After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
How do they sell that, even if they were willing to take that path?
Sacking the Chancellor would seem a minimum for it to happen.
Ken Clarke got away with a forced U turn on VAT on fuel bills in 1994. But does KK want to U turn, even now?
Why should tax announcements be any different to other policy U turns we have seen over the past few years? Perhaps the stakes are a lot higher but I can foresee a scenario where they have to conclude there is no realistic way of delivering what they have promised. Or they could alternatively be subject to a rebellion in Parliament. Lots of ways for a U-turn to come in to play.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
As you can imagine - this was causing great excitement at Labour conference last night. Shadow cabinet ministers insisting no complacency but clearly think this is a game changer now. Someone who’d been to conferences since early 90s said the last time felt like this was 1996… https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1574497783410835459
Not so sure about this. Starmer had the opportunity to back PR for our elections. Even some of the leading unions were supportive of this change. But no. He timidly backed away from this.
So what is his message in attracting fair-minded people to join his ranks. Only "I am not a Conservative" - and because that is the same message as a lot of other parties, it is at the end of the day, a very weak one - nothing positive about it.
I do not trust Labour. They have made half-promises, but turned their back on progressive policies (such as PR) time after time. Apart from that, they are at the highest levels, as authoritarian as the Tories.
If we want to give power to the people, we have to go with PR and the Lib Dems.
The more likely a Labour majority the less likely there will be a commitment to PR. ‘‘Twas ever thus.
A minority Labour govt or a small majority might be needed with PR as the price for C&S
What’s daunting is how long it might take to reverse the economic damage done in last few days, even if there’s a change of govt. burden of debt + the impression we’ve become a basket case don’t just magically vanish. https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574662216602771457
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
"It’s worse than Black Wednesday. This self-inflicted and without a mandate, whereas at least [Black Wednesday] was perceived as a bid to manage a crisis."
Black Wednesday was very much self-inflicted - the government was determined to get us into a single currency. The government should have pulled out of the ERM the moment the rest of the group refused to help.
But, at least the government eventually saw reason and stopped fighting a losing battle. I'm not sure what would make the current lot change course.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
This was Dan Hodges last night
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible.
I am not sure he is right.
They already laid out their political defence. "We will do unpopular things. This is really unpopular. Must be working..."
The only way it can be reversed is if it is done by someone who isn't Kwasi
Hodges is wrong.
The poll tax was an issue because people were refusing to pay it en masse and the issue couldn't go away.
The mini budget has already happened. There is no lightning rod to rally around, they just need to keep calm and carry on.
If anyone wants to refuse to pay 40% and insist upon paying 45% instead then I'm sure the Treasury will be ok with that!
The men in grey suits don't need to replace Truss if they can force her to sack Kwasi.
If Rishi was chancellor he would effectively be driving policy for the next 2 years
I very much doubt if he would agree to return to the Treasury under Truss. He has too many fundamental points of disagreement with her. Moreover, for that reason she would probably resign rather than appoint him.
Come back to my question earlier
Does she want to be PM, or does she want to do batshit crazy things.
I think she wants to be PM
Cutting taxes from a 74 year high isn't batshit crazy.
The fact some critics act like it is, is a battle that needs to be won.
You’re someone who believes greatly in the wisdom of the markets. Well, the markets say that Kwarteng’s budget was a disaster.
Does Liz want to be PM more than she wants to try out her batshit theories?
I think she does, which means bye bye Kwasi.
Can she bring Rishi back as chancellor?
Good morning
The conservatives need Sunak more than ever as either COE or PM
For the first time I have concluded Truss will not survive 2023
Pah. Will she survive 2022? I have just posted how exquisitely painful next week's Tory conference is going to be. We're going to be able to track the collapse in the pound and our gilt rates by the minute as the lunatics tell the audience of giffers that they are right and the forrin and the experts are wrong.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
Yep: there's a lot of PE-backed firms that could find themselves in real trouble, real quickly.
I’ve seen a couple fall already
What’s interesting is the banks are in no mood to compromise. No chance for the sponsor to put in more equity - they just took the keys on the first default and are selling the businesses without a restructuring
Very near sighted. In the early 90s the largest number of defaults happened when the market was recovering giving banks maximum opportunity to recoup losses.
This was an odd situation - they never even discussed with the PE firm, just took the company at a board meeting. I suspect there is something I don’t know going on.
You would expect Morrisons and Asda to be highly profitable if they defaulted. Probably more so, in fact, given the stupid over-extension of their debt levels.
A bank might even be tempted just to own them for a bit and try to get their money back that way.
If, on the other hand, either did cease trading, the UK supermarket would immediately be a shambles with just two major retailers and a few more medium sized ones dominating it. Sure, you would expect Aldi and Lidl to hoover up more market share, but it would have a nasty distorting effect.
About the only positive would be if these vulture fund owners went bankrupt themselves, but somehow I suspect they would find a way to avoid that.
It would be a debt for equity swap or an equity injection
And debt for equity would probably actually be a good solution for everyone - customers, staff, debt holders and the government - except the current equity holders. Equally, it was obvious at the time that they were being greedy and therefore that's their own fault.
Yes - people forget that a corporate restructuring means you have a bad business. That’s not always the case - sometimes you just have the wrong capital structure
The men in grey suits don't need to replace Truss if they can force her to sack Kwasi.
If Rishi was chancellor he would effectively be driving policy for the next 2 years
I very much doubt if he would agree to return to the Treasury under Truss. He has too many fundamental points of disagreement with her. Moreover, for that reason she would probably resign rather than appoint him.
Come back to my question earlier
Does she want to be PM, or does she want to do batshit crazy things.
I think she wants to be PM
Cutting taxes from a 74 year high isn't batshit crazy.
The fact some critics act like it is, is a battle that needs to be won.
A discussion was held in my office this morning regarding taxes. These are people earning £55K+ plus per year. They all thought taxes should rise, but only for rich people.
The problem with the 45p abolitipn is that it looks manifestly unfair to most people. Which let us not forget, is what helped destroy or weaken the authority of quite a few PMs over the years - Thatcher with the poll tax, Brown with the 10p abolition, to give some examples.
You can mount an argument to cut the basic rate without people getting upset. You can also mount a decent argument to cut the higher rate, on the basis that there are a decent chunk of above-average earners who would be affected, or some people hoping for a pay rise soon that would take them into that bracket who would be encouraged by it.
The issue comes that the supplementary rate (or whatever they call it nowadays) is so far removed from the earnings potential of so much of the country that it really does feel like it only benefits the 1%. The man on the street and even the aspirational professional in the regions, probably doesn’t see much of a route to them ever earning £150k. Maybe that is a bit different in London, but it can surely only be affecting those who work in big legal/financial services or management.
Honestly I think if they’d avoided the 45p slip up they’d be in a much better position with the public now. As it is it could be like the 10p and the poll tax and really serve as a millstone, no matter what they try to do to recover the situation.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
How do they sell that, even if they were willing to take that path?
Sacking the Chancellor would seem a minimum for it to happen.
Ken Clarke got away with a forced U turn on VAT on fuel bills in 1994. But does KK want to U turn, even now?
Why should tax announcements be any different to other policy U turns we have seen over the past few years? Perhaps the stakes are a lot higher but I can foresee a scenario where they have to conclude there is no realistic way of delivering what they have promised. Or they could alternatively be subject to a rebellion in Parliament. Lots of ways for a U-turn to come in to play.
They could back off the 45p abolition - re-labelling it as an aspiration.
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
Question is- why did she get the job?
Was it because Conservative MPs and members bought in to her plans?
Or was it because Rishi had been mean to Boris and Penny was too woke?
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
Principality Building Society boss Julie-Ann Haines told my colleague @seanfarrington “even so far what we have seen pass on in mortgage rates is resulting in an extra £3000-£4000 a year for an average £250k mortgage”… such moves would vastly outweigh a £1.5bn stamp duty cut. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574666097755824128
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury is Chris Philp, who on Friday was Tweeting about the markets’ positive reaction to Kwarteng’s budget speech. That Tweet has now been deleted.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
This was Dan Hodges last night
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible.
I am not sure he is right.
They already laid out their political defence. "We will do unpopular things. This is really unpopular. Must be working..."
The only way it can be reversed is if it is done by someone who isn't Kwasi
Hodges is wrong.
The poll tax was an issue because people were refusing to pay it en masse and the issue couldn't go away.
The mini budget has already happened. There is no lightning rod to rally around, they just need to keep calm and carry on.
If anyone wants to refuse to pay 40% and insist upon paying 45% instead then I'm sure the Treasury will be ok with that!
I am not sure you were alive during the poll tax furore, Bart. I was. The issue was all about a perceived lack of fairness. People absolutely hated it for that reason. It was withdrawn before non-payment became any kind of problem - except in Scotland, where it was imposed first.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
It’s been a brutal lesson for a cocksure chancellor, who spent the weekend flagging more tax cuts: a performance that drew the riposte from Mel Stride, the Tory chairman of the Treasury committee, that Kwarteng should have weighed up the market reaction to his howitzers before “immediately signalling more of the same”. It’s embarrassing, too, for Kwarteng to be forced to rush out an “update” to Friday’s growth plan one working day later. He’s now promising a “medium-term fiscal plan” on November 23 complete with OBR forecasts. Maybe Tom Scholar, the Treasury permanent secretary he sacked, would have helped prevent that. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chaos-at-centre-of-trussonomics-prgtmmlcd
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
After Danish authorities confirmed last night that Nord Stream 2 is leaking gas into the Baltic Sea (Danish waters), Sweden now confirms that Nord Stream 1 is also leaking gas into Swedish waters.
German gov. sources talk about “a targeted attack”.
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
It's the politics Nerys. The politics of envy, and we are an envious peasantry.
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
By my reckoning it's just Barty, William and LuckyGuy still holding the Tory line, with a few more (Sandpit?) keeping counsel and hoping against hope that Truss is somehow going defeat logic with her madness.
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
Somewhere between £3.5bn and £4.5bn, probably more now that the bonus cap has gone.
Again, the crises in the markets aren't because the government is cutting this tax, it's because they went and sold it as a measure that would bring a lot of extra growth and eventually a self funded tax cut. It's a statement that had no credibility and has everyone wondering whether Kwasi has actually got a grip on reality.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women......
Troll. Posts here according to Putin's script. Posts nothing else. You fool no-one.
Tbf that's not correct - Dynamo posts on all kinds of stuff, often interestingly. He's critical of Ukraine, but that's not an illegal view, and opposition to the invasion shouldn't mean we think Ukraine is perfect.
In general I think we should ease up on the witch-finding stuff whenever someone says anything that doesn't match the general view. We don't do it to Leon or MalcolmG or Bart when they rant in their different ways.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
What’s daunting is how long it might take to reverse the economic damage done in last few days, even if there’s a change of govt. burden of debt + the impression we’ve become a basket case don’t just magically vanish. https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574662216602771457
I wonder why they gave Sir Charlie a knighthood....
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
It's the politics Nerys. The politics of envy, and we are an envious peasantry.
You have it spot on - the optics and the credibility of the government for just 2 billion leaves one dumbstruck at the tin ear and stupidity by Kwarteng and Truss
Today, I share the same thoughts as the people of Japan in remembering the remarkable life of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Former Prime Minister Abe's longstanding warm friendship with the United Kingdom remains an enduring legacy in the close friendship between Japan and the United Kingdom today.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
Trouble is, it's against Labour policy and party rules to advocate tactical voting. Despite what Slab sometimes likes to advocate.
This probably justifies another airing of Mr Murray reportedly saying in an interview with the Grauniad in 2017 that *his* local Tories should vote for him to keep the SNP out, and in *other* constituencies Labour voters should vote Tory etc to etc. Whether he, and/or the journo, had been on the electric juice or something, I don't know, but it wouldn't exactly be the fraternal thing to urge, would it?
The interview has proved , erm, difficult to find on the Graun website. But fortunately a record survives elsewhere.
'"JEREMY Corbyn’s first big day of the election campaign was undermined after his only MP in Scotland seemingly told voters to back the Tories. According to The Guardian, Ian Murray has begged Tory voters for support in his marginal Edinburgh South seat in exchange for Labour backing Tory candidates standing against SNP MPs.
Murray supposedly told the paper he supported tactical voting to defeat the SNP, but said that meant Tory and LibDem voters had to switch sides, too, if their primary objective was to block the SNP.
“If people are saying we want to protect the Union, the candidate in the best position is me,” he said of his constituency in the capital where he defeated the SNP’s Neil Hay by 2600 votes in 2015.
He later distanced himself from the paper’s report, saying he was merely “suggesting people vote Labour in both Edinburgh South and across Scotland”.'
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
It's completely fathomable - he looked at 1 part of the story and missed the complete picture....
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
Something that occurred to me yesterday is that this crisis looks a lot like the beginning of A Very British Coup, where the markets react to the new PM's appointment with a run on the pound - because they think his economic policies are utterly crackpot.
I never thought I'd see that play out for an incoming Conservative administration.
It's not a real crisis though. It's just been manufactured by the most imposing moment of madness since Ron Davies went badger watching on Hampstead Heath.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
How do they sell that, even if they were willing to take that path?
Sacking the Chancellor would seem a minimum for it to happen.
Ken Clarke got away with a forced U turn on VAT on fuel bills in 1994. But does KK want to U turn, even now?
Looks like he lost a commons vote and then ditched it. So that is a plausible path. Agree for Sunak to lead a mini rebellion, vote it down and it can be shelved "until the finances allow".
Reversing the 45% tax rate cut might placate some voters but it won't materially change the government borrowing which is spooking the financial markets. So it has to be more or neither.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
Without wishing to sound like Stuart, it is not likely they will win many seats in Scotland at the moment. They would be better off targeting seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands.
A rising tide lifts all ships. If they're looking like getting a majority, they'll make gains in Scotland too.
Labour aren't rising. The Tories are going down the drain.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
Didn't McD say he knew the markets would react badly to him becoming CoE with his plans for debt for investment and he said did not care what they do or something similar?
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
Does Liz want to be PM more than she wants to try out her batshit theories?
I think she does, which means bye bye Kwasi.
Can she bring Rishi back as chancellor?
If Thatcher had reversed on her policies when 364 economists said she should, then where would we be today?
Truss should stick to her guns, but she needs to cut taxes more on lower earners and ensure that tax thresholds rise.
The bond market is in meltdown and you want to double down.
Economists aren't the problem. The problem is the government wants to borrow extra billions and the market doesn't have confidence in Truss/Kwarteng and so will only lend at much higher real rates.
We're like a gambler saying it's not their decision to bet their house on black that is the problem, but it's the fault of the bank refusing to give a mortgage while the wheel is spinning.
Need clarification of that last paragraph analogy pls.
The government placing a massive gamble on unfunded tax cuts with no OBR oversight = putting house on black.
The bond market losing faith in government and refusing to lend what they have asked for = the bank refusing to help finance the house that they just gambled with.
It's probably a bit of a rubbish analogy, but as someone who works in said bond market, unsurprisingly I had a very long day yesterday.
I think there is a need for bond yields and interest rates to return to historic norms, but there does need to be time for individuals, business and government to adapt. Doing that reversion by Christmas rather than 2025 is a problem.
You're arguing for boiling the frog with a relatively long period of rising rates which is surely also 'a problem'. There's no pain free way to do this.
Its a bit like dealing with the house price unaffordability issue. Say that a house price crash is needed, and people respond with 'that's terrible, people will face negative equity', then say that instead a period of high wage-led inflation is needed instead then, where wages outstrip house prices but without negative equity and people say 'that's terrible, inflation is awful'.
There are only terrible solutions. But the problems we have are just as bad if not worse, so we need to face up to some of them. If you have cancer, then you might think chemotherapy is unpleasant but still go through it anyway.
We need to find a way to eliminate our current account deficit, our fiscal deficit, grow the economy and get house prices back to say a 4x income multiple in London and a 3x income multiple in the rest of the country. There is no 'easy' way to do all that.
1. Don’t cut taxes 2. Invest in R&D to boost productivity 3. Build more houses
The government doesn't do most R&D though, firms do. They need a competitive tax environment to encourage that, so the antithesis of your point 1.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
It's not a real crisis though. It's just been manufactured by the most imposing moment of madness since Ron Davies went badger watching on Hampstead Heath.
Yes, it's a totally Kwasi crisis.
Badgers were beside the M4, and it was Clapham Common for walkies surely.
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
The energy stuff was needed and helping ordinary Brits. Absolubtely noone was asking for the 45% cut. It seems to have been at least partly responsible for the signalling to the markets that Kwarteng wasn't serious about balancing the books so the cost (Via Gov't debt) is now A LOT more than £2B.
Does Liz want to be PM more than she wants to try out her batshit theories?
I think she does, which means bye bye Kwasi.
Can she bring Rishi back as chancellor?
If Thatcher had reversed on her policies when 364 economists said she should, then where would we be today?
Truss should stick to her guns, but she needs to cut taxes more on lower earners and ensure that tax thresholds rise.
The bond market is in meltdown and you want to double down.
Economists aren't the problem. The problem is the government wants to borrow extra billions and the market doesn't have confidence in Truss/Kwarteng and so will only lend at much higher real rates.
We're like a gambler saying it's not their decision to bet their house on black that is the problem, but it's the fault of the bank refusing to give a mortgage while the wheel is spinning.
Need clarification of that last paragraph analogy pls.
The government placing a massive gamble on unfunded tax cuts with no OBR oversight = putting house on black.
The bond market losing faith in government and refusing to lend what they have asked for = the bank refusing to help finance the house that they just gambled with.
It's probably a bit of a rubbish analogy, but as someone who works in said bond market, unsurprisingly I had a very long day yesterday.
I think there is a need for bond yields and interest rates to return to historic norms, but there does need to be time for individuals, business and government to adapt. Doing that reversion by Christmas rather than 2025 is a problem.
You're arguing for boiling the frog with a relatively long period of rising rates which is surely also 'a problem'. There's no pain free way to do this.
Its a bit like dealing with the house price unaffordability issue. Say that a house price crash is needed, and people respond with 'that's terrible, people will face negative equity', then say that instead a period of high wage-led inflation is needed instead then, where wages outstrip house prices but without negative equity and people say 'that's terrible, inflation is awful'.
There are only terrible solutions. But the problems we have are just as bad if not worse, so we need to face up to some of them. If you have cancer, then you might think chemotherapy is unpleasant but still go through it anyway.
We need to find a way to eliminate our current account deficit, our fiscal deficit, grow the economy and get house prices back to say a 4x income multiple in London and a 3x income multiple in the rest of the country. There is no 'easy' way to do all that.
1. Don’t cut taxes 2. Invest in R&D to boost productivity 3. Build more houses
The government doesn't do most R&D though, firms do. They need a competitive tax environment to encourage that, so the antithesis of your point 1.
Your point 3 is completely correct of course.
But the tax environment for business isn't changing and we've have the lowest business investment on record for a decade. Whatever it is we're doing isn't working and Liz Truss has just extended that decade of the tax environment not working to get businesses to invest.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
Does Liz want to be PM more than she wants to try out her batshit theories?
I think she does, which means bye bye Kwasi.
Can she bring Rishi back as chancellor?
If Thatcher had reversed on her policies when 364 economists said she should, then where would we be today?
Truss should stick to her guns, but she needs to cut taxes more on lower earners and ensure that tax thresholds rise.
The bond market is in meltdown and you want to double down.
Economists aren't the problem. The problem is the government wants to borrow extra billions and the market doesn't have confidence in Truss/Kwarteng and so will only lend at much higher real rates.
We're like a gambler saying it's not their decision to bet their house on black that is the problem, but it's the fault of the bank refusing to give a mortgage while the wheel is spinning.
Need clarification of that last paragraph analogy pls.
The government placing a massive gamble on unfunded tax cuts with no OBR oversight = putting house on black.
The bond market losing faith in government and refusing to lend what they have asked for = the bank refusing to help finance the house that they just gambled with.
It's probably a bit of a rubbish analogy, but as someone who works in said bond market, unsurprisingly I had a very long day yesterday.
I think there is a need for bond yields and interest rates to return to historic norms, but there does need to be time for individuals, business and government to adapt. Doing that reversion by Christmas rather than 2025 is a problem.
You're arguing for boiling the frog with a relatively long period of rising rates which is surely also 'a problem'. There's no pain free way to do this.
Its a bit like dealing with the house price unaffordability issue. Say that a house price crash is needed, and people respond with 'that's terrible, people will face negative equity', then say that instead a period of high wage-led inflation is needed instead then, where wages outstrip house prices but without negative equity and people say 'that's terrible, inflation is awful'.
There are only terrible solutions. But the problems we have are just as bad if not worse, so we need to face up to some of them. If you have cancer, then you might think chemotherapy is unpleasant but still go through it anyway.
We need to find a way to eliminate our current account deficit, our fiscal deficit, grow the economy and get house prices back to say a 4x income multiple in London and a 3x income multiple in the rest of the country. There is no 'easy' way to do all that.
1. Don’t cut taxes 2. Invest in R&D to boost productivity 3. Build more houses
The government doesn't do most R&D though, firms do. They need a competitive tax environment to encourage that, so the antithesis of your point 1.
Your point 3 is completely correct of course.
UK companies invest relatively little compared to many overseas competitors.
I would argue that encouraging investment via tweaks to corporation tax were worth trying because 10+ years of low Corporation Tax hasn't solved the issue of low levels of investment and little productivity improvements.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
This was Dan Hodges last night
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible.
I am not sure he is right.
They already laid out their political defence. "We will do unpopular things. This is really unpopular. Must be working..."
The only way it can be reversed is if it is done by someone who isn't Kwasi
Hodges is wrong.
The poll tax was an issue because people were refusing to pay it en masse and the issue couldn't go away.
The mini budget has already happened. There is no lightning rod to rally around, they just need to keep calm and carry on.
If anyone wants to refuse to pay 40% and insist upon paying 45% instead then I'm sure the Treasury will be ok with that!
I am not sure you were alive during the poll tax furore, Bart. I was. The issue was all about a perceived lack of fairness. People absolutely hated it for that reason. It was withdrawn before non-payment became any kind of problem - except in Scotland, where it was imposed first.
I agree. The poll tax was not defeated by non-payment campaigns. It was defeated by the Tories losing one of their safest seats in the country to the Lib Dems in a by-election. i.e. It was the politics, not the underlying issue, that mattered.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
He’s lived his political life in a bubble, meaningfully interacting only with people who agree with him. It makes for very bad politics and politicians. Like Truss, he knows a certain Tory sweet spot - the one that tickles columnists for the Mail, Spectator and Telegraph, as well as a few thousand party members - but both are entirely cut-off from the real world. Corbynism is the exact equivalent on the left.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women......
Troll. Posts here according to Putin's script. Posts nothing else. You fool no-one.
Tbf that's not correct - Dynamo posts on all kinds of stuff, often interestingly. He's critical of Ukraine, but that's not an illegal view, and opposition to the invasion shouldn't mean we think Ukraine is perfect.
In general I think we should ease up on the witch-finding stuff whenever someone says anything that doesn't match the general view. We don't do it to Leon or MalcolmG or Bart when they rant in their different ways.
Are we underestimating the likelihood of a U turn on the "mini budget" ? It seems like the most probable political outcome, after which we just get a zombie government that stumbles on to the next election which it loses, badly.
This was Dan Hodges last night
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible.
I am not sure he is right.
They already laid out their political defence. "We will do unpopular things. This is really unpopular. Must be working..."
The only way it can be reversed is if it is done by someone who isn't Kwasi
Hodges is wrong.
The poll tax was an issue because people were refusing to pay it en masse and the issue couldn't go away.
The mini budget has already happened. There is no lightning rod to rally around, they just need to keep calm and carry on.
If anyone wants to refuse to pay 40% and insist upon paying 45% instead then I'm sure the Treasury will be ok with that!
I am not sure you were alive during the poll tax furore, Bart. I was. The issue was all about a perceived lack of fairness. People absolutely hated it for that reason. It was withdrawn before non-payment became any kind of problem - except in Scotland, where it was imposed first.
Absoluitely so. IN Scotland there was a treble issue of fairness -
1. Imposed soon after a troublesome revaluation - should have been done in England first (no revaluation there for much longer). 2. Imposed on the poor and rich alike at same level. 3. Imposed by a party which had failed to win in Scotland.
Hence the toxicity, and the major sea change which led to Blair bringing in devolution to avert worse from his p. of v.
This squirrel knows who the good guys are in Ukraine.
What a brilliant video 😂
This adorable squirrel took a shine at the Ukrainian army, creating a moment of hilarious joy watching him making friends, rather than running away scared 🤣
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
It's not a real crisis though. It's just been manufactured by the most imposing moment of madness since Ron Davies went badger watching on Hampstead Heath.
Yes, it's a totally Kwasi crisis.
Badgers were beside the M4, and it was Clapham Common for walkies surely.
Ah, yes, I knew it was some random place in London.
Or perhaps that should be, some Randy place in London.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
Without wishing to sound like Stuart, it is not likely they will win many seats in Scotland at the moment. They would be better off targeting seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands.
A rising tide lifts all ships. If they're looking like getting a majority, they'll make gains in Scotland too.
Labour aren't rising. The Tories are going down the drain.
I think that's wrong tbh. Yes the Tories are spectacularly self-destructing but alongside that Starmer has quietly, boringly, moved Labour to the centre.
If Corbyn were still in charge we'd be seeing Con, Lab and LD all on about 27% right now.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
This squirrel knows who the good guys are in Ukraine.
What a brilliant video 😂
This adorable squirrel took a shine at the Ukrainian army, creating a moment of hilarious joy watching him making friends, rather than running away scared 🤣
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
Trouble is, it's against Labour policy and party rules to advocate tactical voting. Despite what Slab sometimes likes to advocate.
This probably justifies another airing of Mr Murray reportedly saying in an interview with the Grauniad in 2017 that *his* local Tories should vote for him to keep the SNP out, and in *other* constituencies Labour voters should vote Tory etc to etc. Whether he, and/or the journo, had been on the electric juice or something, I don't know, but it wouldn't exactly be the fraternal thing to urge, would it?
The interview has proved , erm, difficult to find on the Graun website. But fortunately a record survives elsewhere.
'"JEREMY Corbyn’s first big day of the election campaign was undermined after his only MP in Scotland seemingly told voters to back the Tories. According to The Guardian, Ian Murray has begged Tory voters for support in his marginal Edinburgh South seat in exchange for Labour backing Tory candidates standing against SNP MPs.
Murray supposedly told the paper he supported tactical voting to defeat the SNP, but said that meant Tory and LibDem voters had to switch sides, too, if their primary objective was to block the SNP.
“If people are saying we want to protect the Union, the candidate in the best position is me,” he said of his constituency in the capital where he defeated the SNP’s Neil Hay by 2600 votes in 2015.
He later distanced himself from the paper’s report, saying he was merely “suggesting people vote Labour in both Edinburgh South and across Scotland”.'
Scottish Labour, working with SCons all over Scotland and nodding & winking tactical voting for them, but still the only party that can beat the Tories. A cunning plan if only they can find enough voters whose heads zip up the back.
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
By my reckoning it's just Barty, William and LuckyGuy still holding the Tory line, with a few more (Sandpit?) keeping counsel and hoping against hope that Truss is somehow going defeat logic with her madness.
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
The energy stuff was needed and helping ordinary Brits. Absolubtely noone was asking for the 45% cut. It seems to have been at least partly responsible for the signalling to the markets that Kwarteng wasn't serious about balancing the books so the cost (Via Gov't debt) is now A LOT more than £2B.
He also made those very Ill-advised comments over the weekend that gave the impression this was just the start of the tax cutting/borrowing jamboree. As a Chancellor who has just presided over a radical budget your mood messaging to the markets needs to be downplay just how radical you are. I don’t think this helped and this is a failure of proper briefing/getting the proper briefing and negligently ignoring it.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
It's not a real crisis though. It's just been manufactured by the most imposing moment of madness since Ron Davies went badger watching on Hampstead Heath.
Yes, it's a totally Kwasi crisis.
Badgers were beside the M4, and it was Clapham Common for walkies surely.
Ah, yes, I knew it was some random place in London.
Or perhaps that should be, some Randy place in London.
Are you implying the Mini Budget is so bad Kwartang could also wind up as a Plaid Cymru Councillor for Caerphilly County Council? Surely there's bad, and there's Ron Davies bad.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
Without wishing to sound like Stuart, it is not likely they will win many seats in Scotland at the moment. They would be better off targeting seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands.
A rising tide lifts all ships. If they're looking like getting a majority, they'll make gains in Scotland too.
Labour aren't rising. The Tories are going down the drain.
Labour are rising. Two recent polls on 45% - including YouGov last night.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
After much huffing and puffing, looking at diagrams and more misses than hits, SKS Labour has finally found the English clitoris (largely because the soon to be ex has lost their touch, but that’s by the by); I suggested that should have been the plan at least a couple of years ago. That’s just as well because judging by the whiny, angry rants re the SNP at the Lab conference this week, they’re as far away from locating the Scottish pleasure button as ever.
There's also the point that Slab have to attack the SNP (rather more social democratic, pro-indy), SLD (a little more right wing and unionist) and ScoTories (probably conservative, and certainly right wing unionist-nationalist). Difficult to do all at the same time AND sound like the same party which is pleasuring the southern taste (if that is the right word) under SKS. And IIRC most of the weaker SNP seats are not SNP-Slab fights, or am I misremembering?
Pretty much the case, hence recurring plaintive bleats about Unionist tactical voting coalitions and super Yoon Ian Murray from HYUFD.
In the top 29 Labour target seats held by the SNP, the combined Labour, Conservative and LD vote is more than the SNP vote
As a Conservative would you tactically vote Labour? No, I thought not.
For me in Scotland I would most definitely vote labour if it meant the SNP lost the seat
Whereas I am - unless things change - likely to vote SNP to remove the fawning lickspittle David Duguid. The SNP can huff and puff all they like about independence, its a distraction. Especially when there are growing issues to which their excuse and solution is "independence".
They remind me a lot of Teesside Labour. "Things are crap. Blame the Tories. Can't do anything. Blame the Tories". And look how that worked out in the end. But lets be very clear - however bad some of the SNP are, they are clearly the better option compared to Truss and that tosser Duguid.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
You can only be measured against your opponents. SKS might be a boring grey man, but he's shining and outclassing Truss on every measure.
The shooter who murdered at least 11 children and four adults yesterday in Izhevsk, Udmurtia, is said to have had a swastika on his t-shirt. This symbol appears in at least one still photo, in red on a black shirt, counterclockwise and looking handpainted. (The Nazis generally used a clockwise version.) Dunno whether there's any footage of it being on his shirt when he entered the building.
I fear more incidents of this kind.
The FSB really are c***s in a way that many on the British right who enjoy going on about them have little clue about.
See the Moscow apartment block bombings of 1999 for reference.
Putin has used the Russian new-Nazi movement and then embraced it. At first he used the actually Nazis (The ones who say they are Nazis on camera, proudly) as head breakers against anti-government demos and the like. Then he embraced the politics of Dugin etc.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
Interesting point of order - Alastair Campbell is not a member of the Labour party. He was expelled for publicly saying he voted LibDem in a Euro election - gleefully expelled during the dying months of the Corbynite era.
The rule book dictates that he is ineligible for membership - whilst I am sure a work-around could be found to bring him in, both he and Starmer appear to be following the rules. Perhaps being an external consultant suits both sides?
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
The men in grey suits don't need to replace Truss if they can force her to sack Kwasi.
If Rishi was chancellor he would effectively be driving policy for the next 2 years
I very much doubt if he would agree to return to the Treasury under Truss. He has too many fundamental points of disagreement with her. Moreover, for that reason she would probably resign rather than appoint him.
Come back to my question earlier
Does she want to be PM, or does she want to do batshit crazy things.
I think she wants to be PM
Cutting taxes from a 74 year high isn't batshit crazy.
The fact some critics act like it is, is a battle that needs to be won.
You’re someone who believes greatly in the wisdom of the markets. Well, the markets say that Kwarteng’s budget was a disaster.
Correction - I'm big believer in the market economy, not 'markets'.
Or to put it another way, I'm a big believer in evolution.
I believe that a market economy allows chaos and instability to lead to creative destruction, survival of the fittest and ultimately progress as a result.
I believe that too much 'stability' leads to getting stale and stagnant.
In that way, I'm the antithesis of a classical small-c 'conservative' which I've never pretended to be.
Comments
https://twitter.com/AuthorConfusion/status/1571149324096278528/photo/1
Kwasi Kwarteng set for crisis meeting with bankers after pound plunges https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/kwasi-kwarteng-crisis-bankers-pound-government-bonds
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1574661267381436416
What’s daunting is how long it might take to reverse the economic damage done in last few days, even if there’s a change of govt. burden of debt + the impression we’ve become a basket case don’t just magically vanish.
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574662216602771457
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
But, at least the government eventually saw reason and stopped fighting a losing battle. I'm not sure what would make the current lot change course.
The poll tax was an issue because people were refusing to pay it en masse and the issue couldn't go away.
The mini budget has already happened. There is no lightning rod to rally around, they just need to keep calm and carry on.
If anyone wants to refuse to pay 40% and insist upon paying 45% instead then I'm sure the Treasury will be ok with that!
Interesting to see a few Tory MPs liking Gavin Barwells about Sunak being “right”. Seems like a lot of anger swilling around
She won’t be able to run a government. She won’t be able to whip them.
You can mount an argument to cut the basic rate without people getting upset. You can also mount a decent argument to cut the higher rate, on the basis that there are a decent chunk of above-average earners who would be affected, or some people hoping for a pay rise soon that would take them into that bracket who would be encouraged by it.
The issue comes that the supplementary rate (or whatever they call it nowadays) is so far removed from the earnings potential of so much of the country that it really does feel like it only benefits the 1%. The man on the street and even the aspirational professional in the regions, probably doesn’t see much of a route to them ever earning £150k. Maybe that is a bit different in London, but it can surely only be affecting those who work in big legal/financial services or management.
Honestly I think if they’d avoided the 45p slip up they’d be in a much better position with the public now. As it is it could be like the 10p and the poll tax and really serve as a millstone, no matter what they try to do to recover the situation.
Was it because Conservative MPs and members bought in to her plans?
Or was it because Rishi had been mean to Boris and Penny was too woke?
I wonder if Kwasi's "not a budget" becomes a confidence motion in him alone.
If backbenchers vote it down Truss can sack him and "move on"...
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574666097755824128
https://twitter.com/lhsummers/status/1574586690869641216?s=21&t=0Cr3aSmv8dhnGdZSUAEwkg
Kwasi Kwarteng may be Britain’s most intellectually gifted chancellor since Gordon Brown. He is certainly the oddest
https://econ.st/3LGBH6M
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
Sterling chaos is a lesson for those who believe indy Scottish currency would get the benefit of the doubt from the markets. This is what they do to their mates.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1574661841539592192
'It now costs the UK govt more to borrow [for] 10 years than Italy or Greece, which we've traditionally thought of as weaker sovereign entities'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1574667791885647873
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chaos-at-centre-of-trussonomics-prgtmmlcd
After Danish authorities confirmed last night that Nord Stream 2 is leaking gas into the Baltic Sea (Danish waters), Sweden now confirms that Nord Stream 1 is also leaking gas into Swedish waters.
German gov. sources talk about “a targeted attack”.
CEE warned you…
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1574661449628061696
While gas may not be flowing the pipelines need to remain pressurised in order to re-open - if not, flooding or collapse may follow.
Have I got that right?
Again, the crises in the markets aren't because the government is cutting this tax, it's because they went and sold it as a measure that would bring a lot of extra growth and eventually a self funded tax cut. It's a statement that had no credibility and has everyone wondering whether Kwasi has actually got a grip on reality.
In general I think we should ease up on the witch-finding stuff whenever someone says anything that doesn't match the general view. We don't do it to Leon or MalcolmG or Bart when they rant in their different ways.
But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
Former Prime Minister Abe's longstanding warm friendship with the United Kingdom remains an enduring legacy in the close friendship between Japan and the United Kingdom today.
This probably justifies another airing of Mr Murray reportedly saying in an interview with the Grauniad in 2017 that *his* local Tories should vote for him to keep the SNP out, and in *other* constituencies Labour voters should vote Tory etc to etc. Whether he, and/or the journo, had been on the electric juice or something, I don't know, but it wouldn't exactly be the fraternal thing to urge, would it?
The interview has proved , erm, difficult to find on the Graun website. But fortunately a record survives elsewhere.
'"JEREMY Corbyn’s first big day of the election campaign was undermined after his only MP in Scotland seemingly told voters to back the Tories. According to The Guardian, Ian Murray has begged Tory voters for support in his marginal Edinburgh South seat in exchange for Labour backing Tory candidates standing against SNP MPs.
Murray supposedly told the paper he supported tactical voting to defeat the SNP, but said that meant Tory and LibDem voters had to switch sides, too, if their primary objective was to block the SNP.
“If people are saying we want to protect the Union, the candidate in the best position is me,” he said of his constituency in the capital where he defeated the SNP’s Neil Hay by 2600 votes in 2015.
He later distanced himself from the paper’s report, saying he was merely “suggesting people vote Labour in both Edinburgh South and across Scotland”.'
https://www.thenational.scot/news/15236862.ian-murray-backs-tactical-voting-for-tories-to-keep-snp-out/
I never thought I'd see that play out for an incoming Conservative administration.
Yes, it's a totally Kwasi crisis.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1574669280024535041
Your point 3 is completely correct of course.
I would argue that encouraging investment via tweaks to corporation tax were worth trying because 10+ years of low Corporation Tax hasn't solved the issue of low levels of investment and little productivity improvements.
i.e. It was the politics, not the underlying issue, that mattered.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
1. Imposed soon after a troublesome revaluation - should have been done in England first (no revaluation there for much longer).
2. Imposed on the poor and rich alike at same level.
3. Imposed by a party which had failed to win in Scotland.
Hence the toxicity, and the major sea change which led to Blair bringing in devolution to avert worse from his p. of v.
What a brilliant video 😂
This adorable squirrel took a shine at the Ukrainian army, creating a moment of hilarious joy watching him making friends, rather than running away scared 🤣
Someone, quick, make him a mascot 🇺🇦🐿 💙💛
Soldiers were in great spirits after 😄
https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1574445787576008722
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
Turns out being intelligent doesn't mean you're smart. He left a trail of muddy footprints from the crime scene to his front door.
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Or perhaps that should be, some Randy place in London.
If Corbyn were still in charge we'd be seeing Con, Lab and LD all on about 27% right now.
Boris Johnson at 12.5 for next PM ???
Starmer at 1.91 ?!!
Starmer + 109.86
Boris -736.02
Field +1.48
Can't work out why Starmer is being offered so cheap and Boris is way too short. If Boris returns it'll be after a GE defeat.
They remind me a lot of Teesside Labour. "Things are crap. Blame the Tories. Can't do anything. Blame the Tories". And look how that worked out in the end. But lets be very clear - however bad some of the SNP are, they are clearly the better option compared to Truss and that tosser Duguid.
And who can forget this rum blossom?
The rule book dictates that he is ineligible for membership - whilst I am sure a work-around could be found to bring him in, both he and Starmer appear to be following the rules. Perhaps being an external consultant suits both sides?
Which Premier League football clubs are going to be treated like TSE's favourite, self employed port facility service workers?
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
Or to put it another way, I'm a big believer in evolution.
I believe that a market economy allows chaos and instability to lead to creative destruction, survival of the fittest and ultimately progress as a result.
I believe that too much 'stability' leads to getting stale and stagnant.
In that way, I'm the antithesis of a classical small-c 'conservative' which I've never pretended to be.