and hedgies. With hedgies "getting wind" of changes before it was public knowledge. Where we have to accept we are lower than our betters and shouldn't question such things. That we are automatically wrong because we are stupid. The wrong sort of people...
It's just a bit silly and yawn worthy. like your suggestions that Truss was responsible for the Queen's death which simply failed to make it either as a serious allegation or a joke. Sure, the allegations have been made, largely by the utterly clueless. I have made two fuck me the pound is about to tank transactions in the past fortnight, and both have made me or rather caused me not to lose substantial sums. I am not a hedge fund and not a mate of Kwasi's.
I'm happy to wear "just a bit silly and yawn worthy" - we don't all agree with each other or entertain each other. In the long run I think my "killed the Queen" gag will be shown to have stuck - have seen multiple comments elsewhere describing her first few weeks including that unhappy meeting at Balmoral.
If you think that makes it as a "gag" open mike nights are probably not for you.
A while ago @TSE said he would post a thread header on his ideas on education funding, which looked rather interesting. Also @MarqueeMark said he would post a thread header on tidal power.
I for one would rather like reading both and it might also stop @squareroot2 complaining, which would be a bonus.
I appreciate that events have got in the way, but is there any chance you guys could do these please? I don't know about others but I am really keen to see what you have to say.
The pound has bounced strongly from its low point during hours of low liquidity in Asia trading hours on Monday morning. That's with the chancellor saying there are more tax cuts to come, and the BoE saying last night they won't even bother meeting again until November ("Go F yourself Market warship!").
No doubt we've still got weeks ahead of shrill screeching about how the "economy has been destroyed". Too many aren't looking with a wide enough lens. Sterling has lost 20% vs the dollar in the last 12mths, the Euro 18%. One of those two currencies crossed the faux important threshold of parity and it wasn't sterling. Meanwhile with the BoE and Fed both starting to unwind QE, both have seen increases in bond yields. But the risk premium between the UK to the US for 10-years is still only 0.26% (4.10% vs 3.84%).
I can't recall an episode of such misplaced hysteria. Not to say the UK economy doesn't have severe structural problems. But talk of "crashing the economy" or even a currency crisis (!) are hard to comprehend other than through partisan politics or the doom loop prism that some people seem so attached to. The BBC even carried a long segment yesterday explaining the Exchange Rate Mechanism. I mean really! The circumstances are now wholly different as anyone with even a fleeting understanding knows.
Yield curve inversion is a normal feature going into a recessionary period, it doesn't mean "the market has lost confidence". The DMO is auctioning £1.2bn of gilts today, before proclaiming that Truss or KK won't last the week, let's wait and see if this auction fails or more likely it has highly comfortable coverage.
Quiet. But like in that Zulu film, you know they are coming back.
Until we surrender to the interest rates as high and quickly as the markets demands, the quiet could be broken any moment.
There is though far too much patriotic reporting angle of what’s going on with international currency’s - a strong dollar whipping EVERYTHING only reported as strong dollar whipping pound. In last few days though the euro yo-yo and evil ruble been stronger than Pound. And the “pound has bounced back strongly” spin you opened with misses this lull is all currencies clawing back against dollar that had strengthened a tad too much in one go.
In short - too early for your men of Harlech post, it’s not over yet.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
I do wonder if some in the Con leadership (Truss, Kwasi, JRM, Sue-Ellen to name four) are actually slightly mad.
Not as mad as the remaining handful of Tory rampers on here:
WE'RE RIGHT, EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG
What's wrong with that?
If you can keep your heads, while those around you are losing theirs ...
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Clear shift to the anti immigrant right from the CDU since Merkel
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Clear shift to the anti immigrant right from the CDU since Merkel
Ukraine refugees are not immigrants are they?
Is this built on a “bit of history” between German and Ukrainian peoples?
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
This is what is wrong with that silly saying about not attributing to malice what is explained by incompetence, and is also relevant to discussion upthread about calling Truss n K mad and stupid. You don't get to and make it through Ox n Cam by being stupid. It is more likely that they know and intend the consequences of their actions.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
They seem desperate to see a sub-20% poll rating don't they.
Edit: I see Hodges is tweeting same thing about big spending cuts coming to assure the markets on debt burden.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Morning all. Has Kwazi announced baronetcies for bankers yet? Rewards for the rich? These aren't sensible people. Bridgen 'expects announcements of spending cuts'. We are going to take in less tax from the rich so we dont have to bother fixing your broken hip any more. Get to fuck. It doesnt have a moral, an economic, a political, even an idealogical basis. Its just twattery. Its a load of stuff they found in a box marked 'things done in the past' and assumed they are all from the same kit Arse. Biscuits.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Yes, an 'urgent spending review' where the state gets slashed to pieces is straight out of the 'neoliberal shock therapy' playbook that they are obviously following. And once this happens, the hope is undoubtedly that confidence will somehow return to the markets.
Not suggesting that Tooze has been reading my comments on PB, but I have suggested that this is what will happen a few times.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Clear shift to the anti immigrant right from the CDU since Merkel
Ukraine refugees are not immigrants are they?
Is this built on a “bit of history” between German and Ukrainian peoples?
Refugees are immigrants, just on humanitarian not economic grounds
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
They have stated that spending will be kept within the 2021 spending review decisions - upto the year 2024/25. This was on a basis on a maximum inflation of 4%.
High inflation, which the government is creating, is reducing the real spending limits on government departments.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
Indeed, its amusing that people are responding to an economic statement designed to encourage growth by suggesting that a small fall in Sterling is a problem.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...
More royalist than the king as usual Barty, I don't see any mainstream tories going down the crashing the currency is good route.
Imports being expensive means stuff is more expensive. All stuff, for everyone. Have a look around at your car, furniture, electrical goods, the clothes you are wearing and the contents of your fridge and tell me how much was made in the UK.
Exports being competitive is largely baloney. Manufacturing = doing things to imprted materials with the help of imported energy. Your model is not just o level economics, it is 50 years ago o level economics.
"A small fall in sterling" isn't what's going to slam growth; the rather large increase in borrowing costs which accompanied it...
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I think it's not so much the specifics - it's a gamble but there's political sense in creating a 'small state de-reg' v 'tax & spend' ideological divide with Labour and on that basis trying to win an election that looks lost if they just chug along - it's more the cackhanded way they're going about it.
I mean, what's with the mad rush? Truss and KK arrive, get the Queen buried and then, whoosh, they're up and off, announcing all of this, no attempt whatsoever to roll the pitch, get buy-in, frame a long-term plan, no forecasts, nothing other than 1980s soundbites to accompany measures that nobody voted for and which involve a radical change of direction and huge sums of money.
So imo the market reaction isn't really against the policy, it's about looking at these people and as the football chant goes concluding that "they don't know what they're doing, they don't know what they're doing." The impression is of a couple of teenage siblings left unexpectedly Home Alone and going a bit nuts with the freedom.
The Conservative Party's underlying problem is the leadership election didn't answer the fundamental question it faces: does it believe in low taxes + low spending or high taxes + high spending? As @George_Osborne says & last few days show you can't have low taxes + high spending https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1574674887817543682
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Germany is sheltering about eight times as many Ukrainians as the UK. Cheap talk from a country whose Home Secretary is telling police to worry less about racism.
So you are happy with what the CDU (a major political party in Germany) are saying about Ukrainians?
Are you happy with the way Germany has supported Ukraine in this war by forcing RAF flights to go around its airspace and providing very little in military aid?
You're clearly happy with moaning about everyone else except you.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
Manufacture a crisis & use it as cover to take a wrecking ball to the state. They know they only have two years, so they could try this. I guess it will depend on how willing the rest of the Tory MPs are to participate in this mutual suicide pact.
(Singapore only works economically because the state controls the housing market; I wonder if the quasi-libertarian Brexiteer faction understand that? Probably not.)
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
@HYUFD I saw a post of yours the other day which I found interesting and I note that when I have asked you a specific question on your views (eg abortion, evolution) you have come back with some surprisingly nuanced and interesting views so I have another one for you.
Someone asked you if you were to vote for another party other than the Tories who would it be. You said the Lib Dems. I wondered why? I think of your views as being fairly authoritarian on many subjects (nothing wrong with that as a political view, although I disagree), yet I would consider the Lib Dems as being the least authoritarian of the parties. Although UKIP and Labour are not your choice, why would the Lib Dems come out above both of them then?
The Conservative Party's underlying problem is the leadership election didn't answer the fundamental question it faces: does it believe in low taxes + low spending or high taxes + high spending? As @George_Osborne says & last few days show you can't have low taxes + high spending https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1574674887817543682
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I think it's not so much the specifics - it's a gamble but there's political sense in creating a 'small state de-reg' v 'tax & spend' ideological divide with Labour and on that basis trying to win an election that looks lost if they just chug along - it's more the cackhanded way they're going about it.
I mean, what's with the mad rush? Truss and KK arrive, get the Queen buried and then, whoosh, they're up and off, announcing all of this, no attempt whatsoever to roll the pitch, get buy-in, frame a long-term plan, no forecasts, nothing other than 1980s soundbites to accompany measures involving a radical change of direction and huge sums of money.
So imo the market reaction isn't really against the policy, it's about looking at these people and as the football chant goes concluding that "they don't know what they're doing, they don't know what they're doing." The impression is of a couple of teenage siblings left unexpectedly Home Alone and going a bit nuts with the freedom.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
If they are going to lose office anyway (and they probably are), then why not do something with the remaining time? Sitting around waiting to lose doesn't strike me as a great idea.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
They won't stick, Labour have already announced higher taxes on the rich and corporations and an end to austerity if they win.
What it would do is kill off classical liberal small state libertarianism in the Tory party for a generation to the benefit of the populist Nationalist right and social conservatives in the party initially and then the One Nation wing again
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
No need to cut public spending, just increase public spending by less than inflation.
When you have economic problems, a bit of inflation helps you rebalance your economy without needing to nominally cut prices, since you can instead implement real terms cuts. Inflation is probably going to fall dramatically next year but a devaluation of Sterling will help prolong that for a bit. 👍
I have been more ready to be sympathetic to Truss than most but this is a cock-up. The government loaded all of the policies they considered to be 'unpopular but growth-oriented' into this mini-budget, so clearly expected it not to poll well; but it seems they did not expect the market reaction, which has far more material consequences for the time being.
One can say to Conservatives today what they might have said to Labour supporters up until the day before yesterday: whether the markets are right or wrong, you are beholden to them. The only way not to listen to them is not to borrow from them.
Likewise it may not seem 'fair' to you for the United States to lecture the wayward province given its own fiscal laxity, but when you have the world's reserve currency and the largest economy on the planet you can do things like that.
A note of caution: Labour supporters of the non-equine variety are right to be 'optimistic but not smug'. Social media, and comment sites like this, mean that we blow up every incident and extrapolate to a general election; I can pinpoint several incidents from the 2010-15 parliament and particularly the 2017-19 parliament when it seemed inevitable that Labour was going to win the next election - and certain Labour-supporting comments from those periods on this site are, in retrospect, quite entertaining (in the way that Tory-supporting comments also were before the 2017 election). Nevertheless, this does feel like more of a sea-change at this point, because it hits people's pockets in a way that phone-hacking and cake don't.
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I think it's not so much the specifics - it's a gamble but there's political sense in creating a 'small state de-reg' v 'tax & spend' ideological divide with Labour and on that basis trying to win an election that looks lost if they just chug along - it's more the cackhanded way they're going about it.
I mean, what's with the mad rush? Truss and KK arrive, get the Queen buried and then, whoosh, they're up and off, announcing all of this, no attempt whatsoever to roll the pitch, get buy-in, frame a long-term plan, no forecasts, nothing other than 1980s soundbites to accompany measures that nobody voted for and which involve a radical change of direction and huge sums of money.
So imo the market reaction isn't really against the policy, it's about looking at these people and as the football chant goes concluding that "they don't know what they're doing, they don't know what they're doing." The impression is of a couple of teenage siblings left unexpectedly Home Alone and going a bit nuts with the freedom.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Its the shitting on the floor because youre being evicted approach. It would ensure they were never electable not just not reelectable
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
If they are going to lose office anyway (and they probably are), then why not do something with the remaining time? Sitting around waiting to lose doesn't strike me as a great idea.
The only right work to do in that case is leave office in a way your party can quickly bounce back, even if you don’t personally gain from that.
The only correct thing Truss and her cabinet should do in this situation, for country and party, in that order, don’t lose too many seats, don’t leave with a reputation for insane economic management, warped priorities, and leaving behind a bankrupt mess.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Its the shitting on the floor because youre being evicted approach. It would ensure they were never electable not just not reelectable
The likely public spending cuts will be politically unworkable because they are cutting spending that they have been responsible for. It won't be seen as a Thatcher moment, just a zombie government running out of ideas and U-turning on things the same politicians dreamt up a few years previously. It does really feel like it could plausibly be an extinction level event for the Tories.
It isn't a bad joke, except that its a touch weird the Shadow Attorney General doesn't seem to know who she is actually shadowing . . . I'm guessing she wrote the joke a while ago and didn't think Michael Ellis would work as well as a punchline!
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
I would be shocked if they did that . Would they really say to the public , we cut the top rate and you’re going to have to pay for that with cuts to services . It would be electoral kryptonite .
Its the shitting on the floor because youre being evicted approach. It would ensure they were never electable not just not reelectable
You mean like Gordon Brown as PM?
Yes. Labour have only become electable because the Tories have decided to out Gordon Gordon
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
Yeugh. Imagine Leonard, Murphy or Sarwar fumbling after the clitoris.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
Manufacture a crisis & use it as cover to take a wrecking ball to the state. They know they only have two years, so they could try this. I guess it will depend on how willing the rest of the Tory MPs are to participate in this mutual suicide pact.
(Singapore only works economically because the state controls the housing market; I wonder if the quasi-libertarian Brexiteer faction understand that? Probably not.)
Singapore also works very well as they dont have a free press nor full & fair elections to worry about.....
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
They have stated that spending will be kept within the 2021 spending review decisions - upto the year 2024/25. This was on a basis on a maximum inflation of 4%.
High inflation, which the government is creating, is reducing the real spending limits on government departments.
Even the NHS is likely to have real terms cuts.
Lilico is tweeting exactly this this morning. Fiscal consolidation.
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I think it's not so much the specifics - it's a gamble but there's political sense in creating a 'small state de-reg' v 'tax & spend' ideological divide with Labour and on that basis trying to win an election that looks lost if they just chug along - it's more the cackhanded way they're going about it.
I mean, what's with the mad rush? Truss and KK arrive, get the Queen buried and then, whoosh, they're up and off, announcing all of this, no attempt whatsoever to roll the pitch, get buy-in, frame a long-term plan, no forecasts, nothing other than 1980s soundbites to accompany measures that nobody voted for and which involve a radical change of direction and huge sums of money.
So imo the market reaction isn't really against the policy, it's about looking at these people and as the football chant goes concluding that "they don't know what they're doing, they don't know what they're doing." The impression is of a couple of teenage siblings left unexpectedly Home Alone and going a bit nuts with the freedom.
Again, that's the malice vs incompetence thing. These are not wacky teenagers, look at the hurdles they have cleared to have the careers they have had and get where they are today. They are much more likely to be serious and deeply malignant adults. Like their predecessor.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
They seem desperate to see a sub-20% poll rating don't they.
Edit: I see Hodges is tweeting same thing about big spending cuts coming to assure the markets on debt burden.
There is a rather basic problem with big spending cuts - they will smash social cohesion. As in a return to riots and starvation. They may look at America's shameful "standards" of employee rights and social security and healthcare and think "we want that" but its been shown repeatedly over a long period that the British people do not.
The democratic deficit will do them. There is no mandate for a "smash the state, create a permanent mass underclass we can exploit". They will be out of office for a generation after this - and I have to assume the Trussites believe that to be ok because they will have remade the state in BR's image and can make a filthy fortune later on the broken backs of millions of their fellow citizens.
Its piracy capitalism. Wait 'til you see the details of these Special Economic Zones. They want to turn some areas into entirely privatised fiefdoms where normal laws do not apply. People looking for some hope and not understanding the concept want these for their area. Once "less pay and less rights and no democratic oversight" presents itself, they will think differently.
Kwarteng's mini budget was a disaster and has thrown the new Truss administration into chaos but it is worth looking at why.
His analysis of the problem was that the UK has been growing too slowly since the GFC, that growth is not keeping up with the ever increasing demands of an ageing population that expects to be protected from the visisitudes of life. I think there is some truth in that, subject to what I say below.
He therefore wanted to go for growth. His ways of doing this were eccentric. He wanted to cut taxes because that is what Truss had promised. He wanted to expressly reverse some of Sunak's policies, eg NI and CT increases, and he wanted to make a bit of a splash.
What was missing were the very reasons that Osborne and Sunak and even that bean counter Hammond had been so cautious. The GFC seriously weakened this country and the way the economy was supported through Covid weakened it yet further. We are right on the 100% GDP debt ratio and heading over.
We have a real problem with an excessively low savings rate which has suffered from artificially low interest rates since 2008 which have driven such savings as we have to largely uproductive assets, such as houses, instead of cash, the return on which has been severely negative. This lack of savings has driven consumption which in turn has driven a perpetual trade deficit. Our ecomomy was producing pretty much full employment but far too many of those jobs were poor offering unstable employment, minimum wage and focused on servicing the excess consumption.
Tax cuts really were not the answer to this problem. What we need are more savings, more investment, less consumption and better productivity. Truss was right that our policy, along with most of the western world, of severely negative interest rates was having distorting and harmful effects. We need higher interest rates and we need to rebalance our economy. But she, along with her Chancellor, failed to appreciate that we needed to move gradually given the weakness of the patient who has been dependent on negative interest rates for far too long. A rich country, like Germany, could afford to take the risks Kwarteng wanted to take because they have a lot of accumulated capital to cover it. We had spent ours on a consumption driven economy buying far more from abroad than we were able to sell.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
If they are going to lose office anyway (and they probably are), then why not do something with the remaining time? Sitting around waiting to lose doesn't strike me as a great idea.
The only right work to do in that case is leave office in a way your party can quickly bounce back, even if you don’t personally gain from that.
The only correct thing Truss and her cabinet should do in this situation, for country and party, in that order, don’t lose too many seats, don’t leave with a reputation for insane economic management, warped priorities, and leaving behind a bankrupt mess.
It seems that it is too late even for that. Any Tory members on here wishing that Rishi had won?
It isn't a bad joke, except that its a touch weird the Shadow Attorney General doesn't seem to know who she is actually shadowing . . . I'm guessing she wrote the joke a while ago and didn't think Michael Ellis would work as well as a punchline!
Good point. Not being a party hack, I lazily assumed ET had become Shadow HS.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Germany is sheltering about eight times as many Ukrainians as the UK. Cheap talk from a country whose Home Secretary is telling police to worry less about racism.
So you are happy with what the CDU (a major political party in Germany) are saying about Ukrainians?
Are you happy with the way Germany has supported Ukraine in this war by forcing RAF flights to go around its airspace and providing very little in military aid?
There is a big difference between criticising a nation for stuff and accusing its population of barely concealed fascism ('it is in their nature'), particularly when there is not one iota of evidence. One has to ask: How is it in their nature? Do you think fascism genetic?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
Indeed, its amusing that people are responding to an economic statement designed to encourage growth by suggesting that a small fall in Sterling is a problem.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...
More royalist than the king as usual Barty, I don't see any mainstream tories going down the crashing the currency is good route.
Imports being expensive means stuff is more expensive. All stuff, for everyone. Have a look around at your car, furniture, electrical goods, the clothes you are wearing and the contents of your fridge and tell me how much was made in the UK.
Exports being competitive is largely baloney. Manufacturing = doing things to imprted materials with the help of imported energy. Your model is not just o level economics, it is 50 years ago o level economics.
"A small fall in sterling" isn't what's going to slam growth; the rather large increase in borrowing costs which accompanied it...
AS the Euro, Dollar and Pound approach parity should we merge them all?
As an aside, I have been waiting for a couple of Certificates of Residence from HMRC so I can avoid foreign tax on some flintwork earnings
These used to take quite a while to be processed - 3 months on average. I have now been waiting 8 months. It is indescribably slow
Has anyone else experienced this? How much is the country losing by the slowing machinery of government and civil service, the law and the NHS?
Is it covid? Is it WFH? What the fuck is it?
Its WFH, the change in working practices cause by WFH is incredible. Try dealing with a Housing Association where everyone works from home, you basically cannot speak to anyone and all emails are ignored
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
They won't stick, Labour have already announced higher taxes on the rich and corporations and an end to austerity if they win.
What it would do is kill off classical liberal small state libertarianism in the Tory party for a generation to the benefit of the populist Nationalist right and social conservatives in the party initially and then the One Nation wing again
Never say never. If the scale of the change is big enough to make for a vertical wall to climb then it could stick. Lets assume that "to calm the markets" they have taken an axe to worker rights, to pay, to social security, to the support web of public services. This will prompt a further run on British assets and the currency because its seen by the majority of western economies as mad.
Lets further assume Starmer becomes PM in late 24. He inherits a state where we have mass need for huge spending but massive debts, an economy that has shrunk, and the inability to copy Sunak and just print money cos its an emergency. The remake of Britain to Singapore sticks simply because reversal is so difficult.
As an aside, I have been waiting for a couple of Certificates of Residence from HMRC so I can avoid foreign tax on some flintwork earnings
These used to take quite a while to be processed - 3 months on average. I have now been waiting 8 months. It is indescribably slow
Has anyone else experienced this? How much is the country losing by the slowing machinery of government and civil service, the law and the NHS?
Is it covid? Is it WFH? What the fuck is it?
Its WFH, the change in working practices cause by WFH is incredible. Try dealing with a Housing Association where everyone works from home, you basically cannot speak to anyone and all emails are ignored
Yes that’s my guess. WFH
It’s self harming bollocks and it will fuck productivity in western economies (not just the UK) in the medium term
1. Transcribe your online lecture with OpenAI whisper 2. Summarize your transcription with GPT-3 in simple terms 3. Ask GPT-3 follow up questions to improve your understanding 4. Have GPT-3 generate homework questions to test and evaluate your understanding of the topic at hand
As an aside, I have been waiting for a couple of Certificates of Residence from HMRC so I can avoid foreign tax on some flintwork earnings
These used to take quite a while to be processed - 3 months on average. I have now been waiting 8 months. It is indescribably slow
Has anyone else experienced this? How much is the country losing by the slowing machinery of government and civil service, the law and the NHS?
Is it covid? Is it WFH? What the fuck is it?
Its WFH, the change in working practices cause by WFH is incredible. Try dealing with a Housing Association where everyone works from home, you basically cannot speak to anyone and all emails are ignored
That's just crap systems.
Teams / Zoom easily allows you to create an IP based phone system that can be used anywhere.
Plenty of software exists to manage task allocation and customer service reporting.
Kwarteng's mini budget was a disaster and has thrown the new Truss administration into chaos but it is worth looking at why.
His analysis of the problem was that the UK has been growing too slowly since the GFC, that growth is not keeping up with the ever increasing demands of an ageing population that expects to be protected from the visisitudes of life. I think there is some truth in that, subject to what I say below.
He therefore wanted to go for growth. His ways of doing this were eccentric. He wanted to cut taxes because that is what Truss had promised. He wanted to expressly reverse some of Sunak's policies, eg NI and CT increases, and he wanted to make a bit of a splash.
What was missing were the very reasons that Osborne and Sunak and even that bean counter Hammond had been so cautious. The GFC seriously weakened this country and the way the economy was supported through Covid weakened it yet further. We are right on the 100% GDP debt ratio and heading over.
We have a real problem with an excessively low savings rate which has suffered from artificially low interest rates since 2008 which have driven such savings as we have to largely uproductive assets, such as houses, instead of cash, the return on which has been severely negative. This lack of savings has driven consumption which in turn has driven a perpetual trade deficit. Our ecomomy was producing pretty much full employment but far too many of those jobs were poor offering unstable employment, minimum wage and focused on servicing the excess consumption.
Tax cuts really were not the answer to this problem. What we need are more savings, more investment, less consumption and better productivity. Truss was right that our policy, along with most of the western world, of severely negative interest rates was having distorting and harmful effects. We need higher interest rates and we need to rebalance our economy. But she, along with her Chancellor, failed to appreciate that we needed to move gradually given the weakness of the patient who has been dependent on negative interest rates for far too long. A rich country, like Germany, could afford to take the risks Kwarteng wanted to take because they have a lot of accumulated capital to cover it. We had spent ours on a consumption driven economy buying far more from abroad than we were able to sell.
If the Bank of England were doing its job then a return to positive interest rates along with tax cuts to support people as policy could work.
The US deficit and debt utterly dwarves what we are doing, but the Federal Reserve are being far more aggressive than the BoE are.
A monetary tightening alongside a fiscal loosening via taxation to support people through the adjustment could work, but instead we are getting the fiscal side but on the monetary side it is being [relative to the Fed] loosened there too.
Not a bad article from Adam Tooze here. He thinks Kwarteng and Truss may have anticipated the "Italy and Greece" scenario, and the next stage is massive spending cuts, on a scale far higher than Cameron's.
Its definitely plausible. A scenario where they assume they have a finite period of time in office, and head sprinting out the gate to reshape the country so heavily that the changes become irreversible.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
If they are going to lose office anyway (and they probably are), then why not do something with the remaining time? Sitting around waiting to lose doesn't strike me as a great idea.
Sitting around doing nothing and waiting to lose office is pretty much what Gordon Brown did for a couple of years.
A wasted opportunity to enact some Socialism before the two Bullingdon lads took over.
Comments
A story that is featuring in multiple major newspapers in various stages - from reports of the private TK dinner with hedgies before the budget to the snippets in the Sunday Times about who was at this dinner and what they were doing, then in the Standard about "getting wind" of the 45p abolition. Then multiple reports of calls for the FCA to investigate this potential insider trading.
My comment is not defamation of anyone. It is comment on a published running multiple-sourced story. Any alleged libel is publication on a matter of public interest. And with respect to BR and now William, then can huff and puff and scweam and scweam until they are sick. Doesn't change anything.
Imagine a BR world. Where reporters can't report what they are told. About private dinners with the Chancellor and hedgies. With hedgies "getting wind" of changes before it was public knowledge. Where we have to accept we are lower than our betters and shouldn't question such things. That we are automatically wrong because we are stupid. The wrong sort of people...
That doesn't sound like manafactured hysteria to me.
Some are bonkers - Desmond Swayne. Richard Burgon.
Jackpot is when they are thick and bonkers. And get promoted to cabinet - Nadine Dorries.
This lady had to be helped out when she got lost in her own launch event. When she finished reading the auto cue KK had written for her, she didn’t have a scooby what to do next, she didn’t even wait for applause or shake any hands (there’s a theme developing here) she just legged it. Into a cul de sac.
Someone needs to mash up Truss and Kwarteng as Pinky and the Brain.
Imports being expensive means stuff is more expensive. All stuff, for everyone. Have a look around at your car, furniture, electrical goods, the clothes you are wearing and the contents of your fridge and tell me how much was made in the UK.
Exports being competitive is largely baloney. Manufacturing = doing things to imprted materials with the help of imported energy. Your model is not just o level economics, it is 50 years ago o level economics.
My questions still stands however.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1094629/DUKES_2022.pdf
Politics also attracts smart people who are made dumb by ideology and belief, and they can ascend to high office in the right circumstances. That may well be something we are seeing now.
But wait, I forgot, to you the services sector in this country extends to your hairdresser and your butler.
@simon_schama
Truss' Oxford tutor commented on her obstinate refusal to concede she might be wrong even when confronted by evidence that she was
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
No?
Best to let it drop luv. It "just reflects poorly" on you.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/kwasi-kwarteng-cut-taxes-austerity
Multiple amazing species making a comeback across Europe, from bison to bears
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/27/wolves-and-brown-bears-among-wildlife-make-exciting-comeback-in-europe-aoe
Why can’t we have lynxes and wolves in the UK?
We can. Bring them back
I for one would rather like reading both and it might also stop @squareroot2 complaining, which would be a bonus.
I appreciate that events have got in the way, but is there any chance you guys could do these please? I don't know about others but I am really keen to see what you have to say.
Until we surrender to the interest rates as high and quickly as the markets demands, the quiet could be broken any moment.
There is though far too much patriotic reporting angle of what’s going on with international currency’s - a strong dollar whipping EVERYTHING only reported as strong dollar whipping pound. In last few days though the euro yo-yo and evil ruble been stronger than Pound. And the “pound has bounced back strongly” spin you opened with misses this lull is all currencies clawing back against dollar that had strengthened a tad too much in one go.
In short - too early for your men of Harlech post, it’s not over yet.
Its very clear that the Singapore-on-Thames faction of Brexiteers have taken over, and they want to get on with the reshape of the fabric of the state. If it makes them lose office afterwards but the changes stick, they will probably see that as a price worth paying.
......You can't wash your face in a buffalo
Is this built on a “bit of history” between German and Ukrainian peoples?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast
This is what is wrong with that silly saying about not attributing to malice what is explained by incompetence, and is also relevant to discussion upthread about calling Truss n K mad and stupid. You don't get to and make it through Ox n Cam by being stupid. It is more likely that they know and intend the consequences of their actions.
I can say with high certainty that Drobysheve and Novoselivka are in AFU 🇺🇦 hands. Multiple (both RU and UA) sources confirm this.
Also there are reports of street fighting in Zeleny Klin district in Lyman. AFU is pressuring from both the west and south.
We are monitoring!
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1574375193459527686
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1574690881843650561?s=20&t=iqYfi8M7eC9t1Nej7aXdkw
Edit: I see Hodges is tweeting same thing about big spending cuts coming to assure the markets on debt burden.
These aren't sensible people. Bridgen 'expects announcements of spending cuts'. We are going to take in less tax from the rich so we dont have to bother fixing your broken hip any more. Get to fuck.
It doesnt have a moral, an economic, a political, even an idealogical basis. Its just twattery. Its a load of stuff they found in a box marked 'things done in the past' and assumed they are all from the same kit
Arse. Biscuits.
Not suggesting that Tooze has been reading my comments on PB, but I have suggested that this is what will happen a few times.
They have stated that spending will be kept within the 2021 spending review decisions - upto the year 2024/25. This was on a basis on a maximum inflation of 4%.
High inflation, which the government is creating, is reducing the real spending limits on government departments.
Even the NHS is likely to have real terms cuts.
I might need to re-assess that idea.
I mean, what's with the mad rush? Truss and KK arrive, get the Queen buried and then, whoosh, they're up and off, announcing all of this, no attempt whatsoever to roll the pitch, get buy-in, frame a long-term plan, no forecasts, nothing other than 1980s soundbites to accompany measures that nobody voted for and which involve a radical change of direction and huge sums of money.
So imo the market reaction isn't really against the policy, it's about looking at these people and as the football chant goes concluding that "they don't know what they're doing, they don't know what they're doing." The impression is of a couple of teenage siblings left unexpectedly Home Alone and going a bit nuts with the freedom.
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1574674887817543682
(Singapore only works economically because the state controls the housing market; I wonder if the quasi-libertarian Brexiteer faction understand that? Probably not.)
It is going to make the poll tax riots look like a vicars tea party.
Someone asked you if you were to vote for another party other than the Tories who would it be. You said the Lib Dems. I wondered why? I think of your views as being fairly authoritarian on many subjects (nothing wrong with that as a political view, although I disagree), yet I would consider the Lib Dems as being the least authoritarian of the parties. Although UKIP and Labour are not your choice, why would the Lib Dems come out above both of them then?
What it would do is kill off classical liberal small state libertarianism in the Tory party for a generation to the benefit of the populist Nationalist right and social conservatives in the party initially and then the One Nation wing again
When you have economic problems, a bit of inflation helps you rebalance your economy without needing to nominally cut prices, since you can instead implement real terms cuts. Inflation is probably going to fall dramatically next year but a devaluation of Sterling will help prolong that for a bit. 👍
One can say to Conservatives today what they might have said to Labour supporters up until the day before yesterday: whether the markets are right or wrong, you are beholden to them. The only way not to listen to them is not to borrow from them.
Likewise it may not seem 'fair' to you for the United States to lecture the wayward province given its own fiscal laxity, but when you have the world's reserve currency and the largest economy on the planet you can do things like that.
A note of caution: Labour supporters of the non-equine variety are right to be 'optimistic but not smug'. Social media, and comment sites like this, mean that we blow up every incident and extrapolate to a general election; I can pinpoint several incidents from the 2010-15 parliament and particularly the 2017-19 parliament when it seemed inevitable that Labour was going to win the next election - and certain Labour-supporting comments from those periods on this site are, in retrospect, quite entertaining (in the way that Tory-supporting comments also were before the 2017 election). Nevertheless, this does feel like more of a sea-change at this point, because it hits people's pockets in a way that phone-hacking and cake don't.
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Stokes is the man
The only correct thing Truss and her cabinet should do in this situation, for country and party, in that order, don’t lose too many seats, don’t leave with a reputation for insane economic management, warped priorities, and leaving behind a bankrupt mess.
Cut Employers NI, or extent capital allowances, or similar business bungs. Get people investing in businesses not a tax cut for high earners.
The democratic deficit will do them. There is no mandate for a "smash the state, create a permanent mass underclass we can exploit". They will be out of office for a generation after this - and I have to assume the Trussites believe that to be ok because they will have remade the state in BR's image and can make a filthy fortune later on the broken backs of millions of their fellow citizens.
Its piracy capitalism. Wait 'til you see the details of these Special Economic Zones. They want to turn some areas into entirely privatised fiefdoms where normal laws do not apply. People looking for some hope and not understanding the concept want these for their area. Once "less pay and less rights and no democratic oversight" presents itself, they will think differently.
His analysis of the problem was that the UK has been growing too slowly since the GFC, that growth is not keeping up with the ever increasing demands of an ageing population that expects to be protected from the visisitudes of life. I think there is some truth in that, subject to what I say below.
He therefore wanted to go for growth. His ways of doing this were eccentric. He wanted to cut taxes because that is what Truss had promised. He wanted to expressly reverse some of Sunak's policies, eg NI and CT increases, and he wanted to make a bit of a splash.
What was missing were the very reasons that Osborne and Sunak and even that bean counter Hammond had been so cautious. The GFC seriously weakened this country and the way the economy was supported through Covid weakened it yet further. We are right on the 100% GDP debt ratio and heading over.
We have a real problem with an excessively low savings rate which has suffered from artificially low interest rates since 2008 which have driven such savings as we have to largely uproductive assets, such as houses, instead of cash, the return on which has been severely negative. This lack of savings has driven consumption which in turn has driven a perpetual trade deficit. Our ecomomy was producing pretty much full employment but far too many of those jobs were poor offering unstable employment, minimum wage and focused on servicing the excess consumption.
Tax cuts really were not the answer to this problem. What we need are more savings, more investment, less consumption and better productivity. Truss was right that our policy, along with most of the western world, of severely negative interest rates was having distorting and harmful effects. We need higher interest rates and we need to rebalance our economy. But she, along with her Chancellor, failed to appreciate that we needed to move gradually given the weakness of the patient who has been dependent on negative interest rates for far too long. A rich country, like Germany, could afford to take the risks Kwarteng wanted to take because they have a lot of accumulated capital to cover it. We had spent ours on a consumption driven economy buying far more from abroad than we were able to sell.
Any Tory members on here wishing that Rishi had won?
These used to take quite a while to be processed - 3 months on average. I have now been waiting 8 months. It is indescribably slow
Has anyone else experienced this? How much is the country losing by the slowing machinery of government and civil service, the law and the NHS?
Is it covid? Is it WFH? What the fuck is it?
Try dealing with a Housing Association where everyone works from home, you basically cannot speak to anyone and all emails are ignored
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf
Lets further assume Starmer becomes PM in late 24. He inherits a state where we have mass need for huge spending but massive debts, an economy that has shrunk, and the inability to copy Sunak and just print money cos its an emergency. The remake of Britain to Singapore sticks simply because reversal is so difficult.
It’s self harming bollocks and it will fuck productivity in western economies (not just the UK) in the medium term
2. Summarize your transcription with GPT-3 in simple terms
3. Ask GPT-3 follow up questions to improve your understanding
4. Have GPT-3 generate homework questions to test and evaluate your understanding of the topic at hand
https://twitter.com/bakztfuture/status/1574567835850113024?s=20&t=8ITCvnakxreJK4r355wFdA
5....... Get GPT-3 to answer the questions for you....Stable Diffusion to draw your diagrams.
University course, completed it mate.
Tax wealth, not income.
Teams / Zoom easily allows you to create an IP based phone system that can be used anywhere.
Plenty of software exists to manage task allocation and customer service reporting.
The US deficit and debt utterly dwarves what we are doing, but the Federal Reserve are being far more aggressive than the BoE are.
A monetary tightening alongside a fiscal loosening via taxation to support people through the adjustment could work, but instead we are getting the fiscal side but on the monetary side it is being [relative to the Fed] loosened there too.
A wasted opportunity to enact some Socialism before the two Bullingdon lads took over.