After 70 years of the cypher ‘EIIR’ for Queen Elizabeth II… King Charles’ new cypher ‘CIIIR’ has just been released. It’s what will appear on new post boxes, government buildings and state documents. The change will be ‘gradual’ says the Palace. https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1574507301079244808/photo/1
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
We should commend that PBer who was roundly mocked for saying Truss would be ousted by conference 2023.
He is such a visionary.
You think she can last that long?
It would be better for the country (if not for Labour) if she didn’t. I’m not sure our economy ca handle much more of these clowns.
Bring in a cool headed manager like Gromit or Dishy, the Tories might still be largest party - the ludicrous new boundaries give them a massive advantage.
This story is a complete insignificance compared to the Federal Reserve, a body that hasn't even been elected to rule the US, let alone the UK, telling the UK Chancellor to change his policy, in public. It is an international outrage.
I think you need to understand the nature of power, who has it and who doesn't.
Then you can think about how we lost ours (clue: which party has been in power for a fair while).
I think I understand it quite well - and it's notable that the Fed is having to make public interventions of this type. Previously, a word in the right ear would have been sufficient to prevent the budget even happening. That speaks to waning US influence over our domestic politics, which is extremely heartening.
Just seen Rachel Reeves pledge to double medical school places. I had missed that before.
I don't think we have that capacity, but even if we did, it would be better to address the problem of retention and to keep the ones already trained. Ditto teachers etc.
Well quite. I don’t she understands clinical training and the need for placements. She also said she would double district nurses every year, which I took as an exponential increase, but probably was meant as a one off…
But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)
Hang on - if this was Thursday or Friday it would be a conference poll.
This was run over the weekend before conferences began - it's really just a normal poll - albeit the one where Truss should be at least reducing the Tory leader following a successful and popular budget announcement
Oops...
Indeed showing the Truss bounce...
Anabob is correct, there is a such a thing as conference bounce.
A Truss uptick really did happen, it was very real, as Mike explained a few don’t knows coming home and Tory’s went up in most polls, it appears shortlived, and Liz seemed to excite Labour to get firmer at same time.
However for my taste Yougov too volatile, 27th July they had 1% Lab lead.
Just seen Rachel Reeves pledge to double medical school places. I had missed that before.
I don't think we have that capacity, but even if we did, it would be better to address the problem of retention and to keep the ones already trained. Ditto teachers etc.
Well quite. I don’t she understands clinical training and the need for placements. She also said she would double district nurses every year, which I took as an exponential increase, but probably was meant as a one off…
It will be a promise she’s made to Streeting, who has been obsessed with nurse training for some time. Whether as a relative newbie he yet understands all the detail, I do not know.
Truss on 28%, an even lower voteshare for the Tories than Major got in 1997 or even Wellington got in 1832.
However I can't see her going, the Tories removed Boris and now have made their bed and have to lie in it and just try and minimise the damage at the next election and rebuild in opposition
In all fairness to you, you have been consistently of this view and have not become a Truss cheerleader as many said you would.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
"PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government."
Difficult to see how as Starmer has said it will not be in the manifesto.
Let me guess, they are going to borrow to cut the debt! Brilliant!!!!
Frozen public spending budgets and 10% inflation will settle the debt.
Won't do much for the grey-haired client vote, but would be the IMF approach.
Personally, I would be increasing taxes as well as freezing budgets. Corporation Tax in the UK is lower than the European average by about 3% so up it 2% with a 2% discount available for long term infrastructure and investment projects.
Put the 40% rate up 2% as well and a windfall tax in excess utility profits.
Nasty, but desperate times require desperate measures.
Oh - and that cap on Banker's bonuses should go back on because that lot are the gods of short-termism and dodgy deals.
After 70 years of the cypher ‘EIIR’ for Queen Elizabeth II… King Charles’ new cypher ‘CIIIR’ has just been released. It’s what will appear on new post boxes, government buildings and state documents. The change will be ‘gradual’ says the Palace. https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1574507301079244808/photo/1
The Jacobites will start blowing up the new postboxes.
After 70 years of the cypher ‘EIIR’ for Queen Elizabeth II… King Charles’ new cypher ‘CIIIR’ has just been released. It’s what will appear on new post boxes, government buildings and state documents. The change will be ‘gradual’ says the Palace. https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1574507301079244808/photo/1
But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)
Hang on - if this was Thursday or Friday it would be a conference poll.
This was run over the weekend before conferences began - it's really just a normal poll - albeit the one where Truss should be at least reducing the Tory leader following a successful and popular budget announcement
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Once nuclear war has been declared, the Martians have landed, Trump has burnt down the Whote House, and a new pandemic has gone global, Truss could get a small and brief, rally-round-the-flag honeymoon and uptick, I agree.
Just seen Rachel Reeves pledge to double medical school places. I had missed that before.
I don't think we have that capacity, but even if we did, it would be better to address the problem of retention and to keep the ones already trained. Ditto teachers etc.
Well quite. I don’t she understands clinical training and the need for placements. She also said she would double district nurses every year, which I took as an exponential increase, but probably was meant as a one off…
Nor the need for experienced trainers like me to do less clinical work to free up time to teach.
Truss on 28%, an even lower voteshare for the Tories than Major got in 1997 or even Wellington got in 1832.
However I can't see her going, the Tories removed Boris and now have made their bed and have to lie in it and just try and minimise the damage at the next election and rebuild in opposition
Having removed one leader, the Tories can't remove another before a general elction. If they do, they demonstrate they they are so split that no leader can command a majority. In that case they would have to resign en masse and let Labour form a government before calling an election, as happened in 1905.
But, on your wider point, there were sources in the papers at the weekend saying that what is different now is that Labour are winning direct switchers from the Tories (rather than grinding out leads via attrition from the minor parties)
Hang on - if this was Thursday or Friday it would be a conference poll.
This was run over the weekend before conferences began - it's really just a normal poll - albeit the one where Truss should be at least reducing the Tory leader following a successful and popular budget announcement
Oops...
Didn’t the Labour conference start on Saturday?
Sunday with the National Anthem and even then the first announcements were today...
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
The problem here, 17 fucking points notwithstanding (!) Is that there appears to be no confidence in them. Things like enterprize zones shouldnt be getting panned in polling and clearly voters do not believe the dash for growth will produce growth. Because theyve concluded the budget wasnt fair, youre not going to convince them it will achieve its aim. And so it just becomes a sop to the rich. Theyre screwed. Nothing can turn this round. All efforts for the tories need to be on being in a position to come back after one term out.
But they need to clean the wound, too. Who will be in Parliament, but untainted by association with the Johnson or Truss administrations, around which a future government in waiting can be built?
Theyve had to clean the wound too often. Maybe they are just past their sell by. Maybe the right needs proper populism not spivs and frauds and etonian c***s
The thing is, wooliedyed, populism always involves spivs and frauds.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Yes, I think he’s already said he won’t implement it and is no fan of it AIUI
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
It will almost certainly be 2025 at this rate. They will hang on like Brown did.
Worth remembering that Friday’s budget gave everyone sweeties. There were no genuinely tough choices in there. The reception to it is absolutely not what either Truss or Kwarteng would have expected. It could just be that they are really, really bad at politics.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Yes, I think he’s already said he won’t implement it and is no fan of it AIUI
FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither the Tories nor Labour will get rid of it.
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
.
Looking back over the 2010-2015 polling is fascinating. Another era. There were times Labour led by up to 15 points and the stories were down at times in the 20s due to UKIP, yet Cameron was still leading Miliband on approval, and satisfaction with the government was relatively high.
I suppose what that points to is a lack of the same entrenched partisanship there is in these post-Brexit days, so more floating voters and greater volatility in VI.
The other big big problem the Tories have is this growth drive.... if we get growth, even supercharged growth, where is that money going? The public don't believe it will reach them. Probably because it won't. Thats where Toryism and populism diverge.
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
In ExpressandMailistan, last week bankers were wealth creating geniuses held back from making Britain great again. By the end of this week bankers will be out of touch London citizens of nowhere metropolitan elites who can't be trusted.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
Worth remembering that Friday’s budget gave everyone sweeties. There were no genuinely tough choices in there. The reception to it is absolutely not what either Truss or Kwarteng would have expected. It could just be that they are really, really bad at politics.
Well not everyone. 1% of people got sweeties everyone else got a few crumbs then got told to shut up and stop moaning.
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not concerned if Starmer does have a working majority because the debt and problems will still be there, and he will face some very difficult decisions on spending and maintaining investments in the public sector
You don't mind Labour governments so long as the country is in a mess?
Worth remembering that Friday’s budget gave everyone sweeties. There were no genuinely tough choices in there. The reception to it is absolutely not what either Truss or Kwarteng would have expected. It could just be that they are really, really bad at politics.
I got one sweetie, that fat kid got 5, and he already had a sack of them.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
The other big big problem the Tories have is this growth drive.... if we get growth, even supercharged growth, where is that money going? The public don't believe it will reach them. Probably because it won't. Thats where Toryism and populism diverge.
Can't even see growth. Never mind where it is going
Worth remembering that Friday’s budget gave everyone sweeties. There were no genuinely tough choices in there. The reception to it is absolutely not what either Truss or Kwarteng would have expected. It could just be that they are really, really bad at politics.
Well not everyone. 1% of people got sweeties everyone else got a few crumbs then got told to shut up and stop moaning.
They also promised they will pee out the sweeties onto us, if we are good little boys and girls.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Carnyx does have a point HY. Do the Tories even exist under PR. Starmer jettisons the left, who didn’t even have enough votes to nominate Corbyn, but Conservative Party splits too, which we know as fact because it’s already happened.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not concerned if Starmer does have a working majority because the debt and problems will still be there, and he will face some very difficult decisions on spending and maintaining investments in the public sector
You don't mind Labour governments so long as the country is in a mess?
No because then his favourite party can get back in again.
Let's face it, he loves Truss when she's doing well.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Yes, I think he’s already said he won’t implement it and is no fan of it AIUI
FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither the Tories nor Labour will get rid of it.
The next election may focus the minds of Labour if the SNP hold the balance of power. FPTP gives them 44 seats to the Lib Dems’ and Greens’ 15, where PR would give them closer to 30 and the Lib Dems and Greens at least 90-100 between them. Annoying to have to do coalitions with those two but less of a constitutional dilemma and much less risk of 2015-style Tory attacks.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not concerned if Starmer does have a working majority because the debt and problems will still be there, and he will face some very difficult decisions on spending and maintaining investments in the public sector
You don't mind Labour governments so long as the country is in a mess?
It is the way it is no matter who wins in 2024
This is not going to be resolved quickly and expect some very difficult decisions on tax and spending
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
Yes, I found no support for the Friday measures among my colleagues, quite a few of whom will benefit from the tax cuts and bonus cap removal. The latter was generally received well but the tax cut not so much and the other measures were seen as what you described - a lack of strategy.
'Time for a change' is the cliched cry of an opposition. But when the government is also using it, the worry of that opposition is lessened - the need for change is already established, and who is better to undertake it?
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
Good to hear and hope you're right. Think you might be. But ... let's ask it ... will they vote Labour next time if it means they pay more tax?
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Carnyx does have a point HY. Do the Tories even exist under PR. Starmer jettisons the left, who didn’t even have enough votes to nominate Corbyn, but Conservative Party splits too, which we know as fact because it’s already happened.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
5 live business recently compared a basket of essential from Morrisons and Lidl and Lidl were 40 % cheaper
Radical thought. The NHS is not as good as people think it is, or should be. There are different models, some close at hand on the continent. They use insurance systems, and the state supports the low paid etc. Seems to work well.
I don’t think the Tories could ever introduce it. But what about Labour? Sav3 the NHS by changing the way it’s paid for?
Letting the biggest ever intervention on behalf of people and businesses and a tax cut for all tax payers just fade into the ether whilst the only topic being talked about is bigger tax cuts for rich pricks which will have minimal effect on growth maybe in 18 months time is beyond inept.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
An analyst on R5L did the maths, tracking a basket of goods and calculated Morrisons were 40% more expensive vs Aldi.
Truss did not win a general election. She was backed by only 14% of Tory MPs in the first round and not by a plurality of them in any round. She is not following the 2019 Tory manifesto. She is mid-teens behind in the polls.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Yes, I think he’s already said he won’t implement it and is no fan of it AIUI
FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither the Tories nor Labour will get rid of it.
Indeed. I remember the AV vote, when lots of Labour grandees emerged to pan the idea.
Worth remembering that Friday’s budget gave everyone sweeties. There were no genuinely tough choices in there. The reception to it is absolutely not what either Truss or Kwarteng would have expected. It could just be that they are really, really bad at politics.
Well not everyone. 1% of people got sweeties everyone else got a few crumbs then got told to shut up and stop moaning.
Yep - they are really bad at politics. They thought the 19p tax rate and NI cut would get bigger coverage than the huge tax cuts for the rich. And somehow they managed to ensure no-one was talking about the energy price cap.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The other big big problem the Tories have is this growth drive.... if we get growth, even supercharged growth, where is that money going? The public don't believe it will reach them. Probably because it won't. Thats where Toryism and populism diverge.
Can't even see growth. Never mind where it is going
No, which makes the whole clusterfuck just a weird, damaging folly, rammed in at the last minute and then 'no comment' to a frightened and confused electorate. I mean who is advising them? Who can possibly have thought this would end well? Its incoherent drivel
The problem here, 17 fucking points notwithstanding (!) Is that there appears to be no confidence in them. Things like enterprize zones shouldnt be getting panned in polling and clearly voters do not believe the dash for growth will produce growth. Because theyve concluded the budget wasnt fair, youre not going to convince them it will achieve its aim. And so it just becomes a sop to the rich. Theyre screwed. Nothing can turn this round. All efforts for the tories need to be on being in a position to come back after one term out.
But they need to clean the wound, too. Who will be in Parliament, but untainted by association with the Johnson or Truss administrations, around which a future government in waiting can be built?
Theyve had to clean the wound too often. Maybe they are just past their sell by. Maybe the right needs proper populism not spivs and frauds and etonian c***s
Still think a new right wing nationalist party may emerge in time...the tories have sucked up a lot of english nationalist type votes that will be looking for a new home
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
5 live business recently compared a basket of essential from Morrisons and Lidl and Lidl were 40 % cheaper
Lidl and Aldi will always be cheaper - the problem for Morrisons is that they are now more expensive than anyone else (with a loyalty scheme almost designed to get you shopping elsewhere)..
I would seriously expect Morrisons to go before Asda but it's highly likely both will go in the next 2 years and I suspect no one in Government is thinking through the consequences of 1 or other disappearing even if it's just for a week or so while someone rescues them...
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The obvious ones for me are Morrisons / Asda and Boots. Who else falls into the same category (I'm asking because I can't think of any which is clearly wrong but my mind is blank)...
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
Comments
King Charles’ new cypher ‘CIIIR’ has just been released.
It’s what will appear on new post boxes, government buildings and state documents.
The change will be ‘gradual’ says the Palace. https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1574507301079244808/photo/1
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
Bring in a cool headed manager like Gromit or Dishy, the Tories might still be largest party - the ludicrous new boundaries give them a massive advantage.
A Truss uptick really did happen, it was very real, as Mike explained a few don’t knows coming home and Tory’s went up in most polls, it appears shortlived, and Liz seemed to excite Labour to get firmer at same time.
However for my taste Yougov too volatile, 27th July they had 1% Lab lead.
Watch this - it's not pretty https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1574509191053582338
There's definitely an element of over-reaction.
Though why the BoE didn't go for 0.75% I have no idea.
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Difficult to see how as Starmer has said it will not be in the manifesto.
Put the 40% rate up 2% as well and a windfall tax in excess utility profits.
Nasty, but desperate times require desperate measures.
Oh - and that cap on Banker's bonuses should go back on because that lot are the gods of short-termism and dodgy deals.
What is he good for?
Absolutely etc.
Didn’t the Labour conference start on Saturday?
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
ONE stop past Barking on the c2c route via Rainham: Barking, Dagenham Dock.
I suppose what that points to is a lack of the same entrenched partisanship there is in these post-Brexit days, so more floating voters and greater volatility in VI.
By the end of this week bankers will be out of touch London citizens of nowhere metropolitan elites who can't be trusted.
Feels like times are changing.
Paul Brand, ITV.
Deadpan.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
Let's face it, he loves Truss when she's doing well.
This is not going to be resolved quickly and expect some very difficult decisions on tax and spending
It reads fine without the Kwar.
I must be missing something obvious.
Soldiers, most likely L/DPR guys, are sitting in the forest on the frontline, complaining about how they were dumped with no food or water, only with assault rifles.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574488787400507416
#NorthKorea has released an official statement claiming that it has never supplied weapons to #Russia and has no such plans.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1572825644551245825
I don’t think the Tories could ever introduce it. But what about Labour? Sav3 the NHS by changing the way it’s paid for?
She was backed by only 14% of Tory MPs in the first round and not by a plurality of them in any round.
She is not following the 2019 Tory manifesto.
She is mid-teens behind in the polls.
That's a very brittle mandate to impose a whip on.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1574515803147337728
Difficult to come back from that.
I mean who is advising them? Who can possibly have thought this would end well? Its incoherent drivel
I would seriously expect Morrisons to go before Asda but it's highly likely both will go in the next 2 years and I suspect no one in Government is thinking through the consequences of 1 or other disappearing even if it's just for a week or so while someone rescues them...
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.